Bitcoin Forum

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/24/HxfpZ.png

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website (https://blockchair.com/tools/halving-countdown), and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

 

There's is a similar thread here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5441280.msg61820938#msg61820938
Nothing is fully accurate
They are estimations, but they roughly correct
This isn't the only site that tries to predict the date
Other's exist
Though the final date may differ
But they roughly same
After every 210,000 blocks of Bitcoin are mined
The block rewards are halved
It takes approximately 10 minutes to mine a block
Not been always 10 minutes taken per block mined
Is the reason the date can't be fully accurate
But it gets more accurate the closer it gets to the next halving

They are predictions and they cannot be accurate exactly. It is impossible to predict the exact moment when the final block in this 210,000 block cycle would be completed, you can only estimate based on the average ~10 minute between blocks.

It is not essential to have reliable source for the next halving, all you need to do is to buy Bitcoin, hodl and wait for the pump that is likely to come after the halving.

That's just an estimation.
Till now, 795767 blocks have been mined. This means that there are 44233 blocks until the next halving. Assuming these blocks will be mined at the rate of 1 per 10 minutes on average, the halving will be 442330 minutes or 307 days later.
This is exactly the time displayed on blockchair.com. Other websites may use different methods for predicting the halving date and that's why you may see different dats. For example, buybitcoinworldwide (https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/) predicts halving to be 296 days later.

Each website will display different timings, so there is no guarantee of 100% accuracy. However, based on calculations, the halving event should occur around these dates. Although these estimates may not be entirely accurate, the variation should not be significant. The timing of the halving event depends on the number of blocks that have been mined since every 210,000 blocks trigger a halving. Therefore, websites that provide calculations take into account the time it takes to mine each block.

^ Comments above are definitely right, we cannot perfectly predict when the next halving will occur.
So it means, the exact time of the next halving event may not be predictable with absolute precision because the specific timing of a halving event is determined by the number of blocks mined on the BTC blockchain. Each block contains a specific number of transactions, and when a certain number of blocks are mined (specifically 210,000 blocks), a halving event takes place.

The Bitcoin halving occurs in every four years. It will happen after the 210 000 blocks are mined. The average time that a Bitcoin block when it is mined is 10 minutes and to know the exact date when the halving occurs is to calculate it using a formula if you know the formula but if you haven't know it yet then try using the formula on Binance Academy and they also have countdown timer there. Anyway, here's the formula that binance is using to solve when will be the next Bitcoin halving, Halving block - Next block height) * Average time between blocks - estimated time until the next block. One more thing, they are not accurate since it is a prediction.


Reference:
Here's the link to the countdown timer I mentioned and where the formula is, https://academy.binance.com/en/halving

The disparity is actually from the time taken to mine a block. The binance academy approximately uses 10.19minutes but we can say that an increase in the hash rate would eventually reduce the time to less than 10. Minutes and also a reduced hash rate will increase the average time ahead of the 10 minutes. Although the difficulty will just it after every 2016 blocks but those reductions or additional minutes will still affect the calculations. So until there is a fixed hash rate that makes sure that each block is mined at that exact 10 minutes (which is not possible) all the dates would just be speculated ones.

Wrong.
Binance Academy (https://academy.binance.com/en/halving) predicts the halving to be 295 days and 4 hours (which equals to 425040 minutes) later .
As there are 44230 blocks until the next halving, they have used the average block time of around 9.6 minutes (around 9 minutes and 36 seconds) in their calculations.

425040 / 44230 = 9.6

Thanks for the correction, although i didn’t even bother to calculate it out my self but actually took the time up from the general data here which shows an approximate 10.19 minutes
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/24/Hx1X9.jpeg

I just checked that and it's currently displaying the approximate block time of 9.89 minutes.
Also, they are now predicting that the halving will be 293 days later. It was 295 days later a few minutes ago.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/06/24/HxLzN.jpeg

I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

Predictions and estimations are too different thing. Those are estimations only from the given fixed numbers of bitcoin time of estimation of confirmation which is every 10 minutes. But it didn't happen to do that since sometimes it got confirmed with in 10 minutes sometimes are not.
But on the other hand its not a big deal since we are talking of fixed number of block it will occur.

You compare every website that has a countdown for the halving, not all of them are the same and that's why they're just putting some assumption that the time they set are gonna be the one where the block will be mined for that halving. I don't think that there's a need for it to be accurate with that unless you do really think that there's something important a person need to be accurate with that. Don't stress a lot with the accuracy because no matter what the countdown is and if they differ from each other, it will come.

but if blocks are averaging 11 minutes/block, its more like 338 days.. a whole month difference
and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

That's wrong.
There are 44229 blocks until the next halving and assuming that the next blocks will be mined with the average time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 437425 minutes or 303 days later. That's only 4 days less than the time predicted with considering average block time of 10 minutes.

There seems to be consensus that bitcoin halving will be experienced next year but the exact time of 2024 has been debated. Different crypto websites and analysts have their specific predictions. From my findings in different predicting websites, I think it will be difficult to know the exact minute, hour, or even day. But a summary of some of the websites visited puts the having date between February to June 2024. I am not also too concerned about the precise date because I am willing to wait till anything occurs next year. The actual halving time may be more important to Bitcoin traders.

How essential might that be?
Because, accurate prediction is some of the most difficult to do or archive in the crypto space.

When the halving is put into context with respect to predicting the exact date and time it would take place, I can’t really comment on that as, my facts would be based on past research events on the halving and not as an actual expectant of the halving when it came through as, I haven’t been around that much.
Hence, there is a lot to prove out of this forth coming halving from the predictions that have been stated.

What is factual as I know it now, is that the halving comes once in four years.

Relying on countdown websites only provides a rough estimate, as far as I know, there are numerous halving countdown websites that display different countdown times.

The exact date may not be accurate, but having an estimated month can help us prepare.

As a Bitcoin hodler, I don't pay much attention to the precise timing because it takes about a year after the halving to witness another Bitcoin all-time high (ATH), based on the four-year cycle that I have observed.

Well, judging by my experience from previous halvings these halving countdowns are not 100% correct. They do give an approximate idea on when halving is going to happen though. I think it's pretty safe to use to find out an approximate date.

Most Reliable Halving Countdown? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5403419.0)

They are estimation times and when halving is more nearly, the estimations will be more accurate because it will be less affected by changes by confirmation time of rest blocks till a halving block.

Difference between actual halving time and estimation halving time when there are 210,000 blocks till a halving block will be bigger than a difference when there is only 10 blocks till the halving block.

This is the answer- everything is based on estimation which is completely dependent on the mined blocks under the blockchain. If suddenly, people would not transact with BTC and miners would not confirm any transactions, the date of estimation on the halving would thus increase.

Though this may be the case, I seriously think that the coming halving will significantly impact the price of BTC in the market. By basing it purely on history, almost all halving increased the price of BTC, which makes this the perfect opportunity to HODL and/or invest for either short or long-term.

Those were never accurate.

There will always be a variation on how fast each block is mined, and so with those variations adjusts the time that we reach the next halving point. AFAIK, those predictions are always pretty close to the exact thing, and each prediction becomes more accurate as more we get closer to the exact halving point.

Heck, even if we are 5 or so blocks away from the halving point, we'll still never get too accurate on our predictions.

Nope, just estimations. Also, if this question refers to the uptrend of the market, then another no. Although there would be an increase with market prices before rhe estimated date of halving,  but it won't be continuous in an instant. The market price would more likely move sideways due to high volume so manage the risk still.Yes, also with what will happen. The idea that there will be a huge price increase is just because of what happened on the previous halving but realistically speaking, there's no guarantee of it and also, to when will the market price start to move. Just like what I've said, the price won't jump in a blink of an eye.

In fact, most of the times we're going up in pulses or bursts. Most probably we're not going to reach or exceed ATH immediately but eventually we will. Something like a leg up into $50k area then some dump to $35-38k and the another burst into the ATH area etc etc...

Approximate estimates are made. They take the average value of the time elapsed between blocks and do so. So probably none of them will find exactly the right time. Because this value can change. The exact time may not be known, but estimates give about a day. I think you should invest while there is so little time left in line with the estimates. The halving, which takes place every 4 years, offers us many opportunities.

If you always go with HODL, you won't miss what happened before and after the halving.

During a current difficulty epoch you can make predictions of average block intervalls until that epoch ends. Then difficulty is adjusted to yield again an average block intervall of 10min. So, halving predictors shouldn't extrapolate current difficulty epoch's average block intervalls different from 10min (as it seems the Binance predictor does, but I haven't verified), otherwise they'd neglect any difficulty adjustments which would be stupid.

I personally don't need a prediction to be accurate to the hour when it's still months ahead. Can't be accurate, anyway. The closer we get, the better the prediction. That's fine for me.

And by chance the time to mine block 840,000 could be anything between 1s and maybe up to 120min.

Of the prediction is accurate. It is not like something that may happen. It's something that is already programmed to happen at the right time, which in this case should be between April -May 2024.
In the past as you stated, we witness how after this kind of event, the bullish season comes. It comes 3-6months after the halving.

It is said currently BTC is expected to be in a bullish season and I know it the right time to trade and make good profits too.
The halving may usher in new innovation in the network or an upgrade of a previous innovation to perform better in less time with less congestion.
For those who intend to HODL, during the halving please don't panic, the value of your coins, although smaller, would be as valuable as it remains intact.

These are based on the information that we have from the past, like, we already know when the last halving took place, and we also do know how many blocks will be mined before the next halving and we also do know how much time it usually takes for a block to mine, and then i think it is a simple math to calculate the halving.

And i do not think, the exact time is that important for people who are just speculating it for the bull run because the bull run does not come just after the halving, so basically, this timing is important for miners as they are the ones who will face reward reduction. But still, they will be compensated accordingly, as BTC always gives more in comparison to economic currencies.

It's an estimation, each website that hosts the countdown have different clocks because all of them estimate when will that block that's going to cause the halving to be solved. To be honest, it's kind of weird that you put reliable and prediction in the same paragraph because prediction by definition should be unreliable since it's a hunch or a guess at best and reliable isn't really the best word for it. Maybe the word would probably be ballpark, inexact or approximate, maybe approximate is the best word.

I am not among those who believe in 100% accuracy, so I doubt this is 100% accurate. It might be a close prediction since, no doubt, we have a lot of people using machines and other things to make their calculations, but an accurate countdown is nearly impossible considering the time gap, which could possibly change in the near future.
 
A block confirmation time that was used to make that prediction might either reduce or increase, which will bring about a possible time difference. I could just say this is a near prediction since the difference might not be far from a 1-2 month difference.

How do you bitcoiners plan to prepare for bitcoin halving?

Also, I'm wondering why? Is it to wait for the price to rise sharply to btc? If so, where do these predictions come from? Traditionally, the (strong) rise in the price of bitcoin began with a delay, and not immediately after the halving.

Halving will happen one way or another. According to the timer or at other times. Which, in turn, will halve the reward to miners, lowering the availability of BTC. And this, in my opinion, is the most interesting thing.

The countdown is not accurate since it automatically adjust the end date based on the average speed of block being discovered. The halving date now on blockchair countdown that you provide is changed to Apr 27, 2024 1:59 AM UTC and will change more while we are approaching the target block. Its better to pay attention on the block count instead of date because that's what really matter on Bitcoin halving.

There's no way to determine an accurate date unless we are only few blocks away from the halving.

That's true and what we have are just mere speculations or rather estimations about when will be the next bitcoin halving will happen and that's just the given situation by the platform considering that there is indeed a block that will be mined in every 10 minutes. In simple words, nobody can fully guarantee that the given predictions will exactly happen at the given time frame.
Anyway, we shouldn't be bothered about this thing because what's more important is to try and accumulate as much bitcoin as possible before the halving will happen as we likely know already what will happen after that.

After reading that now I am curious to know why, for you, it's so important to know the exact moment of the bitcoin halving, is there any specific reason? Is it because you mine bitcoin? Does it have to do with the price and eventual trading? I don't recall ever reading about anyone that needed to know this moment in such precise way...

Yes, that's it. The difference of the actual hour, date could vary but that's okay. Those dates or the actual time that the 840,000th block to be mined will certainly vary. The result is gonna be big for sure and we're all aware of that, could also be important to traders as you've said because buying pressures and demand might increase during the actual time it has been mined and the actual halving happens. For long term holders, it won't be that much important to know the time accurately because we're here to wait and wait and then find the right price and time for us to sell. I think soon, we'll see stats of these websites that have countdowns and will have the percentage of how accurate they are.

It is a mere estimation based on the notion that one block is mined every 10 minutes with a little less than 44,000 block remaining to be mined until the reward for mining a block is slashed in half again. While these are just rough estimation based on these parameters they are great enough at teling people how relatively close we are to the next halving event which is good enough so to speak, since there’s really no greater incentive to knowing when the mext halving will come down to the last hour and minute other than the fact that you’ll probably announce it on twitter or facebook lmao.

Tools like Blockchair give a rough sketch of Bitcoin halving, based on current mining rates and the 10-minute block addition rule. But, lets not carve these estimates in stone; they're mere projections, not exact truths. Mining speed sways due to a host of elements like network complexity tweaks and overall mining might. So, while these tools sketch an outline, pinpointing the exact halving day, let alone hour or minute, is a shot in the dark.

As Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiasts, we should understand foundational principles, rather than leaning entirely on prediction models. These forecasts, while handy, arent fail-safe. They're as precise as nailing the next raindrop's landing time

hmm who said it oh it was you..


ok thanks for correcting yourself

Price predictions after the halving cannot be ascertained with certainty. Usually, the bitcoin price can go up after the halving but it takes time too. What is certain and visible and common is Bitcoiners to make forecasts of future prices while monitoring the price movements of BTC, other digital assets and market trends. plus there has been an increase in institutional adoption as well as an increase in public interest especially recently, all of which have had a significant impact on the Bitcoin economy.


That's right, The last halving took place on May 11, 2020 and the Bitcoin block subsidy has been halved to 6.25 BTC in that time. Therefore, if we use the average time estimate between the previous halves, we can assume that the next halving will occur around 2024 for the exact time of the bitcoin halving. I think it depends on the protocol rules programmed into the network.

You misunderstood that post.
I said binance academy has predicted the halving to be 293 days later while they say the average block time is 9.89 minutes. I even shared the link.
In the next part of my post, I said that with considering the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

293 days was what displayed on binance academy and 303 days was what calculated by me.

i never stated any of the numbers quoted by anyone were factually correct or not..  i just stated that different sources were saying different amounts..

dont cause drama by saying im wrong about numbers that YOU mentioned.. because fact is: YOU mentioned them first i just said other people said..
end of discussion..

However, given that these things are giving different results from different websites which make me think that they are not reliable in my opinion, I think we should only use what we all know and calculate how the blocks are getting mined in 10 minutes. I believe by doing that we will see how it goes. Even though I'm not waiting or checking these predictions before halving the fact that most of these I didn't take them essential meaning that I'm seeing them as unreliable things. In light of the fact that the most recent halving occurred on May 11, 2020, which leads us to conclude that it will happen around 2024, I feel we should refrain from utilizing other websites because they are providing us with inaccurate information.

So, I think as someone who wants to invest, I think we should go ahead and invest, and wait for the next increase in the price of bitcoin and hold onto our investments for whatever long or short a time it takes, given that no one can foresee the precise moment.

Predictions can never be accurate no matter what. Maybe it was the right counting or not and whether it was right or wrong at least, we have an idea when it possibly comes. And at least we have time to prepare and anticipate the possible price surge leading to a bull run and new ATH. It is somewhat to say that people are very excited when it happens and so they are accumulating more coins, filling their bags, and making themselves ready for the said marker event. It will just come with a sign...

That is why it is called prediction because there is no guarantee. But who cares much about the exact date and hour of the halving? It is only for the record and historical milestones.

Financially, it is all about positioning which happens earlier than the exact halving date. Big whales and institutions are not dumb and are smart enough to position themselves as early as last year. Many investors continue with their regular DCA while the price of bitcoin is still cheap at $30k. Personally, I might continue my DCA until bitcoin surpasses $40k to $50k.

Many people are misinterpreting the halving, many of them believing that bitcoin will increase as soon as the halving takes place. All look forward to the halving event to trigger a new bull run, so it's no surprise they need to know the exact halving date. The halving is inevitable, and the bull season will only come 1 year after the halving ends (based on history), so we don't need to rush and rush.
Currently, I'm not very interested in the halving, instead, I still hope the bitcoin price doesn't go up anytime soon so I can continue to fill my bitcoin pocket.

I think the best way is to simply just keep a week in your mind when the halving will occur instead of thinking about the specific day and hour, block times can't be delayed too much for the event to be pushed more than a week in my opinion, so having an estimate of a specific week should be enough. Besides, people will already start buying when the halving is to occur after a month, and the market might start moving from there.

So those who are asking for the exact time or day or week or month should simply just have an eye on the market and just remember the month of the halving because things will start escalating a month before it and we will witness something positive even before it reaches.

That is very correct because no one can predict the exact time the next halving will take place so most of the bitcoin halving countdown trackers are just speculating and the next bitcoin halving will happen either before or after that prediction since as upgrade rightly said, no one has the accuracy of time this event will happen and it all depends on the demands for bitcoin and how many transactions are carried out within the remaining space of time between now and then, so what happened in the Bitcoin networks in terms of transactions is what matters.
But for sure the next bitcoin halving will happen around the displayed time month but the exact day is still unknown