Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: d5000 on February 17, 2022, 05:01:32 PM



Title: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: d5000 on February 17, 2022, 05:01:32 PM
I was interested in the following question: What do you consider the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is currently in a growth phase, but eventually it will become an "established" asset. At least many Bitcoin supporters, including me, believe this. In this "final" scenario, Bitcoin could become more stable, with bubbles and crashes being part of the past.

But how exactly will this scenario look like? Bitcoin could, for example, stay in the "alternative asset" category just like now and continue growing, but it could also overtake gold, or even major currencies like the Euro or US dollar, to become a sort of new "value standard". On the other hand, it could also go to zero o become "flippened" by another cryptocurrency (not necessarily the one starting with E).

The poll's options are "incremental", from the most negative to the most positive scenario (so no, I'm not wanting to insinuate at all that Bitcoin's "death" is the most likely scenario :) ). You are encouraged to post your opinion and fundamentation of your choice but please don't be too generic. Vote changes are possible if you change your mind. I'll evaluate the outcome once a substantial amount of users have voted.

Poll edits:

02-18: Added "Other" option.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: hatshepsut93 on February 17, 2022, 05:22:00 PM
The leader of the crypto market - agree, I believe it will have >90% dominance in the coming years, as the market will tire from altcoins and tokens being nothing more than pump and dump schemes and unrealistic promises


a niche currency - yes, people are mostly satisfied with fiat and fiat payment systems, very few see the benefits of using Bitcoin, especially considering the downsides

 
and an alternative investment asset (like now) - you compare it to gold, but Bitcoin's current marketcap is already a single-digit percentage of gold's marketcap, and after a bit of a price rise it will again be a double-digitl percentage. So it could already be called a major asset.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: g-uid on February 17, 2022, 05:57:24 PM
The leader of the crypto market - agree, I believe it will have >90% dominance in the coming years, as the market will tire from altcoins and tokens being nothing more than pump and dump schemes and unrealistic promises


a niche currency - yes, people are mostly satisfied with fiat and fiat payment systems, very few see the benefits of using Bitcoin, especially considering the downsides

 
and an alternative investment asset (like now) - you compare it to gold, but Bitcoin's current marketcap is already a single-digit percentage of gold's marketcap, and after a bit of a price rise it will again be a double-digitl percentage. So it could already be called a major asset.

what's your source on gold's marketcap?


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: fiulpro on February 17, 2022, 10:44:13 PM
The funny part is, it's only been a few years since bitcoins came into existence which does mean that it pretty much won quite a lot over time. I do think that for days to come we might be seeing a lot of positive attitude in the crypto market with it getting accepted by people and govern alike, not just becoming an asset but also being used as a currency at times like the Canadian Protest where Government used their powers a bit too much. Bitcoins might be the only thing protecting the people for the time being. It's always going to be on the top not just because of its price but also because of its community as well, which supports it extensively well.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: bitmover on February 17, 2022, 11:48:15 PM
nd things like that.to bitcoin (like a wbtc in bsc chain) and things like that..major asset,  like a digital gold and an established payment method.

There are probably be many second layer solutions, lighting, many altcoins pegged to bitcoin (like a wbtc in bsc chain), banks backed by bitocin and things like that.

Especially with the growing inflation and negative interest rates all over the globe.

This is my most optimistic scenario.


i also believe that bitcoinmight have a role to play in the future of Defi and NFT.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: mk4 on February 18, 2022, 05:45:02 AM
There's a few options I would pick if we we're allowed to pick multiple answers, but I'll go for: A leading currency or asset, overtaking gold. Depending on how far off we're talking about "long term" here, but I think bitcoin overtaking gold will inevitably happen sometime in the future.

The "overtake major fiat currencies" part: while I hope it would, I'm kinda doubtful of.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Poker Player on February 18, 2022, 07:08:01 AM
I agree with most of the answers. I think it will continue to be the No. 1 in the crypto market and will grow in importance as an investment, until it replaces gold as digital gold.

The "overtake major fiat currencies" part: while I hope it would, I'm kinda doubtful of.

I feel the same way. I see it more as a dream than a possible reality.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Kakmakr on February 18, 2022, 07:33:20 AM
I think Bitcoin will stay ahead of the pack for a few years, but as with any other technology, it will be replaced by some groundbreaking Crypto currency that will use less energy and one that are easier to use and also lower transaction cost. (The Lightning Network is just too complex for the average user)

The advantage that Bitcoin had over other Crypto currencies was that it was the first Crypto currency that was released, but since then 1000s of Alt coins has been developed and a lot of them have some features that are better than Bitcoin. The first to market advantage has now shrunk and Alternative Crypto currency adoption has increased at a rapid pace.  ::)


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Vatimins on February 18, 2022, 10:32:07 AM
     If picking multiple options were allowed, I would've picked a few. But I am more leaned on bitcoin becoming a leading currency, overtaking gold. Some of the choice ces are already happening to bitcoin. Just imagine how scarce the supply is and how long before every single bitcoin gets mined. Now think about how many huge people and institutions have not yet made their decisions in buying bitcoin, (which I am positive that they will favor buying bitcoin in the future) the price rise by that time would be scarily high that the current all time high would look very cheap.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Wind_FURY on February 18, 2022, 10:40:27 AM
I believe it will overtake Gold as a preferred asset to HODL in the treasury of the Super Powers. I believe it will start with Russia, Iran, then China with North Korea. The United States, Asia and Western Europe, as a response will HODL Bitcoin too, and allow mining in their countries.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: avikz on February 18, 2022, 11:09:12 AM
It all depends on what you think the team is! If you are looking for next 20 - 25 years, bitcoin will remain as a market leader and the backbone of the entire crypto market just like today. Also it will remain as one of the best performing assets which will find its way into various new markets when more countries will approve bitcoin to be used as an investment.

But I am not overly bullish to say that it will become the main store of value in the world. It will simply remain as it is today!


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: arwin100 on February 18, 2022, 11:35:08 AM
I believe it will overtake Gold as a preferred asset to HODL in the treasury of the Super Powers. I believe it will start with Russia, Iran, then China with North Korea. The United States, Asia and Western Europe, as a response will HODL Bitcoin too, and allow mining in their countries.

That's what I'm looking forward to as bitcoin have 21million+ over all supply only and imagine if all people of the world will adopt it so we can expect the price burst if the demand will go up together with major wide spread of adoption. First world countries you mentioned are already now into cryptocurrency and some major super powers are now adopting or thinking about legalization of bitcoin. So no wonder all price soar high prediction will come true in future.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: jrrsparkles on February 18, 2022, 11:35:40 AM
My assumption is it will be the new era gold so chosen leading asset even overtaking the gold but replacing the fiat currencies and become the most preferred payment for everything is still yet to be known because as of now Bitcoin is considered as asset by most people even long term holders so it will grow more as an asset and people may adopt it as currency if goverment let them to do.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Leviathan.007 on February 18, 2022, 11:57:24 AM
It's not like we can predict the future of bitcoin but from what we can see right now about bitcoin if everything goes well like this I expect to see a huge adoption during the long term and many countries should make clear rules about bitcoin maybe some of them will ban bitcoin, like china and some other countries will legalize bitcoin also I expect to see the most of the governments trying to earn some money from the tax the get from bitcoin investments, also the ai can be more useful for tracing bitcoin transactions even while using bitcoin mixers.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: iv4n on February 18, 2022, 12:23:13 PM
My assumption is it will be the new era gold so chosen leading asset even overtaking the gold but replacing the fiat currencies and become the most preferred payment for everything is still yet to be known because as of now Bitcoin is considered as asset by most people even long term holders so it will grow more as an asset and people may adopt it as currency if goverment let them to do.

It will be what gold was before, but with more features! I voted for that, it's how I imagine the long-term scenario for Bitcoin... simply Bitcoin has been on top for 10 years, and I think it will stay there! There are good coins around, great projects, but for now, I don't see some real competitors that can shake Bitcoin first place in the near future!
I would like to see Bitcoin overtaking major fiat currencies, but what are the chances for that to happen?! I guess very very low, and even with some low chances, I think we are talking about some distant future!


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Wexnident on February 18, 2022, 12:36:48 PM
Major investment asset, rivaling gold. That's for around maybe at the middle of my life maybe? Honestly, even now, It already is one, though rivaling gold may still take some time. It may even exceed it honestly, but I'd probably still stand at the middle point.
I think Bitcoin will stay ahead of the pack for a few years, but as with any other technology, it will be replaced by some groundbreaking Crypto currency that will use less energy and one that are easier to use and also lower transaction cost. (The Lightning Network is just too complex for the average user)
But that's assuming that the Lightning Network would never be simplified no? As other currencies get developed, I reckon there'd also be QoL changes that would make Bitcoin rather easy to use for the average person, though they'd probably still need to understand a few general jargon. Unless a currency would follow the same system of the decentralized idea that Bitcoin had, I hardly think it'd be replaced as a top option.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: mk4 on February 18, 2022, 03:34:30 PM
The "overtake major fiat currencies" part: while I hope it would, I'm kinda doubtful of.

I feel the same way. I see it more as a dream than a possible reality.

Yep. As if the United States or pretty much 95% of governments would allow that to happen. Don't get me wrong — I think after some time bitcoin would probably be accepted widely(but probably mostly online), but overtake major fiat currencies? Nah man.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: d5000 on February 18, 2022, 03:37:12 PM
Thank you for your votes already. I'll not discuss the reasons for your vote as the purpose of this thread is to gather some opinions.

Just a remark about the poll itself:

If picking multiple options were allowed, I would've picked a few.
It is intentional that there are not multiple options, everybody should pick the one which they feel like it could be the most likely one. The more positive/bullish options in the lower part of the poll already include the "achievements" assumed for the above part, for example the option "it will rival gold" assumes that it will remain also the leader of the crypto market. There are some weird scenarios where cryptocurrencies could become so popular that Bitcoin, in the case it was only #2 or #3 of the crypto market, could already rival gold; but I consider them unlikely. However, I'll add an "Other" option, just for the case.

Now that some have voted I can disclose my own vote: I personally think Bitcoin will at least rival gold, this is the option I selected. I don't rule out that it can overtake it (in fact I considered to vote for that option) as it has much more important qualities for the digital age, but tradition can be hard to beat.

Ah, as someone asked for the gold market cap (or better: "the value of all gold in the world"): many estimates I've seen are from 10-15 trillion USD (this estimate (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-how-much-gold-is-in-the-world/) gives 12,5 T, and explains also in which form - jewellry, bars etc. - it exists) and thus @hatshepsut93 is right about Bitcoin's "market cap" (which also isn't really a market cap) being in the higher single digits percentage range but can go to double digits if we see another bull run.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Dunamisx on February 18, 2022, 03:53:33 PM
Major investment asset, it will rival gold

Personally am much convince that one-day, bitcoin rivalry with gold will be contending and then people would have been satisfied that the two are the major investment and asset one could not afford doing without.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: el kaka22 on February 18, 2022, 06:19:23 PM
    If picking multiple options were allowed, I would've picked a few. But I am more leaned on bitcoin becoming a leading currency, overtaking gold. Some of the choice ces are already happening to bitcoin. Just imagine how scarce the supply is and how long before every single bitcoin gets mined. Now think about how many huge people and institutions have not yet made their decisions in buying bitcoin, (which I am positive that they will favor buying bitcoin in the future) the price rise by that time would be scarily high that the current all time high would look very cheap.
I would have done the same as well. I believe that it will not be the leader, I believe that there will be better ones in the future and then bitcoin will be top 10 for decades so I do not think that it will be gone. However, I believe that even while not being number one, it will be fighting above gold, not too much for a long time, it requires like 20-30 years at least to be away from gold if you ask me but in 10 years it will surely fight a level over gold. In that case multiple options is needed. Rivaling fiat is also a deal but major? I am not sure about that.

I think about dollar the moment I think about major fiat currencies and bitcoin being more valuable than dollar as a marketcap is impossible, that much I know for sure. Which is why I believe that it is really not that much possible for bitcoin to actually challenge a major one, but definitely be more valuable than some of them at lower nations.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: mobilestrike on February 18, 2022, 07:53:28 PM
I believe it will overtake Gold as a preferred asset to HODL in the treasury of the Super Powers. I believe it will start with Russia, Iran, then China with North Korea. The United States, Asia and Western Europe, as a response will HODL Bitcoin too, and allow mining in their countries.
It will definitely be the store of value for the rich people and all of the rich people will invest their money in it and will leave gold but it seems like China will not be among those who will start in the early adopters because the people of that country started it first but the government is not in the favor of it while Russia and European countries are on the front line and after that USA may also follow to legalize bitcoin.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Wind_FURY on February 19, 2022, 06:36:34 AM
I believe it will overtake Gold as a preferred asset to HODL in the treasury of the Super Powers. I believe it will start with Russia, Iran, then China with North Korea. The United States, Asia and Western Europe, as a response will HODL Bitcoin too, and allow mining in their countries.

That's what I'm looking forward to as bitcoin have 21million+ over all supply only and imagine if all people of the world will adopt it so we can expect the price burst if the demand will go up together with major wide spread of adoption. First world countries you mentioned are already now into cryptocurrency and some major super powers are now adopting or thinking about legalization of bitcoin. So no wonder all price soar high prediction will come true in future.


I believe Bitcoin has reached near the top of adoption for ordinary people/users, and corporations/institutions have started adopting it. It’s going to be ready for the next phase of adoption. NATION-STATES, bringing out the true nature of Bitcoin in international politics/geo-politics, which can weaken a rival’s dominance.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Ultegra134 on February 19, 2022, 01:57:06 PM
On the one hand, I believe that more altcoins will keep popping up, few of which will have potential, not to rival Bitcoin of course, but to appear in the top charts, such examples are Cardano, BNB, Solana, Terra, and I'm pretty sure there are plenty other promising ones. Thus, I highly doubt that Bitcoin will surpass 80-90% dominance, like others suggested, it will still be the dominant cryptocurrency, but won't surpass such percentages for sure (currently sitting at 42%).

On the other hand, Bitcoin will most likely be considered an asset of high value, somewhat defeating its initial purpose, since people will be highly unlikely to use it for transactions, rivaling or even surpassing gold.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Moneyprism on February 19, 2022, 02:29:48 PM
Major investment asset, it will rival gold

Personally am much convince that one-day, bitcoin rivalry with gold will be contending and then people would have been satisfied that the two are the major investment and asset one could not afford doing without.


totally agree with this statement. bitcoin will be one of the investment instruments that will rival gold and people's views on bitcoin will be more positive in the future

... it will not be possible for bitcoin to become a currency that will replace the existing fiat currency, surely the central bank will prevent this from happening


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Coyster on February 19, 2022, 03:29:13 PM
I voted for "major investment asset, it will rival gold", i would give quite a few reasons why i went with that choice, firstly i cannot state categorically that Bitcoin will overtake gold, yes it very well could or couldn't, but i am pretty sure it will rival gold sometime soon, even right now so many people already prefer Bitcoin to gold for many reasons, Btc is not yet a "safe haven" asset like gold is, but i am pretty certain that it will.

Having said that, if we take a look at the pace with which Bitcoin continues to develop and grow, with it being a perfect hedge to fiat inflation/devaluation and also attractive features like "being your bank" it offers its users, i am pretty sure Bitcoin is going to be the major investment asset, that is if it isn't already. There are many good things happening in the Bitcoin network, and since it is a long term sustainable project, generally its long term scenario is going to be good.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: TheGreatPython on February 19, 2022, 08:29:38 PM
Major investment asset, it will rival gold
Personally am much convince that one-day, bitcoin rivalry with gold will be contending and then people would have been satisfied that the two are the major investment and asset one could not afford doing without.
totally agree with this statement. bitcoin will be one of the investment instruments that will rival gold and people's views on bitcoin will be more positive in the future

... it will not be possible for bitcoin to become a currency that will replace the existing fiat currency, surely the central bank will prevent this from happening
What about now? I think this is already known that btc is a rival of gold because they are always being compared to each other. Not to be biased but i think that btc is already a clear winner here because btc value have increased a lot year after year while gold merely show a gain. How much more in the future if btc became more mainstream? Gold is already known, it is old and rusty so I don't think there will be a major change in its value.

@OP
I voted for the 3rd choice in the poll because I think that is what suites bitcoin the most today and even in the future. Choices 4 and 5, I think have similarities. On choice number 4, you can remove  "A leading currency or asset ".


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: uneng on February 19, 2022, 08:44:25 PM
Probably The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now) or Major investment asset, it will rival gold.

Inside crypto market, bitcoin is unstoppable and imbatible. It is the first and original cryptocurrency among all and even though at some point a new superior cryptocurrency in technology, cost-benefit and usage is developed and heavily adopted, bitcoin will keep its position as a rare good or relic with historical value, while becoming more and more scarce each new day.

And being extremely or maybe utopically optimistic, bitcoin can rise to the status of gold, although I think it's unlikely, because physical precious metals will be always above any kind of virtual goods.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Fatunad on February 19, 2022, 09:11:10 PM
I chose:
The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now)

and the next thing? No one really knows on when or how long it would last because there's no one could able to predict on what would happen in the future.
So other options or words in the poll isnt something that could really happen or nearly impossible but well who knows right?  ;)


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: takngantuk on February 20, 2022, 08:41:01 AM


Bitcoin is currently in a growth phase, but eventually it will become an "established" asset. At least many Bitcoin supporters, including me, believe this. In this "final" scenario, Bitcoin could become more stable, with bubbles and crashes being part of the past.


I have my doubts about this, because people prefer bitcoin volatility over being more stable. so the final scenario you thought up was very difficult to materialize. bitcoin is so loved for this, see how bitcoin make people rich in just a short time. One reason is volatility. so in the future bitcoin will stay like this.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: xSkylarx on February 20, 2022, 09:21:16 AM


Bitcoin is currently in a growth phase, but eventually it will become an "established" asset. At least many Bitcoin supporters, including me, believe this. In this "final" scenario, Bitcoin could become more stable, with bubbles and crashes being part of the past.


I have my doubts about this, because people prefer bitcoin volatility over being more stable. so the final scenario you thought up was very difficult to materialize. bitcoin is so loved for this, see how bitcoin make people rich in just a short time. One reason is volatility. so in the future bitcoin will stay like this.

Yeah, I agree that before people really want those stable currencies, as you can see in forex, we could really say that it is kinda stable if there is no news that could affect the market, but if we are talking cryptocurrency, almost every week something happens that makes a long candle, which is the time if you ride that bull run then you will be wealthy. People adore Bitcoin because of its volatility and current price, which is extremely high.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Twinkledoe on February 20, 2022, 09:40:25 AM

Bitcoin is currently in a growth phase, but eventually it will become an "established" asset. At least many Bitcoin supporters, including me, believe this. In this "final" scenario, Bitcoin could become more stable, with bubbles and crashes being part of the past.


I have my doubts about this, because people prefer bitcoin volatility over being more stable. so the final scenario you thought up was very difficult to materialize. bitcoin is so loved for this, see how bitcoin make people rich in just a short time. One reason is volatility. so in the future bitcoin will stay like this.

Yeah, I agree that before people really want those stable currencies, as you can see in forex, we could really say that it is kinda stable if there is no news that could affect the market, but if we are talking cryptocurrency, almost every week something happens that makes a long candle, which is the time if you ride that bull run then you will be wealthy. People adore Bitcoin because of its volatility and current price, which is extremely high.

The volatility factor is one of the features why many like bitcoin to be their asset. This is I think, will last for long. Though maybe in the future, the price may attain its stability. But for now, the volatility is the reason why there are many people going into this market. It will still lead all the crypto in my opinion. Some will emerge as better competitors but people will still patronize bitcoin as the main cryptocurrency.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: mindrust on February 20, 2022, 10:56:08 AM
Charlie Munger recently said FIAT is going to zero soon. What will replace FIAT? Gold has no mobility. The best candidates are crypto. Not necessarily bitcoin there isn't really many choices. The other option is ETH of course.

I'd like to see bitcoin taking over FIAT currencies but I don't think Bitcoin or any other currency can handle that kind of demand. The tech is not there yet.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: Lucius on February 20, 2022, 04:12:58 PM
I am closest to the option "The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now)", because it somehow sounds most realistic to me at the moment, although it is impossible to estimate what attitude the world's greatest powers will take towards Bitcoin in the future. While some are reluctant to admit it, Bitcoin cannot succeed globally if it is banned or restricted in the US, EU, China, Russia, UK, or India, and we have different views in those countries, ranging from total bans, to discouraging people to invest in Bitcoin in a way that income taxes go over 50%.

If Bitcoin lasts long enough, maybe one day it will have an even bigger market cap than gold, because gold mining in the future goes beyond our planet, because there is gold on asteroids, and maybe on some planets in our solar system.

Judging by what we have seen so far, most people are not ready to replace fiat with any alternative, and whether it is out of ignorance, fear or something else remains a question.


Title: Re: [POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?
Post by: m2017 on February 20, 2022, 06:19:43 PM
Charlie Munger recently said FIAT is going to zero soon. What will replace FIAT? Gold has no mobility. The best candidates are crypto. Not necessarily bitcoin there isn't really many choices. The other option is ETH of course.

I'd like to see bitcoin taking over FIAT currencies but I don't think Bitcoin or any other currency can handle that kind of demand. The tech is not there yet.

The option proposed by Charlie Munger seems to me the most possible, because fiat does not allow the governments of various countries to control the money of their citizens. I think fiat will replace the digital fiat on blockchain, which will be issued by central banks under the leadership of governments. At the moment, I believe that never and under no circumstances will bitcoin replace fiat \ digital fiat. The most that governments will allow is to invest in bitcoin while taking taxes on profits.

Therefore, I see the answer to the question of this topic in the 3rd answer option: "The leader of the crypto market, a niche currency and an alternative investment asset (like now)".