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Honestly, they've printed so much money out of thin air that I've simply lost count. The big surge in money printing at the start of COVID was the fourth round of so called quantitative easing since 2008. I'm not sure if the ongoing money printing up until April of 2022 was just extended QE4 or if that counted as QE5. So I guess we are on the brink of either QE5 or QE6.

Anyway, let's take a look at the Fed's balance sheet:

https://i.imgur.com/ZSnSgu5.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/ZSnSgu5.jpg)

2008 - 0.8 trillion dollars.
2022 - 9 trillion dollars.

8.2 trillion dollars just created out of thin air in 14 years. To put that in to perspective, with population of ~334 million, that's $24,500 of new money for every single person in the US. That's $8.2 trillion driving up inflation, devaluing the dollar, making your savings worth less, making your money buy less, making you poorer.

Don't worry, though. They'll reverse all this printing, they say. They started at the end of 2018, and managed to take a measly $0.5 trillion off before they started printing again to astronomical new levels.
Don't worry, though. They'll reverse that too. They started a year ago, and have managed to take $0.6 trillion off it this time! ::)
But wait, let's zoom in on the last few months of the graph I shared above:

https://i.imgur.com/WRzIqZz.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/WRzIqZz.jpg)

$0.3 trillion new money in a week. It took them a year to take off $0.6 trillion, and they've undone half of that progress in a week. Guess it's back to normal proceedings of money printer goes brrrrr! Can't have the banks losing money now, can we! The banks must be protected at all costs. Fuck 99% of the population who are being made poorer and poorer on a daily basis. As long as the banks get endless bailouts!

Here's a quote I made almost 3 years ago:

This is the new normal. Money printer goes brrrrr. Fiat is a scam.

Bitcoin fixes this.

Well, I have doubts that Bitcoin could fix this. More than 90% of the people in the USA would most likely never buy/adopt Bitcoin. They will keep running in the fiat rat race, even though they know that the end is going to be ugly. The US (and the global) fiat financial system has reached the point of no return, after which they simply can't stop the money printing machines. Stopping the printing machines would lead to a global depression and the collapse of the entire financial system. At the same time, it's obvious that the continuation of money printing will lead to more inflation, debts, devaluation and social inequality. Bitcoin could serve as a safe heaven, but the majority of the people would prefer to lose their fiat wealth, rather than investing in BTC.

It's really easy to print new money, but when they're want to reduce the existing fiat circulation, it's really hard since it's already affect the whole economy about the current product price.

Only 3 banks were collapsed on United States and the FED have add $0.3 trillions, there's a study where they find 186 banks have potential risk going to bankrupt too [1] if we use the previous calculation, the FED will print more $18.6 trillions, this is 2 times more than the current money printing ::)

---

[1] https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/will-more-banks-collapse-silicon-valley

Some would say "nothing new in the West", except perhaps that this time all that money will be used to save the banks in order to prevent a repeat of the crisis that arose after 2008. As much as some are surprised that the US government stood behind all deposits in all banks as a guarantee, I wonder if they had any other choice at all? Of course, they could act selectively or not act at all, but that would certainly cause a domino effect and the collapse of dozens of US banks in the first wave, and then the spillover of the crisis to other markets.

The situation in the EU is currently stable (at least that's what they say), but the Swiss case is a clear example that even the best in business can mess up. Regardless of all the guarantees, no one should feel safe keeping their money in the bank, but most people simply don't know any better than that. Bitcoin is an alternative, but most authorities will do everything to make it an alternative for a very small number of people.

I don't think it's easy for people to adopt BTC when they get the money printed first, and then the government gives them assurance that their loans (whether student loans, home loans, etc.) will be completely waived/written off. The government and FED are collectively trying their best to keep the people of USA diverted (here: engaged in all this shit) and be the slave of their fiat currency as long as they can, so that other assets don't drive them rich and the government keep ruling them for a very long time. BTC is an option but not really, till the people of USA understand its current value and how it could save them from the so-called banks that have their hard-earned money but will deny to give that back to them just because of going bankrupt. How many bailouts do you think can save the upcoming banking system layoff?

90% is really huge; I would have said 70–85%. About 20% of the adult citizens of the U.S. have already adopted the technology, holding little pieces of the total in circulation. They might not completely run to Bitcoin; they just want to be on both sides. It's not easy to leave one's currency and fully depend on Bitcoin. It's not as if we don't know the truth sometimes, but we allow ignorance to blindfold us.

https://i.imgur.com/oUdhO7Z.jpg
I came across this image yesterday. It's funny, but it's also becoming true. 

Never is strong word. Even after the Fed print another $10 trillion, $50 trillion, $100 trillion? What about when inflation hits 30%, 50%, 100%+? What about a loaf of bread costs $50? This is what is happening in countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey. The US is not immune to such things, especially when the Fed continues to print money with abandon. Everyone will reach a breaking point eventually when they lose faith in fiat.

FDIC insurance has $128 billion in assets. The deposits less than $250,000 that they insure total $23.7 trillion. This means that 99.5% of deposits are uncovered. What happens when a couple more banks go under and the FDIC can't cover them? You guessed it! Money printer goes brrrrr!

Next on the list of banks needing a bailout:

https://preview.redd.it/i9ar0v3uc2pa1.jpg?width=1120&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=64c3c83d3ea1ba07616b42dcfaac734c7171f0a0

I wonder what would happen if the Republicans in the house of representatives refuse to increase the debt ceiling this summer.
I have read that people within the Biden administration could be considering to seriously implement the 1 Trillion dollar plan to issue "debit" with the help of the Federal Reserve and go around the approval of the chamber.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin

It seems to me that every year that passes, it is becoming more and more difficult for the USA government and the people of that wonderful country to go back to their aim of 2% inflationary increase per year. And I do not think they would be able to maintain several years in a row with negative inflation to "fix" that has happened these last 3 years.  :(

I would recommend everyone check out a really good documentary (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpMLAQbSYAw) just put up on Youtube a few days ago--it's all about the Fed, all of this stimulus shit and endless money printing, and I seriously hope as many people see it as possible.

The feeling I get when I venture out into the world is that things like the inflation spike and supply chain shortages are harbingers of really, really fucking bad things to come, specifically all the consequences of the US's fiscal policy since 2009 or so.  It might have taken time for the machinery to break down, but it's becoming harder to believe that it's not ready to crack apart completely.

Not for nothing, but I'm stocking up on non-perishables with any spare money I've got.  Cat food, man.

Inflation is already taking its toll, adding to the excessive printing of dollars, which even makes it worse because the dollar value is also reduced due to the aggregate of printed money.

So possibly in the next 14 years, the printer will go more blah and people will become poorer, adding to inflation, so that $10,000 cannot even settle rent. oops 😬
 
I have a question on this though, the printed volume of dollar, was it to keep up with the population or to fight inflammation inflation there by creating more devaluation on the purchasing power of money? Because between last year and now, the population is 334 million (like you mentioned), but I looked back to 2008, and the population was just 304.1 million, which is only an increase of 8.95%. In just 14 years, the printed money has increased by 1,025% while the population has increased by only about 9%.
 

I doubt that, How can you tell?


How do you mean?



When the system is collapsed, what is the next option?


Which will push many to seek solution, and if Bitcoin is who what  they are convinced to the be their safe heaven, do you think they will not go for it?

 
Who rejects a safe heaven mahn?

 
I still doubt this, why? (rarely can you see who would want to throw away their wealth were as they have a better solution.

There are policies supposed to control this money printing, but if they're not working, what do you think will happen? I cannot see the future, though, but if this gets to a point where dollar value is reduced to almost nothing, then  many citizens, if not up to 90% will go into Bitcoin because that could be the solution then. Already, what's happening now with the printing machine is just a preamble of what will happen in the next 14 years, unless that these printed money are used to save the bank, to avoid the financial crises of 2008.

In my opinion, Bitcoin will fix it, in the sense that even if not all US citizens, but about 90%, will adopt Bitcoin, unless a solution is provided to the money printing and also if some of the 9 billion printed dollars are reversed.

Yep.

I'd say let them! If that much banks are in such a bad shape, it looks to me as if they've gotten far too comfortable. Banks don't deserve their special position: any other company would go bankrupt instead of getting a bail out.

Considering the number of banks that are in a bad shape, I'd even say there should be a minimum of 1 bank per month going bankrupt, just to cleanse the system a bit and remind them there can be consequences.

There are many theories as to why this is happening...

The most popular theory is that the global causes of the 2008 crisis have not been eliminated.  As a result, the inefficiency of the global economic system only increases over time. 

At the same time, our world is arranged in such a way that questions of power are always more important than questions of the economy.  If those in power have a real threat of losing power, they will not hesitate to sacrifice the economy and the well-being of the people. 

An increase in the money supply and government bailouts of commercial banks is not a cure for the economy, but rather a powerful drug (heroin) that puts it into a state of excitement that some observers mistake for recovery. 

However, the economy, most likely, is in principle unable to develop in the conditions of modern financial, organizational and legal social institutions. 

This is a global crisis of the modern social order.

I'd say an economic crash is long overdue, and the longer it takes, the worse it's going to get. You can't just make economic problems go away with "brrrr", it only postpones them (while they build up in size).

Yesterday I was reading a book by the famous futurist Alvin Toffler.  He wrote that at present there are two social societies in parallel.  

The first is the industrial society (which is already gradually disappearing from the historical stage), and the second is the information society (in the process of emerging).  So we are all going through a very difficult time right now.  

The industrial society is based on centralized "factories" where goods are created (large corporations), obedient people are created (schools), money is created (banks), ideology is created (television), etc.

The information society is based on other components - individualism, new technologies, a variety of scenarios, horizontal connections and decentralization. 

The clash of the old and the new world leads to wars, economic crises, psychological breakdowns of people (in all countries) and general instability.  

And this transitional period can last quite a long time.

The peculiarity of the banking sector is that it is highly dependent on the trust of customers. Therefore, all public talking heads will convince the general public to the last that everything is fine (three days before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, its shares were in the status of recommended for purchase).

Another interesting feature of the current banking crisis in the US (unlike Europe and the previous crisis in 2008) is that the management of troubled banks, in principle, did not commit blunders or adventurous machinations. The devastating factor was the Fed's policy of aggressively raising rates in the fight against inflation.

There is always a simple solution for the government because they have mechanisms that can manage almost any situation. Printing money is the only thing that saves them at the moment, and they will do it regardless of what the implications are for ordinary people. I read that many, including Powell himself, knew what was happening in SVB even 1 year ago, but they did not do anything, as if it was more convenient for them to have what is happening today.

I don't want to get into any conspiracy theories, but I think that in high politics and business, nothing happens by chance. In that case, we have to ask ourselves what is the ultimate goal of everything that has been happening in the last 4-5 years?

That's what I have seen on a news recently that's why the VCs from Israel did withdraw thier money a week before the collapse.
The FED will pivot so they say when they sense something is broken and well, everything seems to be broken already.

Powell must have had the worse years of his life since e the time they started this QE. Reducing inflation is not an easy task when the government had already printed Trillions for people to lie down and get stimi.

This is just the bitter truth, sir. I have imagined the world having a comfortable and satisfied financial system with just 1 or 2 banks in every country and every citizen barely paying attention to them because the use of Bitcoin is so viable and everyone is just clamoring for its adoption and less people are paying attention to banks. But I know that Practically, this is not going to be possible any time soon or later because a whole lot of people depend on banks; even the government, wanting to always be in control of almost everything, depends on banks. Some times I just imagined that if everyone in this forum thinks alike, just like "Bitcoin can fix all that", then everyone will just be bent on using Bitcoin as a legal tender. Well, it's just my opinion.

Is it fair to say it's all out of thin air over 14 years between 2008 and 2022? Some of it surely is, but the economy is also growing because huge new businesses appear, creating new jobs, new demand and offer, so since the charts are for the total assets, I think at least some of that printing has something reasonable justifying it. I agree that the US is playing with fire and has been doing so for a while, but sometimes it's hard to make a better choice than printing when you really need funds to fix something now and deal with the consequences later. That being said, banks should not be bailed out when they fail.
I'm honestly not sure that Bitcoin as a sole legal tender instead of something like the USD would have a better overall effect on the well-being of the population when facing global challenges like the pandemic.

Oh yeah right, the FED things. They are the ones who are going to put America in jeopardy. I am really not obliged to say this because there are always certain limits to accounting and one can never settle the balance sheet if it has gone too far. With the money getting printed out of thin air, they are going one step closer to getting a jobless America and historical moments such as collapsed developed nation. Don't take it in a fun way but there are still many people who think that America is really on the right track and they are managing the world's most important reserves to stabilize. That is itself a joke on them.

In those 14 years, the pandemic 2 years were most crucial for the FED's when they started giving away COVID stimulus packages. From what reserves the money came in no one knows til the date. Where is the accounting sheet for all that money? Was it tax money or was it just printed or did the government sell any assets for that purpose?

Nothing, no data. If there is any then I am sure its cover up as usual.

I'm sure that in 20 7 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520

 :o :o :o

https://www.withum.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/lloyd-300x300-1.jpg

 ;D

3 years (since COVID).

The endgame has 4 characters: it starts with C and ends with C. ;)

I think this is just getting at a different level these days. I mean yeah we used to have the same thing as well and I understood the money printing stuff, it made sense and I understand it, it wasn't really that weird. These days when you look at it over half of the money ever printed by the USA has been printed in the last 15-20 years, over half, that means for 200+ years they printed as much as they printed in the last 15 years.

I always understood "a bit" but this is getting insane levels, like what's next printing another 10 trillion in the next 10 years? That can't go on, it is not sustainable and it would create a huge chaos in the world if they keep it up.

The size of the fed's balance sheet isn't really a concern in terms of consumer markets. Whatever inflation is printed by the fed is usually contained inside of banks, financial institutions and the government. It remains contained inside of bank and state lending, and doesn't trickle down to retail markets. Where it might drive the cost of priced goods in an uptrend.

The term bubble hasn't ben used by the media since they claimed "bitcoin is a bubble" in years past. That's a key angle which is lurking something like an elephant in the room.

A bubble is the biggest danger associated with the fed expanding its balance sheet as it implies banks and large financial institutions are taking bigger risks with their depositors money. Which are increasingly leading to them being bailed out of their bad investment practices. Given a perfect storm of worst case scenarios, a sufficiently large debt bubble could trigger another 2008 financial crisis.

The fed lending to banks is ok. Its only a problem if banks cannot payback their debt. Or debt bubble grows large enough to where banks can no longer be bailed out.

I wish bitcoin could fix this type of problem. Technology is always seeking to engineer and design away problems caused by the questionable choices of people. Bitcoin was built to decentralize finance to protect the wealth of consumers from being solely reliant upon government and banks. Not so much to prevent banks and financial institutions from taking large risks which could threaten the stability of the global economy. We need another coin for that.

I am quite happy about this as a non-american. Let them do the mistakes and may we be profit from this. So far we haven't, it hasn't gone down that road just yet, but if they keep being mismanaged like this all the time, there will be a time when we will catch up, and when that happens we will get cheaper stuff than right now. Its not good for the world of course, most nations have dollar reserves and all, the value of that would drop and I understand how it could ruin the financial markets, but at the end of the day dollar being much stronger would hurt our daily lives as well, it already did, so I rather watch them have a bit of trouble time to time.

They wont be doing QE while raising interest rates surely.   The whole thing is a mess for sure but that would be quite an obvious mistake, conflicting with themselves.  Its already the case that the FED while trying to tighten policy ends up running opposite to government with loose fiscal budgeting.  Sensible as they try to be unfortunately it doesnt work, it explains why humans should not try to manipulate free markets and illustrates how we undermine ourselves also just plain corruption.  People will always take advantage, 2008 was in part because of the backstop given to mortgages which just became exploited and ironic negative introducing greater harm then less done.

Even if the FED does nothing, it will unravel we will have the consequences of prior QE and the inability to control those effects for decades after.  Mostly that means inflation but also excessive volatility, clearly we need alternatives and markets will search and find means to stabilize themselves from the ongoing harm of QE.

maybe then all the illegal immigrants that keep flowing across the boarder in texas will want to go back home but i doubt it. but it's a serious problem that i think is causing inflation because they are printing more money to support many of these people. some of them are on welfare some are displacing americans from jobs and that's how it is.  

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/13/monthly-encounters-with-migrants-at-u-s-mexico-border-remain-near-record-highs/

welfare means taxpayers are paying for them. bailing them out. but money doesn't come from nowhere, sometimes you just have to print more of it...biden doesn't care though because they want more of these people here so they will keep them in office and vote for them  :o

if the government is willing to let tens of thousands of illegal immigrants come into the country and take up resources then I don't know what to say. it just means that NOTHING is off limits anymore. forget about your retirement and social security thanks to these people coming in and sucking everything dry...

Care to tell us where you are so lucky to be from? Monetary policy around the world is generally like that of the USA or even worse, but maybe there is some country that doesn't use the fiat ponzi system and I haven't heard about it.


The problem with the money created is that it is not distributed equitably. The Cantillion effect  (https://www.swfinstitute.org/news/89070/what-is-the-cantillon-effect-and-why-its-even-more-important-now)has been known for a long time:


In the end, the worker who is struggling to make ends meet is worse off, and people who own financial assets find it easier to get even richer by getting cheap finance.


They cannot. The current system creates money as debt which, when it is created, also creates interest to be paid. But the money to pay the interest does not exist and the only way to keep everything from collapsing is to keep creating more money by creating more debt, which creates more interest to be paid.


In theory yes, but so does gold and it has not been used for a long time. I think politicians will do anything rather than give in. What I find interesting is that just as central banks have gold reserves as a back-up, despite the fact that there has been no convertibility between currency and gold for some time, the BIS also recently announced that cryptocurrencies can be used as reserves:

BIS Allows Banks to Hold 2% Of Their Reserves in Cryptocurrencies (https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647)

I imagine that when this is implemented, bitcoin will be the strongest reserve cryptocurrency.

Economic growth does not show up on the Fed's balance sheet. The balance sheet was essentially static between 2002 and 2007, despite all those years having good economic growth, with 2004 being as high as 4%. Everything on the balance sheet represents new money being printed by the Fed.

That's party of the problem. Politicians don't want to make the hard decisions now, because it will cost them elections. Better to make the easy decisions and kick the can down the road endlessly. That's why we are constantly printing money, why our deficit is constantly increasing, and why we have to constantly increase the debt ceiling. The debt is over $30 trillion and continuing to increase quickly. We are having to borrow more just to keep up with interest payments. How high can it get before the whole thing collapses? And all the while, the average person just gets poorer and poorer.

The amount spent on illegal immigrants is absolutely dwarfed by the amount we spend on the military or our broken healthcare system. We spend 18% of GDP on healthcare - most of Europe spends around 11-12%.

i read that 116,000 illegals came across the border in just 2021. so just for them, lets say each one of them runs up 5000 in medical bills and gets 10,000 welfare from the government. You know how much money that is? $1,740,000,000.

Now the thing is, that's happening every year. think of adding on another $1.7 billion in expenses for taxpayers every year. 2022,2023, it's an exponential thing.At some point that could become as large as the military budget.

but you're definitely right that military budget here in the usa is way out of control and has been for decades. that's one of the things that make this country problematic. the healthcare system is broken because hospitals can charge anything they want because they bill insurance companies not individuals. individuals get bankrupted and spit out...

Perhaps if developed countries such as the USA were not plundering the raw materials and other resources of poor countries, people would not need to emigrate. Do you think people emigrate for the sake of it?

But I don't want to go off-topic in this thread about QE and the monetary system. In the end, what the FED and other central banks do is a flight forward, like the one who is drowned by loans and what he does is to ask for another loan to refinance the previous ones. It is a temporary solution to a permanent problem that will eventually explode.

Which is my point exactly. $1.7 billion is nothing. We spend $800 billion a year just on our military. That's 0.2%. The completely unnecessary extra 6-7% of GDP we spend over and above European countries because of our moronic healthcare system equates to about $1.4 trillion.

So the average spending on healthcare in developed nations by their government is around $6,000 per person. For us, it's almost $13,000. As I said above, our government spends around 6-7% more of our GDP on healthcare than similarly developed European countries. But on top of that, we also pay huge insurance premiums and out of pocket expenses which most European countries don't have. And, for that huge amount of extra government spending, employer spending, insurance spending, out of pocket expenses, people going bankrupt, etc., the care we get is constantly rated as one of the worst in the developed world.

But God forbid we actually want to get better care for less money by cutting out all the predatory insurance companies and middlemen! That would be sOcIaLiSm!

No, far better to hand huge amounts of money completely unnecessarily directly in to the pockets of insurance company CEOs and the like. They are the ones buying out our politicians after all. And why not? The government can always just print more! Brrrrr!

maybe if the army stopped paying for peoples' college educations (and suvs and houses), they could make a small dent in this huge military spending budget. so i guess these soldiers are worse than illegal immigrants in that respect, they are costing us more than them!

$13,000 for a band-aid you mean?

in a civilized society everyone should be entitled to free healthcare but we're far from that.

imagine if bitcoin was like that. satoshi could just turn on the printer and mint more bitcoin whenever he wanted. ;D who would agree to that?


 

Good lucking finding soldiers then...

The biggest problem is this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/09/world/middleeast/afghanistan-war-cost.html

2 trillion bucks down the drain.

It's quite simple actually: USA should stop playing world police. There you go, 2 trillion $ of taxpayer money saved! Who would've thought, right?

And of course with Bitcoin it would be nearly impossible to print so much money to fund wars (well, unless you're Satoshi and you want to donate your 1m BTC stash).

Correct. That's why everyone needs to buy even a small amount of BTC.

Well, there is a bit more increase just like nothing happened. To think that fed saw the banks bankrupting after the increases in the interest rate and decided to increase it anyway is a big deal.

Now this is going to end up with two ways, either it is going to keep bankrupting banks anyway and it will keep on going bad and then printing will continue to save them and the people who have money in those banks, or the banks won't be bankrupting anymore and it was just those banks, and this harsh increases will make sure they collect more money and the inflation will drop to a very good levels. Let's see which one happens but I am not hopeful about the second one.

soldiers to do what? run around on a battlefield sticking people with a spear on the end of their heavy gun?

i refuse to pay the new york times just so i can read that story.

apparently it was not just one lump sum expenditure in a single year. aka stimulus program where they handed out free money and printed a crapload of it for that purpose.

there's some situations we shouldn't stick our nose into but then others where you don't have a choice...but how many soldiers does it really take to kill one man?

That's the way it was designed. College and other tuition fees have been artificially inflated to extraordinary levels so for many people this is their only option if they want to go to college at all.

Just imagine if someone shilled an altcoin with the properties of USD today:

• Several trillion in circulation, but we don't actually know how much
• Unlimited supply
• Constantly printed at will, but new coins are exclusively given to the top 0.1% of holders
• Lost >99% of its value since launch
• Can be seized out of your accounts at any time

Somehow that's even worse than your average shitcoin scam!

Satoshi returning and moving any of their stash does not equate to new bitcoin being printed, though. We will never breach the limit of 21 million.

Bingo. This is normal now. The latest balance sheet shows they've printed another $100 billion since I made this thread a few days ago.

Here's a link without the paywall: https://archive.ph/EoHSv

The only way to pay interest on all debts is by creating more and more money.

Yup. Just the interest payments on our debt cost us half a trillion dollars a year. And since debt is increasing, interest payments will increase too. It won't be long before interest payments become one of the largest outgoings of the government's budget. And what happens then? When we pay more on interest than we do on military or healthcare? How much money do we have to print then? How worthless does the dollar become? Or do we just renege on our national debts and let the whole thing collapse?

Either way, the outlook for fiat is bleak.

"Donating his stash" means "printing more BTC" to you?

The debt/fiat system is a huge Ponzi pyramid.

What we witness right now is the next episode of the Great Reset series.

They will try to collapse every commercial bank out there and promote further centralization with the CBDC (totally controlled by the central bank).

Absolutely not, which is the point I am making.

When you said "unless you're Satoshi..." I took that in reference to it being impossible to print any more bitcoin. Reading the line that I quoted from you again, perhaps your intended meaning was that bitcoin could not be used to fund wars, unless Satoshi donated their stash? I don't strictly agree with that either, though. Bitcoin can be used to fund anything, if it is owned in sufficient quantities by the "right" people. I think it is fairly likely that a number of governments around the world are holding not insignificant amounts of bitcoin.

I could also imagine a theoretical scenario where TSMC (the biggest and most advanced microchip manufacturer) devoted 100% of their wafer production to manufacture an obscene amount of BTC ASICs.

That way they could capture a huge share of the BTC hashrate (and maybe even perform a 51% attack if they're malicious enough).

Will they do it? Most likely not. They would have to abandon their other customers (Apple, nVidia, AMD etc.) and the global economy (totally dependent on microchips) would collapse. That will happen when China invades Taiwan either way, but that's another discussion. ;D

So yeah, there are potential ways to fund wars with BTC, but it would be extremely difficult and counterproductive. Just like it was possible to fund wars with gold, but it's very hard to extract huge amounts of gold.

With fiat USD it's easy-peasy. And yet, you see Americans on this board being "OK" with the fact US taxpayers paid 2 trillion over 20 years to fund a failed war in Afghanistan.

Let's not just blame the FED/US government. Most citizens are pretty dumb too. An enlightened minority cannot go against the majority. At least not in democracy.

If you say so... you better read some history:

https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-why-rome-fell


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

Just don't say nobody warned you when the US empire falls...

In my opinion, TSMC has its own business mission, which is to produce the highest quality chips. 

TSMC is a unique company, because a large number of companies produce chips for modern electronics (for example, Samsung), but uncompromising quality is precisely the products of the Taiwanese company TSMC! 

Of course, such a company will not expand into the ASIC market and carry out 51 percent attacks. 

In general, if we analyze the evolution of Bitcoin, we can conclude that the first cryptocurrency is being introduced into our daily lives very slowly, using every opportunity to take a better position.  For example, today I read that the US government is one of the biggest bitcoin whales due to the large amount of confiscated bitcoins.  Therefore, after some time, Washington officials may come to the conclusion that it is more profitable for them to introduce bitcoin into the US financial system, rather than ban it. 

In my opinion, when Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he considered this process as the first stage of a new technical and financial evolution (and his idea was completely successful).

That's why I said it's a theoretical scenario.

There's a higher chance of BTC reaching 1m USD by June, rather than TSMC devoting their entire production for ASIC chips.

Regarding adoption (Deutsche Bank woes):

https://finbold.com/over-1200-german-banks-can-now-offer-bitcoin-trading-to-their-retail-customers/

the roman empire didn't have bin laden to deal with. if someone brings terrorism to your country home soil then you have to go get them on theirs. that's just a given. now if it's some conflict like vietnam from what i've heard we had no business being there. so i'll go with that...


the chances of btc reaching 1m by june is really negligible. zero actually. and i would bet any amount of money that it won't happen. they just need to give me reasonable odds like 5 to 1. i'll go get loans so i can bet the maximum too. :o

And risk collapsing their entire company if the community then decides to fork to an ASIC-resistant mining algorithm, as many other coins have done in the past.

It is in the banks' and the politicians' best interests to keep the population uneducated. Insert here that quote form Henry Ford about there being a revolution tomorrow if people actually understood the banking system.

The US was in the Middle East long before 9/11.

It's low, but it's not zero. The US defaulting on its debt could lead to very rapid devaluing of the dollar.

i don't see how that could happen though. who does the usa owe money to and who is keeping track of that? in secret the government could just print more money anyway and pay off any bills...since they own the money printing machines.

Some altcoins do that (Monero for example), but BTC is very averse to hard forks.

Agreed.

I don't know why some Americans sound like ancient Romans:


I get it, nobody wants the US economy to collapse and become poor overnight, but nothing lasts forever.

That's why we have Bitcoin, right? It's our lifeboat.

Sorry, but you sound even more clueless the more you post.

Do you know what M1/M2/M3 are?

Nobody can print money in secret. If it was that simple, everyone would do it.

I'm sorry, but there's no easy way out. US will pay for its mistakes, just like the ancient Rome did. Nobody is infallible, nobody is a God to fix this mess with a magic wand.

those are just imaginary things that get published every so often. what's really going on out there, no one really knows or isn't saying.

nobody except uncle sam. they don't care if you know or not. but probably prefer you don't. but it's definitely happening. the difference is if you try and do it using your own equipment then you'll get thrown in jail...

keep repeating that. maybe that will make it come true. :o

The Treasury keeps track of it, and of course the people who own the debt.

About 70% of the debt is held domestically, by things like mutual funds, pension funds, insurance funds, and a variety of private individuals.
About 30% of the debt is foreign, with the largest holders being Japan and China.

When we talk about printing money, they aren't actually printing physical cash. The Fed mainly creates new money by trading Treasury securities. This isn't something that can be done in secret.

And it doesn't bother you that the foundation of entire economy is shrouded in mystery and impossible to fully account for?

So what do you think will happen? The US national debt will continue to increase unchecked until eventually we are paying our entire GDP just in interest payments. What then? You think investors and institutions are going to continue to lend us money when it's abundantly clear we will never pay them back? What do you think happens when we default on trillions and trillions of dollars of debt and can't fund any government spending?

Makes you glad we have Bitcoin around for the last 13 years, now doesn't it?  ;D

It's called Modern Monetary Theory. The idea is that if some superpower government prints as much money as they like, they can ignore the macroeconomic effects of putting a drastic amount of money in circulation, as long as they are endlessly spending as they are endlessly printing money.

If they don't spend, *then* they are in big trouble. Because the prices of everything will skyrocket.

But eventually, governments who keep doing this will run out of resources to buy, especially those who print successively larger and larger batches of money at once.

It is also called the Magic Money Tree. It's amazing when adults in jackets and ties, on whose decisions the lives of hundreds of millions of people depend, live and act on the assumption that money does not need to be earned, it can simply be spent recklessly, because it just appears out of nowhere.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/123mi9k/what_happens_when_your_debt_is_the_worlds_reserve/

I've always simplified this for myself,. especially when I was younger and did not fully understand how the money works, but it comes down to a few simple points.
Make money that everybody uses and other countries value as much as their local currencies, make sure they do what you do and you eventually end up with almost unlimited possibilities.
Say you want to buy something big, like a new weapon from another country or very expensive technology. You just print some money and give it to them, or better, you promise them money and hope they don't need it right now. They'll think they have money and be happy. You'll have the product without spending anything. What would you want more?
When someone finally calls your bluff and demand money, you'll either print it, or borrow from someone else, who think you're still wealthy and trusted.
If you run out of option, you can always print enough money or send enough soldiers to destabilize another small economy, like the US tried to do in Vietnam, Cuba, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan, and most recently in Ukraine. It's always a good way to turn heads away from your internal problems by inciting a conflict somewhere else.
 

This strategy can work well in the short term (by historical standards) and in a unipolar world, where at the top there is one hegemon with exclusive rights, and everyone else is in a subordinate vassal position. I think we are right now witnessing the agony and collapse of the Jamaican monetary system and the decline of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Beautiful.

well, i heard that even if you have fdic insurance it could take a long time to get reimbursed meanwhile you're about to run out of food and get kicked out for not paying rent. so in reality, you could end up in a bad situation anyway by trusting uncle sam even if he was not in debt.
i don't get how one country "owes" another country money.


but they are printing money and there's no way you can know how much exactly. no one can. maybe on weekends or holidays they go in and print a couple billion and give it to whoever. you wouldn't know.

so then we agree that the printing presses can't be audited about how much money is coming off them?

the government will lower the interest rates to 0 then. and if that's not enough they'll work out a repayment plan aka restructuring of debt. they might even file for bankruptcy protection so they can start the slate clean again. i'm sure there's some way they can get out of their problem. don't you?

no one needs to lend the us government money because they create the money in the first place. so they can create it instead of borrowing it. so people that lend the us government money don't make much sense to me. they don't need your money. they can print as much of it as they want.

well, fighter jets are always going to be a top priority. whether manned or not, they'll keep getting developed and purchased by the armed forces. so there you go.  :o

FDIC insurance is a somewhat different issue, but as I pointed out in an earlier post in this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5445772.msg61951908#msg61951908), the FDIC only has enough assets to cover about 0.5% of what they claim to insure. If a big enough bank collapses, either FDIC's assets will run out or the government will just have to print even more to cover all the losses.

As I explained above. They are buying bonds and other securities from the Treasury.

They print securities which are traded on the open market for money.

There are more ways to create money than the Fed printing it. Every time any bank anywhere hands out a loan or a line or credit to anyone, that's brand new money entering circulation.

Securities are sold at fixed rates for 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, and so on. Changing the interest rate today will only affect the interest on new debt issued from that change.

File with whom? Themselves?

Yes. It's called shutting down the vast majority of government spending. If we have no money to spend and no one will lend us any more, then we don't have any other choice.

Again, they are creating securities which must be bought. And even if you think endless printing of raw cash is the solution to this, just look at places like Zimbabwe or Venezuela where it costs $100 trillion to buy a loaf of bread.

What is more surprising is that various other goverments also believe they can print money out of thin air and everything will be find, copying the US. And I'm not talking about the infamous hyperinflation historical events - no, these are other first world countries with economists who actually believe its a good idea! (Even Peter Schiff for the record hates this abomination of an idea).

OP, no, the Federal Reserve cannot risk another round of Quantitative Easing while inflation is high. That's the difference between 2008 and 2023. During 2008, the Federal Reserve had some elbow-room to expand their balance sheet, and print more money. They currently don't have it. What Jerome Powell should actually be doing is, to be more aggressive in hiking rates, and to raise it more than the rate of inflation and guide it down. It will cause a recession, and the recession is what will lower demand, then therefore also lower inflation. But if Jerome Powell doesn't control inflation and lower it, inflation will cause the recession while inflation itself remains high. It will be Stagflation = Recession + High Inflation, a harder economic situation.

so the national debt is somewhere around 32 trillion dollars. nobody really knows what that means or if it means anything at all. you could add a couple zeros to that and it probably has no affect. it's just an abstract number unless it's causing real world consequences. it's not something we need to pay back it's just a number. apparently.  :o

This type of American arrogance is going to bring us down (the entire Western empire).

Ancient Rome was that arrogant right before it fell.

Watch this video if you're open-minded:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

that's how the national debt is looked at. i didn't make that up. normal consumers have a debt limit. not the us government. that's just how it is and everyone understands that. including you.

i'll check it out but the us government can only fail if its military fails. which is not likely to happen.  :o

With this kind of "leadership" (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c3/Rachel_Levine_Karine_Jean-Pierre_2022.jpg/449px-Rachel_Levine_Karine_Jean-Pierre_2022.jpg) (Biden + woke folks)? :D

And 2 trillion USD wasted in Afghanistan already? :o

Sorry, but the US army (USD backing = Proof of War) doesn't seem to be in shape anymore... the final episode will be played in Taiwan vs China (2026, next BTC bear market). ;)

Of course it would. Nobody is going to lend us money when it is clear they will never be repaid.

The military will only survive as long as we can pay for it. If we don't raise the debt limit, or no one will lend to us, or we devalue the dollar by printing trillions more, then the government can't keep spending, and the military budget gets slashed by billions.

why lend to the us government in the first place? why would anyone do that? that just causes inflation because the government has to print more money so they can repay them. so people like that are actually hurting the economy.


you don't have a choice. you HAVE to pay for it if you're a us citizen that pays taxes.

do we really need 4 different armed forces? maybe one is enough. so maybe trimming the fat would be a good thing. what you don't want is the world to adopt some other currency besides the dollar to measure the price of oil in. some expert was saying how if that happens then the dollar is over and done with.  


biden is not to be taken seriously. he won't be coming back for a second term i guess. but his cabinet sure has come up with some bad policies to try and attack peoples' freedoms. there's a new one out there that might try and make it illegal for people in usa to use a vpn. google the RESTRICT ACT  :o

Because the entities lending us money do not care about our economy. They only care about making profit for themselves.

I didn't mean us as in individuals, but us as in our government.

It's already happening. Big economies like India, China, Russia, are already in talks to ditch the dollar.

Yeap, they even plan to introduce a commodity-based currency (kinda like IMF's SDR basket currency).

Regular people (middle class) should ditch USD (and EUR etc.) before the total collapse... The Great -Currency- Reset (aka CBDC introduction) is coming soon!

Not accurate for several reasons.
1) You are assuming that the banks hold $0 when they go under so they FDIC has to cover everything. Most of the time the banks have MOST but not ALL of the money.

2) Even now with Signature and others that were closed, the other banks are taking over the FDIC did cover some but the new banks have enough to cover the rest. That is the point.

3) The FDIC also gets the profitable debt that they can then resell if needed.

AND also keep in mind, it's also a little like care insurance. You car is worth $30000. You hit a tree. It's going to cost $15000 to fix it. The insurance company totals and takes your car and cuts you a check for $30000 minus you deductible and then takes you wrecked car. And then proceeds to part it out to scrap yards and such for $20000.
They actually come out with more money then if they fixed your car.

This is also happening here. The banks WERE profitable. They just, at the moment had a lot of issues. There are plenty of people wiling to buy the scrap parts of the banks because they do have a lot of value.

-Dave

so if that's the case why feel sorry for them if the dollar goes to 0?

well europe tried doing that with the "euro" i don't think it really had any affect on the us dollar. but we'll see  :o

I don't think I made that assumption. Even if banks can cover 95% of deposits (which is a very generous estimate), FDIC insurance is still insufficient to cover the remainder. And often the money that the banks do have is prioritized for large corporations and entities, while average users (the exact ones who are holding amounts covered by the FDIC threshold) are the last in line to receive anything.

I don't. I care about the fact that all my family and friends who don't own bitcoin will lose everything if the dollar goes to zero.

European countries did not tend to trade in USD prior to the euro. They generally traded in their own currencies, British pounds, or Deutsche Marks. Countries like India, China, and Russia have used the dollar for international trade for decades. It looks like that will soon end.

Picking on Signature the FDIC estimates it will cost them (FDIC) about $2.5 billion. That's a middle of the road number. If everything goes wrong it could cost them up to $5 billion. If everything goes perfectly they can actually come out ahead (not going to happen but the potential is there). Remember, they are selling off chunks of the bank. Some people my overbid on some things because they see a larger value then Signature did.

At the moment I really am more concerned with the smaller banks that most of us don't even know about that don't have any form of insurance. Remember, FDIC is not mandatory. And there are a lot of small banks in small town USA that are going to be in deep trouble soon. Too many people are over extended. And these were the places that loaned them money.

-Dave

As much as I wanna be optimistic, the thing is that even despite the fact that US is one of the frontiers of bitcoin and are one of the biggest users of bitcoin by trade volume, I still don't believe the average American will be so accepting of using bitcoin for daily use. It took them a while to shut the fuck up about the mask situation, imagine how rowdy these people will become when the topic of using another form of currency besides the dollar comes into play. If the US government doesn't change its ways on how it manages its money, the economic crash we've all been expecting and fearing about will inevitably happen and it will take everyone with it. That's going to be for sure.

if the dollar goes to zero, that would pretty much mean no one has a job. who wants to work for $30 per hour when a loaf of bread costs $1000? owning bitcoin won't change any of that.

As it probably should. The usa has bullied the rest of the world for too long.

You don't know what black markets are, do you?

Even in Weimar Republic, goods didn't stop existing. They just shifted to... black markets. Same for USSR.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

Prediction: Instagram/TikTok/OnlyFans thots will be glad to offer (real-life) sex services for the price of a... sandwich (hmmm, let's say 500 sats ;)). ;D

Of course owning bitcoin will change that.

Take any country which has recently experienced rampant hyperinflation - Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, etc. It costs billions (or more) of their local currency to buy a loaf of bread. So what do these countries do instead? They use a different currency altogether. Maybe USD, maybe EUR, maybe something else. All the people who owned this other currency prior to the hyperinflation event are in a far better position that people who are now trying to purchase this other country at exchange rates of billions to one.

If the dollar goes to zero, and it costs a million dollars to buy a single euro (substitute with any other large currency), but I still own a bitcoin worth ~26,000 euros, then I will fare significantly better than if I owned no bitcoin.

Although many were also thinking that USD will hyperinflate like the Zimbabwe Dollar, the USD might not really go that low even if it will be debased. Looking at UK's money they were not that low after the dollar displaced them, their money is still quite high even today.

Yuan may be used widely in international trade as seem to be what is happening with BRICS nation, China knows how hard it is to keep up on top which is why they are encouraging countries to just trade with currency of every country.

Hyper inflation will not happen for the USD.

Hyper inflation is a nuts number by definition.

50% a month

see definition here:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hyperinflation.asp

USD is not doing 1% a month.  Think 0.5% to 0.8% the last 17-20 months

If it was hyper inflation eggs would have went from 2 usd a dozen to 6650

They have gone from 2 to 7 the last 20 months. that is 0.64%

so talking that 0.64% is hyperinflation when 50% is the definition is simply way off.

The Fed is doing what may very well be "The Battle of the Bulge" that was a desperate military last ditch effort for the Nazis in WWII

BTW it failed .

The FED will do 0.25% in a month again for sure and very likely 0.25% in mid June.

At this point they may run out of ammo so to speak. Should be fun to see how it goes.

Never say never.

Watch this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

Was anyone really expecting that? Two different countries with two different economies would not have the same result even if they perform the same actions, here we have different actions with the Zimbabwe situation and that of the U.S.A.
The U.S might be making brain dead decisions, but its economy can accommodate lots of such before it sinks into hyper inflation.

They want to police the world so there is no one left to police them.

That would even be an unequal equivalent. One is being pushed into circulation from thin air and the other is already mined and just coming back into circulation after staying dormant.

- Jay -

depending on how much bitcoin you owned you might be ok but there's still issues to consider. for example, you might not have a job anymore. you might have to consider leaving the usa so you can get away from the us dollar and be free to buy those euros and use them...

as an altetrnative to owning bitcoin i suppose someone could own gold or silver. those are also inflation hedges.

Absolutely, but it can't accommodate an infinite amount of stupid decisions and money printing. We are currently riding off of previous successes and a previously strong economy. Prior to the 2008 crash, the Fed's balance sheet was sitting at around $0.85 trillion. 15 years later, it now sits at almost $9 trillion. This means that in the last 15 years, we've printed 9x more money than we had in the entire history of the US before 2008. This is clearly unsustainable.

True, but harder to safely store where you can easily access it, harder to spend, difficult for the average person to verify, and almost impossible for the average person to subdivide as needed to buy goods. All of this is very easy with bitcoin.

This is true, there is only so much a strong economy can take. In their board rooms they must be thinking that they would not get to make an infinite amount of such decisions and have enough time to undo whatever damage is done now.
"Hopefully, we stumble on some purple patch and the economy bounces strong, and all would be forgotten"

- Jay -

Pretty sure the production of goods/services hasn't gone up 9x in 15 years... but it surely has made rich people with assets richer (Cantillon effect).

It's a shame we're on a Bitcoin forum, most people here are long-time BTC hodlers and yet they don't realize this simple fact?

Printing so much money out of thin air is legalized forgery by FED.

Unless regulations get even stricter, you can buy fiat currencies in the same (but more complicated) manner that you buy bitcoin. If people observe their currency getting devalued rapidly, then I don't see why not switching to another. The problem is that it's too difficult to have cash of non-foreign currency; here bitcoin comes.

In addition to what o_e_l_e_o said, if you're not a goldsmith, you're about to pay lots in the verification part. On the other hand, verifying that you own bitcoin is free.

The US government just sold another batch of Silk Road BTC for worthless dollars...

These idiots don't realize: 1) they have the FED, 2) BTC's scarcity, 3) BTC's 4-year halving cycles.

By late 2025 they will wish they had hedl!

But hey, at least it's good for people who want to buy cheap BTC (I guess it's no longer considered "tainted").

you don't need to subdivide it. just sell your gold coin or bar at the pawn shop. then go spend your money. i could say the same thing about bitcoin. difficult for the average person to verify because the average person might not even know anything about bitcoin.

i doubt it.
https://www.amazon.com/GemOro-AuRACLE-6-24K-Platinum-Tester/dp/B00D6Q8EO4

i'm sure that every pawn shop that buys gold has some type of device like this. it's not a big cost at all. and that's not how they make their money by price gouging people on "verification".

well, if you can find someone that has a computer connected to the internet and who understand how bitcoin works, maybe it is.

if the dollar went to 0, they might make it illegal to buy other fiat currencies or even bitcoin.  :o

right. you can't spend foreign fiat at businesses here in the usa. so it's worthless.

you still have to follow government laws. if they made bitcoin illegal for usa people then what then?  

In a scenario where it costs $1 million for a loaf of bread, how many wheelbarrows will you need to cart around the cash you receive for selling a bar of gold? And you better spend all that cash today, because by next week it will have lost another 90% of its value.

So now you are entirely dependent on a third party who can price gouge you. And who is to say that in an economic collapse pawn shops will even still exist or operate or want to buy gold? Not to mention carrying around wheelbarrows full of cash as above, since who knows if internet banking will still be working. Bitcoin solves all of this.

Using a wallet such as Electrum on your phone is good enough for most people.

You forget that I lost all my bitcoin in an unfortunate boating accident!

yeah, i mean that's a good point. 


then you'll have some explaining to do when they see you out scuba diving  ;D

Interesting video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=884wXCT-i7A

what's so interesting about it? seems like about 1 minute of some guy talking about how the us economy is a drag on the rest of the world. but yet everyone in china wants to sell their products here in america. go figure.

It will probably take me a dozen posts to explain this to you (like the 1 million bet) and in the end you won't even apologize about your ignorance. ::)

Not worth my time... wait for hyperinflation to kick in. :o

From the above posting, it seems to me like James wants to risk $1 million of his own money.


But then Balaji replies to that tweet saying that he'll put up $1 million and james only needs to risk 1BTC. I doubt that's what James had in mind...


sorry for my ignorance.  :-[

when is that going to happen exactly? just say a date no need to explain why.

Well, it seems you need a primer on who Soros is and why he says what he says...

Chrystia Freeland is less well-known (she froze many bank accounts in Canada), but she's not a mere coincidence either. Do you know what WEF is?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo1PiiVEfGQ

Someone with moderate IQ can easily connect the dots...

Hell, most people don't even realize USA has not been a sovereign nation for a long time.

FED is owned by certain people (that tend to use occult symbolism (https://ychef.files.bbci.co.uk/976x549/p08y6v3j.jpg)) and these folks want to dismantle the US and promote China instead.

Crazy, right? As soon as China invades Taiwan (around 2026/BTC's next bear market most likely), the West will try to hit China with sanctions (like they did with Russia).

On noes, they won't be able to sell their Made in China products to spoiled US folks? Too bad the BRIC alliance opens up a whole new market for consumption.

US/EU won't be able to import anything with their hyperinflated trash.

I suggest to read this too: https://www.brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/

Oops:

https://twitter.com/RadarHits/status/1651210188513243138

 :o :o :o

Balaji right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

 ;D

isn't it really easy to short the dolllar though? anyone can do it right? they don't even have to be a billionaire.

balaji is an idiot. to be quite honest, he did that bet more to get attention than to actually make any money. he knew it was going to lose. he knows its going to lose. but it's not much money to him.  :o

the only thing that i dont like about his bet is that he didn't let me put up 1btc. and get in on the action...if only there was more dumb people like him then people like me could place a bet with them instead...

so 2 things to update this thread:

#1: balaji closed out his bet and admitted defeat early so he lost his $1 million but we all knew that would happen. i don't think he seriously thought it wouldn't though.

#2: the usa is heading towards a bankruptcy/default on debt this june unless the usa government prints some serious money or they're talking about issuing "premium" bonds at a higher interest rate. sounds like a ponzi scheme now. the usa government is becoming the laughing stock of the world since it can't be fiscally responsible. and thus causing inflation and ruin peoples' lives.

Balaji is a man of his own word, but to be fair, his bet ends in June 17. I have no idea why he ended it prematurely and even gave 50% more money (https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1653451860488130565)!

If USA defaults on its debt by then, Balaji could be redeemed (chances are very slim of course, but you never know!)... 43 days left. :)

1.1 trillion USD per year just for interest payments (https://twitter.com/dunleavy89/status/1653353098557964288) (more than the military/Pentagon budget). :o

well you just provided a link to the answer. it wasn't a real bet. what it was is he was wanting to make some donations to orgnizations of HIS choice there was literally NO bet at all.  no one put up money to do the bet. except him. and only at the very end to "pay if off" how's that?  


their ace in the hole is that trillion dollar coin. all they have to do is mint one of them and it's assigned a value of 1 trillion dollars. imagine how many of those they can make if they just retool the machines that use dies that produce pennies.  it's all starting to make sense now. stop making pennies, start making trillion dollar coins.  :o the cost is the same but the profit is way higher.

And what do you think they will do? My 12-year-old nephew knows, and so do you.


Maybe it just sounds like what it is. So a ponzi scheme that sounds like a ponzi scheme.


On this I do not agree. What the US does is not very different from what is done around the world. In the EU they are not much better off, for example. And there are places much worse, like Argentina, with close to 100% inflation in 2022 (https://elpais.com/argentina/2023-01-12/argentina-cierra-2022-con-948-de-inflacion-la-mas-alta-desde-1991.html). The US compared to Argentina, Turkey and others is a laugh.

In any cryptocurrency project, such a dirty trick immediately leads to the accusation of a scam and the collapse of the project. Well, the fact that the dollar scam has long been known in the bitcoin community, it seems that the whole world will soon know about it.

Not only it was a real bet, but he paid 1.5 million, way more than he promised. How many people have the balls to do that?

IMHO, we have to wait until June 17. There's one in a billion chance he gets redeemed.

Maybe Davos/WEF want to induce hyperinflation to destroy USD/EUR and bring CBDC to the forefront. It's called the Great -Bank/Currency/Debt- Reset.

Destroy people's savings via hyperinflation (including physical cash -> no longer "king") and then present the "solution" called CBDC. (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/problem-reaction-solution)

Sounds insidious enough, doesn't it?

I have no idea why Bitcoin maxis accuse altcoin projects of scammy/Ponzi tactics, but at the same time they justify the US/FED scam shitcoin?

Cognitive Dissonance 101 ::)

This is a slightly tangential issue to money printing, which involves the US' arbitrary debt ceiling. No doubt we'll have the usual back and forth nonsense of both sides blaming the other while both do absolutely nothing to address the our ballooning debt, before raising it at the last minute as usual.

I mean, it's currently only $31.4 trillion and hasn't been raised in over a year! Lets bump another few trillion on there! What could possibly go wrong! ::)

Interesting:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/138hngx/us_senator_banks_exist_on_the_basis_of_trust/

 :o

I don't really care about him donating a small percentage of his overall net worth to organizations that he chooses.

1) $500k to Bitcoin Core development via Chaincode: http://bit.ly/core500k
2) $500k to Give Directly: http://bit.ly/gived500k
3) $500k to Medlock: http://bit.ly/med500k

or you're telling me that these 3 organizations somehow lucked out to get his action while all the other people on his twitter begging him he just ignored them.

he's not looking to get his donations back. he'll probably deduct them off his taxes. after all, isn't that what you do with charitible donations?


Well, i'm not 100% sure what they'll do. But most likely 94% they'll just print the $1 trillion dollar coin. And keep things running. But there is a chance that they'll do something else as an alternative. But I put that at 5% probability. 1% probability nothing gets done at all, not in time.


Inflation happens in the USA too, not just argentina. There's products that go up by 100% in one single year. Even in the usa.


non-essential products going up by 100% is different than essential products but then we get into a debate about what is considered essential. some people would say mcdonald's is an essential thing. but i'm not sure that's a solid position.  :o

right. they always wait til the last minute. just once i'd like to see them stand firm and say no more. just so we could see what happens. might not be pretty. but i can tell you what would happen. every day there would be more and more complaining until joe biden finally had them print some more money.  :o

imagine in 100 years what it will be. it will make $31.4 trillion look like a manageable non-issue.



 

We know part of what will happen, because it's happened several times before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States

Government departments shut down, and millions of employees have their pay delayed or just aren't paid at all. The economy takes a hit of billions of dollars. If it goes on long enough, then emergency funding for things like social security, medicare/medicaid, food stamps, etc., runs out, and so all these things shut down as well, and we cease to pay the interest on our debt. If we default on our debt, then who knows what happens at that point. All government spending stops. The stock market crashes. Millions of job losses. Economy tanks. Borrowing costs rise. The global market starts to abandon the US dollar, compounding all these problems further. Will make 2008 look like a blip.

100 years ago the US national debt was somewhere around $20 billion, so around 0.06% of where it is today. It took about 60 years from then to hit the first trillion dollars. And yet in the last 10 years, we've added 15 trillion dollars. 60 years for the first trillion, now an average of 8 months per trillion. Not only is the debt constantly increasing, it is increasing at an exponential rate.

The debt cannot continue to increase unchecked indefinitely. At some point, we hit a debt crisis where the interest payments alone are unsustainable. And the whole thing comes crashing down.

Do I really have to explain this to you? I doubt if it is worth debating with you if I have to explain something as simple as the difference between inflation in a country like Argentina going up 100% in 2022 and some countries like USA going up 8%. Come on my nephew has it clear.


What is usually not very solid is a straw man argument. To get into an argument with someone who doesn't understand simple facts and who tries to refute things you haven't said, it's best to put him on ignore.

Maybe Argentina is the canary in the coal mine for the entire West...

i wasn't talking about the government shutting down. i was talking about the usa defaulting on its debt.


what if they just invent a new currency and start over again and start paying people a flat rate in that new currency and forget about all the old debt. everyone would just have to accept that and get by the best they could. but i think that's a better solution than all of the things you mentioned above. the scenario you mention above would happen only if all other options had been exhausted which they clearly havent. maybe moving to a digital dollar would fix all of this if the new dollar wasn't tied to the old one.



platinum is not so expensive that they would ever run out of platinum for minting these trillion dollar coins. in fact, these platinum coins could be denominated in other amounts too such as quadrillion, quintillion, septillion, we'll never run out of higher denominations. so you're saying it can't continue indefinitely but clearly it can. in the sense that there are always larger denominations you can use. while you work on reigning in expenses and trimming the fat in washington and elsewhere. also, keep in mind that if they do mint a trillion dollar platinum coin, that thing is going to be valuable. which means the IRS will be looking to extract that out of the middle class or anyone else they can get it from.  :o plus, just imagine the security expenses that would be required to guard such a coin. 24/7 around the clock monitoring because if someone stole that, that would be the biggest bank heist in american history.

Lol what? And how do you expect us to import literally anything when we've just shown the entire world that our currency is completely worthless? How do we operate on a global scale when we just ignore the trillions of dollars in debt we owe other countries?

The Fed don't actually have to mint physical coins - they can just change numbers on a screen to print trillions of dollars. And there are plenty of examples of countries undergoing hyperinflation which will show you what would happen if we start printing quadrillions of dollars.

you start using the new dollar to pay for imports. just like i said.

you just put that all on hold and start fresh with a new dollar. kind of like a restructuring. people that were owed money would be lein holders but there would be no time table of when they would get paid back if anything.



I think the usa should switch over to a platinum based currency system. Platinum has alot of things going for it. Unlike gold, it is easy to detect if its fake. You don't need any specialized equipment...perfect for a non-inflationary monetary system.  :o

"Hey China. I know we owe you over a trillion dollars. But we are just going to not pay that and write off the entire currency. Sorry you lose all that money. Hey, want to sell us some goods? We're going to pay in USD2.0. This time you'll definitely get paid back though! Pinky promise!"

Right. I'm sure that will work out swimmingly! ::)

But the Fed can't print platinum out of thin air, so of course that will never happen.

https://youtu.be/0MetSjP8SJM

 :o :o :o

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/paul-krugman-us-debt-default-ceiling-crisis-government-spending-cuts-2023-5

 :o

https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1654090844717064192

 ::)

“We will not increase the size of the national debt that every U.S. president has done for 6 million years,” Biden said (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXYQk8RGMts). ;D

Knowing for sure to lose, Balaji Srinivasan paid $1,000,000 in $1 million Bitcoin bets in 90 days (https://news.bitcoin.com/ex-coinbase-exec-balaji-srinivasan-closes-out-1-million-bitcoin-bet/). These funds went to Bitcoin Core developers Chaincode Labs and to the Give Directly foundation a charity that supports people living in poverty in Africa and America.

Currently, the US debt has reached a very large figure and the debt crisis is a real threat to the US economy. However, the US government has several options for avoiding debt default, such as reducing government spending, raising taxes, and printing money. However, all of these options have serious consequences, such as slowing economic growth, triggering inflation, or exacerbating social inequality.

The debt crisis in the US can also have a global impact, because the US is one of the largest economic powers in the world. If the US defaults on its debts, then this can lead to worldwide economic instability.

Therefore, it is important for the US to improve its debt situation and take appropriate measures to overcome the debt crisis. However, this is not only the responsibility of the US itself, but also of other countries involved in trade and investment with the US.

it's totally ok to do that. and they wouldn't have a choice. what are they going to do? protest by not selling cheap stuff on ebay?


if we're willing to drop atomic bombs on countries then i'd say this is much less severe than that.

i was just saying that there is an argument for using platinum as money. it serves that purpose better than gold.

i wish someone would bet ME that bitcoin will be $1,000,000 in 90 days. with me taking the "no" side. even money bet. but no one is willing to put their money where their mouth is, we all know that. they'll say things like "it's possible, we can't be so sure it won't happen" but they would never put their cash on the line... :o


just curious, did you get that out of a dictionary or something? sounds like it!

Sleepy Senile Joe makes America look like a joke country or something.

what about all those migrants living in the $700 per night hotel that has 500 rooms. what kind of country does that? one that is going down in flames. that's what.    and the best part is...it's all at taxpayer expense.

people can forget about the national debt problem. and start worrying about the usa being invaded and overrun because that's exactly what is happening.  :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

In 410 AD Rome was overrun by barbarians...

i wonder how many barbarians it took to overrun Rome because it can't be as many as the # of migrants that have gotten into the usa. and they're still coming. i saw a video where they were floating up on the beach in florida. it's not just happening at the mexico border, they're attacking on other fronts too. it won't be long until the usa is under their complete control. and say goodbye to modern society when that happens. they trashed that expensive hotel, i heard, leaving empty beer bottles and stuff. someone has to clean that crap up!  :o

at some point i say they will head to washington and demand more money from joe biden and he'll be helpless to stop them.

Those millions crossing borders will be a labor force in the country which I think is a plan.

Debt is still there but inflation will definitely devalued that debt. The $1Trillion coin proposal I think is not so bad to do with situation this time where Yellen already broke the story that they are out of cash this June. USD value will plunged but it will still be alive. And they have plans to launch CBDC already if I remember this will be in June or July which will save the economy still with a pinky promise but it will work.

i don't really see how that works though. what kind of jobs exactly? isn't there already a job shortage? AI isn't going to make that any better. plus these millions will put a strain on the healthcare system. because they will get free healthcare which is kind of good because it should be free but health insurance premiums are already high enough and guess whose premiums will be going up because of all of this?

maybe the $1 trillion coin is ok to do once but that's a slippery slope. if they do it once, they'll do it again. and again ....

You think we are the only country in the world which trades with other countries? If we deliberately trash our currency, then every other country will just trade elsewhere. No reason for them to trade with us when they know we are so untrustworthy.

So your plan to deal with the debt is to ignore it completely and then threaten nuclear winter and the potential extinction of the human race for anyone who questions it? ::)

You probably want to stop believing everything you hear on Fox News.

well i wouldn't call importing the same thing as trading. but maybe you consider importing and exporting to be trading. the thing is, we import way more than we export here in the usa. we have the world's largest trade deficit of any country, i saw someone say.

but china needs us since we are a huge importer of their goods. without us, they couldn't survive. so they would still keep on exporting their goods here even if we did a little cooking of the books. i believe.

of course not, i think you misunderstood my reference to nagasaki and hiroshima. we killed alot of people with those bombs. people that were innocent...and apparently it was justified. so if we can do something like that then there's nothing we can't do. including not paying our debts. and telling our creditors to stand in line.

you don't do much reading do you?

https://dnyuz.com/2023/05/09/80000-illegal-migrants-heading-to-us-crossing-southern-border-as-title-42-ends/

As the Biden administration plans to wind down the pandemic-era border restriction on Thursday, broad swaths of migrants from South America have amassed at the U.S.-Mexico border, with some 80,000 currently stationed in Guatemala already planning to head to the southern border, according to a report.

there's even more coming after that... :o

China have the rest of the world to export to, and are already in talks with the likes of Russia and India to replace the dollar for their international trade. If we deliberately default on our debts, you can guarantee the dollar is abandoned by everyone.

Of course we can refuse to pay our debts. But you seem to think we just launch a new currency and nothing changes. Our economy would tank, our credit rating would tank, all foreign investment disappears, international trade is impossible, job losses in the millions. The country would be a mess for a long time.

Yes there are migrants, but saying that they are going to take "complete control" of the US is nonsense.

i'm not sure i can understand the logic there. you're just making a hypothesis, because its never happened before.

again, these are just hypotheses because it has never happened so you can't really say 100% for sure. certainly there could be negative consequences but there could also be non-negative consequences too such as getting out of debt.

they've already kind of brought new york to its knees. that situation in new york is going to reach a boiling point and then what? then new york city starts shipping them to another state because they can't handle anymore. california maybe. but then california start shipping them to another state because they can't handle anymore. and so on. but then at some point, the migrants get tired of being mistreated so they amass a group of a million of them and march on washington. joe biden gets flown out to a secret location far away to keep him safe while they overrun the whitehouse gates and start living in the whitehouse.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/circle-reportedly-adjusts-usdc-reserves-to-avoid-us-default-risk

 :o

July 2023:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230315a.htm

Who is going to accept this digital slavery?

No sane person will, unless an "accident" happens this June. ::)

do you even know what FedNow is? here's a quote from your link:

Through financial institutions participating in the FedNow Service, businesses and individuals will be able to send and receive instant payments at any time of day, and recipients will have full access to funds immediately, giving them greater flexibility to manage their money and make time-sensitive payments


you're way off the mark. most checking accounts in the usa offer some type of external ach transfer method so you can transfer money to another bank account that you own. i guess to you that's also "digital slavery" and therefore people shouldn't use banks.  :P

What's wrong with being able to send and receive instant payments 24/7? see, the benefit of that is you don't have to send your money to some 3rd party like coinbase who might freeze your account. not to mention having to pay hefty transaction fees.

https://news.bitcoin.com/average-bitcoin-transaction-fees-skyrocket-to-19-20-per-transfer-as-over-440000-transactions-remain-unconfirmed/

I guess you must be really dumb to not realize that FedNow is USA's CBDC. :o

Oh well... ::)

nah, it's not a cdbc. fednow is just a quick way to transfer money electronically within the usa. you still can convert that money to paper or coins so don't worry. no need to hide your cash under the mattress just yet...

i don't know what your definition of a cdbc is exactly but i don't think the usa has one of those.

Yet another CBDC denier.

I'm fiatless, you dumbfuck. What cash? Are you talking to your mother or what?

It took you a dozen posts to understand the 1m bet, so I'm not holding my breath... just wait and see.

The Elites of Davos won't make an exception specifically for the "almighty" USA. Every country/state will be forced to jump on the CBDC bandwagon.

Don't like it? Get out of the Union and make your own central bank (it's not your central bank if it's controlled by the Rothschilds). JFK had the balls to try that.

ps: Get off your high horse, nobody can deny their debt or cook the books without repercussions.

10+ years ago you mocked Greece. Now USA is becoming the next Greece, a bigger version of it I might say.

WEF will trigger hyperinflation and they will fuck clueless Americans like you in the ass. Just like barbarians fucked clueless Ancient Romans in the ass.

That's what you get for being arrogant pricks ("Murica fuck yeah, I'm not paying my debt to filthy Chinese creditors, I'll sit on my fat ass, all while eating Doritos and still order chinese stuff on ebay, because I'm Murican!").

Convert your fiat to BTC while you can! I shouldn't have to say this on bitcointalk forums, but there you go... :o

well, for one thing, I didn't solicit any financial advice from you or anyone here on the forum. they're welcome to their opinion though but i do kind of think that you might be taking it a step too far in telling people what to do with their money.

to get this thread back on track though, all they need to do is print a $1 trillion platinum coin. it does need to be made out of platinum though. gold or silver are not allowed apparently.  :o

oh, title 42 expired today or yesterday. maybe you can explain to us what that means in real world terms. i'm listening...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/president-biden-announces-nominations-for-key-positions-at-federal-reserve

Looks like they will need a disastrous event (hyperinflation) to introduce CBDC... ::)

Only after you wipe out people's savings (including hoarded cash) they'll be willing to accept CBDC as a (final) "solution". :o

No wonder rich people (from Elon Musk to Bill Gates) rarely hodl cash. They prefer stocks or even land (https://theprimetime.in/bill-gates-became-americas-biggest-farmer-bought-242000-acres-in-18-states/).

they could just say they are doing it to fight terrorism and human trafficking.

they could just offer a $10 or $20 starbucks gift card in return for converting your cash into a cdbc. for those problematic people who refused to go along with it, they could start charging a premium for paying in cash like 25%.  :o

there's only so much cash a person needs. anything after that is just sitting there doing nothing. that's why.

Printing more money while raising rates in theory to combat inflation is going to quickly become nonsense.   Japan is already further down this road and well aware they exist in a ruined landscape financially that government is broke though the country could do well without them it hardly bodes well for the health of an economy if the largest issuer of debt is unworthy via its endless refusal to settle debts.
  Can any major debtor modern nation now settle their debts, what happens when this is called upon with reference to our knowledge of how bad effects easily spread globally & with a domino effect of losses and decline in trade.   I almost hope they get away with their nonsense as it will be so troublesome in conclusion when it topples.

She's the next Twitter CEO and she works for WEF:

https://twitter.com/lindayacc/status/1623422588776054785

"as of Sept 2024, the currency we’ve all used for years is going to disappear"

You better tell me what will happen by September 2024! :o

There's a lot of work going on behind the scenes:

https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/cbdc/icebreaker.htm
https://www.bis.org/publ/othp61.htm

what's wrong with all of that. wouldn't you say the international bank wire system is a rip off and needs updating?

why do you think something is going to happen by september 2014? just because someone tweeted something?  people tweet all kinds of nonsense...

You clearly don't know what WEF/Great Reset is.

lets get back to reality. conspiracy theories belong on some miscellaneous forum. :o lets talk about hard data. things like the national debt and whether they're going to mint that trillion dollar platinum coin to kick the problems further down the road.

You seem dumber and dumber with every new post you make.

You're truly franky2.

It's not a conspiracy theory at all, but dumb people are not going to be convinced:

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/ :o

People like you are the reason US will fall and it's going to hurt a lot.

What if "the rest of the world" as you call it doesn't want the product of China with time? Just saying, but I don't like it when I see people thinking that China could just displace the US overnight. I am waiting for this though. China rose to this prominence because of the financial disparity of the world, they leveraged the poverty and suffering of many countries. They can do your product at a very low price regardless of the quality. Many countries embraced it and enrich a country that will one day become a HUGE problem to the world. 'You can mark my word on that.'

No matter what is happening to the US now, I believe they would overcome, this is not the first time they would be faced with economic and financial issues, they always bounce back greater. I will never forget the contribution of that great country to the world. We appreciate somewhat freedom now, they are partly to be appreciated for what they preach, their ideology and for ensuring stability in the world. Not to mention their contribution to the UN, and WHO among others, while China always take the backseat and even threaten to abandon the climate change agreement, to say the least. Is that a leader?

They are only leveraging on the desperation of Russia, and their deal with India is failing. They will always try with their currency dominance, but they will fail because it can't be done with a crook, you have to economically earn it, which is not about exportation only, not even with conspiracy as they are doing now. China will always be a threat to the world as far as I am concerned, only that people are still blind to it.

Don't worry, let the world continues, they will one day surely regret the evil they've nursed. China will not give you one thing and not expect to collect it back 10 times. It's evident in the deals they've brokered with some countries in Asia and Africa leveraging on their weakness and desperation.

Some have even hinted that China could eventually overthrow the United States in a chorus of finger-wagging. Nonsense! It's like hoping that Cinderella's pumpkin will magically transform into a carriage. Certainly not! Growth in China? This is a very devious game. They rule over developing countries by supplying them with low-priced goods, some of which are subpar. A real trick by a master magician, but with tchotchkes. However, you shouldn't underestimate the United States. Like Rocky, they've been knocked down yet always get back up. The United States is the undisputed champion of the international ring, where it fights for freedom and maintains relative calm. They have done a lot of work for the UN, the WHO, and many other organisations. That deserves a toast, so let's do it!

They don't show their emotions much in China. They ignore critical issues, such as global warming, and instead look for opportunities to take advantage of weaker countries. They are taking a big gamble, but only time will tell if it pays off. Truth will eventually emerge as the planet continues to spin. Although China may feel confident, they should remember that karma is very real. If it goes up, it must fall. Now they've scored an easy victory, but what about the dubious bargains they made with lesser nations? The opposite is true. A lot!

how is that?

if you want me to believe your narrative it's going to take alot more than a few insults and links to crappy looking websites to do that. your best effort so far was a link to how the roman empire fell, i have to give you credit for that one but not your latest stuff...

i'm not the one letting 15 million migrants into the usa this year. didn't donald trump say he thought that's how many of them would make it in even though other orginizations want to use a smaller number? who are YOU going to believe?  :o

Doesn't make things any better for us in the US. If China are faced with trading with rest of the world or trading with a country which has defaulted on its debt and will not pay its creditors, then they have no reason to choose the latter, knowing in advance they will simply lose money.

"Greater" is definitely subjective. The only reason we have bounced back every time is because we have increased the debt ceiling and taken on exponentially higher levels of debt. This cannot continue forever.

yeah they've done it like 60 times in the past or something. they'll probably do it again this june.

now they're wanting to blame low income people and people of modest means for the entire debt ceiling problem - going after their benefits.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/tougher-work-requirements-federal-aid-programs-pose-obstacle-debt-limi-rcna84778

The House GOP bill would require states to implement work requirements for some people on Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income people. It would also require able-bodied adults up to age 55 to work a minimum of 20 hours per week or satisfy other criteria to get SNAP benefits for more than three months every three years.

As if that's the reason we owe $31 trillion dollars...as if stealing paltry sums from poor folks is going to put any type of dent in something you caused.  >:(

Loosening and tightening at the same time? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of either, and is that really what Japan is currently doing?

 :o

I believe Japan is still loose with their monetary policy. Because the last update I've read about the Bank of Japan is they're printing more Yen to save their bond market and maintaining their rates low below 1%.

Huh? You yourself asked for the Great Reset, and he gave you the official page which describes in detail what's about it. What else do you want as evidence that there exists, indeed, such campaign?

It cannot continue forever, granted. The question is when will it happen. Why do countries still feel confident with the USD, after all these further actions the US has taken to retain their economy, which discredit their currency?

i visited the "official page" but all i see is some blurbs about coronavirus along with some links to videos about covid-19. looks like a poorly designed website put together by some cheap fiver gig. to be honest.  :o maybe there's more to it than that but i couldn't be bother to try and figure out what.

meanwhile governor abbot is really sending buses of migrants not only to NYC but to other states too. That's your great reset right there. it's like getting a package that you can't return. so this governor abbot is really playing his cards right. but i guess he still has to pay for the greyhound bus bill. but that's cheaper than putting everyone up in the marriott... :o

Because, simply, no other fiat currency is better than the U.S. Dollar in Liquidity, Saveability, and Investability.

To make Bitcoin an example, it's the same situation. Anyone open a debate that there are "better cryptocurrencies" out in the market, but not all merchants and services accept those "better currencies". Bitcoin contrastingly is accepted EVERYWHERE in crypto, which makes it better in Liquidity, Saveability, and Investability.

Oops:

https://twitter.com/RadarHits/status/1660946936394924033

Looks like The Great -Bank/Currency/Debt- Reset is coming pretty soon, the elites cannot wait any longer... ::)

Of course the Average Joe is going to deny it again and again, but he'll be convinced when he sees his 401k turning into ashes. :o

Some people (true Bitcoin maxis) realize it way before the masses:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/13oxswn/nfa_i_stopped_contributing_to_my_401k_and_decided/

so the elites are looking to squeeze that final bit of cash out of american citizens? i guess that means warren buffet will be trading in his small house for a larger one anytime soon.

but think of all the taxes they saved by stuffing their 401k full of un-needed cash. that's the real win right there.  :o

i'll have to look into this... :-\

anyone been seeing those news stories that the national debt increased in the last month or so by around a trillion dollars or some insane amount. at this rate, an apple is going to cost a day's wages.

https://usdebtclock.org/
https://www.tekedia.com/us-debt-increases-by-210-billion-in-two-weeks/

This is not sustainable...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-survey-china-world-superpower-185949233.html
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/america-s-dominance-is-over/

Nothing lasts forever (not even Bitcoin, but the USD is already geriatric compared to BTC).

thanks for the link i knew i had seen the story somewhere!

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Treasury will run out of cash and borrowing authority by October or November 2023, unless Congress acts to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. If that happens, the US would face an unprecedented default on its debt, which could trigger a global financial crisis and a severe recession.


you can thank biden and the democrats for wanting to pay off everyone's student loans plus all the free handouts immigrants are getting plus probably alot of other free cash programs for all of this.  :o

yeah it's become ridiculous. i mean, it's like they raised the debt ceiling just so they could borrow more money to hand out. and then they'll need to do it again later this year. OR ELSE. all the rhetoric about tightening up the spending belt was pure BS.


i thought they had a plan in place to reduce spending but I GUESS NOT!

biden has to be the worst president ever in us history about how he doesn't care about the devaluation of the us dollar.

the dollar gets devalued all the time.. thats the whole point of the dollar.
biden did not cause it. its due to events from many years back

also treasury money is suppose to help those less well off.. its not suppose to give banks trillions.. also by writing off alot of student debt it did actually help lower the debt. thats what write offs do!!

if you think it was ok to bail the banks for X years but not give small cheques/write offs to the little guys then you have failed another test of economic knowledge

yes the dollar is getting devalued. get used to it. why do you think bitcoin was invented for to hedge against the dollar

if you did not realise the whole world is impacted by inflation. not just bidens USA.. and if you look closer. its the BANKS that are at fault

look at the actions of the BANKS.. you know.. where the real economics stem from

i guarantee you that the in the last 10 years the 15 TRILLION added on. did not go to the little guys like migrants or whatever fox news told you to blame it on

there is a meme going around of how media want you to think.. but look who actually has the cookies
https://i.redd.it/idxmkwks7za81.jpg

We have had this exact news story at least twice a year for decades. We raise the limit, we spend with abandon, we come close to the limit, we risk a shutdown (occasionally we do shutdown), we raise the limit, we repeat endlessly. This has nothing to do with Biden, and everything to do with our completely broken political system being bought out by the oligarchs who actually run this country.

Let's blame this on the student debts, will we? Let's ignore the trillions in evaded taxes from said oligarchs? Let's ignore the trillions used to bail out the banks over and over again? Let's ignore the billions in PPP loans which billionaires took and then wrote off? Let's ignore that we have to subsidize people in full time employment because these billionaires won't pay them a reasonable wage?

Of course it was. Next time there is a bank needing bailed out, the money printer will start up again without hesitation.

Lol. Yeah, definitely Biden's fault. We'll just ignore the Trump tax cuts for the rich which cost 5x what student debt forgiveness is going to cost, shall we? ::)

Interesting read:

https://goldswitzerland.com/a-catastrophic-debt-implosion-can-be-incredibly-quick/

many countries are owed debt from USA.. however many countries owe debt to the USA.
deals can be done to mutually cancel each others debt 1:1 where not money changes hands but they mutually reduce their debt from each other

what do you mean by "all the time"? and yes biden is causing it when he pays 800,000 people $10,000 towards their student loans.

no one is "writing off" student debt, they're just forcing american taxpayers to pay it for these former students many of whom can afford to pay it themself but don't want to because they want someone else to pay it for them even though they agreed to pay it back themself when they got the loans.

you're comparing two totally different situations. it's a common logical fallacy franky.

why should i get used to it? the only time it gets devalued is when we print more of it. that only happens at certain points in time, not "all the time". and no bitcoin was not invented to hedge against the dollar or any other fiat currency. you really need to get your facts straight. read satoshi's white paper maybe. does it mention hedging against the dollar? i doubt it...

you may like to THINK of it as a hedge against inflation or the us dollar but that's only your mind playing tricks on you.


banks are a necessary part of modern society thus we have to keep them running. if the taxpayers have to bail them out then so be it. everyone shares that burden equally though. unlike say student loan forgiveness where one group of people is getting one over on the other...


two wrongs don't make a right. you can point to other injustices but you can't use them as reasons why something else is not wrong.

it doesn't make sense that you would pay $10,000 towards someone's student loans if they are making $100,000 per year.

he is not paying people $10k!! he is getting the debt written off by the banks
also the students dont get the cancellation upfront. they have to make 120 months(10 years) of payments.. and then have the remainder wrote off
learn FORGIVENESS
EG


what you need to learn is that the government does not give students new cash to pay off debt. it just tells students they dont need to pay the loan company. thus detaches the students obligation to the bank..

what you need to then realise is because the loan is THEN only between the government and the bank it temporarily sits as a liability on government books. however then the government does a deal with the bank for the bank to not claim against the government. so it appears as a rise of ~$500b (multi year liability compressed into a 1 year liability line on the books)

because the banks due to other QE stuff owe the government. thus they cancel out their deal later. thus no money changes hands in all three parties. they are just wrote off at different times

as for all the time, you love images and memes and hate technical descriptions. so heres a simple one
https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/1032048/value-us-dollar-since-1640.jpg
ever since the 1700's the value of the dollar has been on a decline.. its not just happened since 2020, its been happening all the time even before your great great great great grandad was born

as for banks being more equal
if they are causing home owners mortgage rates to increase due to THE BANKS activity/impact of inflation. then they should near the end of the mortgage write off the difference to mortgage payers first quote vs the variable rate that has cause people negative impact

as for you thinking our taxes of any country should benefit the banks more then the people.. you really must be trolling for entertainment..
if a business cannot run sustainably on its own merit. then lose the bank. let more prosperous banks manage the customers
if a bank/business/scheme is doing something shady/illegal/negligently. remove that culprit

he might as well be paying people 10k in cash because it has the same affect.

wrong. now that everyone knows student loans are unenforceable and the government really doesn't require them to be repaid, no one is going to worry about making their payments on time. if at all.


oh ok well i'll just tell my friend that he doesn't need to pay his mortgage anymore and that will detach him from the obligation to pay to the bank.

i don't know about that franky. they paid out cold hard cash so students could pay tuition, rent, food,etc and now you're telling me that cold hard cash was just imaginary? well then who did it come from?

students owe the money to the bank franky. the government doesn't owe it to the bank. but if the government has to step in and pay it on behalf of the students, then the taxpayer is on the hook.

its like me saying i borrowed 10 bitcoin from you and you gave it to greg first. and he gives me the 10 bitcoin. but greg already owes you 15 bitcoin from past dealings. so then you decide i don't need to pay anything and you'll settle up with greg by reducing his debt to only 5 bitcoin. greg is happy, i'm happy but you're very unhappy. unless you have a way of making new bitcoins out of thin air... :o or you have some power that allows you to approach some group of  a hundred of a thousand bitcointalk users and tell them that they need to pay you the 10 bitcoin that I didn't pay you back. it will only cost each of them a fraction of a bitcoin you tell them. you tell them they won't even notice it.

well, i'm not sure franky. maybe since we went off the gold standard the us dollar has been on a decline and we can understand why. but before that, i'm not sure what contributed to the decline. maybe you know.

As franky1 has explained, no money is actually changing hands. They are simply writing off liabilities. You know, just like they did for billions in PPP loans fraudulently taken out by billionaires. ::)

I assure you it happens all the time. Only around 3% of new money is printed by the government. 97% of new money comes from regular banks being fractional reserve and creating new money out of thin air every single time they hand out a loan, a mortgage, a line of credit, and so on, just like when they handed out these student loans. If anything you should be angry about the student loans existing in the first place since they created a whole bunch of new money out of thin air.

But people aren't? Billions to bail out banks which are worth hundreds of billions, but let people be made homeless and starve because fuck them? Lol.

Not even close.

And now that banks know they can do anything they like and still get bailed out, they won't worry about playing by the rules at all.

Thin air. That's how banks make loans. Have a read of this paper from the Bank of England: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf

but the government doesn't owe the banks the loan money. the borrowers do.

well as long as people were paying their loans back and getting punished if not then i had no issue with the student loans existing. but i didn't realize they also "created a whole bunch of new money out of thin air". seems like a ponzi scheme. maybe that's why banks never seem to run out of money to lend out? but they sure do take repayment seriously. you would think that if it was so easy to create they wouldn't get so upset if someone didn't pay it bank.

i'm in favor of a universal basic income so people can at least live in some level of dignity. but the usa government will do everything it can to not allow that to ever happen. they don't want everyone to have a basic shelter and food and such. if that happened then the usa would be destroyed forever i guess. it can't be the usa and have that.

don't they come up with new regulations after such disasters? but with this student loan debacle, seems like they just want to keep pumping out unenforceable student loans, aka, gifts of money.

Now you're getting it! Centralized fractional reserve banking is one giant scam.

Banks write off loans all the time. Once they've hounded you for as much as they can, they sell your debt on to some debt collector for cents on the dollar because it simply isn't worth their time or money any more.

I find it strange that you are in favor of this, but you are against student debt forgiveness when so many of the people being saddled with these ridiculous repayments are living in poverty or close to it.

Quite the opposite! Previously banks had to keep in reserve at least 10% of the assets on their books. In 2020 the Fed decided to lower that to 0% (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315b.htm) (where it still sits), meaning banks don't have to actually hold any assets whatsoever and are free to just endlessly lend out money that doesn't exist! Money printer goes brrrrr!

larry please please please friggen do some research or dont get involved in discussions you dont understand

the actual deal has nothing to do with making debts unenforceable. students still need to pay a tidy sum of the debt. but its the last portion (after XXX payments) that gets written off

banks do it all the time. learn about write offs, learn about banking, learn that its not biden passing money to student or banks. its actually biden doing a deal with banks to not have banks chase after students after X amount is paid off(minus  forgiven amount)

students still need to pay majority of debt but they get a small final portion wrote off.. again they are not handed cash to students, nor is biden creating cash nor is biden handing cash to banks

..
as for you saying "i don't know about that franky. they paid out cold hard cash so students could pay tuition, rent, food,etc"
actually what happened is:
he froze repayments due do covid so that students didnt have to start repaying their loans.. meaning the student didnt get free money. they just didnt have to pay the loan for a few years. thus appeared better off

students that were locked into campus housing but were forced to seek other accommodation due to covid meaning pay out as an extra expense for housing they thought were already paid for due to student loans for financial relief. not everyone did. but some did.. this was all part of the covid relief package

if you think students should be made homeless and die of starvation whilst you think bankers deserve a bonus for all their scheming and shoddy business practices, you really do have a warped sense of ethics and morals and reality

seems your the guy that wants banks to eat all the cookies while making everyone else fight over crumbs

for full clarity of the process
banks do not lend out bank customer deposits(unlike how some others think thats how loans work). instead banks were allowed to CREATE 10% of extra money vs depositors to give out as loans
EG say the banks had a combined 15trillion on deposits.. at any given time they could only hand out an extra 1.5tillion. which if loans had say a 10 year window of repayment. meant any given year they could only give out 150billion..(aka 1% a year of new temporary money~ vs customer deposits)

decades ago. this was not good enough for banks, it was too slow to claw back funds via repayments to refill the allotment to then offer fresh loans out, as they had new people wanting more loans. and so banks sold that debt onto other investors to refill the yearly allotment they were allowed(thats how the derivatives market came into play). by getting investors to fill the allotment instead of waiting for the loan payers.
thus the investors then got paid by the loan payers and the investora paid upfront to the bank for the debt the investors now own and need to be repaid by loan receivers

this meant that by investors refilling the allotment. the banks could make fresh loans faster rather then waiting for slow monthly repayments to refill the allotment over years.

and now that requirement is now 0% because the 10% became meaningless years ago. banks were producing more then 1% of new money pear year on a 10 year repayment vs depositors balance (which would calculate to be the 10% once repaid)
because they refilled the allotment with other sources to side step the purpose of the 10% function

I realize that this may be getting slightly off topic from the main discussion but I'm not against forgiving someone's debts if they qualify for it by having a low income. Just like people can get health insurance premiums reduced based on their income. I'm not sure what you mean by "living in poverty". One thing that never made sense to me is people who have large incomes but blow all their money on useless things and saddled with alot of consumer debt and large rent payments and things. That's their problem. I don't think someone making $100,000 per year should be asking for any help from the government.

OTOH, I feel for someone making only $30,000 per year after having graduated from college. They are either a loser or a victim. In either case, forgive their loan if possible. But make sure that they don't suddenly go up in income after that.

If you make loan forgiveness "means-based" then the only point of contention I might have is what income level qualifies them for loan forgiveness. Or how much to subsidize at each income level and where that cutoff is. I'm tired of hearing about how people making 6 figures need help with their bills....or even high 5 figures  :o


I'm surprised that you would be putting words in my mouth Franky. Students are supposed to graduate first and only then do they become responsible to start paying their loan back, once they get a nice paying job. What's the problem with them doing that? I expect them to do that. That's what they promised to do. I want students to pay back what they borrowed if they have  the means to do so once they get out in the workplace. All of it. Not just some of it unless they are low income. But I would be willing to bet you that 75% of these people that took out student loans and graduated now make more than $60,000 per year thus they have no excuse to why they can't keep paying. None at all. Rent too expensive? Find a roommate. Job doesn't pay enough? Maybe you need to stop eating out 5 times a week. Have too many other bills? Learn to live within your means. But don't expect tax payers to pay it for you.

The problem though with doing a blanket freeze on loan payments and interest though is the same problem that happened with the rent moratorium landlords really got screwed, some of them. No one wanted to resume paying rent.  :o

The problem is that in the future there won't be enough jobs for everyone, even if you got a university degree:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/11/29/automation-could-kill-73-million-u-s-jobs-2030/899878001/
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/12/business/dukaan-ceo-layoffs-ai-chatbot/index.html

Most people do this mistake: they think that the future will be exactly like the past ("oh, my father/grandfather got a degree and then got a nice paying job, so I'll do the same!").

Who guarantees you that???

Of course the same applies to Bitcoin too! Who guarantees you that 4-year cycles (halving-induced bull runs) will be a thing until 2140? I expect a couple more cycles (2025, 2029), but after that the halving effect will be minimal, if any.

Some people may argue that new jobs will be created... sure, you can become an AI engineer and earn tons of money (300k/year).

But for every new job created, hundreds will be lost. That's a fact and it doesn't sound good for the -totally clueless- majority.

And what are you gonna do when the AI becomes so advanced (AGI level) that it will become an AI engineer of itself? Tech progress never stops.

"Oh, I'll probably retire by then, so it won't affect me!" Sure thing, pal... ;D

Beware of the UBI idea: https://2020.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/

It may sound good in theory, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Who told you that the Elites will pay you forever, just to play video games, eat McDonalds and smoke crack? According to Harari, most people are "useless eaters".

It makes zero sense for the Elites to feed 8 billion people, even though they will need A LOT LESS thanks to AI/robot automation (yeah, it's the cold harsh truth that nobody wants to admit).

Don't be so gullible and better start thinking what you would do if you were in their position: would you feed so many people, just because it sounds "noble" and "humanitarian"?

The Elites are not humanitarian at all, I'm afraid... ::)

UBI will be provided with CBDC, which means social credit score & carbon credits will become mandatory. Total control, enslavement, surveillance. There is no "free" lunch. Beware of the strings attached!

From my own experience, rich guys are usually the stingiest ones.
By the way, US healthcare system is the worst healthcare system that exists in this world. Doctors and Clinics have a legal right to rob you, they can ask you for as much money as they want. The Insulin accident already answers how messed up their HC is.

By the way, I don't think it's a good idea to forgive unpaid loans. That basically means that the honest, hard-working people to probably said no to a lot of things in order to pay loans, are just dickheads and the other part, who had fun and didn't pay loans, are more privileged. I prefer proof-of-work over proof-of-laziness.

This attitude is what I hate the most! Is it good that landlords earn thousands of dollars from single apartment while doing nothing and living a luxury life? Where is the product created? No, one just exploits another person. The Soviet Union had this great system: If you were willing to work in a company for ten years, you would get an apartment. That's why there is very high home ownership in post-soviet states.
Also, about eating, what about if KFC lowers food prices and increases wages? This way, I'll be able to keep eating 5 times a week and their employees won't feel like slaves, while this company will still be able to run profitable business. But no, people like you, come and say that we should live tight-fisted instead of protesting super high profits that businesses make and the way they exploit their employees.

I have a question: Am I a bad person if I manage to avoid taxes? Keep in mind that politicians, that you elect and see every day, lie to you and earn money not only from taxes you pay but from other dark sides. When you see them, you want to take selfies, instead of protesting what they do and punching them in faces for everything bad that they do.

It's very hard even today to get a job via uni degree. I know a lot of guy who finished great universities with high GPI and struggle to find a job in their profession, instead, are forced to do shit jobs. That's the problem, we have a lot of people with uni degree, that number isn't really necessary but there is a huge demand on trades skills, we have a huge deficit there. There is a huge demand on plumbers in Ireland, I mean, the demand is so high that one can easily earn up to 100K Euro net. Can you imagine 100K euro net annual salary in Europe? Can you imagine? Yes, that's possible for plumbers in Ireland. But people still go in university, then work in KFC, MacDonalds, Supermarkets, Parcel Delivery, Food Delivery, Uber, etc.

People who become an AI engineers, are very talented and the very successful STEM students. There will always be a demand on very intelligent people, the problem here is an average or slightly above-average citizen.

Nice long term graph, value fell for about 70 years on the turn of the 17th century and I presume this was something to do with a larger amount of silver being mined with Dollar also linked to that metal at that time.  Also sterling is famously named after silver so perhaps we can assume the influence of silver used to be far greater.    Is this amount of 'degrade' as bad as what we have recently and despite a solid link, it happened anyway as the world changed its ability to mine and refine its elements.   I think we are far worse now with the rapid change from comparative 20 to near 0 even though the value back appears to be a third after falling its less harsh percentage terms and even so you could exchange for silver which has its uses in a solid way.
  Despite the variation up or down the currency held its value from start till over 300 years later, that is a golden age compared all the other regimes that have operated money.  We cannot expect the same again to occur.

maybe a small few can but it's not enough to be a significant employer of the work force. not many people make 300k per year. even 100k is like in the top 10% of income earners I would think.

it's called automation and this isn't the first time it has happened. if you're against automation then you're against progress. simple as that.

the reason it sounds good in theory is because it IS good in theory. it's good in practice too. i mean if they can pay some households $2000 per month for food stamps i mean who eats that much food? then they can surely afford to pay every person $1000 each month.

no one told me, it's a conclusion i came to. we have alot of patchwork programs that pay people some type of universal basic income already here in the usa like food stamps, social security, etc, etc. just replace all of those things with everyone getting the same universal basic income and be done with it. that way everyone is treated equally.

it makes alot of sense actually. hopefully someone that it doesn't make sense to would get booted out of office though and replaced with a more compassionate version of themself.

I wouldn't be letting thousands of people flow across the border and paying them when I could be taking care of american citizens who are struggling, I'll tell you that much.

I'll take the string anyday. Just tell me where and when to sign up. You don't get anything for free. If the government wants to pay me a Universal Basic Income then I need to comply with their rules and wishes too if they are not too unreasonable. Just like someone on disability might need to go in for a checkup every so often just to make sure they still really can't work...

IKR? It's called degree inflation. ;)

I believe in the concept of scarcity (because scarcity gives value, assuming there's sufficient demand), not printing tons of worthless papers (whether we're talking about fiat currency or university degrees).

Most people don't get it, though... they believe abundance is a good thing. :o

Abundance is a good thing in food and energy (if we want them to be cheap & affordable), nowhere else.

If you (as an employer) also want cheap & affordable workers (they can be considered a commodity too), then it totally makes sense to hyperinflate university degrees. 8)

Not just in Ireland.

Becoming a plumber is not very prestigious, but besides that, it's also a very hard job... sometimes you have to deal with pipes full of shit. :)

Then better be prepared to eat bugs (https://i.imgur.com/rwOgiLX.png)... :o they'll tell you there's a climate/food crisis going on, so we can no longer have normal food on our tables. ::)

Beggars can't be choosers. You know that, right?

as though that's ever happened before in the united states. i doubt it.

typically UBI doesn't come with any type of restrictions on how it could be used. so someone could probably even take their government pension and buy bitcoin with it sometimes.  :o

While quantitative easing remains a plausible option, but it is unlikely to happen during the year 2023. As FED has decided to leave interest rates unchanged in their previous meeting  due to consistent downward trend in inflation. However, as FED chairman hinted that in his policy statement that two more interest rates hikes are possible during the year 2023. Therefore, FED may choose to increase interest rate by 0.25%  in their next meeting scheduled to be held during the current week. Let's watch and wait, how the situation unfolds in the next 72 hrs.

Oh really? Do you know for whom your beloved Biden is working for? ::)

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/emissions-fell-during-lockdown-keep-that-way
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/emissions-have-fallen-this-year-make-permanent/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/cars-planes-trains-aviation-co2-emissions-transport

CBDC will come with restrictions (social credit score, carbon credits). Have you been living under a rock or what? :o

If you think it will be that easy to buy BTC with CBDC on Binance or Coinbase (for example), I have a bridge to sell ya... ;D

I suggest to watch this video, if you want to be mentally prepared:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWkepoLUZfs

I don't expect the next QE to happen before late 2024 at the earliest (just in time for the US elections -coincidentally- ;D).

The inflation won't be stabilized around the 2% target until 2025...

To me it seems the stars are aligning for yet another spectacular bull run in 2+ years from now.

Although it is difficult to predict outcome of financial events with 100% accuracy, however I agree with your opinion that QE is possible by the end of 2024 which is coincidently election year in USA as well as anticipated event of Bitcoin halving . Hence, these both important events can serve as significant factors potentially triggering uptrend in both Stocks and crypto currencies markets.

he's working for the democratic party. that's why he let all the immigrants come in so they could vote democrat.


all of the trial UBI programs I've seen have no restrictions on how people use the money.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jun/04/universal-basic-income-of-1600-pounds-a-month-to-be-trialled-in-england

A universal basic income of £1,600 a month is to be trialled in England for the first time in a pilot programme.

Thirty people will be paid a lump sum without conditions each month for two years and will be observed to understand the effects on their lives.



https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2023/07/02/guaranteed-income-ann-arbor-universal-basic-income/70360484007/

Ann Arbor recently joined the growing list of cities across the nation exploring what happens when lower income families receive a steady stream of cash in their pockets each month — no strings attached.



i'm not even sure why someone receiving a nice UBI would even care about wasting their time sending their important money off to some untrusted third party to buy something that they don't even know why they need it. they're going to get more money the next month so they might as well spend what they have right now rather than gambling is the way I see it...

i've already seen enough sci fi movies. nothing new there most likely!

CBDC doesn't exist (yet), it's a trial phase with the already existing fiat currency (hence no social credit score/carbon credits).

Learn the difference...

It's strange though to find people who would love UBI/CBDC on a Bitcoin forum! :o

Any WEF/Schwab lovers here too? ;D

what's wrong with everyone having a base income and anyone that wants more out of life can work for it?
 ;D
like say everyone gets paid 1800 pounds every month in london or wherever. they won't be driving around a lambo. but let's say they really want one. then they can go to work. if there's any jobs available that is. the AI thing might be displacing a few folks out of jobs

Alright...

Wanna wait until 2030 and then tell me if CBDC/UBI/social credit score/carbon credits were a good thing after all? ::)

I can wait, don't worry. Bitcoin has taught me to have patience. 8)

ps1: By 2030 70% of the population (5.6 billion people) will be jobless.

ps2: Lambo and carbon credits are contradictory, but I get it, it's hard to understand what I mean right now.

Indeed, trust is the fundamental factor in functioning of Banking system. The confidence of general public in a bank can significantly impact its stability and growth.
The cause of consecutive collapse of Banks in USA could be attributed to aggressive increase in interest rates policy of FED. This Money tightening policy has led to unfavorable business environment and made challenging for banks to survive. This situation will exert pressure on FED to review its current policy and make necessary adjustments.

All eyes are on Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement today, it is hoped that pause in interest rates will continue to reduce some pressure on banking sector.

FOMC meeting & decision in a few hours. A 0.25 hike is expected which will no doubt cause a bunch of weak hands to start dumping bitcoin for no reason at all. I don’t know why people react to this kind of news by selling, maybe it’s mostly whale behaviour, preying on weak hands & using it to their advantage to gobble up cheap coins. Either way, expect a dump today when Powell announces another hike. Hopefully it’s the last one for a long time.

Good for people (not just whales) who want to buy BTC at a cheaper price.

You are correct, Bitcoin price  is likely to be very volatile after the interest rate decision announcement. This economic event can provide good opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at around $28,500 which is its strong support. Let's keep our fingers crossed and wait, how Bitcoin market plays out in the next one hour.

but yet we have FICO scores/credit ratings. I guess you disagree with those too yet society has managed to survive in spite of them. lucky us.

well surely by 2030 bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 without a doubt right? but what if it only has the same buying power as $30,000 of it has today. did you really win? or did other people just lose but how could they lose if their using their UBI to buy things every month?

are you going to be one of those 70%? then hope the government is nice and gives you some money every month. it's the right thing to do.  ;D

You're clearly in the wrong forum if you believe Bitcoin will fail.

I suggest to visit cbdctalk.org or ubitalk.org. ;D

i'm not saying i think bitcoin will go to 0 but why does it have to appreciate in price above where it is now in order for it to succeed? i would think a more rational measure of success would be on its different use cases of which I only know one. holding it hoping the price goes up. i think some people might actually use it to transact such as buying things but i would say they are a minority. have you ever bought anything with bitcoin?  :o

Depends on how you define success. If you think global adoption will mean success, then it probably has a long way to succeed. If you need it to transact online, privately, permissionessly, etc., then it has already succeeded.

I'm getting the impression most of us in here would prefer the former, than merely staying an irrelevant, Internet currency, because we're financially invested. But please take a moment and appreciate what it has already offered to us.

Actually, I think the fact that a minority uses it to buy stuff, proves itself as superior money.

Well, let's just say BlackRock is onto something:

https://twitter.com/IIICapital/status/1683890825917345812

 :o :o :o

It's a given that even a simple, low-priority, on-chain transaction (https://mempool.space/) will cost 4 digits (in terms of USD, not sats) by then.

I'm sure the market will find scaling solutions for cheap transactions IF bitcoin becomes so valuable, but I'm not sure if it will be Lightning or something else.

Who knows?

Nobody knew back in 1998 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/15abil9/bitcoin_right_now_has_300340_million_users/) (56k dial-up/IRC era) that we would now have Facebook, Instagram, Tik Tok etc.

Either way, it makes total sense to have even small fractions of BTC.

or just invest in some bitcoin stock or etf. same thing. then you don't even have to worry about losing your private keys.

Oops:

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-federal-reserve-has-910-billion-in-losses-147959/

 :o ::)

yeah but the federal reserve they don't answer to anybody so i would think that number is just mainly symbolic because they don't have to pay anything back. but they can just print more money. they can't be audited apparently is what i heard. if you could summarize the article that would be great.

but here's a question: if someone has a bank account and savings but doesn't believe in the us dollar then arent they a hypocrite kind of because theyre trying to save/amass something that is being printed by the government. why would you save something that is being printed? unless you believe in it. so i expect people that are big believers in bitcoin should not have big bank accounts.

And here we go again:


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/briefing/government-shutdown.html

What’s next
The outcome remains uncertain. The Republican faction might ultimately accept small, symbolic spending cuts and claim victory. Or the government might shut down this weekend.

That would be like a double whammy with the migrant situation going on. But I guess as long as they can keep paying each migrant their $2200 per month or whatever it is, I guess that's ok if Federal employees don't get paid.  :o

Government shutdown avoided for now, which can only mean one thing! Money printer goes BRRRRRR:


$1 trillion in a month is absolute insanity. Here's a post I made two years ago:


The debt is growing exponentially quickly. And check out this graph of the interest payments we are paying on that debt: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA
3 years ago it was $500 billion. Now we are about to hit $1 trillion a year, just on paying the interest.

Anyone who thinks this is sustainable is crazy.

At best I expect the USD to last until 2030, no later than that.

It will probably collapse around 2026-2027, due to Taiwan's invasion and the collective West imposing sanctions on Made in China products (which will trigger hyperinflation Weimar-style)...

you have to print more money to take care of all the migrants. don't you?


well, take $12 billion per year for nyc and multiply that by 50 states, we don't even have to include alaska. that gets you to over half a trillion dollars just for right now for supporting migrants. now to you that might be peanuts but what happens if 200 million migrants end up making it in before we close the borders? what happens if we never close them?  :o

you said that before this migrant thing even happened. how much more so now that it has?

they'll just make social security checks bigger to account for the lowering value of the usd. mcdonalds workers will be complaining about only making $35 per hour. it's just not enough to live on...

This increase in federal debt has almost nothing to do with the migrant crisis.

The $12 billion figure for New York is over 3 years, and will not be reflected to the same level across the other states. But even so, we just added $275 billion to the debt in a single day. The money for migrants pales in comparison.

We've added another $33 billion since I made that last post ~24 hours ago.

well it's not helping things. and i'm not so sure it has "nothing to do with it". it has everything to do with it and over the coming years it will have even more to do with it. just watch and see. watch them print more and more money.

chicago ? maybe you didn't hear about chicago. once chicago is full it will be another city and so on and so forth.

maybe right now it does but what if there was 100 million migrants. each one costs you $20,000 per year. you do the math.

that's nothing compared to 100 million times 20,000.

 :o

The ironic thing is migrants might easily be more of a benefit then cost to an economy providing they are able to work and provide a supply of labor to successful business.  China now has a falling working population which has lost them an advantage they had previously.  Its messy perhaps because it should be known and trained labor entering am economy should be done properly but its not new.

   The debt will be exponential because the worth of each dollar is becoming less.  Also alot of the money spent is not as effective in moving the economy as last time it was spent, the danger it ends up doing nothing at all and mostly over taxes business.   Inflation is a tax is a succinct fair statement imo

that is highly doubtful. but we'll see. meanwhile someone keeps posting the following on different youtube videos:


Approximately 25 million people are still left behind in Venezuela that will gradually make their way toward the Southern border due to word of mouth, in addition to over 600 Million from surrounding countries, that will be encouraged to come and finally end up in New York, Chicago, Denver and other cities around the US. There are also thousands of unwanted pregnancies developing as we speak, by among the ones already here, and pregnant women, prior to their arrival, for the objective of obtaining free food, medical care, and financial assistance among other governmental benefits. Allowing them work, will not give any relief to the already existing financial burden on the U.S government, you ask WHY? because, once they earn any little money, they will prefer to pocket the money, and not want to spend it on personal expenses, nor shelter, pretending they are still broke as they will just continue to blend in with the other asylum seekers to continue receiving all benefits, they've been receiving from the start. Remember they have already been spoiled with free handouts that are so easily given to them! Why pay for food and shelter now? all they will do is pocket the money, and send it back home to trigger more to come. As far as the national guard being sent out, they are really being sent out there to greet and assist the invaders with their luggage, to make sure they make it through the border crossing safe and sound, right?  GOT IT!!



get ready to kiss your social security benefits goodbye folks if you live in the usa. that will all go to supporting the migrants. for sure. plus alot more than that.

imagine what 600 million people would do to the country. it would be like the government had to turn football stadiums into living arenas. no more NFL on monday nights!  :o

Depends. If the speed at which they enter is too fast there are going to be more problems than benefits and to think otherwise is to be too naïve. Migrants are not going to find work from day one, but they are going to need food, shelter, and in some cases medical care. Besides, do you think that if a lot of them come in, it will help the wages of the working class to go up? On the contrary: there will be more people looking for those jobs and they will come from countries where they are paid much less. Many employers are happy with immigration because they pay them less and even under the table.

I don't think the mayor of New York, a Democrat, has suddenly become a racist:

In Escalation, Adams Says Migrant Crisis ‘Will Destroy New York City’ (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/07/nyregion/adams-migrants-destroy-nyc.html)


I was reading the thread and was thinking about this. We have to factor in real inflation, that as outrageous as it is that debt is increasing, we also have to think that the unit of measure, the dollar, is worth less and less.

I wanted to ask if dollars are continuously being printed and you said that in the last 3 years they have printed almost the same as 14 years ago.
So why is the dollar price against other currencies still said to be stable, even strengthening in several other currencies, for example in my country the USD has strengthened by almost 10% from the beginning of this year until now.
Does this indicate that all countries are also doing the same thing as America is doing?
any opinion would be appreciated.

There are other factors to consider. If printing money was directly proportional to inflation, then inflation for USD would be >10% rather than 3%. You need to consider where that printed money is going, who is benefiting from it, and what they are doing it with it. If we print $1 million and a bank just takes that a sits on it, then it has little effect on the economy and on inflation. If we print $1 million and a bank loans it to someone to start a business, who then uses that money to hire five people and pay their wages, who then use that money to pay their rent, and the landlords then use that money to buy their groceries, and the stores use that money to pay their suppliers, and the suppliers use that money to buy gas for their trucks, and the gas station uses that money to pay their employees, and so on, then that money has a much larger effect on the economy.

Exchange rate is based more on the strength of the economies (and future predictions about those economies) than on the total monetary supply.

Yes, this is also true, and many countries are printing at a faster rate than the US. Look at countries experiencing hyperinflation, such as Venezuela for example.

that's why they're going to be putting up facilities to house large numbers of them. i think that's what chicago is going to be doing. sounds like a winner. it gets them off the streets and out of places they don't belong like someone's ymca. at least in the facilities they can get food and medical care and shelter from the winter. they'll just bus them there. yes it's going to cost the taxpayers but as o_e_l_e_o said it's not as big a part of the budget as other things. but it still could be big.  :o

Not exactly. What it means is that in those countries printing is even worse. If you are doing 110 kilometres per hour accelerating to 120 kilometres per hour, it may seem like you are going fast but if you are overtaken by a Lamborghini doing 200 kilometres per hour and accelerating to 300 kilometres per hour, your speed will seem quite stable.

In the same way most countries, which have weaker currencies than the dollar, print more and at a faster rate than the FED does, hence the devaluation of currencies against the dollar. The stability of the dollar does not depend on the fact that it does not devalue, but that compared to the rest it does so at a much slower rate.

Not necessarily. I think more likely what it might mean is that people trust the USA for some reason. No matter how misplaced that confidence and sense of trust might be. We're in a house of cards in reality which is likely to fall down at any time!

now I know why the currency in my country continues to weaken against the USD, and also as you said if 1 million is turned into business it will have a good impact on the economy.
but here it doesn't seem like that, they print but hold most of the money (rich people).
maybe they are waiting for the price of any commodity to fall even further, thus making the economy sluggish and also our government recently banned TikTok shops because they don't pay taxes, and a lot of money flows out of the country, because people who shop there buy goods. straight from China.
because money here always flows out, there is less money circulating inside.

jobs reports still unexpectedly good

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-shows-pace-161718309.html?

dan.burrows@futurenet.com (Dan Burrows)
Fri, October 6, 2023 at 12:17 PM EDT·7 min read
A "blockbuster" jobs report keeps the Fed's higher for longer interest policy on track.

A September jobs report that showed the pace of hiring sizzled last month keeps the Federal Reserve on track to maintain its higher for longer policy on interest rates, experts say.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls expanded by a surprising 336,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, or the strongest rate of job creation since January. Economists were looking for the addition of about 170,000 new jobs last month.

This means + 0.25 or + 0.50 in Nov

I have a few friends in banking they think 2024 rates will stay high +5% or more for all of 2024.

These high rates are very good for Long Term Care companies in the USA.


In dec 2021 the top five long term care companies were all in financial trouble. As they make their profits via fed bonds. Now that we have had 2 straight years of rising rates those five companies are all doing better. One more year at +5% will help them further.

The U.S. is unique of r it Long term care insurance market in that it is huge as the government

does not do much for old disabled people with dementia and Alzheimers so people pay for private insurance.

these higher rates are a big bailout for those companies. The US does not want to tap these companies out so they periodically do a session of long rate raises to bail them out.

Think of USA wealth like musical chairs. 10 chairs and 8 buckets of money raise rates the money slides to another chair. So far so good until we crash again.

Nope. FED has printed more money than any other country.

USD doesn't devalue that much compared to other currencies, because it's required for: 1) SWIFT transfers, 2) petro-dollar (oil payments).

Remove those 2 factors and the dollar will hyperinflate to oblivion.

SWIFT will become irrelevant due to Bitcoin and the petro-dollar will become irrelavant due to renewable energy/ESG requirements.

USD doesn't have any future beyond 2030.

This sounds rather contradictory.

Less money circulating inside reduces inflation, it shouldn't increase it. Which country is that, if I may ask?

US does the same thing in a sense: tons of dollars circulate outside (i.e. bonds held by China, Japan).

If those dollars enter the US territory, a Big Mac will easily cost $100. ;D

not because of bitcoin but because there's some effort underway to replace the SWIFT system with something else at least outside of the USA I recall seeing something about that recently but i couldn't relocate the article.

not even for buying big macs?

and mcdonald's employees will be making? $500 per hour at the very least.

just think about it. if some blockchain alternative to swift pops up then that would take care of things that FedNow couldn't so USA residents would never have a need to use bitcoin to "send money" to anyone. as long as they had a bank account but who doesn't have that? you can't survive without that.  :o

If you aren't convinced yet that wages don't increase in the same rate as with cost of living, then I don't know what to say. Sure, wages have increased slightly. In my country, minimum wage is 780 EUR as of 2023. A decade ago it was 586 EUR (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-7-2013-002029_EL.html). But, let's have a look on inflation: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/core-inflation-rate. Surprisingly, in 2013 it was an all time low since 2010 (at -4%!!!). Right now, we're experiencing a market that has went into two years of serious inflation rates.  

- Let's have a look on food inflation: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/food-inflation. Yep, 10% increase comparably to last year.
- How about CPI transportation: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/cpi-transportation. I guess we're heading in an all time high there.
- Housing: https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/housing-index. It's nearly linear since 2020. I'm looking forward to know when we'll hit the ceiling there.

But, yeah. 200 EUR extra income can cover all that. Kudos to the governments.  ::)

in Indonesia, I don't know whether what I said is true or not, I just expressed my personal opinion.
100$ for a burger sounds pretty scary  ;D

i don't know what governments you're talking about buddy, but the USA ain't one of them. Federal minimum wage here hasn't changed since like 2009. And its unliveable. and yet we have tons of bank holidays where federal workers get paid for playing golf. go figure. the government here doesn't raise minimum wage ever.

maybe OP would consider my idea: cut out the 11 bank holidays where federal workers get paid for sitting on their bums and use that to pay down the budget deficit...

If you're going to say that, I hope you'll provide a link to support it, because I doubt very much that the USA has printed more than Venezuela, Argentina or Zimbabwe.

Venezuela to introduce 1-million-bolivar bill as inflation persists (https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-economy-idUSL2N2L401H)

14m bolivars for a chicken: Venezuela hyperinflation explained (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/venezuela-bolivars-hyperinflation-banknotes)


That is only partly true, or partly false, because having the highest GDP in the world is just as important, if not more important, than the two factors you mention.


LMAO. I've heard that one before, although this time it might actually happen. As in the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Don't worry, though. CEO pay has gone up hundreds of times. And that's all that really matters, right!? ::)

So your solution to the fact that wages haven't kept up with inflation is to take away 2 weeks of PTO from federal employees?

How exactly does that help? Make everyone work more hours for less money? Make them just survive and no more, and have no disposable income to buy anything other than the bare essentials? That's not exactly a route to a thriving economy, which is what is actually needed in order to bring down the deficit.

This thread is getting more and more off topic as time goes on so I may lock it soon.

It doesn't have a future as a global reserve currency, that's what I meant. British pound still exists, but it's no longer what it used to be. Right?

Something else will replace it, nothing lasts forever:

https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*RUhaQn8pvVs0ovSX.png

https://www.cryptocharlie.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Evolution-of-World-Reserve-Currencies.jpg

no of course not. those are 2 separate issues...

https://www.cbo.gov/topics/employment-and-labor-markets/federal-personnel

The federal government employs about 2¼ million military personnel (of whom about 1 million are reservists) and about 2¼ million civilian personnel (of whom nearly 60 percent work for the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security). CBO assesses the pay and benefits of the nation’s armed forces and civil servants as well as proposals to change the compensation of those workers.


But paying 5 million people 11 days wage while they don't even work every single year makes me wonder if any of them are really necessary in the first place and how many of them could we get rid of and still things would run smoothly. 5 million times 11 days times say $100 per day. You do the math. That's money we could use to pay down the government debt. $5 billion.

I want to see the federal government actually raising the minimum wage to $25 per hour.

Fair enough but all these fiscal issues have more to do with unfair treatment of peoples wages than I think alot of realize...

Feds now have a new war action to figure in. I am guessing a strong move up. 0.50%

As for wages. New York went to 20 bucks with built in cost of living numbers added.

All that does is weaken the middle class by making the poor get more and the middle stay still.

If you are going to give a nice raise to the poor you need to raise the tax on the people earning 500k.

Then the poor gain on both the middle and on the rich.

If you don’t sweat the rich you are simply wiping out the middle class.

So given that on the last day last week we added another $35 billion to the debt, then in a year we would save approximately 3.5 hours worth of debt. All just to hammer some working class people a bit more. God forbid they get any PTO! Probably worth pointing out that most other developed nations give their workers somewhere in the region of 30 days a year.

You are barking up the wrong tree, here. The deficit and the debt will not be solved by squeezing workers ever harder and making average people poorer and poorer. We need much larger scale institutional changes, which will never happen precisely because they would not benefit the people at the top responsible for making such decisions.

For example, we discussed this earlier in this thread:
If we moved to a healthcare system which cut out insurers and useless middlemen, we wouldn't save billions a year, but trillions. Every other developed nation manages it - why not us? Because our politicians are bought by medical insurance companies.

I don't have any problem with people getting paid time off (PTO as you seem to affectionately call it) as long as their EMPLOYER pays for it and not the taxpayers. And I take issue with you calling federal employees "working class people" they get more benefits than people that work in the private sector more raises everything more. They are privileged class, not working class and I dont like them getting paid for not working since the taxpayers are paying for it.

why should only federal employees get paid for not working. why can't fast food employees or people that drive for uber? why put federal employees into a privileged position and then force me to pay for their holidays?

well again, federal employees are not poor or average. they are above average income they get all the benefits and everything why should I the taxpayer have to foot the bill for them to celebrate Martin Luther King day?

well so you're saying the leaders don't want to erase the budget deficit and national debt? well if that's a fact then why even discuss the national debt problem at all since it will never be solved. but the way i see it, every 5 or 10 billion you can shave off helps. assuming we want to erase the national debt. maybe that's not a safe assumption though, apparently according to you.


so your whole thing is, let's not make small changes because so far we haven't been able to make larger ones. that doesn't seem very rational  >:(

Spoiler alert: it's mathematically impossible to erase national debts. It's an exercise in futility.

Think about it for a second (how the fiat Ponzi pyramid works): FED lends you $100 and expects you to pay back $105 after 1 year. Or a lot more after 20-40 years.

Where are you going to find the extra money to pay the interest? That amount of money doesn't exist. You only got $100. Where are you going to find the extra $5?

You will have to raise your prices accordingly, no matter what you sell (products or services).

And what about people who buy from you? They're also going to raise their prices.

This is what causes inflation. It's a HUGE pyramid:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfHEtlJU4AA7lLg.jpg

In reality inflation is not really needed (a HUGE lie being perpetuated by 99.99% of economists -> there's a "consensus" about it), because tech progress means everything becomes cheaper (technology is deflationary):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpSFEiVXEAI6TxF?format=jpg&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkOP5ezUcAgUs79?format=jpg&name=large

Eventually more money will be injected in the economy via issuing debt. FED keeps printing more and more money. Because everyone and their mom is a debt slave.

For me this was one of the biggest lessons Bitcoin offered me. Because it was designed to be a debt-free alternative.

I'm surprised you haven't figured it out yet (were you indeed born in 1955?).

Save yourself and stop trying to save the masses. 90% of them are too dumb/clueless to realize they're caught up in a legalized Ponzi scheme (because that's what fiat money + interest is).

Madoff's pyramid wasn't legal, but the fiat dollar is a state-sanctioned Ponzi pyramid scheme.

Do fast food workers not deserve PTO as well? What is with your race to the bottom, to make everyone except the super rich suffer? Perhaps we should be looking to improve the conditions for all workers, rather than slashing the meager benefits that already exist for a handful of workers?

Because it affects us all when our debt hits 300% of GDP, our economy collapses, and the USD becomes worthless.

My point is you can make all the small changes you want to the detriment of 99% of the population, and all you will do is slow the speed the of debt increase and never actually halt or reverse it. If you want to actually address the problem and not just delay it, then we need much larger scale changes.

that's up to burger king or mcdonalds to decide not for me. and i won't have an opinion on how they run their private business.

i think you're going off on a tangent. we shouldn't be trying to justify paying federal employees on federal holidays by saying the justification for it is because they are not "super rich". most of them probably make over $60,000 per year and i bet none of them is anywhere near the federal poverty level which is a joke in itself. the federal poverty level guidelines should be $35,000 for a single person. not $11,000 or whatever ridiculous number it is. call that number what it really is : the homeless level.  :o

federal workers shouldn't be in a priviledged position. if they get paid for federal holidays then everyone should. but guess what everyone doesnt.


then start being more willing to consider things that could reduce that debt even if they don't reduce it all the way down as far as you might like. if they have a lasting impact on spending that's what matters. erasing 5 billion per year (maybe more like 10) might not seem like it could have any impact but if you come up with 9 other similar sized reductions we're already at a tenth of a trillion dollars. you have to start somewhere and you're not going to start out by one big swoop necessarily. if you're waiting for that to happen then you may be disappointed.


federal workers are not 99% of the population. i don't know what percent they are but i bet they make up less than 25% of the workforce. probably only 12% would be my guess. and we're supposed to feel sorry for them with all their high salaries and fringe benefits if they can't get paid on juneteenth for not working? no thanks.

In the end we see the steady increase in debt that we can see on sites such as World Debt Clocks  (https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html) is a logical and expected consequence of the fiat system. The alternative is bankruptcy. When the $105 has to be paid back but only $100 has been printed, there are only two options: when the money cannot be paid back, either bankruptcies or to print more, refinance and make the ball bigger, devaluing the purchasing power of the money more and more as a consequence.

Let us not forget that bitcoin was created precisely as an alternative system to this.

Completely agree that a salary of $11,000 is almost unlivable, but let's not fool ourselves in to thinking $60,000 is rich by any means.

Which again, is nothing. We've added another $40 billion to the debt since my last post. Even with 10 such proposals you are making, you delay the inevitable by a day or two, at most.

Don't you see that's what the government want? Worker against worker. Focus all your anger on some other person who is just slightly better off than you are. Never mind the multinational corporations evading billions in tax, never mind the banks laundering hundreds of billions, never mind the trillions wasted in our ridiculous healthcare or military budgets.

Yup, we can't possibly let the billionaire banks fail. Money printer goes BRRRR to bail them out, because who cares about the average Joe getting poorer and poorer as this goes on.

I've lost track of where the FED might be however I think its a given they will always operate an easy money policy.  The present 'high' rate rises are surprising but temporary is my take, purely because the government cannot afford to service its debt at this level.  Calculate the interest payable long term if these rate levels were forever and the interest exceeds the amounts spent on defence and other large items so far as I know.
  That will be too much, the far easier road to take is always the rates are lower then inflation and this is how debt is repaid.



Primary dealers are banks who create the demand for the treasury debt sales.  Last thing we can afford is any lack of demand for the national debt or it'd not be the FED who decides the rates but the market; ultimately that is what always happens.


I'll give a source (https://youtu.be/4hQ1HvwaeTk?t=151), any time macro economics is mentioned people defer to the genius of government because its seemingly above the station of any person to discuss the immense gravitas of generational effects.   Im no phd but also its not impossible to decipher imo:   https://youtu.be/4hQ1HvwaeTk?t=151

i have a theory that alot of crime is committed because of people not being treated equal. want to eliminate crime? then start with treating all people equal and they won't have a reason to rob or steal from other people. or hurt them. that's the way the human nature is. i didn't invent it, the human nature and it's not my fault that is how people are hardwired but its the governments fault if they don't recognize that and do something about it.

my solution to the military budget is to get rid of 3 of the armed forces and only have one. we really don't need all 4. for healthcare, i don't have a solution to that other than to outlaw insurance companies. but no president would have the balls to do that.

and about "multinational corporations evading billions in tax", what you do for that is outlaw multinational corporations in the usa. they can only employ people who live in the usa and cannot do business outside of the usa. and they pay taxes on all their income here in the usa. that would open up more jobs for americans as a side benefit.

i know these things seem impossible to do they are very serious problems as i know you agree so serious steps need to be done to solve them.

it will meander along til it collapses. The ultra rich will hide behind safe houses and survival caves. Then they will rebuild it all again.

Look the handwriting is pretty much on the wall. A huge fucking disaster worldwide by 2100 seems certain.

I am lucky to be 66 as I may simply age out and die thus miss the crash out.

BTW +0.50% looks like a mortal lock.

And how are you going to enforce equality? Communism tried this and failed. Maybe they'll try again. (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/could-capitalism-need-some-marxism-to-survive-the-4th-industrial-revolution/)

Was Steve Jobs equal with the Foxconn worker who assembled iPhones?

2100 is too far away. Perhaps you meant 2030 (https://brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/)?

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1713908790725107939

Roman Empire vibes anyone? ::)

It seems History hasn't taught us enough yet... maybe it's time to repeat the same mistake.

we are far past what it looks like. ie a few people make decisions and millions suffer.

well, if i was all powerful you mean? that would be easy. i would sieze everyone's bank accounts into one big bank account, require each living human being to get their iris scanned using worldcoin and then divide up that big bank account equally among all the real humans. i would also eliminate traditional real estate, demolish it all. then build identical living quarters for everyone. no one would have anything different from anyone else.

doesn't mean we couldn't try again.  :D

right. and in my ideal situation if i was all powerful, you know that type of inequality would never exist. for better OR for worse...i'm sure some people would hate it but that's how it goes. i might even hate it but that's how it would go i guess.

You sound like Klaus Schwab (https://twitter.com/mattgubba/status/1560529318857609217):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4PYQ-1XEAM2ib9?format=jpg&name=large

 ::) :o