Bitcoin Forum

The price of bitcoin recently had been struggling to climb above $40000 while resistance recently has been around $36000 recently, but what I read today was amazing but yet not known if this will effectively result to bull market, but this is just an indication of bull market as bitcoin holders are accumulating already, that is why the supply on exchanges has been diminishing, which means people that will sell Bitcoin will not be many as Bitcoin users are moving bitcoin to wallet. The inflow and outflow of Bitcoin on exchanges has significantly be an indication of where the prices is trending to while exchange inflow indicates holders want to sell which will later result to decrease in Bitcoin price, while Bitcoin exchange outflow in which holders will send their Bitcoin to wallet has been an indication that selling rate will decrease and get below the buying rate, leading to bitcoin price increase.

https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1411971284448202755

It is clear that bitcoin holders are now accumulating which will make bitcoin price not to plummet, but the question is, will bitcoin price increase as people are expecting? Although, I believe even if the price of bitcoin will not increase so much, the price is also neither will decrease for now as the exchange total supply supply hits its six months low.

Low supply can mean greater volatility. It doesn't have to be volatility to the up side, at least short term.

In the long run though it should mean higher price because sooner or later someone will want to buy a lot of coins and we all know that most orders are packed near the current price. When you break 20% above or below it you enter either a crazy rally up or a free fall down. Decreasing supply means decreasing sell pressure, so if nothing changes in the next 6 months we could see a winter rally to 100 thousand.

I have a theory as to how that might make sense.  Trading is a zero-sum game.  For every winner, there is a loser.  Over time, the sensible traders gradually gain BTC from the reckless traders.  And it's the sensible traders who are more likely to withdraw their surplus funds to a place where they hold the private keys.

Also heads up for some people who are thinking about
Low supply of Bitcoin on exchanges = Price of Bitcoin will pump.

At first, before I am thinking that it will always pump the price of Bitcoin if the supply of Bitcoin to every exchange continue dropping.
But what I can say is NOT ALL OF THE TIME. Some people thinking that "Supply on exchanges dropping, it means no one wants to sell Bitcoin".

We are all hoping that this situation can mean that soon the price of Bitcoin can go up...and maybe can start a new bull run season when we can see BTC achieving a new ATH. of course, for now that can just be  wishful thinking but who knows...if there is one thing that is really full of surprises it must be our beloved Bitcoin. There is a possibility that this diminishing supply in exchanges can mean that more and more buyers are taking their Bitcoin into their privately-controlled wallet and this accumulation stage can be over soon resulting into upsurge movement of Bitcoin. Will it happen that way? i can only guess but I am hoping that it will.

I would interpret this in a positive yet logical way. If the supply is dwindling, it logically means the sell pressure is also decreasing. Nobody send out their Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. It is not the way it works. Bitcoin is deposited where it could be sold precisely in order to sell it. Now if the supply being sold is going down and supposing the demand is not going down with it, the price will definitely rise. I am seeing this figure as a sort of a cue that there is indeed some nice green candles in the days or weeks to come.

I'd have to question the data that's backing this up before actually commenting on it. For example, what exchanges are included, is the new decline an indication or either new exchanges taking some of the volume or are more people looking to use peer to peer exchanges, which probably aren't going to be included in a metric like this?

There's too many factors to consider, to be able to accurately determine what direction the price will go.

They are simply looking at known addresses and cold wallets, and they create those stats based on the inflow and outflow.
I've always taken those with a lot of grains of salt because I remember how hard it was for all those analytics companies to finally track the gox coins or how hard is for them to label those coins Coinbase pro has, there are 1 million of them yet nobody has tagged them where they are. There are so many exchanges popping up, a lot of them change their hot wallets, a lot of them deal with OTC customers, it's pretty hard to look at that graph and say for certain, that's how it is.!

What about the "coins" people have on Paypal or Revolut, for example, how are those classified and where would they stand in a statistic?

Anyhow...
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-balances-2-year-low-bullish-sign
The last time it worked, let's see if it will happen again..
The offer might be low, but is the demand there?

Just like @stompix said, there's no way of accurately track the validity of the data being provided by the guys at Sanbase. For all we know, these could be exchanges moving funds from their hot wallets to cold wallets and might have nothing to do with people moving their funds into their personal wallets. Even if it is, it's neither a bullish or bearish sign only that more people are holding long term and switched off short term selling windows. In spite of the tug of war between Bitcoin Bulls vs Bears, the 6 months TF candle on Bitcoin closed as a shooting star which is a bearish candlestick.

It is also worth to add that now futures volume is dozen times bigger than spot exchange volume. It was not like that before 2018.

https://i.imgur.com/UuixwLS.png

Its like 10x bigger volume. So i dont believe in "miners are not selling" or "1k+ BTC whales are not selling" only because they are not moving coins. It is possible that big farms already hedged whole 2021-2022 supply that they plan to mine in this year's with big short position at 60k. We don't know that. Same with whales. With 10 times bigger volume on futures and 1-10k BTC to dump i would rather open big short position using futures without moving price and than move my coins and close hedge.

There is a lot of reasons why the supply decreases. Sure there are companies like Tesla which buy billions and which are going to be held in cold storage. But there are other reasons.

Like what was mentioned above. Some retail newbie might lose their BTC due to whales and the whales withdraw those profits into cold storage.

Another reason is people have hardware wallets these days and are worried about security on exchanges and withdraw them. Especially since price hit $64K at one point. So if you had 1 BTC and before it was worth $10000 you might of not cared as much as it’s worth $34K now and decide to buy a $100 hardware wallet to protect yourself.

Another way of looking at it is that price has been failing to go any lower than the strong support at $30k. That is despite a lot of dump attempts!

There has been a strong accumulation taking place but that is not why the "balance" on exchanges is decreasing. It is simply because people deposit their bitcoins on exchanges to trade with those coins. If the price is not making any moves that could give them profit they will simply stop trading and since exchanges are risky by nature they don't leave their coins there. Withdrawing from exchanges like this decreases their balance (or supply on exchange if you like to call it that).

In fact if you look at the shitcoin market the "balance" there is increasing because the only time shitcoins can get pumped is when bitcoin price is stable, hence traders moving there for profit.

This part makes no sense to me because you don't buy bitcoin from the exchange or sell it to the exchange. The exchange is just a platform where users meet to trade with each other which means if you buy 1 bitcoin someone has to have sold 1 bitcoin (zero sum game).

Yeah but Tesla isn't going to an exchange and buying up orders. They're probably all buying in staggered orders on OTC brokers. You simply don't go to an exchange and ask them for BTC off their order books, that just crashes the market and gives them all kinds of slippage loss.

It's just less people keeping on exchanges, which is the trend that will only keep stronger, people finally wisen up to exchange "hacks":)

All companies buy through OTC, thus ensuring that transactions are private, and do not affect the price - and when they want to affect the price, then publicly announce that they have invested in BTC. However, people overestimate the investment by T, because it is approximately 40 000 BTC, while MicroStrategy has bought more than twice as much and still continues to buy.

What we don't know is how big the OTC market really is, and it's assumed that it may be larger than what we see on crypto exchanges - which again show the data the way they want it - and not necessarily the way they really are. In the past, Chinese crypto exchanges faked volumes as part of their business strategy to show how liquid they are, and does anyone suspect that not all other crypto exchanges do that today?

I agree with this, on the short term this is going to produce unpredictable results as this just increases the volatility of the market, but over the long term this is great news as people are holding their coins despite the decrease in the price, the few remaining weak hands are getting out of the market and the fundamentals of bitcoin improved, this over the long term can only mean one thing and that is the price will go up once again.

Frustrating price action at the moment but I think we’re going to have a violent price move in the next 2 weeks, I just hope that it’s up.

This is how I understand it also, like the OP that supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is an
indication of a Bearish or Bullish trend.

I believe just before the price drop from $65k there were a lot of Bitcoin on various
exchanges which would signal preparation to sell.

Here is another screeshot which shows the exchange in and ouflows over the last few months.
Its clear there is less exchange inflow over the last 2 to 3 weeks. Its also interesting to
see the timing of both in and outflows.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-quXvg088THA/YOzIOpk9FYI/AAAAAAAAAtg/ZlxqN1hdGPk9cuaWauyQRFWaCkKdzpWyACNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h398/CaptureCQ.JPG

To be honest, I really do not think that the price of bitcoin right now can be said as something that is about to break out. Mathematically, I can even see bitcoin going down to $27k-$30k range and although just an educated guess, it is better than the overly immersed in fairytale shillers that still claim that bitcoin will reach 300k within this year.

Although I am not entirely ruling out possibilities since we have already seen how unpredictable the market of this industry can be over the years, I just can't completely disregard the fact that there are also so many variables that can be present when determining price direction of the market and as fast as it can grow, it can crash even faster just as what happened in the past and in the earlier months of this year.

- Which is why I am really against blind shilling that may affect other people's judgement(newbies) and make them lose tons of money because not only do I pity those people, but it can also tarnish the reputation of this industry in the long run which regulators can use to further pin down crypto enthusiasts all over the world. So although I am saying this is not a financial advice, I hope people won't go all in yet at least until we get out of the bearish cycle.

Yeah, so the point I was getting at is that Tesla buying all that isn't going to affect supply on exchanges since they all buy OTC, so it's not really relevant to the main point of exchange supply:) UNLESS OTCs themselves also feed off exchanges (and some exchange OTCs seem to). I definitely know all exchanges still play along with stats. And why wouldn't they right?:) When they've gotten caught and not punished.

They all play very wisely and take advantage of all the opportunities offered by the crypto market, and we all know that those who have the most make the most money. I think we are still far from the fact that the shortage of BTC on exchanges will cause a price increase, because although to some maybe 18.75 million BTC in the current circulation may seem very little looking at the big picture, the fact is that we have millions of BTC available for sale, in one way or another.

Therefore, all this data from crypto exchanges can be considered quite irrelevant given that they are quite unreliable - and on the other hand we see that the real trade takes place far from our eyes.

Definitely a bullish indicator.

Investors aren't like years before where they panic sell straight away when prices go down. The market has matured significantly and institutional investors are much more likely to hold onto their existing positions in times of a bear market.

The actual float of BTC on exchanges is bound to be reduced as a result. I'd estimate it to be no more than 500k coins at any given time.

Definitely expect prices to be a lot more resilient this time round, especially after people have seen the halving cycles go on and on for years now.

we hope for this part but i don't think that bitcoin market is there yet. it was evident from the recent 50% drop from $60k that there are still a lot of panic sellers who run away at the first sight of FUD and they also believe everything they are told.
the reason why price isn't going any lower is because those panic sellers haven't bought back so there is nobody left to manipulate into selling.

I believe accumulating and low volume does cause the whales to manipulate the market very easily. How? Well low supply means there are not that many bitcoins out in the market, which means there are less people buying and selling and there are less room for big moves, when some whale sells a ton of bitcoin that drops the price very quickly, or they could buy a bunch of bitcoin and increase it very quickly.

So, what can they do? They could drop the price a lot, accumulate even more, then increase it right back up all thanks to them being able to do it with a lot of money due to low volume available. That is why we should not be worried about all the big moves that could happen these days, do not be fooled by the whales making fake moves because all those big moves are usually because of them and I do not think that they should be that much cared.

               There are a lot of people that gets confused by this. Just because the supply of bitcoin on exchanges goes lower than usual, it doesn't mean that the prices are already bound to skyrocket(at least not immediately) since supply and demand does not apply well in this situation specially when we talk about short term. I believe there are far too many variables to look at before we can predict where the price is heading. Even watching the market all the time while making dozens of TAs every 15 mins to an hour or four can't give 100% accurate predictions but only slightly better educated guesses, what more just simple assumptions? This is just my personal point of view.

I agree. Also, there is a possibility that less number of coins are being moved to the exchanges because the demand within the exchanges is low. And with thousands of DEX sites and P2P platforms in existence, it doesn't make any sense to claim that the volumes are falling just by looking at the data form a few of these mainstream exchanges. One thing I have noticed is that these sort of arguments surface everytime when the prices are dipping and BTC is going through a bearish phase. Personally I don't think that there is any direct connection between the two.

Indeed, you make money with money, and if you don't have enough, you can't make enough. But yeah, I really don't think there is any severe shortage that makes price go up because these prices aren't yet enough to make people go and say buy. Still probably more selling than buying right now, everyone is in a wait and see mode and the bulls are more than happy to be patient and wait.

This means that there are less bitcoins to be able to get traded and that is creating high volatility and we have seen the result of high volatility right now, like how we moved from 30k to 40k constantly, and that is why having high volatility is a big problem and that is why we should not be focusing on the price right now, we should be focusing on the volatility.

As long as the volatility is a huge problem that means we should not be caring for price on the sole reason that the price is not real, it can move 5k in a single day because of low liquidity available and that causes prices to be never really what it is, it can change in a second. I personally do not care what the price is because I believe we know what we are doing at the current situation and caring about the price is not one of them, we know that it could drop a lot more or increase a lot more and that is why I only focus on accumulating even more.

True, but at the same time the reduction on the number of coins available on exchanges increases the volatility, after all the ones that are buying and selling are the main culprits for the variations of the price while holders at best are just buying and sometimes they do not do even that, and when we add the huge levels of leverage that traders use then this gives the speculators even higher strength than what they would have otherwise creating crashes and corrections they could not create otherwise.

yeah accumulation is happening and the $30,000s range we've seen the past like 8 weeks or whatever is most likely the bottom. Of course the floating supply on exchanges at any time can pump or crash the price at any point regardless of what medium term trends (like low exchange supply) show. But this shows the momentum will eventually shift back to pushing the price up in the not too distant future, but it may still take a couple more months before that momentum builds to a point where it is overpowering the sellers who think we're at the start of a crypto winter. Good signs though, it's just a waiting game until the rest of the market picks up on what is going on and the market moves from accumulation to appreciation. I'd target September as the month when price breaks back over the $40k region and starts going up again. Until then for those with money it's a game of accumulating as much as you can in the $30,000s.

I'm curious about why you think that this sideway trend should be the longest trend in bitcoin history and last almost 6 months?
The last biggest one that we had was at the bottom of the biggest bitcoin bubble burst back in 2018 when price was stuck in $3k range for less than 4 months. In comparison we weren't even in a bubble to burst this hard and lead to a bear market for the accumulation to last 6 months. In fact the drop itself only took 7 days!!! The past 3 months price has been stuck going sideways.

I just remembered I created this thread at the beginning of last month, explaining how it is possible Bitcoin will not hit lower price but possible to increase, it all happened the way I predicted. I have noticed about the exchange inflow and outflow to affect Bitcoin price. Like I predicted that time, based on decrease in exchange infow that reached 6 months low. This may not be the only factor responsible for the price increase, but I have noticed if there is decrease in exchange inflow from noncustododial wallet and also increase in exchange outflow into wallets, this resulted to bull run three consecutive times now that I know of.

Funny enough, I have also used this to predict the next momentum of the Bitcoin market but to get the maximum result I will advise including the level of mining difficulty and some news that will influence the market.