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Energy Crisis 1.0 last year is behind us but at the cost of deindustrialization of EU, mass lay offs (increased unemployment rate), decreasing quality of life (increased employment rate as people try to get additional jobs to fill their bellies), losing in competing international markets as other countries replaced European products, inflation + recession, collapse of banks, and a lot more while other economies grew specially in the Eastern Bloc.

Energy prices are still higher than what's needed to stop the inflation+recession and the scarcity has not been fully resolved in Europe to go back to the pre-2022 times where industries could start up again and start trying to compete. This means deindustrialization will continue.

As we get close to colder seasons we have had some significant developments that has worsened the energy situation and some that has the potential to turn things critical. I will iterate them here, feel free to add any that I missed:

1. Russia has been disrupting different markets in the past year (food/grain, fertilizer, gas and oil). Recently as a big diesel fuel exporter, Russia started disrupting that market and playing with international supply and price. They cut the export completely then lifted the ban slightly.
Diesel fuel is important in heavy machinery and is directly affecting the supply chain ergo the price of everything like price of food.

2. Ukraine's energy ministry publicly revealed something top classified regarding the gas storage in Ukraine overflowing and the capability to export to EU; consequently Russia has been using this classified information to target Ukraine's energy sector heavily ever since. Although I don't have reliable information about the degree of damage, this has definitely harmed a good source of energy for Europe thanks to idiots in Ukraine government who don't know what "classified" means at times of war.

3. Gas and oil that Europe bought from the separatist/terrorists in Northern Iraq (the so called autonomous Kurdistan) with the help of Turkey is now completely halted as these groups were disarmed and dismantled as Iraqi military took back control of their soil and its resources.

4. The plan to eliminate the country called Armenia and then NATOise the Caspian sea (a massive source of gas) for Europe to steal its resources is a big failure for now so that hope is gone for at least this year. After case #7 I don't think it will start ever again.

5. US strategic oil reserves is at its lowest so they can no longer release the reserves freely like before to desperately try to bring the price down. We can already see a small rise over the past couple of weeks that has the potential of growing faster now. That market manipulation by increasing supply can no longer work as effectively as before. So there is a good chance that oil starts rising in winter and next year (so does gold and of course bitcoin).

6. Africa remains the main source of energy for Europe but due to the coups and how some nations have started kicking out the colonizers it is not the most reliable source. Additionally there aren't enough LNG terminals to be able to meet the supply needs of EU.

7. Last but not least is Palestine. The recent rise up by the Palestinians against genocide and occupation of their country by a terrorist organization known as Israel changed the geopolitics of West Asia (falsely referred to as Middle East). Although this is not YET significantly affecting the energy markets but considering that United States is a supporter of this apartheid regime and there is a very small chance that US military could get involved, we can expect a massive energy price surge if US makes that mistake.
That's because the international community has warned United States that in the case of a direct military intervention, all US positions become legitimate targets. Majority of these positions are located in key oil rich regions such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc. any small tension in any of these regions would shoot the oil and gas prices up let alone an all out war that would not only increase energy prices to new record high but also would cut the global supply by at least 60%.

Coincidentally, many wars have broken out in the region and involve countries that are rich in oil as the main source of energy at this time. If we observe the recent tensions, the price of oil, a major energy source, will currently increase and could trigger an energy crisis. Plus, the tension between Russia and Ukraine will not only reduce the supply of oil exports but also the coal they have.

If Brics continues to strengthen its power, I can't imagine what kind of monopoly will happen. Most of the BRICS members have large energy resources and provide a lot of support to mainland Europe. The Middle East region has also started to heat up recently. The slightest tension between these countries will add to energy difficulties. Meanwhile, renewable energies have not yet developed and contributed optimally.
fuck about data and renewable energy and even electricity, in reality there is a lot of tension and war between countries/groups to control crude oil and coal.

Businesses have closed and unemployment has skyrocketed due to Europe's energy issues. But isn't that intriguing? Some places are thriving, others are struggling

It's scary how Russia handles fuel. They govern the universe like a toy. Did you say Ukraine? Giving up sensitive information at such a crucial time? It's odd

The oil import ban and Northern Iraqi unrest are another blow. With its stocks running low, the US is likewise struggling. Internal unrest and a lack of LNG terminals complicate matters in Africa

The evolving situation in Palestine could be the breaking point. If it intervenes, the US might change energy prices unlike ever before. It makes you wonder: Why do resource-rich areas typically have conflict?

Number 2 kinda support the speculation that it was the Ukranians who actually blew up the Nord Stream pipelines.

The obvious reason is countries that don't have those resources would like to have their share of the pie without necessarily paying too much. If they cannot do that then they try to create as much chaos within that resource rich country in order to suppress the growth of a rival.

I totally forgot about coal.

This is one of the smaller reasons I start discussions like this. You see it helps a lot to know what is going on in the world in a much bigger picture. It specifically helps make better financial decisions too. For example someone who trades stocks benefits from knowing these things. Imagine if you were bagholding energy company stocks (like the German energy giant Uniper that got dumped 95%). On the other hand there were some other stocks that skyrocketed in the same period (usually defense related stock).

Even in the current ongoing conflict in Palestine there are a lot of economic tips. For example take the highly lauded Merkava tanks that are advertised as super strong and super invulnerable, with each unit is worth $3.5 million. Palestinians are blowing them up easily, some with $50 drones and have captured at least 4 so far :D
The value of the company manufacturing them is now shit... because they're proven to be useless.

To further clarify this point, it must be recalled that one of the most important projects that was to be started to transport gas to Europe via Hassi R’Mal (Algeria) was disrupted, the most important details of which can be summarized in these ideas:
- There are three pipelines extending from Algeria (Hassi R'Mal) to Europe (two to Spain and one to Italy). The new line is to strengthen this supply network, knowing that this network does not only provide gas to Europe, as Tunisia and Morocco also benefit from it, in addition to Algeria itself.
- The project of this line began in the 1970s and remained the focus of studies for years before its effectiveness was confirmed, in addition to confirming the technical possibility of its completion, which only happened in the 2000s.
- Considering that Russia is working to disrupt the project, it must be taken into account that one of the most important factors that was disrupting the project is the security issue due to the activity of terrorist groups on the borders between the participating countries. The Ain Amenas incident in Algeria is an example.
- Algeria is an ally of Russia and has ambitions to join BRICS. Russia can convince Russia to disrupt the project without the need to inflame the situation in the rest of the agreement countries (Niger and Nigeria).

These are indeed valuable tips and anybody playing with stocks can place their bets. If the case about energy that you make turns out to be correct, then stocks of the conventional energy companies (coal, nuclear) would probably go up. Not sure how fast Europe can fire up its nuclear plants after the phase-outs that have happened, but would they really have any other option in case the crisis really intensifies?

I haven't taken a look at the enrgy situation very closely for a long time. I think it is time for research. How exactly has the green transition affected the energy security as well as resilience will be an interesting study. If the situation between Israel and Palestine explodes into a regional conflict, things are pretty much gonna go to shit for everyone really fast.

Israel and its Western allies are still surprised how Palestine was able to carry out such coordinated attacks that have caused colossal losses. Now they are pointing accusing fingers at Russia and Iran without any concrete evidence to back these claims. Any military response from Israel, against Iran will increase the price of oil. If the West choose to believe this propaganda without verification Iran might decide to make the Strait of Hormuz difficult for tankers to pass through.

Saudi Arabia which was pushing for the normalisation of its relationship with Israel has now changed its position. Now Saudi Arabia firm supporter of Palestine, which means any direct military intervention by the US will lead to some consequences since it is Saudi and Russia that controls OPEC+. This war might not currently have an effect on oil production because both warring nations are not oil producers, but if not handled with care, the world might suffer more than it did during the early stage of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Maybe it's not just oil and coal (energy) that they will try to monopolize, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) if we look in detail, some of its members have large superior resources that are capable of supporting themselves and even the country. others in particular were able to export the results of their resources to Europe. We can check the data here.
Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets - Fao.org https://www.fao.org/3/cc3020en/cc3020en.pdf

Let's look at food production data, especially China, India and Brazil always occupy the top positions in each sector. Maybe what we feel now is energy, but the food sector is also too important for us to miss.

Current world conditions are still heating up, tensions in Ukraine vs Russia continue to flare. Plus Palestine vs Israel. Here we know that Israel is one with America. If the Islamic countries are fed up and unite to help Palestine, we know the direction while BRICS is still able to recruit potential members who have large resources. This is just the beginning of the trade war.

Hezbollah said to have joined already and reports earlier was that Syria was already firing Israel. Seems like all hell breaks lose. Eventually, there will be more joining and the energy market is going to skyrocket soon.

Once richest country in EU, Germany is already collapsing without stable energy source. France might also crumble as less Uranium will be exported to them, it will not be enough to power the whole country. Crazy crazy times.

I should look deeper into that myself but from what I've seen, this transition has been very slow to begin with. Then the COVID recession slowed it down even more because the budget needed to go somewhere else (trying to kick start the economy again) then came the NATO-Russia war and again the budget needed to go somewhere else (military spending).
Now another theatre of war has opened that Europe has to fund, this time the invaders so that they can use Europe's money to murder children.

I don't think we can consider them fully involved in this war at this point. To me it seems like both Lebanese and Syrian resistance branches are trying to divide the attention of the Israeli terrorists to two additional battlefields instead of one (like previous times).

So if they force the terrorists to keep 50k IDF soldiers in the Northern border and 50k in Eastern border + Iron Dome batteries in each theatre, and do it by only "poking" the enemy that means 100k less troops, air defense, tanks, armored vehicle, air force, etc. for the Southern border.
Consequently the South resistance branch can advance and reach the West Bank easier in which case a direct land based route to outside world can be created that can then be used to get humanitarian aid such as food, water, medical supplies, gas (for electricity), etc. to Gaza that currently has none.

Next stage is still unpredictable. But we'll definitely know that we're in the next phase. For example we'll see the 150k missiles in action, as opposed to a couple of shells and small missile attacks in the past couple of days coming from north and east side of the occupied Palestine.

Hezbollah is Shia and Hamas is Sunni. They hate each other, but they hate Jews more
I wonder how long this war will last, but I'm certain there won't be a winner. They will murder thousands of innocent people on both sides and end with a truce.


Because Germans fell victim to the leftist narrative spread by left and the Green Party. Usually when socialist come to power it's game over for the economy and that's what happened in Germany.
They shut down all their nuclear plants without having enough backup in renewables, they are forcing people to use more electric cars that are more expensive to make and need power the German grid cannot supply... IMO Germany destroyed itself and the whole EU should wake up and slow down in this race to be the country with the least emissions.

Is the USA going to eliminate Armenia? Do you think so? That's the plan? Wasn't the Ottoman Empire during the world war 1 regularly destructing Armenian people?

By the way, how can the US NATOise the Caspian sea by eliminating Armenia?

Patrick Bet-David said: Armenians are successful everywhere except Armenia. I was thinking about that and it's actually true. Armenia as a country is not doing well in every aspect but Armenians are very successful in other countries, especially in the USA: Kim Kardashian and her family, system of a down members, Dan Bilzerian and so on.

Africa is the main source of energy for Europe?

In all seriousness, what's your honest opinion about Hitler? Why was he killing Jews according to your beliefs?

I don't know a lot about Palestine-Israel relationships to be frank, I don't and can't support any of them because I lack some knowledge about their histories, I only know about Jews but when I read some great books like Walter Scott's Ivanhoe, I understand that they aren't an innocent nation.
Right now, the fact is, Palestine seriously attacked Israel and are raping and murdering women and children, they started it out of sudden and started with full force, that's why the whole world is on Israel's side. And to be frank, the support of Israel comes from western nations because of religion and at the same time it's beneficial to side with Israel because of their advancement and development and there are many influential jews all around the world.
I don't really know who is the real evil between Palestine and Israel but my heart thinks that Palestine is not the most evil between two.

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What I like about you is that you have a different opinion and you always try to back them up. You are probably a person whom I can trust more about middle east news than any other media. Take that as a compliment from me  ;)

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended; now that Israel and Hamas have joined, I am thinking about the effect it will have on other countries that are far away from them.

If this country of ours is far from Russia, we can feel the effect it has on fuel. Now,  with the ongoing war with Hamas and Israel, fuel prices will probably increase again for us in a few weeks. It's like Hamas attacked first, so when Israel attacked, they stopped attacking because two leaders of Hamas died immediately. Think that Israel is a small country, but it is also a strong enemy.

It is tough when you summarize a very complicated situation inside 2 lines.
You see it is not that USA wants to directly eliminate Armenia and its people. It is the consequence of their plans. Armenian elimination would be collateral damage.

We all know that EU has been trying to fill the gap in its energy deficit. Caspian sea is an excellent source of all kinds of resources but because the surrounding countries are not members of NATO and the two powers from North and South (Russia and Iran) haven't allowed it both legally (categorized as "inland body of water") and by exerting power, there has not been any foreign presence in this sea to this day.

Some of these countries already have small energy exports to EU but NATO wants more, the plan has always been to use their proxy's proxy (Aliyev) to overtake the bottleneck known as south Armenia and create a link with Turkey. Then Azerbaijan would immediately join NATO and NATO forces would pour into the Caspian sea building bases there and bringing their navies.
This will also effectively choke Armenia geographically by cutting all its connection to the outside world while this then tinier country would be surrounded by all its enemies that would continue advancing in the following years taking more of its soil.

The outcome of this plan for NATO would be:
1. NATO presence in Caspian sea that would mean presence near the borders of the two super powers in the region (Russia in the north and Iran in the south)
2. NATO presence in Caspian sea to start building energy extraction infrastructure (for gas and oil) and suck all the resources out towards EU.
3. NATO presence in the area (that used to be Armenia) linking an important international corridor from Iran (East corridor and Chabahar port/corridor in South) that links to China and India and is used for international exports. In the ongoing Corridor Wars, NATO that used to have the upper hand in the seas and "sea corridors" now wants to have the same control in the land based corridors. This is one piece of that puzzle.

It is one of the considerable sources to supply Uranium, oil, gas and coal (exports to EU increased by nearly 600% last year).

I don't see the relevance. Crimes and genocide committed by a bloodthirsty Nazi dictator against Jews does not justify crimes and genocide committed by Zionists against Palestinians. Even if it did, Israel should have been built inside Germany not Palestine.

That was not a fact, that was propaganda that failed as quickly as they created it. Even POTUS who spread this lie 2 days ago went back on it and admitted that it was a lie.
You see the Palestinians who are now rising up are Muslims, in Islamic ideology they follow something such as "rape" is punishable by death. Not to mention that the channel 13 of the Israeli TV has already released at least half a dozen interviews with the militant Jews in the surrounding Gaza settlements that were released by Hamas who are stating how Hamas has treated them with respect and released any women with children.

They did not start it, the Zionists started it the day they invaded their country and occupied their lands (kind of like what happened to Ukraine). They continued it by ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. So when Palestine was presented with two options: to die or to rise up, they chose the later.
This recent battle is only one battle in a 75 year old war. The difference is that this time Palestine is packing a stronger punch compared to previous times. Also this time Palestine pulled a preemptive strike.

Not the whole world though. Only the Western Mainstream Media is with Israel. If you check out majority of Western countries, there has been lots of marches in favor of Palestine to the point that some EU members are now banning them. For example French authorities stated that supporting Palestine is punishable by 7 years in prison!!! The same in England that you are not allowed to even carry the Palestinian flag.

And of course in the East all people stand with Palestine. Right now the borders in Egypt and Jordan are packed with people who are trying to get into the occupied land and help Palestinians who are being slaughtered.
Today there is the largest marches by regular people across West Asia in support of Palestine.

Thanks for the compliment. :)
I try to provide a different point of view that is not the same as the status quo in the mainstream media which is mostly the Western line.

Yes, the next stage is still unexpected. It is clear that the Palestinians will not surrender easily, and they have a strong card this time, which is hundreds of prisoners, which could constitute somewhat of a deterrent for Israel.

Returning to the costs, we now see how simple tools such as “gliders” were able to disrupt the operation of the Israeli Iron Dome and the separation wall, which cost billions of dollars, in addition to what you mentioned about the cheap equipment that destroys the expensive Merkava tanks. This may constitute the beginning of a shift in the pattern of thinking about The feasibility of spending these billions on military equipment that has become useless in exchange for primitive equipment.

The continuation of battles in this sensitive region of the world will have negative consequences on energy prices and could have an impact on the global economy in general, especially with the United States sending its warships to the Mediterranean and the possibility of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah indirectly intervening in the war.

If you read from a book, you must be completely neutral and without taking sides and according to the facts. It is very easy to manipulate information through books and news.

We know here clearly that Palestine has 2 camps, namely the Hamas group (dominant in the Gaza Strip) and the Fatah group. These 2 groups also have the same goal of defending Palestine from Israeli colonialism. But their ways are different. Fatah uses the negotiation route with the aim of reducing casualties due to armed conflict, and Hamas uses the weapon/war route. In fact, these 2 camps are at odds with each other and often conflict.

https://i.ibb.co/2SrKS1r/2023-10-06-israel-palestine-control-map-before-hamas-war.png (https://ibb.co/r3hy3Rh)
Image by: https://www.polgeonow.com/2021/05/israel-palestine-control-map-west-bank-areas-gaza.html?m=1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2017/10/12/hamas-and-fatah-how-are-the-two-groups-different
However, recently Hamas's influence has begun to spread to areas dominated by the Fatah group. This is due to Israel's increasingly outrageous actions in attacking and confiscating Palestinian property and places of worship.

In essence, I do not support actions like this which cause citizens (especially women and children) to become victims of the Palestinians and Israelis.

If it leads to the Israeli and Palestinian conflict there is a long history behind it regarding religious beliefs. I don't want to discuss it because it will be different from one version to another, especially as it concerns several beliefs. What I understand here is that every religion condemns murder, suspicion, plunder and other bad acts. I'm sure this is just the work of greedy individuals who are willing to sacrifice many innocent victims to fulfill their desires.

In addition, I also want to mention another competition that we don't seem to hear much about semiconductor chip materials, almost all future technology development depends on this. And I also ask big questions about whether it can be a source of competition for big countries, specifically the Taiwan area issue, the risk of war in this area at one time seemed like we can believe that mainland China will make moves to absorb Taiwan.

The construction of a new polarized world order to avoid control from the United States on a global scale has also appeared a lot, and I also understand that the story of war is inevitable, areas are is a hot spot of war that really plays an important role in energy.

We are aware that the main supplier of diesel fuel is Russia. Russia has been able to export diesel fuel on a daily average of about 1.1 million barrels, which indicates that Russia accounts for 10% of the global export of diesel fuel.

Now, the shortage of diesel fuel is a significant issue that seriously affects every nation's economy worldwide. And as far as I'm aware, the current answer is both reducing dependency on diesel fuel and increasing diesel fuel output in other nations.

Reference: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/russia-diesel-ban-threatens-to-roil-global-markets-if-it-lasts

Russia and Iran have not yet been openly accused of helping Hamas carry out an attack on Israeli territory on October 7, although there is some evidence of this. At the time of the attack, Russia transferred Western military equipment to Hamas, which it captured in the war against Ukraine, in order to then accuse Ukraine of transferring it and achieve a reduction in arms supplies to Ukraine. That is, Russia at least knew about the upcoming Hamas attack, despite the fact that the preparations were carried out in strict secrecy and this came as a surprise even to Israeli intelligence. Over time, this will probably be confirmed, so Russia and Iran cannot avoid further sanctions.

The Putin regime has big problems associated with the attack on Ukraine, so it seeks to spark more military conflicts in the world, thereby diverting attention and assistance provided to Ukraine, as well as diverting the attention of its citizens from failures in Ukraine.

For the people of Palestine, the current war with Israel will not bring anything good, only additional suffering, death and destruction. But World War III has become closer than ever, although the situation is unlikely to develop into such a war. Most likely, Hamas will be destroyed and that will be the end of it.

Apart from the shortage of diesel fuel which can affect the global economic sector, there is another possibility for each country to use other fuels that are more environmentally friendly so that they can continue to carry out all the production of goods carried out so far. Because if production of goods has to stop due to a shortage of diesel fuel, this will actually be even worse for the country's economy, so several countries must try to deal with this better in order to continue producing goods as usual. Because when an energy that is often used has become very crisis and unstable, it will certainly cause other bad things to the economy and can even trigger wars to gain power in any case.

We know that russia is one of the largest suppliers of diesel, but not the main one. Especially now India and China are taking the "palm" of supremacy in diesel production from oil from Russia.
But the problem is not in Russia at all, but in nuances. Among the nuances that have affected the decline in diesel production on a global scale are the following:
- Reduction of oil production by OPEC countries
- The situation is difficult for the global refining fleet, which has been suffering from insufficient production for months. The scorching heat in the Northern Hemisphere this summer has forced many refineries to run slower than usual, resulting in lower inventories.
- Forced shutdowns of less efficient refineries when oil demand fell to Covid-19 levels. Although consumption is now recovering, many refineries remain idle.
But experts say the diesel shortage could still ease with the onset of the cooler winter months, when weather constraints on refineries generally ease - even as some undergo routine seasonal maintenance.

I don't know about Russia but there isn't anything left in Iran that US has not yet sanctioned. Over the past couple of years more than 90% of what they've been sanctioning were already sanctioned. :D

As people of Palestine say: "it is better to die once than die every day".

(Finally! You made a post that is on-topic.)

You are right, there are other things that are going on in the fuel market but read OP again, the point is that as a major diesel exporter Russia has been disrupting the market so that they can keep the pressure up on EU economy by also disrupting the economy as it is affected by diesel price.
They didn't even halt exports, it was a temporary ban which I believe was partially lifted after it successfully created the disruption they hoped for.

This is not the only disruption and not the only market and it is not only Russia disrupting different markets! Over the past year we have had every country that produces anything doing something to disrupt that market and play with prices.
We have oil and gas producers from Arabs to Americans messing with the energy market.
We have rice producers like India messing with rice price.
We have grain producers from Russia to a couple of East Asian countries messing with grain prices (remember the cooking oil shenanigans).
We have sugar producers disrupting the market specially after the El Nino hurricane hit some of them.
and so on...

The reason is cut and dry, resource-rich countries are target by many a colonizer for their respurces, and when someone tries to take shit from you, you always retaliate asan answer. As for coups and civil wars, the same could be said as well. Everyone’s got their own wars to wage cause all of them think they can govern the country better than the ones seated. When they finally get the opportunity like what happened with the Taliban they suddenly realize that it’s not just approving this and approving that within the government.

Palestine urges every other country on the planet to take its side but no one will since Israel is a formidable military force. Only way we can see an end in this god forsaken war is if someone drops a nuke on the other, and we know which one owns the warheads.

What Russia is doing now, or rather started doing 2 years ago, is more correctly called "economic terrorism". The goal is very clear - not being able to work honestly on the market and in the community, it is necessary to look for ways to artificially increase the price of those products that Russia can still sell. This is what happened with gas in the EU, and this is what is happening with oil now.
But as we all know - after almost 2000 dollars per 1000 cubic meters from GazProm and Russia's demarche with gas supplies (although Putin claims that "sanctions were imposed against Russia in the gas industry"). :) ) the EU simply changed suppliers, and now there is more than enough gas, and the price has fallen to about 250 dollars per 1000 cubic meters.

We can also remember the same attempt but on the grain market. the result is similar to the "gas project" - it did not work :)

The oil market is of course different from the gas market, as oil reserves are not as widely available as gas, but.... I think this game will also end sooner or later. But now someone really wants to "light up" the East to drive up oil prices even more....

Yes, we still have difficult years ahead of us, but I believe that common sense will prevail.

I see that the USA is very keen on the energy file, and although the region and the countries that export these resources are areas of conflict, the United States still maintains a line of return to these countries. Let us take an example.
Iraq: The information mentioned about Kurdistan is inaccurate. On the contrary, despite the impact of the conflict in the US and Iran, there are still open channels for supplying oil and gas.
Russia: The price ceiling plan aims mainly to put pressure on Russia, but does not aim to stop oil exports.
Lebanon: Despite the clear conflict between some Lebanese forces in Israel and Lebanon, there is still an avoidance of igniting the region.
Palestine and the Arabs: There was a fear that the hostilities against the Palestinians in Gaza would be the beginning of igniting a war in the region, and yet the United States was pressing for that not to happen.
In short, it is an election year and the states will make every effort to make oil less than $100, and all the oil-producing countries are trying to reach security understandings in exchange for an oil price below $100.

At much smaller capacity now and under the full control of the Iraqi authorities not the separatist occupying the region and controlling the resources mass exporting it cheaply to EU pocketing the money themselves.

I said they are "poking" their enemy. Over the past day or two the Lebanese forces wiped out 5 major Israeli bases in Northern Occupied Palestine near the Lebanese border, these are mostly the radar and spying bases with high troop concentrations.
Region is not gonna see any conflict unless US gets involved, which they won't.

Quite the opposite, they are actually trying to increase the oil price and keep it up.
Check out their endless efforts in decreasing production willingly over the past year. You see it not only benefits them to sell their resources at a much higher price but also it helps them put pressure on US economy to force them to leave their region so that stability can come back.

I doubt there is much of security understanding that the middle eastern countries can reach with the USA anymore. US has shown more than a few times that they can barely recognize their left bum from their right when it comes to military strategizing and fulfilling political objectives. The middle east countries are far more concerned about diversifying their economies away from oil.

Decreasing production is just a way to not let oil prices crash. Its their lifeblood till they can successfully diversify their economies, which itself is a huge task but the gulf is well aware of that and is deploying resources towards that. As far as US presence is concerned, i doubt anybody wants anything to do with the shit show that American society and culture is turning into. At one point, it stood for innovation and values; today its simply about money, influence and shenanigans. I doubt they very much care about whatever 'influence' the US has left at present.

Yes, last year Russia actually destroyed some world markets through its actions, because it wanted to establish a new world order. And it began with an attempt to seize Ukraine, an attempt to destroy this state and the Kremlin’s desire to annex its territories to its renewed empire. If this succeeded, then the next targets of Russia's attack would be Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and also, depending on the unfolding events, Poland.
Simultaneously with the military invasion of Ukraine, Russia began to blackmail European countries, which were firmly on the oil and gas hook, by reducing oil and gas supplies so that Europe would not prevent it from destroying Ukraine. Most likely, this plan would have succeeded, and the new world order would have been based on wars, chaos and violence, the absorption of weak states by stronger ones.
Europe and even the United States and its allies have already come to terms with the possible seizure of Ukraine and offered its President Zelensky to leave the country and offered weapons only for waging guerrilla warfare under conditions of complete occupation.

But the cards of all the players of the new and old order were changed by the stubborn and heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people and their armed forces to the forces of the Russian occupiers, superior in all aspects. Only after seeing that the Ukrainians were capable of long-term resistance (not even victory at that time), the United States and Europe began to increase various assistance to Ukraine, if only in order to deplete the military and economic potential of Russia through the hands of the Ukrainians and reduce the likelihood of a military conflict with them. Now they have already realized that without eliminating the military threat through its destruction or at least long-term neutralization, there cannot be a civilized order based on respect for the sovereignty of the territorial integrity of states.

But Russia and its ally Iran do not give up their attempts to destabilize the world and the events of the attack on Israel, where they were active participants in the preparation of such an attack, are confirmation of this.

The following news is kind of off-topic but....
The US and Venezuela have agreed on a deal where the US eases oil sanctions and Venezuela holds internationally supervised elections.
Venezuela is the No. 1 country in terms of proven oil reserves (17.5% of the world's).

Apparently Maduro has had enough of the show and populism and realized that this is not the way to go.... To be more precise, he realized that the "joy of the people" from his rule can be "unpleasant continuation". The right way out is to come to a civilized framework, hold civilized elections, and return to a civilized market. Venezuela needs money and investments now. The country and its people deserve a normal life, the more so they have everything for it, they just need to manage it wisely.  And with democratic changes and good initiatives - Venezuela has excellent prospects. And so does the oil market. or rather the market has good prospects, the manipulators have bad ones !

So while on one side of the earth they are engaged in sabotage, on the other side they are creating, or at least laying the foundation for it.

let me share another PoV regarding the situation in occupied Palestine concerning other countries and corridors:

As I pointed out in my other topic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5466314.0) the biggest mistake any country can make these days is not accepting that the Old World Order is officially dead and in this transitional phase to the New World Order we only have a handful of "players" and the rest of the countries have to choose their side and play for one of these "teams". Preferably for the more powerful winning side.
In this "game" there are only two sides, East and West with West having only one player (US) while the East has 3 (Russia, China, Iran).
At this time if a country is geographically located in the East and is playing for the West (and vice versa), they will have to face the consequences. This is why we can no longer have any country that tries to play in the middle or stay neutral. This is why a country like Turkey for example that plays in the middle faces 80%-100% inflation, negative foreign reserves and is up to its neck in debt. This is why Poland, even small countries like Lithuania and Latvia have chosen side and are actively playing for that side. This is why we see Japanese laws are changing and Japan is being armed for war (for the Western side!). and so on...

Case in point the 2023 G20 summit. When some people were celebrating G20 summit with the Arabs and Indians participation with loads of propaganda in the mainstream media, what none of them realized (or wanted to hear) was that the decisions made in G20 was part of the Western puzzle which meant Eastern countries that participated in it, sooner or later would have to face the consequences of playing for the other side.
This was also clear from the fact that neither one of the 3 Eastern "players" were in it. That is: Russian president did not participate, neither did Chinese and Iran has never been part of it.

So when the IMEEC was agreed there, everyone should have expected it to blow up like this. A much longer, more expensive, more costly and far less secure corridor linking India to Europe through UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and finally the terrorist organization Israel. Not only this was economically and logistically stupid but also it was basically declaration of war against the Easter superpowers since it was going against all their corridors.

With Palestine rising up, IMEEC is no more than a fancy dream... and we have to wait to see at what degree these countries can come back to the Eastern controlled corridors that were previously established and agreed upon: namely Iran-Armenia-Georgia-EU, Iran-Turkey-EU, Iran-Iraq-Syria-EU.

P.S. Note that the corridor plan that went up in smokes wasn't just for goods, it also included energy transfer.

All opinions with reasoning have a right to life, it's silly to deny it.  I have one simple question - what in your understanding is the "New World Order"? I just want to understand how you evaluate or understand it. Different readings of the same expression can lead to senseless disputes because of equal perception of the essence. Some people, for example, think that it is "dedollarization" or, for example, "shifting the center of decision-making and influence towards the global South". So I will be glad to hear your position on the meaning of the expression "New World Order" ?

The World Order keeps changing every couple of decades and in that change different countries come to power, some lose their power entirely, sometimes partially. To put in three words, any new world order is the "shift of power". For example the Order before the last was a dual polar world where US and USSR were the powers. Before that it was UK instead of US.

In the New World Order, like other times, the power will shift. To which countries? It is not predictable, we can only speculate. But one thing is certain the last Word Order was the first time the world was unipolar and US reigned for ~30 years. That time has ended which simply means that all the powers US used to have over that time are going to slowly be taken away, some partially and some completely.

One of these powers were of course the Dollar and the endless printing of it followed by exporting the inflation to the rest of the world. In other words dedollarisation is only part of that transition.

But there is a lot more.
For example a lot of supposedly "international" organizations that were in reality American such as United Nations are going to either be dismantled or see a fundamental change to become actually international, maybe even change location to a more neutral place.
Another one would be that same exact acts won't be treated differently. For example when US invades a country it is the same as when Russia invades a country, as opposed to US invasions being called "war for piece" while Russian invasion be called "invasion"!

And a lot more. But how the world is going to be in the New Order remains to be seen because it depends on a lot of things like which players are going to rise to power and how much power each of them are going to have, how each country is going to get through this transitional phase, etc. and the transitional phase is chaotic by nature.

If we are having this consumption of energies in abundance doesn't mean they can't went down in low supply, the most effective utilization for energy is to create an alternative to it and also encourage for recycling of the same energy for the people's use, there are other natural means we can also develope and generate energies from, all these will make the dependent on diesel or premium motor spirit reduced, then we also need to work out means to reduce global warming through the inefficient energy waste to the atmosphere affecting the ecosystem.

Palestine is not a new negative, a repeat of conflict is recognizable as failure by most in and around that situation.  'US strategic oil reserves is at its lowest '   That part is more relevant to the argument as it should be the end of a program of selling, the reasons for energy price falling is long term and selling reserves has not altered that.  USA itself has an excess of gas, distributing that is occurring but natural gas is harder to supply the further across the world it is that requires it.
  We're really referring to commodity cost vs fiat inflation, prices will rise no matter what.   Alongside that the markets nationally are developing but not fast enough to meet demand overall especially in Asia I think there is the greatest shortage and demand rise with little supply in India or China.

The war between Israel and Hamas actually complicates matters more. The United States will support Israel and therefore the E.U. will also support Israel, and with oil-rich regions like Saudi Arabia and Iran supporting Palestine.

I believe the result might be, all deals between Saudi Arabia and the United States/Israel to increase oil production will be thrown out the window. There's probably going to be ANOTHER Oil Embargo as a possibilty.

Oil Embargo during 1973, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

The Saudi regime is a US backed dictatorship that is forced to support Israel. However, the cost of this support is seen over the past 12 days. Not to mention the people of Arabia support Palestine, despite the dictators. This makes things very complicated.
Not to mention Yemen, the country Saudi regime invaded (9 years) and has a beef with them is ready to find an excuse to break the cease fire and bomb them back to stone ages.
In short the Saudi regime is forced to support Palestine at least with empty words, they don't actually support it.

Two days ago I would have said we are far from the possibility of an embargo, but because of how things change very quickly today we are much closer.

The tensions are rising very fast after the Israeli terrorists murdered over a thousand innocent people taking shelter in a Red Cross sanctioned hospital last night.

Even more so after Biden practically signed the death warrant of every single CENTCOM servicemember by officially saying they stand with the terrorists.
US bases in Iraq are being shelled as we speak (at least two airbases the Al-Harir and Al-Asad). Also Jordanians have stormed both US and Israeli embassies. Same in Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, etc.

The events of next 24-48 hours can determine the size of this war. For example if US decides to respond to these small attacks, the attacks on US bases would increase in number and strength. Like what happened a couple of months ago in Syria.

1. Regarding "world order", I have a slightly different picture and considerations, and therefore we are likely to talk about different things, and therefore we will never come to a result :)
Let me explain what I mean by the phrase "world order":
I will not go back to the times of Ancient Greece, I will choose 20-21 centuries, where it can be clearly and verifiably shown.
The world order after the First World War we may not take into account, but we can mention it. Then there was the longest period of the agreed "world order" - the "Yalta-Posdam" period. But this world order ended around 1989-1991 (the fall of the Berlin Wall + the collapse of the USSR). After that there were several attempts to create a new "world order". Not even attempts, but the features of a new world order/order began to "emerge". And yes, here we can recognize - the decrease of influence of the WESTERN WORLD, not only the USA, because the USA is not the world hegemon, no matter how much someone would like it. The world is becoming multipolar. But... not everyone sees it the same way. For example, China believes that the world became not MONOPOLAR after the collapse of the USSR, but BIPOLAR, where the tops are the US and China. Now there is a division of the world into 2 clearly defined "camps" - the Global West and the Global South. But even here everything is not very clear and understandable yet. Plus a third "hole in the world" is emerging - rogue countries together with terrorist countries of all types - from classical to economic terrorists, plus saboteurs and corrupt politicians/regimes.  
2 From your description it is more correct to speak not about the world order but about "US hegemony", although this is also debatable :)
3. Regarding "the US invades". I won't discuss the causes and effects and results now. But I will say one thing - the USA in the 20th-21st century did not invade a single millimeter of foreign territory to itself. Do you feel the difference? So the example is clearly not the best, especially in comparison with Russia. By the way - Britain/France/.... and many other "enslavers of foreign territories", in the second half of the 20th century gave freedom to all their colonial territories. And Russia? :)

Didn't Saudi Arabia, or was it one of the other Arabian Nations, cancel their oil supply deal with Israel and that they started talking to Iran, thanks to China's help?

I should do more DYOR.


Ser, I believe we as forum members should try to post our personal opinions more objectively. We can't do finger-pointing and name-calling to one side or the other. There might be some forum members reading the topic who's from Israel. It isn't they're fault, nor do they support war.

Washington announced the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela's oil, gas and gold mining sectors after President Nicolas Maduro's government and the opposition agreed to hold free elections. The U.S. is trying to increase supplies to the global oil market, where Saudi Arabia and Russia have managed to raise prices by restricting production and exports.

True, Venezuela's oil sector is in dire straits due to chronic underinvestment, corruption and sanctions, so it will only be able to increase production to a limited extent in the near future.

The day before, Maduro's representatives agreed with the United Platform - opposition politicians supported by the United States - to hold presidential elections in the second half of 2024. International observers will be invited to monitor them.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/10/19/ssha-snyali-sanktsii-s-venesuelskoi-nefti-a110518

This means that in the near future, both social and economic situation in the country will change. And so will the oil market.
...unless, of course, the Venezuelan population decides to experiment on themselves once again and elect another populist socialist.

Trying to change the existing world order is actually a very bloody path and will cost humanity dearly. If humanity survives this period at all. Now psychics, esotericists and other seers are already clearly predicting that in the next decade we will be faced with very threatening events. This process began with an attack on Ukraine, continued with an attack on Israel, and will certainly end in a general war, where the main opposing forces will be the United States and China. Moreover, a very realistic scenario in this war would be the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, if the New World Order is established in terms of changes in global power, it will look completely different than many now imagine.

Was that truly the reason? Or is the U.S. expecting an oil embargo from the alliance that's building in the Middle East against Israel and its allies? 8)

They probably don't care about the "free elections". They're just using that to make themselves not look in despair, which they truly are.


Venezuela could also decide to cooperate with China/Russia and RAISE the price of their oil. The U.S. doesn't have the power of negotiation.

I believe if that happens, then inflation will rise, and Jerome Powell would have to increase interest rates again.

There was the "normalization with Israel" that was canceled (or rather went behind curtains again) the day Saudi Aramco went up in smokes when Yemen attacked it, then the Saudi regime came to Iran on all fours with China brokering the meeting.
However, they still have relations ("behind curtains") with the apartheid Zionist regime and sell them energy even if some deals here and there may have fallen through.

I see what you mean but I respectfully disagree. Lets see two facts:

First when you say "someone from Israel" we are not talking about natives of a region in the world who have roots there. We are talking about immigrants who came from different parts of the world to occupy other people's homes by force and at gunpoint.

Secondly, they claim to have democracy and in a democracy people are both aware of and are OK with what their regime does, specially when they willingly and knowingly migrate to live under the rule of that regime. The Zionist regime is globally recognized as apartheid, not yesterday but many years ago. The ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by the regime is also not hidden to anyone.
So when the regime commits atrocities openly and proudly, the blood of their victims is on all their hands. If they don't want that, they should go back home.

It is interesting how desperate United States is for energy that they have lifted sanctions on Iran's strategic partner ;) and only sanctions on Energy Sector and not anything else like the basic needs of the Venezuelans that they can't have access to just because they are sanctioned!
US is not even releasing the money they stole from Venezuelan people (the money blocked in US banks) that could significantly improve the country's economy!!!

As for elections, to me it sounds like another US backed coup is on the way to try and install a US puppet in this oil rich country! I hope Maduro knows what he's doing.

In any case I'm very curious to see how this all turns out. And whether Venezuela would actually increase production or is it even capable of increasing production to replace the millions of barrels of oil per day that has already been cut by the OPEC countries and may be cut more in the future!
Statistics say no! The amount of bpd that Saudi alone has decreased is more than the ATH of Venezuela oil production...

Actually the process is much longer than that. It started in early 2000's when US decided to invade Iraq and kill over a million people while wasting about $10 trillion in West Asia. That was the start of the downfall of United States as the only hegemony of the past 30 years in the Old World Order.

In case you haven't understood yet: "free" elections don't exist anymore. It's either Maduro will control the elections or the US-backed opposition. Freedom and democracy are a hoax, a fairy tale for naive kids. Democracy doesn't exist, even in the US.

In Venezuela, the US used the same scenario as they later used in Belarus. A young pro-American politician (Guaido) announced that elections were fraudulent and declared himself a democratically-elected president. I can predict something similar will happen in 2024.   

I would be very careful comparing the elections in Venezuela and Belarus.
 
If in Venezuela it was pure populism and cheap promises that the country's residents "fell for". During the elections he promised to double the minimum wage, as well as to forgive his fellow citizens debts on loans received for mortgages and housing construction.  There were also less populist promises - to carry out constitutional reform, to cleanse the country of corruption and abuse of political elites, to create a democratic society of social justice, to involve the masses in governing the state ...
But, as they say, "to promise is not to marry" :)


What he had enough of after the elections - Maduro issued an order to arrest the owners of retail chains selling electrical household goods. All the goods were sold off by the police and army for 10% of the normal price. He attributed the decision to the fact that the retailers were overcharging for the goods. A simple, rudimentary attempt to buy "loyalty".
However, he was not enough for more, his promises were not fulfilled, and further joy was replaced by the "torment of existence" in a degenerating economy.

In Belarus, the state resources (civil servants), stupid falsification and pressing of any opposition were used.

Now in Venezuela there will be transparent elections, devoid of primitive propaganda, and people will have a chance to think before casting their vote.  Sometimes you have to learn a lesson for your stupidity..... I think the people of Venezuela will draw conclusions and make the right choice.

Tensions in West Asia went up a notch overnight.
- I counted at least a dozen attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria with US casualties (eg. 2 KIA in Deir ez-Zor). Some of the US bases that are targeted are around the energy fields in Syria that US has been stealing their resources. For example the base in Koniko (gas fields). The propaganda arm of CENTCOM has only admitted to two drone attacks and some injuries*!
- The biggest news came out in the middle of the night. The armed forces of Yemen do not mess around. They've shot at least 2 cruise missiles in the north direction although the details has not yet come out. We don't know if the target was USS Carney in Red Sea or occupiers position in occupied Palestine.

* The official statements were too mellow when it says "we are vigilantly monitoring the situation" whereas in the past they "vowed retaliation", "a harsh response", etc. not that they ever dared do anything for the other ~6000 times US bases were attacked in the first half of this year, but at least the statements were different when they admitted to being attacked.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3561125/us-forces-defend-against-drones-in-iraq/

---

P.S. Of course this all means oil price got solidified above $90 and it's not gonna come down any time soon. With the possibility of rising higher if the tensions keep growing like this.

I don't care about what's political-correct way of discerning the situation. I'm merely saying let's stop the name-calling/finger-pointing. There are real deaths and casualties from BOTH sides of the war. Let's stop spreading/augmenting the hate, and continue to learn from each other.


The winner IS, Inflation through reinflation. 8)

Reinflation = More Rate Hikes.

More Rate Hikes = Higher Probability of Recession.

BUT if Inflation is "sticky", then Stagflation.

If Stagflation = Stores of value assets might be more valuable, including Bitcoin.

The US doesn't need it, it has quite enough of its own reserves. What they are worried about is the destabilization that a couple of rogue countries are now trying to cause by stoking the fires of a new global war in the Middle East.
Plus, the huge amount of oil from Venezuela is guaranteed to stabilize the world market, whatever the economic terrorists are up to. More precisely, their further attempts to influence by reducing production will create a problem only for these countries themselves :)

The fact that NOW Venezuela does not give much oil to the market is a matter that can be easily corrected, as the largest proven oil reserves and easy enough production will allow to catch up quickly and to reach the required production volumes.

And Venezuela, after the "skillful rule of Maduro" now needs to restore the economy, raise the standard of living, restore what was ruined by Maduro's rule. And oil will be the "magic wand" that will help to solve the problems of the population and the economy FAST and QUALITATELY.
I wish the people of Venezuela not to make any more mistakes, not to choose populists, and to make the right choice, which will lead to prosperity and life in a rich, developed country !

I believe not, unless the U.S. starts drilling the Oil within their own region, WHICH they will never do as a matter of policy, BUT they will start a war, be a direct war or a proxy-war through Israel, to protect the "sanctity" of the Petro-Dollar.


Although, China had diplomatic and economic talks with Venezuela, and signed an agreement of building a special economic zone in Venezuela for economy, trade, and technology.

Plus everyone already knows that there's a probability that China and Russia are directing a financial war against the United States, through the Middle East, through Asia, through the Russo-Ukraine war, to weaken the Dollar and therefore also weakening the U.S.

How about you try and use some real numbers and facts instead of saying random stuff, and using terms like "rogue countries" isn't proving your point the way you hope it does LOL although I agree that the rogue regime in Washington has started the 2 ongoing proxy wars with the East.

Back to the points. US strategic oil reserves are currently at the lowest ever since 1983 and it would take them years of mass imports to be able to fill it up again.
US oil is also a very heavy oil that is extremely difficult to extract and even harder to refine. Hence the high cost. This is exactly why US has always been invading oil rich countries murdering millions to steal their oil!
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-energy-secretary-says-it-could-take-years-refill-oil-reserve-2023-03-23/

I already debunked this in the post you quoted without reading :P
Here is with some numbers:
From the ATH to today Venezuela's oil production has decreased by about 2.5 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia alone, in the past year+ has reduced production by 3 million bpd.
So right there alone there is a 0.5 million bpd deficit even if they can bring the production up to the ATH which is unlikely!
OPEC+ countries combined have reduced production more than that (so the actual deficit is actually higher than 0.5 million bpd) and they plan on reducing it more.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265185/oil-production-in-venezuela-in-barrels-per-day/

Also Venezuela oil is similar to US oil, heavy, hard to extract and refine...

You mean because of the economic war and coups the "rogue regime in Washington" imposed on the country.

Now I'm sure you didn't read anything in my comment you quoted specifically about the sanctions that were never removed to actually let the quality of life improve after people get their stolen money back from the thieves in Washington! And more importantly after they are allowed to go back to international trading with other countries that was and still is prevented by US and will continue being prevented by US even if they install their puppet in office.

US just wants their oil to desperately try and fix its own economy. Nothing is going to change in Venezuela with or without Maduro.
The sanctions haven't even been removed on the oil sector, since they are only allowed to hand over their oil to US not anybody they like. For example US does not allow Venezuela to sell their oil to India or China :D
Even if they sell their oil to US they still won't receive the money because it will go to US banks and remain there with US deciding whether they like to give a tiny portion of their own money back or not!

I beg to differ. War in the Middle East will create a lot of problems all over the world. This ranges from real problems in the oil market to mass riots of migrants in the EU countries that gave them shelter.
I'll digress a bit here - a question, tell me, why do you think migrants from Muslim countries do not flee to "native" nearest countries, similar in faith and mentality, and these countries do not accept their brothers" ? It's a question to ponder :)

So, the US could probably start a war, but it would not be profitable for them. It would be easier for them to make a deal with Maduro and easily get cheap oil from Venezuela for pennies. So your theory is a bit "lame".....





Regarding China. China and its investment and friendship is a gift. I think you don't need to be told about Sri Lanka and Chinese investments. They are trying to do the same thing everywhere. And Venezuela is even more attractive for them, as it is the largest country in terms of oil reserves. Plus, the Chinese economy is in a very difficult state right now and the prospects are not "bright" at all.... They need to look for cheap, highly liquid resources to save their economy. So if I were Venezuela, I would think 10 times before getting involved in "friendship with China".
PS By the way, Russia has also become a raw material appendage for China to save its economy.... But the truth is that Russia is not as useful as one might think :)

The Parliament of Pakistan just threatened the apartheid Zionist regime occupying Palestine with a nuclear strike. They basically threatened that if the war crimes against civilians doesn't end soon, they will use their nukes! :o

I don't want to read too much into this but it is a good indication of the growing global anger that's forming towards the Zionists and the more children the Zionists murder the higher the tensions in the most resource filled region of the world is going to go. Many countries have already kicked them out, some burnt the regime's embassies.

Some are already speculating another rise in the oil market.

1. What don’t you like about the term “rogue countries”? Does he distort the essence or is “out of place”? In my opinion, this characterizes the situation very accurately. Yes, you may not like it, but your opinion is not the only correct one :)

2. I agree - oil reserves in the United States have been declining, but there are quite understandable reasons for this. And Venezuela can help restore them very quickly. “The lowest figure since 1983” is not a synonym for “boss, everything is gone, the oil has run out, we’re screwed!” It's true ? :) Well, one more thing - the article is the PERSONAL opinion of Timothy Gardner, plus he spoke about this in MARCH, when the market was really “sausaging”. Well, the most important thing is that you are not the only one who has the Internet and Reuters. Read the latest news: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-falls-further-us-stock-build-easing-supply-concerns-2023-10-12/
Is it really completely different information after 7 months? :)

3. Well, they reduced production. But you probably saw the trends in oil? And before the terrorist attack on Israel and the increase in tension in the region, it did not increase in price in proportion to the decrease in production, right? :) Yes, there was a jump in September, but .. Look at the graphs and show the correlation of oil prices with a decrease in production? :)

4. "You mean because of the economic war and coups the "rogue regime in Washington" imposed on the country." - you can manipulate words as much as you like, but it will not change the reality :) Just clarify in connection with what and against whom specifically the US sanctions were imposed. And most importantly - for what? . Therefore, I think that I can’t answer a question that doesn’t exist...
By the way, this is the answer to your next accusation that someone allegedly stole money from people :)

PS in the modern world it is pointless to try to manipulate and twist events through wishful thinking, sorry, but this is a fact... I understand that you want to find an explanation where “the USA is to blame for everything,” but the reality is different. It’s like some people went out of their way to come up with hundreds of options to justify Russia’s terrorist attack on Ukraine. From the fact that they allegedly defended the “Russian-speaking population” and “Ukraine was joining NATO” to “Ukraine was preparing to attack Russia.” It looks extremely stupid, as does the attempt to attribute all the negativity to the USA

Of course you would be very careful. You'd never bite the hand that feeds you haha...  ;D

Except you, everyone else can see the similarities. In both countries there were riots, triggered by US puppets (Tsikhanovskaya and Guaido) after allegedly "winning" the elections. The US are interested in both countries: Venezuela has oil, Belarus is neighboring Russia. In both cases US puppets ran away after the failed coup: Guaido now lives in Miami, Tsikhanovskaya in the EU. I can go on... ;D

Of course, they will. The only right choice. The cookies are ready and waiting...  ;D

Covid hit, the Government printed more money to save their country, Interest rate came out as an act against the inflation. War out the price of oil gas even wheat is on the rise.

Today economics is hard to predict. But I do believe there is someone or some people trying to control the world.


Who Control the energy can control the whole continent

But I'm not saying the U.S. will start either a direct war, or a proxy war, because they want that. They'll start a war because they are provoked to.

Hamas is an ally of Iran, which, off the record, might be giving financial support to the group. Syria, which has the support of Russia, might join Iran in the provocation of war. And if Russia is allegedly in a war through proxy, the U.S. allies will also join, WHICH will make China join too, because of their economic interests in Russia and Iran.

There's Saudi Arabia, which already showed support for Palestine.

From an economic viewpoint, they have countries against the U.S. and its allies, which are main producers of Crude Oil in OPEC. If they wanted to defeat the U.S. they would use their position as main oil-producing countries as weapon.

What should the U.S. do, what could they do?

- WAR

There's no choice if they are provoked.


If there's war in the Middle East that involved China and Russia, which side would Venezuela support? I believe not the U.S.

The way you talk about US, it's as if they didn't put dictators on countries back in the 60s or secretly supplied weapons to insurgents around the world, they make you think that they don't have the power to negotiate but their military might and foreign influence isn't really something that anyone can just dismiss, I mean in our country, our last president was a staunch opposition of US having a presence in the country but the joint military exercise was still operational.

Honestly, but I really sometimes have a strong feeling that you are either in an alternate consciousness (let's say strong drugs) or you are just a super infantile boy  ;D. And with learned, methodical slogans that you shove everywhere. Well, plus a huge set of clichés or narratives - "everybody knows", "cookies", ....

PS About puppets, for some reason you forgot to add - Yanukovych, Azarov and others are cowardly sitting in Russia :)

I'm not saying that the United States has no power over countries like Venezuela, but it's becoming very probable that their "power"/political stronghold is not as powerful as it was. Venezuela is talking to China as partner in economic and political matters. Perhaps that's the seed for Venezuela to later be a military partner? They're not as scared as they were in the past. Why? Because China and Russia are starting to advance militarily and politically, and their advancing faster today than during the start of the century.

It's interesting to hear reasoned and thoughtful opinions. Yes, I agree in this context that some forces want to build a world of chaos and lawlessness, failing to fit into the world system and being complex because of their status.
And the attempt to drag the US into a global massacre is a "wonderful idea", which will eventually involve all NATO countries, terrorist groups and "hesitant" countries, etc.

Regarding China - I don't think that they, at least in today's situation, will dare to have a direct military confrontation with the US. On the one hand, for such totalitarian regimes with a troubled economy, war is a "good solution" to internal problems, but.... What will China get out of it? Ruined world economy, ruined China (war always affects the territories of both sides), very difficult decades of recovery and difficult times.
 
I would rather believe in its role as an "outside observer", because for China the weakening of the US and the "global west" by the hands of Russia, Iran and other terrorist states is a more favorable event than a direct confrontation, for which the US and the "global west" will have to fight a war.

Yes, it is clear that Saudi Arabia will support Palestine. Which country that clearly sees the cruelty of the Israeli Zionists colonizing the Palestinian people for decades with the loss of civilian lives will remain silent? The UN and US even turned a blind eye to this incident.

It's really very sensitive here. Even if a war occurs, I'm also not sure if their quest will be obtained? especially oil resources. What exists will trigger a nuclear war if tensions and provocations continue, in the worst case, many countries will be destroyed as well as the resources they have. This will clearly accelerate pollution and radiation, useless environmental groups and go green campaigns.

It is very unfortunate because the ambition of a group of individuals has to sacrifice many lives and even the balance of the world.

If you had said one thing right in your life, this one is it. Facts remain facts whether you like them or not ;)

---cough---Zolfaghar-class missile boats---cough---- ::)

I'm not so sure we can see any support whatsoever!
For example in the ongoing conflict the only thing Saudi regime sent Gaza was bodybags! that has angered a lot of Arabs over the past week. They haven't even accepted the oil embargo on the apartheid regime which angered Arabs even more!

[/quote]

Thank you for finally realizing the reality :)
As I understand it, that’s why they didn’t deny it:
1. The data you provided on US reserves was deliberately provided “from the past”, and my data from “today” reflects reality
2. Russia, North Korea, Iran and some others are international rogue countries
3. “rogue regime in Washington” is simply an attempt to pass off a dream as reality. And the lack of an answer to the key question about the reasons and objects of sanctions remained unanswered on your part, due to the understanding that manipulations will not work, they will easily be defeated by real facts

Thank you, and I am sincerely glad that you are starting to return to a real assessment of events :)

Your desperation is amusing :D
You think US regime could magically refill the strategic supplies in a world with a much higher oil demand than the supply over the past year and your whole argument is that the link I posted was old lol. The only thing that has changed from the time of that article to today is that US has released more of its strategic supply and the global supply has decreased more...

Here is another article from this month:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/biden-oil-reserve-fuels-00121298
It even has some data with a chart that your desperate mind can fathom easier. BTW the source of the data is a .gov site or in other words it is an official data released by the US government and it is up to date:
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/10/22/TQmWc.jpeg


Now go back and read this "old" article again:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-energy-secretary-says-it-could-take-years-refill-oil-reserve-2023-03-23/
While looking at the official data from United States Energy Information Administration:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
And see that you were right without even knowing when you said the article is old, US strategic supplies has decreased by another 30 million barrels ever since that article ;D

After you did that, go back and read your own post again, you were more right than you can imagine: "it is pointless to try to manipulate and twist events through wishful thinking" LOL

There have been a continuous request on giving attention to the effect of energy crisis causing global warming but the government aren't paying much attention to some of the remedies in dealing with these effects because they are still the ones in charge, while they have taken it a responsibility to keep causing alot of FUD on the use of bitcoin energy required for it mining purpose, this is nothing but being inconsiderate enough because they feels this kind of attack can cause a distruct from the bitcoin network if they persist in saying bitcoin energy demand is alarming and also not environmentally friendly.

It really didnt make so much sense to sell the reserves in summer imo, it should be kept for exceptional events and to even out the possible deficit in heating oil and fuel over winter surely.   I realize summer can be higher demand also but I think they have sold into the inflationary figures to try and suppress the worst of that set of price rises as fuel is related to retail and distribution costs.
  They have gone a bit too far if not also increasing production, if you know the reserves will be able to refill with future production increases thats a strategy but if you just sell regardless of any other factors to try and alter a price, its only temporary and the market will rebound will oil higher and maybe more then usual.

I highly highly highly doubt that they would be stupid enough to even attempt something like that. First of all, the whole logic doesn't really make sense, if you hit Israel with a nuke then you kill Palestine as well, all the people there will die, I mean I am not getting into political results of it and all that just yet, I am saying a nuke can't just kill people in one nation and not really bother anyone in the other nation, even if you manage to kill every single human at Israel where are you hitting this that no Palestinian ever dies?

You are killing innocent Arabic people as well, that's the logical problem there. Secondly, if they ever attempt to do that, which they won't, that opens the door to be hit back with a nuke, and that's just killed all of them too, so this makes absolutely no logic.

I honestly can't understand what you're trying to prove. I'm gonna assume "the U.S. has a problem"? :) Well, there aren't any. The decline in oil reserves is due to the situation on the market, when the price went up, and the US had huge reserves, which were sold to the foreign market, on which the US made a great profit.
If you look further into the article you suggested, you will notice that the US started to accumulate oil.

I'll just add a couple of lines to that:

TOP 10 COUNTRIES IN OIL PRODUCTION:
Place Country Million barrels per day Market share
#1 USA 12744 15.8%

TOP 10 COUNTRIES BY OIL RESERVES
Place Country Billion barrels Market share
#1 Venezuela 32.81 18%

LIST OF COUNTRIES BY CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Country Period Value Unit of measure Previous value
USA Jul. 2023 12991 BBL/D/1K 12844

This information is quite enough for me to understand what the USA is doing - they earned in the crisis, and not in yuan or rupees, but in dollars, unlike some "fighters against world imperialism" :)
Now the U.S. will create comfortable conditions for pumping oil from Venezuela into the market. As a result, OPEC+ and Co. reduce oil production, hoping for a rise in price. If oil rises - USA will benefit as it will control oil from Venezuela. If oil does not grow - the US still benefits, as US+Venezuela oil compensates for the shortfall in OPEC+ oil :))

I would assume that its not really as big of a deal as you may think because in the end we are talking about a situation that is a bit more personal and doesn't really need anything big. The world is going towards renewable energy more than ever, and I am sure that there are still things like airplanes and factories that uses diesel as well so I am not saying its going to end anytime soon, but the fact that we have more EV that uses non-diesel options, it is going to be clear that Russia will be less and less needed.

When the supply is there and demand gets low, the price gets lower, Russia will have a supply, but they won't have the same demand, so they will need to lower the price to be able to sell enough, that's the important part. I believe that it is going to be hard to handle it  for them because they depend on their resources to be able to stay powerful, and when their resources do not worth as much, and they are disliked, that is going to end up badly for them.

China as an "outside observer" without "some" involvement wouldn't make them an ally of Russia, Iran, and the other nation-states that are starting show increased aggressiveness against the United States and its allies. Because if China isn't involved, then they're the next target for both the U.S. AND Russia.

Plus, of course from China's viewpoint, it's not going to be a direct military war. It's a financial war. The United States is in a monetary dilemma. They need to turn on the money printer to pay the debt and to have capital or the wars, but that would risk hyperinflation. China, Russia, and its allies will attack the U.S. where it will truly hurt =high Crude Oil prices/Oil embargo 2.0.

Russo-Sino Plan might be to,

- Provoke war for the United States, Israel, and its allies in the Middle East
- Unite muslim countries/high Crude Oil producing states from OPEC against the U.S., including Saudi Arabia
- Start Oil embargo against the U.S. and its allies

Plus to anyone who needs Crude Oil, just join the Russo-Sino alliance.


👀

Very interesting idea, or even scenario. A sort of "1973 oil crisis. 50 years later."

It's theoretically possible. But in my opinion, it's more of a no than a yes. Let me explain.
In '73, there was a real confrontation between "two different worlds" that had nothing in common. The interconnection of economies, politics, and other things had an almost ethereal connection....
Although...what is exactly the same is the trigger that led to the crisis. Then a "group of aggressive anti-Semites" decided to attack Israel...ended up getting a brutal response, after which they "sat on their asses, among their destroyed armies". By the way, the USSR, as an ideologue of some currents, also participated there, but already in those times habitually said "we are not there" :)
Now the situation is almost identical, only the composition of the "group of aggressive anti-Semites" is different.
But not only the composition has changed. Attitudes, dependencies,.... Those who have "nothing to lose" (Iran, Russia, etc.) who have big internal and external problems are ready to "play war", at the expense of reducing the tension inside (from conscription to the front/slaughter, to repression of those who are dissatisfied with the authorities - "we have a holy war, and you behave like this!"). But other countries are not ready to destroy the world that they have built over the last 50 years, built economies, interconnections, beautiful cities and gave the people of their countries a happy and future-oriented life.  That is why today, a significant part of the Middle East countries, which have a significant weight in the oil market, categorically do not want war - it will destroy their countries. and the fires understand this very well. No, they do not support Israel, but they will not go along with terrorist fanatical groups either. So there will be no support for the "entire Middle East"...And without that, there will be no repeat of the 1973 Oil Crisis. 50 years later." The maximum that will be enough is a SIGNIFICANT localized conflict involving Lebanon, Pakistan, Iran on one side and the US and some other countries on the other.

The only problem that can really create problems is an externally controlled and directed "Arab revolt in the EU". The people there have really played the game of tolerance and kindness, and now they will get a slap on the head for it, from those who were sheltered. Yeah, that's bad. But I hope it will be a good lesson and will push to take unpopular, but NECESSARY decisions (for a long time, by the way), for the survival of the EU....

 And about China. Yes, China now needs to look for "extraordinary steps" to officially "tighten the screws" on the population, as there is an economic crisis ahead. And getting involved in the war in the Middle East, it will have to make a choice - to be on the side of the civilized world, or on the side of terrorist fanatics ? The choice of the second direction is guaranteed to lower the iron shield around China, relative to Western markets. And regional partners are likely to turn away, as they do not remember the word "terrorism" from the best side.... Of course, we can assume that Xi JinPing decided to close the Chinese economy and make it "self-sufficient", but I do not believe in the assumption that he had his brain amputated :))
Yes he will try to "throw wood on the fire", but it will be very careful not to draw much attention to himself as a terrorist collaborator.
The fact is that China and the West (USA) have a "confrontation", but without the USA and its deterrent, China itself will not be able to pull the whole world as a world leader. Plus - China's economy cannot live without Western markets. In a word, it is a symbiosis where both participants bite each other a little, but they will not kill each other as they will die themselves.

The situation in US is the result of a series of bad decisions some of which date back at least 4 decades.
Translated into Bitcoin World, imagine someone who has gotten used to shorting bitcoin because price has been dropping for a long time. But that trend is going to change at some point and when it does if that person can not see the change or refuses to accept the change and continues to short bitcoin while price keeps going up, they continue losing their money.

I've been talking about this a lot lately "rules who refuse to accept the world has changed will pay the price". US regime doesn't want to accept that not only it is not the super power of the world but also the regime doesn't want to accept that it is considered a pariah state by the rest of the world.

For example they think they can bring their aircraft carrier group and scare people in the countries they still occupy into remaining silent when US military steals their oil. But the reality is what's been happening over the past year, US military is being attacked by those people and they can't even defend themselves.
 
Now we can start to understand one of the reasons why US started "releasing" its strategic reserves.
For example the 300,000+ bpd they were stealing from Syria is now at about 50,000 bpd and the little they steal is usually attacked and destroyed before they can get it out. This is one of the reasons why US faced an increasing deficit and had to release the reserves to cover it (I believe it was 4.4 million barrels released per day) and they can only do that for about 4 months.
Of course there are other reasons too but this one is usually overlooked which is why I expanded on it.

US is the biggest oil consumer in the world (more than 20 million barrels per day) and the entire extractable oil the have is only sufficient to cover a little more than 4 years of this kind of consumption. They are also extracting as much as they can and the more you extract, it would make it harder to extract the remainder so the production is expected to fall at some point in the future too.
They already have a big deficit too (between 8 to 10 million bpd) which they cover with imports. When the oil producers like Saudi produce less, when the amount of oil they steal decreases, etc. that deficit grows so they have to release their reserves...

You are right and I said I wouldn't read too much into the threat itself. The point for including it here was to mention one of the indications of the rising tensions in the oil rich region that is going to affect the oil price and consequently everything else, which is the subject we discuss here.
As for the threat itself, it was a necessity because a terrorist organization that owns weapons of mass destruction needs to be reminded that legitimate countries do too.

You do know that Arabs are Semites too, right? :)

...The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman, ordered his court scientists to “explain to the people” not to “discuss the situation in Gaza,” because “Managers know more and better about the situation” and will “deal with this issue” themselves.
Even he understands that he must avoid Hamas, terrorists, and continue to interact with the civilized world. So.. it didn’t work out with support...


Of course, I know that these are peoples of the same origin, I was not raised on textbooks with fake history and made-up “facts”. So ? Do we consider this an “internal conflict of fraternal peoples” and is this their INTERNAL personal problem? Then why are all sorts of terrorists from nearby territories getting in there, let them decide for themselves what is convenient for them? :) Or is this not the case? ;D

I know it's debatable, and I know that I could definitely be wrong with that mere shower-thought, BUT if China and Russia's real objective is to weaken the United States' empire and their politicial strongholds, THEN the time to attack them is NOW, through a proxy war or a direct war. To force the United States into making the wrong set of monetary policies to pay for their war.

The U.S. needs to issue "War Bonds" to fund the war, but the problem - They can't turn on the money printer to buy those bonds (hyperinflationary), and because of the current risks, no foreign country would be stupid enough to buy those bonds unless yields are high enough (unstable economy), WHICH also needs the money printer to pay interest on those bonds.

In today's world, you can expect anything from some countries, even things that are not logical and seem blatantly wrong :)

The only thing I disagree with is that Russia and China are PARTNERS. For China, Russia is just a tool that China can use to "test" or perform some actions that may be painful to the performer. Like a stick to poke a hive of wasps with :) China is a pragmatic and cynical country, which in my opinion does not use the concept of "friendship" or "partnership" in international politics and international relations. China is only interested in personal gain. But this is my personal opinion

Your biggest problem that blinds you to a lot of the facts of this world is your racist tendencies and your hatred of the civilized east. This is most clear in this post of yours. You support US while bashing China while they both are two sides of the same coin! A lot of what these two countries do are exactly the same too! Like (ab)using other countries to fulfill their own interests.

In fact in this world 99% of what you see as "alliance" is just a coalition. Like NATO ;)

This is neither new nor an amazing discovery. Did you previously believe in loyal friendships between countries? As a politician once said, “There are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies, there are permanent interests.”
Russia is exploiting its alliance with China on the basis that they have a common enemy (America, NATO, and the West), and China is taking advantage of this friendship on the basis of the same basis to serve its interests in other ways. It is the same thing that America does when it involves its allies in a war in which they are the most affected, and here I mean the Ukrainian war.
International relations in general are like an ongoing, non-stop cold war. As it is known, “In war and love, anything is permissible.”

I believe not. Politics is always giving and taking, plus Putin would never let Russia be used unless there's something for them, an incentive. "Scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours", a true partnership vs. the United States and its allies.

But if China is truly doing as you posted, then Xi is either stupid or he's merely gambling. Because it risks Russia becoming an enemy from the East. Geo-politically, China NEEDS Russia to be its partner.

How is the mindset that you take for grant when oil is cheap. Now gonna pay up for wasting so much energy to generate all the trivial and non essential things. May be started by stop wasting energy on gaming! Next would streaming video that created zero content values.

Totally expected response when there are no arguments and the truth "cuts your eyes" :)

Let's go back to you and your hysterical statements once again ? So - give an example of my post, where I :
- displaying racist tendencies ?
- show hatred towards the civilized East ?

And at the same time, what in your worldview is the civilized East - a list of countries ? :)

And now, once again, we will be convinced that you are just an empty talker :) Who in the absence of arguments primitively starts insulting and attributing accusations to the interlocutor.....

Even though we as an eastern nation feel that currently we are still doing well regarding energy availability. Because my country does have its own oil mines and is not too dependent on other countries in energy matters because we have everything here to survive the energy crisis. But still we are also disturbed when it comes to one type of food such as wheat which is increasingly expensive in my country. And many foods are made with wheat here. Starting from snacks to heavy meals, you need wheat. So the price increase for several types of food continues to occur due to the impact of the war that occurred and the crisis that occurred in one of the largest wheat producing countries.

But I am optimistic that the economic revival of eastern nations is truly near. Because in the last decade I have seen our economy (ASEAN) here showing more positive results with an average growth of 4-5% amidst the many global economic crises that are currently occurring.

---

Sourch: ekon.go.id (https://ekon.go.id/publikasi/detail/5341/sebagai-salah-satu-titik-terang-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-global-asean-juga-tekankan-pentingnya-upaya-inklusif-dan-kolaboratif-dari-sektor-swasta#:~:text=Perekonomian%20ASEAN%20menunjukkan%20kinerja%20positif,FDI)%20terbesar%20ke%2D2.)

On the one hand, I agree with you, in politics, friendship is more of a symbiosis than an honest, selfless friendship.

But in relation to China/Russia, this is a “one-sided”, unhealthy symbiosis.
I will explain so that it does not look like an unfounded assumption.
For example:
- "Friendship" of the EU. Mutually beneficial coexistence of geographically close countries, with the aim of building a united “compensatory economy”, and opposition to the dollar economy in European countries. There are other points, but I would call these important
- Friendship USA\Israel. There is real mutual benefit here. For the United States, Israel is an element of influence in the East, and Israel receives enormous financial and military assistance. Although I will add - there are a lot of controversial issues in their relationship and even confrontation.
- And our “couple” China and Russia. What is China's benefit from Russia? None! In today's situation, Russia is simply supplying cheap resources in exchange for China's silence and its neutral position on many issues. Well, plus, as I wrote, “a stick for poking” into everything that can lead to problems. Plus a controlled performer of any “dirty deeds”, completely dependent on China. Those. China is carrying out its “dirty deeds” through the hands of Russia. Including attempts to weaken the Western world, the United States, and their influence. There is NO other practical benefit from Russia. as there are no partnerships. Moreover, China has “views” of Russian territory, especially forests, fertile lands and.... WATER! Believe me, it’s only a matter of time before Russia openly or secretly gives up Baikal to China... The only caveat is that China needs Russia whole, not torn apart by the loss in the war against Ukraine. That's why we observe him acting like this.
Those. The relationship between China and Russia is not a partnership with a reservation, but a relationship between Master and Slave.

I believe not, and if that's your opinion, then OK. I respect it. But shower-thought, if China won't truly engage in a real partnership with Russia, and merely want to treat their neighbors as their "slaves", then again as I posted before, Russia can switch sides and attack the "master" in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and immunity from war crimes.

China would need real allies if they truly want to invade and occupy Taiwan. They can't merely treat Russia as a "slave". Perhaps later if they take over and become the THE super power. China going to be like the United States. A bully.

Russia to attack China?! Do you believe this? The only reason is to declare war on China and throw 1 grenade across the border to immediately surrender to China :)

Forget the fairy tale about the “second army of the world”, in Ukraine they have not been able to achieve any noticeable successes in two years, except for the complete destruction of a high-class strike group... Let me clarify - THEIR OWN, Russian group, which entered Ukraine in February 2022, after which collected rabble in Russia from recruits to criminals :)
And to organize “meat assaults” in the war with China, and there are no other options, well, this is the height of idiocy when assessing the number of people in China :)
What can it oppose to China with 1+ billion population, the largest military budget, developed industry, including the military-industrial complex, and... a huge number of Chinese in eastern Russia? This will be the fastest and most idiotic suicide :)

PS And the key question is - who then will buy huge volumes of gas and oil for any money???

In a chaotic period as the World Order changes, all countries will suffer. The degree of it depends on a lot of things one of which is their resources (energy, food, minerals, ...) that can reduce the number of or severity of the issues they are going to face.

Another important thing that I always emphasize is having wise decision makers. People in key roles that can make the best decisions possible in order to get their country over this troubling times.
One of the best decisions that countries around the world have been making is creating these "altarnative" alliances, association, organization or whatever they may be referred to such as ASEAN, BRICS, SCO, etc.

---

On another news, this morning after having sustained more than a hundred casualties in the past week US CENTCOM decided to respond to one of the attacks by an airstrike on a storage facility in Syria.
As I had predicted, this response from US was met with an even heavier response by the Syrian resistance as instead of a small strike using shells or small rockets they used at least 10 ballistic missiles with heavy warheads to attack the US base close to the Al-Omar oil fields in Eastern Syria. The US casualties are expected to be very high.
Good news is that US seems to have gotten the message as they stopped showing any interest in responding to any of the attacks...

My little retarded friend, you forgot that Russia has been fighting the entire Western world in this war. What would Ukraine do without all that military and financial assistance from the west? Without that assistance the war would be long over.

Creating an alliance, association or organization or even a union of countries can indeed strengthen the position of a country, or a group or something similar that has the same interests and goals. Because by forming an alias or organization or something like that, it will make it easier to solve a problem that is being faced. The formation of ASEAN has also strengthened the economy, politics and culture or social in Southeast Asian countries. And now BRICS, which is also more focused on increasing the economic progress of the countries in the group, has actually succeeded in fulfilling its goals. Their economy can be said to remain stable even though the global crisis is hitting the whole world. So it is not surprising that more and more countries want to join BRICS. And because BRICS embraces various continents, currently many ASEAN members are also interested in joining. Arab countries have also shown their interest in joining openly. And in fact, more and more countries joining will also provide economic benefits for each country. And strengthen the position of BRICS in the new global economic order.

Basically, currently the countries that have joined BRICS have quite strong power in the economy. Because many of these countries are even rich in oil mining. Even the joining of Middle Eastern countries will strengthen this economic group (BRICS). It looks like BRICS at the new world order will be an important group that will increasingly be in the spotlight and will get its own quite important stage.

We may soon find out since more and more Western aid is going to the terrorist organization¹ helping them commit genocide in Gaza. Not to mention US itself is going to need a lot of aid defending against the barrage of attacks that has significantly increased ever since last night's terrorist attack on Gaza which was largest to this day. In other words the more they bomb Gaza, the more US bases are going to be bombed: https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/10/28/T4YmT.jpeg

1. For nitpickers: in the last OIC meeting Israel is officially announced as a terrorist organization. Also if you have watched the latest series of speeches in United Nations, increasing number of countries are referring to Israel as a terrorist organization and/or their actions as terrorist attacks.

If indeed a multi-national war, and a deal with the United States and its allies, and their support? OF COURSE YES. It would be a foreign relations disaster for China to treat their Russian neighbor as "Slaves". It would be a laughable mistake.



Probably not, but if it comes to dealing with China, Russia shouldn't be forced to use weapons of mass destruction. Could China truly make such a country their mere "slaves". That again would be laughable, I'm sorry.

Plus about the United States not wanting war vs. Iran. I believe they do. In fact, they have the enemy surrounded. Haha.

https://cdn.imgchest.com/files/3yrgcb3vz34.jpeg

I won't argue about the main part - everyone has the right to their opinion :)
I will answer the question about the use of weapons of mass destruction, and we understand that we are talking about nuclear weapons.
The fact is that, for example, Western developed countries are categorically against the use, because They are well aware that a nuclear war is a stick that will hit both sides, and VERY painfully and for a long time. For countries with developed economies, familiar comfort, stability - even a limited blow to their territory will again throw them into a terrible state. They have something to lose, they are against it. But... they may be forced. Until today, nuclear weapons were weapons of DETERRENCE. But today we see that outright terrorists threaten the world with nuclear weapons. Moreover, they degenerated to the point that they began to threaten nuclear-free countries with nuclear weapons. And it is not surprising that one of the proponents of the concept “the whole world is in nuclear ashes” was surrounded, probably in order to minimize his nuclear terrorist impulses. The second one is of course more difficult. But.. and here China is unlikely to “fit in” with a psychopath waving a nuclear baton. No matter which side China takes in a nuclear war, China will also suffer from a retaliatory strike. It seems to me that for China this is not the best way out of the difficult economic situation that has developed this year....

Yeah it was an Eastern underdeveloped country that dropped two nukes on Japan or used nuclear munitions in Iraq, dropped the MOAB in Afghanistan or is currently using chemical weapons in Palestine :D
The Western "developed" and "democratic" and "human right loving" countries have never done such things.
/end of sarcasm

Speaking of China, some are predicting that they will start annexing Taiwan during the US election process...

And that's actually part of the point being made in the topic. China, which is a Nuclear Power, can't make another country, Russia, which is another Nuclear Power, bow down and make it their "slaves". That would be a catastrophe in foreign relations.

Plus China will just put themselves in a bad geo-political situaton. Japan in the West, Russia in the East, and India in the South? Where can China's military go?

The fact that Russia is at war in Ukraine with the entire Western world is fairy tales for Russians, who need to be given some kind of justification for why Ukraine was not captured in a few days, as planned in the Kremlin. Let me remind you that in the first two months, when the Western world was just watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and from their help Ukraine had only javelins and stingers to wage guerrilla warfare in the supposed rapid occupation of the territory of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted such a major defeat on the invading Russian army that it the remnants were quickly withdrawn from central and northern Ukraine to avoid complete defeat.

After providing Ukraine with several units of Western modern military equipment, the Russian army was forced to leave part of the Kherson region along with its regional center, Kherson, and simply fled in panic from the Kharkov region, abandoning even serviceable armored vehicles. As a result, there was much more military equipment captured from the Russians than the entire West provided. Several Himars missile systems delivered to Ukraine turned the tide of the war. And this is the much-hyped “second army of the world”? What would happen if Russia started to fight with NATO, where there are hundreds of times more such complexes?

Ukraine is receiving military aid, but in very small quantities so far. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces fight not with numbers, not with the help of a “fiery shaft,” but with skill and ingenuity. Ukrainians were distinguished by this even during the Second World War. But on the other hand, if Ukraine was preparing for this war and had the current weapons for its defense, how would Russia justify itself? After all, if we compare the potential and resources of these two countries, then Russia is tens of times superior to Ukraine in all indicators. Where is such superiority seen on the battlefield? Or does Russia only know how to show its strength somewhere in Syria, Africa, where they fight almost with bows and arrows?

Besides, who is Ukraine at war with now, if Iran is providing military assistance to Russia, and North Korea recently supplied Russia with about a million shells for the war in Ukraine? This is despite the fact that the entire West has also pledged to supply Ukraine with a million shells, but deliveries are delayed because it is difficult for them to collect even that many of them.

I’m not ready to argue whether nuclear weapons should have been used against Japan at that moment or not, it’s really a very difficult question. I’ll even choose the answer - it wasn’t worth it...
At the same time, I will confirm that it is necessary to destroy the Nazi regime as a goal!

But then - you have some kind of selective memory... Like always :)

Let's talk about the victims of the USSR/Russia without nuclear weapons, but with the help of primitive, cruel, I would say sadistic methods of exterminating tens of millions of people around the world? Ksati ideology killed more than nuclear weapons! The ideology of communism (and its mutations) is responsible for about 100 million people killed around the world in the 20th and 21st centuries. The USSR destroyed more than 20 million, both its citizens and citizens of other countries, China destroyed more than 65 million, ....

But this doesn’t fit into the concept of propaganda that you adore, right? :)

Why aren’t you concerned about the use of depleted uranium shells against Ukraine since 2014? Would you like to talk about this topic? Or phosphorus shells against peaceful Ukrainian cities? I understand - it’s not interesting, and there’s nothing to answer, because... We will quickly reveal the lies, but as always you have no other “facts” :)



Some said, “Yes, we will capture Ukraine in 2-3 weeks.”  ;D

I don’t think that China will dare to do this, having already huge problems in the economy and social tension... Moreover, it is unlikely that Xi, having such plans, would go to pay his respects to the USA.
Once again - without the Western market, currency, technology and investment - China, if it does not slide to its previous level, will become something like the USSR during the Cold War - seemingly strong, but despised by everyone and without positive prospects, although yes - they will circle around “friends”, while China will feed them, but as soon as it cannot feed them, at best they will abandon him and forget...

You mean from now on (not so far). Because the total of more than $243 billion aid in shipments that reached Ukraine in less than 10 days is not considered small quantities. Although from now on since US decided to send all that aid to the terrorist organization murdering kids in Palestine, the shipments would reach Ukraine in 30-40 days.

It's funny that people are still repeating this old and already debunked propaganda :D
It is even funnier that they still think Iran's military assistance is some old Shahed136 drones. If you want to know how it looks like just check out Yemen that has gone from the poorest Arab country with only some AK47s to fight with, to the number 2 missile power in the world (after Iran) and has a military that is stronger and more modern than half of NATO members.

Wrong. The delay is because all the production is being sent to the apartheid Zionist regime occupying Palestine so that they can murder more women and children. So they can no longer send the same amount in the same timeframes to Ukraine as before.

I call that progress that you have at least accepted that your first post in this quote chain was complete nonsense and you had no way of defending that nonsense that you thought changing the topic entirely could work ;D

While the topic has shifted from economics to politics, I'll allow myself to return to the topic of this thread :)

I came across a more pancake history of gas prices, I recommend reading it. Natural gas futures:

Prices are now at 1997-2000, 2017-2021 levels. I.e. the market has returned to its average state.

https://i.postimg.cc/ZKYbcdby/2023-11-21-13-17-14-Investing-com.png (https://postimages.org/)

I think that's a pretty good argument, against the "energy crisis" :)

I wonder where you got the information that the total amount of US aid to Ukraine amounted to more than $243 billion, and it was delivered in the form of cargo in less than 10 days? The current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Medvedev, could only have come up with this after another binge. He makes similar statements from time to time.

I was able to find the following information on the Internet about the assistance provided to Ukraine in connection with the military attack on it by Russia:

The Washington Post wrote that since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States has allocated more than $66 billion in total aid to Ukraine. This is more than the US provides in aid to any other country. More than $43 billion was allocated to Kyiv as military aid, accounting for 65% of the total.
Washington provided $23.5 billion directly for weapons and equipment, $18 billion for other assistance (training, consulting, logistics and equipment), and $1.5 billion for grants and loans to other countries for the purchase of weapons and equipment. Another $20.5 billion was allocated to support Ukraine’s budget, and more than $2.6 billion was allocated to support displaced persons, refugees and other vulnerable populations in the country and abroad.
https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/08/7/702986/

American Defense Secretary Austin, during his current visit to Ukraine, said that the United States provided assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 42 billion, and the remaining 50 US allies allocated 36 billion. That is, total assistance to Ukraine amounted to $78 billion.
https://ukraina.ru/20231121/1051206971.html

Even the Russian Gazeta.RU, citing Pentagon information, reported that from February 24, 2022 to April 19, 2023, the volume of Washington’s military assistance to Kiev reached $35.4 billion. Moreover, since the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidency (2020), Ukraine has been allocated from the US budget of $36.1 billion in aid.
https://m.gazeta.ru/army/2023/04/19/16582849.shtml

But where is the fantastic 243 billion dollars for Ukraine, and in ten days?

The propaganda and mouthpieces you shared from Russia, Ukraine, US, etc. are all repeating the official statements not the actual total value. The official statements also only include the total value they needed to take out of their budgets.
But if you follow open source intelligence sources (easily found on the internet) there are a lot of solid proof of the actual amount that is being sent to Ukraine. Some of which is also mentioned in the news as some article that you'd normally skip and won't be counted in statistics.
For example what the American mouthpiece NYT says here (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html) is a tiny portion of a couple of billion dollars worth of weapons and ammunition (a lot more than just some shells) being sent to Ukraine which is not counted in any statistics they report as total.

As for the time frame, again just check the news. For example last year Pentagon stated that there are 8-10 flights a day (https://www.airandspaceforces.com/pentagon-8-to-10-flights-day-full-of-aid-for-ukraine-pouring-into-europe/) sending arms to Ukraine. These days sometimes that amount is barely any shipments in a week. Even the recent statements by EU politicians says that they can no longer provide aid to Ukraine in the promised timeframes and now it would take months before they can send certain things like shells for example. Like Germany that is promising delivery in 4-5 months from now!!!

Great title op! Sounded like something straight out of a Star Wars movie. Anyway, I don't really know a lot about global economies, but I can tell that the Russia-Ukraine war is the primary reason for the energy crisis 2.0 after reading some posts.

Both countries lost a lot from this war, but they gained a lot too clearly which makes me wonder if it will ever truly end later on.

Israel or palestine none of these countries is an oil producer in the world. How will their conflict affect the oil price if other arab countries do not join the war? This new war front in the middle east is geopolitical, and there are small chances that other arab countries will join the war directly to protect hamas or the people of Gaza. What you are trying to draw doesn't make sense because Hamas and Israel have been fighting for a long time. The death of hamas leader is not something new. This is an event that happens frequently. If you want to conclude who's fault it is, you will just start a long debt because the situation becomes fishy due to the propaganda war conducted by both iran and israel.

Generally speaking any tensions in a energy rich region affects the prices as we've already seen it in the market that it caused "volatility". Luckily the conflict was kept inside the occupied Palestine and it did not enter next phase to have the biggest impact on the price.

The next phase (that fortunately didn't happen) would have been the conflict region growing in size and specifically reaching the seas (Red Sea and the Persian Gulf) which would have shot the energy price to the moon.
Basically ever since the commandoes of armed forces of Yemen seized the Israeli ship that was sailing under the protection of US navy and US did not dare respond, it changed the face of the conflict. In fact it was the last straw that led to the cease fire planned to start tomorrow 10 AM.

It depends on what "Arab countries" you are talking about. If it is the occupied colonies like Saudi Arabia, nobody expected them to do anything other than what US orders. Otherwise Lebanon and Syria as the closest ones and Yemen as the farthest one have been directly involved.

And at the heart of it, this war is not geopolitical. It is crime against humanity since it is categorized as ethnic cleansing or a genocide.

To be clear this is not a war between Hamas and Israel, it is a genocide committed by the Zionist regime against the people of Palestine.

Yes you are right. What Israel is doing is committing war crimes and the West is also involved in it by supporting Israel directly. This genocide they are conducting is preplanned as many analysts said because they really know about a possible attack by hamas and they have done nothing so that they have an excuse to do ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip. Syria and lebanon are the closest to the conflict but i don't think they will join the cause directly instead they will do a proxy counter through hizbullah, huthi and other militant groups in that region.


Hamas is a excuse to show Israel's genocide as a novel cause.

These aren't militia or militant groups. These are part and parcel of these countries. For example Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government and also part of the armed forces of Lebanon. Just like how US has army, marine corps, navy, etc.
Same with Yemen, Ansarollah is part and parcel of Yemen and its government. It is not just Houthis by the way, Houthis are only a portion of the Ansarollah.

That's like saying Zbroini syly Ukrayiny is an excuse to show Russians invasion of Ukraine as a novel cause.
Armed forces are there to protect people and fight against invaders.

It is interesting to point out that all these 3 movements were formed after their respective countries were invaded by foreign forces and most of their soil were occupied since their "old armies" were useless against invaders. They were formed to defend their homes and take back their soil.

P.S. It is even more interesting to point out that Hamas is like the democratically elected government as they've won the election for the Palestinian Legislative Council by the majority vote and have the most number of seats in the PLC.

If we do not generally trust official sources from different countries, but rely on “intelligence” that was somehow leaked to social networks or the press, then we will go very far in our reasoning. If intelligence information appears in the media, it means that it was thrown there for some purpose and it does not always correspond to reality.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine note that the Russians at the front receive three times more armored vehicles and other weapons than the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive from all their partners. In addition, such military equipment often comes from old models due to the fact that the countries that supply Ukraine with this equipment take advantage of this opportunity to modernize their armed forces. But even such outdated technology, as a rule, is superior to Russian models.

That is the hardest thing, you may not trust the information given by the governments, and to be fair you wouldn't be wrong, they do lie a lot and that is understandable. However, what do you trust then? Yourself? Some youtube? Some guy on twitter? That means, you may not have the correct information at all, governments in every part of the world will lie, that is what governments do, but not like anyone else has the right correct data neither, which makes this situation even harder. Energy crisis could be solved in every nation, just create self sufficient ones, solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, and anything else you can find, these are all stuff that you can do to cover energy need of a nation without being depending any other nation, its as simple as that.

Sadly it can not.
Because for starters the renewable energies you named can not replace fossil fuels in a lot of products we are using. You see gas, oil and their products are used in a lot more than to produce electricity.
Additionally building the infrastructure to use renewable energies is difficult and in certain places impossible. Not to mention that in certain cases (eg. nuclear power and electric cars) majority of countries need to import both the technology and the fuel (nuclear fuel and lithium batteries) which means another form of "energy" crisis.

I think it would be a good idea to field a team of experts who understand renewable energy governance by evaluating the potential of renewable energy resources available in the region. If indeed the above is not helpful and is considered inadequate, then it can be concluded that other steps and efforts must be taken.

Regarding Petroleum Renewables and Energy Outlook.
The energy component of the oil market is conditionally fuel for solutions using internal combustion engines in one form or another.
The process of abandoning internal combustion engines is already gaining momentum. And this is reflected in the share of global oil production that goes to the production of such fuel.

At the same time, it is foolish to deny that if we are talking about hydrocarbons, the picture is not so rosy.
For example - cogeneration plants, thermal power plants, they operate on fossil carbonaceous fuels (coal, fuel oil, ....).
The second not very positive example is the chemical industry. Most of the world around us is made up of plastics, paints .varnishes, glues, .... And these are mostly oil/gas derivatives.
A third example is industrial facilities, like metallurgical plants, which mostly consume coking coal and other carbon mixtures.

If we go back to oil - about 55% (10 years ago it was about 65%) of oil is used for fuel production, for internal combustion engines (in one form or another), and there is a downward trend. The chemical industry consumes up to 25% of oil. The non-energy sector still consumes about 11% (bitumen, oils, etc.)

Therefore, it is likely that in the coming decades there will be a marked decrease in the share of oil for the production of fuel for internal combustion engines, but it is unlikely that the need of the chemical industry will decrease.

Renewable energy sources can and, most importantly, should replace current fossil energy sources. Without this, humanity will no longer survive, since the use of oil, coal and gas as energy sources and in internal combustion engines leads to drastic climate change and this process threatens to soon become uncontrollable.

At the same time, the technology of alternative energy sources continues to improve and become cheaper. Surely their use will soon become simple and cheap, and thus we will be able to solve most of our current energy problems.

The only part I don't agree with is the "soon" part. We definitely have to find a replacement for the finite amount of fossil fuels on earth but it is slow and expensive, not to mention with the way consumption is increasing, the clean replacements are not going to be enough in the near future.

All news feeds are abuzz with the news: "On December 1, the world's largest experimental fusion reactor was launched in Japan. At this point, scientists believe that despite the early stage of development of fusion energy technology, it could very well be a future source of unlimited energy for Earth's inhabitants.

According to ScienceAlert, fusion differs from nuclear fission, which is used in today's nuclear power plants, in that it involves fusing the nuclei of two atoms together rather than splitting the nucleus of a single atom. This process, known as thermonuclear fusion, occurs in the cores of all ordinary stars and ensures their existence. Unlike nuclear fission, fusion poses no risk of catastrophic nuclear power plant failures and generates far less radioactive waste."

Yes, experimental, but - working. It will be used to test technologies for commercial operation. Yes - industrial reactors will not appear tomorrow, but in the perspective of 10-15 years, it is already likely.  So we are highly likely to be in the era of low-cost and mass energy, which will replace most of the needs previously covered by fossil hydrocarbons

The changing world order reflects a deeper reality – the constant evolution of nations, their economies, political structures, and social fabrics. As technology leaps forward, economies boom and bust, and populations shift like desert sands, so too does the balance of power on the global stage. Witnessing the rise of new powerhouses, like China and India, challenging the established hegemony of the West, is not a sign of weakness, but a testament to the dynamism and adaptability of the international system.

I think that the change of world order is a positive process. Because, a multipolar world encourages innovation and creativity. When no single power holds dominance, diverse perspectives and solutions are brought to the forefront, leading to breakthroughs in fields such as technology, science, and governance. This cross-pollination of ideas fosters a more vibrant and dynamic global environment. And bitcoin does the same thing for the monetary system.

Yes, indeed, the use of thermonuclear fusion in the energy sector may become a turning point in assessing the safety of nuclear energy. Recently, many countries have begun to abandon nuclear power plants precisely because of problems with their safety during periods of increased seismological activity and other climatic anomalies, as well as an increase in the frequency of man-made disasters, including at nuclear power plants.

Along with improving technologies for using renewable energy sources, humanity can solve the problem of energy shortages and finally get rid of the use of fossil fuels, which pollute our planet and lead to drastic negative climate change.

Just trust the motive. It's a politic every nation has different view about what is going on.
Even Nato won't back down when their country need more gas, oil and soon

I think they know about that but there is some issue that we don't know especially economy cost to build renewable energy and everything need time to change.
I think we still has more than 30 years to survive energy crisis

Scientists around the world are working to develop "artificial suns" - devices that generate energy by heating hydrogen atoms to temperatures above 100 million degrees Celsius and holding them long enough for them to fuse to form heavier atoms. A similar process occurs inside our sun, combining hydrogen atoms and releasing energy, light and heat.

China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) said it has reached a major milestone in its quest to create an artificial sun powered by nuclear fusion, generating a plasma current of more than 1 million amps for the first time.

However, the challenge is to control this process so that the reactor does not explode when replicating the process on Earth. China is also cooperating with the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, the world's largest fusion reactor, which is being built in France jointly by the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States.

I remember that the predictions of the famous Bulgarian soothsayer Vanga said that we would be able to launch several of these “artificial suns” in low orbit and they would evenly illuminate our planet around the clock, since, like the sun, this reaction releases light and heat. These will be balls with a diameter of approximately six meters. But after some time, two of them will collide in the sky. However, all the same, this will be the greatest progress in the field of providing people with clean and inexhaustible energy.

"Transitional technologies" between today's energy production schemes can be considered alternative, renewable energy sources - solar, wind, thermal, tidal, .... Moreover, they may be acceptable for countries that simply do not have the funds to purchase a thermonuclear reactor or purchase imported electricity. And yes - the industrial operation of thermonuclear stations is not yet a year or even 5. But .. progress is being made, perhaps in the coming years, due to experimental installations, AI, new types of computing systems, we will get an acceleration in the implementation of industrial installations, and this will take not 30-50 years, but a shorter period

Until now, creating an artificial sun will not be the main solution for energy, which is running low. When an artificial sun is created, it will be like a nuclear bomb that can destroy humanity. Do you know the element called "Xenon"? Xenon can be found only on Mars in very large quantities, whereas in our world, Xenon will only be created when a nuclear explosion occurs. Imagine if this artificial sun would explode and destroy life on earth. Sometimes humans are too aggressive to not think about the very dangerous impacts that are very threatening human life on earth.

You don't really seem to understand what controlled fusion is..... Let me explain - this technology is not analogous to a controlled nuclear reaction when atoms split with the release of huge amounts of energy and radioactive by-products (nuclear power is almost the same as a nuclear explosion, but very slow). Thermonuclear fusion is a reverse process where atoms fuse together to form a new chemical element. At the same time, the element is not dangerous to the environment. I recommend you to study the subject, so as not to make such statements, extremely far from reality

No, that's not true. Artificial suns(fusion) are safer than nuclear reactors(fission). the problem is how to heat hydrogen atoms above 100 million degrees celsius over a long time.
There is no radioactive waste so it will be the cleanest energy source available to use.
You should read more about that

And in my opinion, your prediction above is very likely to happen because it is very likely that the stock of raw materials will be very reduced in the future and even if it continues to be used, this will be contrary to the spirit of fighting global warming and energy policies that encourage reducing dependence on energy. fossil fuels. The need for the chemical industry is still high and this need will also remain, especially in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture and manufacturing. Now it seems that the future will require very large and relatively clean resources without producing large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. What if in the end it was uranium that was chosen for use.

As practice shows, uranium cannot be called an ideal resource. From its limited deposits and the difficulty of processing, to the high risks of its use.
Thermonuclear fusion is a more promising option. Cheaper, safer, more effective. Among the disadvantages - at the moment there are no industrial solutions, there are only experimental installations. But in recent years, really good results have been achieved, and there is a high probability that within some time the world will be able to obtain a cheap, safe and virtually unlimited source of energy.

Oil refining products are the main components that pollute the environment and create a greenhouse effect, and this causes glaciers to melt, the overall temperature to rise and the climate on the planet to change very quickly. I see that many are still discussing the advisability of moving away from the traditional use of oil as fuel for internal combustion engines. When entire countries begin to go under water, the volume of land on the planet will decrease, and in some areas of the remaining land the temperature will rise to critical levels for human habitation. Perhaps only after that they will think about this global problem. But perhaps it will be too late. After all, we are not the first civilization on this planet. They say that it was technical progress that destroyed the previous ones.

I remember sci-fi movies that used what looked like an artificial sun which is the source of spacecraft power.
It's name "passanger", I don't know why they didn't choose nuclear power plants as their energy source.
whatever it is called thermonuclear fusion / hydrogen fusion / artificial sun basically the same, i think the potential is huge

Yes, it doesn’t matter what the technology is called, the main thing is that humanity can get cheap, accessible, safe energy in unlimited quantities. And yes, I’m sure there will be several options - cold nuclear fusion, hydrogen “reactors”, and renewable energy sources - sun, wind, tidal, ... The world must move away from fossils, limited resources, which have recently been used for market manipulation and political issues.

Why are we even discussing a very experimental solution that experts claim won't work at least for another 30 to 40 years? The world is moving towards that for sure but in such a long time a lot of things would change. Just look at the past 30 to 40 years! The world has changed significantly. I'd say it is perfectly possible to see another world order change in that period!

The answer is very simple - this technology, which 10-20 years ago seemed fantastic, and there was no technology on the horizon to realize it. Today, these are already WORKING experimental reactors. Taking into account the exponential growth of technologies, we can assume the appearance of industrial plants even earlier than the specified period. And in 30 years, an interesting time will come - a significant reduction in oil production due to the depletion of sources of these energy carriers. And those who are now developing this technology, who are investing in it, and developing alternative energy will be on the energy Olympus. For example, I would gladly invest in such companies today, and I recommend it to those who now have such an opportunity....

We are discussing blockchain technology, which has not yet replaced the fiat financial system, and the prospects of such a scenario are also somewhere "beyond the horizon" :)

That sounds like a very risky investment because best case scenario is that your investment would lie there idle and without any profit, there may even be losses because it takes years for them to come up with an actual working solution that can then be mass deployed at a large scale and then become profitable. The first states would take decades, that's decades without seeing any profit.

Not to mention that with worsening global situation when all resources are going to the weapons manufacturers as NATO members have depleted most of their storages, there is not much room left for R&D into fixing energy problems! That further extends the end date of such technological breakthroughs.

That's an irrelevant example because the problems the blockchain technology is fixing aren't going anywhere but the energy crisis we are discussing in this topic will end LONG before we see a working solution for a reliable alternative energy source.

I'd say all the energy crisis cases I've discussed so far in different topics will end by the end of 2024 if what they say about US getting ready for a "strategic defeat" is correct.

1. By itself, it is an investment for the future. But. Let me give you a simple example - Jeff Bezos. In the 90s of the last century, he, for example, persuaded his relatives to invest in his BOOK SHOP, if I'm not mistaken, about 10,000 dollars. Now their share is about $1 billion and the "conversion" has been 20+ years.

In addition, fusion is the most promising technology today in terms of obtaining unlimited, cheap, safe energy. And yes, it won't be tomorrow.

Regarding NATO and other things - this is nonsense, sorry :) If backward savages have a million cobblestones, it doesn't mean that the developed west will lose to them because they don't have 2 million cobblestones :)) Just compare the power of the developed world's economy and the pariah countries that are trying to destabilize the world ? ! Yes, I realize that it is cheaper and easier to shit on the world than to create something, to build a legal state, to adhere to laws.  But this does not mean that the developed world will give up and allow terrorists and scum of the world to destroy civilization! :)

2. About blockchain - very much on topic !  Now the real use of this technology of a fraction of a percent in the world economy. although blockchain technology is very many years old - the practical realization was in 2008, and before that many years it was developed. Total - about 20 years. And so far, apart from speculative profit, blockchain does not generate any other profit ! Cold fusion technology - also has a key role in the future world, where fossil resources that provide energy are running out and their extraction is becoming more and more expensive. Moreover, this resource is becoming an element for manipulation, blackmail, and economic terrorism. And the launch of thermonuclear industrial power generation will also bankrupt countries that try to terrorize the world at the cost of energy resources. 

You can call the terrorist organization know as Israel "civilized" all you like and the dismantlement of the organization as "terrorism", but it won't change a thing. In 10 years from now, nobody would even remember these terrorists and their radical ideology known as Zionism will have to go back into hiding like the past 2000+ years since the world has seen its true face and has been waking up.
Besides, you as a Zionist should know this better than anybody else since it is prophesized in your תָּנָ״ךְ‎ specifically which is commonly known as the 8th decade curse. ;)

Blockchain technology has not been about "profit making" ever. It has always been to address the centralized problem that exists in the monetary system. Maybe read the Bitcoin whitepaper some time to understand what Bitcoin was invented for!
As I said it is off-topic here because Bitcoin and blockchain technology is addressing an existing problem and are already providing a solution for it.

Meanwhile, in the real world, savages with cobblestones attacked Ukraine with some missiles. The glorious AFU, the only army in the world with 0 losses after 2 years of war, equipped with the most advanced air defence systems like Patriot, NASAMS (is being used to protect the White House), IRIS-T etc. were only able to intercept 18 missiles out of 59!

Source: https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/  

Yes, you're right, there's a fair chance the US will go bankrupt at some point. But then again, why do you think the countries adopting new tech won't be the same countries, which are exporting fossil fuels now? Reminds me of EV market where Tesla were the pioneers but eventually the market will be divided between the big guys like Mercedes, Porsche, the Japs, the French etc. So, everyone who was good at building conventional cars will eventually be good at EV and nobody will remember what Tesla was in 10-20 years. We can also compare it to the mobile phone industry, where Nokia or Blackberry were big, but where are they now?  

Another sign of energy crisis erupted this time in Germany as the farmers have been protesting over the past couple of weeks ever since the German government that has long run out of money has been putting more pressure on civilians to cover its rapidly increasing budget deficit.
This time the anger is about cutting the subsidy cuts for fuel usage and tax breaks that is targeting farmers.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/01/10/soRP2.jpeg
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-farmers-block-roads-highway-ramps-protest-subsidy-cuts-2024-01-08/

On another news, the GDL train drivers' union also went on strike from this morning nearly halting the entire German railway which they say will last for at least 3 days.
https://www.euronews.com/travel/2024/01/08/germany-rail-strikes-train-travel-disruption-to-continue-into-2024

The important question is: what's the point of $4.4 trillion GDP?...

The constant collapse of energy in countries have determined their economic productivity. All the powerful countries depends on power supplies for their productive economy.

Over the years energy crisis have become part of the international political economics of states. The producers of petrol and diesel power generators have seen that, the moment power supplies increases, especially in African states, sales will definitely fall .

What they do to keep sponsoring the energy crisis in Africa is by collaborating with those in the energy sector investors to keep the collapse of energy supplies and become suppliers of generators.

The solution to all this is effective governance and it is for government take the private hands out of the energy sector and manage it by the government.

Africa is a bit different since the energy of most of the region is being pillaged so there is not much left for Africans to use themselves. Not to mention that a lot of other factors is preventing Africa (that still struggles with colonizers) from developing and improving.

That would be a start although it comes at a cost. When governments take control of the energy sector they'll have to keep the price at a somewhat fixed level to prevent crisis. That means more of their budget is going to be spent during times when prices are high (like these days) therefore they may face bigger budget deficits that would hurt the economy in a different way.

Humanity, if desired, is able to overcome any energy crisis and there are many ways to produce cheap and environmentally friendly energy.

In Ukraine, for example, an ordinary schoolboy proposed a project called “Generating electricity from the atmosphere.” The inventor proposes to extract electricity from the air, or more precisely from the atmosphere using an artificial ionized cloud due to the strong electric field that will be emitted by the ionizing tower. Samuel's invention involves the extraction of not only electricity, but also water. The estimated cost of one kilowatt of energy in this case will cost approximately one cent.
At the Olympics of Geniuses, held in Oswego (New York, USA), he won bronze among two thousand young inventors from all over the world.
And how many more similar inventions can be proposed in our time of rapid development of science and technology.

Source:
https://building-tech.org/%D0%AD%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%8F/ukraynskyy-shkolnyk-sozdal-ustanovku-dlya-poluchenyya -elektroenergyy-yz-atmosferi---1-kylovatt-za-3-kopeyky

It's still all talk anyway, CIA just got more sneakier and I do believe that they're not that weakened as much as any other people always say, I mean US can still do a full military deployment anywhere in the world within 24 hour period and the USD is still the most used global currency for trading and at the same time it's also still being coveted by rogue countries which only means that whatever their influence is, I think that it's still there. Also, it's worth mentioning that the talk with China and Venezuela is still a talk right? During this time before my reply, there's nothing that has happened yet right? With how bad China's real estate market is right now, I don't think that they'll be able to keep a really strong foreign relations as long as the US.

Theoretical ways of producing energy have always existed from the time man found fire and will continue to exist long after fossil fuels run out. Similar to the previous case, if it is not actually producing large scale energy it is not a solution worth bringing up in an "energy crisis" topic!

It takes roughly 6 months to do a full deployment for any war anywhere in the world for United States military. We're talking about deploying 1-2 million servicemembers and as many equipment, since that's how many it takes for any of the ongoing conflicts or tensions that could turn into one.

How is everyone in the topic of the New World Era? Hahaha.

I'm wrong in my topic that there will be a period of Deflation during 2023, and I believe that would have a higher probability of happening than a New World Era within ten years. 8)

But it's always better to be ready, and HODL/own hard assets like Gold, Land, and Bitcoin. I believe which should be the actual point of these topics, not as trying to be a predictor of major changes in the world.

i wouldnt suggest buying gold right now

looking at golds all-history market. (ATH $2.075 ) today gold is($2025) in the top 97% of ATH
(remember buy low sell high, not the opposite)

when you see big gold countries selling or giving gold away to citizens. the elites are on a selling spree. they dont want to keep gold
when normal people are being told to buy gold its because those already with gold want to sell

its also worth noting normal people never get to trade gold at true spot price. many only have access to gold via shady "cash for gold" kiosks where the spread of spot vs retail price is huge and not helpful for those normal people wanting to buy/sell gold. they always get the worse deals

another hint
fuel costs have come back down to 2021 levels (unlike the june 2022 ATH of gasoline). so its becoming cheaper to mine gold again. this will play out next gold mining season when miners are throwing tonnes of gold onto the market that they mined cheaper than the previous couple years

The old World Order is already dead, there is no other choice to have a New World Order. The only thing left for discussion is how that order is going to be and which countries have how much of the "cake of power".

As for your prediction, there are a lot of "ifs" over the past 2 years. For example I've been predicting that "if interest rates come down, bitcoin price shoots up". That "if" never happened so we only had small rises.
It's the same with your Deflation Period prediction. A lot of things didn't happen that were needed to lead to that. We have had signals for both worsening and improving economic situation at the same time in the past year at least!!! So it's no longer about being right or wrong, it is about knowing all these signals and seeing which one gets stronger to be able to predict the most probable outcome.

For example take the recent Putin interview with an American mouthpiece. Many are taking it as a way to prepare the American population for the end of the NATO-Russian war. US regime desperately needs it too since they need to focus on China not have their weapons storages depleted. Specially since neither sanctions worked on Russia (IMF predicts higher GDP growth for Russia next year compared to Eurozone which is closer to zero!) nor their weapons were capable of slowing down Russian advances.
At the same time we have others like UK and some in US regime that are pushing for more war with Russia (ie. pushing Eastern Europe to fight with Russia while they stay far).

Well the two are linked. The major changes in the world are what's affecting these markets. "Speculating" about one helps you speculate about others.

I pointed these things out in the past like this discussion from 2022 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5418480.0) and in a lot of my comments and other topics like this one (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5432581.0) where I post my thoughts on these major changes and their effects on the economy. You can see around the times of the first topic gold price was around $1600 ish and it kept rising as things I explained happened (eg. countries and central banks continued buying a lot of gold).
That's a 25% profit in a little more than a year in a solid market for those who used this analysis.

Today we are at a high and the rise has slowed down, so it is not the best time to start buying but also the signs I've discussed in the past haven't vanished. Countries are still amassing gold silently and the world is inching towards more conflict which would make demand for gold rise.
This means I wouldn't recommend buying more gold  right now but also I wouldn't start selling either.

---

P.S. I believe this is the first time I'm brining this up in here, but about the main topic I have to mention the strait of Gibraltar. Just saying... things could get intense over there... that would choke Europe's economy...
...129 days of Genocide...

Are big Gold countries actually selling right now? It was merely two years ago that some Central Banks have been said to be hoarding Gold. Russia has also been said to be hoarding Gold since the Russo-Ukrainian War started.

Plus why would anyone give Gold away to the people when it's currently such a valuable commodity? ESPECIALLY NOW with these prices.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Get the context. It's not about investment nor "trading". It's about owning a hard asset that could be used as a form of money, like Bitcoin, as a fall-back/back-up in case there's a monetary crisis.

https://torontogold.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/gold-to-go-dubai-galeries-lafayette_01.jpg

when golds easy to access at the citizen level.. it means the institutional level is not in a hoarding season
when its available via vending machines instead of jewellers/collectors. they are literally trying to throw it at people like snacks

https://www.walmart.com/browse/jewelry/gold-bars/3891_4718514_3708899_8655615
(able to buy gold in walmart of all places, speaks for itself as to how open the market is)

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/06/16/Korea-gold-bars-vending-machines-convenience-stores/4781686942588/
(south korean convenience stores)


(this might help you understand more about another topics real progress)
imagine china has some real estate that needs buying up due to it being unfinished, so that money can complete it.. but doesnt want to down rate the property prices as it would affect the whole real estate market of other properties prices of houses that are complete.. so they keep the prices at finished prices but give the buyers some gold on completion

A more open market for small buyers of Gold is not an indicator that institutions are not hoarding. It's the price. That's truly the best indicator if an asset is in high demand or not, no? Where is Gold's price now?

Plus a simple search would tell you that China, Russia, and some of the world's Central Banks are actually hoarding Gold.


I give people the benefit of the doubt, but from your history in the forum, I will only believe you if you can give me the links to information.

no the point is that you read something.. and then separately do your own research.. that way you dont need to be spoonfed like a child
EG try google "china gold real estate" and find many links from many sources instead of asking people on the forum to spoon fed you

my history (trust rating) you keep refering to is your religious zeolets of core dev god worship, plead to core devs as gods and moderators to defend them because im calling them out on their (thus your via echo) BS.. and the social circle completes. for you to then pretend the trust rating is independent proof of anything, is a laugh..because its all linked to your tribes cries,, so proves nothing but that your clan cry when defeated

its time you start to do some independent research and stop being spoonfed by a cult or anyone
it only takes a few seconds to break from your cycle of adoration of the religion that recruited you. think for yourself and try to learn new things that dont sound like an echo of an idiot. that also includes when you blindly suck up to stompix(guestimate guy) too..

anyways
fuel costs(energy crisis) is relaxing meaning costs of goods are relaxing meaning even gold mining will get cheaper. so with it already being on a high, not a great time to buy.. and yes you could have learned this before i told you, should you ever bothered to research energy details when making this topic..
yep independent research about energy would have taught you gold is about to correct so also doing independant research on reasons for "buy low sell high" would have added more weight to research, and then looking at the market gateways of obtaining gold would have added more weight to which you could have informed your own opinion that gold is at its peak not its bottom

 ::)

Do you actually believe that I post here and say some things WITHOUT doing my own research? Please ser, you've been taking advantage of the newbies with all your gaslighting. That's definitely why Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow, both very trusted developers in the Bitcoin community, have given you two negative trust-ratings.

Central Banks are hoarding, especially Central Banks of Russia and China, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/chinas-gold-market-2023-demand-improved-and-premiums-rose

they gave negative trust rating because your clown army you support(doomad hosted) cried to them with victim tears.

as for your research.
you dont read code or blockdata or find real statistics or data.  your research is asking someone their opinion on things and then you copy their opinion.
you are defined as a spoonfed consumer sucking up anything handed to you. not a researcher.

from looking at your opinions they all sound like copy and pastes from social/mainstream media.
when you dont sound like doomad, stompix, you sound like fox news

even your insults are a copy and paste

as for your incessant overuse of the word gaslight.. you need to see who's fueling your flames and causing you to get burnt. the vapour that comes to you is piped in from idiots. if your getting burned by it.. change your fuel source..
because you have become as useful as a gas flaring chimney. not utility gas

..
the main debates i had with gregmaxwell was about how segwit allows junk data to get into blockchain unvalidated due to backward compatibilities lack of need for network readiness/activation of understanding, having rules new formats of transactions... and ordinals proves the exploit

even your mentor doomad now knows i was right, but still hates that i even dare challenge/scrutinise the beloved gods you idolise and trust

---

as for chinas gold buy.. such wow. they increased their hoard by 'meh' 10%... and are now offering out gold to help incentivise the unfinished real estate projects to be bought up at market rate by offering buyers a gold brick..
.. instead of discounting the real estate, which would ripple market price decline for other finished housing

EG if a gold brick is $75k and average apartment price is $300k
instead of offering unfinished real estate at $225k to spark buy-ups. they still offer real estate at $300k but give the buyer a $75k gold brick
thus the real estate market stays on paper at the $300k rate and not decline by 25%
get it yet

its the same trick employers do(but opposite to keep salaries low). instead of pay rises which spark inflation, they offer employee's other benefits like pre-tax pensions and healthcare schemes. so that they can keep the salary market competitive(low)

..
as for energy.. fuel costs are coming down to normal levels. which mean production, mining, and construction becomes reasonable again. because facts show the main costs of construction, production, mining is the energy cost. not labour

labour cost is more of a concern in the consumer market of retail

Your point is good BUT Walmart is not a good example, they are not selling gold on their site, but rather 3rd party vendors, and gold vending machines are more for bragging rights.


Don't know where in the world you are located, but in most parts energy prices are at some of their lowest point in years. Not getting there, not coming down, but there.

---

A lot of what you are seeing now in terms of energy prices are in locations where more infrastructure is being built, which is expensive, which will cause the price to the consumer to rise. Or where infrastructure has been neglected for decades and has to be repaired / replaced which is also expensive and will cause the price to the consumer to rise.

---

The other side is believe it or not there are more and more people who care less and less about the pricing so it's causing weird things to happen to the retail price of fuel / energy.

I drive an EV that has free charging included (OK, I know it's not free it was buried in the price of the car by the manufacturer) but to me at this point I just plug in and charge.
My neighbor has a PHEV, and has solar. So for him filling the battery is free (or close enough that it does not matter) and it uses so little gas that he just fills wherever. $2.00 a gallon or $4.00 a gallon. When you are burning 50 gallons a year at most, it's not worth the time to care about that.

Offices are now using LEDs, and more efficient heat & cooling.

And so on.

Even when I had the Accord that got 40+MPG I cared about gas pricing. Before I went to full LED in the condo I was more careful to turn lights off.
Now if I have every bulb on at once it's still less then 60W

So prices are dropping, and on an individual level most people are using less energy.

On the large scale more energy & fuel is being used, but there are now 8 billion people here in 2010 there were 7 billion. So that's going to be a larger part of it.

-Dave

its more about when the gold hoarders are selling to the working-lower class consumers of walmart demograph, and not doing private trade at the rolex/lambo crowd. you soon spot how much they want to get rid of gold

again gold is at its near ATH of ALL history.. so not a buying time, especially when the causes of the ATH have passed.. expect a correction



im in the UK but i also see the views of other places

here in the UK fuel costs went upto £2/litre petrol and now back to £1.36/litre petrol
US went upto $6/gal now back in the $3.20/gal range

Energy crisis "relaxes" when two things happen, first is when energy prices come down (eg. oil goes back down to at least $40 which is half its current price) and second is when energy sources become stable and the routes become safe again. Neither of these has happened for the energy crisis to relax. Now about:
Last time petrol was £1.4 ish was in 2020 when the COVID had shut down the economy and oil price was about $20-$30 per barrel. That's the only way true value of petrol can reach £1.4.
Today oil price is still $80 ish per barrel and despite deindustrialization, the UK economy hasn't shut down like COVID time.

That means the only way price can be £1.4 ish today is if the government is artificially keeping it down by injecting lots of money into it. That money is taken out of every citizens pocket which means it has worse economic consequences down the line even if things seem good in short term.

So as I said, things regarding "Energy Crisis" have gotten slightly better (that is for example oil is no longer $100-$120 per barrel) but we are far from things actually relaxing and something like petrol really reaching £1.4 per liter.

first of all the oil cost crash of 2020 was the fluke due to futures trades that couldnt facilitate delivery. so people were literally paying refineries to take the contracts..
dont confuse short events of critical events..  with norm expectations

as for you thinking oil should go down to $40 as "norm" pfft.. yet the average of last 20 years is higher then $40.. average is more like $60($50-$70).. and oil has been seen to be $70 in february.. and not been near the $110 peak for a while(May 2022)

the petrol prices in the UK lingered around the £1.20-£1.40 from 2011.. so the expectant back to reality compared to the highs of £2 peak is getting back to the below £1.40 range .. i drove passed 4 petrol stations today. all priced £1.369, which is about the same price average i seen 2011-2019

---

if you think oil and UK petrol should go down to pre 2008 levels (under $40 and under £1 respectively) as norms.. sorry but no, just no.
,,
side note. since 2004(20 years) the only times oil went as low as $40. was 5 months(nov2015-march2016) and then the futures oil deal crisis of 2020
$40 is not the expected norm. its the temp crash periods

---

separate debate:
the reason fossil fuel costs have come down but the electrification of fossil power plants and renewables are still high. is because governments are charging carbon credits to fossil energy companies which sell on and average out over the grid to make even regions highly involved in renewable higher price because the grid spreads the carbon costs to an average per resident even if its green energy.

I didn't say it is norm, I said for the energy related issues to "relax" it needs to go that low.

I actually think it should go up in price to be "norm" since the value is higher. I'm just putting two and two together:
1) I've already mentioned oil price being high per barrel ($80).
2) There are increased additional costs for anything that reaches Europe from the sea (since US decided to turn the sea into a battlefield in support of genocide in Palestine)
2.1) The travel costs went up since certain vessels have to change course and instead of passing Red Sea they have to go around the entire African continent. This adds 30-40 days travel time which means higher cost
2.2) The insurance cost went up too since the risks are higher.

That's the situation in the past ~4 months. Early on some reports talked of a 2x rise. That has only gone up with more tensions.

2.3) Specific to UK, all these costs are higher because UK decided to join US and London in support of genocide, declared war on Yemen that supports Palestine. That effectively turned all British vessels into legitimate targets which has not only increased all those costs but also increased shortage (nobody wants to work for UK and British or British linked ships are attacked/damaged).
Not a week goes by without 3-5 UK or US ships being attacked like HMS Diamond (royal navy destroyer that was incapacitated) or Marlin Luanda (the British tanker that burned for 2 days).
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/02/14/v0Kc5.jpeg (https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/02/14/v0Kc5.jpeg)

By all logic, an oil product like petrol has to go up in price not down. That's unless it is being kept down.

Everything is beautiful, but the figures about the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia and China, while officially classified by them, do not look very convincing. Most of the other financial and economic indicators in these countries are also classified and cannot be used for indirect assessment. The only thing left is to listen to what the party says, and believe the party ! :)
This is putting it mildly.
At the same time, there is information that, for example, Russia, in connection with sanctions, sells off gold to pay for sub-sanctioned goods and dual-use goods prohibited to be sent to Russia. So their indicator of gold reserves in gold and statements "we have more gold than anyone else and we buy it all the time" are not very convincing ...

heck you dont even know your own numbers
just a few posts ago you said about the real high of barrel $100-$120.. now you say high of $80 (chose a number and stick with it)
..
you also say for things to relax barrel needs to come down to $40. when that was the temporary crisis LOW of 2016 not the norm average
the norm average is more like $60($50-$70) where oil did actually see $70 this month so is actually getting back to its norm

40 is not norm.. so not a relax point.. 60-70 would be relax point

Banks have been net buyers for a long time now, a couple decades the central banks have been buying and some have no selling at all.   Russia for example sells its dollars as a depreciating asset that makes some sense where as it believes the gold reserves its holding will only go up with all other factors serving that value.  China has gone from zero gold to holding an amount they dont want to release exactly, they control the market in effect as the largest buyer luckily they have managed to make themselves the largest producer also as well encouraging the population to hold gold.  India has already valued gold no change there, the government is negative on gold as it distracts from their inflationary fiat policy to tax their population however since India has large population growth and a young demographic even with no bullish trend in effect the country is accumulating gold within its borders.
  Obviously in the west the common worker is taxed heavily and will readily sell gold placing little value on it, I dont dispute that and I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like the cheapest gold to mine is on the highstreet.  Ie. the premium gained via pawn shops allows an easy profit on the arbitrage but even that billionaire doesnt recognize value in gold as an asset to hold so I'd attribute most value accumulating abroad in parts of Asia.
   China and India dont have oil so they will need the gold and the market should stay liquid in future for a hundred years I guess but I think both those markets are healthy for a very long time.  If we compare oil to coal, then the peak there was the steam age about 1900 or so and yet over a hundred years later coal is important still; thats how far oil has to go.

I'll give you a little bit of my opinion.
Regarding Russia - Russia has not given up on the dollar, moreover, it is critically dependent on it. There was a "show for show" when they "dedollarized" their reserves - buying many billions of dollars for yuan. After 3 months the yuan fell even more, and Russia lost several tens of billions of dollars on this "mega deal".

Regarding gold. It is a specific commodity, especially in a situation when the real reserves in the gold-currency reserves of countries are NOT KNOWN.
Plus - try to model the situation when, for example, China, due to economic problems, decides to sell gold. It will not be 1 kg, and not even 1 ton. imagine what will happen on the world gold market ? Especially since there is a VERY large amount of gold being mined ! It is a rather specific accumulation.

You need to expand your view and also check out the charts.
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/02/16/YdY6D.jpeg

The peak of the energy crisis was 5-6 months as seen above, part of it was the price surpassing $100 and going as high as $120. The crisis wasn't just about higher price, it was also shortage in the market (there was a lot more demand than there was supply).

The crisis continues at a less severe state at lower prices such as the current $80.

I disagree and still say price has to come down a lot more than even $70 to "relax" the market and become norm. Because what you are forgetting is that one of the reasons why energy price came down in first place was decreasing demand, the demand that went down due to deindustrialization and recession.
To be able to revive those dead sectors and help them come back to the tightly competing market, the price has to go down a lot lower (although a lot more is needed on top of lower energy price).

pooya using your own chart.. (where you prefer $40 as norm..) yet it only achieved 40 range in 5-6 months of the last 5 years and (for emphasis) only due to the covid effect of affecting shipments which caused the futures market to sell off at a loss.. where futures contracts needed to be sold at losses to find a place that will accept the oil

pooya using your own chart.. look at the average when it wasnt the 6 month crash.. when it wasnt premium 6 months
its 60-80
over 20 years it was 50-70

current price is 70-80 in february meaning its in the norm range
we are no longer in the 1980's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 40 years ago(30-50 range for NORM)
we are no longer in the 2000's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 20 years ago(50-70 range for NORM)

40's is not an expected norm, we ate long passed the 1980's,
sorry time and inflation have moved on from 1980's norms
its like you are suggesting bitcoin should be $6 because $6 was 2012's norm/average...
.. sorry we have moved on from that market cycle. dont expect $6 again. we are a few market cycles away from those kind of price norms.. sorry
..
as for energy shortages..
macro:
well even in the 1980's they knew oil is not renewable. they even calculated potential reserves and put a supply depletion deadline of 2050 when all reserves are gone if staying at the demand growth rate predictions of 1980's forward, if nothing was done about it. this was the true trigger of then needing to shift to renewables by 2050.(climate was just the excuse to get funding via sympathy/ health fear(energy companies dont want to lose their profits. so prefer others pay the costs of changing the product/business model to keep their business in operation for the next generation) and why would people want to fund the early stoppage of using oil.. make it a health and safety concern)

micro:
dont treat the temporary events of supply issues (low demand or high supply or the opposite) or old prices as reasons for lower expectations of now.. what to expect now: nows price is  the norm for the next decade.. you know.. inflation compared to 20-40 years ago's price
dont expect things to go back to prices of the 1980's norms (30-50)

That's exactly like with Bitcoin - many were mocking and ridiculing Bitcoin investors for not selling during the top. But who cares what the price is as long as you don't sell you don't lose. The same here: if they don't want to keep their reserves in yuan why would they care about this price decrease and why would they care about the currency they no longer keep their reserves in?

No ser, Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow gave YOU negative trust-ratings because YOU have been spreading lies, disinformation, FUD, and have been gaslighting people.



If you know the truth and you are right, then why the negative trust-ratings given to you by two of the most trustworthy people in the forum?



Copy and paste? Frankandbeans, your big blocker Anti-Core-Developers posts are copy-pasted from Mike Hearn's and Roger Ver's propaganda.


Ser, do your own research. They're hoarding, not selling.

when your cult of idiots treating core devs as immortal gods cried to your gods to put neg trust.. that then becomes a meaningless reference to then ask why the negative trust.. because you know your cult leader requested it
your just circling the same victim card you created for yourself.
the whole debates i had in that era were about how segwit opens up an exploit that can allow junk.. and funnily enough ordinals proved my point
my evidence is based on code and block data and backed up by researchable data and examples of exploits actually being used. your rebuttals are based on emotion and tears


crying about crying gets you no where and proves nothing. apart from you are wanting to play victim
by you not doing research, thus getting confused then crying that it must be me confusing you becasue i dont say the same songs as your cult. then crying about it.. says more about you than anyone
if you want to learn. do your research. if you dont want to learn. stay ignorant jsut stop crying about the position you put yourself into as a self admitted 'pleb'(the insult YOU gave yourself) that feels like a victim.. you made yourself a victim, and you are unwilling to accept what you done to yourself. or more so not done to improve your circumstance

you keep bringing  up "negative trust, why" and "franknbean"
you cant even come up with anything new, you just cycle the same tripe your mentor spewed at you
saying franky is wrong because he made my sugar daddy cry, is not proof of any debunking of what i say

you cant even articulate a way of saying it differently, independently of your cult leaders script

---

anyway china is offering out gold.. just not back to america.. yes it took in gold and is now offering it out. that how trade works.. the only difference is they are just not offering it back to the west

asia and the middle east are trading gold and shuffling it around
they are even offering it to the real estate buyers as a way to keep the 'paper' price of real estate property at market rate while the buyer gets an instant "cash-back" in the form of upto 1kg bars of gold(yep its the sneaky way to protect real estate market while back-hander deals to offer discount after contract signed at market rate.. kinda smart actually, very economics savvy)

as for energy
now diesel prices are coming back to this past decades norms of the $3 range as oppose to the $6 high
gold miners can mine again cheaper than last couple years. so expect golds ATH range now to correct again DOWN when gold mining season begins in spring

other goods and products will see CPI relax too due to lower fuel costs compare to previous few years

as for electrification of energy. well power plants still need to convert to renewables over next 20 years so expect longer term prices to not return to old prices.

 ::)

Plus just because there are entities in China, or in whatever country, that are making it easier for ordinary people to gain more access to Gold, phyisical or paper, it doesn't necessarily mean they're selling their Gold hoard. It's laughable to have those foolish assumptions, or foolish posts, merely to gaslight people into questioning the right information and make the gaslighter look smart.

Be careful in the real world, frankandbeans. Gaslighting might be becoming second nature to you.

whilst this is a energy topic YOU seem to want to just keep it derailed into a gold topic and a copied insult flurry of nonsense..
so lets handle you one more time..

you might want to look at the form of payment the chinese government planned and are giving out for the funding of the real estate completions, to re-energise the real estate market and not make it decline, you know, in the topic where you pointed out in-complete developed properties from private developers where you tried to use it as evidence of chinese gov's economy being bad
or is research too good for you, you prefer staying ignorant huffing gas fearing someone wanting to enlighten you

funny part is
private developers rushed too soon to develop properties before next decades baby boom demand. so PRIVATE developers failed..
during that time china was ignoring the issue(not their problem it was hong kongs problem at most) and mainland china happily just went on investing in gold

you tried to twist it as a sign of mainland chinese gov failure. and then doubled down saying chinese government going into crisis  having to money print their way out of the real estate issues..

reality is no, gov made their profit on gold and now ready to sell remove their gold exposure. before the post-ATH correction back down to value, so willing to give anyone that buys a unfinished property at market rate(so owners can fund the new developers that will finish them, without crashing the market rate) and china will give the owner a kg of gold as a back hander thanks, to avoid a money print and avoid a real estate market crash by not having to sell plots below market rate

try to do research and stay away from the gas fumes. you will only get burned when you decide the gas fumes are the only thing you want to touch your mind when someone tries to then enlighten your mind

anyway..
if you want to buy gold at ATH. and hoard it until the correction and sell at a loss due to lower fuel cost mining making it cheaper to have a lower average gold price again AKA buy high sell low aka sell at loss.. well you carry on with your own bad economic plan, just dont cry later about it and dont play victim

the energy crisis of crash of 2020 and inflation of 2021 is old news now.. we are getting back to norms..

..i do laugh how you live upside down to reality.. but cry how everyone else is wrong.. but ill leave you to your mistakes as you are the one that will victimise yourself with your mistakes

ill check back on you in a couple years and ask you how your $2k/oz gold purchases are doing.. and then ill laugh once more
(if you cant even get the economic hints from the oil/fuel costs relaxing(this topic) aiding gold mining thus impacting gold price..  and china now wanting to reduce its gold exposure after the 2 year buy up that got it to do its ATH (of the other economics topic).. to aid you in informing you its a bad time to buy gold at ATH before the correction.. thats all on you now)

 ::)

Frankandbeans, listen to me. Nothing in what you have posted changes the FACT that China's Gold reserves has been increasing because of the FACT that they're HOARDING the commodity.

PLUS, you may say that it's off-topic for the thread, BUT a New World Order under the leadership of China would never be possible if they didn't have a very large Gold reserve because the path that they're taking might be that might involve a war with the United States. It's a fall-back plan.

Some stats are coming about regarding this situation I mentioned here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/25/more-than-half-of-uk-retailers-affected-by-houthi-disruption-survey-shows
"The price of shipping a container from Asia to Europe has gone up by as much as 300% for some businesses, while logistical delays have added up to three to four weeks to delivery times, according to the survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)."

Although this is mainly about retailers and exporters but this also affects energy shipments the same way.
Also considering the fact that this war entered the third phase (first phase was verbal warning and blockade, second phase was attacks using weapons to damage vessels, third phase is using weapons to sink them) things could get worse for supporters of genocide.

I don't think China has a plan to create war with the US. In terms of economics, their supply routes are not interrupted by the wars and they are not going into the path of recession. Although there may have been setbacks like the real estate crash, their economy still is stronger with the help of BRI. They are not going to ruin this momentum with a war with the US.

 The only thing that could get China into war with the US is if they insist on taking over Taiwan by force but they could just wait til something happens since NATO seems to be using brute force in Ukraine or something happens on US soil itself since this election is crucial to what could happen next.

And true, I don't think they will sell Gold. It's their property to ensure the BRICS nations can back up their currency.

so you admit china had the money 2020-2023 to buy gold.. ok thanks for debunking yourself on another side topic.
they bought in 2021-22 (average $1.6k) and now have hoard at $2k average..
looks healthy investment to me
especially if in 2024 they can hand out gold bricks as 'cashback' back-handers to support the real estate market, where a $75k gold brick only cost them $60k.. plus those deals get people buying real estate to then accumulate another $175k from real estate project sales, where they got property for free due to grabbing up evergrande property


funny thing is.. US faked their #1 ranking on their own listings..
i hope(but never expect from you) to research the whole debt defined as GDP math.
and you will see why US is happy to raise the debt ceiling to retain its foundations as #1.. problem is the US debt in REALITY is hurting the US

when people stop watching things in $USD and start watching world economics in lots of domestic prices.. the USD will start to show its points of rust where it pretended to be gold/stainless steal

the US wants to be a net exporter(previous strangle holds via trade commission terms), to draw value into the US via giving away US goods at luxury prices.. but when other countries start to say no.. US domino's start to tumble

i know you are itching to reply 'but us sales of Iphone in asia are up' no they are not, shipments are up. but asia are not buying. instead they are filtering them on to other US sanctioned countries so that its asia that get the sales from destination countries, the US does not sell directly to.
also the iphone shipments are small in comparison to other phones combined, (and actual sales in asia.. )

I believe they wouldn't have a choice, unless they don't want to be leading the New World Order. But who will lead it? Russia, India? That wouldn't also be in China's plans, no?



Please confirm that that's not actually true.

If China wants to lead the "New World Order", it needs to have a very large Gold Reserve. Because if they don't, Russia will do it.

"NewWorldOrder" is not a plan of  "china #1 superpower". . nor "china own all the gold forever"
its actually more of a BRICS commonwealth.. china is trying to get away from single superpower infighting

energy crisis in the future will be trying to interconnect countries world wide where by the sunny side of planet can sell excess solar energy to dark side of planet like they are trying to turn northern africa into solar far, but then cable it into europe/middle east to sell the excess as the planet rotates

fossil reserves are going to diminish within half a century anyway, no matter if you want to blame NWO or climate or whatever reason for the transition away from fossil, thus not a crisis. but more of a predicament

A couple of things:
Chinese strategy has always been to act like a weasel. They did it during the Cold War between US and USSR and benefited greatly and have been following that strategy ever since, even today that US has officially declared war on China.
So yes, China doesn't want to fight US but US does. Look at what US considers #1 threat.

As for trade routes, I disagree with @carbon. All of them are threatened and disrupted by armed conflicts and cold wars.
In the sea, US is threatening China by controlling all the waterways specially in chokepoints namely Malacca. In fact one of the reasons why US has suddenly became so interested in Taiwan is to destabilize Chinese routes in the seas.
On the ground is the same too. The Belt and Road initiative goes through a bunch of countries. Check their list and see how every single one of them has been destabilized over the past couple of years (eg. Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, ...). Even tiny ones that could fall into a teeny tiny part of that route like Armenia!

As for the New World Order, things will go back to "normal" like before. Meaning a world where there is NOT a single power but multiple powers in the world. This is why we see multiple "blocs" usually economic blocs forming and getting stronger, one of which is BRICS.
In other words China will not replace US but will only be one of the powers (in East Asia). Russia will be another specially after defeating NATO in Ukraine (in North Asia and possibly eastern Europe). Iran is the other in West Asia. And finally if US doesn't fall apart like USSR, it will be the power in the West (includes Europe).

As for India, it has a lot of work to reach a "hegemony" status and is far from it. For now they are doing what China did decades ago, attracting foreign investors and strengthening economy. They don't yet have a strong and unifying ideology either. For example Modi is trying to establish his right wing Hinduism as the nationwide unifying ideology but it is radical and internally it is starting to cause chaos that in long term could tear India apart if they continue like this and fail.

Let me stop you there, because to be the leading Super Power in the New World Order, they can't act like a weasel forever. That "act", if maintained, will be the defeat of Russia and China's other allies. How then will the "New World Order" be acheived?

Plus it's laughable to have the presumption that China doesn't want to be the leader.


OK, but that doesn't change the FACT that China and Russia have been building a Gold hoard. Whether it's for their preparation for the fight for their "New World Order", probably debatable. But it's probably also good to check the Gold/commodities purchases of the other countries in the "BRICS Commonwealth".

Maybe it's not just gold, maybe the stock of basic food ingredients, China has also thought about and prepared from now on, even beforehand, where potential riots in the future will break out immediately, be it war or other major events if we observe at this time.

Well as I've always said, I don't believe the New World Order has any "leading super power". There will only be "power blocs". China may try to become US 2.0 (a unipolar world) after this New World Order (new new world order LOL) somewhere in 2050 maybe, but for now China alone can not even survive let alone want to be the solo power.

As for the weasel act and its consequences, you are on point although I wouldn't say "defeat" but it is putting pressure on others and I'd say the opposite could happen meaning if China keeps it up it could end up with the defeat of China itself. Keep in mind that in US National Security Strategy, China is considered enemy number one.
To keep this post short I won't get into the details of how with a simple shift US could do to China what they did to USSR, we can discuss it further if anyone is interested.

We're also already seeing this in BRICS where more members are complaining about how irresponsible China is acting specially in preventing the BRICS currency and SWIFT replacement from being introduced.

For the time being (possibly starting from 50's and specially during Cold War between US and USSR) this weasel strategy is the most beneficial for them so they'll keep it up. Just look what they're doing to their enemies in the West to see the benefits!
For example the deindustrialization of Europe (the competition in the markets), both US and Europe dependence on China that is growing every year! One of the biggest bag holders of US national debt is China, the biggest US/EU trade partner is China, the biggest US/EU trade deficit is with China and is growing, and a lot more.

Even in armed conflict the weasel act is helping China. Every bullet US shoots in another direction is a win for China.
This is getting so bad that even the thinktanks in Washington are raising alarms. The most recent one I read was about the $2 million dollar defensive missiles that US Navy has an extremely short supply of that are being wasted in the Red Sea trying to shoot down $20k drones and failing all to support genocide of Palestinians. Meanwhile the budget situation in US is so bad that Biden has only been capable of dedicating a tiny amount of money for such a small number of them that would only be enough for a couple of destroyers and not even fill their supplies :D they were building them for the possible future Taiwan invasion and any possible face off with China in the sea and they've already run out of these missiles...

is growing??

china de-dollarised its risk by selling them debt bonds..
(from 2000-2011 china gained upto $1.3trill of US bonds... in the last 2 years (2021-23) china dropped that down by half to ~$750b as of november 2023)

side note about the war in ukraine/russia
for every US missile donated to ukraines defence, .. ukraine gives an equal value amount of hectares of land to private investors of blackrock

..
as for what china wanted to then invest that spare $750b(of the $1.3b that was locked into bonds) in, ofcourse they bought gold.. but that doesnt mean they are going to hoard it forever, they are already talking about how to offload it into projects like real estate and silk road and collaboration with the middle easts smart cities projects

Russia is not at war with the entire Western world. Yes, European countries, the USA and some others provide financial and military assistance to Ukraine. But military aid is too selective. Until now, the allies are afraid to transfer long-range missiles to Ukraine, such as the German TAURUS with a range of 500 kilometers, as well as other long-range missiles. Only those missiles that have a short firing range are transferred to the anti-aircraft missile systems supplied to Ukraine. If Russia had fought against the entire Western world, Ukraine would have already had the opportunity to destroy the Crimean Bridge, through which Russian troops are constantly supplied on the southern front, and without it, the front from the Crimean Bridge would have long since collapsed for the invaders.

In addition, Ukraine attacks military and dual-use targets on Russian territory mainly only with Ukrainian-made drones, which it is still modernizing. One can only imagine what would be happening now on Russian territory if at least the same number of missiles and shells that Russia is now launching into Ukraine had exploded there.

Ukraine also still does not have Western aviation or Western naval forces. If Russia had really collided militarily with the Western world, the war would have ended long ago, but not in Russia’s favor.

Just because they've capped their aid to 100-300 km range, it doesn't mean a tiny bit higher range is categorized as "long range".
Generally speaking for cruise missiles 300-500 km range is still categorized as short range and barely enters the medium range category. Long range for cruise missiles starts from 1000 km range and above.

BTW something as weak as Taurus with its subsonic speed with a semi-light warhead and very weak accuracy is not helpful at all. There is a reasons the number of Taurus missiles produced and exported is extremely low.
If you want to use an example, at least use something decent. Even the shitty US made Tomahawk missiles with their high failure rate (1 out of 4 fails!) is much better than Taurus and is categorized as long-range for real (1700 km).

isnt it funny how russia has for decades said it has the best military and military inteliagence on the planet, on its path to being recognised as a superpower..
yet.. their actions of the last couple years do not live upto the catastrophic prophecy russia have been promoting they are capable of

EG playing devils advocate, if i was russia i would have(based on their promotions) used their so called precision missiles to in unison take out precision strikes on all ukrainian political buildings and military bases and void ukraine of any military response in one day

instead russia have been hitting random non important targets like residential apartment blocks and not precision striking all the meaningful targets

russia over the last couple years revealed they dont actually have the military power they promoted they had.

...
that said all countries say they do too.. but when they pretend they can see an incoming missile/nuke on their sophisticated radars they pretend to have, how come they can never locate missing 747 planes(rhetorical)

Man we're going waaaaaaay off topic here :P

Superpowers like Russia and US (and by extension NATO) have weak militaries with fancy equipment. In my opinion there are 3 main reasons for it:

First and foremost is that they have not been in any actual wars for decades (most of them after WW2) and that has made them soft. Even US regime that has spent all its time in wars hasn't been fighting "actual" wars. For example if you check all the countries they've invaded in the past 3-4 decades, they either had no military at all (eg. Afghanistan) or were already disarmed and their military, government, etc. had fallen apart (eg. Iraq, Libya, Syria, ...).

Second reason is after they built their nukes, they thought they are protected so they mostly stopped developing their armed forces technologically. I'm not saying there hasn't been any development, but there weren't any where it counted. I believe they call it "conventional warfare with conventional weapons".

And finally the development they pursued was mostly a stupid competition between themselves. For example US built F35, Russia built Su57. US built aircraft carriers, Russia built aircraft carriers. This is why for instance when US regime spends hundreds of billions of dollars and almost 3 decades in research and development of the most advanced stealth aircraft (project called "The Beast") it turns out so pathetic that the moment it gets close to the borders of a much more technologically advanced country called Iran, it is not only detected very easily but also hacked into, taken control of, landed safely and then decrypted, reverse engineered and mass produced in a short time!

There is little ingenuity in warfare among these so called "super powers"... this is why they keep losing their wars in the long run.

Your view of warfare is very far from reality, it's mostly something you see in Holywood. :D

Funny thing is that those idiots in Washington think like this too. Which is why they spent $12 trillion in West Asia in about 20 years and couldn't achieve any of their goals. We already saw how pathetically they escaped Afghanistan leaving behind $100 billion worth of weapons and ammunition for the cavemen called Taliban.
Things aren't significantly different for Moscow. In fact one of the first things I said when Russia invaded Ukraine was that Ukraine is Russia's Afghanistan.

Of course, Russia tried from the first days of its invasion to attack Kyiv and its central military and political organizations. Thus, it is known that in the first days of the invasion in the skies over Kiev, seven Russian military aircraft were shot down in just 11 minutes of battle, after which the Russian invaders became more cautious.
https://www.unian.net/war/zenitchik-rasskazal-kak-v-nachale-voyny-oboronyali-nebo-nad-kievom-novosti-kieva-11928549.html

Russia has also shelled the city of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, as well as military installations throughout Ukraine, since the early days of its invasion. Explosions were recorded in different parts of Kyiv, but in the central part, where the central authorities were located, there were practically no explosions. Most likely, Ukrainian air defense worked well there, which did not yet have the ability to effectively cover the sky over all of Kiev. But in response to a corresponding question, the Kremlin then said that they were not shelling the buildings of the central authorities of Kyiv because there was someone to sign the surrender of Ukraine.
In any case, later Putin’s army tried to destroy the central part of Kyiv, even using their new “dagger” missiles, but by that time Kyiv was under relatively reliable air defense protection. But rocket attacks on Kyiv and drone attacks have continued for the third year.

As for military facilities, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces secretly moved equipment, primarily aircraft, to alternate deployment sites before the attack, and this made it possible to preserve the bulk of aviation and other military equipment of Ukraine. Because of this, in the first months of a large-scale war, the Russians suffered staggering losses, forcing the aggressor army to withdraw its troops from central and northern Ukraine.

yes they shelled kiev.. but the accuracy is not as what the kremlim had been promoting they had the capability of for many decades.
it was not pinpoint targeting but more so like throwing a bunch of stones at an ant hoping atleast one stone hit an ant

..
anyways yes getting off topic

the energy crisis was inevitable even without "climate" dues to fossil reserve depletions known about since the 1980's which lead to the gulf wars to grab control of middle eastern reserves for western utility

the new world order is not going to be a single currency super power offsetting the dollars position.. but instead a common wealth of multiple domestic currencies inter-communicating and transfering cross-border at exchange rates done on a next  gen market. whereby multiple countries of populations that far exceed US population by a factor of 10, will have more economic power combined to unbalance US position of control

Observing the situation on the energy market I observe a surprising picture. After hysterical and hasty attempts of the world terrorist country to destabilize the world energy market, after huge information pressure of the whole world, and promises to freeze, immobilize, ruin.... The market adapted quickly enough ! Hysterical statements, threats, even oil and gas from the country of the terrorist stopped buying in huge volumes, having found other adequate suppliers. And - nothing happened, the world did not collapse. It is very happy that the world, even with internal contradictions, finds strength and common sense, and solves artificially created problems!

PS And thanks to the higher powers for a beautiful winter :)

what i observed, from the UK although we produce our own oil/fission energy that enters our country domestically, we were slaves to the US controlled international market, even for our own supplies to ourselves.. so when the russia/ukraine stuff occurred. it did affect our own domestic prices of energy..* our country even had to hand out social security 'energy/living cost' payments of £300($380) 3 times a year

i would actually prefer a system that is less controlled by one central US market. where if we make our own energy we get to price it to ourselves at our own costs. and any excess we dont need we could set our own prices on the international market

because the UK is in the north and smaller land mass compared to say spain france, our position of solar potential is not as much as spain, nor as early in the day as france. so when we become reliant on solar and other renewables in a couple decades. we then become more ransomed to the EU supplies for our morning coffee and bean on toast(mainly central/eastern europe to supply us with energy first thing when people wake up and use electric showers, lights and kitchen appliances to get ready on dark days of winter mornings**

*(and i say all this when living in a region that has its own nuclear power plant, which still didnt keep my bills down, when my energy is nuclear based)

**right now at nearing 4:am UK we are in complete night time. however eastern Ukraine is in complete daylight. so if they joined EU and UK had trade deal with EU we could be servant to energy imports of eastern Ukraine for energy at 4am during winter mornings
https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/15/JZ7pv.png

this too seeds into land fighting over the eastern ukraine land. look at the other countries like spain france that can gain early morning(dark night) energy from full daylight eastern ukraine if it was part of europe.. i know blackrock see the potential when peoples heating switches on before they get out of bed

(same goes for land disputes for using western africa for UK/EU's evening heating and household needs, though i see it more likely to be a cable running from canada to greenland to iceland to UK to import canada's excess daylight energy when uk/EU goes dark)

I have been to both Britain and Scotland. Indeed, the climate is harsh, and the geographical position affects it - both the more “northern position” and the surrounding water, which also affects the climate.

And of course I agree that, for example, solar power plants are not the best option. But.. A large coastal zone - as for me it is possible to use, for example, wind generators, tidal stations, wave stations,...
It seems to me that in the modern world, when we understand that fossil resources (now we are talking about energy resources) have limited easily extracted reserves, and have recently been used for economic terrorism, it is worth making efforts to build alternative energy and industry.

An alternative way is to build stable alliances that can build symbiotic economic projects within the framework of mutually beneficial cooperation. For example, Great Britain can invest (after the liberation of Urkiana from the Kremlin occupiers) money in the construction of, for example, a powerful solar farm in the Zaporozhye region (southern Ukraine, a convenient territory for such projects). Ukraine receives investments, jobs, taxes, Great Britain receives cheap electricity. Everyone benefits, everyone is happy.

the UK can do tidal and wind. but that also is battery charged energy to store excess to use when the water is calm and the wind is low. so yes aliances with neighbouring countries is in the plan too.. selling when in excess. and buying when in demand.

as for the ukrainian situation.. blackrock is investing in what they call "aiding the future rebuild of eastern ukraine".. and yes that is going to be power production.. not just house building

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-proviv-zustrich-iz-kerivnictvom-najbilshoyi-u-svit-82725
none of that announcement says things like "we want blackrock to rebuild only our citizens bombed houses

other things like
https://claverton-energy.com/prospects-for-trans-atlantic-undersea-power-transmission.html (canada to iceland to UK/europe)

https://balkangreenenergynews.com/several-undersea-power-cables-about-to-connect-europe-with-africa/

1. Yes, symbiosis in economics and energy, with today's technologies, is a very good way of development!

2. Regarding Blackrock’s plans - yes, I know that, first of all, these are INVESTMENT projects, mutually beneficial to both parties. Restoring civilian infrastructure, including the construction of houses and entire cities destroyed by Russian terrorists, will be a concomitant project with the construction of infrastructure facilities, and this is logical!

3. I once read that in order to COMPLETELY supply Europe with electricity, theoretically in the Sahara it is possible to build a mega solar farm on the territory belonging to Algeria, Libya, and Egypt. I think the implementation of a similar project is a matter of time...

you think blackrock is organising giving ukraine funding NOW (to help end the war) and blackrock is going to receive land to rebuild... housing of the displaced!!? to give back to the citizens that got displaced!!?... um no, just no

again this is what blackrock will actually do in the eastern ukraine reason when peace occurs

notice the lack of charity/residential/restoring civilian livelihood wording
notice how they say about large investments of energy security agriculture logistics medicine and IT

average joe family farmer is not going to get his farm back after having all land mines and debris removed and re-toiled ready for family to return and farm.. instead blackrock will take the land as thanks for funding the war effort. and blackrock will pass that to big agri to run the farms
(ukraine pushed back at first on this but gave in later)

average displaced citizen isnt going to get their small home/cottage rebuilt so they can move back home for free as compensation for their displacement
instead blackrock wants to make "smart cities" which will be different. yes they can offer an apartment of a skyscraper or apartment block and give them jobs in the smart city. but those people will end up paying rent/needing a mortgage. to buy it from blackrock
ukraine government will have to decide how these rents/mortgages will be subsidised to pay blackrock for those that suffered and returned.. but generally most apartments will be filled with new workers with skills/talents fit for the smart cities

(its the same game as the border disputes/guerilla warfare in africa over the last 50 years that displaced many.. now for instance even ethiopia is seeing its has developed many cities even when showing world wide tv appeals for charity..  the displaced are 3 generations deep still displaced, whilst skilled/talented people from multiple countries have moved into the recently built cities)

---

in all the wars/atrocities of the last 100 years. how many stories have you heard of the asylum seekers finding safe harbour in other countries due to being displaced, later speak of their life story where they went back to their homeland and had a new house waiting for them or compensation that set them up for life.. none. you only hear how they might get like 1 years worth of rent to start them up in the new country they found safe harbour in.

blackrock(and many companies before it that have gained via wars), are going to build for their benefit, not the displaced citizens benefit
so expect new smart cities and land used to generate electric to feed the rest of europe and electric cabled neighbouring countries/regions

What Blackrock proposes, even taking into account the fact that you have exaggerated the picture too much, is still more acceptable for Ukraine than being swallowed up by the Russian horde, where the people of Ukraine will simply be physically destroyed. Of course, any foreign commercial company will offer its services for the restoration of Ukraine on favorable terms. But in Ukraine, even taking into account global warming, the climate will be quite comfortable for living, there are fertile lands rich in black soil, a well-developed industry, educated and hard-working people. Therefore, there should be many mutually beneficial proposals and Ukraine will be able to choose the best of them. It is more important here that officials in the Ukrainian government do not abuse their powers for personal gain.

The American company RocketStar has already announced the creation of a new ion engine that includes thermonuclear fusion. The new engine will be used in missions to orbit later this year and uses water as fuel. But this nuclear fusion is different from the process of releasing huge amounts of energy through the fusion of hydrogen into helium, which occurs on the Sun.

RocketStar uses its version of neutronless fusion in its FireStar Drive engine. This is a pulsed plasma engine with advanced thermonuclear fusion technology, which uses water mixed with boron as fuel.

The operating principle of the engine is as follows: when a collision of water molecules and boron atoms occurs, the former disintegrate and protons are released at high speed. The protons then collide with boron atoms and fuse to form the highly unstable molecule carbon-12. It decays almost immediately into alpha particles and a beryllium nucleus, which in turn quickly decays into more alpha particles. After this, energy is released, which increases thrust by 50%.
It is predicted that with the help of such an engine it will be possible to travel to other stars.

https://focus.ua/technologies/636022-sozdan-kosmicheskiy-dvigatel-na-termoyadernom-sinteze-on-uzhe-gotov-k-poletu-foto

I have heard a lot of stories about the energy crisis in the current era because of the high dependence on fossil materials which until now has been difficult to overcome because of long-standing use. The solution already exists but has not been effective until now. The energy crisis is of an unprecedented severity and Europe is The center of this crisis is the high demand for exports which continues to increase. The current energy crisis is much bigger than the oil shock in 1970 with the emergence of many environmentally friendly technologies. It is hoped that in the future it will be even better and solve current problems.

The current energy crisis is a very mild one in comparison to the one in the 70's. If memory serves at that time the oil price went from about $3-$4 all the way up to $12-$15. By comparison the price has to go up to above $200.

Apart from price, the shortage was also a lot more severe. Arabs as the biggest energy suppliers cut the supply to the West. However, today these Arab dictators are in a much worse situation and owe their remaining in power to the Western colonizers. If they were to cut the supply, they would be toppled very quickly and very easily. So they may reduce their production since they can't face the Eastern hegemonies but they will never cut it entirely because they also can't go against their bosses' wishes!

Europe has been pushing to become a much greener continent. They are advocating for the use of renewable energy in different fields. If we do not generate energy as fossil fuels run out, all global trade will come to a halt. It has been said that fossil fuel might run out at year 2060 so you can see why most countries are aiming now to become more environmentally sustainable.

But why is it still not effective? Well, we have become too dependent on fossil fuels and a lot of our processes can’t be done without great amounts of energy which renewable energy struggles to do so.

Since renewable energy come and go depending on weather conditions, it’s hard to store said energy. It is a regret that we have not yet found the absolute cure for this but I hope not only Europe but the whole world pushes for a green world.

The world has gone through many global oil crises till date and I believe you are asking about the current oil crisis. Oil shortages are caused by rising oil prices, which are often accompanied by reduced oil supplies. As oil provides the leading energy resource for highly developed industrialized economies, an oil crisis could threaten political and economic power in the global economy.

Remember last year the false arguments some users were making about OPEC countries reducing production while price drops? That was false because their reduction was supposed to start this year not back then. They just made the decision then and made it public.

Surely enough as they started cutting supply with the start of 2024, the price started rising and in first quarter of this year we are back to $90 a barrel again. Of course there are other contributing factors as I've already covered them multiple times, but this chart clearly shows the effects of that supply cut:
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/04/03/VyK1m.jpeg

The hardship, inflation that we are facing today is a result of the oil crisis. I feel we have put our hope in it so much for generating of money and as source of energy for innovation sndbi can see that this crisis is getting worse and it is causing more problems to the world in generations.  I feel if there are new innovations and will demand others source of energy like the hydro, it will help to reduce the crisis going on in the world because oil won't be much relevant because if we should look into effects of the oil crisis it is causing more harm to the humanity,  economy going down which is affecting everything, increasing the rate of poverty.  Some countries have channel all their attention to oil, they can't even think of other ways of developing new things.

That's inflationary, and that would definitely force the Federal Reserve to keep it "higher for longer", then start taking a more hawkish tone again. Plus as prices of services and commodities go up further, the people's savings will run out sooner or later, which would make them take on more debt that they can't pay.

Therefore if the people have no more to spend = Economic Collapse. Demand goes down, prices go down, the economy shrinks, and Crude Oil prices will go down despite having cut the supply.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yes, indeed, oil prices have risen to the $90 area and experts predict that if OPEC won't increase production, prices are going to exceed $100 in Q3/Q4 2024. Perhaps Ukrainian trolls can comment?  ;D

That's probably a good time for the United States to increase their Crude Oil production further, no? Their domestic economy alone could buy more than 50% of that, with the rest of it going to other regions of the globe. The OPEC doesn't have the monopoly on the production of Crude Oil, therefore higher prices would also be advantageous for those countries like the United States, China, and Russia which do NOT belong to OPEC.

i got to repeat this as its worth repeating

inflation makes everything go up
we are not going to return to 1940-1970's prices where houses were $10k-$40k and oil was $20-$34 'norms' (average range)
we are not going to return to 1970-1990's prices where houses were $40k-$1m and oil was $21-$150'norms' (average range)


we are in the 2020's where prices of houses are $100k-$100m and oil is $21-$200+
we need to realise the natural average value of houses is not going to be <$40k
we need to realise the natural average value of oil is not going to be <$40

<$40k houses is the exceptional "dilapidated/needs total rebuild" of housing where its not 'turn key ready' average housing price expectations anymore

<$40 is the exceptional oil commodity market "crisis" of issues with commodity futures trading errors of over trading a commodity futures option but unable to hold/receive the underlying contracted oil at completion, thus causing mass resell to try to shift who gets left with commodity they cant hold

here in the UK in the 1990's when oil was <$40 car fuel was under £0.60 ($0.80/litre)
i am not under any delusions that oil should go back to <$40 as a "value/average" and i dont expect fuel costs to ever go back to $0.80/litre
the under $40 oil is an exception of a BAD market, not an expectation of good market function

..
in short
stop being shocked or horrified by oil prices being $90+.. instead expect it more often as its becoming the new norm to be above $90 more often.. its called inflation, remember we are not in the 1970's any more

When interest rates are high and going higher, people tend to spend less and not take any more debt on. That means it will only deepen the recession not increase their debt.
As for what this is going to cause, I agree with what you said but only under normal circumstances. In other words the "cycles" you describe will at some point lead to economic collapse before things restart again.

I don't think it is possible to have a significant increase in production anymore. They've already done increasing it. Not to mention the more you extract fossil fuels the harder it's going to get to extract the rest as the pressure drops and the source empties so the production would naturally drop.

We need to move away from oil and gas as the main sources of energy, and at the maximum possible pace, while we can still control the climate on our planet. Nowadays you can periodically read or hear in the news about the invention of new methods for obtaining energy from alternative sources, including more and more economical solar panels, and it is these areas that need to be developed. They may well replace oil and gas and provide humanity with cheap and inexhaustible energy. Therefore, I do not expect any energy crisis in the future.