Bitcoin Forum

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2017 forecast (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg29718211#msg29718211) - with explanation of how post-Gox played out

2020 Revised forecast (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg53724023#msg53724023) - with explanation of how each ATH must retest previous before next rally can begin.

Tether BS in FT (https://www.ft.com/content/ff9bcc3d-3583-4f99-8fec-ccfdf8dd3f72) - once a purview of cryptobloggers (https://amycastor.com/2019/01/17/the-curious-case-of-tether-a-complete-timeline-of-events/) and niche sites (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2019/05/10/binance-bitfinex-and-tether-whats-the-worst-that-can-happen/), the overwhelming stench of alleged Tether fraud (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/doj-reportedly-probes-crypto-company-tether-for-possible-bank-fraud.html) is now mainstream news.

BTC *will* retest ~1150 - timeframe is totally unpredictable because it depends on what unfolds in Florida, COPA, Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

You love to hate it, but you can't ignore it forever.

Why didn't you zoom in on the gap(s) to better explain yourself?

This is potentially one of those metrics that'll fail at some point, I think forex is said to have a lot of gaps with most of them being filled in the past.

I could imagine some whale bothering to fill that gap though at some point by listing 10000btc on a few exchanges and either making a price ceiling or market selling.

bullshit i see the same pattern as this year, there is no test all the way down there

all prediction are bullshit anyway, so who care

First off my apologies for post on another thread.

internet sucks. I realized I read your post wrong and deleted my part of the post directed to you. We then cross posted.

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This prediction is interesting. We both see a drop coming but your position is we hit the peak at 68 or 69 k correct?

Figures as I boasted 70k in May was certain to happen and here we are 8 months later and maybe had our cycle high according to your guess.

Well lets hope you are way off and we streak upwards soon way past 100k.

I suspect we will move in a 40-70k slot for months to come. While difficulty meanders upwards for months to come.

Time will tell.

Well there's a lot of support below so it's very unpredictable if that prediction has potential to be happen in the future. @op try different time frame for sure you can obtain more idea where the price will makes correction again or will create a consolidation for long time as its happened very often especially at this situation wherein a lot of investors buying at the dip. For me to be honest we can't tell, i mean we need more results because the bearish is just starting..

I could see the last prior ATH of $20K being retested, after all we came to $28K in the Summer. However I don't think we will retest the $1K ATH, if ever or for a very long time. I think if bitcoin actually went that low it would be due to some major event. For example, if Craig Wright actually was indeed satoshi and he sold all his 1.1M BTC at the market.

However I don't see that scenario happening. The $1K retest was possible maybe in 2018 and we came close to $3K. However I don't see it actually pulling back what 98.5% of its value, even the crappiest altcoins didn't go down in value that low, I don't think BTC will. Maybe $20K is possible, maybe $18K however not $1K.

I don't know what you think of bitcoin but a 98% crash is not just unprecedented but it is impossible. More than that, just an unprecedented event is not something you can predict!

No offense but your reasons are nonsense too. Take the case with the scammer CSW, we already had the court vote in his favor back in 2019 in a copyright case and bitcoin market didn't care. Again another court ruled in his favor regarding bitcoin paper this year and bitcoin market didn't care then either. Another vote about his supposed "fortune" when we already know most of the owners of the addresses he claimed to own have come forward calling out his bullshit will also not affect the market.
All the other cases have been debunked multiple times already too.

Wrong. You just have been living under a rock. For many years now the mainstream media has also been spreading their nonsense about a (non-existing) link between Tether and bitcoin then talk about Bitfinex fraudulent activities. The FUD hasn't been effective to this day and nothing about it has changed either.
Here are some nonsense from 2018 for example:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/much-of-bitcoins-2017-boom-was-market-manipulation-researcher-says.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/bitcoin-rigging-criminal-probe-is-said-to-focus-on-tie-to-tether
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

Great FUD analysis,OP.Keep it up with the FUD. ;D
Yeah,Tether is BS.It's a fractional reserve banking scheme.I couldn't care less about Tether.It's convenient for the crypto traders,but I have always though that the crypto industry will be fine without stablecoins.
However,thinking that Tether is the one and only reason which pumped the Bitcoin price from 1K to 68K USD is kinda delusional.
Aren't you ignoring all the BTC adoption,which happened during the last 4-5 years.
Is Tether the only factor that pumped the BTC price more than 50 times?
I wonder how the Bitcoin price was pumped from a few dollars to more than 1K USD,before Tether was a thing?

So you are saying that nothing matters ... all that matters is 1 pattern that repeated ... twice and this makes it so strong that it has to repeat forever no matter what. 1000 $ BTC? Thats around $15B marketcap. Its not 2017 anymore. Adoption is at completle different stage. BTC will never drop to 1000$ again because thats around $15B evaluation. 1 whale will buy whole supply much earlier.

No worries my dude, thanks for bothering to write that, countless others would not. You are stand up fellow!

But $1150 is not the prior ATH it is the one before that.

What relevance does the market behaviour in 2015/16 have to the market today?

Seems like this is trying to fit your wishful thinking to some prior data points and using those to justify the assertion.

Thank you.

I do disagree with crash and burn numbers like 1150. This is looking at BTC as a speculative play.

My partners and I blend mining ⛏ as a tool to create power demand. Power demand allows larger grid tied solar arrays.

This is a true utility value.

Ie copper as a trading bullion that has an electrical use.
btc as a trading asset that has an electrical use.

I feel this makes a floor for Btc well over 1100 usd . More like 10000 to 16000 floor.

5 cent power mines a btc for about 10000 cost
8 cent power mines a btc for about 16000 cost.

So I just dont see the drop to 1100 usd.

however maybe 15k to 21k is possible
if you study mining profits in july 2020 the miners were close to break even.

so I do see us going back to those levels one day with the diff higher breakeven is like 18-22k

True i do waiting some updates but i don't rely on that much, i much prefer on my own instinct i don't want to blame other people if i loss some of my small amount of money, that why i follow my own instinct instead of waiting for some updates.

Could be a wild guess but as statement goes. Nobody can predict the correct future. Technical helps on the possible movement but how many times we saw btc ignore these parameters? So I guess the better process is observation and cautious when doing trading. We can't avoid losses even if we wanted too but btc will always be a hyperbolic bomb that could trigger a way up or down.

This is one of those situation where people are saying that “all gaps must fill” like with the CME futures. Basically if you do some testing you will find that most of the gaps are eventually filled. However there are some which are not.

So even if $1150 was to eventually fill, you have no idea on the time line. It might end up filling finally in 50-100 years and that won’t help you. I also assumed in 2018 when we were at $3K that $1K would be a perfect area to long because it’s a textbook technical analysis level and many others did too and it never went there. Those waiting missed the opportunity.

sgbett, like kwukduck, might be another buy signal. Both of them FUD that the bull market has ended whenever there's a "normal 30% correction" for Bitcoin.

The surge will return, ser. Prepare for more revisions. "Science".

Can you explain to me how the legal debate between Wright and Bitcoin devs could affect the price of Bitcoin or have the effect of determining the end point of this cycle?
It would be logical not to repeat the same levels of 2017 and therefore it is difficult to break the peaks at 2021, but this does not mean that waiting for two months or more will be ideal.
Personally, I expect a top at $92,000 in February before we reach a 70% correction.

I will be sure to put in sells at 77,777.77 and 88,888.88  ;D

for now I mine and I have a $50 daily buy of BTC set for all of Dec

Weird "analysis", according to this we could either reach to 80k prices, or we could reach the 800 dollar prices? I mean I am not an expert on chart reading but it literally shows that. I am guessing that bitcoin will not be reaching 800 is not really a bold claim and I can make that very easily. Sure some people could be a bit too hopeful about what is going to happen and 80k may or may not happen, that is a bit depending on some stuff and I agree with them.

However, nothing in the world will take it to 800 dollars, hell even if Tether came out and said "your money is gone, we are not giving anyone their money back" it would still not be 800 dollars, there are way too many rich people involved who would outright buy every single bitcoin they could before the price hits that level. We should start ignoring these type of charts and stop considering the worst possible situation.

I don’t think the legal debate between Craig Wright will have any effect on BTC price. After all with all the evidence presented, most people know he is not the real Satoshi. I think people are thinking that it’s wise to buy his BSV coin because he will dump all 1.1M BTC on the Bitcoin network which would cause the price to crash.

A bigger issue is the Mt Gox distribution which will happen in 2022 sometime. This might have an effect on price because most likely some people will take profits and sell. At least some of their coins and when the time line is released, many will sell their coins well in advance because they think price will crash.

What Craig Wright, and the Bcash SV holders might actually want to happen is for Bcash SV to surge high in market value. Then because “he is Satoshi”, he can order a Bcash SV hard fork to take all pre-2012 dormant coins under his control.

The Wright vs Core devs is likely about whether Bitcoin core has been changed in a way such that it makes old transactions invalid - in particular I am talking about NLocktime and nSequence (http://'https://wiki.bitcoinsv.io/index.php/NLocktime_and_nSequence') it could be that as a result of those changes some older coins may be inaccessible.

As part of this case, core devs may be compelled to update the bitcoin core software in order to allow access to these coins.

If that is the case then it directly contradicts the prevailing view that code is law, and demonstrate that Bitcoin is in fact subject to the rule of law.

I think that may have a material effect on price, because many people are invested on the premise that BTC sits outside of law.

I also think it's possible this will have no effect, and I think your prediction of a $92k seems very reasonable too.

Horrors. I missed the day you posted. But it's Friday Saturday (I really am losing my mind) and I smelled the fear earlier in a group chat, so with some leftover sentiment I browse this thread and approve of the FUD.

Simple question for me: Until the 1150 retest, which next ATH this year (!) or next would force you to redraw some lines or adjust your positioning for the mid-term? Given that you think $92k is still possible, which price is not?

Nothing about locktime or sequence values changed in a way to make any existing outputs unspendable.

Unlike centralized altcoins such as bcashsv, the bitcoin protocol is not owned by anyone to be able to change it. If core devs made any change that we didn't like, they would be forking off to a shitcoin of their own the same way bcashsv forked off to a shitcoin of their own. Meanwhile bitcoin continues as is.

Back in 2017 some devs were compelled to change the code. We rejected them and bitcoin continued rising while their code became an altcoin. This was repeated more than a hundred times and each time bitcoin didn't care.

P.S. My initial observation seems to have been correct, despite your account age you don't seem to have any understanding of how Bitcoin works.

A 1,150 RESTEST? DOLLARS? Call me dumbfounded. I knew it was the right decision not to read the bullshit in the OP. Didn’t sgbett and proudhon always claim “Science”? Understandable, flat-Earthers compute simple math differently from regular Earthlings.

I definitely don't think it's possible but it doesn't make me less interested to understand how an unexpected ATH (for them) would work out to their end. He thinks 1150 and 92k are both possible, so it should at least make for some wild theories, which hey, is what we're sometimes here for no?

The science of speculation's pretty special to me heh.

I would guess that creating bad talks about bitcoin itself is one of the key factors of people who are in love with the bear idea. The "reasons" why it could go down are not even cared for here as well, so it is clear indication that OP has no idea how bitcoin works and how it could be so high.

I get that some people can't comprehend it, I get that many people still imagine it will "die", after all not everyone can be as visionary as people who invest into bitcoin, but the lack of self-awareness is the most funny thing about OP and anyone who agrees with him. If you are talking badly about bitcoin and how low it could become, then you are giving life into it, even when you are saying bad things, OP is literally one of the reasons why it won't be that low.

It’s been years since I looked at the BSV protocol however I am pretty sure the way it’s designed is that any dormant coins will just be brought back into the supply and miners will get those coins.

The issue is that if you look at the BSVUSD chart, you will see it has hardly done anything for the past few years. A few scam wicks here and there and that’s about it.

Even if he gets those coins, they will be worth like $100 each and if he starts to sell the coin will tank to like $1.

There goes self-sovereignty in the protocol. There goes censorship-resistance, and there goes the developers’ social contract to the community. What are they using POW/blockchain for? Use MySQL database.


They treat it like other shitcoins. Pump it, then dump.

So the graph goes from 2013 to present using an exponential scale to fit it all on.   The main problem is the Dollar of 2021 is not equal to the Dollar of 2013, it doesnt appear to have changed massively in terms of DXY dollar index because all FIAT currencies have attempted to keep pace with the constant devaluation so as to not upset trade balance globally.   However for pricing predictions on this scale you do need to consider Dollar is unlikely ever to regain its value.    In theory you can swap the present Ruble to the old Ruble at a ratio of 10,000 to 1 but most would not ignore such change in value because it failed so massively, Dollar isnt yet failed to the point of being obvious but for any prediction accuracy over time it shouldn't be ignored value fell.
  If we include that dollar value fell maybe some of the pullback targets make more sense.    We saw 28k low with the prior ATH at about 20k, thats about 29% less then the recent low but if we consider 25% of all dollars newly appeared in 2020 that could roughly translate 2021 to the ATH of 2017.   

Definitely dude truly the fudster are the one who wants to be bearish cause they want to invest more in cryptocurrencies that's why they are spreading fake news in any kinds of social media platform. So we must not get believe any bad thing they say to Bitcoin. Only one thing is for sure Bitcoin is increasing year by year.

Bullshit.

I don't know how people dare to talk about predictions so vehemently, like lecturing us, as those of us who have been investing for many years know that predictions based on charts and patterns fail constantly.

I was going to ask you how much you want to bet, but of course, the bet has to have a time limit, and then you pull this out of your sleeve:


You don't tell us anything we don't already know.

It’s very convenient of him to say “timeframe is totally unpredictable” because he deeply, and truly knows that what he posted is mere bullshit. They will also tell you that they’re playing “4D Chess” to protect them image from their own stupidity. Flat-Earthers.

I believe that Bitcoin cannot go back to its previous position. There are more investors in the market now than ever before. Cryptography has increased among people more than before. It is not possible to go back to 2017. Maybe the price decree for certain period of time.

https://i.imgur.com/RwVHHzT.gif

Date Registered:   August 02, 2020

Hory sheet, sgbett the troll returns.

As if your last laughable price bottom prediction (which failed miserably) wasn't bad enough, now you come back with $1150??

Even proudhon couldn't suggest a bottom like that one and keep a straight face.

My god man, give it up. Go crawl back into your hole. Maybe take up ant farming.

I agree with you, predictions are not accurate, bitcoin will continue to be traded in the market and no one will be able to predict where the bitcoin price will go 100%.  go up or turn bitcoin price I will still hold because I don't really care about analysis and fud..

Well if you really think its going to go to $1K and you think it will happen sometime in 2022 like in June. Then you can go on Deribit and buy the lowest put they got, which is the $15000 strike put for only $400.

So if on June 24 2022 the price of BTC is $1000, this put will have a value of $14000 at least, most likely higher since it has a premium. So your $400 investment will yield at least $14000. And if you buy 100 of these put options, you will be a multi-millionaire.

He probably sold around the $1,150 price point, and used all the profits to buy Gold and Silver, then Bcash SV. With Craig Wright not keeping his promise that Bcash SV will replace Bitcoin as the Real Bitcoin, sgbett wants to buy back Bitcoin at the same price point he sold.

He converted all his BTC to BCH when it split, and then to BSV when it split again. He is 100% in BSV.

He still has 1 share of XBT-Provider (an ETF that tracks BTC price) remaining in his SIPP.

Here are the dates that I bought/sold XBT-Provider over the last few years, I can't complain. You can't buy it anymore due to FCA regs. He does not want to buy BTC at any price.

Trolling and idealism aside, and from your point of view, it’s a waste of opportunity from an investing standpoint in my opinion. I believe even Roger Ver has never sold a large part of his HODLed Bitcoins for Bcash.

Yeah Roger Ver is some character. From what I remember he said he is selling lots of his BTC for BCH but he never actually provided any proof. The only people that I know that sold a large chunk of their BTC for BCH was the Bitmain company which makes Antminer. They were very pro BCH and held tons of BCH, Didnt sell at the top and then later on we’re holding the bag.

First time I heard of Roger Ver was during the Bitcoin fork back in Aug 2017, prior to that I never heard of him before. He was called the Bitcoin Jesus because he apparently did lots for bitcoins early adoption in 2011-2012 or so but lately he has been acting very immature.

;)

Well, when you become so wealthy, suddenly you want everything go right for you forever. It is about how he has so much money and that means he gets to do whatever he wants that can be bought with money, and he invested into something that made him wealthier than he ever imagined, and people probably suck up to him because he is wealthy and so forth and so forth. When you live in a bubble like that, you think every idea that enters your brain is a great one, and we all know it is actually not that great to create BCH but nobody told him not to.

This is why I always suggest companies should have a "no" man. Hire someone to tell you why something you are about to do as a business should not be done, if he can convince you then you don't do it, if he doesn't then you do it. This dude just got too much time at cloud9 and he needed to be brought down a little bit and BCH crashing and not being around top anymore could be that key.

Bitcoin has a no man - everybody hates him :)

Just in case anyone is feeling a little disoriented I produced this handy map...

https://i.imgur.com/xbSJxaT.png

original sauce confirmed here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5320738.msg57042487#msg57042487)