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[ethereumhunter]

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Wat we can see is that bitcoin will not stay stuck, it will go up or go down, what we can be sure is it will move.

Is complex to predict when the next ATH will come and how high it will hit, but we can be sure it will happen in the next years.

Buy on the deep and just hold, that's the right way to roll.

Bitcoin will always move up and down because that is where its appeal is to make people try to profit from trading. What we can do is try to analyze every bitcoin price movement so that we can find a good time for us to enter the market. And if we haven't seen the time, maybe we can continue to wait while continuing to analyze because the time to enter the market can be in the afternoon, evening, or even at night. And it depends on how prepared we are to survive. But if you are not ready to see the losses that can arise from trading, maybe you just need to buy and hold for a while and don't have to look at market conditions shortly.

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[romero121]

The peak that is achieved during the end of the year 2017 will give the clear picture on how the price movement have happened with bitcoin over the years. Lets take the next peak price that bitcoin reached. It happened during the end months of 2021. The time difference between the two is exactly 4 years. During this time period the market experience a downturn, and a stabilized bull movement pushing the price to mark its ATH.

[crwth]

I like that little hodler comic. It's probably relatable to others as well. I do imagine that the newbies that are coming to crypto need that kind of motivation, especially from us who have been with a couple of those cycles already. It's only a matter of time before it becomes a new cycle. I hope that everyone sees it as something to be okay about. It's best to get into it and continue riding the wave.

[tjtonmoy]

Price dump is not a bad thing if you can read charts and analyze what will come next. Pro traders and holder knows that fact and that's why they are pro. But newbie who are only here for months will panic and sell whenever they see that their expectation to make profit from BTC is not getting filled. But they never see the bigger picture here.
All we need to do is seize the opportunity to fill our bags in the bear run. And wait for BTC to run to the top again.

[Dave1]

Yep 4 year cycles are still valid. We’re in the first year of a bear market, 2023 will also be bearish. Expect green shoots of recovery in 2024 as we move towards the halving. Things start to move up Q3 & Q4 of 2024 followed by epic up during 2025.

I hope this scenario remains the same so that we can really prepare ourselves even though so far we have to be shaken by the downtrend. The market is still normal for decline or bearish as of now, this should only be considered a good opportunity to accumulate assets to expect profits in another cycle in the future.

For sure you have seen the cycle already and knows our to prepare. And as others have been saying, this is a perfect opportunity to accumulate. We don't want to see bear market, but we need this to turn positive and the best thing to do is to buy.

Bitcoin is a potential asset although now some doubts can be felt by some in the community. I still believe this will be good in the future, maybe it will be very good if the 4 year scenario can be repeated in the next few years.

2017 and 2021 bull run already proved that every 4years we see new all time high. So again maybe in 2025, it will proved that bitcoin will continue and repeat the cycle itself.

[lixer]

If we see the stats, a cycle is not the right descritpion, we can see it more like a wave...

Wat we can see is that bitcoin will not stay stuck, it will go up or go down, what we can be sure is it will move.

Is complex to predict when the next ATH will come and how high it will hit, but we can be sure it will happen in the next years.

Buy on the deep and just hold, that's the right way to roll.

And that is why they say ride the wave. The word cycle is still being used here in cryptos like when they say that the market has a bear and bull cycle. If you can not predict in your own, you can follow the predictions that you see online. The last quarter is yet to begin and maybe there is still chance for the coins to hit their ath's.

It's not possible to determine if how high they can go but as long as many countries are still not involved in btc, there is still a chance the value can grow for more. For now, there are predictions which states btc can go 100k, 500k and even 1m dollars. It's not wrong to believe on them because btc can sometimes do the impossible things.

[kawetsriyanto]

Just another reminder that the bitcoin market is cyclical, and everything that we are seeing with bitcoin now has already happened before~

Indeed. We have experienced bearish and bullish many times. Both bearish and bullish always changed, they are only temporarily happening. Just look at the market trend cycle every 4 years, we should understand how long bearish and bullish probably last. If we learn the history of the market trend cycle every 4 years previously, we shouldn't be worried to hold our Bitcoin. The problem is, many people aren't patient and always dream to get instant profits from Bitcoin investment. This type of people are easily influenced by FUDs, they may do panicking selling.

My friends around me always remind each other that this decline is not forever, we will face a positive trend again after the bear market is gone.

It is different from my friends. We stop talking/discussing Bitcoin as long as the bearish market happening. They prefer to forget their Bitcoin temporarily because they feel sad whenever they remember the decline of their Bitcoin assets. I know my friends have a weak mentality as crypto investors. This shouldn't happen if they trust Bitcoin future. 

[Mauser]

A correction is a time to buy, not to sell. Don't worry - just HODL (or buy more).

I fully agree with you, we should be buying low and sell high, not the other way round. If we hold our bitcoins through the whole year already there is no point in selling now. When it comes to the price patterns of crypto currencies, they are no different to stocks, commodities or other risky assets. That's why mean reversion strategies work so well with crypto currencies. As for bitcoins one good approach is to use DCA for buying new coins. When we use a fixed dollar amount to buy each month that we will take advantage of the cheaper prices by acquiring more coins. Looking at a longer time frame also helps to not fall in the trap of panics and sell when everybody else is selling.

[$crypto$]

My friends around me always remind each other that this decline is not forever, we will face a positive trend again after the bear market is gone.

It is different from my friends. We stop talking/discussing Bitcoin as long as the bearish market happening. They prefer to forget their Bitcoin temporarily because they feel sad whenever they remember the decline of their Bitcoin assets. I know my friends have a weak mentality as crypto investors. This shouldn't happen if they trust Bitcoin future. 

Yeah that's probably their way of not looking at the market because if you look at it then of course the mental will be slightly affected, how can this decline be long enough in a bearish trend for those who buy higher of course they will feel bored when this bad trend will end but indeed by forgetting or not discussing it again a little bit they forgot about the current situation. 

At all costs should avoid panic selling or selling now but it would be better for them to hold on with a strong mentality and lots of support to keep it going.

[Minor Miner]

The fact that the Bitcoin market is cyclical doesn't mean that the cyclic pattern will continue forever.
The cycles that lead to bigger ATHs would continue only if there is bigger BTC adoption around the world. I can't see such massive adoption right now. Even the mass Bitcoin adoption in El Salvador kinda failed. Some countries simply aren't ready for Bitcoin.
There's always a risk of the global "powers that be" banning all PoW blockchains and favoriting CBDCs and PoS altcoins.
Do you really think that the Bitcoin price would hit 100K USD, if such thing happens? I'm not spreading FUD here, I'm just trying to be realistic.
Another risk is banning all hardware non-custodial wallets and requiring all BTC users to keep their coins in centralized custodial wallets that comply with KYC policies. This wipes away the entire concept of Bitcoin and "be your own bank".
I still believe that another ATH price will be reached in 2024 or 2025, but I also have doubts.

Investing is always risky and looking at bitcoin is even riskier as it is still a relatively new asset class to assert its certainty. But with what happened in the past and the outstanding benefits it brings, we have a right to hope for the future. Maybe the cycle won't repeat exactly and the economic effects will keep things from repeating, but remember that the value of something is created by people's beliefs. As long as people have a demand for bitcoin, bitcoin has value, demand increases while supply is limited, the price will surely skyrocket.

Many countries are not ready for bitcoin but let's look to the past when bitcoin was known only by small investors like us and over time in 2020-2021 we have companies, the country is gradually becoming more bitcoin-friendly. It can be seen that it is changing in a positive direction. So the future of bitcoin is still something brighter than in doubt.

[goldkingcoiner]

If people just adhered to their own hodl strategy and did not fall victim to the temptations of emotional thinking and decision making, we would all be so much richer right now. But alas, the fact remains that people are only humans and will continue to make mistakes that they should know better than to make, is nothing surprising. Thanks for the motivational thread on why you should not sell, especially panic-sell. I imagine threads like these do stop many noobies from making mistakes during volatile events like dips (corrections).  Once we see Bitcoin adopted by the world and once every single Satoshi has been mined (or at least close to almost mined), we will hopefully see lower volatility and less whale market manipulation.

[Piesel]

Actually the present Bitcoin price was once an all-time high but then we already have so many other all time high after then so we a familiar with this market condition, unless for the newbies who are just getting into Bitcoin and have taken Bitcoin as some form of an escape route from financial limitation there by taking Bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme and they expect a 10x price increase the moment they buy.

But for those who have been around for a while now, you will know that the present Bitcoin price condition is just a.phase that will soon pass away and a new price trend will be seen again.

This is how it has been and that will not change in the future, so we have to get used to it.

[TheUltraElite]

The peak that is achieved during the end of the year 2017 will give the clear picture on how the price movement have happened with bitcoin over the years. Lets take the next peak price that bitcoin reached. It happened during the end months of 2021. The time difference between the two is exactly 4 years. During this time period the market experience a downturn, and a stabilized bull movement pushing the price to mark its ATH.

Even if the charts dont indicate, the price will cycle back between bull and bear levels it is just a matter of when and patience. Most traders lack the patience to hold their coins between these periods and thus lead to weak hands selling coins at the wrong time or buying at the top. Either way the experience that we have gained over the years is that massive gains are possible but need a properly time trade.

The current economic state has been having a prolonged effect on the bear market and this has been gnawing away at traders' patience. Therefore the slow decay in the price due to selling happening.

Still the price are ripe for buying at a discount if you know what I mean.

[uchegod-21]

Actually the present Bitcoin price was once an all-time high but then we already have so many other all time high after then so we a familiar with this market condition, unless for the newbies who are just getting into Bitcoin and have taken Bitcoin as some form of an escape route from financial limitation there by taking Bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme and they expect a 10x price increase the moment they buy.

But for those who have been around for a while now, you will know that the present Bitcoin price condition is just a.phase that will soon pass away and a new price trend will be seen again.

This is how it has been and that will not change in the future, so we have to get used to it.

Everyone here was once a newbie in the cryptocurrency until we began to understand how things work and begin to play along. I remember I have sold bitcoin at great loss even when I don't have need for the money. It is just because my money was going down and I thought it will not rise again. After I sold at great loss, it was less that 14days, Bitcoin turned back and entered into profits, that was actually a great lesson for me. It showed me that even if bitcoin goes very down, it will still return back to bull. Many of the newbies will not understand till they learn by experience and after that they will get use to the process. Bitcoin is just cyclical.

[JayJuanGee]

Actually, I really really really don't think people hodl much in this space. As far as my personal experience tells me, the more people say hodl, the less they've actually done so. It's just the mentality they have to tell others to hodl so they can sell at the high.

Like you said, the signs are when they start blaming other things/people/companies for manipulation but they don't complain when the same people are manipulating to make prices go up.

All those who are asking to hold, really they are holding? maybe or not, two types of investors are common in cryptocurrency, one is the whale investor who can manipulate the entire market. Another is the general investor who moves depending on the market conditions. Those who say to hold they are part of the general investors. Actually whale don't say anything they just take the opportunity and do their thing. Whale investors have already started their holdings while ordinary investors are forced to sell for various reasons.

Definitely I think you're missing at least one other type of "investor". There is also the speculator who thinks he's investing but really he is gambling. Unfortunately I believe this to be the biggest portion of everyone active in this space.

Then, there is the other type. Who are noisy and active on this forum and social media. Talk all about holding and Bitcoin adoption and what not, but actually they don't even use or buy Bitcoin. Just talk a lot on signature campaigns to get their bounty of altcoins. Want to see them? Just look at this thread lol

It may seem as if there is irony, hypocrisy and various internal contradictions with other members that appears to be gambling rather than investing and telling others to do something different from what they are doing, yet the situation of people are different.

Each of us should be attempting to tailor our bitcoin investment approach to our own circumstances, and actual view of bitcoin's anticipated price performance as compared to where it is at is ONLY one of the factors, and may well not be a big factor in terms of inabilities to really assess it in the short-term anyhow, so in that regard, the other factors become much more important.. and maybe I should just list them out in order to be more specific to my references. 

Individual considerations include but are not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Accordingly, if I have been into bitcoin for nearly 9 years, and I spent my first 1-3 years building my bitcoin position, then I have way more flexibility than a newbie because my average cost per BTC may well be below $1k, so even if the BTC price drops from $69k to $19.5k, I could be telling the newbie to be buying the whole time, even though I might be buying and selling.. depending on other considerations that i have.  I am not dumping on them merely because I might be selling when I am telling them to buy.  If the newbie has no bitcoin or very little bitcoin, but s/he has a lot of value (an investment portfolio) in other assets, then it is quite likely the best thing for them to "need" to get into bitcoin, when I am either flexible or even considering that it is o.k. for me to reallocate which might even mean that I am selling at times that would be great investment prices for anyone who is either a no coiner or a low coiner.

I think that part of the reason that in the real world, I am almost always giving similar advice (to the extent that I would concede it to be advice) to no coiners/low coiners no matter the BTC price is because I am frequently talking to no coiners/low coiners, and the advice is to get started and figure out how to get some kind of a BTC allocation, and then once they spend years establishing their BTC accumulation levels, then it may well (or at least should) become more clear how to manage that allocation and figure out if more allocation is needed, are they in a maintenance stage or have they moved into a liquidation stage... and we may see ourselves moving back and forth between these kinds of stages depending on our circumstances an maybe depending on how solidly we are able to build our BTC holdings in order to feel that we have flexibility in regards to what to do.. even though right now, it does not seem like a great time to be selling bitcoin, even if any of us might be in 20x to 100x profits, but we would still have more flexibility to decide whether or not to sell any at these prices if we have been in for a while and we have built our bitcoin stash in order to help to bolster our flexibilities in terms of potentially having a variety of options in terms of choosing which assets to spend from to cover our monthly expenses - whether they are discretionary expenses or not.

Most Bitcoin users are scared because they don't understand the charts with Bitcoin movements. When people start to panic, they choose to sell to release stress. However, they only regretted it once again when Bitcoin started to rebound. Then they will ask if the time is right to buy. After Bitcoin started rebounding and moving forward with a bull run, I saw a lot of questions like this one. But sadly, no one is considering taking shortcuts in the Bitcoin world.

If they don't start learning bitcoin movement charts and understand them, they will never sell on ATH because they are always afraid to make decisions and won't know anything.
They will be confused to determine when to buy and sell because they only follow what the people out there say.
They will also doubt their ability to learn how to trade correctly because they are afraid to start.
We should avoid this and start to learn and keep learning because that is the way to get good skills in trading.

As Ratimov already mentioned, merely because we can identify a price cycle that exists within bitcoin's history, there is no need to contemplate any need to be good at trying to figure out such cycle with such specificity in order to feel some kind of need to get good at trading upon it... except maybe just realizing that it may well not be a good idea to sell when the price goes down, and it maybe be good to buy more and/or to hold in the event that you might not feel that you have enough money to buy more. 

In any event learning trading skills would not be a pre-requisite to being good at investing in bitcoin, especially if any of us can hold through the cycles and maybe even buy more along the way, if  we have sufficiently long investment timelines, we may be in a much better position by not even attempting to trade and just buying, holding and just accumulating bitcoin through the years and figuring out sometime later down the road if we need to transition from buying and holding to selling and even living off of our longer term investment, which may involve some attempts to time the price, but if we have built enough bitcoin through the years, we might become a bit less price sensitive in terms of how we deal with our BTC holdings.

Yep 4 year cycles are still valid. We’re in the first year of a bear market, 2023 will also be bearish. Expect green shoots of recovery in 2024 as we move towards the halving. Things start to move up Q3 & Q4 of 2024 followed by epic up during 2025.

You might be right, but I would not expect that cycles are as set in stone as you are making them out to be.

[348Judah]

except maybe just realizing that it may well not be a good idea to sell when the price goes down, and it maybe be good to buy more and/or to hold in the event that you might not feel that you have enough money to buy more

Sometimes bitcoin markets ar unpredictable in such a way that when you needed to sell then the price may not be favourable enough to make any realization in profit while by then it is more advisable to buy than selling but the holder been already in need to sell can't afford buying more, just from the format some of the bitcoin holders or let me say whales adopts is to keep buying the dip, fine amd good they have the enough required asset to sum up together in other to afford buying bitcoin to hold, i do advise that making an investment on bitcoin should be a long term hold to have gain enough margin that cant resist any attempts to sell at any point in time, but eventually not everyone investing had the tenacity to hold for a very long time, instead they sell along the way and the price surges right after the action, the average holders got affected in this category and not the whales, what's now the essence of a hold that amount to nothing at the end.

[Zilon]

Bitcoin is indeed cyclical no permanent direction at all. But what i have been able to gather from the meme is taking advantage of the dip and never to buy the highs during bull run. Just like the previous ATH where numerous predictions were made about bitcoin hitting $100k which it never did.

DCA-ing is just the best tool for the current trend. Take as much profit before the next bull run. I still believe so much in quantity. The more Bitcoin gathered during this bull run the closer it is to 1BTC and the better the profit during the bull

[trendcoin]

We are quite far from the ATH level. Indeed, these levels are not suitable for selling Bitcoin. I am currently in a trading position. I have very little Bitcoin. If I had Bitcoin, I wouldn't sell it unless I saw a new ATH. I would continue to hold the Bitcoins I had. Even if the bear season lasts for a long time, even if the cryptocurrency market as a whole does not see new ATHs, I am sure that Bitcoin will set new records. Even if I bought Bitcoin more expensive than it is today, I wouldn't worry at all because human history will repeat itself and assets with limited supply will continue to increase in value. I have no doubt about it.

Yes Bitcoin is cyclical, but the solid balance of money and fiat money in human history is cyclical as well.

[JayJuanGee]

except maybe just realizing that it may well not be a good idea to sell when the price goes down, and it maybe be good to buy more and/or to hold in the event that you might not feel that you have enough money to buy more

Sometimes bitcoin markets ar unpredictable in such a way that when you needed to sell then the price may not be favourable enough to make any realization in profit while by then it is more advisable to buy than selling but the holder been already in need to sell can't afford buying more, just from the format some of the bitcoin holders or let me say whales adopts is to keep buying the dip, fine amd good they have the enough required asset to sum up together in other to afford buying bitcoin to hold, i do advise that making an investment on bitcoin should be a long term hold to have gain enough margin that cant resist any attempts to sell at any point in time, but eventually not everyone investing had the tenacity to hold for a very long time, instead they sell along the way and the price surges right after the action, the average holders got affected in this category and not the whales, what's now the essence of a hold that amount to nothing at the end.

I personally believe that it could take 10 years or longer to really be in a good place to feel that you have flexibility in your investment portfolio and to feel that you are in sufficient profits to be able to have some flexibilities in what to do - and even 10 years might not be enough - except for depending on how you are measuring your timeline and surely if you come into bitcoin, but you already have other investments, then you may well already be able to be more aggressive and even short-cut some of the timeline because you had come into the bitcoin investment with more capital.

Surely being in profits might be enough to cause some folks to feel as if they are in a position to be sufficiently profitable, but still merely being in profits might not be enough to really be prudent in terms of cashing out of something like bitcoin.

To me, it seems that you (348Judah) are describing a bigger dilemma that comes to investors who are both real early in their BTC investment, and also they might not had managed their cash well by having a sufficiently large enough emergency fund.  So of course, the earlier that any of us is in our building of an investment portfolio, we are likely going to contribute to our own desires to want to rush the process of becoming rich by investing more aggressively, and we end up finding ourselves to have had invested too much and bought too much BTC at prices that were too high, and when the BTC price drops we continue to be aggressive and at some point we run out of money so that we had invested way more money at higher prices and then if some kind of an emergency comes up, we do not enough cash to cover our emergency - even though we have a decent amount of value tied up in bitcoin but the value is tied up in such a way that our average price per BTC is quite a bit higher than the current BTC price, so if we were to sell, then we would be locking in a loss.. which surely we know is a practice that we should not follow.  We do not want to be buying high and forced to sell low because we had not sufficiently managed our money in such a way to be able to have enough money or cashflow or value in other places in which we can draw upon those other areas prior to touching any aspect of our BTC stash.

I do believe that as we get more experienced and as we continue to build up our investment portfolio (and even our cash reserves) and as we mature as an investor (and hopefully continue to learn along the way), we learn how to lessen the likelihood that we continue to get into financial pickles.  Accordingly, if we had mismanaged our cashflow and our emergency fund, hopefully we can figure out some kind of way that we do NOT make the situation worse by selling our bitcoin which ends up compounding our mistake, and if we can get through the situation without damaging ourselves too much then at that point we may well be able to put ourselves into a better (and more solid) position in the future so that we do not end up making similar mistakes.   It's not easy because sometimes even mature investors end up making mistakes that are similar to mistakes that they had made when they were earlier in their investment, and one thing that seems to happen too is that the amount at risk may well end up going up as your investment portfolio continues to grow, so if you are not careful, you might end up making mistakes that cost you way more money than your earlier mistakes - but hopefully you are putting less and less of your portfolio at risk in terms of overall percentages... even if your amounts should be growing as you continue to grow your portfolio (hopefully), too.

[slaman29]

Definitely I think you're missing at least one other type of "investor". There is also the speculator who thinks he's investing but really he is gambling. Unfortunately I believe this to be the biggest portion of everyone active in this space.

It may seem as if there is irony, hypocrisy and various internal contradictions with other members that appears to be gambling rather than investing and telling others to do something different from what they are doing, yet the situation of people are different.

Each of us should be attempting to tailor our bitcoin investment approach to our own circumstances, and actual view of bitcoin's anticipated price performance as compared to where it is at is ONLY one of the factors, and may well not be a big factor in terms of inabilities to really assess it in the short-term anyhow, so in that regard, the other factors become much more important.. and maybe I should just list them out in order to be more specific to my references. 

Individual considerations include but are not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Accordingly, if I have been into bitcoin for nearly 9 years, and I spent my first 1-3 years building my bitcoin position, then I have way more flexibility than a newbie because my average cost per BTC may well be below $1k, so even if the BTC price drops from $69k to $19.5k, I could be telling the newbie to be buying the whole time, even though I might be buying and selling.. depending on other considerations that i have.  I am not dumping on them merely because I might be selling when I am telling them to buy.  If the newbie has no bitcoin or very little bitcoin, but s/he has a lot of value (an investment portfolio) in other assets, then it is quite likely the best thing for them to "need" to get into bitcoin, when I am either flexible or even considering that it is o.k. for me to reallocate which might even mean that I am selling at times that would be great investment prices for anyone who is either a no coiner or a low coiner.

I think that part of the reason that in the real world, I am almost always giving similar advice (to the extent that I would concede it to be advice) to no coiners/low coiners no matter the BTC price is because I am frequently talking to no coiners/low coiners, and the advice is to get started and figure out how to get some kind of a BTC allocation, and then once they spend years establishing their BTC accumulation levels, then it may well (or at least should) become more clear how to manage that allocation and figure out if more allocation is needed, are they in a maintenance stage or have they moved into a liquidation stage... and we may see ourselves moving back and forth between these kinds of stages depending on our circumstances an maybe depending on how solidly we are able to build our BTC holdings in order to feel that we have flexibility in regards to what to do.. even though right now, it does not seem like a great time to be selling bitcoin, even if any of us might be in 20x to 100x profits, but we would still have more flexibility to decide whether or not to sell any at these prices if we have been in for a while and we have built our bitcoin stash in order to help to bolster our flexibilities in terms of potentially having a variety of options in terms of choosing which assets to spend from to cover our monthly expenses - whether they are discretionary expenses or not.

Thank you for taking the time to make such a comment. And yes when I read back what I said, I know I said it with some sort of malice to the guy I was responding to, which I find is something I should not be doing too much on this forum, moving toward negativity just because of conditions.

You are right that everyone does have different circumstances, and that's why the only real advice to give is to understand what your needs are, and to use Bitcoin in a way that suits your needs. And in giving true personal experiences, rather than picking up some "strategy" and commenting on it without a way to reflect from experience.

Basically, like almost anything else in life that involves financial risk

I definitely agree that for newbies we can't be telling them to buy all the time UNLESS we have also to give them perspective (and buying all the time is not same as dumping every spare money into BTC), in fact, if people really push me for advice, it's the same principles. Don't invest what you will miss. Think of it as many years of waiting and a test, to wait 5 years at least so you are not a newbie and can make up your mind better. Don't lose your day job, meaning, don't waste time trading and figuring out market.