I know you have all been waiting in anticipation of on update....

[sgbett]

2017 forecast - with explanation of how post-Gox played out

2020 Revised forecast - with explanation of how each ATH must retest previous before next rally can begin.

Tether BS in FT - once a purview of cryptobloggers and niche sites, the overwhelming stench of alleged Tether fraud is now mainstream news.

BTC *will* retest ~1150 - timeframe is totally unpredictable because it depends on what unfolds in Florida, COPA, Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

You love to hate it, but you can't ignore it forever.

[1714686800]

1714686800

[1714686800]

1714686800

[jackg]

Why didn't you zoom in on the gap(s) to better explain yourself?

This is potentially one of those metrics that'll fail at some point, I think forex is said to have a lot of gaps with most of them being filled in the past.

I could imagine some whale bothering to fill that gap though at some point by listing 10000btc on a few exchanges and either making a price ceiling or market selling.

[Amph]

bullshit i see the same pattern as this year, there is no test all the way down there

all prediction are bullshit anyway, so who care

[philipma1957]

2017 forecast - with explanation of how post-Gox played out

2020 Revised forecast - with explanation of how each ATH must retest previous before next rally can begin.

Tether BS in FT - once a purview of cryptobloggers and niche sites, the overwhelming stench of alleged Tether fraud is now mainstream news.

BTC *will* retest ~1150 - timeframe is totally unpredictable because it depends on what unfolds in Florida, COPA, Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

You love to hate it, but you can't ignore it forever.

First off my apologies for post on another thread.

internet sucks. I realized I read your post wrong and deleted my part of the post directed to you. We then cross posted.




This prediction is interesting. We both see a drop coming but your position is we hit the peak at 68 or 69 k correct?

Figures as I boasted 70k in May was certain to happen and here we are 8 months later and maybe had our cycle high according to your guess.

Well lets hope you are way off and we streak upwards soon way past 100k.

I suspect we will move in a 40-70k slot for months to come. While difficulty meanders upwards for months to come.

Time will tell.

[Ararbermas]

Well there's a lot of support below so it's very unpredictable if that prediction has potential to be happen in the future. @op try different time frame for sure you can obtain more idea where the price will makes correction again or will create a consolidation for long time as its happened very often especially at this situation wherein a lot of investors buying at the dip. For me to be honest we can't tell, i mean we need more results because the bearish is just starting..

[adaseb]

I could see the last prior ATH of $20K being retested, after all we came to $28K in the Summer. However I don't think we will retest the $1K ATH, if ever or for a very long time. I think if bitcoin actually went that low it would be due to some major event. For example, if Craig Wright actually was indeed satoshi and he sold all his 1.1M BTC at the market.

However I don't see that scenario happening. The $1K retest was possible maybe in 2018 and we came close to $3K. However I don't see it actually pulling back what 98.5% of its value, even the crappiest altcoins didn't go down in value that low, I don't think BTC will. Maybe $20K is possible, maybe $18K however not $1K.

[pooya87]

BTC *will* retest ~1150

I don't know what you think of bitcoin but a 98% crash is not just unprecedented but it is impossible. More than that, just an unprecedented event is not something you can predict!

depends on what unfolds in Florida, COPA, Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

No offense but your reasons are nonsense too. Take the case with the scammer CSW, we already had the court vote in his favor back in 2019 in a copyright case and bitcoin market didn't care. Again another court ruled in his favor regarding bitcoin paper this year and bitcoin market didn't care then either. Another vote about his supposed "fortune" when we already know most of the owners of the addresses he claimed to own have come forward calling out his bullshit will also not affect the market.
All the other cases have been debunked multiple times already too.

the overwhelming stench of alleged Tether fraud is now mainstream news.

Wrong. You just have been living under a rock. For many years now the mainstream media has also been spreading their nonsense about a (non-existing) link between Tether and bitcoin then talk about Bitfinex fraudulent activities. The FUD hasn't been effective to this day and nothing about it has changed either.
Here are some nonsense from 2018 for example:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/much-of-bitcoins-2017-boom-was-market-manipulation-researcher-says.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/bitcoin-rigging-criminal-probe-is-said-to-focus-on-tie-to-tether
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

[davis196]

Great FUD analysis,OP.Keep it up with the FUD.
Yeah,Tether is BS.It's a fractional reserve banking scheme.I couldn't care less about Tether.It's convenient for the crypto traders,but I have always though that the crypto industry will be fine without stablecoins.
However,thinking that Tether is the one and only reason which pumped the Bitcoin price from 1K to 68K USD is kinda delusional.
Aren't you ignoring all the BTC adoption,which happened during the last 4-5 years.
Is Tether the only factor that pumped the BTC price more than 50 times?
I wonder how the Bitcoin price was pumped from a few dollars to more than 1K USD,before Tether was a thing?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

So you are saying that nothing matters ... all that matters is 1 pattern that repeated ... twice and this makes it so strong that it has to repeat forever no matter what. 1000 $ BTC? Thats around $15B marketcap. Its not 2017 anymore. Adoption is at completle different stage. BTC will never drop to 1000$ again because thats around $15B evaluation. 1 whale will buy whole supply much earlier.

[sgbett]

First off my apologies for post on another thread.

internet sucks. I realized I read your post wrong and deleted my part of the post directed to you. We then cross posted.

No worries my dude, thanks for bothering to write that, countless others would not. You are stand up fellow!

[tertius993]

But $1150 is not the prior ATH it is the one before that.

What relevance does the market behaviour in 2015/16 have to the market today?

Seems like this is trying to fit your wishful thinking to some prior data points and using those to justify the assertion.

[philipma1957]

First off my apologies for post on another thread.

internet sucks. I realized I read your post wrong and deleted my part of the post directed to you. We then cross posted.

No worries my dude, thanks for bothering to write that, countless others would not. You are stand up fellow!

Thank you.

I do disagree with crash and burn numbers like 1150. This is looking at BTC as a speculative play.

My partners and I blend mining ⛏ as a tool to create power demand. Power demand allows larger grid tied solar arrays.

This is a true utility value.

Ie copper as a trading bullion that has an electrical use.
btc as a trading asset that has an electrical use.

I feel this makes a floor for Btc well over 1100 usd . More like 10000 to 16000 floor.

5 cent power mines a btc for about 10000 cost
8 cent power mines a btc for about 16000 cost.

So I just dont see the drop to 1100 usd.

however maybe 15k to 21k is possible
if you study mining profits in july 2020 the miners were close to break even.

so I do see us going back to those levels one day with the diff higher breakeven is like 18-22k

[darkangelosme]

True i do waiting some updates but i don't rely on that much, i much prefer on my own instinct i don't want to blame other people if i loss some of my small amount of money, that why i follow my own instinct instead of waiting for some updates.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Could be a wild guess but as statement goes. Nobody can predict the correct future. Technical helps on the possible movement but how many times we saw btc ignore these parameters? So I guess the better process is observation and cautious when doing trading. We can't avoid losses even if we wanted too but btc will always be a hyperbolic bomb that could trigger a way up or down.

[adaseb]

This is one of those situation where people are saying that “all gaps must fill” like with the CME futures. Basically if you do some testing you will find that most of the gaps are eventually filled. However there are some which are not.

So even if $1150 was to eventually fill, you have no idea on the time line. It might end up filling finally in 50-100 years and that won’t help you. I also assumed in 2018 when we were at $3K that $1K would be a perfect area to long because it’s a textbook technical analysis level and many others did too and it never went there. Those waiting missed the opportunity.

[Wind_FURY]

sgbett, like kwukduck, might be another buy signal. Both of them FUD that the bull market has ended whenever there's a "normal 30% correction" for Bitcoin.

The surge will return, ser. Prepare for more revisions. "Science".

[hugeblack]

Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

Can you explain to me how the legal debate between Wright and Bitcoin devs could affect the price of Bitcoin or have the effect of determining the end point of this cycle?
It would be logical not to repeat the same levels of 2017 and therefore it is difficult to break the peaks at 2021, but this does not mean that waiting for two months or more will be ideal.
Personally, I expect a top at $92,000 in February before we reach a 70% correction.

[philipma1957]

Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

Can you explain to me how the legal debate between Wright and Bitcoin devs could affect the price of Bitcoin or have the effect of determining the end point of this cycle?
It would be logical not to repeat the same levels of 2017 and therefore it is difficult to break the peaks at 2021, but this does not mean that waiting for two months or more will be ideal.
Personally, I expect a top at $92,000 in February before we reach a 70% correction.

I will be sure to put in sells at 77,777.77 and 88,888.88 

for now I mine and I have a $50 daily buy of BTC set for all of Dec

[el kaka22]

Weird "analysis", according to this we could either reach to 80k prices, or we could reach the 800 dollar prices? I mean I am not an expert on chart reading but it literally shows that. I am guessing that bitcoin will not be reaching 800 is not really a bold claim and I can make that very easily. Sure some people could be a bit too hopeful about what is going to happen and 80k may or may not happen, that is a bit depending on some stuff and I agree with them.

However, nothing in the world will take it to 800 dollars, hell even if Tether came out and said "your money is gone, we are not giving anyone their money back" it would still not be 800 dollars, there are way too many rich people involved who would outright buy every single bitcoin they could before the price hits that level. We should start ignoring these type of charts and stop considering the worst possible situation.

[adaseb]

I don’t think the legal debate between Craig Wright will have any effect on BTC price. After all with all the evidence presented, most people know he is not the real Satoshi. I think people are thinking that it’s wise to buy his BSV coin because he will dump all 1.1M BTC on the Bitcoin network which would cause the price to crash.

A bigger issue is the Mt Gox distribution which will happen in 2022 sometime. This might have an effect on price because most likely some people will take profits and sell. At least some of their coins and when the time line is released, many will sell their coins well in advance because they think price will crash.