magneto
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July 13, 2021, 12:58:31 PM |
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Definitely a bullish indicator.
Investors aren't like years before where they panic sell straight away when prices go down. The market has matured significantly and institutional investors are much more likely to hold onto their existing positions in times of a bear market.
The actual float of BTC on exchanges is bound to be reduced as a result. I'd estimate it to be no more than 500k coins at any given time.
Definitely expect prices to be a lot more resilient this time round, especially after people have seen the halving cycles go on and on for years now.
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BrewMaster
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July 13, 2021, 01:43:39 PM |
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Investors aren't like years before where they panic sell straight away when prices go down. The market has matured significantly
we hope for this part but i don't think that bitcoin market is there yet. it was evident from the recent 50% drop from $60k that there are still a lot of panic sellers who run away at the first sight of FUD and they also believe everything they are told. the reason why price isn't going any lower is because those panic sellers haven't bought back so there is nobody left to manipulate into selling.
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There is a FOMO brewing...
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el kaka22
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July 13, 2021, 06:38:34 PM |
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I believe accumulating and low volume does cause the whales to manipulate the market very easily. How? Well low supply means there are not that many bitcoins out in the market, which means there are less people buying and selling and there are less room for big moves, when some whale sells a ton of bitcoin that drops the price very quickly, or they could buy a bunch of bitcoin and increase it very quickly.
So, what can they do? They could drop the price a lot, accumulate even more, then increase it right back up all thanks to them being able to do it with a lot of money due to low volume available. That is why we should not be worried about all the big moves that could happen these days, do not be fooled by the whales making fake moves because all those big moves are usually because of them and I do not think that they should be that much cared.
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evilgreed
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July 13, 2021, 07:57:30 PM |
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There are a lot of people that gets confused by this. Just because the supply of bitcoin on exchanges goes lower than usual, it doesn't mean that the prices are already bound to skyrocket(at least not immediately) since supply and demand does not apply well in this situation specially when we talk about short term. I believe there are far too many variables to look at before we can predict where the price is heading. Even watching the market all the time while making dozens of TAs every 15 mins to an hour or four can't give 100% accurate predictions but only slightly better educated guesses, what more just simple assumptions? This is just my personal point of view.
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Sithara007
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July 14, 2021, 04:21:46 AM |
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There are a lot of people that gets confused by this. Just because the supply of bitcoin on exchanges goes lower than usual, it doesn't mean that the prices are already bound to skyrocket(at least not immediately) since supply and demand does not apply well in this situation specially when we talk about short term. I believe there are far too many variables to look at before we can predict where the price is heading. Even watching the market all the time while making dozens of TAs every 15 mins to an hour or four can't give 100% accurate predictions but only slightly better educated guesses, what more just simple assumptions? This is just my personal point of view.
I agree. Also, there is a possibility that less number of coins are being moved to the exchanges because the demand within the exchanges is low. And with thousands of DEX sites and P2P platforms in existence, it doesn't make any sense to claim that the volumes are falling just by looking at the data form a few of these mainstream exchanges. One thing I have noticed is that these sort of arguments surface everytime when the prices are dipping and BTC is going through a bearish phase. Personally I don't think that there is any direct connection between the two.
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slaman29
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July 14, 2021, 10:06:41 AM |
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~snip~
They all play very wisely and take advantage of all the opportunities offered by the crypto market, and we all know that those who have the most make the most money. I think we are still far from the fact that the shortage of BTC on exchanges will cause a price increase, because although to some maybe 18.75 million BTC in the current circulation may seem very little looking at the big picture, the fact is that we have millions of BTC available for sale, in one way or another. Therefore, all this data from crypto exchanges can be considered quite irrelevant given that they are quite unreliable - and on the other hand we see that the real trade takes place far from our eyes. Indeed, you make money with money, and if you don't have enough, you can't make enough. But yeah, I really don't think there is any severe shortage that makes price go up because these prices aren't yet enough to make people go and say buy. Still probably more selling than buying right now, everyone is in a wait and see mode and the bulls are more than happy to be patient and wait.
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tygeade
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July 14, 2021, 09:55:08 PM |
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This means that there are less bitcoins to be able to get traded and that is creating high volatility and we have seen the result of high volatility right now, like how we moved from 30k to 40k constantly, and that is why having high volatility is a big problem and that is why we should not be focusing on the price right now, we should be focusing on the volatility.
As long as the volatility is a huge problem that means we should not be caring for price on the sole reason that the price is not real, it can move 5k in a single day because of low liquidity available and that causes prices to be never really what it is, it can change in a second. I personally do not care what the price is because I believe we know what we are doing at the current situation and caring about the price is not one of them, we know that it could drop a lot more or increase a lot more and that is why I only focus on accumulating even more.
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Silberman
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July 15, 2021, 09:05:25 PM |
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Investors aren't like years before where they panic sell straight away when prices go down. The market has matured significantly
we hope for this part but i don't think that bitcoin market is there yet. it was evident from the recent 50% drop from $60k that there are still a lot of panic sellers who run away at the first sight of FUD and they also believe everything they are told. the reason why price isn't going any lower is because those panic sellers haven't bought back so there is nobody left to manipulate into selling. True, but at the same time the reduction on the number of coins available on exchanges increases the volatility, after all the ones that are buying and selling are the main culprits for the variations of the price while holders at best are just buying and sometimes they do not do even that, and when we add the huge levels of leverage that traders use then this gives the speculators even higher strength than what they would have otherwise creating crashes and corrections they could not create otherwise.
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thecodebear
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July 16, 2021, 03:03:04 AM |
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yeah accumulation is happening and the $30,000s range we've seen the past like 8 weeks or whatever is most likely the bottom. Of course the floating supply on exchanges at any time can pump or crash the price at any point regardless of what medium term trends (like low exchange supply) show. But this shows the momentum will eventually shift back to pushing the price up in the not too distant future, but it may still take a couple more months before that momentum builds to a point where it is overpowering the sellers who think we're at the start of a crypto winter. Good signs though, it's just a waiting game until the rest of the market picks up on what is going on and the market moves from accumulation to appreciation. I'd target September as the month when price breaks back over the $40k region and starts going up again. Until then for those with money it's a game of accumulating as much as you can in the $30,000s.
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pooya87
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July 16, 2021, 04:53:23 AM |
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I'd target September as the month when price breaks back over the $40k region and starts going up again.
I'm curious about why you think that this sideway trend should be the longest trend in bitcoin history and last almost 6 months? The last biggest one that we had was at the bottom of the biggest bitcoin bubble burst back in 2018 when price was stuck in $3k range for less than 4 months. In comparison we weren't even in a bubble to burst this hard and lead to a bear market for the accumulation to last 6 months. In fact the drop itself only took 7 days!!! The past 3 months price has been stuck going sideways.
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Charles-Tim (OP)
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August 14, 2021, 12:37:58 PM |
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I just remembered I created this thread at the beginning of last month, explaining how it is possible Bitcoin will not hit lower price but possible to increase, it all happened the way I predicted. I have noticed about the exchange inflow and outflow to affect Bitcoin price. Like I predicted that time, based on decrease in exchange infow that reached 6 months low. This may not be the only factor responsible for the price increase, but I have noticed if there is decrease in exchange inflow from noncustododial wallet and also increase in exchange outflow into wallets, this resulted to bull run three consecutive times now that I know of.
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Myleschetty
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August 14, 2021, 03:08:19 PM |
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I just remembered I created this thread at the beginning of last month, explaining how it is possible Bitcoin will not hit lower price but possible to increase, it all happened the way I predicted. I have noticed about the exchange inflow and outflow to affect Bitcoin price. Like I predicted that time, based on decrease in exchange infow that reached 6 months low. This may not be the only factor responsible for the price increase, but I have noticed if there is decrease in exchange inflow from noncustododial wallet and also increase in exchange outflow into wallets, this resulted to bull run three consecutive times now that I know of.
Funny enough, I have also used this to predict the next momentum of the Bitcoin market but to get the maximum result I will advise including the level of mining difficulty and some news that will influence the market.
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