[POLL] What is the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?

[d5000]

I was interested in the following question: What do you consider the most likely long term scenario for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is currently in a growth phase, but eventually it will become an "established" asset. At least many Bitcoin supporters, including me, believe this. In this "final" scenario, Bitcoin could become more stable, with bubbles and crashes being part of the past.

But how exactly will this scenario look like? Bitcoin could, for example, stay in the "alternative asset" category just like now and continue growing, but it could also overtake gold, or even major currencies like the Euro or US dollar, to become a sort of new "value standard". On the other hand, it could also go to zero o become "flippened" by another cryptocurrency (not necessarily the one starting with E).

The poll's options are "incremental", from the most negative to the most positive scenario (so no, I'm not wanting to insinuate at all that Bitcoin's "death" is the most likely scenario ). You are encouraged to post your opinion and fundamentation of your choice but please don't be too generic. Vote changes are possible if you change your mind. I'll evaluate the outcome once a substantial amount of users have voted.

Poll edits:

02-18: Added "Other" option.

[hatshepsut93]

The leader of the crypto market - agree, I believe it will have >90% dominance in the coming years, as the market will tire from altcoins and tokens being nothing more than pump and dump schemes and unrealistic promises


a niche currency - yes, people are mostly satisfied with fiat and fiat payment systems, very few see the benefits of using Bitcoin, especially considering the downsides

 
and an alternative investment asset (like now) - you compare it to gold, but Bitcoin's current marketcap is already a single-digit percentage of gold's marketcap, and after a bit of a price rise it will again be a double-digitl percentage. So it could already be called a major asset.

[g-uid]

The leader of the crypto market - agree, I believe it will have >90% dominance in the coming years, as the market will tire from altcoins and tokens being nothing more than pump and dump schemes and unrealistic promises


a niche currency - yes, people are mostly satisfied with fiat and fiat payment systems, very few see the benefits of using Bitcoin, especially considering the downsides

 
and an alternative investment asset (like now) - you compare it to gold, but Bitcoin's current marketcap is already a single-digit percentage of gold's marketcap, and after a bit of a price rise it will again be a double-digitl percentage. So it could already be called a major asset.

what's your source on gold's marketcap?

[fiulpro]

The funny part is, it's only been a few years since bitcoins came into existence which does mean that it pretty much won quite a lot over time. I do think that for days to come we might be seeing a lot of positive attitude in the crypto market with it getting accepted by people and govern alike, not just becoming an asset but also being used as a currency at times like the Canadian Protest where Government used their powers a bit too much. Bitcoins might be the only thing protecting the people for the time being. It's always going to be on the top not just because of its price but also because of its community as well, which supports it extensively well.

[bitmover]

nd things like that.to bitcoin (like a wbtc in bsc chain) and things like that..major asset,  like a digital gold and an established payment method.

There are probably be many second layer solutions, lighting, many altcoins pegged to bitcoin (like a wbtc in bsc chain), banks backed by bitocin and things like that.

Especially with the growing inflation and negative interest rates all over the globe.

This is my most optimistic scenario.


i also believe that bitcoinmight have a role to play in the future of Defi and NFT.

[mk4]

There's a few options I would pick if we we're allowed to pick multiple answers, but I'll go for: A leading currency or asset, overtaking gold. Depending on how far off we're talking about "long term" here, but I think bitcoin overtaking gold will inevitably happen sometime in the future.

The "overtake major fiat currencies" part: while I hope it would, I'm kinda doubtful of.

[Poker Player]

I agree with most of the answers. I think it will continue to be the No. 1 in the crypto market and will grow in importance as an investment, until it replaces gold as digital gold.

The "overtake major fiat currencies" part: while I hope it would, I'm kinda doubtful of.

I feel the same way. I see it more as a dream than a possible reality.

[Kakmakr]

I think Bitcoin will stay ahead of the pack for a few years, but as with any other technology, it will be replaced by some groundbreaking Crypto currency that will use less energy and one that are easier to use and also lower transaction cost. (The Lightning Network is just too complex for the average user)

The advantage that Bitcoin had over other Crypto currencies was that it was the first Crypto currency that was released, but since then 1000s of Alt coins has been developed and a lot of them have some features that are better than Bitcoin. The first to market advantage has now shrunk and Alternative Crypto currency adoption has increased at a rapid pace. 

[Vatimins]

     If picking multiple options were allowed, I would've picked a few. But I am more leaned on bitcoin becoming a leading currency, overtaking gold. Some of the choice ces are already happening to bitcoin. Just imagine how scarce the supply is and how long before every single bitcoin gets mined. Now think about how many huge people and institutions have not yet made their decisions in buying bitcoin, (which I am positive that they will favor buying bitcoin in the future) the price rise by that time would be scarily high that the current all time high would look very cheap.

[Wind_FURY]

I believe it will overtake Gold as a preferred asset to HODL in the treasury of the Super Powers. I believe it will start with Russia, Iran, then China with North Korea. The United States, Asia and Western Europe, as a response will HODL Bitcoin too, and allow mining in their countries.

[avikz]

It all depends on what you think the team is! If you are looking for next 20 - 25 years, bitcoin will remain as a market leader and the backbone of the entire crypto market just like today. Also it will remain as one of the best performing assets which will find its way into various new markets when more countries will approve bitcoin to be used as an investment.

But I am not overly bullish to say that it will become the main store of value in the world. It will simply remain as it is today!

[arwin100]

I believe it will overtake Gold as a preferred asset to HODL in the treasury of the Super Powers. I believe it will start with Russia, Iran, then China with North Korea. The United States, Asia and Western Europe, as a response will HODL Bitcoin too, and allow mining in their countries.

That's what I'm looking forward to as bitcoin have 21million+ over all supply only and imagine if all people of the world will adopt it so we can expect the price burst if the demand will go up together with major wide spread of adoption. First world countries you mentioned are already now into cryptocurrency and some major super powers are now adopting or thinking about legalization of bitcoin. So no wonder all price soar high prediction will come true in future.

[jrrsparkles]

My assumption is it will be the new era gold so chosen leading asset even overtaking the gold but replacing the fiat currencies and become the most preferred payment for everything is still yet to be known because as of now Bitcoin is considered as asset by most people even long term holders so it will grow more as an asset and people may adopt it as currency if goverment let them to do.

[Leviathan.007]

It's not like we can predict the future of bitcoin but from what we can see right now about bitcoin if everything goes well like this I expect to see a huge adoption during the long term and many countries should make clear rules about bitcoin maybe some of them will ban bitcoin, like china and some other countries will legalize bitcoin also I expect to see the most of the governments trying to earn some money from the tax the get from bitcoin investments, also the ai can be more useful for tracing bitcoin transactions even while using bitcoin mixers.

[iv4n]

My assumption is it will be the new era gold so chosen leading asset even overtaking the gold but replacing the fiat currencies and become the most preferred payment for everything is still yet to be known because as of now Bitcoin is considered as asset by most people even long term holders so it will grow more as an asset and people may adopt it as currency if goverment let them to do.

It will be what gold was before, but with more features! I voted for that, it's how I imagine the long-term scenario for Bitcoin... simply Bitcoin has been on top for 10 years, and I think it will stay there! There are good coins around, great projects, but for now, I don't see some real competitors that can shake Bitcoin first place in the near future!
I would like to see Bitcoin overtaking major fiat currencies, but what are the chances for that to happen?! I guess very very low, and even with some low chances, I think we are talking about some distant future!

[Wexnident]

Major investment asset, rivaling gold. That's for around maybe at the middle of my life maybe? Honestly, even now, It already is one, though rivaling gold may still take some time. It may even exceed it honestly, but I'd probably still stand at the middle point.

I think Bitcoin will stay ahead of the pack for a few years, but as with any other technology, it will be replaced by some groundbreaking Crypto currency that will use less energy and one that are easier to use and also lower transaction cost. (The Lightning Network is just too complex for the average user)

But that's assuming that the Lightning Network would never be simplified no? As other currencies get developed, I reckon there'd also be QoL changes that would make Bitcoin rather easy to use for the average person, though they'd probably still need to understand a few general jargon. Unless a currency would follow the same system of the decentralized idea that Bitcoin had, I hardly think it'd be replaced as a top option.

[mk4]

The "overtake major fiat currencies" part: while I hope it would, I'm kinda doubtful of.

I feel the same way. I see it more as a dream than a possible reality.

Yep. As if the United States or pretty much 95% of governments would allow that to happen. Don't get me wrong — I think after some time bitcoin would probably be accepted widely(but probably mostly online), but overtake major fiat currencies? Nah man.

[d5000]

Thank you for your votes already. I'll not discuss the reasons for your vote as the purpose of this thread is to gather some opinions.

Just a remark about the poll itself:

If picking multiple options were allowed, I would've picked a few.

It is intentional that there are not multiple options, everybody should pick the one which they feel like it could be the most likely one. The more positive/bullish options in the lower part of the poll already include the "achievements" assumed for the above part, for example the option "it will rival gold" assumes that it will remain also the leader of the crypto market. There are some weird scenarios where cryptocurrencies could become so popular that Bitcoin, in the case it was only #2 or #3 of the crypto market, could already rival gold; but I consider them unlikely. However, I'll add an "Other" option, just for the case.

Now that some have voted I can disclose my own vote: I personally think Bitcoin will at least rival gold, this is the option I selected. I don't rule out that it can overtake it (in fact I considered to vote for that option) as it has much more important qualities for the digital age, but tradition can be hard to beat.

Ah, as someone asked for the gold market cap (or better: "the value of all gold in the world"): many estimates I've seen are from 10-15 trillion USD (this estimate gives 12,5 T, and explains also in which form - jewellry, bars etc. - it exists) and thus @hatshepsut93 is right about Bitcoin's "market cap" (which also isn't really a market cap) being in the higher single digits percentage range but can go to double digits if we see another bull run.

[Dunamisx]

Major investment asset, it will rival gold

Personally am much convince that one-day, bitcoin rivalry with gold will be contending and then people would have been satisfied that the two are the major investment and asset one could not afford doing without.

[el kaka22]

    If picking multiple options were allowed, I would've picked a few. But I am more leaned on bitcoin becoming a leading currency, overtaking gold. Some of the choice ces are already happening to bitcoin. Just imagine how scarce the supply is and how long before every single bitcoin gets mined. Now think about how many huge people and institutions have not yet made their decisions in buying bitcoin, (which I am positive that they will favor buying bitcoin in the future) the price rise by that time would be scarily high that the current all time high would look very cheap.

I would have done the same as well. I believe that it will not be the leader, I believe that there will be better ones in the future and then bitcoin will be top 10 for decades so I do not think that it will be gone. However, I believe that even while not being number one, it will be fighting above gold, not too much for a long time, it requires like 20-30 years at least to be away from gold if you ask me but in 10 years it will surely fight a level over gold. In that case multiple options is needed. Rivaling fiat is also a deal but major? I am not sure about that.

I think about dollar the moment I think about major fiat currencies and bitcoin being more valuable than dollar as a marketcap is impossible, that much I know for sure. Which is why I believe that it is really not that much possible for bitcoin to actually challenge a major one, but definitely be more valuable than some of them at lower nations.