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Author Topic: The ruble is going to hell (not anymore?)  (Read 994 times)
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February 28, 2022, 04:55:24 PM
Last edit: March 30, 2022, 05:37:55 AM by Poker Player
Merited by The Sceptical Chymist (4), Symmetrick (3), stompix (1), Upgrade00 (1)
 #1

It seems that Putin's gamble is not working out as he had hoped. He is moving militarily rather slower than he anticipated and now apart he has taken two economic measures:

"President Vladimir Putin banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts, potentially putting much of the country’s $478 billion in external debt at risk of default."

Source: Putin’s Ban on Foreign Debt Service Raises $478 Billion Question.

To stop the bleeding of the ruble, which is plummeting even in the face of a weak USD due to over-printing, he has also ordered that: "Russian businesses that trade abroad must sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles...

A picture is worth a thousand words:



This is starting to cause panic among its population, which has rushed en masse to withdraw cash from ATMs:

Russians rush to withdraw cash at ATMs as rouble plunges; central bank hikes rates to 20%

The most important thing in the conflict is the human drama with dead, wounded and displaced people, but I wanted to open thread to comment in this economy section what could be the medium term future of the Russian currency and economy.

I wonder if some of these measures affect Best_Change, which I understand is a business located in Russia, but I don't know if they will want to comment anything.







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February 28, 2022, 04:59:33 PM
 #2

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.

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February 28, 2022, 05:27:23 PM
 #3

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.

There are so many factors that can influence the price that we can't know but I would say it is influencing it a little bit.

According to a forum fellow member in another thread:

Bestchange which is an exchange aggravator that also have a signature campaign on Bitcointalk saw 20% increase recently.

Although he does not say where he gets his information from.

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February 28, 2022, 06:35:55 PM
 #4

The Bitcoin market has gone green today particularly in the second half
and is now $41,465, this is coinciding with a 40% drop in the Rouble today
and is still down 20%. This affects everyone in Russia so I would agree that
there are a lot of people moving into Bitcoin, the evidence from BESTCHANGE
is there with an increase of 20%.

R


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February 28, 2022, 06:44:10 PM
 #5

The sanctions imposed on the state of Russia has been quite steep and was always going to have significant effect on their economy and impact the ruble.
How Russia would react would be interesting to see, as their major plays from this point is their reserve assets and their gold stashes.

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.
Bitcoin provides a safe haven for citizens from unstable nations and this could be a reason for Russians to switch to bitcoin and consequently improve interest and demand.

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February 28, 2022, 07:50:50 PM
Last edit: February 28, 2022, 08:09:27 PM by Gozie51
 #6

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.

The effect will certainly come down on Russia. Rubie has lost value and inflation will rise soon because that is the next hard time the people will feel. The people have no choice than taking money out fiat to cryptocurrency and bitcoin is having that required effect. Is a bull now because of what is happening with the sanctions on Russia.

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February 28, 2022, 08:28:43 PM
 #7

The economic sanction had gone effective immediately. With many financial service abroad have been banning and departing from the Russian government, they're certainly going down. As for the price of bitcoin, it had gone up and possibly Russians were the ones that have contributed on its recent increase. And as the Russian government dealing with the war and the economic sanction, they're also playing their part of it and they have to shutdown their stock market and that really caused their economy one heavy plummet.

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March 01, 2022, 03:31:26 AM
 #8

It seems to be stabilizing at around 104 rub per USD. The reports over the weekend were something crazy like 150-175 rub per USD. Either way, never seen a currency lose this much value in such little time. This is some record.

Now here is what is interesting. If you go to Binance, the rate is 94 rub per USD. Why is that? Basically seems like an arbitrage opportunity. However I am guessing is due to fear that you won’t be able to transfer those RUB out due to sanctions. If it was easy then obviously the arbitrage wouldn’t be there with such a huge spread.

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March 01, 2022, 03:42:18 AM
 #9

LOL.. this is a complete meltdown... before the oil prices crashed in 2014, the exchange rate was like 1 USD = 30 RUR. Now it is 1 USD = 105 RUR. I have sympathy for anyone who holds his savings in RUR. Pension funds, savings accounts.etc become worthless if being held in the Ruble. One positive that may come out of this is, it may become more difficult for the oligarchs to move their money to London or Paris, and this may force them to spend at least some of that money inside Russia. Putin is not going to be bothered as long as crude stays above $100 per barrel.

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March 01, 2022, 04:32:23 AM
Merited by Zilon (2)
 #10

"President Vladimir Putin banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts, potentially putting much of the country’s $478 billion in external debt at risk of default."
Huh.  Well that would probably explain why so many countries are looking to stop this conflict before Russia puts itself into so much war debt that repaying all the other lenders becomes impossible.  I have no doubt that world leaders are sympathetic to Ukraine's plight (and they should be), but I'm pretty sure that first and foremost they're thinking about themselves and the bottom line as far as what this thing is going to cost their countries.

What a mess, what a mess.

LOL.. this is a complete meltdown... before the oil prices crashed in 2014, the exchange rate was like 1 USD = 30 RUR. Now it is 1 USD = 105 RUR. I have sympathy for anyone who holds his savings in RUR. Pension funds, savings accounts.etc become worthless if being held in the Ruble.
Man, I hope pension funds and retirement accounts are sticking to the stock and bond markets instead of dabbling in foreign currency (especially Russia's).  But I bet there's a lot of currency traders who are making a killing on this--and also a lot who are losing their shirts.

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March 01, 2022, 04:36:44 AM
Merited by paxmao (2)
 #11

...

This makes me wonder about user safety now re using Russian BTC mixers.  Could be a problem it seems to me.  My recent thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5387780.0
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March 01, 2022, 12:46:04 PM
 #12

The economic sanction had gone effective immediately. With many financial service abroad have been banning and departing from the Russian government, they're certainly going down. As for the price of bitcoin, it had gone up and possibly Russians were the ones that have contributed on its recent increase. And as the Russian government dealing with the war and the economic sanction, they're also playing their part of it and they have to shutdown their stock market and that really caused their economy one heavy plummet.
Nato state sanctions seem to have started to have an impact on the Russian economy, now many Russian citizens are starting to try to withdraw their money from banks, in recent days the ruble exchange rate has continued to decline and this is the impact of sanctions imposed by western countries to Russia, one the only solution for russian citizens is to exchange rubles today for dollars or bitcoins as an alternative to keep the value of their money from a more significant decline, I think what you say is probably true, the rise in bitcoin price today may be triggered by the purchasing power of the russian people against bitcoin in anticipation of their currency depreciating exchange rate.

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March 01, 2022, 01:34:12 PM
 #13

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.
It's a possibility but I don't think that it's the sole or the biggest factor for the pump of bitcoin, maybe play a large role but that's another story. Ruble will continue to go down as the economic sanctions continue, hopefully the war will eventually end because of the economic sanctions and the price continue to go higher.



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March 01, 2022, 01:49:50 PM
 #14

I think one positive thing from this war, thought not that I’m happy it’s playing out in this way, is the importance of “being your own bank”.  Below is more to what you mention here in terms of Russians taking money out of their ATMs in droves. As for Best Change, I’m curious if it’s a supporter of what the government is doing or not. Might have a hard time wearing that going forward if it were me.



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March 01, 2022, 02:45:45 PM
 #15

The sanctions imposed on the state of Russia has been quite steep and was always going to have significant effect on their economy and impact the ruble.
How Russia would react would be interesting to see, as their major plays from this point is their reserve assets and their gold stashes.

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.
Bitcoin provides a safe haven for citizens from unstable nations and this could be a reason for Russians to switch to bitcoin and consequently improve interest and demand.
I read the information that yesterday Biden asked the cryptocurrency exchanges to block any transactions that are connected with Russia. On the other hand, the Russian government wants to confiscate the population's deposits in its banks in order to support the falling economy and the war in Ukraine. Therefore, it will be increasingly difficult to convert non-cash rubles into bitcoin in Russia.
The Russians were afraid to storm their power and stop their mad Putin, now they have to storm ATMs to withdraw some of the cash.
The ruble is gradually turning into ordinary paper. Putin made a grand gesture to the Russians, promising to pay for every soldier killed in Ukraine to his family money in rubles, which corresponds to 50 dollars. But this amount continues to decrease due to ongoing inflation.

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March 01, 2022, 02:53:51 PM
 #16

It seems to be stabilizing at around 104 rub per USD. The reports over the weekend were something crazy like 150-175 rub per USD. Either way, never seen a currency lose this much value in such little time. This is some record.


I think the major reason that the currency is losing value is fear or panic. The currency of a country gets to be affected during such times. The panic is the uncertainty of the next step of action by EU. What makes the Russian economic situation getting worse now is all European countries are against Russia and threatening to shut down her economy. Imagine no flight is landing in euro , activities are crumbling. If the war continues, the rubie is going to fall more and inflation is going to tripple.
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March 01, 2022, 03:02:40 PM
 #17

Could this be one of the catalysts on why bitcoin is going up? Because it has increased a lot in the past few hours and probably many people are starting to convert their fiat and I try to preserve the value when using crypto currency.
I wonder if Russian billionaires are doing this as we speak?  I believe this is a more probable influence than the average Russian investing.  The rich already know their wealth is being hunted down right now and their best option is to move all to an uncensored, decentralized currency.

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VRExpress
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March 01, 2022, 03:08:05 PM
 #18

I'm not in support of this war as I care only for peace, this war will only make crypto get to a better place faster because now Ukraine and Russia people will understand the real purpose of crypto and BTC no wonder the market is recovering fast today.

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Findingnemo
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March 01, 2022, 03:35:08 PM
 #19

Propably end of Russian Central bank and wakeup call for every individuals who hold their assets in the form of Fiat. How can government says what to do with our earned money? They didn't gave it for free we all worked our ass to get some and multiply with our smart work for years then suddenly an individual order what we should hold?

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March 01, 2022, 05:03:18 PM
 #20



The ruble appears to be ranked 17th, which shows a decline.

Inflation and currency devaluation are both interesting and confusing to me. I thought venezuela, argentina and turkey were in dire straits given the state of their inflation which greatly overshadows russia's current numbers.

But it seems that to native turks, their inflation is merely business as usual and nothing to get excited about. And so I wonder what true effects a bit of inflation will have upon russia's overall economy, if any. Given that we have seen other nations achieve far worse inflation, without it appearing to be sufficient to drive native born citizens to revolt against the government or engage in other drastic measures. The only tangible effect of inflation appears to be greater poverty and declined standard of living. Everything else remains intact.
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