Bitcoin Forum

All technical and news relating to the Chinese have been pointing at btc easily reaching $400 or less. I have bought coins at an average of like $600 so I just wanted to hear the opinions of whether its not a bad idea to sell now and buy back more when it hits $400 or less.

It's safer to hold now, and buy more if it hits $400.

If I were offering you advice I would tell you not to do what you have just suggested and instead hodl all the way.

If you think it's going to rise beyond the amount you bought in for, then what difference will a few $$$'s make?

well the only reason I suggested this is that it is almost sure that the price will drop to $400 or lower and I wouldn't do it if I was on the fence about the price. I can't buy more really if it drops due to having to pay rent and other expenses

This assumes we hit $400 but waiting on this period is a good question on where it will go now

Assuming you bought with money you can afford to lose, I would hold. This should be a long term investment. Unless you are day trading it. Then you might want to sell and buy back. But the moment you sell, you realize a true loss, so you have to be ok with that.

That's why if you believe in bitcoin long term, are not a day trader, then you should just hold. The market will always go up and down.

No, the purpose of my suggestion was to safeguard in case it doesn't hit $400. If he went with his plan, he'd sell at a loss, and then wait for a $400 that never comes (locking in those losses). My plan balances the two potential outcomes with an opportunity to cost average down to $500 if price goes to $400.

This. The market will almost certainly continue going down in the short-medium term, but eventually it will go back up.

Thats what im saying, if it will almost certainly go down, why not sell now and buy back cheaper?

What if it doesnt?

Very small chance imo. Has there been any confirmation of the chinese situation?

Sell now, if you can. Short- to mid-term, BTC price will slide down to $250, pre-Chinese buying frenzy of Nov-Dec'2013.

Well that does seem about right if China is taken out feel like theres still a gain range though

Too risky. Many people got burned doing so. HOLD and buy more while it drops - is the best strategy.

Not a good time at all, from a day traders point of view. the panic sellers have just been, now it's up or sideways for some time. think about it.

Make your decision based on how much worth this money is to you. In what order can you afford it to lose? I bought 3.2btc with money I probably need the next few month. So I sold 1.5 with a little loss. This is the right decision. I knew the risk and followed a plan.


So you think without China the price would have been 250$ until now? All the news about Bitcoin in the western world would have not mattered?
-> This is stupid. There were 12 months and there was development in the Bitcoin space which affected the price.

sell it, you will profit

Of course its good if you can sell high and buy low.
but often we see people deciding to sell when the market has already reacted and their short strategy turns into sell low and buy high.

nevertheless you should decide yourself and not listen to anybody. nobody can tell you what happens next.

It is always gamble waiting for higher or lower price, so whatever you do, gamble responsible :)

Might be too late now but you could look at shorting with your BTC as collateral. Essentially that'd freeze your $$ position should it turn and hit > what you shorted while gaining the upside of cash if it continues going down. I've followed this strategy a few times when it seems unsettled, sure when it's gone up I've lost a few dollars but when it's gone down I've gained. Set tight stop losses!

Probably would not advise you to sell now. But I did sell above 500 as it was clearly struggling there.

If there is a bounce up next week and goes close to 600 then you can sell.

Bounces are common in this realm. I wouldn't try selling in an attempt to regain losses. Although, if the price does dip as low as you anticipate, it gives a reason to buy more. And in the case that it does balance off at $500 after that dip, your losses would be balanced. (Assuming you both bought an equal amount at $400 and $600.)

As rational as this sounds, I would suggest that there is a clear bear pennant being formed on the Bitcoin chart, although the OP certainly has a dilemma on his hands. 9/10 times, when I have made a bum trade and covered my losses, Bitcoin has always at some point in the future provided an opportunity that would have allowed me to either break even or indeed take a large profit. However, the longer Bitcoin trends along in this sub $530 range, on low volume, the more likely that when the volume picks up again, it is going to be of the sell-off variety, especially considering the China situation where there are still clearly many trading in CNY who for some reason don't feel threatened by the rumours of the PBOCs 15th April stance on CNY exchanges, yet!

TA 101 is pointing to more downside after this bear flag/pennant completes.

The fundamentals are looking scary with the PBOC rumours.

Anyone who is feeling bullish right now is relying on some kind of X-Factor, such as in early March when some seemingly lone investor turned up on Bitstamp with tens of millions USD at his disposal and started placing 3K Bid orders right at the spot price resulting in an avalanche of panic buying. If I was the OP, I would be watching the markets like a hawk right now, especially Huobi where any great sell off pressure is likely to occur first. I would be watching closely for Bitcoin to test the $530-$550 range. If it can break beyond here then he might be able to get out with even money. If it gets up to this range, or anywhere below this and behaves decidedly weak, or is met with huge selling pressure, then he may want to consider cutting his losses around here. If we break below $460, then this sucker is going to go down fkn hard and will very likely break below $380-$400, which would of course make the whole Dec 2013 - April 2014 period into one giant descending bear triangle, with a floor being formed in $380 - $400 range, and subesequently broken! In such a situation, the basement really would be the limit for Bitcoin.

True, there is a whole bunch of good news all over the place.

this is very reassuring :P

We are at the bottom.  It might dip to 450 or even 400, but I doubt much less.  2x last previous ATH is how it has normally stabilized and then it pops after a while to a new ATH.  I give it 8 months or so hit a new ATH.  

It's very tempting and very risky. If a dip that size were to happen, you could increase your holdings for free. If the dip doesn't happen, you will regret it for years. I will be looking for ways to save a bunch of fiat offline in anticipation of another big drop. What do you own besides BTC that could be sold at fair value? An extra car or something? Look at the 15m graph for BTC/CNY on OKcoin. The volume is gone. All the panic selling is over. You would need some kind of assurance that Chinese MSM will do a major story about the confirmed ban of BTC in China, no questions, just a solid NO from the Chinese PTB. I'm disappointed in my own timing because I sold all my LTC at 16.9 and bought back at 16.3, just a few hours before the red waterfall to 12.3 (FML).  Right now, predicting which way it will go seems harder than ever. The short term seems oddly stable at 500, so I wouldn't risk it.

Sure it is smart if the price goes down further. OTOH I know someone who sold @ 63 in July for the same reason, almost exactly hitting the low. I for one know that I'd bend over backwards and bite my own balls off if I miss the next rally just because I could not resist gambling for some change.

In addition, gambling for change is taxable. Hodling is not in many jurisdictions.

21st march.. btcCHINA ceo said that china did not really ban bitcoin..

dude use your brains... u think huobi ceo + litecoin CEO + btcchina CEO do not have friends from the goverment?

of course they do.. so do u think they will have the news first or the corrupted reporters that will report for $ that tells the truth??


its like if your the MANAGER if there is any news.. do u think the director of your department will tell the manager first or your staff or your cleaner?

of course your manager will know first, not your mum or dad !!

wake up.. use some IQ please.. of course the damn bloody news is fake...ITS A FUD.. so dont get FK up by a FUD...

not really high... i bought low before when mtgox crash and haven sell them.. ^^ just feel that its time wasting

Once this persistent rumor is confirmed, Its gonna get really ugly when bulls ( knife-catchers) and hodlers panic and capitulate as it pops.
Sheer Panic and unreal prices is not excluded in the coming weeks..

The longer you hold, you are more at a loss.

Trend and price before 1 month:
http://www.dodaj.rs/f/V/JM/4H6veSvX/yyy.jpg

Trend and price today, It not look good, the price follows the trend
http://www.dodaj.rs/f/27/9e/4vr0gXBR/yyy.jpg

See you again within a month with trend lines and current price.

Lol Igorr, you posted the exact same message in multiple threads.
I get that you are depending on bitcoin price collapse so you can make money, but can you restrict your "analysis" to one thread? It's really annoying and you are convincing no one

Obviously, you fear is that people see this  ???

igorr,the king of trolling

Then please just buy,  give all your money for bitcoin, much buy.
Sell your house and everything and invest in bitcoin.

What? I have nothing to gain from spreading lies. I barely own any bitcoins and not planning on speculating.
You have money to make from spreading fear. I get it. Just be less transparent and annoying about it, please. You are about as subtle as the propaganda on Russian news   :D

It is possible you are very wrong.
The China story is getting old, and being replaced by good news.
People in Denmark can buy the cheaper BTC (on non-Chinese exchanges), and legally pay no taxes on the profits.

Then, let the people yourself assessing whether these are lies or not.

Lol, I'm sure they can since I don't see anyone buying your FUD. Just stop spamming every thread, you already have your own thread to tell stories.

It is indeed possible. But do you know how many times and at how many price ranges I have heard that 'China is already priced in', only for it to turn out that it actually isn't?

Going forward, we have to assume that sooner rather than later, all the volume on the Chinese exchanges is going to stop, as the exchanges cease to operate because the Chinese government are not going to allow a phenomena to openly flourish that has the potential for undermining their entire economic system. As the reality continues to materialise, there will be further sell-off events, which a combination of arbitrage takers, those anticipating the arbitrage takers, and those simply panic selling cos the price is going down, will ensure that activities on the USD exchanges mirror the CNY exchanges.

Any uptrend between now and the end of digital Bitcoin trading in China will be a counter-trend rally...........(and I personally am suspecting a little rally up to mid $550 ranges).

It is that simple.

I believe that once you buy some bitcoin, you should not even think about how much you paid for them. Honestly what you originally paid should have no bearing whatsoever on when you choose to buy or sell. If the price is going to go down, the right decision will always be to sell, even if it is for less than what you originally paid. And on the flip side of that, if the price is going to go up, the best option is always going to be to buy.

Although personally I don't buy/sell often. I'm a fan of hodling xD

The China story is losing it's power especially after the recent hoax.
The China story is still losing it's power even if the recent rumors are true.  :)

I also bought at 680 and my only way is to hodl. Too risky for me to play this sell and buy game. Bitcoin almost do the opposite of that what we expect.

As we were at 520 just 3 weeks ago everybody was expecting a downfall back to 400s again so I was waiting with buying and than that whale bought 10k coins and we were at 710 in just minutes. So I thought 680 is a good price and bought.

Better to hold and buy some if it hits 400

yea its for 99.9% sure wont drop < 200 thats for sure LOL!! 200-300 very diff.. 300-400 abit diff.. 400-500 yes might drop to 400..

Gotta remember though, "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

I still feel that there is a lot of consolidation that is yet to occur before any other trending will occur. After all, the Chinese markets have been affected by all of the news (rumors as they may be) and their market share will continue to impact the entire bitcoin landscape for a while to come. Sure I don't think the trendline will continuously go down, but I think it could last a little while longer. As for that analysis chart that someone posted, I think at this stage, better results would be gotten with a exponential chart. If this stretches out to May (which I highly suspect will be the case) we could see ~$300, but I think by then the market trend will have finally shown signs of going in the other direction.