Are the Predictions of Bitcoin Halving accurate?

[Hatchy]

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

 

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[Ambatman]

There's is a similar thread here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5441280.msg61820938#msg61820938
Nothing is fully accurate
They are estimations, but they roughly correct
This isn't the only site that tries to predict the date
Other's exist
Though the final date may differ
But they roughly same
After every 210,000 blocks of Bitcoin are mined
The block rewards are halved
It takes approximately 10 minutes to mine a block
Not been always 10 minutes taken per block mined
Is the reason the date can't be fully accurate
But it gets more accurate the closer it gets to the next halving

[Upgrade00]

the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

They are predictions and they cannot be accurate exactly. It is impossible to predict the exact moment when the final block in this 210,000 block cycle would be completed, you can only estimate based on the average ~10 minute between blocks.

It is not essential to have reliable source for the next halving, all you need to do is to buy Bitcoin, hodl and wait for the pump that is likely to come after the halving.

[hosseinimr93]

That's just an estimation.
Till now, 795767 blocks have been mined. This means that there are 44233 blocks until the next halving. Assuming these blocks will be mined at the rate of 1 per 10 minutes on average, the halving will be 442330 minutes or 307 days later.
This is exactly the time displayed on blockchair.com. Other websites may use different methods for predicting the halving date and that's why you may see different dats. For example, buybitcoinworldwide predicts halving to be 296 days later.

[The Cryptovator]

Each website will display different timings, so there is no guarantee of 100% accuracy. However, based on calculations, the halving event should occur around these dates. Although these estimates may not be entirely accurate, the variation should not be significant. The timing of the halving event depends on the number of blocks that have been mined since every 210,000 blocks trigger a halving. Therefore, websites that provide calculations take into account the time it takes to mine each block.

[DoublerHunter]

^ Comments above are definitely right, we cannot perfectly predict when the next halving will occur.
So it means, the exact time of the next halving event may not be predictable with absolute precision because the specific timing of a halving event is determined by the number of blocks mined on the BTC blockchain. Each block contains a specific number of transactions, and when a certain number of blocks are mined (specifically 210,000 blocks), a halving event takes place.

[nakamura12]

The Bitcoin halving occurs in every four years. It will happen after the 210 000 blocks are mined. The average time that a Bitcoin block when it is mined is 10 minutes and to know the exact date when the halving occurs is to calculate it using a formula if you know the formula but if you haven't know it yet then try using the formula on Binance Academy and they also have countdown timer there. Anyway, here's the formula that binance is using to solve when will be the next Bitcoin halving, Halving block - Next block height) * Average time between blocks - estimated time until the next block. One more thing, they are not accurate since it is a prediction.


Reference:
Here's the link to the countdown timer I mentioned and where the formula is, https://academy.binance.com/en/halving

[Zaguru12]

The Bitcoin halving occurs in every four years. It will happen after the 210 000 blocks are mined. The average time that a Bitcoin block when it is mined is 10 minutes and to know the exact date when the halving occurs is to calculate it using a formula if you know the formula but if you haven't know it yet then try using the formula on Binance Academy and they also have countdown timer there. Anyway, here's the formula that binance is using to solve when will be the next Bitcoin halving, Halving block - Next block height) * Average time between blocks - estimated time until the next block. One more thing, they are not accurate since it is a prediction.

The disparity is actually from the time taken to mine a block. The binance academy approximately uses 10.19minutes but we can say that an increase in the hash rate would eventually reduce the time to less than 10. Minutes and also a reduced hash rate will increase the average time ahead of the 10 minutes. Although the difficulty will just it after every 2016 blocks but those reductions or additional minutes will still affect the calculations. So until there is a fixed hash rate that makes sure that each block is mined at that exact 10 minutes (which is not possible) all the dates would just be speculated ones.

[hosseinimr93]

The binance academy approximately uses 10.19minutes

Wrong.
Binance Academy predicts the halving to be 295 days and 4 hours (which equals to 425040 minutes) later .
As there are 44230 blocks until the next halving, they have used the average block time of around 9.6 minutes (around 9 minutes and 36 seconds) in their calculations.

425040 / 44230 = 9.6

[Zaguru12]

The binance academy approximately uses 10.19minutes

Wrong.
Binance Academy predicts the halving to be 295 days and 4 hours later which equals to 425040 minutes.
As there are 44230 blocks until the next halving, they have used the average block time of around 9.6 minutes (around 9 minutes and 36 seconds) in their calculations.

425040 / 44230 = 9.6

Thanks for the correction, although i didn’t even bother to calculate it out my self but actually took the time up from the general data here which shows an approximate 10.19 minutes

[hosseinimr93]

Thanks for the correction, although i didn’t even bother to calculate it out my self but actually took the time up from the general data here which shows an approximate 10.19 minutes

I just checked that and it's currently displaying the approximate block time of 9.89 minutes.
Also, they are now predicting that the halving will be 293 days later. It was 295 days later a few minutes ago.



I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

[PX-Z]

'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct.

Predictions and estimations are too different thing. Those are estimations only from the given fixed numbers of bitcoin time of estimation of confirmation which is every 10 minutes. But it didn't happen to do that since sometimes it got confirmed with in 10 minutes sometimes are not.
But on the other hand its not a big deal since we are talking of fixed number of block it will occur.

[tabas]

You compare every website that has a countdown for the halving, not all of them are the same and that's why they're just putting some assumption that the time they set are gonna be the one where the block will be mined for that halving. I don't think that there's a need for it to be accurate with that unless you do really think that there's something important a person need to be accurate with that. Don't stress a lot with the accuracy because no matter what the countdown is and if they differ from each other, it will come.

[franky1]

That's just an estimation.
Till now, 795767 blocks have been mined. This means that there are 44233 blocks until the next halving. Assuming these blocks will be mined at the rate of 1 per 10 minutes on average, the halving will be 442330 minutes or 307 days later.

but if blocks are averaging 11 minutes/block, its more like 338 days.. a whole month difference
and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

[hosseinimr93]

and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

That's wrong.
There are 44229 blocks until the next halving and assuming that the next blocks will be mined with the average time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 437425 minutes or 303 days later. That's only 4 days less than the time predicted with considering average block time of 10 minutes.

[Fiatless]

You compare every website that has a countdown for the halving, not all of them are the same and that's why they're just putting some assumption that the time they set are gonna be the one where the block will be mined for that halving. I don't think that there's a need for it to be accurate with that unless you do really think that there's something important a person need to be accurate with that. Don't stress a lot with the accuracy because no matter what the countdown is and if they differ from each other, it will come.

There seems to be consensus that bitcoin halving will be experienced next year but the exact time of 2024 has been debated. Different crypto websites and analysts have their specific predictions. From my findings in different predicting websites, I think it will be difficult to know the exact minute, hour, or even day. But a summary of some of the websites visited puts the having date between February to June 2024. I am not also too concerned about the precise date because I am willing to wait till anything occurs next year. The actual halving time may be more important to Bitcoin traders.

[Mr.right85]

As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

How essential might that be?
Because, accurate prediction is some of the most difficult to do or archive in the crypto space.

When the halving is put into context with respect to predicting the exact date and time it would take place, I can’t really comment on that as, my facts would be based on past research events on the halving and not as an actual expectant of the halving when it came through as, I haven’t been around that much.
Hence, there is a lot to prove out of this forth coming halving from the predictions that have been stated.

What is factual as I know it now, is that the halving comes once in four years.

[bayu7adi]

Relying on countdown websites only provides a rough estimate, as far as I know, there are numerous halving countdown websites that display different countdown times.

The exact date may not be accurate, but having an estimated month can help us prepare.

As a Bitcoin hodler, I don't pay much attention to the precise timing because it takes about a year after the halving to witness another Bitcoin all-time high (ATH), based on the four-year cycle that I have observed.

[serveria.com]

So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

Well, judging by my experience from previous halvings these halving countdowns are not 100% correct. They do give an approximate idea on when halving is going to happen though. I think it's pretty safe to use to find out an approximate date.

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

Most Reliable Halving Countdown?

They are estimation times and when halving is more nearly, the estimations will be more accurate because it will be less affected by changes by confirmation time of rest blocks till a halving block.

Difference between actual halving time and estimation halving time when there are 210,000 blocks till a halving block will be bigger than a difference when there is only 10 blocks till the halving block.