Fed on brink of fifth(?) round of quantitative easing

[LoyceV]

It's like they'll never stop printing.

Bingo. This is normal now. The latest balance sheet shows they've printed another $100 billion since I made this thread a few days ago.

The only way to pay interest on all debts is by creating more and more money.

[o_e_l_e_o]

The only way to pay interest on all debts is by creating more and more money.

Yup. Just the interest payments on our debt cost us half a trillion dollars a year. And since debt is increasing, interest payments will increase too. It won't be long before interest payments become one of the largest outgoings of the government's budget. And what happens then? When we pay more on interest than we do on military or healthcare? How much money do we have to print then? How worthless does the dollar become? Or do we just renege on our national debts and let the whole thing collapse?

Either way, the outlook for fiat is bleak.

[cryptosize]

And of course with Bitcoin it would be nearly impossible to print so much money to fund wars (well, unless you're Satoshi and you want to donate your 1m BTC stash).

Satoshi returning and moving any of their stash does not equate to new bitcoin being printed, though. We will never breach the limit of 21 million.

"Donating his stash" means "printing more BTC" to you?

The only way to pay interest on all debts is by creating more and more money.

Yup. Just the interest payments on our debt cost us half a trillion dollars a year. And since debt is increasing, interest payments will increase too. It won't be long before interest payments become one of the largest outgoings of the government's budget. And what happens then? When we pay more on interest than we do on military or healthcare? How much money do we have to print then? How worthless does the dollar become? Or do we just renege on our national debts and let the whole thing collapse?

Either way, the outlook for fiat is bleak.

The debt/fiat system is a huge Ponzi pyramid.

What we witness right now is the next episode of the Great Reset series.

They will try to collapse every commercial bank out there and promote further centralization with the CBDC (totally controlled by the central bank).

[o_e_l_e_o]

"Donating his stash" means "printing more BTC" to you?

Absolutely not, which is the point I am making.

When you said "unless you're Satoshi..." I took that in reference to it being impossible to print any more bitcoin. Reading the line that I quoted from you again, perhaps your intended meaning was that bitcoin could not be used to fund wars, unless Satoshi donated their stash? I don't strictly agree with that either, though. Bitcoin can be used to fund anything, if it is owned in sufficient quantities by the "right" people. I think it is fairly likely that a number of governments around the world are holding not insignificant amounts of bitcoin.

[cryptosize]

"Donating his stash" means "printing more BTC" to you?

Absolutely not, which is the point I am making.

When you said "unless you're Satoshi..." I took that in reference to it being impossible to print any more bitcoin. Reading the line that I quoted from you again, perhaps your intended meaning was that bitcoin could not be used to fund wars, unless Satoshi donated their stash? I don't strictly agree with that either, though. Bitcoin can be used to fund anything, if it is owned in sufficient quantities by the "right" people. I think it is fairly likely that a number of governments around the world are holding not insignificant amounts of bitcoin.

I could also imagine a theoretical scenario where TSMC (the biggest and most advanced microchip manufacturer) devoted 100% of their wafer production to manufacture an obscene amount of BTC ASICs.

That way they could capture a huge share of the BTC hashrate (and maybe even perform a 51% attack if they're malicious enough).

Will they do it? Most likely not. They would have to abandon their other customers (Apple, nVidia, AMD etc.) and the global economy (totally dependent on microchips) would collapse. That will happen when China invades Taiwan either way, but that's another discussion.

So yeah, there are potential ways to fund wars with BTC, but it would be extremely difficult and counterproductive. Just like it was possible to fund wars with gold, but it's very hard to extract huge amounts of gold.

With fiat USD it's easy-peasy. And yet, you see Americans on this board being "OK" with the fact US taxpayers paid 2 trillion over 20 years to fund a failed war in Afghanistan.

Let's not just blame the FED/US government. Most citizens are pretty dumb too. An enlightened minority cannot go against the majority. At least not in democracy.

[cryptosize]

It's quite simple actually: USA should stop playing world police.

there's some situations we shouldn't stick our nose into but then others where you don't have a choice...

If you say so... you better read some history:

https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-why-rome-fell

4. Overexpansion and military overspending

At its height, the Roman Empire stretched from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the Euphrates River in the Middle East, but its grandeur may have also been its downfall. With such a vast territory to govern, the empire faced an administrative and logistical nightmare. Even with their excellent road systems, the Romans were unable to communicate quickly or effectively enough to manage their holdings. Rome struggled to marshal enough troops and resources to defend its frontiers from local rebellions and outside attacks, and by the second century, the Emperor Hadrian was forced to build his famous wall in Britain just to keep the enemy at bay. As more and more funds were funneled into the military upkeep of the empire, technological advancement slowed and Rome’s civil infrastructure fell into disrepair.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

Just don't say nobody warned you when the US empire falls...

[Smartprofit]

"Donating his stash" means "printing more BTC" to you?

Absolutely not, which is the point I am making.

When you said "unless you're Satoshi..." I took that in reference to it being impossible to print any more bitcoin. Reading the line that I quoted from you again, perhaps your intended meaning was that bitcoin could not be used to fund wars, unless Satoshi donated their stash? I don't strictly agree with that either, though. Bitcoin can be used to fund anything, if it is owned in sufficient quantities by the "right" people. I think it is fairly likely that a number of governments around the world are holding not insignificant amounts of bitcoin.

I could also imagine a theoretical scenario where TSMC (the biggest and most advanced microchip manufacturer) devoted 100% of their wafer production to manufacture an obscene amount of BTC ASICs.

That way they could capture a huge share of the BTC hashrate (and maybe even perform a 51% attack if they're malicious enough).

Will they do it? Most likely not. They would have to abandon their other customers (Apple, nVidia, AMD etc.) and the global economy (totally dependent on microchips) would collapse. That will happen when China invades Taiwan either way, but that's another discussion.

So yeah, there are potential ways to fund wars with BTC, but it would be extremely difficult and counterproductive. Just like it was possible to fund wars with gold, but it's very hard to extract huge amounts of gold.

With fiat USD it's easy-peasy. And yet, you see Americans on this board being "OK" with the fact US taxpayers paid 2 trillion over 20 years to fund a failed war in Afghanistan.

Let's not just blame the FED/US government. Most citizens are pretty dumb too. An enlightened minority cannot go against the majority. At least not in democracy.

In my opinion, TSMC has its own business mission, which is to produce the highest quality chips. 

TSMC is a unique company, because a large number of companies produce chips for modern electronics (for example, Samsung), but uncompromising quality is precisely the products of the Taiwanese company TSMC! 

Of course, such a company will not expand into the ASIC market and carry out 51 percent attacks. 

In general, if we analyze the evolution of Bitcoin, we can conclude that the first cryptocurrency is being introduced into our daily lives very slowly, using every opportunity to take a better position.  For example, today I read that the US government is one of the biggest bitcoin whales due to the large amount of confiscated bitcoins.  Therefore, after some time, Washington officials may come to the conclusion that it is more profitable for them to introduce bitcoin into the US financial system, rather than ban it. 

In my opinion, when Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he considered this process as the first stage of a new technical and financial evolution (and his idea was completely successful).

[cryptosize]

"Donating his stash" means "printing more BTC" to you?

Absolutely not, which is the point I am making.

When you said "unless you're Satoshi..." I took that in reference to it being impossible to print any more bitcoin. Reading the line that I quoted from you again, perhaps your intended meaning was that bitcoin could not be used to fund wars, unless Satoshi donated their stash? I don't strictly agree with that either, though. Bitcoin can be used to fund anything, if it is owned in sufficient quantities by the "right" people. I think it is fairly likely that a number of governments around the world are holding not insignificant amounts of bitcoin.

I could also imagine a theoretical scenario where TSMC (the biggest and most advanced microchip manufacturer) devoted 100% of their wafer production to manufacture an obscene amount of BTC ASICs.

That way they could capture a huge share of the BTC hashrate (and maybe even perform a 51% attack if they're malicious enough).

Will they do it? Most likely not. They would have to abandon their other customers (Apple, nVidia, AMD etc.) and the global economy (totally dependent on microchips) would collapse. That will happen when China invades Taiwan either way, but that's another discussion.

So yeah, there are potential ways to fund wars with BTC, but it would be extremely difficult and counterproductive. Just like it was possible to fund wars with gold, but it's very hard to extract huge amounts of gold.

With fiat USD it's easy-peasy. And yet, you see Americans on this board being "OK" with the fact US taxpayers paid 2 trillion over 20 years to fund a failed war in Afghanistan.

Let's not just blame the FED/US government. Most citizens are pretty dumb too. An enlightened minority cannot go against the majority. At least not in democracy.

In my opinion, TSMC has its own business mission, which is to produce the highest quality chips. 

TSMC is a unique company, because a large number of companies produce chips for modern electronics (for example, Samsung), but uncompromising quality is precisely the products of the Taiwanese company TSMC! 

Of course, such a company will not expand into the ASIC market and carry out 51 percent attacks. 

In general, if we analyze the evolution of Bitcoin, we can conclude that the first cryptocurrency is being introduced into our daily lives very slowly, using every opportunity to take a better position.  For example, today I read that the US government is one of the biggest bitcoin whales due to the large amount of confiscated bitcoins.  Therefore, after some time, Washington officials may come to the conclusion that it is more profitable for them to introduce bitcoin into the US financial system, rather than ban it. 

In my opinion, when Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he considered this process as the first stage of a new technical and financial evolution (and his idea was completely successful).

That's why I said it's a theoretical scenario.

There's a higher chance of BTC reaching 1m USD by June, rather than TSMC devoting their entire production for ASIC chips.

Regarding adoption (Deutsche Bank woes):

https://finbold.com/over-1200-german-banks-can-now-offer-bitcoin-trading-to-their-retail-customers/

[larry_vw_1955]

4. Overexpansion and military overspending


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuOcnGAv4oo

Just don't say nobody warned you when the US empire falls...

the roman empire didn't have bin laden to deal with. if someone brings terrorism to your country home soil then you have to go get them on theirs. that's just a given. now if it's some conflict like vietnam from what i've heard we had no business being there. so i'll go with that...

There's a higher chance of BTC reaching 1m USD by June, rather than TSMC devoting their entire production for ASIC chips.

the chances of btc reaching 1m by june is really negligible. zero actually. and i would bet any amount of money that it won't happen. they just need to give me reasonable odds like 5 to 1. i'll go get loans so i can bet the maximum too.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I could also imagine a theoretical scenario where TSMC (the biggest and most advanced microchip manufacturer) devoted 100% of their wafer production to manufacture an obscene amount of BTC ASICs.

And risk collapsing their entire company if the community then decides to fork to an ASIC-resistant mining algorithm, as many other coins have done in the past.

Let's not just blame the FED/US government. Most citizens are pretty dumb too. An enlightened minority cannot go against the majority. At least not in democracy.

It is in the banks' and the politicians' best interests to keep the population uneducated. Insert here that quote form Henry Ford about there being a revolution tomorrow if people actually understood the banking system.

if someone brings terrorism to your country home soil then you have to go get them on theirs.

The US was in the Middle East long before 9/11.

the chances of btc reaching 1m by june is really negligible. zero actually.

It's low, but it's not zero. The US defaulting on its debt could lead to very rapid devaluing of the dollar.

[larry_vw_1955]

It's low, but it's not zero. The US defaulting on its debt could lead to very rapid devaluing of the dollar.

i don't see how that could happen though. who does the usa owe money to and who is keeping track of that? in secret the government could just print more money anyway and pay off any bills...since they own the money printing machines.

[cryptosize]

And risk collapsing their entire company if the community then decides to fork to and ASIC-resistant mining algorithm, as many other coins have done in the past.

Some altcoins do that (Monero for example), but BTC is very averse to hard forks.

It's low, but it's not zero. The US defaulting on its debt could lead to very rapid devaluing of the dollar.

Agreed.

I don't know why some Americans sound like ancient Romans:

"Educated Romans did not believe that their civilization could end. Neither do most educated Europeans and Americans today. Read works from the twilight years of Roman civilization and you’ll encounter a dizzying disconnection between the hard facts—roads crumbling, trade links snapping, the imperial government holed up in Ravenna while barbarian armies surge across the landscape—and the serene conviction that these are temporary inconveniences that the Roman Empire will surely surmount once times improve a little. I suspect that people many centuries from now, when they read ancient literature from the twenty-first century, will find similar disconnects in our narratives: the gritty realities of life in a declining civilization coexisting serenely in the minds of today’s writers with the conviction that someday soon we’ll surely be headed for the stars."

- John Michael Greer

I get it, nobody wants the US economy to collapse and become poor overnight, but nothing lasts forever.

That's why we have Bitcoin, right? It's our lifeboat.

i don't see how that could happen though. who does the usa owe money to and who is keeping track of that? in secret the government could just print more money anyway and pay off any bills...since they own the money printing machines.

Sorry, but you sound even more clueless the more you post.

Do you know what M1/M2/M3 are?

Nobody can print money in secret. If it was that simple, everyone would do it.

I'm sorry, but there's no easy way out. US will pay for its mistakes, just like the ancient Rome did. Nobody is infallible, nobody is a God to fix this mess with a magic wand.

[larry_vw_1955]

Do you know what M1/M2/M3 are?

those are just imaginary things that get published every so often. what's really going on out there, no one really knows or isn't saying.

Nobody can print money in secret. If it was that simple, everyone would do it.

nobody except uncle sam. they don't care if you know or not. but probably prefer you don't. but it's definitely happening. the difference is if you try and do it using your own equipment then you'll get thrown in jail...

I'm sorry, but there's no easy way out. US will pay for its mistakes, just like the ancient Rome did. Nobody is infallible, nobody is a God to fix this mess with a magic wand.

keep repeating that. maybe that will make it come true.

[o_e_l_e_o]

who does the usa owe money to and who is keeping track of that?

The Treasury keeps track of it, and of course the people who own the debt.

About 70% of the debt is held domestically, by things like mutual funds, pension funds, insurance funds, and a variety of private individuals.
About 30% of the debt is foreign, with the largest holders being Japan and China.

in secret the government could just print more money anyway and pay off any bills...since they own the money printing machines.

When we talk about printing money, they aren't actually printing physical cash. The Fed mainly creates new money by trading Treasury securities. This isn't something that can be done in secret.

what's really going on out there, no one really knows or isn't saying.

And it doesn't bother you that the foundation of entire economy is shrouded in mystery and impossible to fully account for?

keep repeating that. maybe that will make it come true.

So what do you think will happen? The US national debt will continue to increase unchecked until eventually we are paying our entire GDP just in interest payments. What then? You think investors and institutions are going to continue to lend us money when it's abundantly clear we will never pay them back? What do you think happens when we default on trillions and trillions of dollars of debt and can't fund any government spending?

[NotATether]

$0.3 trillion new money in a week. It took them a year to take off $0.6 trillion, and they've undone half of that progress in a week. Guess it's back to normal proceedings of money printer goes brrrrr! Can't have the banks losing money now, can we! The banks must be protected at all costs. Fuck 99% of the population who are being made poorer and poorer on a daily basis. As long as the banks get endless bailouts!

Makes you glad we have Bitcoin around for the last 13 years, now doesn't it? 

It's called Modern Monetary Theory. The idea is that if some superpower government prints as much money as they like, they can ignore the macroeconomic effects of putting a drastic amount of money in circulation, as long as they are endlessly spending as they are endlessly printing money.

If they don't spend, *then* they are in big trouble. Because the prices of everything will skyrocket.

But eventually, governments who keep doing this will run out of resources to buy, especially those who print successively larger and larger batches of money at once.

[be.open]

$0.3 trillion new money in a week. It took them a year to take off $0.6 trillion, and they've undone half of that progress in a week. Guess it's back to normal proceedings of money printer goes brrrrr! Can't have the banks losing money now, can we! The banks must be protected at all costs. Fuck 99% of the population who are being made poorer and poorer on a daily basis. As long as the banks get endless bailouts!

Makes you glad we have Bitcoin around for the last 13 years, now doesn't it? 

It's called Modern Monetary Theory. The idea is that if some superpower government prints as much money as they like, they can ignore the macroeconomic effects of putting a drastic amount of money in circulation, as long as they are endlessly spending as they are endlessly printing money.

If they don't spend, *then* they are in big trouble. Because the prices of everything will skyrocket.

But eventually, governments who keep doing this will run out of resources to buy, especially those who print successively larger and larger batches of money at once.

It is also called the Magic Money Tree. It's amazing when adults in jackets and ties, on whose decisions the lives of hundreds of millions of people depend, live and act on the assumption that money does not need to be earned, it can simply be spent recklessly, because it just appears out of nowhere.

[cryptosize]

So what do you think will happen? The US national debt will continue to increase unchecked until eventually we are paying our entire GDP just in interest payments. What then? You think investors and institutions are going to continue to lend us money when it's abundantly clear we will never pay them back? What do you think happens when we default on trillions and trillions of dollars of debt and can't fund any government spending?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/123mi9k/what_happens_when_your_debt_is_the_worlds_reserve/

[coolcoinz]

I've always simplified this for myself,. especially when I was younger and did not fully understand how the money works, but it comes down to a few simple points.
Make money that everybody uses and other countries value as much as their local currencies, make sure they do what you do and you eventually end up with almost unlimited possibilities.
Say you want to buy something big, like a new weapon from another country or very expensive technology. You just print some money and give it to them, or better, you promise them money and hope they don't need it right now. They'll think they have money and be happy. You'll have the product without spending anything. What would you want more?
When someone finally calls your bluff and demand money, you'll either print it, or borrow from someone else, who think you're still wealthy and trusted.
If you run out of option, you can always print enough money or send enough soldiers to destabilize another small economy, like the US tried to do in Vietnam, Cuba, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan, and most recently in Ukraine. It's always a good way to turn heads away from your internal problems by inciting a conflict somewhere else.
 

[be.open]

I've always simplified this for myself,. especially when I was younger and did not fully understand how the money works, but it comes down to a few simple points.
Make money that everybody uses and other countries value as much as their local currencies, make sure they do what you do and you eventually end up with almost unlimited possibilities.
Say you want to buy something big, like a new weapon from another country or very expensive technology. You just print some money and give it to them, or better, you promise them money and hope they don't need it right now. They'll think they have money and be happy. You'll have the product without spending anything. What would you want more?
When someone finally calls your bluff and demand money, you'll either print it, or borrow from someone else, who think you're still wealthy and trusted.
If you run out of option, you can always print enough money or send enough soldiers to destabilize another small economy, like the US tried to do in Vietnam, Cuba, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan, and most recently in Ukraine. It's always a good way to turn heads away from your internal problems by inciting a conflict somewhere else.
 

This strategy can work well in the short term (by historical standards) and in a unipolar world, where at the top there is one hegemon with exclusive rights, and everyone else is in a subordinate vassal position. I think we are right now witnessing the agony and collapse of the Jamaican monetary system and the decline of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Beautiful.

[larry_vw_1955]

About 70% of the debt is held domestically, by things like mutual funds, pension funds, insurance funds, and a variety of private individuals.

well, i heard that even if you have fdic insurance it could take a long time to get reimbursed meanwhile you're about to run out of food and get kicked out for not paying rent. so in reality, you could end up in a bad situation anyway by trusting uncle sam even if he was not in debt.

About 30% of the debt is foreign, with the largest holders being Japan and China.

i don't get how one country "owes" another country money.

When we talk about printing money, they aren't actually printing physical cash. The Fed mainly creates new money by trading Treasury securities. This isn't something that can be done in secret.

but they are printing money and there's no way you can know how much exactly. no one can. maybe on weekends or holidays they go in and print a couple billion and give it to whoever. you wouldn't know.

And it doesn't bother you that the foundation of entire economy is shrouded in mystery and impossible to fully account for?

so then we agree that the printing presses can't be audited about how much money is coming off them?

So what do you think will happen? The US national debt will continue to increase unchecked until eventually we are paying our entire GDP just in interest payments. What then?

the government will lower the interest rates to 0 then. and if that's not enough they'll work out a repayment plan aka restructuring of debt. they might even file for bankruptcy protection so they can start the slate clean again. i'm sure there's some way they can get out of their problem. don't you?

You think investors and institutions are going to continue to lend us money when it's abundantly clear we will never pay them back?

no one needs to lend the us government money because they create the money in the first place. so they can create it instead of borrowing it. so people that lend the us government money don't make much sense to me. they don't need your money. they can print as much of it as they want.

What do you think happens when we default on trillions and trillions of dollars of debt and can't fund any government spending?

well, fighter jets are always going to be a top priority. whether manned or not, they'll keep getting developed and purchased by the armed forces. so there you go.