Bitcoin Forum

Here's the monthly chart.  It's pretty clear that it is not looking good rn but then again we've seen these spots with BTC before a lot of times when it all looks bad til it's not.  You guys think the bulls will come back at least for this month and get the price to go above at least 40k again or are we in bear territory?  I see some people in these parts saying we're not in a bear market yet.  But dunno..  would like to hear from them again.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0DkTJw.jpg

At $34,250 price still looking bear and the candle dropping and continuing bear. A spike is what may turn this up back but since last week it has been dropping consistently from $38,000. I can't say what is responsible for this drop but I believe it is looking to drop more in days to come until it gets to a level when strong hands will come up because of buying cheap.

The price still seems kinda high to me (like we should still be considering ourselves to be in a bull market). We've been around this area for quite a while and I don't think much has changed. I didn't expect up to reach 40k the last time we did and if we keep ranging between about 30k-40k (+/- a few k) then I think the price is pretty stable and strong.

We didn't have a blow off top this time either, we had a top that was reached twice and exceeded the second time. We have economic uncertainty to compete with this time too (2 years ago at the start of the pandemic, we crashed down to $3k)...

I think this is more a case of waiting for a strong break in either direction and either waiting for that to enter or just holding tight with what you have.

We had basically 6 weekly bearish candles in a row, this only happened twice in bitcoins history. Most likely this week will end bullish. However anything is possible.

We are approaching the yearly low, most likely we will get some bounce out of this level, perhaps close the week bull however the global sentiment is very bad right now and who knows what will actually take place.

High probability of not seeing any bulls this month. This is indeed bears' territory. Bitcoin continues dropping sharply right now towards 32,000$ price range like we haven't seen since the beginning of the last bull run which took bitcoin to its ATH (middle of 2021). This is a dangerous zone to enter which can take investors' confidence away for now. Panic selling is also possible at this point.

I suggest everyone to not rely on their crypto investments from now on for anything they are going to need soon.

I voted No.

Obviously, the price is going down hard in the last couple of weeks, although at the end of April we see some good movement and we thought that May will be a good month. Unfortunately, it's worst that we though. And with that said, this month might be the start of the bearish cycle, I mean the price is fluctuating, bouncing back to almost $50k. But this month is very different, we might see the price hovering around <$32k or even lower than that at the end of the month.

I voted again no idea similar to last month's sentiment poll. I want to agree with @adaseb where statistics implies that the next weekly candle will be a green candle, however, where the world presently is, we cannot be certain anymore. China might invade Taiwan, UST might depeg, Elon might dump or Saylor might be liquidated.

In May? Most probably not because even if the market manipulation stopped right now and price didn't drop more, it would still take a long time for the same weak hands who have been panic selling to regain confidence and stop panic selling* and for price to go above $40k.

For now we are going to continue seeing the struggle specially as the weak Western economy slowly falls apart.

* The problem with panic sell is that even if it is no longer happening, it could resume when price goes a little higher because some newbies are waiting for a little rise to panic sell so for example if price were to recover from $35k to $38k these newbies would start their panic sell and prevent the momentum from shaping which is why I think it takes longer than that for their effects to go away.

Probably we will stay this low even in the coming month as 2nd quarter mostly the dumping season and this has been listed for years.
But what we wanted to know is how hard this can fall and how hard we can wait.
Maybe for the next couple of quarter? But i do believe that 4th quarter will bring significant and will make many of us worth of waiting .

The United States' next narrative during the second quarter will be "We're in a recession!" causing markets to tumble and crash, and it will take everything with it. That announcement will be on June.

Plus from the current price movement, there's more than 50% probability Bitcoin will crash to the 200-weekly SMA line in my opinion.

Probably going back down a bit more or a steady movement. The sentiment is rather negative right now especially after it dropped down from that recovery from the initial bearish impression it gave that let the price reach almost below $30k. We're still gonna see a lot of struggling for the month, I reckon we would only really see a recovery by the last quarter of the year. We might see it go up as a recovery, but I don't think it's going to stay there that long, the market would still probably stay at the current range.

^  Yup sell the bounce.  And it's not just the 'newbies' and regular guys like us.  A lot f traders with stuck longs will be taking it as a chance to get off BTC too and hold most of the stuff in their accounts in fiat too.  It's just the nature of the beast and you gotta admit it's really the right move.  I mean if they're just here to trade and make some money...  Which they are.  Lol.

Anyway yeah, it's better now than later.  It was all going to happen eventually anyway.

And also the ECB are looking to increase interest rates in the Eurozone in June or
July followed by potentially 2 more this year to try and curb rising inflation, thats
gonna hit the markets which in turn will hit Bitcoin market.



We almost hit $31k today, we might get a bounce alright which I'm sure there are
a lot of people waiting for it to take advantage of before a further dip to follow. So
while a bounce is probable, going over $40k is a big ask in this current climate and
$40k is a big sell off target IMO.

If you take a look at last month's candle (monthly) it's very awful and worst.
That's why I believe we experienced this huge dump at the start of the month of May. But the good thing here is that there is very huge support around $28,000 - $30,000 which for me I believe that there are a lot of buy orders lining up in that level.

Exactly. Honestly, before this dive I was predicting to remain in the £30k-£35k range for the remainder of the year, and I think this recent dive has reinforced my prediction in that. Even if I was wrong in my reasoning's prior to this dive, I do believe we often underestimate the faith that is lost by those that are entering the market, simply to buy, and sell quickly aiming to sort of get rich quick. I think that's been a common occurrence of each rise, and drop Bitcoin has had.

The thing is, whenever something like this happens the people around me always point out the fact that Bitcoin has finally burst, then when we do eventually recover (which hasn't been a awful amount of time in the past) they go rather quiet, and just wait for their next opportunity.

The thing is though, the constant volatility we're seeing is actually quite good for speculative investors, since they can actually make a lot of money. It's probably one of the most unique investment opportunities, because if you truly believe in Bitcoin, then you probably are quite confident that it'll recover.

It cannot be denied. We are in deep bear shit right now. I don't think somebody would still insist that we are still currently in a bull market. The price has been falling terribly hard and there seems to be no support strong enough to somehow delay further more dips. I am now becoming more and more realistic when some people predict a fall to the $20,000 level. I'm afraid this is it. This is the bear season everybody is afraid of. The market would once again shake the weak hands.

Yes, I already said when we entered this year 2022 that I was pessimistic and that I thought the best of this cycle was over, as there were still people predicting that we were in a somewhat delayed cycle and that we were going to surpass $100k this year.

If things are the way they are, despite having positive news specific to Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5397832.0), I don't want to think how they can get if we have negative news.

The only thing I see that is negatively affecting Bitcoin is the general economic situation with inflation and rising rates, which has also affected the stock market and most assets. If we had news like the mining ban in China last year now we would be in deep shit.

Today bitcoin had a bad day for 2 reasons

1) Stock sell off especially the tech nasdaq index

2) UST Luna peg started to drop all the way from $1 to $0.60 and spooked investors because it’s backed by BTC reserves and those reserves started to move.

So the BTC would be sold to keep the peg at 1:1. No idea if they were sold yet. However someone is dumping large amounts of UST on all exchanges.

It's hard to say.
For a short term trader that does hundreds of trades every day, it is a very good move. In fact the high volatility is always best for them.
For others the "good move" would have bee selling long before the price came this low instead of taking a much bigger risk of selling inside the dip after the price went about 60% below ATH.
Also the "better move" would be to start buying the dip instead of selling in the dip!

^  While I agree that dip buying could be a good strategy to build a stack but just not with the market conditions like we're having now.  It's perfect during huge and somewhat long bull runs like we had from mid 2020 - mid 2021 but not right now when it's so possible there's another dip to the dip to the dippity dip.  Lolol.  :D  I mean who knows how long the bear market would really be this time around.  I do hope it's short tho.

Oh and it looks like some guys are making a thing out of the 7 weekly red candles will make the next candle surely green.  I don't think so...  It could but all it's really showing is how strong the down trend is.

That reversal would need strong support from the whole financial market I guess and that is indeed still in search since stocks aren't moving good yet.

I guess they confirmed it themselves that they sold most of their BTC reserves and it's just got worse from there I guess. No clear things yet to retain that peg.

The amount of no's in the results gives me a lot of hope. I know that it sounds weird, people are saying that it won't, and these people are the ones that should buy it to make it go up, so it sounds weird for me to say or even expect the same people who say no would end up buying and making it go up.

However, if you have been in the crypto for long enough, you know that this is exactly what happens, you see something and you say it won't happen and then exactly that thing happens. Now many people are saying it won't happen, but I honestly 100% believe that it will happen exactly like that. This is a big dilemma in crypto world, if everyone is saying it won't be 40k+, then it means it will be.

The market is indeed not moving yet on a bigger volume, and that’s why we remain on the price of $30k. I don’t see any big pump for this one but its possible to happen in June. Yes, selling your 79k+ BTC reserve can also affect the whole BTC economy and maybe this is the reason why the price of BTC is down. Eventually, once the market becomes more ok, the price will start to recover again just be patience.

I'm also thinking that people aren't in panic despite the declining trend. In fact, if we just picture what happened in the last bear market compared to today, we really see the panic selling isn't visible this time, we can't hear such an issue online and that was good news. In this way, we can tell that people are much more positive about the future of Bitcoin and much more willing to hold rather than take it off their hands because of their emotions. However, we couldn't expect a big rally, the price of Bitcoin will still stay below $40 in the whole month of May.

Maybe, as we have seen these many times already, people are more hopeful that in the very near future, bitcoin will recover. As it always does. So the panic this time is not very alarming. Some may even silently buying their satoshis in preparation for the next bounce of bitcoin. But for this month, I am only aiming for btc to at least reach the $35k level again as we are already past the half period of this month.

For sure recovery will come but I think we can see the whole picture of it on next halving and for now we will see those price and dump thing on the market as people doesn't have anything to wait since seems to be basing on events to see a pump.  For now many want to see that $35k recoveru because this is pleasant thing to happen on end of May.

Won't speculate it in June, I think we may see Bitcoin hovering in the 25k to 30k zone, we may see more accumulation during this time I guess. I don't want to FOMO in but if we see huge spike of volumes coming from exchanges and we see some reversal in the charts then wait for a retest, that's the best time to hop in.

I still believe the current price does not include the lowest price. when viewed using technical analysis, bitcoin support is at a price of 20000-25000, that means there is still a possibility for bitcoin to go down even lower. so prepare yourselves because this month bitcoin situation is very bad. and on the other hand the luna issue is creating a negative sentiment for the crypto market, I'm afraid this will also impact bitcoin and make it worse.

Those who are said we are yet not in the bear market are the ones who had zoomed out too far. The analysis of other traders also said we have been jn the bear market since May 2021, so its been a year already which we should have bottomed already by this time around.

It really will depend on how you analyse the market. As for me, price has terribly gone down. We are in bear and the world gone crazy too.