Bitcoin Forum

It seems that Putin's gamble is not working out as he had hoped. He is moving militarily rather slower than he anticipated and now apart he has taken two economic measures:

"President Vladimir Putin banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts, potentially putting much of the country’s $478 billion in external debt at risk of default."

Source: Putin’s Ban on Foreign Debt Service Raises $478 Billion Question. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/putin-bans-russians-from-servicing-foreign-debt-over-sanctions)

To stop the bleeding of the ruble, which is plummeting even in the face of a weak USD due to over-printing, he has also ordered that (https://thepressunited.com/updates/russian-exporters-ordered-to-convert-most-foreign-currency-to-rubles/): "Russian businesses that trade abroad must sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles...

A picture is worth a thousand words:

https://i.postimg.cc/QCv8Qnq4/ruble.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

This is starting to cause panic among its population, which has rushed en masse to withdraw cash from ATMs:

Russians rush to withdraw cash at ATMs as rouble plunges; central bank hikes rates to 20%  (https://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/russians-rush-to-withdraw-cash-at-atms-as-west-targets-banks-over-ukraine)

The most important thing in the conflict is the human drama with dead, wounded and displaced people, but I wanted to open thread to comment in this economy section what could be the medium term future of the Russian currency and economy.

I wonder if some of these measures affect Best_Change, which I understand is a business located in Russia, but I don't know if they will want to comment anything.

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.

There are so many factors that can influence the price that we can't know but I would say it is influencing it a little bit.

According to a forum fellow member in another thread:


Although he does not say where he gets his information from.

The Bitcoin market has gone green today particularly in the second half
and is now $41,465, this is coinciding with a 40% drop in the Rouble today
and is still down 20%. This affects everyone in Russia so I would agree that
there are a lot of people moving into Bitcoin, the evidence from BESTCHANGE
is there with an increase of 20%.

The sanctions imposed on the state of Russia has been quite steep and was always going to have significant effect on their economy and impact the ruble.
How Russia would react would be interesting to see, as their major plays from this point is their reserve assets and their gold stashes.

Bitcoin provides a safe haven for citizens from unstable nations and this could be a reason for Russians to switch to bitcoin and consequently improve interest and demand.

The effect will certainly come down on Russia. Rubie has lost value and inflation will rise soon because that is the next hard time the people will feel. The people have no choice than taking money out fiat to cryptocurrency and bitcoin is having that required effect. Is a bull now because of what is happening with the sanctions on Russia.

The economic sanction had gone effective immediately. With many financial service abroad have been banning and departing from the Russian government, they're certainly going down. As for the price of bitcoin, it had gone up and possibly Russians were the ones that have contributed on its recent increase. And as the Russian government dealing with the war and the economic sanction, they're also playing their part of it and they have to shutdown their stock market and that really caused their economy one heavy plummet.

It seems to be stabilizing at around 104 rub per USD. The reports over the weekend were something crazy like 150-175 rub per USD. Either way, never seen a currency lose this much value in such little time. This is some record.

Now here is what is interesting. If you go to Binance, the rate is 94 rub per USD. Why is that? Basically seems like an arbitrage opportunity. However I am guessing is due to fear that you won’t be able to transfer those RUB out due to sanctions. If it was easy then obviously the arbitrage wouldn’t be there with such a huge spread.

LOL.. this is a complete meltdown... before the oil prices crashed in 2014, the exchange rate was like 1 USD = 30 RUR. Now it is 1 USD = 105 RUR. I have sympathy for anyone who holds his savings in RUR. Pension funds, savings accounts.etc become worthless if being held in the Ruble. One positive that may come out of this is, it may become more difficult for the oligarchs to move their money to London or Paris, and this may force them to spend at least some of that money inside Russia. Putin is not going to be bothered as long as crude stays above $100 per barrel.

Huh.  Well that would probably explain why so many countries are looking to stop this conflict before Russia puts itself into so much war debt that repaying all the other lenders becomes impossible.  I have no doubt that world leaders are sympathetic to Ukraine's plight (and they should be), but I'm pretty sure that first and foremost they're thinking about themselves and the bottom line as far as what this thing is going to cost their countries.

What a mess, what a mess.

Man, I hope pension funds and retirement accounts are sticking to the stock and bond markets instead of dabbling in foreign currency (especially Russia's).  But I bet there's a lot of currency traders who are making a killing on this--and also a lot who are losing their shirts.

...

This makes me wonder about user safety now re using Russian BTC mixers.  Could be a problem it seems to me.  My recent thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5387780.0

Nato state sanctions seem to have started to have an impact on the Russian economy, now many Russian citizens are starting to try to withdraw their money from banks, in recent days the ruble exchange rate has continued to decline and this is the impact of sanctions imposed by western countries to Russia, one the only solution for russian citizens is to exchange rubles today for dollars or bitcoins as an alternative to keep the value of their money from a more significant decline, I think what you say is probably true, the rise in bitcoin price today may be triggered by the purchasing power of the russian people against bitcoin in anticipation of their currency depreciating exchange rate.

It's a possibility but I don't think that it's the sole or the biggest factor for the pump of bitcoin, maybe play a large role but that's another story. Ruble will continue to go down as the economic sanctions continue, hopefully the war will eventually end because of the economic sanctions and the price continue to go higher.

I think one positive thing from this war, thought not that I’m happy it’s playing out in this way, is the importance of “being your own bank”.  Below is more to what you mention here in terms of Russians taking money out of their ATMs in droves. As for Best Change, I’m curious if it’s a supporter of what the government is doing or not. Might have a hard time wearing that going forward if it were me.


https://i.ibb.co/pbdJyF5/D2-E73-AAE-999-B-4-D89-8-F14-B0-A7-BE9-AF69-A.jpg (https://ibb.co/34cBzZQ)

I read the information that yesterday Biden asked the cryptocurrency exchanges to block any transactions that are connected with Russia. On the other hand, the Russian government wants to confiscate the population's deposits in its banks in order to support the falling economy and the war in Ukraine. Therefore, it will be increasingly difficult to convert non-cash rubles into bitcoin in Russia.
The Russians were afraid to storm their power and stop their mad Putin, now they have to storm ATMs to withdraw some of the cash.
The ruble is gradually turning into ordinary paper. Putin made a grand gesture to the Russians, promising to pay for every soldier killed in Ukraine to his family money in rubles, which corresponds to 50 dollars. But this amount continues to decrease due to ongoing inflation.

I think the major reason that the currency is losing value is fear or panic. The currency of a country gets to be affected during such times. The panic is the uncertainty of the next step of action by EU. What makes the Russian economic situation getting worse now is all European countries are against Russia and threatening to shut down her economy. Imagine no flight is landing in euro , activities are crumbling. If the war continues, the rubie is going to fall more and inflation is going to tripple.

I wonder if Russian billionaires are doing this as we speak?  I believe this is a more probable influence than the average Russian investing.  The rich already know their wealth is being hunted down right now and their best option is to move all to an uncensored, decentralized currency.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

I'm not in support of this war as I care only for peace, this war will only make crypto get to a better place faster because now Ukraine and Russia people will understand the real purpose of crypto and BTC no wonder the market is recovering fast today.

Propably end of Russian Central bank and wakeup call for every individuals who hold their assets in the form of Fiat. How can government says what to do with our earned money? They didn't gave it for free we all worked our ass to get some and multiply with our smart work for years then suddenly an individual order what we should hold?

https://i.ibb.co/NK13pfY/ruble-17th.jpg

The ruble appears to be ranked 17th, which shows a decline.

Inflation and currency devaluation are both interesting and confusing to me. I thought venezuela, argentina and turkey were in dire straits given the state of their inflation which greatly overshadows russia's current numbers.

But it seems that to native turks, their inflation is merely business as usual and nothing to get excited about. And so I wonder what true effects a bit of inflation will have upon russia's overall economy, if any. Given that we have seen other nations achieve far worse inflation, without it appearing to be sufficient to drive native born citizens to revolt against the government or engage in other drastic measures. The only tangible effect of inflation appears to be greater poverty and declined standard of living. Everything else remains intact.

Well, what are the use of people withdrawing Fiat currency from the Banks, but the Fiat currency are losing value at a record rate? Soon the Russian Ruble will be worthless ..like the Zimbabwean Dollar and they will not be able to use it.  ::) 

Russia should have anticipated that the Ruble will suffer ...like Zimbabwe did when Robert Mugabe apposed the West. If these sanctions intensify... we will see a 1 Trillion Ruble banknote. I will convert my fiat (Ruble) to Bitcoin as soon as possible to try and protect it's value against hyperinflation.  ;)

In a way I'm sorry for them as well, however we need to be honest we knew this was coming, we knew that at some point in time Russia was going to invade Ukraine so Russian citizens had years to prepare themselves for the situation that we are seeing.

So anyone that is losing a great deal of money is doing so because they did not have the foresight to exchange their local currency for something else that will retain its value in a better way, however while this is without a doubt going to affect the population I'm not so sure the government is going to be that affected by the exchange rate, as it is known that a weak currency is good when you want to export a lot of goods out of your country.

They can do what they wanted to because it was from them and people are only borrowing it even if they say that it was on their own hands. This is the downside of using a government/bank owned currency because it can be frozen anytime. There is no one to be blamed here but us if we still continue using fiats.

We have already been warned before about the risks and we are being recommended to use bitcoin. When we work we should prefer to get paid in bitcoin, btc is also ideal for future savings than storing money in the banks because you don't know what can happen with your money. Its value are also going to decrease over time.

All this is good news for currency traders. But for the ordinary investors and pensioners within Russia, it is disastrous. Many of them would have lost a large part of their life savings. Whatever savings they have now is worth only around 30% of what it was in 2014. And given the fact that Russia imports a large part of its food products and electronics, the inflation rate is also going to go up. The only saving grace is that the government will be getting more rubles for every barrel of crude oil exported by the oil companies.

Russia would be the one that's going to benefit the most in this scenario though although it's going to be a problem for them though as there's only so much bitcoin that they can get out of it. Of course no one is supporting this war, pretty sure that the only ones that support this slaughter is the higher ups in Russia.

If we look at it actually almost all countries in the world condemn what Russia has done to Ukraine,
I don't know how this war will end but I hope all of this can be over soon,
I think humanity and peace are above all else so we'll see what happens in the future

I think things like this are what are going to drive bitcoin up in the long run. People are going to learn the hard way that state currencies are ruinous and that the best way to keep your savings is Bitcoin. The only thing that is missing for people to adopt it more massively is a decrease in volatility, which is what many people are afraid of.

So far it hasn't even been a week of conflict and things are already so out of control. Inflation is rising while the Ruble is dropping sharply. It is crazy to believe that Putin factored in all these Western sanctions and negative economic effects on the Russian economy when he planned the war with Ukraine.  It is very hard to get any independent news from the frontlines, there are a lot of Ukrainian videos that showing abandoned or destroyed Russian equipment, while the Russian TV shows they take Ukrainian soldiers that are captivity and large columns of tanks and equipment heading for Kiev. The question I ask myself is how long can Ukraine withstand that Russian pressure? Putin must have factor a time period for Russia to withstand that economic cost of war, it might be 4 weeks, or 8 weeks, or even longer. But eventually Russia needs to find a way to reconcile things with the world and try to get access to western markets again. It also remains to be seen how far is China willing to go to support Russia.

In countries like Russia, Zimbabwe and Venezuela, people may line up to convert their national currency to Bitcoin, and this may weaken the national currency further. And I don't expect the government to stand still and allow this to happen. They will take more and more authoritarian stance against the cryptocurrency users, else the national currencies will get destroyed. So it needs to be seen whether the users in these countries will be able to purchase cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Very nice example to prove how fiat's value is derived by nothing but how strong are other fiat's holding it. If all of them have targeted your economy you alone won't be able to handle your fiat and it will burst. Same which is going to happen to Russia if things don't stop soon. There is just one way Russia can handle this war it's using the printing machine but which also they would be able to do only until the economy goes into hyperinflation.

Talking about Best Change, I didn't know it was based out of Russia, but I think it's most of the operations don't involve Ruble, they do crypto to crypto exchanges and in fiat primarily dollar exchanging.

It is amazing how hard and how fast the world has come together in condemning this invasion. He was most likely expecting a whimpering response like he saw in the 2014 Crimea annexation but this time is an extremely harsh backlash. There was zero justification for this war and it's finally exposed his incompetence. Unfortunately he is just a little old man now, so many other people dying is of little consequence to his future. Ukrainians and Russians, he's happy for them all to get slaughtered for his pathetic attempt at a legacy, he did nothing else for Russia in the last 20 years. I'm just waiting to see the devastation that will be reaped on the Russian stock market when they reopen after 3 days of forced closure.

It looks like it has stabilized a little. Currently sitting at 100 per USD for many exchanges. I think the efforts that they took such as making interest 20%, injecting money into the economy and preventing selling of foreign currencies is helping. At least temporarily.

The stock market and everything in the USA seems stable too. The only thing that is ripping higher is the price of crude oil which hit $120 an hour ago or so.

This is pretty bad since we were around $80-90 a few months ago. And with inflation where it is this is going to hurt many people. Especially when it’s Time to buy gas.

There is a very strong possibility that at some point something like this is going to happen, but at the same time when people are confronted with the choice of obeying a nonsensical law and keep doing what they are doing which brings food to the table they will pick the latter all the time.

So even if weak governments begin to incarcerate cryptocurrency users in the near future that is not going to be enough deterrent against them, and not only that, such a thing will lower even further the popularity of the government creating even more resistance against such laws.

Guess what, 140 USD per RUB! The weakest ruble ever, and it's going to get worse since Putin wants to cut the Internet. If that happens they'll be like North Korea. I said that in one of my previous posts a couple days ago, Russia is going to become isolated and abandoned and there was time to act and there were options to stop it, but instead of looking for a peaceful resolution Putin demanded that Ukraine simply gives up and stops resisting. I hope he goes to where the ruble is going.

Dead bear bounce!


Yeah, trying to live in a glass bubble, shutting down the stock market, not allowing the population to convert to USD and euro, forcing companies to sell foreign currency to prop it, it the end the free market will always win, there will be a parallel exchange rate and then really it's going to go to hell.
I've told poeple numerous times, that's not how reserves work, that's not how sanctions work,  the 600 billion are nearly useless, it doesn't matter how big the country is, what matters is that it was poor as hell before, and now it will get even poorer.

And what poeple still fail to understand is that it doesn't matter that oil and gas go through the roof, if nobody buys it, Ural mix is trading at 90$, a full 25$ discount compared to Brent because poeple are not buying. And gas prices went up because Russia was not pumping, so how much you make if gas is at 1 trillion per cubic cm but you sell zero? Cause the moment they would sell the price would go down and everything they are pumping now is old contracts at far lower prices.

But now, Russia is stronk, Russia is big, Russia is ...in deep shit! And the only thing they have left and have an oversupply of is their pride, pride which will be their final nail in the coffin since it prevents them from making the decisions they should.


Putin never thought of that.
All Russians and even westerners thought Ukraine will fall in 3 days so basically by the time they would be able to react it would be all over as in Crimea.
If the Russians would have captured Kyiv and put another leader there basically what were we going to do, nothing, accept it and that's it, but people are fighting back and the west knows that Russia will never be able to control it, so sanctions now are hitting hard and the more the conflict goes and civilians are falling victims the deeper the hole Putin is digging himself and the country in.

Putin is not going to care as long as oil prices go up. Brent crude touched $139 per barrel yesterday and that will bring around $1 billion per day to the Russian treasury from oil exports alone (anything above $27 per barrel is taxed at close to 100% rate in Russia, and they export around 8 million barrels of crude every day). Natural gas prices are at record highs and that will also add to the revenues. And since Ruble is going down, the government needs to spend less money on salaries and pensions.

Biden made things easy for Putin, by sabotaging the Keystone XL pipeline and banning fracking on federal lands.

I don’t know what benefit Russia will get from the current military attack on Ukraine, but the international sanctions that have already been introduced and are being prepared will eventually set its economy back many decades. Russia is fast becoming a pariah and will most likely be another North Korea. Just thinking about how Russia will defend itself against sanctions is one thing. But Russian soldiers are now continuing to launch missile and bomb attacks on civilian cities in Ukraine, causing great damage to its economy and killing civilians.
Already now, the International Criminal Court in The Hague has begun to consider the application of Ukraine against Russia on the genocide of the Ukrainian people. The guilt of the Putin regime in this is obvious, and as a result, Ukraine will have to compensate for the damage caused.
Foreign exchange reserves in Russia were about 640 billion dollars and about 70 percent were in the accounts of banks in other states and have already been frozen. In all likelihood, they will go to Ukraine as compensation for damage. Other property belonging to the state of the Russian Federation and its citizens will also be confiscated. Russia will eventually be a secondary and impoverished country. Aggression will have to be paid for, and this is logical and natural.

but still the fall of the ruble will have an impact on the Russian economy. maybe they can get by with the oil this time. but for the long term and the many sanctions, will make this big country not good. so the only option was to withdraw their invasion as soon as possible, that way they could avoid worse trouble.

Oil price is skyrocketing which I think in that area they will bounce back and Russia knows that already that's why their government is no worried about those temporary sanctions happening to them. But feel pity to those people who go affected especially those other citizens or overseas workers who work on Russia because their income will be totally affected on current economic situation on Russia especially for those people who save Ruble in their bank accounts.

After Putin lost 11,000 troops, he needed to stop. The Russian Ruble is now worth nothing and Putin earned one million as a bounty.

This is not funny since now he is loosing and is cornered, he has used so many missiles more than 600 already that his military power is crumbling.

He won't be able to keep this up for long, the only weapon he has left is the Nuclear that is why the world is extra cautious about him.

The guy is going down and wants to take everyone down with him. Russian economy is done for and their gas business is dying, their country is not self sufficient at all and they know this.

So you are saying that if Biden allowed the world to get worse and allow the climate change to hurt the world faster so that humanity would cease to exist quicker (which it will, just slower thanks to those two things) then Russia would have been in a worse situation? I would prefer to see the world stay alive a bit longer before I allow Russia to win or lose or whatever, wars will impact one generation at most, climate change will impact the whole existence of humans on this planet and that is saying something.

Russia will also have a HUGE hard time the moment Saudis end up dropping the price. Trump ended up making them increase the price and not cut prices lower, Biden could make one phone call right now and make the price go to 50 bucks tomorrow, but I guess oil companies do not prefer that.

Russia is a country that is rich in natural resources. Western sanctions will harm the western countries more than Russia, because they need these resources. Already energy bills and gasoline prices in countries such as the United Kingdom have shot up by as much as 200%. And analysts expect the prices to go up even further. Heavy industries are also impacted, due to the rising cost of natural gas. On the other hand, countries such as India and China are going to gain, because they will be able to source these resources at a discount from Russia.

I don't know where you get that from. What Biden did is to continue polluting the same but costing Americans more. He stopped producing to buy abroad what is not produced in the USA.

Returning to the central theme of the thread, the ruble continues unstoppably downward. I don't know how this is going to be despite Putin's measures, since the currency is devaluating by leaps and bounds and these things don't usually end well.

We are approaching a global economic crisis where the vast majority of the population will be impoverished.

In the West, our currencies are not doing so well either, although they do not devalue as fast as the ruble. And the dollar, although it sucks, is serving as a safe haven, so it has done well. But rising energy prices and their impact on a lot of products will mean a loss of purchasing power.

Not a ruble is going to hell. The whole country is going to hell, in which, in the near future, a real collapse and division into many independent states, and I hope with the control of the established authorities. After the new sanctions on hydrocarbons adopted yesterday, Russia no longer has a chance. What you are seeing now is agony. You know, like a person in the final stages of cancer - he seems to be alive and breathing, and even speaks and communicates, but - there is no way back, death is ahead, and there is nothing to help. Just waiting for the final...

http://ibb.co.com/images/ukr7c8d0aba53f7ca27.jpg

Germany decided to go to 100% renewable energy by 2035, which should be self sufficient for the whole nation. I do not know how much that costs, and since Germany is a smaller nation than the USA, maybe it is easier, I have zero clue about the costs and the benefits of it. However, if the topic is to be independent when it comes to energy needs, and also cleaner world? Then what Germany aims to do should be what every nation aims to do right?

I am not well educated on the subject, this is just my "guess" and that’s all, I just assumed, no idea if that’s true. What will Russia do then? Ruble lost 50%+ already and it will continue to lose more, they need to find some trading partners to replace that lost money asap, otherwise they are screwed for sure.

The reasons for this decision are extremely simple. Russia, out of habit, shot itself in the leg - when this winter, it took up natural energy terrorism. As you remember, after there were delays in the launch of Nord Stream 2, Russia did not come up with anything better than to limit the supply of energy resources to the EU! Throughout the Russian media, to applause and laughter, 24x7 speeches were flowing "well, Europe - will you not fulfill our requirements? WE will freeze you all! Ha-ha-ha! And you will not do anything to us!". And as if Putin's right hand in Germany, Merkel, did not try to play into the hands of Russia, the EU did understand that this is real energy terrorism, in reality they will constantly manipulate and force us, considering themselves "the king of the situation." Therefore, the EU and Germany, including, have made a very difficult decision for themselves - to actually break the connection with Russian energy resources, and become independent from any subsequent Russian terrorist steps.

http://ibb.co.com/images/ukr7c8d0aba53f7ca27.jpg

If we look at official exchange rates the downfall has mostly stopped, mainly because you can't buy dollars and euros anymore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/08/ruble-dollar-exchange-barred/
due to reasons. The same reasons some exchanges claimed to affect them to the point of shutting down and disappearing when the reason was the same as here, they have no USD left so they are forcing poeple to keep their money in rubles.


Oh, the CB of Russia being incompetent again, what a surprise.

And with nobody being able to sell rubles for USD officially then it means the exchange rate can go in only one direction theoretically, but this is when the black market starts forming and soon nobody will give a damn about the official rates.

Going full on renewable energy is not just feasible for energy independence, or just climate change, but it is also getting economically profitable as well. Most companies who are doing it gets help from the government as well. You can spend a million dollars to get a huge wind turbine, but you will be also getting some help from the government to get it.

I know a guy who works at a company with 26 of them, it is such a huge company and yet all they have is 26 items, that's it, but when that 26 items are 26 huge wind turbines, they became like top 2000 company in our country. He said that even 1 hour shortage on one of them makes such a huge difference to their business, but at the same time they pay 20% less on taxes on average and many other benefits.

Putin won't care because it has China backing him every step of the way. I'm pretty sure China will finance most of Russia's military and economic operations after fierce sanctions imposed by the West. To be able to stop Putin for good, Western countries must completely isolate Russia and its allies from world trade. Not only that, but all countries must unilaterally stop the import of Russian gas and oil. Once that is done, Putin will have no choice but to end the war with Ukraine. But the West's "softness" will only make matters worse, leading to Russia's uprising in the long term.

When Russia becomes self-sustainable, its own currency (the Ruble) will rise back from the ground up. The Ruble may be going to "hell" right now, but the effects might not last for long if Western countries don't tighten their stance against Russia. The ones that will be mostly affected are everyday Russian people as a worthless Ruble will lead many towards extreme poverty. Things are just getting started, so I can't imagine how everything will look for Russia and the whole world by the end of 2022. Just my opinion :)

Oh my God, that’s very bad condition for Russia and can’t believe that leader can actually take such hard steps just to acquire one land. This will cost him more money to rebuild the economy of his country than what he paid for land acquisition in Ukraine. Russia is on its path to destruction inside out. I just can’t imagine the rate of inflation that might be rising in the Russia at this stage. If they continue the war, the situation will even worsen and this will cause retaliation of other countries from Russian land in terms of businesses and employment. Most of them have already banned the services and product so no wonder Russia is on the verge of broken continent.

Congratulations to all, especially Russia :)
"Venezuela will sell oil to the United States."
The world is not such an idiot as Russia and the Kremlin underfunded. The world wants to live and develop and not degrade and close.
Caracas intends to increase oil production in 2022 to 2-3 million barrels per day and sell it in the United States.
"Venezuela is open to investment, oil and gas production, oil and gas stability around the world, including the United States. We are ready to sell US oil and gas, we must not politicize economic issues," said Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). President Nicolas Maduro.
Nothing personal, just business :)

Great move by Biden, what a strategist. Changing the energy he buys from Putin to beg to buy it from Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia, when he could produce it himself. I guess when they burn the gas and oil bought by the US to those countries, the smoke will be ecological smoke, or so he pretends to make us believe.

But with China backing them it is impossible to completely corner them, after all sanctioning Russia is one thing but the US cannot do the same with China, if they send some sanctions to China to try to weaken Russia the Chinese can respond in kind and really weaken the US.

So even if the Russian economy as a whole is going to hell, and there is a huge boycott against anything Russian in the west, that is not going to stop Putin which seems hell bent on conquering Ukraine at all costs.

While I'm definitely anti-Putin, I think we need to be careful about cheering too much at the downfall of Russia because at present he looks like a complete fool. Now, he is standing in front of the world with what is meant to be one of the scariest and top military might, yet it is getting destroyed all over the place - they haven't even achieved air superiority so far. Couple that with devastating sanctions that we've not even begun to see the effects of so far, and it's getting worse all the time for this man. If he's not already there, it's looking like he has nothing left to lose so might as well get even more destructive in this senseless war. There is no chance he's going to touch other NATO countries, but he can still unleash even more hell in Ukraine so who knows what will happen next.

But with China backing them it is impossible to completely corner them, after all sanctioning Russia is one thing but the US cannot do the same with China, if they send some sanctions to China to try to weaken Russia the Chinese can respond in kind and really weaken the US.

So even if the Russian economy as a whole is going to hell, and there is a huge boycott against anything Russian in the west, that is not going to stop Putin which seems hell bent on conquering Ukraine at all costs.
[/quote]

And why did you decide that China is a partner of Russia and will take the side of Russia? :)
Compare the US-West/China trade balance and Russia/China? Nothing worries you? And now look at the subject area of ​​trade of the Russian Federation / China? The Russian Federation is a raw material appendage of China, which, moreover, now owns vast territories that historically belong to China, and in the east of Russia there has already been a long-standing expansion of the Chinese. There are already cities and towns in Russia where Chinese is predominantly spoken. The question is - what is more profitable for China - to stop economic relations with the West or continue to act as the "ruler of Russia" and buy from her for a penny the resources necessary for the economy?

Yes, I hope we'll see it happening soon. Ruble lost half of its value, if not more, and while it's good news, there's much more going on in terms of both sanctions and major businesses leaving Russia. The collapse of the Russian economy is imminent. As for Russia itself, I guess it depends a lot on the political will of people within various regions, as now is a good time to say goodbye to Russia and declare their independence.
And, referring to more recent discussions in the thread, thankfully, Putin is not backed by China. China's not stupid enough to support Russia right now because China's economy is also very dependent on collaboration with Western countries, and China has long been more of a fan of economic interdependencies, not military interventions that destabilize the region and the economy.

Venezuela was a place that was seen as run by dictator for a while now. And it hasn't been really changing at all, Maduro is still a dictator that causes his citizens to die of starvation and the world doesn't care, they think he is a dictator so the regular citizens deserve to die with all the sanctions.

It didn't hurt Maduro, he got what he wanted in the end, it required Russia to attack Ukraine to get Maudro what he wanted so it wasn't certain but at the end we are talking about him still in power while all those citizens suffered for nothing at all. I do not see this as a win for USA, it is a win for Maduro and a loss for his citizens.

Looks like the ruble is in, um rubble.... I see nothing but trouble for Russians in the short term.

Unfortunately it's the civilians that will suffer from the devaluing of the ruble. Putin and his cronies well get by just fine and China would probably prop them up if things go from bad to worse, just like Beijing prop the Ils.


Well even before this Maduro kinda fell away from the public consciousness. Don't Venezuela only sell crude oil? Last I read they're not even capable of refining the oil they pump. And they sell it pretty much mostly to China.

When you are desperate enough, even a dictator could be the solution to your problems. Maduro is still a fake president that lost the elections and kept the power with the soldiers and he should have been outed years ago.

However, if you look at what is going on with Russia right now, if Biden didn't do this deal, then the population he is responsible for serving could have ended up suffering a lot more. They are not getting it right now and right away, but even the deal itself dropped the prices a bit. This is why I believe that we should not be really doing something that is judgemental to Biden right now, he did something wrong on foreign relations point of view, but did it to help his citizens.

That proves that HODLing Bitcoin is good as a hedge. HODLing Bitcoin is not only as a "financial hedge", but as a hedge against the people/leaders in your government in case they make a stupid decision. 8)

I'd consider buying oil from Venezuela a dumb move since the country is a long-time ally of Russia. Financing Venezuela would be no different than financing Russia itself. The same can be said about doing business with China. As long as Western countries and the EU keep dealing with Russia's allies, their efforts to "punish" Putin will be futile. The Ruble may be going to hell, but that may not last for long as Russia seeks alternative ways to save its economy. With China by its side, anything's possible. These are uncertain times we're living in, so we should be prepared for the worst. Just my thoughts ;D

It was always obvious that holding crypto was a better way to hedge yourself against the fiat world. I mean we are in a world where fiat will be devalued for any reason at all and it is a constant thing. How many nations had negative inflation at any given minute, how many in the world have their wealth saved against inflation?

I am not saying that there are none, I am just saying that it is not common and that is why I believe that crypto is a lot better for everyday regular people like us. This means that we just need to keep it in crypto, and pick ones that are not terrible and will go down, and we will be right for the rest of our lives.

After Europe saw an aggressive Russia, most states will switch to renewable energy sources much faster. They have already decided to get rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas very quickly.
Yes, some states will significantly lose from the imposed sanctions against Russia. However, they will simply have a destructive effect on Russia. There is simply no other way. A dollar there already costs 300 rubles, and it seems that this is not the limit, but only the beginning.
In general, in my opinion, with such an organization as the UN, it is necessary to create rapid reaction forces in order to quickly repel the aggressor in such cases by military means, and not by economic ones. It would be much more efficient.

 Of course, the reality is very different from his plans. Even if in the future we manage to stabilize the situation, it will be very different from the previous indicators. Its no longer possible to return to the previous values. If a default happens, the country will go back to the 1990s, and this is a complete failure! I think it will have a big impact on the rest of the world.

We can't be so sure that their future is hopeless. They will recover but it would take years, maybe.
But if you are an investor, who believes that ruble can recover in the future, you can buy now while it is cheap.
But you need to wait and that waiting period is not a guarantee also. It is your choice if you want to take the risk.
The recovery period maybe long, but I think, they can. It is not the end of the world for them.
Remember, there are countries that still want to trade with them, just like China.

Unfortunately the high prices of oil means that Maduro will remain in power for a longer period of time, after all Venezuela could sustain their system with high prices of oil but when they went down that is when things fell apart relatively quickly.

But now that high prices of oil are back Maduro will have a chance to try to buy the loyalty of the military and some key sectors of the economy, keeping himself in power in the process and delaying or maybe even preventing something that seemed inevitable, which was his eventual fall.

Bitcoin has never faced a war situation between the two superpowers before. This means that we cant say with conviction that it will act as a hedge in case this situation developed into a world war. Since bitcoin is currency pegged with the stocks, so if the stocks dump in the world war, then bitcoin will dump too. There is no value for fiat currencies, especially for the country in which the sanctions are proposed and applied. People of russia have no choice but to sell ruble and buy something better like bitcoin.

Of course bitcoin has never seen a war before, unlike gold who has proven itself to be a good hedge. However, bitcoin as digital gold could be the next great asset that could be used right now. Specially if you are in either of the two countries, when your money is worthless. So the best thing to do is this situation is to have your money hedge it to bitcoin, very simply if you wanted to protect your wealth during and after the war.

Well, as you know, politics is something irreverent to everything that represents good customs, on the one hand there is talk about Venezuela's oil, and yes, they are allies of Russia, but on the other hand the USA negotiates with Venezuela and on the In a short time the Colombian government went to the same president to speak to Biden in the White House to tell him that Colombian oil is better than Venezuelan oil, then the roles are reversed and now the business is in Colombia, there is talk that there are Russian bases in Venezuela , and that there are US bases in Colombia, then this game of give and take is simply to have a status quo and guarantee US consumerism, the US is not interested in Ukraine, it will no longer enter NATO, we must be realistic, Russia it will not leave it anymore, now the USA's concern is to be well with them, and well with Europe, then the USA wants to be well with God and the Devil, so these are things that they do not see in Europe, or they see it and turn a blind eye, That's why I say, the conflict is political or geo-political where the only ones who benefit are the rulers and the people suffer, in this war the people never win.

Now the US is pampering not only to Venezuela, but to Iran as well. Still, the increased output from these two, on top of the increase from the other OPEC nations won't be able to fill the shortfall from Russia. If the Americans and their allies go ahead with their stupid move of prohibiting oil and gas exports from Russia, then the global economy will collapse in a matter of few months. Crude has already crossed three digits and is on course for $150 per barrel in the short term and $200+ in the long term. Natural gas prices are now at oil equivalent rates of $300-$400 per barrel in Europe.

We don’t need to ask, one thing for sure is that it is going to affect every company In one way or the other.
But, I don’t know why a lot of people there has decided to withdraw their money from the ATM like you have said. If they withdraw their money they are still holding the same Fiat, unless they have plans to exchange it for Bitcoin.

If they should exchange it for Bitcoin they would be more safe as Bitcoin would continue to have more value and also save them from their Fiat money that has been depreciating as of recent. Anyone living in Russia needs to look for a solution and Bitcoin is the solution they all really need.

Although bitcoin is still new for now, it is definitely a really good option for anyone that wants to use it as a hedge for value. First it has a limited supply, and by having a limited means that it is going to be increasing in value as more and more people continues to invest in the bitcoin market.

A lot of people are still getting to know about Bitcoin, we should be looking forward to more investors in the future. And there are also institutions that are now considering bitcoin an asset to invest in. There are already those of them that have started investing and they will keep investing, while more continues to join and invest.

When a nation tries to take over a whole another nation, and if that victim nation is also white, then people will burn worlds to put up a front, especially if the attacker is already an enemy in mind. It is clear to me that we are talking about Russia and how the world already hates them for so many years, it is not a new thing. We had "red scare" in the USA like 60 years ago or so as well and it wasn't a new thing.

So, we should not be shocked that the world fell right back into that once again. As long as Russia is Russia, and the way they live is the same, and their culture is the same, the west will find a way to hate them, and sometimes they are right.

maybe bitcoin adoption occurs this way, namely a war that makes it difficult for people to access their money, especially when they are abroad, so bitcoin is here as a solution. this answers previous doubts where bitcoin is only a means of investment and trading because the main function has not been achieved. this way more people will see the future of bitcoin, and now investing is a profitable way to go into the future later

Exactly. In order to repel Russia, military action must be enforced. Economic sanctions are only a short-term remedy to slow down the invasion (not stop it). Russia can simply rely on China or even crypto to make its economy rise from the ground up. I believe Western countries and the EU haven't taken military action against Russia simply because they're afraid of doing so. Putin already has nukes at his disposal, so a direct war with Russia will only lead us to a full-scale nuclear disaster.

It's most likely Russia will take over Ukraine, leading towards the further deterioration of the world order. A victory over Ukraine will simply mean that democracy has lost. How will Russia's currency perform in the future, is beyond me. Putin is a wise person, so it's probable he has a plan to get Russia back on its feet. Just my opinion :)

It is definitely a great feeling that you could have your value always at the same place. Back in the day people used houses for the same calculation. Like if you had 100 bucks in 90's, that would be very low but you could get a small land for that, today you can't even buy a basket full of groceries with that, whereas the land now costs 15k. So today bitcoin is used the same way, 5 years ago dollar was a lot more valuable and now worths a lot less but bitcoin worths a lot more so you are saving yourself.

I believe that we should not be shocked if somehow bitcoin goes triple or even higher soon if the governments fail to keep this crisis at bay, fiat world could get worse and that would only help crypto.

When European countries have to pay for gas supplies not in dollars or euros, but in rubles, the ruble will undoubtedly strengthen. Nobody will like this solution, but there is no choice. If European countries buy gas from Russia, they will boost the Russian economy and strengthen the ruble. Of course, this will require a change in long-term contracts, but in our time everything can be.

Since a direct confrontation will be even more of a disaster than what we are seeing now  then the only card the US has over the table is to arm Ukraine, something they are already doing, and to try to do so as well with countries that are outside of NATO in order to create a deterrent against another Russian Invasion.

Will this work? It is impossible to know as we do not know what kind of plans Putin has for the region, and we have yet to see the long term effects the sanctions will have on the Russian economy.

EU countries will likely not buy gas from Russia after the war in Ukraine. Today the US president started discussing with other countries like Canada and EU countries on how to stop purchase of Russian gas and strengthen the sanctions. Rubie will not be used in EU for trade instead euro or dollar.

Yes, but the question is how long it will take to implement that. They're not going to stop buying Russian gas today, is an issue that EU leaders were discussing yesterday (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/eu-leaders-oil-gas-imports-russia-ukraine):

"Germany, which gets 55% of its gas imports from Russia, however, has warned that an immediate ban would cause unemployment and stop drivers filling their cars. To stop using Russian energy “from one day to the next would mean plunging our country and all of Europe into recession”, the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said on Wednesday.

He was supported by Belgium’s prime minister, Alexander De Croo, who said an oil embargo “would have a devastating effect on the European economy and I don’t think it’s necessary”.

So in the short term they're going to have to buy rubles, that's inevitable, and with that, the ruble will appreciate.

This method is used by Putin to retaliate against all the sanctions they get. Europe relies heavily on Russian gas and oil but other news says that this would violate existing contracts due to regular payments using Euros or USD. If Russia insists on accepting rubles only for countries that are not friendly to them then they will also lose the income that they also still need to pay for this war and all the costs in their countries, so in fact this condition gives european countries and Putin in confusing conditions.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-demand-rouble-gas-payments-would-be-breach-contract-eu-leaders-say-2022-03-24/

I'm not exactly a Putin fan but I partly understand. It is a retaliatory action against the retaliatory actions that the countries that buy from him have taken.

When there is a breach of contract by the other party, what you can do is to consider the contract as broken, which in practice in this case would mean that they don't have to buy gas from Russia. But if they want to continue to do so, they will have to pay you in rubles.

This has another implication, and that is that Saddam Hussein was killed because he wanted to be paid for his oil in euros instead of dollars. With Putin they will not be able to do much, at least not that easily, and he is not the only threat to the hegemony of the dollar at present, but this would be the subject of another thread.

Of course, do not underestimate the Russian leader. He acts quickly and accurately. He knows that the rejection of Russian gas for some European countries will have serious negative consequences. In this situation, there are two options. Or refuse to supply Russian gas, or pay for it in rubles. If countries decide to abandon Russian gas and terminate the contract for its supply, the price will rise on the stock exchange and this will only aggravate the situation

Another serious thing that might happen is the rising prices of basic necessities in European countries that refuse to buy oil from Russia in ruble, it's impossible to stop the vehicles supplying basic necessities from operating just because they want to go against the policies putin' on. European countries must be confused right now.

I do not want to escalate the situation, but now it is not very clear who is going to hell

And now Russia is thinking of accepting bitcoin for their oil and gas.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60870100

So to get away with the sanctions, Russia now is thinking of accepting bitcoin, not sure if this will be good for us as the US might mitigate this risk on bitcoin and for sure they are going to be scared.

This is what happens when you have a dictator in power, he just mess up everything and still won't care about the opinion of his people. Invading Ukraine was bad, a nation they share cultural heritage with and both nations have families in each others country. Negotiation would have solve this war. I hope Putin realizes he made a mistake and call for a permanent cease fire.

Of course! they discussed, but the problem of finding an alternative to Russian oil remains unresolved and I don't think they can solve it in the short term. Accepting payments in RUB was a surprise counterattack by the Russian side, Europe will have to start hoarding rubles or will trade goods with Russia for rubles. Only then will they be able to buy oil from Russia.

Not just in the short term, but in the medium term and long term as well. Oil is a non-renewable resource and in a few decades we'll run out of this commodity. Among the oil producing nations, only Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase oil production significantly (up to 2 million barrels per day). And that volume is not enough to replace the Russian production (11 to 12 million barrels per day). All that said, I don't think that the Europeans would start paying in Rubles. It will be a breach of contract terms from Russia to demand so.

This is what's most troubling about the U.S's dependency on oil. They will gladly look towards Iran or Venezuela for oil instead of increasing their own production. Iran is a terrorist state, and Venezuela is pro-Russia. I suppose they could beg OPEC to increase production, but it doesn't make much sense to ignore the reserves they already have control over. I speculate it's so that the Biden administration does not upset the green sector lobbyists by appearing to be pro-oil. But in a time of crisis, you'd think there'd be an exception.

It's true that when the people protested and wanted the war to be stopped, the Russian police disbanded it and if I'm not mistaken, several were arrested.
true or not I'm pretty sure it's an order from Putin but what's clear is that it's a pity that the government doesn't listen to its people,
The whole world is also hoping for that and we'll see what happens next

I have read that many companies from Europe are accusing Russia of breach of contract because the ruble is not on the list of currencies in which they pay. But under European pressure many unreasonable sanctions were imposed on Russia, there is nothing wrong with Russia's counterattack. If European companies do not accept payments in rubles, the oil crisis will be even more dire.

I do agree that it was a bit about Russia who was the one attacking, but if they attacked like Mongolia or Kazaks, do you really think that world would give the same response as they are right now? I do not think that they would even care about Ukraine as much if they weren't literally next to Poland, Hungary, Romania and so forth. Ukraine is literally the last front between Russia and Europe and if Ukraine is taken by the west and put into NATO and EU, then west would have a buffer zone in shape of Ukraine against Russia.

If Russia wins, then they have a buffer zone in shape of Ukraine against the west. That is the main reason why there was such a big noise about this.

For deliveries as per the existing contracts, I don't think that Russia can demand payment in RUR. Maybe for spot deliveries they can demand that. All this rhetoric is just to warn Europeans that if they go too far with the sanctions, then their gas and oil supply will be disrupted. In the end, who is actually suffering? Oil prices are close to historic highs and energy prices in Western Europe has soared to such levels to make lives of ordinary people miserable. And I don't think that Russia is much impacted. The last time I checked, Sokol crude has once again breached the $100 per barrel level.

Putin stands strong without taking into consideration his people. Right now he wants to throw away the Ukrainian government and establish his Moscow regime in Ukraine. After several bilateral talks there is no conclusion on the war due to varied demands. Amidst this Ukraine have applied to join the European Union and how far this gonna happen.

Russia's oil wealth is the one that can help Putin overcome the ruble fall. In the recent announcement of paying ruble for oil and gas made small changes in the ruble. Maybe his plan is to extend the war until his things get settled in his country. Since then we can see different approach from him to overcome sanctions.

Russia is really helped a lot by having oil otherwise I think Russia will find it difficult to face sanctions from Europe and other countries,
if you see Putin with no consideration for his people at all it is like a dictator whose decisions are absolutely absolute and cannot be contested,
we will follow the progress of how far and how long this war will last and hope it will end soon

Ruble has made a remarkable recovery recently. When the war started, it had plummeted to 1 USD = 140 RUR. The last time I checked, the exchange rate was 1 USD = 95 RUR. It is still down from the levels before the war, but the downslide is not as worse as some of the experts predicted. Also, the Urals crude is still being sold, although at a discount of around $30 per barrel (at an effective rate of approx. $80 per barrel). Russian natural gas is being sold to Europe without any discount and demand is increasing for discounted deliveries to Asia.

Let's see what happens at the end of the month, Russian President Putin signed a decree allowing the start of payments in rubles on March 31. If they do not accept the ruble, it means that Europeans will have to enter a long winter without gas to keep warm. There is still no effective solution to the gas problem in Europe, everything is just discussing and finding a solution.

Ruble continues to recover which isn't really surprising since Putin most probably predicted this and planned various measures to counter these issues. This power hungry maniac didn't decide to invade Ukraine on a whim.

He probably planned to execute it once the pandemic effect decreased. Ruble definitely suffered a lot because of his actions, but I don't think it will lead to a Russian economic collapse.

It might not lead to a collapse but the economic sanctions that's going to be imposed and has been imposed by the west and the other neighboring countries would be the reason for it's collapse, like in World War 1 and 2, the initiators will always pay the highest of price and economic collapse will always happen.

G7 countries are protesting this decision but Russia still insists that it only accepts payments in rubles. I think the Russians are not only warning but they are responding strongly to Europe with what they do to the Russian economy right now. In this game, I don't think Russia will lose because China is increasingly looking for gas deals with Russia. They are willing to accept Russian oil and gas very willingly.

Well, it seems that state interventionism has worked for Putin, at least in the short term, and that the ruble is recovering:

"The ruble is rebounding from the precarious losses seen since Russia’s intrusion of Ukraine, signaling that capital controls might be easing strain on the currency as officials try to counter the effect of crippling worldwide sanctions...

The gains have left the ruble just around 10% lower against the greenback than it was before the invasion.

The central bank imposed a series of measures to contain the damage from Russia’s economic isolation, including capital controls to keep cash from leaving the country. Russia has also moved toward requiring that natural-gas sales be conducted in rubles, though the major industrialized countries have rejected the demand.

“Capital controls are designed to keep U.S. dollars in the country and also to restrict rubles from being converted into dollars,” he said. “If the ruble basically can’t be sold, that’s a policy that should support the ruble and be a way to stabilize the currency against intense selling pressure.”"

Source: Ruble recovers to strongest level in a month, cutting huge post-war losses. (https://www.bollyinside.com/news/ruble-recovers-to-strongest-level-in-a-month-cutting-huge-post-war-losses)

It will be interesting to follow this situation, as interventionism usually works in the short term, but not in the long term. Several factors will have to be taken into account: if a peace agreement is finally reached, for example, or if Russia stops supplying gas to European countries because they don't want to pay in rubles.

As a person who regularly watches the news in Russian, I can say that Russia is serious about selling gas exclusively in rubles. Free or in any other currency of gas Europe can not be seen. There is China, which will gladly accept both oil and gas. But all these events were not specially prepared by Russia, this is just a response to a huge number of sanctions. Those countries that diligently sat and worked out how to take revenge on Russia could be a little wiser, realizing that the boomerang would work against them too.
Politics should always be reasonable, and when it is done with hatred, it always peels off in a negative direction.

That exchange rate can last 100 years, just as Venezuelahad one official in place for a year after the differences were closer to 100x if people are not allowed to buy foreign currencies nor are businesses and they are on the other hand forced to convert everything back into rubles you can pretty much say this exchange rate is 1:10, not 1:90, the real value is not there.

As for the whole paying in ruble thing, it's just stupid.
Scenario A:
European company pays in Euros, Gazprom exchanges euros for rubles.
Scenario B:
European company buys rubles for euros, Gazprom gets rubles.

Spot the difference as it would be any!



Except:
Power of Siberia 2 is in planning and the plan has just been approved in late 2021, meaning construction will finish somewhere in 2025, there is no oil pipeline that would be able to supply oil to China in those quantities either, Ural oil is trading at a discount of 20$ to Brent, why would that be happening if there are buyers?
If Russia pushes Saudi Arabia out of China where would SA sell oil?

There is dreaming, and there is reality:
China's Sinopec pauses Russia projects, Beijing wary of sanctions -sources (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-sinopec-pauses-russia-projects-beijing-wary-sanctions-sources-2022-03-25)


I don't think that razing a country to the ground in a hunt for nazies can be called reasonable.
As for the boomerang effect, I've heard that for 10 years stating in breadlines about the death of capitalism, the damn boomerang never came back, all it did was hack the bear into pieces, seems that what is left of it still tries to blackmail the rest of the world, probably time to call some referendums in Siberia.

This one seems nice, it also respects the language and ethnic composition
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A8KKo.jpeg

I believe that he didn't "predicted" something to get better, he just knew that he had what the world wanted and that's what he relied on. The whole world knows it, and this is a long term solution. Ruble will recover when the sanctions are off, maybe even be better than what it used to be because it would show the world how powerful and needed they are.

However, it is definitely not a good long term deal. This war showed the world that it would be wiser to find alternatives to Russia's energy production, and every nation is doing their best, it will take years, maybe a decade before anyone can be independent in that sense, but the doom for the long term already started for Russia.

I appreciate the time and effort spent in creating this map. But it looks laughable. Separate republics for the Siberian tribes such as Nanay, Even, Koryak and Chukchi are not going to work because they have a population of only few thousands (and decreasing with every passing year). They constitute less than 1% of the population in the Krays and Oblasts where they reside. The Yakuts and Buryats are in a slightly better position, but still I don't think that they constitute a majority of the population in their territories. The same goes for the European part. Karelians are less than 10% of the population in Karelia, and Saamis are less than 0.1% of the population in Murmansk. The Komi are around one-fourth of the population in their republic, but you have included the Kray of Perm in your map.

Of course, to those who are surprised that Putin wants to sell gas in rubles, saying that this means breaking the contract, I say: "and to freeze the assets that the Central Bank of Russia has in the Western Central Banks is not breaking the contract?"


Yes, well, the same thing happens in Cuba. One thing is the official exchange rate and the other is that since everyone wants dollars or euros, they give you much more than the official exchange rate in the street for those currencies. So I suppose that the news are perhaps taking for granted the information given by the Central Bank of Russia without contrasting it? That is why I added to the title of the thread "not anymore" but with a question mark, because I wasn't so sure about it.

It's not my map and you're only focusing on the population amount.
By your logic San Marino, Andora, Luxemburg, and Liechtenstein should not exist, because they are tiny, right?
And what language do Swiss people have, let's cut the country in 3!


Yes, they are.
Besides, why does the percentage of population matter anymore when it comes to dividing Russia? When Russian annexed Konisgberg there was no Russian there, when they annexed Moldova? Kurile was full of Russian, right? When you deal with Russia you must use their own logic.
Besides, you're not asking yourself a more important question, are the Russian citizens happy with them earning 1/2 of what the people in Moscow are making while they have 70% of the resources that make up the Russian budget?


And suddenly, no more rubles for gas, seems that Euros are good enough.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-says-putin-agreed-to-keep-payments-for-gas-in-euros/a-61310461
Another propaganda move, as useless as the others.

There are several factors that underlie it but indeed this could be one of those factors because indeed Putin's ban on conversion to other currencies makes most of them almost certainly shift their assets to crypto now.
but on the other hand even though i still don't really like putin's attitude at this time but indeed he is quite persistent and dares to take risks after a few weeks ago he declared that he was ready to take any risks he was still firm about it

San Marino, Liechtenstein.etc have history dating back to hundreds of years as independent kingdoms. You can't use the same logic to compare small Siberian tribes such as the Ewenk and Koryak. And the natives of Andorra, Monaco.etc constitute vast majority of the population in their respective territories. And in case of the Siberian tribes, they don't even constitute a majority of the population anymore in their own native villages (as a result of the collectivization program by the USSR in 1950s). And finally, given their economic and social condition, I don't think that they will be able to survive for too long without the Russian state support.

If we talk about the northern peoples, or even more widely - about the lands beyond the Urals, then these are all enslaved, original peoples, with a fairly long and self-sufficient history. At the same time, there are rich reserves of natural resources on their land. As history shows, such peoples can live for quite a long time and with high quality, within the framework of their traditions and habits, without deep integration into the modern world. And in the presence of minerals or resources, they can develop well by attracting investors. What you call "state support" is a play on words. At first, this support destroyed up to 90% of the local population, then appropriated all the resources, and now the local population lives no better than they lived 100-200 years ago ... And given the degradation controlled by the state, their prospects are not very positive.

In order to understand what the Russian state (or rather, the Kremlin authorities) actually brings, just look at the "European" regions of Russia - degradation, poverty, dullness, lack of prospects, moral decay, alcoholism and drug addiction ... Look at Google reviews of Rostov , Ryazan, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Penza or Saratov ... And this is in a country that owns the greatest natural resources on earth! Which positions itself as a "world leader"

Do you know that now the soldiers of the "great Russian army" are stealing in Ukraine and taking them to Russia (yes, they are committing mass looting)? High-quality linen, carpets, televisions, household appliances, tools ... This is all that they do not have, and that is considered inaccessible to them, and the soldiers are residents of just those very European regions of Russia. "Average Russians" ...

In March 2022, a huge number of people left Russia.  These are IT specialists, Big Data specialists, businessmen, financiers, engineers, theater directors, designers and many others.  

Some experts talk about 1,000,000 emigrants.  

The richest of them leave Russia via Turkey and Thailand.  The poor leave through Georgia and Kazakhstan.  

The ruble ceased to be a convertible currency.  In Russia, you can sell foreign currency (US dollar, euro, pound sterling, Swiss franc, Japanese yen), but you cannot officially buy foreign currency.  

Therefore, all emigrants sell all their possessions and buy cryptocurrency (mostly bitcoin).  

But many businessmen, in principle, are not able to sell their business, since even now it is estimated at billions of rubles.  Such capital cannot be converted into cryptocurrency and withdrawn from the country.

This is without a doubt a problem that Europe is looking for, for its part RUSSIA is demanding that the payment for gas or even oil be in Rubles, that there is no other way to do it, and on the other hand there are countries that will benefit from this problematic, as well as Colombia, perhaps Venezuela, which by pure inspection we all know that the USA appealed to go to Venezuela to ask for a greater flow of negotiation so that they can supply more oil to cover all the demand that consumerism represents in the USA, from that the USA found a way to satisfy that need, the price of crude oil fell, especially when Colombia entered, the price of oil was around 140usd per barrel, when Colombia entered it fell to almost 110usd, so it is still expensive, when all this is normalize I think that oil will drop a lot in price, because I understand that Russia has accumulated large amounts of oil ready to be sold and this will cause a big drop in the oil market.

Why does the Russian government demand that "unfriendly states" buy gas and oil for rubles?  

Earlier, Russia signed a long-term gas supply contract with European countries at a fixed price ($300).  However, at present, the price of gas on the world market is $1,300 per 1 cubic meter.  That is, the Russian "Gazprom" loses $ 1,000 on the sale of 1 cubic meter of gas.  

Putin called the head of Gazprom Miller and demanded that he raise the price of the gas he sells.  However, Miller told Putin that this was impossible.  Unilateral change of a long-term contract is prohibited and punishable by a huge monetary fine.  Then Putin asked Miller how to terminate the long-term contract?  Miller explained to him that the contract could be terminated in the event of force majeure - for example, publications the issuance of a government decree.  Then Putin said - so everything is fine!  We will issue a government decree obliging Gazprom to sell gas only for rubles.  Then European companies will be forced to terminate long-term contracts, and in return we will conclude new ones on more favorable terms!  

This whole story is absolutely wild.  The Russian government is depriving the people of Russia of hope for the future.

It actually looks like Ruble has recovered since this happened, but it's an expensive illusion that the Russian government is trying to maintain for as long as possible. However the interest rate on the Ruble at 20% is very expensive for the Russian government, but it effectively means they'll just print money and it'll devalue over time if they keep it up. Energy exports will now account for almost the entire Russia economy as so many large companies have left, they have ruined supply chains in an area the produces a bunch of useful raw resources and the inflation rate for the average Russian is expected to be about 15% this year. If Europe is able to steadily wean itself off Russian oil and gas, which might take a few years, then it will have an even more hollow economy.

Unfortunately they did. I mean we would love to see what sanctions could have done, I would love it if they could have actually worked and Russians would have stopped Putin and this war would be over. However, Russia seeing how this is going, they will most definitely keep it going because they believe that they have been doing fine.

If the situation got worse and worse than I am sure even Putin would have been scared, but right now not only it gets better, but it is better than they even imagined it would be, basically back to regular life. This is why they do not see a point in stopping, they can attack all the way because there are no consequences.

Sanctions will work, but don't expect the destruction of the Russian economy to happen overnight. Remember the history of the USSR? Sanctions were introduced in the 1970s, after the USSR unleashed a war in Afghanistan. By the beginning of the 1990s, the USSR collapsed ... It will also happen with Russia, and most likely much faster - the economy of the USSR, although backward, was more or less self-sufficient, although also dependent on Western technologies. The Russian economy is resource-rich, technologically very backward, heavily dependent on Western technologies, money, and goods. I am sure the first noticeable degradation in large cities will be noticeable by the end of summer (August-September of this year), the next 2-3 years will be years of systemic degradation of the Russian economy, when the remaining working industries will fall apart.

Exactly. Russians are in a very tight financial situation as a result of the sanctions imposed by Western countries and the EU. It's going to take a hell of a lot of time and effort to be able to put the economy back to the way it was. China may help Russia, but that might not be enough to make the Ruble rise from the ground up. Still, it's probable the Russian government will rely on Bitcoin as a reserve currency in order to mitigate the negative effects of economic sanctions. It may not have much success trading Bitcoin for Ruble (and vice versa) through centralized exchanges, but at least there are alternatives which prove to be a short-term solution to the problem (mainly decentralized exchanges, atomic swaps, and in-person trading).

All in all, I think Russia's current situation will mark the end of Putin's regime for good. The longer it takes for the Ruble to recover, the faster people will emigrate from the country. The wealthiest people in Russia have already fled the country, so things will only get worse from now on. Only a change in Putin's mind (to stop the invasion) will help restore diplomatic relations between Russia and other countries worldwide. Who knows what the future holds for the country itself? Just my thoughts ;D

I will tell you one instructive story. about the USSR. For understanding, Russia is one of the wreckage of the USSR, which got most of the assets and gold and foreign exchange reserves of the USSR. The USSR collapsed in the early 1990s. So, the problem with the currency has always existed in the USSR - this market was closed and the citizens of the USSR did not have the opportunity to freely buy currency. But this is a completely different story. So about the main thing - in the 1970s, the USSR starts a criminal war in Afghanistan. The victims of this aggression were more than 1 million civilians killed, tortured, tortured by the soldiers of the USSR army. For this crime, sanctions were imposed against the USSR, including those aimed at the hydrocarbon market. The economy began to receive less foreign exchange profits. At the same time, it should be noted that the resource component in the export of the USSR was much less than that of Russia today. Russia receives more than 40% of its real foreign exchange earnings from the export of hydrocarbons. So, even with an economy less dependent on the sale of oil and gas, the economy began to collapse. And then the games with the ruble exchange rate began. Officially, 1 dollar cost ... 0.68 rubles !!! :) Despite the fact that the real parity was, from 10-11 rubles for 1 dollar, at the beginning, to an almost Venezuelan scenario, before the collapse of the USSR. But the USSR felt the impact of sanctions 12-18 months after their introduction, and Russia - at the end of the first month ... Then think for yourself about the trends

As long as their allies helping them to recover or avoid those sanctions for sure we cannot see them fall down for what they are facing right now. And looks like they are totally in better shape right now since we know that they are also hurting the economy around the world for their own resources which doesn't cross around the world. And besides Russia will not became big for just nothing so we can expect a fast recovery unto them especially that they are now dealing with China which is their tight ally in trades and other more.

In my opinion, the USSR collapsed not because of US sanctions, but because of the fall in oil prices.  

The fall in oil prices was the result of a secret agreement between the United States and the countries of the Arab world.  

The reason was not in Afghanistan.  The USSR was a real competitor to the USA.  The USSR had It was the ideology of building a just social society (communism).  The USSR was a powerful country with great industrial potential.  In addition, there was the Commonwealth for mutual economic assistance.  It included the countries of Eastern Europe and half of modern Germany.  

Thus, it was a real alternative to the Western world.  

Russia is not a competitor to the US.  It is a country without ideology, without economic power and without allies.  

China is not an ally of Russia.  China has its own economic and geopolitical interests.  

I don't know what's next.  Probably no good.  I don't see positive scenarios.

I believe it was mainly because economy was not strong enough due to cold war. At least that is what we are thought, if they didn't try to spend all that money to beat USA in world stage and only focused on their people, they would have been a bit better, still not a perfect ruling system but at least they would have been better for sure. Instead they tried to build stuff or spend money on stuff that they could use to showboat to the world and show how "strong" they are.

The happiness of your citizens to live in your nation is the biggest show of force a nation would have. Why do people want to live in Norway, is it because they are good in space programs? Have the best army? Build the biggest building? No, because they have the happiest people. USSR failed to realize that.

When there were a lot of oil and gas revenues in Russia, it was necessary at the expense of the state to take every Russian to Europe on an excursion.  

Every Russian should at least once in his life visit the French Louvre, Gaudi Park in Barcelona, ​​Venice with its canals, calm Norway.  

And after the tour, the Russians would say - "Russia is a European country! We can also equip our country, and it will be more comfortable and richer than all these countries that we have seen. We have oil, gas, and we can use these resources for trade with  European Union.We have a huge intellectual potential, and we can create new technologies and new computer programs, create new architectural monuments and works of art.We can develop industry and agriculture.Our future is with Europe!Yes,we are not in the European Union now,but  in a few decades we will be able to create a confederation with him, because the economic and cultural ties between us will be incredibly close. And if we don’t like something in Europe, then we can do better in our own country and become an example for Europeans to follow  ".

Nationality sentiment in Russians is very strong than other country in EU. They don't care about hunger if their countries national interest is in threat. They also have a strong negative sentiment towards non-Slavic people. And you are talking about peoples happiness then you have to understand happiness comes with a price. If Russia don't have strong military then it could be another Afghanistan or Iraq because of its natural resource.

Do you seriously think that Russia is a Slavic country??? Seriously ?! :) I will be forced to disappoint you greatly - no, Russia is not a Slavic country at all, although it really wants to be one, and therefore it constantly spreads this fairy tale on the wings of state propaganda!

The second, "eternal theme of propaganda" is "they want to capture us for the sake of our resources" :)
Tell me - why seize territories for the sake of resources, wage war, then spend energy on managing a herd of not the most educated people. To what? To start building infrastructure, to create normal living conditions for the natives? I will disappoint you - it is much cheaper and easier to print pieces of paper, give them to these Papuans, and she herself will bring you as many resources as you need !!!

Well, give me an example, over the past 50 years, when would the US or the EU take over some country for the sake of resources? :)

i also admit that, the sense of nationalism of the Russian population is very high and difficult to shake, especially since the majority are pro-Putin.  Russia is currently returning to their former self-reliant economy with China as their aid, this is the reason the sanctions imposed will not have a major impact on Putin's war decisions, plus Putin only accepts rubles and bitcoins as purchases of gas and oil. it will make geopolitics even more complicated.

I am not entirely sure if Russia is that much "in love" with Europe as you imagine they are. I know plenty of Russian people who worked with me back in the day because of my job, and none of them liked Europe, and I do not mean like love, or enjoy, or anything like that, they literally HATED Europe.

Maybe it is a devise issue, maybe there are some who like Europe and some that dislike Europe and I can understand that, but this is not "general Russian approach", it is "some Russians" at the very best case. I have met with 10+ Russians and not even a single one liked Europe. This is why I have to say probably not even the majority likes Europe enough to be like them and want to be a European nation.