Bitcoin Forum

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Aside from DCA-ing and long term holding, other people should learn how to safeguard their Bitcoin, this can be:

1. Have very high privacy concern to protect against $5 wrench attack.
2. Bought hardware wallet from official stores.
3. Don't leave most of your Bitcoin on centralized exchanges.
4. Don't click any link, http (not secure) or any suspicious files.
5. Never staking or lend to centralized party in order to get tiny interest, even more invest in ponzi scheme.

Rather, this topic is more appropriate for beginners who, when losing, begin to call bitcoin a bubble or fraud, not having received their profit in the bear market. 
But yes, history repeats itself, and not just with Bitcoin. Everything in this world is cyclical, from fashion to wars. All this has happened before. 
The most important thing in this cycle is to remember how all seemingly new but, according to historical data, old events end. 
With bitcoin, this is always a victory, and with big pluses.

Fear and Greed has always been a problem for every trader. especially beginners. Even though we know the bitcoin cycle is up and down, there is a bear market and a bull market. but Fear and greed remains difficult to control for some traders who do not have much experience.
for those who have been through and running on bitcoin since 2014 until now then maybe they can stay calm facing the current market situation. but I personally as a beginner still not used to it. my friend advised me that "buy when red and sell when green". or can be interpreted "buy when the correction and sell when the price rises". but the reality is sometimes the result is the opposite. due to the psychology of beginners who are different from those of experienced ones.
but indeed it is also part of the cycle. BTC has market cycles, traders also have experience cycles.

The common mistake is when someone checked its bitcoin price in fiat value and see it decreased which could create panic and selling. That is why I like to use a kind of wallet that will not estimate the value for me.l in fiat so I can just hold it.

Better to just hold. Best time to buy, it has been bears since many months ago. Bears will become later the bulls and more people will buy. All is going to result to another bull market. Certainly.

I like people that have lost but not sell, they are not actually losses if they do not sell. They can wait and see the bull market again. All-time-high is just certain.

I believe that Bitcoin is a cycle where we will repeat history back in 2025 (that's just my guess) we have to be sure about Bitcoin in the future and learn more we see in all aspects, therefore believe me when bears come we don't don't be nervous for fear of the deepest decline but I believe as you said dumps are always followed by a pump, now that's a principle by which we can judge that we shouldn't panic when a bear market is still in the market we should get more bitcoins to something long term.

What am I doing:
Doing DCA because to me it's good enough strategy to keep hoarding Bitcoins.
Buying Dips, when I am sure I have to spend a lot of money at the lowest price, this is where I have analyzed with buying Dips.

Taking care of my worries:
Not going to panic and try something positive.
Don't get greedy and I'll definitely do the analysis.
Don't eat FUD, or anything else that makes me change, because I want to be consistent in my initial concept with Bitcoin.

Investing from the beginning is better, but now it's not too late but we can do it in the next 3-5 years.

https://i.gyazo.com/2a7c8166601d2778b8b5daeab015477a.png

In situations like this, words of encouragement are appreciated. It is really hard to hold when you invested the money you need, but nobody said that it is easy either when you didn't.

Class of 2017 here, and each time accumulation phase lengthens more than expected, with lower and lower prices, one can't help but think that it may be the last time it recovers. At least, we have experienced much worse situations (2018 and early 2020) so we know how it feels.

Thank you for the reminder of the market and advise giving to bitcoiners. It is a good idea to hodle bitcoin in the bear market and also buying bitcoin in the bear market is very good but how many people can do that without fear. As it is now many people are even afraid of the bear market because it is overdue. When the bearish became unbearable people would start to withdraw their funds to USD to and watch the price from there. And when the price gradually goes up they would buy BTC again.

Yes already considered this after having couple of experiences since 2017 and above. Bitcoin is always repeating its pattern on the larger scale of graph. On minute level it’s upto our trading strategy how we invest, grow, hodl and trade it. That’s just small picture of it. Those who are long term hodlers will exactly know how bitcoin works on cyclic patterns and how much returns it could give us back. There are stories of peeps who had bought bitcoin before 2015 also and yet they have not sold a penny. Ask them the effect of going from Point A price to Point B price without even getting defocused by various ups and downs in between. Because it was simply incriminating and what they saw is their pennies turned into millions.  :P

This what I have always tell people who regret not investing in bitcoin some years back,  they think they missed opportunity of buying Bitcoin very affordable, they feel they can't get those opportunities of that time. The price of bitcoin is just as the same opportunity with years back but people will not understand that, that the next bull that will be coming can reach to appoint where no one will expect. When that time comes some people will still cry out for missing this moment.

OP you're right, because the bear market will not remain forever but it will change someday to allow people to feel bull market so that they will know that is not good to be picking whenever the price of Bitcoin is low in the market, than to use the period to buy and hold for future purpose. I guess, this your advise will really help many people to endure in this bear market so that they will smile when the price finally hit bull market soon.

There have been times of rise and fall of bitcoin price but to those that are experienced enough they will understand that the volatile bitcoin price only works with it demand and supply to make the economy profitable for those coming in and those selling off,  with much understanding, an average bitcoin investors should know that holding is very important during massive fall but in it all, there's always a time to regain back every losses during all time high provided that it was bought when dip and holdl till ATH.

This kind of thing is needed in a bear market situation like this. Because not everyone can endure seeing bitcoins in their wallets when the price is far from when they entered. When FUD is heard everywhere, it must be fought with what the OP said. It can help reduce the burden that has been eroded by their slightly declining mentality.
Actually fear can be fought like this, coupled with the statistics from the past that this has indeed happened.

Always reminding those who are not strong enough to face the bearish reality that the reason is not a good one, in fact we believe this opportunity to continue to hoard more Bitcoin and we should be able to see a better long term.

My friends around me always remind each other that this decline is not forever, we will face a positive trend again after the bear market is gone. Seeing the bitcoin cycle is a thing that has happened but we must be able to survive as much as we can.

The word HODL is encouraging, buying more is to see much better in the future.

Yes!

Definitely, that we're just experiencing this because of the cycle and it's not going to be that low forever. People who have been worried about this dump should look at the charts. Like they should start on 2017,2018 and onwards.

And they'll see how significant this happening right now with the market, it's all about the accumulation period and people shouldn't neglect that opportunity that's in front of them.

Those who will make a lot are made on this situation.

Every crash, its something that "nobody could have predicted."   "This time its different".  "Nobody saw THAT coming." 

Bitcoin will be back, of course.  I mean.... it's still $19,000 ffs.  That's incredible.   New "ATH's" ahead, especially if you're measuring in inflationary fiat.

The fed hasn't raised rates since 2008 - it has been 14 years since we've been in this mess of "cheap money".
This "cheap money" pumped Bitcoin to all time high during the coronavirus since investors were looking for risky assets.

Now people don't even want to hold stocks, they'd rather go for bonds, enjoy the yields instead of watching their investment crashing to pieces.

Bitcoin cannot go up if the rates keep on going up - the dollar is the best bet here.

To be honest, friends, not everyone is worried about the falling price of bitcoin, there are still many of our communities here who are even happy with the bear market we are facing now and they even accept this positive event because the bear market in currently we are taught to save for this age instead of worrying about its low-value today.

However, I also believe and agree with what you said that as long as we do not sell any of the coins we hold here in cryptocurrency, as long as we do not sell them, we will not lose or make a loss, because the chances are still high that the fallen coins we hold in the future will rise or return more than the original price.

the big storm will surely pass.
maybe most of the people on this forum already know about the bitcoin cycle in the market but there are also most of the people here who still think too negatively that when the market is under bearish attack like this it is very difficult to go higher again. people think like that because they think that the current price of bitcoin is too high and it is impossible if it can go higher.
but they don't realize that bitcoin's track record from the beginning of bitcoin's release until now has always set new price records that are always higher. but some people can't think like this when only aiming for quick profits and leaving bitcoin just for other coins that can get faster profits.
even though in bearish times like this it is a really very good opportunity to buy and collect more bitcoins on hold until bitcoins reach new ATH in the future

The image explain very well that holding for all the years definitely pays off but it's not at all easy and you have to go through lot of dips and FUD situations.But believing in btc that it will regain its position in the market is best for beginners and those who think it's dead whenever the prices fluctuates a little bit.

We will see price rising with huge pumps also soon at one time in future we must be thinking that we should have invested at $20k also and those were lucky people as it's our own perspective.

Inso much believe that everything that has a good side must be demanding enough with lots of story to tell, holding may not be easy because it comes in with some demands ad well but if overcomed, it's really worth going for on bitcoin.


Yes, it has been saif on several occasions that this has been a setback for newbies to find it more encouraging to go for bitcoin investment all because thier mindset if filled with fear of missing out but to an extent, some newbies have got the understanding of how bitcoin has been althrough the years on this paradigm shift of price volatility and many can confidently invest with bitcoin without FUD


This is expected to happen sooner or sometimes around 2023 before or after 2024 halving whereby a new all time high is achieved.

We can see the cycle of bitcoin's journey from several years of its journey until now, it's not so strange the picture you show to people who have known bitcoin for a long time and of course for beginners this is more suitable and must be integrated.
Even in real life the cycle is something that cannot be ignored or separated, it is directly related to the process of its journey.

"That's why bitcoin is more rational compared to others".

This is called a cycle

and this is part of the bitcoin journey cycle process, which is increasing logical and can be understood easily, without neglecting the close relationship with speculative.
Basically this is in line with natural processes in human life that are in accordance with the behavior that will be caused.
Without these two things, bitcoin would not be as rational as we see it today.

That's how bitcoin works in generating the next ATH achievement, bitcoin's growth is far more advanced when compared to any investment model, even though the presence of technology and science is the driving force for bitcoin to grow.
Uniquely, bitcoin does not need testing, does not need to be used by many people and does not have to involve big people in its ownership, in order to push bitcoin to be more valuable and advanced.

Bitcoin runs itself according to progress, needs and can adapt to the complexity of people who want to get out of the chaos zone of financial freedom.
Speculative is another part that can be found in all forms of investment.

This is actually very different when viewed by beginners or the more extreme dislike of bitcoin, because their understanding still considers bitcoin speculative and the same as gambling.
But don't worry, people who are experienced and very familiar with bitcoin must already know this problem very well.

The last sentence is the best way to remove the fear, worry and panic from every cycle generated by bitcoin, in quotes "beginner"

This is simple math that most Bitcoin users don't understand and become panic. Once they become panicked they decide to sell and come out from tension. But the reality is they regret it again once Bitcoin starts to recover. Then they will raise the question "is that the right time to buy?". I have seen a lot of similar question once Bitcoin start recovering and move forward with a bull run. But sadly no one thinks to accumulate at cheap price. Anything could happen in cryptocurrency. Who knows we might not see this price range once again?

The fact that we can buy at a low price at the moment is a great source of relief to most investors who have been waiting for Bitcoin prices to drop below $20,000 to starch more. At the moment the most comfortable people are Bitcoin holders as they are not worried about the price and are rather focused on their long-term Bitcoin goal. Quite a good number of bitcoinaires are busily starching more Bitcoin and the weak hand is busy selling that is the way it is, even with every cycle some are selling but the smart one starch more at every opportunity.

Bitcoin is definitely the most cyclical investment I've ever seen.  The 4-year cycle seems to never disappoint.  I'm not sure why more people aren't saying this is obviously what controls the price of Bitcoin, but nevertheless, it remains true.  Buying regularly over the next 2 years will likely result in massive gains during the next bull run.  I would even say that the day Bitcoin stops following this cycle is the day the price is no longer determined by supply and demand but manipulation.

Yes history always repeats itself, there is no fear for bitcoin because history tells us that bitcoin will return to make a new historical peak inevitably, now the best strategy is DCA and Hold in the long run, those who get rid of their bitcoin now at cheap prices will regret it a lot in the near future, bitcoin comes out victorious Always in the end this is the lesson that history teaches us.

Thank you OP this is what investors don't know about,that the way the world move in circle,just like our lives itself moves in circle. Today we are happy,tomorrow we are sad, this is how Bitcoin market is. It is at the bear market now no matter how long it last, it will rotate back to the bull market since nothing is permanent and changes are always constant. This is the best time to invest instead of selling as soon all Bitcoiners will be smiling.
 .

One thing most Newbie forget is the fact that for every fall in the price of Bitcoin, it always rises back, which at times may not be immediate, but it always does, because i have observe that what majority of Newbie does this days is that when the price of Bitcoin falls, they panic, rush to sell and forgetting that hold is always the best option if you can't afford to but more, as bitcoin is the best option for long term investment which gives higher return of investment compared to banks

It's just that a lot of people have a different mindset when it comes to the market cycle. But the fact is always that it's a simple case of up and down. We only need to look back and zoom out in order to realize this. Still, fear is being felt by many when the bears come. So this reminder to hang on and HODL needs to be constantly hammered on them until such point that they would no longer be bothered by successive red candles.

Just a few days ago, somebody opened a thread relating to this bear market. Accordingly, a bear market is a market condition in which prices decline over a period of time. This is also a time when selling is encouraged because of the instability of the prices. This, I think, is basically wrong. Unfortunately, however, this is a kind of mindset running inside the heads of many.

Yes it will always happen every newbie comes and such a cycle will not go away which will always happen from time to time, because they have no previous experience and despite having knowledge of bitcoin and when bitcoin price goes down, panic will surely set in and sell in a state wrong and unprofitable.
but in the end it will be their valuable experience that will not repeat itself when the cycle occurs again, but still happens with new beginners and continues because I don't think the cycle will disappear until everything is even.

The two most difficult questions are: when to buy and when to sell? It is difficult to buy on a fall because you always want to wait for the best price, and it is difficult to sell when the market is rising because you want to sell at a higher price. You begin to understand this when several cycles have already passed and you begin to notice patterns, but for those who have only relatively recently begun their acquaintance with cryptocurrency, it is now difficult to see the whole picture, and there are many doubts.

I personally think there are no cyclical trend in Bitcoin.... it is just normal that any commodity or currency will have dumps and spikes, based on events that trigger that. The question is this... will there be enough positive events to push the Bitcoin price back to $60 000+..... or will negative events keep it down here for longer.  ::)

Some "Commodities" or "Currencies" never recover after a major crash in the markets ...or it takes several years for it to recover. Can people afford to wait 4 or 5 o 10 years for that to happen?

It's true that everyone can not hold Bitcoin. Only those who think long-term about Bitcoin are worth holding. Those who express concern about a bearish market are not true holders of Bitcoin. There are also doubts about how much they believe in Bitcoin. A real Bitcoin investor calls this bearish market as an opportunity.

LOL, the image representation is really funny. I liked it when 2015 and 2017 were pulling 2022 up  ;D
I guess that is the truth actually when it comes to holding bitcoin for a long term.
I have lived and survived the ATH of 2017 as well the bear trend after that and this is why I believe that yes bitcoin is cyclical and we will see a new ATH in a fee years.
Cheers to holding.

With the Bitcoin cycle in mind. We know that we don’t need to completely hold Bitcoin most of the time because there’s always a time for correction and pump in every cycle. It’s still good to take profit and just hold when the price is not moving anymore at rock bottom level. We can have a better profit opportunity if we can do Bitcoin holding in a smart way and don’t let whales use our holding as escape liquidity because we are holding.

Op is right, of course. Bear markets are a part of the process, and they are happening from time to time after significant price increase. The differences can be in how low the price falls (both in absolute terms and in terms of percentage from the ATH), and how long it takes to fully recover (which can take from a few months to several years). Of course, it's also important to keep in mind that if Bitcoin always recovered before, it doesn't mean it will necessarily recover in the future, but the chance of it not happening is fairly low, especially if nothing game-changing happens that could truly signify the end of popularity of Bitcoin (but so far, even unlikely global disasters aren't doing that).

That's nice, thank you.
I always try to keep that in mind but there will be instances you either forget it or the FUD will get to your skin and make you sell.
Lots of investors are not scaredy cats but there are times the fuel to fear the sudden dump is increasing as they get impatient for a pump to happen again.
I think they need some jabs at the market history of Bitcoin just so they could remember how far it went in just a decade.
This is a good jab to remind them of that.

Some people don't understand the word HODL when there's a correction or bear market . It's more reasonable for them to sell rather than to hold and when things go south, they always keep nagging like how whales doing this or bitcoin is dead or something when clearly it was their fault in the first place.

It's clear that when there's a correction that just means you have to buyback or just buy since the price is getting cheaper but they think it would be wise to just wait for the bottom before they have to start buying when they don't actually know when or what is the bottom. They really missed the whole picture of buying and selling in Bitcoin.

Thanks for this timely reminder and reassurance.
You see, especially newbies when they encounter a bear will begin to shout that BTC and cryptocurrency is a scam.
They fail to understand that the market is dynamic and not a one way traffic.

Without any doubt some cryptocurrencies are scam coins, while some of them are pump and dump coins, the complaints about those kind of projects are legitimate, and crypto users should not be hodling such coins, especially in a bear market, a lot of them won't survive the crash. It is Bitcoin that i am definitely sure isn't a scam and a hodlers don't have to worry about short term corrections, it is a project that is sustainable for a long period, but then the mistake quite a lot of people make is to think that every crypto is like Bitcoin, and is sustainable too.

Yea OP nothing different can happen in bitcoin now other than it breaking another all time high and also getting more adoption, I think right now FOMO and FUD hold less water on Bitcoin because of the history of bitcoin at every time topping the hole (dip) and coming out very strong.

This isn't to say the news won't come out and post about death of crypto-currency and bitcoin won't be made, but the experienced bitcoin enthusiast and those doing their research would know it's just another volatile program and in time the price would surge again. It won't be an effective ecosystem if some people don't get scared and sell off, it's just the process. You see same people going on to buy when the price is high and rising, it just keeps the bitcoin ecosystem running strong.

Absolutely 100% true.  It baffles me how many do not realize this as the simplest of time analysis of Bitcoin since its history shows this repeatedly, so much for DYOR or due diligence.

The price of bitcoin is the same as the same opportunity as years ago but people will not understand that, There are times when the price of bitcoin goes up and down but for those who are experienced enough say buy when it is red and sell when it is green, but for every novice trader Fear and greed are make them lose everything, but those experienced with the current market cycle may be able to stay calm in the face of the current market situation.

I do not understand what can make me sell now? If the price is now at the bottom and holds this level for a very long time, then this may be the bottom after which there will be an increase. Or if what's the point of selling now, if you bought twice as expensive? Of course, the price may fall even lower, but selling at a lower price than you buy, is an additional risk that can lead to even greater losses.

Most Bitcoin users are scared because they don't understand the charts with Bitcoin movements. When people start to panic, they choose to sell to release stress. However, they only regretted it once again when Bitcoin started to rebound. Then they will ask if the time is right to buy. After Bitcoin started rebounding and moving forward with a bull run, I saw a lot of questions like this one. But sadly, no one is considering taking shortcuts in the Bitcoin world.

Actually, I really really really don't think people hodl much in this space. As far as my personal experience tells me, the more people say hodl, the less they've actually done so. It's just the mentality they have to tell others to hodl so they can sell at the high.

Like you said, the signs are when they start blaming other things/people/companies for manipulation but they don't complain when the same people are manipulating to make prices go up.

If you have some memory issues, maybe you can forget it sometimes but for a normal person, there is no way to forget it. They are only making an excuse to cover up their mistakes. Having a concern is normal and acceptable because there are real world issues that we can see and we think they have an impact in the price of bitcoin but we shouldn't end up to a point that we will panic. A long term bear like this can be rare but btc is volatile so a fall in its price is something that can occur often.

If we miss this, there will always be a chance for us to buy btc next time. During these times, there are people who sells (not because they are scared) but they only bought lower than the current price that we see right now.

I feel like that would be even bigger stress because if you sell and it suddenly goes up then you did something you can't recover from. If you do not sell and hold, you could wait for it to go back up eventually, maybe it will go down first but eventually it will recover and that means the mistake could be fixed later on.

But when you sell, that's it, there is no reverse on that and if the price goes up then you missed out on a chance. That's why I believe that people who panic and sell are making a huge mistake, they should be holding no matter how low it gets, even if you bought at 68k, just buy some more at these low levels and believe that it will go back up.

I'm not worried at all, although I have a small worry, which is that it will take so long for bitcoin to reach another ATH that I'll run out of money to buy more. I have enough to keep me going for another year, but if we keep going into a recession still in 2024 I might feel how it is to be really poor because I'm not selling my bitcoins for 20k USD, that I'm sure of.
It's interesting that every time people go through a full bitcoin cycle they become stronger and more confident hodlers. There were times where -50% had an impact on me and made me feel down. Now It's just another day, like when you wake up and it's raining you say fuck it and find something to do inside.

As long as you do the right financial management and according to your needs, you will not be too poor. You really have to allocate your funds for other needs besides bitcoin. Maybe you have put 50% of the funds in bitcoin and the rest you use for other needs or investments other than bitcoin.

We all here believe that bitcoin will return to a bullish period and can reach new ATH even if it is a little longer, but new ATH will definitely happen. We currently only need to capture and collect bitcoins with the remaining funds that have been allocated.

and Do not apply greed to investment because it will not be good for the future.

Definitely I think you're missing at least one other type of "investor". There is also the speculator who thinks he's investing but really he is gambling. Unfortunately I believe this to be the biggest portion of everyone active in this space.

Then, there is the other type. Who are noisy and active on this forum and social media. Talk all about holding and Bitcoin adoption and what not, but actually they don't even use or buy Bitcoin. Just talk a lot on signature campaigns to get their bounty of altcoins. Want to see them? Just look at this thread lol

If they don't start learning bitcoin movement charts and understand them, they will never sell on ATH because they are always afraid to make decisions and won't know anything.
They will be confused to determine when to buy and sell because they only follow what the people out there say.
They will also doubt their ability to learn how to trade correctly because they are afraid to start.
We should avoid this and start to learn and keep learning because that is the way to get good skills in trading.

From this we should learn that don't follow other people's words by justifying them 100%. It can hurt us, I don't blame it when some people have an influencer they follow. But it doesn't have to be every word we follow, meaning we have to be even more selective in choosing which ones we should follow and which ones we shouldn't. From there, it is important for us to do our own analysis which will later become a comparison between what we analyze and what other people say. That way we will be able to choose which one is better.

Only old users will understand this, this cycle keeps repeating itself in 4 years and even this cycle is often forgotten by most people, it is very difficult to avoid this cycle, because we are too busy with assets and profits in trading ...

Yep 4 year cycles are still valid. We’re in the first year of a bear market, 2023 will also be bearish. Expect green shoots of recovery in 2024 as we move towards the halving. Things start to move up Q3 & Q4 of 2024 followed by epic up during 2025.

Nobody knows for sure if history will repeat itself from here on out and it is hard to predict what the future holds, but be advised that speculation is high at the moment and volatility is expected to remain relatively high for some time yet. Since this is a long-term investment, I like to think that a down year or two is not ever the end of the world. I take this view because I believe in the long-term outlook of bitcoin.

If we see the stats, a cycle is not the right descritpion, we can see it more like a wave...


Wat we can see is that bitcoin will not stay stuck, it will go up or go down, what we can be sure is it will move.

Is complex to predict when the next ATH will come and how high it will hit, but we can be sure it will happen in the next years.

Buy on the deep and just hold, that's the right way to roll.

The fact that the Bitcoin market is cyclical doesn't mean that the cyclic pattern will continue forever.
The cycles that lead to bigger ATHs would continue only if there is bigger BTC adoption around the world. I can't see such massive adoption right now. Even the mass Bitcoin adoption in El Salvador kinda failed. Some countries simply aren't ready for Bitcoin.
There's always a risk of the global "powers that be" banning all PoW blockchains and favoriting CBDCs and PoS altcoins.
Do you really think that the Bitcoin price would hit 100K USD, if such thing happens? I'm not spreading FUD here, I'm just trying to be realistic.
Another risk is banning all hardware non-custodial wallets and requiring all BTC users to keep their coins in centralized custodial wallets that comply with KYC policies. This wipes away the entire concept of Bitcoin and "be your own bank".
I still believe that another ATH price will be reached in 2024 or 2025, but I also have doubts. :(

There is always the danger in investing. Panic is normal especially to the new comers in the market. But I am done with high doubts in Bitcoin market cycle. I am feeling more confident than the previous years and the cycle will continue along with the world adoption. It's too early to judge on the El Salvador adoption and I will never call it a failure if their economists do understand Bitcoin technology and the market cycles.

Bitcoin and mining are banned in China afaik but its citizens continued to mine and invest. The trading volumes and the mining hash rates says it all

I hope this scenario remains the same so that we can really prepare ourselves even though so far we have to be shaken by the downtrend. The market is still normal for decline or bearish as of now, this should only be considered a good opportunity to accumulate assets to expect profits in another cycle in the future.

Bitcoin is a potential asset although now some doubts can be felt by some in the community. I still believe this will be good in the future, maybe it will be very good if the 4 year scenario can be repeated in the next few years.

Bitcoin will always move up and down because that is where its appeal is to make people try to profit from trading. What we can do is try to analyze every bitcoin price movement so that we can find a good time for us to enter the market. And if we haven't seen the time, maybe we can continue to wait while continuing to analyze because the time to enter the market can be in the afternoon, evening, or even at night. And it depends on how prepared we are to survive. But if you are not ready to see the losses that can arise from trading, maybe you just need to buy and hold for a while and don't have to look at market conditions shortly.

The peak that is achieved during the end of the year 2017 will give the clear picture on how the price movement have happened with bitcoin over the years. Lets take the next peak price that bitcoin reached. It happened during the end months of 2021. The time difference between the two is exactly 4 years. During this time period the market experience a downturn, and a stabilized bull movement pushing the price to mark its ATH.

I like that little hodler comic. It's probably relatable to others as well. I do imagine that the newbies that are coming to crypto need that kind of motivation, especially from us who have been with a couple of those cycles already. It's only a matter of time before it becomes a new cycle. I hope that everyone sees it as something to be okay about. It's best to get into it and continue riding the wave.

Price dump is not a bad thing if you can read charts and analyze what will come next. Pro traders and holder knows that fact and that's why they are pro. But newbie who are only here for months will panic and sell whenever they see that their expectation to make profit from BTC is not getting filled. But they never see the bigger picture here.
All we need to do is seize the opportunity to fill our bags in the bear run. And wait for BTC to run to the top again.

For sure you have seen the cycle already and knows our to prepare. And as others have been saying, this is a perfect opportunity to accumulate. We don't want to see bear market, but we need this to turn positive and the best thing to do is to buy.


2017 and 2021 bull run already proved that every 4years we see new all time high. So again maybe in 2025, it will proved that bitcoin will continue and repeat the cycle itself.

And that is why they say ride the wave. The word cycle is still being used here in cryptos like when they say that the market has a bear and bull cycle. If you can not predict in your own, you can follow the predictions that you see online. The last quarter is yet to begin and maybe there is still chance for the coins to hit their ath's.

It's not possible to determine if how high they can go but as long as many countries are still not involved in btc, there is still a chance the value can grow for more. For now, there are predictions which states btc can go 100k, 500k and even 1m dollars. It's not wrong to believe on them because btc can sometimes do the impossible things.

Indeed. We have experienced bearish and bullish many times. Both bearish and bullish always changed, they are only temporarily happening. Just look at the market trend cycle every 4 years, we should understand how long bearish and bullish probably last. If we learn the history of the market trend cycle every 4 years previously, we shouldn't be worried to hold our Bitcoin. The problem is, many people aren't patient and always dream to get instant profits from Bitcoin investment. This type of people are easily influenced by FUDs, they may do panicking selling.

It is different from my friends. We stop talking/discussing Bitcoin as long as the bearish market happening. They prefer to forget their Bitcoin temporarily because they feel sad whenever they remember the decline of their Bitcoin assets. I know my friends have a weak mentality as crypto investors. This shouldn't happen if they trust Bitcoin future.  :D

I fully agree with you, we should be buying low and sell high, not the other way round. If we hold our bitcoins through the whole year already there is no point in selling now. When it comes to the price patterns of crypto currencies, they are no different to stocks, commodities or other risky assets. That's why mean reversion strategies work so well with crypto currencies. As for bitcoins one good approach is to use DCA for buying new coins. When we use a fixed dollar amount to buy each month that we will take advantage of the cheaper prices by acquiring more coins. Looking at a longer time frame also helps to not fall in the trap of panics and sell when everybody else is selling.

Yeah that's probably their way of not looking at the market because if you look at it then of course the mental will be slightly affected, how can this decline be long enough in a bearish trend for those who buy higher of course they will feel bored when this bad trend will end but indeed by forgetting or not discussing it again a little bit they forgot about the current situation.  ;D

At all costs should avoid panic selling or selling now but it would be better for them to hold on with a strong mentality and lots of support to keep it going.

Investing is always risky and looking at bitcoin is even riskier as it is still a relatively new asset class to assert its certainty. But with what happened in the past and the outstanding benefits it brings, we have a right to hope for the future. Maybe the cycle won't repeat exactly and the economic effects will keep things from repeating, but remember that the value of something is created by people's beliefs. As long as people have a demand for bitcoin, bitcoin has value, demand increases while supply is limited, the price will surely skyrocket.

Many countries are not ready for bitcoin but let's look to the past when bitcoin was known only by small investors like us and over time in 2020-2021 we have companies, the country is gradually becoming more bitcoin-friendly. It can be seen that it is changing in a positive direction. So the future of bitcoin is still something brighter than in doubt.

If people just adhered to their own hodl strategy and did not fall victim to the temptations of emotional thinking and decision making, we would all be so much richer right now. But alas, the fact remains that people are only humans and will continue to make mistakes that they should know better than to make, is nothing surprising. Thanks for the motivational thread on why you should not sell, especially panic-sell. I imagine threads like these do stop many noobies from making mistakes during volatile events like dips (corrections).  Once we see Bitcoin adopted by the world and once every single Satoshi has been mined (or at least close to almost mined), we will hopefully see lower volatility and less whale market manipulation.

Actually the present Bitcoin price was once an all-time high but then we already have so many other all time high after then so we a familiar with this market condition, unless for the newbies who are just getting into Bitcoin and have taken Bitcoin as some form of an escape route from financial limitation there by taking Bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme and they expect a 10x price increase the moment they buy.

But for those who have been around for a while now, you will know that the present Bitcoin price condition is just a.phase that will soon pass away and a new price trend will be seen again.

This is how it has been and that will not change in the future, so we have to get used to it.

Even if the charts dont indicate, the price will cycle back between bull and bear levels it is just a matter of when and patience. Most traders lack the patience to hold their coins between these periods and thus lead to weak hands selling coins at the wrong time or buying at the top. Either way the experience that we have gained over the years is that massive gains are possible but need a properly time trade.

The current economic state has been having a prolonged effect on the bear market and this has been gnawing away at traders' patience. Therefore the slow decay in the price due to selling happening.

Still the price are ripe for buying at a discount if you know what I mean.

Everyone here was once a newbie in the cryptocurrency until we began to understand how things work and begin to play along. I remember I have sold bitcoin at great loss even when I don't have need for the money. It is just because my money was going down and I thought it will not rise again. After I sold at great loss, it was less that 14days, Bitcoin turned back and entered into profits, that was actually a great lesson for me. It showed me that even if bitcoin goes very down, it will still return back to bull. Many of the newbies will not understand till they learn by experience and after that they will get use to the process. Bitcoin is just cyclical.

It may seem as if there is irony, hypocrisy and various internal contradictions with other members that appears to be gambling rather than investing and telling others to do something different from what they are doing, yet the situation of people are different.

Each of us should be attempting to tailor our bitcoin investment approach to our own circumstances, and actual view of bitcoin's anticipated price performance as compared to where it is at is ONLY one of the factors, and may well not be a big factor in terms of inabilities to really assess it in the short-term anyhow, so in that regard, the other factors become much more important.. and maybe I should just list them out in order to be more specific to my references. 

Individual considerations include but are not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Accordingly, if I have been into bitcoin for nearly 9 years, and I spent my first 1-3 years building my bitcoin position, then I have way more flexibility than a newbie because my average cost per BTC may well be below $1k, so even if the BTC price drops from $69k to $19.5k, I could be telling the newbie to be buying the whole time, even though I might be buying and selling.. depending on other considerations that i have.  I am not dumping on them merely because I might be selling when I am telling them to buy.  If the newbie has no bitcoin or very little bitcoin, but s/he has a lot of value (an investment portfolio) in other assets, then it is quite likely the best thing for them to "need" to get into bitcoin, when I am either flexible or even considering that it is o.k. for me to reallocate which might even mean that I am selling at times that would be great investment prices for anyone who is either a no coiner or a low coiner.

I think that part of the reason that in the real world, I am almost always giving similar advice (to the extent that I would concede it to be advice) to no coiners/low coiners no matter the BTC price is because I am frequently talking to no coiners/low coiners, and the advice is to get started and figure out how to get some kind of a BTC allocation, and then once they spend years establishing their BTC accumulation levels, then it may well (or at least should) become more clear how to manage that allocation and figure out if more allocation is needed, are they in a maintenance stage or have they moved into a liquidation stage... and we may see ourselves moving back and forth between these kinds of stages depending on our circumstances an maybe depending on how solidly we are able to build our BTC holdings in order to feel that we have flexibility in regards to what to do.. even though right now, it does not seem like a great time to be selling bitcoin, even if any of us might be in 20x to 100x profits, but we would still have more flexibility to decide whether or not to sell any at these prices if we have been in for a while and we have built our bitcoin stash in order to help to bolster our flexibilities in terms of potentially having a variety of options in terms of choosing which assets to spend from to cover our monthly expenses - whether they are discretionary expenses or not.


As Ratimov already mentioned, merely because we can identify a price cycle that exists within bitcoin's history, there is no need to contemplate any need to be good at trying to figure out such cycle with such specificity in order to feel some kind of need to get good at trading upon it... except maybe just realizing that it may well not be a good idea to sell when the price goes down, and it maybe be good to buy more and/or to hold in the event that you might not feel that you have enough money to buy more. 

In any event learning trading skills would not be a pre-requisite to being good at investing in bitcoin, especially if any of us can hold through the cycles and maybe even buy more along the way, if  we have sufficiently long investment timelines, we may be in a much better position by not even attempting to trade and just buying, holding and just accumulating bitcoin through the years and figuring out sometime later down the road if we need to transition from buying and holding to selling and even living off of our longer term investment, which may involve some attempts to time the price, but if we have built enough bitcoin through the years, we might become a bit less price sensitive in terms of how we deal with our BTC holdings.


You might be right, but I would not expect that cycles are as set in stone as you are making them out to be.

Sometimes bitcoin markets ar unpredictable in such a way that when you needed to sell then the price may not be favourable enough to make any realization in profit while by then it is more advisable to buy than selling but the holder been already in need to sell can't afford buying more, just from the format some of the bitcoin holders or let me say whales adopts is to keep buying the dip, fine amd good they have the enough required asset to sum up together in other to afford buying bitcoin to hold, i do advise that making an investment on bitcoin should be a long term hold to have gain enough margin that cant resist any attempts to sell at any point in time, but eventually not everyone investing had the tenacity to hold for a very long time, instead they sell along the way and the price surges right after the action, the average holders got affected in this category and not the whales, what's now the essence of a hold that amount to nothing at the end.

Bitcoin is indeed cyclical no permanent direction at all. But what i have been able to gather from the meme is taking advantage of the dip and never to buy the highs during bull run. Just like the previous ATH where numerous predictions were made about bitcoin hitting $100k which it never did.

DCA-ing is just the best tool for the current trend. Take as much profit before the next bull run. I still believe so much in quantity. The more Bitcoin gathered during this bull run the closer it is to 1BTC and the better the profit during the bull

We are quite far from the ATH level. Indeed, these levels are not suitable for selling Bitcoin. I am currently in a trading position. I have very little Bitcoin. If I had Bitcoin, I wouldn't sell it unless I saw a new ATH. I would continue to hold the Bitcoins I had. Even if the bear season lasts for a long time, even if the cryptocurrency market as a whole does not see new ATHs, I am sure that Bitcoin will set new records. Even if I bought Bitcoin more expensive than it is today, I wouldn't worry at all because human history will repeat itself and assets with limited supply will continue to increase in value. I have no doubt about it.

Yes Bitcoin is cyclical, but the solid balance of money and fiat money in human history is cyclical as well.

I personally believe that it could take 10 years or longer to really be in a good place to feel that you have flexibility in your investment portfolio and to feel that you are in sufficient profits to be able to have some flexibilities in what to do - and even 10 years might not be enough - except for depending on how you are measuring your timeline and surely if you come into bitcoin, but you already have other investments, then you may well already be able to be more aggressive and even short-cut some of the timeline because you had come into the bitcoin investment with more capital.

Surely being in profits might be enough to cause some folks to feel as if they are in a position to be sufficiently profitable, but still merely being in profits might not be enough to really be prudent in terms of cashing out of something like bitcoin.

To me, it seems that you (348Judah) are describing a bigger dilemma that comes to investors who are both real early in their BTC investment, and also they might not had managed their cash well by having a sufficiently large enough emergency fund.  So of course, the earlier that any of us is in our building of an investment portfolio, we are likely going to contribute to our own desires to want to rush the process of becoming rich by investing more aggressively, and we end up finding ourselves to have had invested too much and bought too much BTC at prices that were too high, and when the BTC price drops we continue to be aggressive and at some point we run out of money so that we had invested way more money at higher prices and then if some kind of an emergency comes up, we do not enough cash to cover our emergency - even though we have a decent amount of value tied up in bitcoin but the value is tied up in such a way that our average price per BTC is quite a bit higher than the current BTC price, so if we were to sell, then we would be locking in a loss.. which surely we know is a practice that we should not follow.  We do not want to be buying high and forced to sell low because we had not sufficiently managed our money in such a way to be able to have enough money or cashflow or value in other places in which we can draw upon those other areas prior to touching any aspect of our BTC stash.

I do believe that as we get more experienced and as we continue to build up our investment portfolio (and even our cash reserves) and as we mature as an investor (and hopefully continue to learn along the way), we learn how to lessen the likelihood that we continue to get into financial pickles.  Accordingly, if we had mismanaged our cashflow and our emergency fund, hopefully we can figure out some kind of way that we do NOT make the situation worse by selling our bitcoin which ends up compounding our mistake, and if we can get through the situation without damaging ourselves too much then at that point we may well be able to put ourselves into a better (and more solid) position in the future so that we do not end up making similar mistakes.   It's not easy because sometimes even mature investors end up making mistakes that are similar to mistakes that they had made when they were earlier in their investment, and one thing that seems to happen too is that the amount at risk may well end up going up as your investment portfolio continues to grow, so if you are not careful, you might end up making mistakes that cost you way more money than your earlier mistakes - but hopefully you are putting less and less of your portfolio at risk in terms of overall percentages... even if your amounts should be growing as you continue to grow your portfolio (hopefully), too.

Thank you for taking the time to make such a comment. And yes when I read back what I said, I know I said it with some sort of malice to the guy I was responding to, which I find is something I should not be doing too much on this forum, moving toward negativity just because of conditions.

You are right that everyone does have different circumstances, and that's why the only real advice to give is to understand what your needs are, and to use Bitcoin in a way that suits your needs. And in giving true personal experiences, rather than picking up some "strategy" and commenting on it without a way to reflect from experience.

Basically, like almost anything else in life that involves financial risk :)

I definitely agree that for newbies we can't be telling them to buy all the time UNLESS we have also to give them perspective (and buying all the time is not same as dumping every spare money into BTC), in fact, if people really push me for advice, it's the same principles. Don't invest what you will miss. Think of it as many years of waiting and a test, to wait 5 years at least so you are not a newbie and can make up your mind better. Don't lose your day job, meaning, don't waste time trading and figuring out market.

It is better to learn from the experience of others than from your own at a loss. Moreover, a lot has already been written about the cyclicity of bitcoin, but a non-reasonable person will not listen to this. Beginners need to accept this as a rule, as a law in the world of cryptocurrencies - bitcoin is cyclical.  You don't try to fight gravity and take it for granted, do you? The same must be done with bitcoin. Realize, accept and use for your own good.

I know that it is not always easy to appreciate context, and in part I was reacting to your assertion that the older guys here will be dumping on the newbies, and even though there is some truth in that, I do not feel bad about it because I never proclaim to really know where the BTC price is going to go.. even when the BTC price had gone up a lot, it is not inevitable that it is going to correct back down.

Admittedly, there can be quite a few dilemmas in terms of both telling newbies (no coiners or low coiners) to get started ASAP, but at the same time, trying NOT to take responsibility for when they choose to buy or the technique that they choose to follow.  If they front load a lot of money into BTC in the $50ks and $60ks, then it could take many years (3 years or more) for them to get back to breaking even territory, and there is not even any kind of guarantee that they will get back to break even territory.

I know that there are a lot of scenarios in which they could invest all at once (at the top) and then not have any money to DCA and/or to buy on dips, yet at the same time, I frequently will tell people that I started to invest at the top of the 2013 BTC price cycle and my first BTC purchased at the end of November 2013, cost me right around $1,200 (it was marked up because I bought it peer to peer through Local bitcoins), and it took about 3.5 years for that particular purchase to break even and then to get above $1,200 (which was around April 2017).  But still between late 2013 and late 2015, I had brought my average cost per BTC down to about $500, but then early 2017, I had some hacking (loss of BTC issues), so I like to suggest that my incident had caused my average BTC cost to go up from below $500 to right around $750 per BTC..

So there are ways that we can continue to engage with BTC rather than just making one lump sum BTC purchase at the top - when we should be able to look at charts and see what the BTC price had been for the previous 6 months, year or even looking several years back in order to be responsible for our decisions whether to invest, how much and how to go about doing it.. in order to attempt to make our investment into something that resembles investing rather than gambling. 

A similar idea in regards to using leverage or getting a loan.  I frequently tell people that it can be good to use leverage to attempt to get ahead, but there are needs to have back up plans in terms of ways to service a loan, and if you put proceeds of a loan into bitcoin, then you better make sure that you have an income in which you can service the debt and to even be able to pay it off when it comes due rather than being dependent upon your BTC investment going up in value in order to be able to pay off the loan.  So there are smarter ways to do things and smarter ways to take risks without risking more than you can afford to lose.  Over the years, I have made a lot of money off of using debts to invest, and sometimes my investments did not go in the direction that I expected, but I had alternative means to pay off the debt if the investment moved in a price direction opposite my expectations (and hopes). 

Another thing might be to consider that if we perceive something to be risky, then there may be a lot stronger argument that suggests to cut down on the position size to a smaller amount rather than not investing.  So maybe instead of investing 25% of the investment portfolio into bitcoin, you might only invest 10% or maybe even decide that it is better to just invest 1%, so there are reasonable calculations that can be made in regards to position size that does not remove you from the investment, but instead still gives you some exposure without necessarily putting too much of your overall wealth at risk.

We must understand our existence and never compare it with other circumstances. Of course, all of them are different in terms of what they do, we often hear other people's advice to buy bitcoin under any circumstances but we must know how we are about adjusting spending money to Bitcoin how much we can do it in terms of whether it is slowly buying every time we have money, or regularly weekly or monthly or buying once and storing it regardless of our abilities and in previous experience, but in essence we already know about the risks involved. faced, including at the time of the bear market.

Maybe most people buy bitcoins from financial income every month, therefore there must be adjustments from other fees and also to bitcoin investments, basically we have to be able to develop a strategy that we understand while we can, whether it's buying all the time or in a downturn it's up to the important experience to make us a good pattern in minimizing other urgent situations.

During a longer wait (eg 5 years) we have to be able to get through it, but sometimes it's difficult what happens later, but that's as said before, finances must be maintained and other reserve funds must be available for emergencies so that our steps can be taken into account. The front is much better.

In order to maintain financial stability, of course, you should not leave the main job which is the source of money for yourself.

during the bull markets when bitcoin's putting in the big green candles and uber drivers telling you about the latest meme coins that are the point where there's a maximum financial risk and our brains are biased in the opposite direction because our recent memory bias is saying that risk equals greater returns all the

risks that we've taken in the past six
months have panned out well and
we expect that to continue in the future
the same is true of bear markets where
our recent memory bias suggests that any
risks that we take will not be financially rewarded further risk equals further ruin

and this creates a skewed cognitive bias
where our perception of risk actually
differs from the real risk during market
cycles but any time during a bull market
there will be people posted on Twitter
and in the news saying that bitcoin is
going to go to the moon and there's
going to be a 5x or a 10x from here and
the same people will be telling you in
bear markets that bitcoin is going to
retrace to previous levels whether that

be 10k or 3k or it's going to zero.

What happens is that seeing bitcoin as cyclical for me is like seeing it as a pattern that repeats itself and at a certain point there is a pattern, but for me there is a pattern that is not only repeated in Bitcoin but in the entire speculative market, which is Accumulation and Distribution, what sometimes repeats itself or not according to the circumstances is the bullish trend, or the bearish trend, or the re-accumulation, or re-distribution, that is where everything changes, if we see it from that point By sight, I think it is a cyclical pattern, but at this time it is very difficult to determine, due to the number of fundamentals that do not allow a pattern to be established, or something similar.

which is how the bitcoin cycle is, so don't let our investment lose because of the bear market, because when the bear market ends it will become a bull market, so in my opinion, if you invest in bitcoin, don't panic because? with a bitcoin cycle like that, after all, we will benefit as long as we don't panic and wait patiently.

It's important that whatever financial source we get, we must be able to share it with others so that we don't burden other matters, this needs to be percentaged and our life adjustments must be regulated properly so we can invest in higher Bitcoins but that's My assumption is to manage as well as possible what we do for the long term for the next 4-5 years.

I think we already understand how the emergency fund that is backed up is indeed important and has been prepared but we are more focused on future investments which I think will be more effective, let's say we choose Bitcoin and eliminate shitcoins it will not be the main thing except Bitcoin then I need to know more about this, how about we can do this without any complaints in the sense that we focus more on Bitcoin and don't choose other coins even though some say altcoin season then I don't need it.

DCA, Buy Dips, extra money added to the investment (Bitcoin), maybe I did, need a lot of Bitcoin while the price is cheap.

I am a proponent of buying bitcoin every time I have the opportunity, but I have never advised anyone to ever do the same. Because what is good for me may be bad for others. Moreover, in addition to this, I have a reserve of money that serves as a safety net for me in case of unforeseen circumstances. And someone else may not take my advice correctly and start buying bitcoin with all the money they have. But in life, surprises can happen and money may be needed to solve various problems, so they will have to sell their coins, sometimes at a lower price than they bought, and this will lead to a loss of money and, as a result, to their discontent. Therefore, I refrain from any advice, especially financial.

That's right, it's not worth leaving work now, I would say that now you need to try to earn as much as possible in order to invest now, when the market is in decline.

Or you can best tell them to invest what you can afford to lose. And it's good that you have spread your wealth, again the old saying that don't put all your eggs in one basket. We all do have to be prepared for the worst, specially if you are not getting younger anymore and if you have mouth to feed. But in any case, specially for those who have experience the cycle of bitcoin or crypto, there are risk involved by the end result will be very much worth after the full cycle have been met. And it's all about the timing, when to invest and when to get out to maximized that 4 year cycle that we have.

yes, that's the way it is,, in fact we will not know how bitcoin will be priced in the future, but most people have a positive view of bitcoin, and many believe bitcoin in the future will be more expensive. and many also speculate that bitcoin in the future will be high in price. yes,,, we'll see the fate of bitcoin prices for the future.

I agree that it’s going to be not that easy to determine what is going to happen and when it is going to happen, but I am pretty sure that it’s going to make a big change for sure, it’s not going to be as easy as just waiting for it to drop, buy, and then sell when it goes up.

I mean technically it is exactly that, but it is not easy to know how to find the bottom, so sometimes you buy as it hits the bottom and turns out there is even lower prices and lower and lower, so it’s going to be hard to find the bottom, and when it starts to go up is not known, sometimes it does it right away, and sometimes it's not going to happen for a long time, who knows? It’s not easy.

yes,,, and usually the one who is always full of fear when buying and during a bear market is a beginner, because I have experienced something like that before.
but I always learn from experience until I finally understand about the bitcoin cycle. so the point is if you invest in bitcoin never be afraid, as long as we invest using idle money.

You seem to be describing a situation about position size, landheer.  In essence, if we are wanting to invest into something but were are feeling fear about it, then we may well have to figure out what an appropriate position size might be in order to not feel so much fear.  Let's say that we have projected out our expenses, and we have figured that we have about $1,200 that we will be able to invest over the next 6 months into bitcoin.  Of course, we are not completely sure but we did our best to project out our cashflow, our expenses and to account for variabilties that might involve things that come up along the way, too.

So we could take and invest the whole $1,200 and invest it into bitcoin and then have no money left to invest for the next 6 months... and that is a choice. 

We could also divide it into three parts.  Invest $400 right away, set aside another $400 for buying on dips and then DCA with the remainder $400.  None of these choices are easy, but they are the kinds of choices that we have to make if we want to get some kinds of a stake into bitcoin rather than doing nothing.. and we should be able to figure out a strategy to attempt to moderate the level of fear that we have while realizing that no matter what we do, we are not going to completely be able to remove ourself from having some feelings of fear.

I agree and even aside from trying to hide the Fiat value of your wallet, I personally for the first time in my crypto history did not feel any form of panic in this bear market and I am sorry to say, was actually hoping to see some more downward movement because I wanted to get some cheaper Sats still ;D . Anyways, I know this is just a phase of the market, I missed it back after ATH of 2017 but I understand the market better now with no pressure at all.

By the way, the question regarding the sale on the new ATH is still open for me. I can’t decide if it makes sense to sell, can I determine the maximum price level that Bitcoin will reach in a new bull market, or will I sell too early and the price will rise very significantly and I will lose most of the profits? Maybe when the price reaches new heights there is no point in selling, but at the same time there is no point in buying at this time. That is, during this period, we should just follow the market and rejoice at how our coins are getting more expensive, but it will only make sense to buy again when the market returns to the bear market phase again.

This question is too difficult for me, because here you need to be a very good analyst who can determine when the moment has come when it is worth selling. Buying is easier at the moment because we are in a bear market now and the price has dropped a lot. I do not rule out that it may fall even lower, but for me it will not be a problem, I will buy more. But whether I will sell in a bull market, I don't know yet. Here I would like to find and read experienced members of the forum who have gone through the cycles more than once and have experience of whether it is necessary to sell bitcoin on bullish cycles, or just keep holding.

Very good thoughts! I realized that I need to leave part of the savings for buying on dips. Before that, I always bought immediately as soon as I received the money, but I faced a situation several times when I bought but soon there was a fall and it was a little upset because I understood that I could buy a little more bitcoin. Then the price recovered and I bought again when I got paid. Now I am dividing the money set aside for investment into two parts, I buy on half at once, and I keep another for buying on dips. I like this strategy better, maybe with my small amount of investment I don't get much benefit, but this seems to me a smarter investment. All comes with experience.

Depending how far along you are in your BTC accumulation, so long as you are not super early, you will likely feel better if you pick certain price points to sell small amounts of bitcoin on the way up.  I don't recommend selling BTC as a way to accumulate more BTC, but I do recommend it once you have reached a decently high level of BTC accumulation (within standards that you have already set for yourself)

On the other hand, let's say that you have around 5 years or less in bitcoin (I am using your forum registration date as an example Inwestour), and you feel that you have underinvested into bitcoin, so you are worried that you might have squandered some of your time to accumulate bitcoin, so in that sense you might look at your about 5 year history in bitcoin and see that on average you had invested about $50 per week into bitcoin, which only got you invested around $13k and with about 1.25 bitcoins (https://dcabtc.com?sd=2017-10-16&sda=5_years&f=weekly&d=5_years&ac=5000&c=true).

In looking back at your history and your cashflow and your expenses - amongst other things, you realize that you could have invested way more than you had invested, and maybe you could have invested $100 or more per week, which would have given you twice as many bitcoin than what you had ended up accumulating.

So, some of this will depend on your personal goals and also what you expect your cost of living to be in terms of how many bitcoin you feel that you need to accumulate in order to feel comfortable.  If you set your goal at reaching 5 bitcoin (or maybe you price the value in dollars in terms of whether you reached your goal), but based on bitcoin's ongoing volatility, it is quite difficult to really get a good grasp on how many bitcoin you might feel that you need to accumulate before you can start to relax... or to feel that you have reached or exceeded your goal in such a way that you can shave off some of your bitcoin as the price goes up and you can establish various price points and how much you might sell at each price point. 

You could establish that your goal is to reach 5 bitcoin and you are not going to necessarily want to sell any until you have reached or exceeded that quantity of accumulation. 

I do not believe in selling to accumulate more BTC, but I do believe in selling in order to cause some psychological security in case the price falls, and that would usually mean just shaving of some BTC as the price goes up, so maybe every time the BTC price doubles from a certain point, I might be willing to shave off up to 10%.. perhaps?
You can figure out a formula that works for you in terms of points in which you might feel comfortable to shave off a bit of your bitcoin in case the price goes down, but if it does not go down, you do not regret shaving off some of your BTC at that price point (which again means not shaving off very much). 

On the other hand, some guys who do not shave off any BTC during the price rises, regret that they had not shaved off any BTC during the price rises.. but it is difficult to figure out in advance, even if you feel that you figured out a shaving off BTC formula that you believe works for you.

Here's another post in January that I did (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59111925#msg59111925) on the shaving off of BTC topic in which I referenced
(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.msg3697405#msg3697405) thread.


Yep.. In the end, you may not get very much benefit from holding back some of your fiat, but it will make you feel better if the BTC price falls more and you have not run out of cash.

I always figure that the value of my BTC stash goes down way more than any benefit that I get from buying more BTC, but it still feels good to be able to buy some, even if overall your BTC portfolio is losing more value than the amount of your benefit (which with the passage of more time should likely ONLY be a fraction of the size of your BTC holdings)..

So your bitcoin holdings keep going up, and since you are valuing your wealth in the accumulation of bitcoin, your networth goes up way more when the BTC price goes up as compared to when it goes down - and with the passage of time you should be able to build your BTC stash (and overall investment portfolio) in such a way that you are not psychologically damaged from your networth going down in value based on BTC prices going down.

I had to spend a lot of time to come to the conclusion that only investing in bitcoin can be reliable, those in which I can be sure. Before that, when I started getting interested in crypto, I turned my attention to altcoins, and I ended up making too many big mistakes that left me without bitcoin. Some time after that, I got frustrated and forget about crypto. Then I started accumulated savings, and after the bear market came the bull market, I saw how bitcoin rose and realized what a mistake I made. Since the beginning of this year, I have decided that I will invest in bitcoin, so I do not have large investments, but I am determined to achieve them. For the time being, I do not plan to sell bitcoin when it rises, I plan that this will be my long-term investment with further accumulation. And probably at this stage there is no point in this seling, because due to the small amount of my investment, I will not even be able to get a significant improvement. But at the same time, there is a risk of selling too early and missing out on growth. We can assume that I figured out this issue, thanks for the help! :)

Now I am trying to work harder to buy more bitcoin while we are in a bear market. It is a pity that I did not have this understanding before, when the price was much lower. But I confess that at that time I had doubts whether bitcoin could rise again. Now I have no such doubts.

Bitcoin will always be bitcoin with price movements that are sometimes mentally draining. But that's where the real opportunity should really be used. But some people see this upside down especially those who are too frightened when the bitcoin price drops. This is the mentality that investors don't have, they will worry and keep asking where the bitcoin price will go. They never learned from the previous year, which if seen there is a similar cycle that eventually bitcoin will find ATH again.

A lot of people make that mistake - even very smart people.  There is a kind of temptation and a lure, and there are also misinformation talking points that play upon the inclinations that people have to invest into inferior products (as compared with bitcoin).  Bitcoiners could beat you with all the logic and reason in the world, and it is quite likely that you will still be lured in that shitcoin direction.  I am not really sure what is the solution, even though we have to recognize that people have to come to the logic of bitcoin at their own pace - and sometimes there could be some information that might get them to avoid or minimize such shitcoining, so I would not suggest that it is totally futile to try to present information to newbies to help them to have some shitcoin skepticisms.


Yes.. That's too bad.   Sometimes people will invest a bit of a side in bitcoin, but there can be a kind of building up of increased and increased gravitation of value into the things that are not really retaining value.  Sometimes people do not even get involved in shitcoins, but they gravitate towards more and more trading and then pretty soon they have traded away any stash in bitcoin that they had built.


Not making progress can cause giving up.  Sometimes we see members who sold their bitcoin too early (and sometimes they even make a profit), and then they had sold on the premise that they would buy back lower.. but then the BTC price does not go "low enough" below their sell point, and they never end up getting back into bitcoin because they psychologically prevent themselves from getting back in by getting too caught up on the idea that they have to buy lower than a certain price that they have placed in their head.


Ok.  Well maybe this time around you can get into a more solid plan that will help you into being more reasonable with your approach in terms of focusing on accumulating bitcoin or some kind of a strategy that helps to make you feel that you are making progress.  

Frequently, there is a need to be careful not to place unrealistic time frames on yourself because the reality of the matter is that many successful ways of building wealth take a decent amount of time to play out and to reach success.  So for example you are likely going to continue to have ups and downs in the value of your investment portfolio, even if you are building and investing in the right things, but after many years, (and even cycles), the principle is likely to start to compound upon itself, but if you never are able to build up your principle, then you are always spinning your wheels because you end up getting in and out of your investment and even screwing around in ways that are not sufficiently focused on ongoing accumulation that may well take 4-10 years or longer to really start to show compounding of value effects.


Yes.. That sounds good.  You might be able to see how your BTC is stacking up and to figure out if you might need to adjust your tentative plan, but it is good to attampt to try to figure out a tentative plan and you can even go through scenarios in which you might be able to see how your investment amount might change over time and then to be able to attempt to project out where you might be at in your investment value at various points to figure out if it might be beneficial to shave off small portions of BTC at certain price points.

Usually, you can project out a value increasing trajectory and you can also project out how you anticipate that it might change within a time frame, but you are not very likely to be able to match any kind of value increasing trajectory with a timeline that could happen quickly or it could take way more time than you expected for it to play out.. so you might have a tentative idea that your BTC might go up in value 10% per year.. and then project it out.. but if you have that in an Excel spreadsheet, you can have your 10% be a reference cell or once you have one scenario projected out, you could cut and paste and then change one or two variables in order to see how changing 10% to 5% or changing it to 20% ends up changing the outcomes so you may well end up looking at a variety of scenarios that show better cases scenarios and worse case scenarios in order to attempt to project in a way that you are seeing how you could create a plan that attempts to account for the various kinds of scenarios playing out and at the same time realizing that as a scenario plays out, you get more locked into that scenario so your future projections that you make at the later date end up being based on what actually happened rather than what you expected might happen.


I have more than 30 years of practicing investing and building up my investment portfolio, and in late 2013 when I got into bitcoin, even though I had already built up a decent investment portfolio, I had made a lot of mistakes in my investment portfolio in earlier years because one thing that tends to happen is that your investment portfolio might start to have values that are several times your annual income, so you get tempted to dip into it for investment into other things or maybe even for the purpose of consumption (buying something nice for yourself).

Let's say that you make $30k per year, and so you are aggressively investing with nearly 20% of your salary (would be $6k per year), and after 5 years, you have invested as much as your annual salary, and if your investment had not really gone up in value very much (including accounting for changes in the value of your own cost of living), maybe you would not be very tempted to dip into your investment if it largely has not appreciated very much in value.  

Yet, we can see from the earlier example that I had given you in regards to DCA investing into bitcoin, you can see that if you had invested around $30k into bitcoin over the past 5 years, then currently you would have accumulated around 2.83 BTC ($55k-ish at today's prices) (https://dcabtc.com?sd=2017-10-17&sda=5_years&f=weekly&d=5_years&ac=11500&c=true)... so perhaps if you end up having 2x value you would be more tempted to figure out if there might be some better places to use that value whether you would be wanting to invest into other things or wanting to use some or all of that value to consume with it.

People will frequently get tempted to dip into their investments before the investment has had sufficient opportunties to compound upon itself, especially when the amounts are available to them to be able to cash out some or all of it, and another thing might be that when you started to invest, you were not really too worried about the security of your investment, but as your investment increases in value, you have to take more serious measures to protect it or to make sure that it is NOT overly vulnerable.


Being aggressive in your accumulation can end up paying off... and I had used the example before of someone who had been investing $10 per week into bitcoin for the past 9 years, would still have a decent stash of BTC right now, but the one who was more aggressive and invested $100 per week would be 10x better off... So it can be good to be aggressive as long as you are not gambling or dipping into your living expenses.. because you have to make sure that you are not forced to sell any BTC at a time that is other than your own choosing.. so if an emergency comes up, hopefully you have ways to take care of the emergency without having to dip into your BTC.

In the case of shitcoins, there is a misconception that if a shitcoin is worth 5 cents, then it is easier for it to make x2 and reach the price of 10 cents (and sometimes it does happen), than for bitcoin to make x2 from the price of 20k and reach 40k. An illusion that serves as a trap for many beginners.

I held altcoins and wanted to sell for bitcoins when they reached the prices that I expected, but this did not happen, I became a holder of shitcoins and almost lost everything. Too expensive and stupid lesson.

I am not building false illusions and I understand that it will not be fast, but now I understand a lot, I understand that the market moves in cycles, that the cycles are long enough. Now the most important thing is that when I understand all this, that nothing globally has changed so that the cyclicity is preserved, otherwise it can be confusing.

I have a cash reserve that I just keep for emergencies, so I'm not going to sell my bitcoins. Now that the bear market is in, I try to stick to aggressive investing. I am diligent and disciplined enough, so I think that I will succeed this time. I saved well last time, but the problem was that I focused my attention on shitcoins and did not sell them in time. Now I only invest in bitcoin, so I hope that I will have a much better chance of success!

Yes. Bitcoin has been following patterns. So, maybe, the current downtrend too is a pattern, which will take its own time to recover.

Pretty vague idea BinarySumo.

Please try harder..

Explain a bit more what you mean by downtrend.. how we got here and were we might be going.. ..

To tell the truth, what you said so far sounds like the budding of a dumb and superficial set of thoughts... if you have any thoughts beyond what you already said.. so surprise me and flesh out your seemingly vague-ass idea, and show us where you are going with your ideas of a supposedly current "downtrend"?

Yes, data tells us that. It would be better to have patience and not act impulsive.  HODL guys!

The phrase "bitcoin is dead!" has been said and heard by critics and supporters since time immemorial. At this point to say that this will be the final bear market until bitcoin completely dies off is nothing short of a joke and a meme amongst the people in this forum, more so the ones who are actively supporting bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Bitcoin is once again showing signs of a bull run which could happen sooner or later. Posts like these are important especially for beginners who are easily swayed by FUD and FOMO.

That means the loop of time and the iterative sequence is bitcoin's journey through a true cycle, like a wheel spinning and centered on the same axis.
Bitcoin has shown a long process since its introduction, the growth of bitcoin has increased quite rapidly from time to time. The theory from the picture you show, is the basis for introducing bitcoin for beginners and should be a reference for the bitcoin cycle, so that beginners don't panic when bitcoin finds its correction again.

Almost not much different from the journey of one's life in this world, meaning that the process of turning the wheel will continue in our lives, even though distance and time may not match and have differences.
I mean, the process of a dump or pump is a cycle process that rotates, sooner or later it will return to the recovery stage and the next bitcoin growth will continue to rotate according to the increase.
Where from 2014 to 2018 is a long process that will make references as reinforcement of the facts.

Once again.
The price of bitcoin can not be predicted clearly, this is the other side that makes bitcoin easier to accept, because certainty is another form beyond human thought. The approach or adoption of bitcoin is much more scalable, once one begins to understand it, but that doesn't mean the low bitcoin price is an excuse for panic.

What's interesting about bitcoin is here, buying at a time of correction or at a low price is a promising investment preparation step. The moment of correction must be fully exploited, otherwise we will lose the opportunity to start.
Worry is something not to be afraid of, make friends with worry so that we can know the other side of the advantages of bitcoin.

Wait and buy more

The media has a role in playing the issue as desired, but it seems they fail to dispel bitcoin to grow and develop, although not all media try to voice negative or positive things towards Bitcoin.
Freming is made according to needs, commands and follow the developing trends, while the impact can not connection with the news they issue, which is why many media make narration that is not in accordance with the factors on the ground.

The phenomenon of bubble burst is an economic growth or market value, especially the price of assets followed by a rapid decline in value or contraction. Bubbles are generally caused by a surge in prices by high market behavior, so that a narrative appears tailored to the needs. But Bitcoin has found a way to continue to grow and achieve values ​​outside of predictions at that time.

This is the reason the cycle works in accordance with the process that is running, growth and recovery will repeatedly, to reach the explosion of prices such as when achieving ATH.
Similar titles, the same narrative and the effects that will be caused will experience contractions, more than 11 years we watch this.
Don't worry and don't need to panic.
Hold and buy more, then we will go to the moon

I as a person who invests in bitcoin, I hope that the bitcoin cycle is as you say. and hopefully in the future there will be a better bull run market. but I think for now bitcoin will be in the bear market for a very long time. and it will be difficult to step into a bull market. because the world economy is down.

Regret always comes too late, when opportunities come to us but we always ignore those opportunities, after we see other people enjoying the investment returns they have gotten then we regret it, why don't we want to invest, that's our human principle because we trust the media too much who said negative things about bitcoin, so we missed the opportunity that came our way, luckily I never believed in the media and billionaires who cornered bitcoin and I always had my own predictions I finally got what I wanted.

The whole concept depends on the demand and supply factor and at this time there are more people selling their coins on comparison with investment which is why we are seeing price downtrend not any pattern which btc follow so we need to realise this fact.In the future when there is more cash flow in the economy more people will invest in bitcoin and we will see price rising and soon we can enter bull run mode say by the end of Q4 of this year so hope for best.

Why do you have to "hope" mate? It is clearly there in the charts which you obviously have not seen before commenting. Every bear market is a part of a cycle and comes back to the bull market - this is inevitable.

The duration of a bear market is something that cannot be predicted, while sustaining through it is tough for a average trader. Still news media ends up making these bitcoin burst and chatbox trolls come up with the "the end of bitcoin" type quotes and are never to be heard of again.

Point remains same, while the entire world seems upside-down you have to keep your feet on the ground - meaning that you need your own research and analysis to keep your footing on bitcoin's price instead of  listening to netizens about their predictions and comments.

I doubt that you have explained the idea of downtrend any better than BinarySumo.

There was an implication from BinarySumo that we were in a downtrend and such downtrend was continuing because we were in the middle of it.

You seem to be agreeing with BinarySumo but saying something a bit different.

Yeah, of course we see that there was a downtrend from November until mid-June.. but then since mid-June we have largely been stuck in the low, and sure perhaps the bottom is not in, yet can we imply that we are in the middle of a continued downtrend?

I also have no problem with the idea that we are in a bear market that had largely been confirmed since around mid-May - so even though the idea of a bear market presumes that the odds for going down are greater than the odds for going up, we still should not be implying that the bottom for sure is not in because maybe we have ONLY slightly greater than 50/50 odds of going below the already hit bottom of $17,593 from mid-June.. which is already nearly 4.5 months ago.

Maybe I communicated my idea badly?  I am largely suggesting that we have been confirmed to have been in a bear market since mid May.. even though of course, the top of the price was in November 2021 and there could be arguments that the bear trend started in April 2021 after the first peak.. but I am suggesting that such bear market was really ONLY made clear in around mid-May 2022 when the BTC price dropped below the 100-week moving average (which was then around $35.2k), and failed to immediately bounce back above that price within a day or two.


Sure.. but who knew? until later?  Of course you can assert that you knew earlier than me, but it's a little difficult and perhaps even meaningless to proclaim any kind of superior knowledge or insight.. so sure, maybe I am framing the matter in terms of when it became clear to me that we were in a bear market.. which is mid -may.. even though assertions as to when the bear market started can be matters of interpretation too...but those are historical framings and sometimes those historical framings (and the different ways of making them) can be useful to figure out where we are at currently or where we might be going.


Sure... no problem with that as a possibility.. and at the same time, how we frame where we are going and where we have been can have quite a bit of variance, even if a chart may be interpreted in different ways in terms of highlighting which portions we might believe to be more or less important or even more or less relevant.. different interpretations can surely come from looking at charts - and also depending on which chart and perhaps which indicators you might determine to be important including questions that might lay outside of the chart in terms of factors that might not be shown on the chart that can also have quite a bit of variability in terms of how much weight to give some of these outside factors, such as adoption and network effects... for example, or macro and news events, too.. 


Could be.  Depending on where someone is at in their bitcoin journey, some people might not want to accumulate when the BTC price is potentially on the way up.. so if there might be flat price behavior or even lower price behavior or staying stuck in in some perceived lower price arena such as lower than the 200 week moving average (which is currently at around $23,723 (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/)) even if looking at sub 100-week moving average as relatively low prices (which is currently nearly at $38k (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/))

I tend to be pretty hesitant to proclaim with very much certainty where I believe the BTC price to be going in the short term, but I would imagine that we would likely need to get well above the 200-week moving average and maybe even stay above $32k-ish for a while (getting close to the 100-week moving average) before I will start to feel comfortable to assert that either the bottom is in or the bear market is over.. even though by the time we figure out that it is over, we would likely still be able to assert that the mid-June bottom of $17,593(so far) was the bottom, if that is what ends up happening.


You are not getting me too excited aboutthe price going up.. until at least we start to get close to $30k, and like I said I probably am not going to be satisfied to start getting cocky about UPpity potential until we get above $32k..and surely how fast we go there (assuming that we will go there some day), will likely also affect how confident that I might be about the bottom (of $17,593) being in or the bear market being over.

I am a delayed indicator.. and I don't play around with the price anyhow.  I have a system in which I buy on the way down and sell on the way up and it does not require me to predict much of anything except maybe on the margins and maybe in the longer term, such as 5-10 years or longer that the BTC is going to end up averaging going up from whatever price point that we happen to be.. and I am kind of hoping too that BTC is going to appreciate in value greater than the dollar is depreciating.... but of course, we do not have guarantees and we ONLY have probabilities that have been playing out pretty damned well so far, even though I don't bank on having any kind of guarantees, but instead having sufficiently enough skin in the game that I am going to do way better by the BTC price going up rather than down.. but no need to really worry about already being in sufficient profits, so I don't feel any urgency to reallocate out of BTC or to take meaningful profits.. instead I just skim from time to time as the BTC price goes up and also just spend if I need to (while perhaps holding back on as much spending of BTC during times like this.. if possible)


I hope you are correct, yet I am not ready to even be close to being that bold in any assertions that I make, as I already outlined my general mental framework on the bitcoin price dynamics topic.


I am not clear what you are saying here?

We might consider our dropping below the 100-week moving average in May 2022 as our $6k to $3k move.. so now we are stuck at $3k.. but yeah, of course, we are not going to necessarily know unless we were to drop more.. or maybe we end up having a recovery that is similar to April 2019 - in which we spent nearly 5 months bouncing around in the $3.5k to $4.2k price range, and then finally broke from $4.2k to $13,888 that was a three months price move, and thereafter returned back to the $4ks to $6ks at least a couple of times (once in late 2019 and again in March 2020 - which some folks consider to be a bit of an aberration).

The fact that bitcoin doesn't offer anything novel is really incredibly reassuring. There must always be equilibrium because everything is cyclical. Many people panic when the price drops, and selling is all they can think about. Every market trend makes an impact on individuals, so after you've made the decision to invest, you must keep your emotions out of it, especially if you're anxious. Instead, practice keeping your money secure. People continue to wonder if the price will increase at the current level, even though it actually will.

That's quite difficult to generalize the way you do this. I believe we have all been running into a crisis that wasn't anticipated and hence priced into our own risk calculations and appetite. For example, if you take the pandemic or the war, such events can create significant downturn momentum that is totally exogenous. The issue about it is that even those who did price in massive exogenous effects when setting up their portfolio, are also well advised to sell because it is unlikely they can stop or rely on others to stop downward momentum. These exogenous shocks are to a certain degree self-fulfilling prophecies because both dumb and smart investors do the right thing when they sell and rather buy back later.

Nonetheless, cyclicality does play a role, but it is hard to discern what portion of the overall effect (bearish/bullish momentum) reflects cyclicality and what portion derives from exogenous shocks.

If you believe that Bitcoin is NOT offering anything novel, then you likely do not understand or appreciate what bitcoin is.

Maybe you can start out by stating what you believe bitcoin is, and then describe why that the thing that bitcoin is offering does not happen to be novel.  Once you describe what you believe bitcoin is offering, then we can identify how you seem to be either misunderstanding it, under-appreciating it or just failing/refusing to describe it for what it is.


You mean anything that endures is cyclical? because some things live and die and therefore not everything would be cyclical from at least a superficial viewpoint.


Well, if someone (or people) do not understand what bitcoin is or they don't realize that bitcoin is likely to be enduring rather than a passing fad, then they might not panic so easily.  Also, there is a tendency for people to really dislike losing value, so the phenomena is that they have tendencies to feel losses much more strongly than they might feel gains.. It is a phenomena known as "loss aversion," and it seems likely that loss aversion would be more present in cases that people don't really understand either what they are investing in or they have not developed their own investment thesis regarding the asset (such as bitcoin in this case).


Well that makes sense, yet it likely is not easy to keep emotions out of it, unless a person develops a plan for how s/he is going to invest into the asset (in this case bitcoin). 

So if the decision to invest has been made, then there might be a decision regarding how to do it and over what kind of a time horizon, and if the person does not really think through how they are going to invest in a way that account for possible considerable price volatility, then such person might lump sum invest into BTC, but not really be ready if the price moves down instead of sideways or up, so their plan should include accounting for that the BTC price might go down from the point of their investment. 

Something similar could be true if a person decides to invest into BTC and considered that the BTC price is going to go down or sideways before it goes up, and then if the BTC price ends up going UP rather than down or sideways, then they end up acting out of emotions because they failed/refused to adequately account for the possibility that the BTC price could go up rather than down or sideways.


What does that mean?  Are you talking about bitcoin or dollars or something else?  If you are talking about dollars, then are you talking about keeping it secure by trying to decide where to store it and then perhaps being ready to employ the dollars to be able to buy bitcoin at points in BTC's price moves in which you believe are within the terms of your plan?  or are you referring to some other way of securing your "money"?


I agree with you that the odds are pretty high that bitcoin's price is going to rise from here, but it might take a while to play out or it could happen right away, or it could go sideways or down before up, or it might go up before down, and I suppose there are variations regarding where it might go prior to going up in the event that the seemingly more likely odds of it going up plays out... So in the meantime, what are people supposed to do? Buy currently, or just wait or what?  Time plays a factor too in terms of days, months, years or even 4-10 years?  How long are they going to be waiting? Do you know?  Will they still be alive by the time it sufficiently and adequately starts to go up?

What exactly do you mean by novel here? The price is derived from the demand and it's derived from utility which btc provide to the holders in many ways like used as payment processor or as an asset to increase your profit share in the future or making transactions across the globe without any third party so you see lot of actual usage.

If we say about selling then what happens with people is they have invested at high amounts and when they see prices dumping they get panic ignoring the volatility factor believing it will not rise so they incur loss in these situations or some invest more then they afford to loose so they are ignoring the rules of investment and can't control their emotions but they need to realise bitcoin will rise in the future for sure.

Bitcoin derives its value primarily by NOT being part of the exclusive financial system we currently have. Any financial technology that is able to operate outside the existing global financial system means a loss in transaction cost revenue to the powerful banking cartel. The major risk for banks is that their rent-seeking operative behavior, which was mostly based on stalling innovation, is now at risk. It is even way more complex than that of course, but for someone who might not be as familiar with Bitcoin as some people on this forum are, this is one of the reasons Bitcoin is novel: it operates outside the global monopolistic web of banking structures. That alone is a gigantic innovative aspect of Bitcoin as everyone thought banks are the only institutions that are able to keep double spending at a minimum. Bitcoin solved double spending entirely. No administration needed in the banking system sense. Just truth seeking coordination and truth spreading through incentivized problem solving.

ARK Investment Management Star Fund Manager Cathie Wood predicated bitcoin would be exceeded more than $1 million by 2030

Mike McGlone senior commodity strategy at Bloomberg intelligence predict that bitcoin would hit $100000 at the end of 2025

Greg Beard is one of wall Street's most successful natural resources investors at 21 century believes that bitcoin would hit $200000 at the spring of 2027


Reference (https://www.benzinga.com/money/bitcoin-price-prediction)

There are too many speculations about the price of Bitcoin in the future, of course, with them predicting that the next few years Bitcoin will increase rapidly, they are also experts on predictions There are certain reasons why Bitcoin can reach the highest price of all time because it has an annual cycle with its history.

What we have to do is hold Bitcoin for maybe much better for a decade maybe we can feel how to sell at a high price, if that happens it will be an experience for you to hold Bitcoin for a long time, we should also be able to do this without having to be around pressure from others in the sense that we can still hold Bitcoin without selling along the way.

What I want is to stabilize our finances for a long time, for example I am still working for a long time in a company or have a business that can be our income while we can invest without being bothered by other needs because we have enough of the work hard work or other endeavors.

I take a bit of an issue with your above statement that I have bolded, salad daging.

Since we do not have guarantees about bitcoin's price, but we likely will still realize that bitcoin is going to continue to remain amongst the most prestine of assets to hold.  I have no problem with either selling off some bitcoin as the price goes up which may also mean diversifying into some other assets along the way, too.

Of course, there are devil in the details, yet it seems that part of my point is that it will likely become more clear how to manage and/or maintain our bitcoin stash as our stash grows - and in that regard, I doubt that it is healthy to ever think about completely diversifying out of BTC, so in that sense, even if there might be expectations that bitcoin might have a cycle (that includes a very long correction) it may well be the case that many of us will still choose to continue to hold on to a decent amount of our BTC stash.

So for example, if our goal is to get to $2million in value of bitcoin in a kind of sustainable fuck you status, and maybe so far we have accumulated 2.5 BTC, and we anticipate that in the next 10 years, we will be able to accumulate another 2.5 BTC, so that will give us a total of 5 BTC, so if bitcoin prices get to $400k in the next 10 years, then we will have reached our $2million fuck you status.   What you going to do?  Sell your 5 BTC (since it is worth $2 million - which happens to be your goal)? and put it in what?

From this example, you might see why I have issues with the idea of thinking about selling BTC merely because it goes up and reaches your goal.. but I do not have problems in regard to selling some off along the way..or even valuing your BTC in such ways to consider something like the 200-week moving average to help to better inform you how to attempt to manage your BTC holdings... which might authorize you to sell some of your BTC as the price goes up and goes on peaks, but it would not necessarily authorize you to be selling larger portions of your stash but instead continuing to build your stash. and to perhaps continue to diversify in a variety of ways.. so that you can enjoy your life based on bitcoins anticipated appreciation.

Even though I likely need to revise some of my 200-week moving average projections, you can see from my thread and my post last revised on December 28, 2021 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591), I had gone through a process of attempting to valuate BTC base on 200-week moving average projections - and even if that chart might be a bit too ambitious, it does project out that the 200-week moving average might be able to justify 5 BTC reaching $2million by 2026. or maybe within years thereafter.. if I might need to make the slope of the anticipated 200-week moving average to represent a curve rather than a straight line.

If you're referring to the same market that I am familiar with, then I believe that Bitcoin is underperforming fairly compared to other markets because, despite all the negative press, it has been trading in the $19k to $20k zone for a while. Just take a look at how certain stocks slumped yesterday when they reported earnings that fell short of expectations. Stocks like Meta and AMZN sank yesterday, yet bitcoin is still rising despite news that one of the major bitcoin miners suspended mining yesterday. In conclusion, even if other markets are struggling, bitcoin will still move when an opportunity arises.

You need to understand that while we are in a bear market, there will be constant attempts to lower the price even lower. But the 19k level proved to be very reliable and there are still hopes that this level will become insurmountable for the bears. In fact, after trying to grow, yesterday bitcoin began to roll back a little, that is, we can say that there was a reaction to the news, but it was very insignificant.

There is no bear market without a bull market. The bear market that we are experiencing is not something new or strange , it has always been like this . The bear market is just an opportunity for investors to hodl their bitcoin for the next bull market. The bull market will surely take place.  If the world economy is down it doesn't mean their wont be a bull market coming , bitcoin was designed for dip and bull to occur.

The problem this time is that people are stuck in the bear market from a very long time although these conditions are prevalent here from long but there also needs to be incoming profit streams to make yourself positive about market sentiments which is lacking at the moment.But those who have invested in bitcoin and understand how it works holding long term will always be fun for them and profitable so be optimistic about the growth without worrying lot of current trends.

The bear market runs only in a year and even reaches a year and a half of the cycle, maybe this is only to my knowledge in the last few years I have studied it, at least from 2019 we have felt it, at least we can learn from before, even though many people are stuck in the market bears don't mean they don't make a profit even though it's small, at least they have benefited from the short-term buying and selling they did, because it's very risky to play long-term when the bear market is running, if you hold Bitcoin for the long term, we don't seem to need to care because every year bitcoin has a surprise for its holders, in contrast to altcoins if you use it for the long term, the risk of loss will definitely exist.

It's interesting, hopefully it becomes real. We have to be patient to wait for that year, besides I hope I am given health until the year comes. The problem is the mentality of holding back, because I'm not sure I can hold back until such a big price.
I hope it's not just an opinion that aims to get people to buy and they take advantage quickly. But logically if calculated by minning rewards and needs I hope it continues to bring in new users which leads to increased demand and causes price increases.

Though crypto initially opposed itself to traditional fiat money, one thing is common and this is cyclicity. If we take a look at the main BTC supercycles when it reached the highest values, we would see important patterns and taking this I’d assume that we’ll see that the next high will be appx in Nov-Dec`25.

basically everyone predicts good developments in bitcoin going forward, I don't think there is anything to worry about holding it, but by looking at the length of time we wait actually no one knows for sure when it will happen, I think learning to trade is also more profitable considering we will get profit every day when you become a pro trader, while waiting for our investment to give maximum results on its development

It is a matter of patience here, trading is something that needs a lot of patience and faith in the asset you are putting money in. Of course developments are happening in Bitcoin Core, but the common people and even the regular traders are not much interested in that but the prices, apart from a handful of traders who actually keep track of developments.

If your idea of "development" is a price rise, then you are mistaking market movement with technical development. These are two different things.

But that is three years from now, I expect the prices to rise after the year end right away back to 20k at least. This would be a long time to predict for because the highs and lows in bitcoin actually come in at much smaller intervals - probably six months or so.

Nothing is smooth sailing. Only the ups and downs are true.
Now that this economic downturn is global, it cannot be ruled out that some people store their assets in cryptocurrencies and wait for the arrival of the bull market.

A four-year cycle is hard for me. Because I bought a little bit of bitcoin at $50,000. I think the best way to invest is to buy it and then forget about it. Follow its price a few years later.

I doubt that the best way to get into bitcoin is to lump sum at $50k in late 2021 (or perhaps early 2022), and then just sit on that investment, especially if the BTC price has gone down so much.

In other words, if you did your homework and you decided that you had conviction that bitcoin was a good investment at $50k, then you should be able to determine that it is good to continue to buy all the way down from $50k to our current $16k-ish prices.

Of course, you have to figure out what is your budget and what is your strategy, but seems to be too much of a gambling technique to merely sit on your hands and fail refuse to buy more on the way down from $50k to our current $16k-ish prices.

So what is going to be your technique for accumulating BTC?  What is your budget?  Do you continue to make various lump sum purchases of BTC at lower prices, or do you figure out some kind of a DCA strategy, or do you engage in a variety of strategies to DCA, buy on dips and to lump sum invest?

The ultimate particulars regarding how you plan to execute your strategies and how you actually execute your strategies will have to do with a variety of your own personal particulars - and again, to me, it seems that in many cases, just sitting on your hands and waiting is not a very well planned strategy - even though in some cases, sitting on your hands might be amongst the better of plays.... so ultimately, each of us needs to figure out those kinds of particulars for ourselves and hope that we are not too regretful about our way forward, even if we currently feel that we might have made mistakes in the past.

By the way, I would not consider buying at $50k to have had been a mistake - unless you over did it, and unless you were ONLY prepared financially and/or psychologically for the BTC price to go up, at that time.  But even if you have made some mistakes in the past with your finances and/or your psychology, there may still be ways in which you can go forward in a way that you attempt to prepare yourself for whichever direction the BTC price might go from here, even if you might to decide to just start buying something as low as $10 per week worth of bitcoin.

Jay Juan..
your last post started by describing one investment method called "averaging down" which is a way if using the same amount of fiat when buying the high you spend again to buy the low. that average becomes $33k

however.. DCA is a different investment method. where people just buy in regular amounts often no matter the price because you trust one day in the future the price will grow to beat whatever prices you buy at now

i personally dont like to just tell people or see other people tell others to straight out DCA
instead yes put your spare fiat into an exchange regular ready to buy. but look at the monthly market. and see are they buying that specific hour at the weekly/monthy high where by it might be good to wait a bit to see some movements and pick a time to 'buy a dip'

for instance
a google search reveals that retirees in america social security check are released on wednesdays.. meaning many retirees using their government pension as a inflation hedge by throwing it straight into crypto would all deposit on the same day and end up DCA on same day if all just straight up DCAing.. which ends up causing a wednesday to blip up in a temporary high point each mon on that day per month if everyone done it..

so if too many did. its best to deposit. but wait for the dip after that day

Many people in crypto world is afraid of cryptocurrency because of the bearish market that we experiencing now but I know that the value of bitcoin today which is not constant it was not the first time it happens like this the value to go up and come down so it might be changed to a higher price any time so that is why I am not afraid of the price cycle of cryptocurrency

If you have extra fund you can accumulate more during this price crash.  DCA at least in order to lower down your buy price.  And if you don't want to spend more then just hodl and wait for the market to surge on the next bitcoin halving.  As stated by OP, Bitcoin market is cyclical so you just need to wait for the current cycle to end and be on the look for the ATH in the next cycle.

You are overly projecting if you try to lock what I said into something that you are wanting it to be in order that you can create a kind of strawman.

I was giving a general overview of the situation in which the BTC price dropped from $50k (the proclaimed BTC buying starting point of newbie member 721Lamont) to the current BTC price.  No way was I suggesting some kind of a rigid laddering practice that would ONLY be buying in equal increments on the way down, unless the person was wanting to construct such an artificial approach (limitation) for himself/herself.

Sure in the end new BTC accumulators can do whatever the fuck they want, yet becoming too rigid is likely NOT any kind of approach that I would be recommending absent a real specific reason to approach it that way (and I cannot really think of any reason to do that unless a person was already fully allocated in bitcoin and just treating his/her additional accumulation as a kind of detached game.. which hardly makes any sense for the vast majority of people to be treating their bitcoin accumulation in that kind of a way, even though I realize that people come up with all kinds of quasi-retarded approaches to the way that they do things, including something like accumulating bitcoin).


That's true.  A pure DCA method would be buying regularly at whatever price, so for example $10 per week or $100 per week or $2,000 per month or whatever other set schedule that a person might choose.

For sure, if someone is brand new to bitcoin, then I may well recommend starting with something very close to a pure DCA method; however, usually I will also recommend that newbies attempt to be somewhat introspective regarding why they are buying BTC and to at least consider if they want to attempt to employ some kind of a hybrid version of DCA that might also include buying on dips, lump sum investing as ways to potentially front load their investment or to consider ways that they might tailor their approach to the totality of their own situation that would include considering factors related to their cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Of course, there is a need to walk before running, so in that regard, I consider DCA to be a kind of superficial way to get started and I also consider it to be amongst the best of BTC accumulation strategies for those who are just getting started and do not know what to do, and also can be a fall back approach, even when attempting to apply some other BTC accumulation methods or even a fallback approach if someone might consider that they may have graduated away from BTC accumulation, but then for some reason consider that BTC's price moves or some other factors (or even changes in their own considerations) may have caused them to fall back into some kind of BTC accumulation approach to their BTC investment portfolio.


I like to tell people to do what the fuck they want, and they are responsible for their own investment.. but a good starting approach is DCA... and in the end they are responsible for what they choose to do... but get the fuck started.


That might work, but I usually don't recommend waiting as a way to get started.. but hey.. you do you.  If you think waiting is a good idea, then perhaps you already have some BTC.. if you do not have any, you better at least start by buying a little.. and at least at that point you have gotten started... and then once you have already started, you are then able to supplement with whatever other approach.

Of course, there may well be circumstances in which waiting might be prudent.. but if they do not have any BTC, then I hardly imagine waiting to be a good starting plan.



Yes.. I don't have any real problem with that kind of an approach.  For example, when I got started I had created a 6 month budget for myself, and then I created a weekly allowance for myself (which would have been the total budget divided by 26 in order to get my weekly amount).  You could create those approaches on a monthly basis too.. and sure mix and match.  My personal approach was to get a stake in the game over 26 weeks and then to spend within the week.. but sure, you could spend within the month... and you can reconsider your approach too, and ultimately, it is likely a good idea to have a plan in which you are comfortable with what your allowance is and your various time periods in which you want to carry out your budget (spending) based on your various personal circumstances.



I do not recommend those automatic systems.. and I agree with you that each of us should be careful in terms of buying around dates that a lot of other buys might be taking place...

And, by the way, fuck crypto.. we are not talking about crypto here.. we are talking about bitcoin.  I would not recommend any of these strategies in regards to "crypto."  Bitcoin has strong fundamentals and is an asymmetric bet (to the upside) that is why DCA and various other long term investment strategies apply to bitcoin but do not necessarily apply to crypto overall unless you happen to find some shitcoin project that you believe has a long term investment thesis and I doubt that would be true. unless you are just fooling yourself in regards to those various smoke and mirror house of cards affinity scams.


Fuck crypto currencies and shitcoins.  We are not talking about that here.  Try rewording your post and focus on talking about bitcoin in order that you are at least talking about the subject matter of this thread.


I agree with everything that you say serjent05 - except you seem to imply that there is some kind of guarantee that we will be out of this cycle and reach another ATH. 

Sure the odds are pretty decent that we will both be going up and that we will reach new ATHs in the coming years, there is no guarantees that ATH will be reached or that BTC will continue to follow a cycle, even if historically (so far) Bitcoin has largely followed a cycle.

There is no doubt that Bitcoin is cyclical, but it is hard to predict its next move based on its cyclical nature because it always plays out what market doesn't expect. During the current bear cycle it broke its previous ATH (17K) which was unprecedented & even now it is trading around 16K.

The best strategy what I learned by experience is to accumulate it when there is reasonable dip in its price and wait for the next dip to make further buying if you have got enough funds. You will definitely book good profit when bull market returns.

forget everything you have ever learned in your life about the markets of fiat.. those illogicals do not apply to bitcoin because bitcoin is not inflationary like fiat markets.. bitcoin is deflationary..

lesson one is this. do not look at or care about ATH. do not think of ATH as a important number. think of them as just a temporary blip event of premium prices no one wants to buy

flip the mindset.. look at the historic periodic lows to find value. note that the periodic cyclical lows rise in value.

always buy low .. and sell high. low=important.. high is pfft not so
do not use words like "when bull market return"

assume you are only watching the periodic lows that are in constant bull
assume the market price above the lows is just the whimsy of speculation, the clouds in the sky, the vapour. and not a value

yes take advantage of the whimsy movements of the market. but dont have the mindset of bull and bear where you are thinking that the CORRECTION from a 1 day ATH event is a bear and that bears are bad as they are killing your value..
instead realise you are slaves to gravity. you stand at ground level looking up.. lows are the best times to buy. the happy days.

once you forget the ATH notions as being important. and instead live in gravity of a grass field of cows(bulls you can milk) you feed as you take them up a hill. you stop thinking of bears.
milk the cows for profit as thats what they are there for
.
then learn about the ground you stand on that supports you which is above sea level (non zero) and while looking at the ground instead of the vapour clouds that dont last long notice how over time you are going uphill.

this non zero ground is not based on whimsy of the market. its based on the actual bitcoin cost. the underlying cost of mining. yep its a real thing.. its tangeable.. the mining hardware and energy to create the blockchain is the real infrastructure. unlike the market.
costing out the lowest price on the planet to mine gives you the underlying value you stand ON
this supports you and rises over time.
if no one on the planet can farm for less than X no one can sell for less and no one would want to . thus supporting a certain level

the lowest costs.. thats the important numbers to keep in mind. not the market whimsy ATH temporary events of social speculation and manipulation in the clouds of vapour.

then you will start to understand the cycles more.. the halving event is based on the blockchain units, not markets.. has effects on the mining costs of those units.. understand them and then you will see the big picture of true value

the market stuff is just the speculation above ground above value. which is volatile and stormy and unpredictable. take advantage when you can of the speculation but stay grounded to the underlying value
then things will make more sense and give you more of a sense of security and stable growth over time of deflation

..
you will then over time start to have this mindset.
i years ago got a nice hoard of coin. i do not think about "omg i missed a ATH to sell" instead i think "well 2020 value was $3k 2021 value was $10k 2022 value is $15k". i know each year the value of my coin goes up. because i stay grounded. looking at the grass that feeds my cows that i can milk when i want

Keep holding!

It's hard to predict what the future holds and whether history will repeat itself. We are still in a bear market period and it is a great opportunity for me to invest and accumulate more bitcoins. The Bitcoin cycle never seems to disappoint and is expected to deliver huge gains during the next bull run.

That is absolutely right, still the fiat market has a huge impact on bitcoin. Since the last 10+ years there was a flood of fiat money, we could see bitcoin increase. What will happen hoverer if the next 10+ years we will see high interest rates and not much new money being printed.

here is a revelation to you about "flood of fiat"

you will be surprised to learn about fiat market of bitcoin

imagine in 2012 an average "minnow trader" had $400 a month to spend to buy bitcoin
with bitcoin at $6 a coin. meant they got 66btc

this does not mean that now that 1btc is 2500x more in price($16k).. that people are average spending 2500x more per month
(that minnow is not forced to deposit more money just to trade/get in)

what you are actually seeing is minnow investors are still paying $400 a month

however bitcoin sellers no longer want to give them 66 coins for $400.. instead they will give them 0.025btc for the offered $400

yep. bitcoin market is not simply more money needs to be put in, to raise bitcoin prices..

its not like fiat shares where only whole shares have to be bought which means investors have to pay more to get invested.

bitcoin is divisible

in 2012 the minnow and whales were noticeably in 2 'order' amounts you would see flowing orders of 1btc and "wall orders"(hard to break through) of 1000btc on markets..

now we see 0.001 and "wall orders" of 1btc

its not where people who deposited $6 in 2012 to buy 1btc now have to pay $16k+ just to get 'in'

they can still pay in just $6. its just the seller gives them decimals..
which then translate to being $16k for a whole coin (due to math, not money). even without people actually handing over $16k for whole coins on the market orders, bitcoin prices can and do go up

yep the market price is not actually buyers swapping whole $16k for a whole 1btc

its little orders of like $160 to buy 0.01 which translates to (math: away from real trade hand changing of real funds).. as  a statistic of $16k for 1 btc
..
so lets say instead of $15k being min mine cost. it went to $20k a coin mining cost
lets say instead of $400 a buyer only had $300 spare

a bitcoin seller..
now 0.025btc for $400 (translates to $16k a coin)
becomes 0.015btc for $300  (translates to $20k a coin)

so even with les "buyer money" deposited into a market. the price can still rise. because the sellers give less coin to those buyers

.. a system unlike fiat stock/shares where people have to buy whole shares. which means more fiat is needed to be deposited to buy shares

The annual cycle of bitcoin in my opinion is something like this:

2012 and 2013 were bull markets (uptrends)
2014 and 2015 were bear market (downtrend)
2016 and 2017 were bull markets (uptrends)
2018 and 2019 are bear markets (downtrend)
2020 and 2021 will be bullish (uptrend)
2022 and 2023 will be bearish (downtrend)
2024 and 2025 will be bullish (uptrend)

and that's just my opinion, so I've never been afraid of a bitcoin drop and I consider this drop a big discount that shouldn't be wasted, and DCA is the best choice to increase buying during a downtrend. ;D

I am sure about that but for me there is no guarantee about it but we will soon get out of the current cycle and reach a new cycle by achieving ATH.
I see history, what I understand, behind it, there are always those who say that the 4-year bitcoin cycle will become a routine, even if it happens again in the future, I will still be happy that bitcoin will recover and be bullish again.

For me now is a downtrend cycle that has just started we have to prepare for it from now on, to get bitcoin and DCA and Dips is a common practice now, for those who buy above have to stay patient and forget about your investment money, and come back after a year 2024.
As for my DCA practice I have to keep it running all week and it can't get boring for me, even though it's a bit annoying to see the prices.
But I can do that without reducing me to bitcoins.

I read one post today where a user says that maybe we won't see a big growth anymore, but I don't think that's the case, the cycle persists and everything repeats every time. Therefore, we will see the new ATH again, I believe in it, but I don’t know how much the price goes up like many here. Yes, you are right, it is not very smart to buy bitcoin when it reaches high values.

But this time with all-time lows, things are a little different. It used to be that the previous high became the next low in a new bearish cycle, this time it should have been around 19k, but as we see this time we went lower, so we can say that this regularity has changed.

Definitely now the time has come when it is worth buying bitcoin. I also bought at a higher price before, but I should buy now all the more so that my average purchase price is even more profitable. The best days are right now, so this is definitely something to take advantage of. I will be happy if the price starts to rise tomorrow, but I will also not be upset if we continue to fall for some time.

This is something that is clearly visible to everyone, every time, every new cycle, even every year the price rises and it becomes obvious that the price will continue to rise further, this is obvious to many, but fears make people do stupid things. You are right, those who can see the all picture will stick to their strategy and will definitely make good profits in the future, this is obvious.

I am still learning in this forum, can only comment. that, the world is like a wheel. those below will go up, and those above will go down. so bitcoin is also like that. even though it continues above it will definitely go down, and if it continues below it will definitely go up later.

2011 seen a grounded value of 30cent.
    2011 that bubbled to ATH of $32   = 100x

2013 seen a grounded value of $40.
    2013 that bubbled to ATH of $1.2k = 30x

2017 seen a grounded value of $900.
    2017 that bubbled to ATH of $20k = 21x

2021 seen a grounded value of $10k.
    2021 that bubbled to ATH of $75k = 7.5x

lets call this wide gap the "window"
yes the window is getting less multiplier gradually and stablising..

dont expect large 100x windows expect more 2-10x windows
....
you also ended this part of quote with
'when it reaches new high 'values' (facepalm)
'when it reaches new high 'prices' (smiles)

the cycles are not about yearly bears or bulls.. forget about bulls and bears.
bulls and bears are the cattle of fiat inflation markets..

bitcoin is a dairy cow. it stays grounded and as you let it graze(hoard it) you can then milk it(profit) at the end of the day(future)

the cycles are actually based on the halvings. which are ~4 years. and set as a rule in bitcoin to be around that 4 year..

bitcoin is based on code and uses PoW which has costs. so base the cycles and costs on the actual things underlying bitcoin.. code and costs.. forget the market whimsy. the cycles and costs doubling are built into bitcoin via coded rules that dont break

market highs are a totally different creature.. filled with fish (minnows and whales) they can create ripples and waves and tsunami's with the market price


it was not the case that previous highs becomes instant minimum of he next cycles low..

the 2009-2012 cycle.. seen a ATH of $32.. yet after the 2012 halving. we seen prices below $32

eventually yes as the lows raise you can forget that the market price will ever go to $32 again. but thats like the next cycle over

EG the 2012-2016 cycle did at the start see prices below $32. but the cycles after that dont worry about $32 number anymore

EG the 2016-2020 cycle did see prices below $1.2k. but the cycles after that dont worry about $1.2k number anymore

EG the 2020-2024 cycle did see prices below $20k. but the cycles after that wont worry about $20k number anymore

you will also see this

bitcoins first price discovery was 2010(not 2009). the first cycle started 2010

now each cycle.. is actually of the halvening (first would have been if price discovery began in 2009)
so start of cycle(SOC) +1 year is when the ATH happen
SOC 2010 ATH 2011
SOC 2012 ATH 2013
SOC 2016 ATH 2017
SOC 2020 ATH 2021

this means we may not see prices go over $75k until 2025
but we won see under $20k after 2024

the exception is this though
there might be other ATH inside the same cycles
but playing it safe of keeping expectations rational dont bank on it. treat next ATH as a bonus if before the next cycle begins

Even if there is some truth to what you are saying, that does make a whole hell of a lot of sense  in terms of figuring out where we might be at any point in time and also to relatively assess bitcoin as compared with various other assets and/or currencies.

Even our attempt to describe bitcoin cycles has its limitations because surely historically there have been cycles in bitcoin, and we can look through bitcoin's  history to attempt to explain where bitcoin has been relative to other asset classes, and the cycle remains only part of the explanation and might even lead us to the wrong place if we fail and refuse to account for other dynamics that likely include that bitcoin is a paradigm shifting invention of an asset class that had never existed in history - and there are quite a few people in the world who are still getting used to the idea, so in that sense we cannot even necessarily be sure about how long it might take for various networking effects to grow within the framework of Metcalfe principles and even Gresham law ideas that grown along with increased bitcoin knowledge so that we have continued and ongoing exponential s-curve adoption of bitcoin that contributes to the knowledge and those who are creating and/or participating in the various network effects, as those network effects had been outlined by Trace Mayer around 2014/2015 (https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/), too.

by adding in more 'dynamics' actually cause confusion

sticking to the basic fundamentals helps.
bitcoin is a 4 year cycle due to the halving events

THEN seeing other events that occur because of it then helps to explain other things.

EG a year after price discovery GPU mining become the main mining
method which stemmed the 2011 increase due to mining cost increases
(along with other social events spurring the hype)

2013 asics became the main mining mechanism.

2017 a large change in the next gen asics(s9 became the main popular asic
2021 the next gen asic S19 become the main popular mining
(along with other social events spurring the hype)..
...
there are other events too in between those, but to a lesser extent
like inside the halving years themselves, where you see the price at start of year be atleast half that of end of year

2012 ranged from $5 - $40
2016 ranged from $450 - $900
2020 ranged from $7.5k - $25k
which shows inside the halving year the market also doubles+ due to the halving

but if you take away all the speculative sentiment of temporary movement between the main events. and only stick to ground level of the lows and not even consider the highs in regards to VALUE

it becomes clear

however other coins.. have lost their cycles
lets use ethereum
splitting off from its 'classic' start. and then later again merging into PoS has broke ethereum value from any concept of cyclical pattern

ethereum half a year ago had a good supported value (via mining costs(cheapest way to get ethereum on the planet) of ~$700+ and the markets were $1.5k at the time.
then due to PoS the underlying cost went massively down to $40, meaning that ethereum is no longer cheapish at a ~2x of value. but instead is a premium speculated bubble at a 30x of value

its concepts of sticking to rules and costs has gone out the window. how people store it has changed with its custodial staking where large millions of coins can be ripped away from custodians if more changes are made.

ethereum have broke any underlying value pattern or security support they had.
and now are just blindly speculating at a premium via just shadow tracing bitcoin price movements.
alot of people think ethereum "value" is in its utility as a base coin for other tokens.. and yet if the other token market was actually utilitised instead of its fake sales due to the seller selling to himself to pretend his token is worth high amount.. the ethereum market if it has utility would have it own price sentiments that peak and dip independently and differently to the bitcoin market due to utility sentiment changes of the day.. and not be a shadow trace market of bitcoins price wiggles

in short any altcoin which when looking at the price movements show signs of just shadow tracing a main coin.. proves the altcoin has not independant price sentiment of demand/utility need

I still like my way of describing it better.

 :D :D :D :D

And sure, of course, the amount of detail, description and going beyond the basics will depend on the audience.. Sometimes people are not ready for more detailed explanations, and there are going to be frameworks that are more understandable to some people versus others depending on their own personal experiences and even their receptiveness to learning about the topic.

Devil is always in details; it is important to deep dive when you do root cause analysis to reach the bottom of the issue to understand what lies in the bottom. It is true that Bitcoin is cyclical, but we can never predict the length of the bull or bear cycle by simply analyzing the historical data because fundamentals keep changing with the passage of time. We all believe that bear run of Bitcoin will end but when, only time will answer this question.

Perhaps this knowledge is already enough to buy bitcoin at 16k and in the future, in the next cycle, expect to get x3-x5 from your investments. This is excellent result, I don't know what kind of investment could give at least approximate results in terms of profitability. And given the trend that this time Bitcoin won't make x20 or x30 like previous cycles, it's still a very good profit.

I do have the same opinion, looking at the previous history, the coming 2023 will possibly be the transition of cycles, so we might see the recent cycle end at a bearish market and transition to the next cycle as a bearish market.  From that that the market will still be bearish until the last quarter of 2023 and will start to change sentiment in the 1st quarter of 2024.  The sentiment will be fully bullish possibly a month before the halving then will continue till 2025 when a new ATH will be possibly recorded.

Thanks for sharing your valued analysis which seems realistic in the context of current market situation & is certainly helpful for long term investors to take buying position in Bitcoin. Please also share your thoughts about the likely scenario if FED pauses interest rate increase because CPI is declining, and I think this trend may continue for coming months. Consecutive increase in interest rates has slowed down economic activity worldwide, it needs a stimulant to initiate recovery process.

Your Statements are based on Speculation.

Past Performance does not Guarantee Future Profit.

Just because btc recovered in prior cycles is no guarantee it happens again.
One Big Difference from the prior cycles is Venture Capital was insanely high,
now Venture Capital is drying up , due to the baby boomers moving into safer investments for retirement.
So that is a huge difference that many here may pay for not noticing in this cycle.
IF BTC was holding like in the past, $20k should have stayed the bottom, as the $15k btc proves today, all bets are off for the next cycles,
there is no real bottom and no future guarantee of price increase verses fiat.
BTC Price Spike or BTC Price Collapse, either is possible in the coming years.

Welcome to the Crypto Thunderdome,
not everyone will survive.

Given the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, should we expect that current bear run is not going to end anytime soon and may even continue in 2023 but what will be the likely scenario if crude oil price starts coming down (which is a major economic input & its price is stable around$80 since more than a month) and consequently business activity picks up. I think if it happens then current bear run will end & Bitcoin will enter in stabilization phase.  

In regards to the bolded, it's important to note that there could be multiple dumps before a pump/pumps. A dump followed by pump is not always guaranteed

To the second bolded, better to buy whenever there are significant corrections. And don't buy what you can't afford to risk so you don't panic when things arent going your way. Too much risk makes people panic when things are going according to plan.



The important thing is to always contribute something good and useful (not necessarily money) to the Bitcoin system if you want your investment to keep increasing in values.  

Of course panic always haunts, especially among beginners who have just entered the world of crypto/bitcoin.
it's a natural thing among beginners, because many beginners start investing using borrowed money or hot money.
but for beginners it is true that this is the right time to invest, don't come when you go up and go when you go down.

Every business has a session, in times of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency marketplace is the session to buy and buy and get home and be happy, something good we happen soon or later, while selling is not a good option base on the current price of bitcoin, while sell and get lost and also regret later when the market set as bull run. That is how i lost it in last bull run. and also thanks for a great community of these forum for me to be here, while learning more about bitcoin invest, which is Buy at low and have patient is the key.  

They are not actual investors that make them panic. I think it is more correct to call them as speculators who hop on the boat when they see opportunities but don't analyze enough about risk. Therefore if risk is higher than opportunity, they will be panic.

Real investors have reasons to spend money and they have reasons to be calm when market has big red candle. How many years they are in the market are helpful for them to avoid panic too. Because with real experience, they will know how the market works and how their mentality can be affected in bear and bull market. They understand by themselves how their mind will be attacked negatively by bear market, bad news and fud.

I think day traders hardly make any profit in bear market, usually they lose more than what they gain but they do make good profit in bull market with some basic knowledge/skills of technical indicators those are helpful to make right decision of entry and exit. when Bitcoin journey is upwards, and volatility is not so high as are witnessing now. In my opinion, the best strategy to make money in Bitcoin market is to buy when everybody is selling and sell when everybody is buying.

You are right, traders of derivative markets do make money even during the crypto winter season but only professionals who have good emotional control and well skilled in using technical charts as well as risk/money management tools. In future & margin trading, only one spike in Bitcoin price can completely wipe out the account if it is not well secured.

that's right, friend, but sometimes it's very difficult to avoid panic when the price drops, as is happening now, the price of bitcoin drops very deeply, and lots of people panic, not even a few experienced people panic, but of course people's opinions are different different and of course have their own way to achieve success in investing in bitcoin. but if you look at the cycle it is easy and simple, but in reality it is very heavy. especially if the money invested is very large. of course there will be more panic. especially if the money from the loan, of course, the panic will be even worse.

It is difficult to control emotions when your hard-earned money is at stake. When market is making consecutive red candles, we often book losses fearing market will fall furthermore but market often recovers from its support. This is why it is important to use technical indicator to find support and resistance levels to make entry and exit levels. Though technical analysis is science of probability, not certainty, but it is a tool that often saves you from huge losses.

That's why everyone is only advised to invest what they can afford to lose, because basically we never know what will happen in the future. A good potential to hope for, but something like a long-term trend reversal might still be reasonable to worry about.

If they can only afford to lose $1K, then don't ever try to multiply it to $10K or more out of a penchant for imagining big profit. So this should be an extra consideration especially if they don't invest in bitcoin.

You must know that a trader or an investor must have the ability to control his emotion. If someone can't control emotion or he often feels panic, it means he still isn't ready to be a crypto trader/investor. Never think to be a trader or investor if you can't control emotion, it only leads to a big opportunity for big losses. About loan money to use for trading or investment, it is not recommended to do. Everyone must avoid using loan money since not guarantee of success in crypto trading/investment.

everyone that bought into bitcoin or acquired bitcoin in every single year apart from 2021-22 is in profit right now

everyone in 2021 is hoarding lower than their buy.
70% of miners in 2021 are hoarding lower than acquisition

~50% of everyone in 2022 is hoarding lower than their buy.

but in short. only those holding less than 18month is in fear
everyone else just wish hopes for more gains than their current gains

I greatly agree, a dump followed by pump can be a bull trap that where a pump is followed by another dump. We have seen this kind of strategy a lot, just like what happen recently where the price of Bitcoin slightly recovers but got dump when the FTX fiasco happen, then the price even go lower than its previous bottom.


True, but it doesn't hurt to DCA every time a new bottom is recorded as long as the money used is something that they can afford to lose.


Make sense, every little effort if collected is way better than a single huge effort.

Investing in Bitcoin is not supposed to be a compulsory thing that is why people make mistakes and use borrowed funds to invest and the later time they will start complaining about not making profits. To invest in Bitcoin, there must be a vast understanding on how the market works which is the reason why newbies that do not understand the market will keep making mistakes of taking the wrong steps or movement in the crypto market. The market is volatile with vast movement which could lead to loses or profits depending on how we make decisions about the marketm

Problem is with their impression. Many people were heard to become rich because of this technology as investments or assets but many non-crypto users are not aware of how hard it is to generate profit. Years of studying graphs if you're planning of trading. Years of research if you're into project investments. It took years for those individuals who became successful in this industry. There will never be an easy profit. Risks will always be involved and if you are an investor who cannot endure losing your 'one last shot' of money to invest then you're not ready yet. An individual must have a ready to lose money if you want to earn profit from investing not only in this technology, but in general field of investment ofcourse.

Bitcoin is not like that we can still expect something to recover as long as it doesn't sell it in a bearish time and lasts for a long time I only believe in bitcoin and not with other coins.
Yes, the potential for bitcoin can still be expected with long-term trends because we believe in a 4-year cycle where bitcoin will return to its highest price, so there's no need to worry, basically we will be at the peak of the price again.

We always imagine a tendency for big profits, for example, if we invest 10k in this shadow, it will definitely be big, although we cannot determine how big the profits will be in the future, for sure if you hold on longer it will be even more valuable at a very high value .

One thing which changes with this cyclic bitcoin movement is that the bitcoin prices movement in the bull market will not give 5x-8x returns in the coming years. This means that in the next bull run we might see only a 2x price increase from the previous bull market high of 68,000$. I would see bitcoin anywhere near 120,000$ to 140,000$ in the next cycle.

However, if we see the current price of bitcoin near 16500$, this would be another 5x to 7x return and this is not bad in my opinion.

Many new people who entered the market in 2021, may not believe that bitcoin may reach to all-time high again but people who saw the 2017 bull run are well aware that this is the best time to take their positions for the next bull market.

I was also one of  those who were surprised to see Bitcoin falling below its previous ATH because I used to believe that history always repeats itself, what happened in the past, same thing will happen now as typically human psychology never changes and this is what theory of technical analysis is based upon. What I learned from unpleasant events of 2022 that technical analysis only indicate probability to some extent but not certainty of what may happen next and it is more important to keep an eye on fundamentals.

Bitcoin price Cycle in different years

2009-2010


2011


2012


2013


2014-2016


2017


2018-2019


2020


2021-2022 present


Totally bitcoin market a complicated cycle...

I don't care 🐻 Bearish market... many experts pridicted bitcoin would hit more than $200000 ... Only hold ! Hold!! Hold!!!

You are right that technical analysis is just a prediction and it doesn't necessarily go right all the time. Many analysts on social media are predicting that Bitcoin will be above $200K after next halving, I fail to understand, how it is possible when Bitcoin adoption is very slow, Salvador tried to adapt it as currency of payment to buy goods and services  but it didn't work out. I am also disappointed with performance of Bitcoin during economic crisis, it correlated with stock market in stead of Gold while both (Bitcoin & gold )are considered stores of value.

Long-term investors are more likely to dump their bitcoin when a new ATH is reached and will re-enter the market for another cycle after a dip. I see it as something more doable than having to hold the same amount of bitcoin for years and ignoring them from conversion while at ATH.

If indeed they believe these bitcoins are cyclical then they should be able to sell on a profitable cycle and reinvest on the next cycle allowing them to make more bitcoin than the previous conversion. I mean someone who sold their 1 bitcoin for $60K last year will probably be able to buy 3 more bitcoin this year after the 75% drop in price.

People frequently say that, and it is usually not true... Why don't you look at bitcoin's history?

And, yeah sure what you are saying could happen.

And yeah history is not exactly something that we can rely upon.. .. but what you are suggesting does not seem to be a very likely scenario, even though you are describing it as if it were a "given" or a likely scenario.. .. you even used the words "more likely"... yeah right..  ::) ::) ::)


You can treat your crossings of the previous ATH however you like.

A lot of folks have been burned pretty badly when they had played those kinds of games, and some of those folks who sell too much too early end up becoming bitter no coiners who haunt the forum threads for years with their whining how the BTC price is going to go down, and the price does not end up going down in the timeline that they would either be able to recover or it never ends up going below the price that they had sold more than they should have.


There are a lot of ways to deal with anticipated cycles and to hedge in regards to anticipated (and likely inevitable BTC volatility - without knowing volatility direction) without playing around and gambling that the BTC price will go down and then it does not end up going down.



I would not fuck around with that kind of gambling.

Sure maybe if you had 1 BTC, then maybe you could have sold 0.5 BTC or 0.33 BTC.. or take some kindc of a reasonable hedge.. but you are likely going to end up screwing yourself if you believe that you can come even close to being able to time tops and bottoms... a lot of reckt folks who had previously tried those strategies and got their asses handed to them.

But, hey.. you do you.

You can do whatever you like... it's your money... your strategy and your psychology.. but don't be trying to tell us that you know what the BTC price is going to do, when you likely are mostly guessing and playing probabilities, just like a lot of other guys here, and sure maybe you might be more right than others, but I would be careful in terms of betting too much on those kinds of strategies.. especially when there are likely better strategies that do not involve so much playing around, gambling etc etc..   Are you interested in the better strategies, or do you think you got it all figured out in terms of your abilities to time future tops and bottoms?  By the way.. it is easy-peasy to time past tops and bottoms.. a bit more challenging to even come close in terms of timing future tops and bottoms.. while at the same time, there are prudent and reasonable strategies that guys/gals/institutions/governments can employ to better manage their BTC portfolios rather than fucking around with trying to trade this asset, aka king daddy.

I think long term investors who strongly believe in Bitcoin, will not sell their Bitcoin even at what they guess is the peak of Bull cycle, (because there is no way to correctly predict top & bottom of Bitcoin), rather they will find some way to stake them & generate passive income on their Bitcoin holding.

Taking buy & sell decisions based on technical signals is not a bad strategy but its accuracy is always doubtful. Though technical charts give some hints to identify top & bottom of Bitcoin but it is like forecasting weather, you may not be absolutely right.

It is right that long term investors don't sell their Bitcoins even  during the bull run when it makes ATH and we see double & triple tops on technical charts but they don't get tempted and continue holding their Bitcoins because they believe that due to rising inflation every class of asset will depreciate in the long term but Bitcoin is deflationary by its nature so it is the best hedge against all assets.

every bitcoin expert had said it has died a thousand times before and already, so another death won't do anything to it anymore, furthermore I would agree, bitcoin has its cycles primarily caused by market trends and the fact that it halves its circulating supply every couple of years. This has been the case for a long time with bitcoin and will remain to be the case until a paradigm shift occurs within its systems and status quo. Critics will continue and will repeat it every time, saying bitcoin is dead every time the bear market ensues but at the end of the day, when the skies of the market clear up and assets pick their paces up once more, bitcoin will exponentially rise in relevance and value once again.