Bitcoin Forum

My recommendations

• Don't try to find All time high, you can not predict it correctly and you will only know ATH of a cycle after you are already in a bear market.
• Don't time the market. Let's the market runs and try to exit with market cycle length, that you can base on Bitcoin history.
• Each cycle is unique and it can be longer or shorter than previous cycles but if you make your strategy on average cycle length, you will not take profit too far from the ATH & more important you will be able to avoid stuck too deep in a bear market.
• If you don't want to exit the market by taking profit with all bitcoins you have, do DCA for profit taking, withdrawal like this strategy.
  
  • [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.0)
  • https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
• Biggest common mistake of newbies is trying to find absolute bottom or ATH. Just don't!

---

---

Now, let's use following flow of thinking and plan from LadyofCrypto1 (https://twitter.com/LadyofCrypto1).

I will keep her content originally as it is. My own thinking is above.

I am new in bitcoin and I haven't experienced any bull run after the halving, and this will be the first halving and bull run that I will experience. But from the article that you provided, it shows that bitcoin has repeated history, over and over again, which means that we should expect such price movement during this period to the ATH. It is just that it will not be accurate or exactly like the previous ones, but from past event,it shows that it might be similar, and the odds are high.

Due to the fact that I can't really tell when the new ATH will be, I have decided to have a price target that if bitcoin price reaches, I will take profit, and if it doesn't reach such price target, I will just wait and hodli. I plan to sell only 40% of my portfolio, and hodli the rest. I don't play with altcoins because they are like gambling, due the pump and dump nature.

I agree with everything you've said that we will not be able to find out that it is the peak of the bull run. But whenever we do, that's nice and we're able to spot out the top of it because normally, we don't. We can take a guess when we get there but we can't be sure if greed will hit us or not.

It is a cycle and the patterns that we're seeing might change or could be the same and we're getting close to that.

That's a good strategy, you have to set a price target because as said, you will be having hard time to determine if that's the ATH. The emotions will be high when we keep on seeing the surge and to the point that you may miss the ATH and not be able to sell, we can point that fault to ourselves if we are not able to take profits.

I was planning to buy a new car but since bullish direction is obvious with market prices of crypto, I decided to postpone my plan and just wanting to put all of it for third quarter of this year where uprise is expected. My plan is to accumulate as much as I can and hold it until the next cycle of Bitcoin.  I know things won't happen in a instant so yes, I still create a margin for my bills and expenses and to avoid the tendency of pulling out my assets and holdings. I know most of us are having or thinking of the same thing and I hope all of us will make big profit by that time this market again break the ceiling. Planning will be always needed to lessen mistakes. Remember that entry point could be crucial so better be conscious of making rush decisions.

Based on charts and previous witnessing of bulltrend, things will not be consistent. It is important to know when is the right time to sell or buy again if you are into swing trades. And if you are looking forward with long term holding, be sure to avoid checking smaller time frames or prices from time to time. Know your goal and create your own vision of how you will be making a move this time. Everything is in our hands and that should be an enough reason for us to be careful for the right timing.

That's a good recommendation in general, not just for newbies. I'd also add: Don't try to find the all time bear run low. As it appears to this date, it was $16k on December 2022, after the FTX news. Not that it matters currently, we're in the middle of a bear and a bull.

Yeah, that's pretty much why I don't consider Bitcoin a risky investment if the time span is more than four years. As long as it retains this "unofficial currency / financial instrument" title, it follows that pattern. And I know, we shouldn't rely on statistics, and it might break the pattern this time, but the fact that it has repeated for like four times should tell us something.

My biggest hurdle right now is the courage to enter whenever the price is being nuke while  I can’t buy either when the price is pumping. This is not my problem in the past but given the fact that the hype on ETF is already over makes me overthink that the price will suffer first a long bear market before we experience a massive bullrun just like what we are experiencing in every cycle after the halving.

Your chart of bullrun is really helpful to become optimistic on the future. The timing to enter is what making me problem right now.

Does anyone here still waiting for that massive correction around 30K or below before the real bullrun or this kind of waiting is already bullshit?

In general it is good advice, what happens is that if you have experience and knowledge on the subject, in addition to making DCA, you can do DCA partial sales at certain times. For example when the price clearly beats the previous ATH, say when it is at $75K, then when it hits $105K (I foresee huge resistance at $100K) and then put in every $25K after that figure. JJG has fairly detailed posts on this.

With knowledge you can do variants of DCA by taking advantage to buy more in bear markets and do partial sells in bull markets.

This is exactly the kind of phobia that long term holding pattern actually eliminates. The bitcoin price is always unpredictable with or without the ETF hype so if you’re having trouble about whether the price will fall more the bull run will kick starts now, which is not common according to past trends I will tell you to simply go long term and probably calculate the average price of your current holding and then set a price target to take profits, this way you’ll be at peace holding and wouldn’t be scared of this fluctuations.


FUDs are still predicting this although some traders haven’t rule this out but one thing is don’t depend on speculations, take the chance now and invest you can use the DCA method which has been a productive pattern use by many in the past. Waiting for a correction might be a risk too much because there is possibility that it wouldn’t come again.

reviewing the "lady of crypto1" charts of 2024-2025.. seems rational assumptions
i came to similar presumptions myself
(reaching ~$70k by end of 2024-start of 2025)
2025 ATH being (based on todays mining value-premium) of ~$140k maybe $160k market capable window of speculation high
all seem rational..

however. the rational assumptions/presumptions based on past performance patterns, usually break when too many people see how rational they are.

this is because people then plan on trading to "beat the pattern" because the pattern made the most sense. and this planning means people start taking profits before the rational presumptions of peaks. which then work against the presumptions by making the real future peak change due to everyone planning based on the presumptions

as an added presumptive note.. after the 2025ATH, old patterns suggest that the correction after 2025ATH wont drop below the previous cycles 2021ATH

but as i said if too many people start taking these presumptions as rational plans. people then counter-plan and cause a change to what could happen

---

for instance imagine time travel was possible and in a time variant where these rational presumptions were not discussed, we then seen the reality of the market points at different times actually occurring. EG
december 2024 tipped to $70k
august 2025 ATH at $200k
august 2026 corrected to new bottom of $70k

and then we came back to the present to say these predictions. and then waited in real time, from present to see where the markets went
the numbers and points would change based on people counter-planning against the predictions

Good recommendations, I think it's best to DCA out late 2024 or early 2025 whenever the time may be, and then when the cycle hits a bear I will most definitely be buying back.

I am happy to see the tool I have created with JayJuanGee (his ideas) are being useful and people are sharing it!

This is now my withdrawal strategy as well. I am using it as a guide to how much to withdrawal in bull run cycles.

I like this approach buyback is one of those things that keep a short-term investor and Bitcoin market speculator in the best position to always be in profits all the time if there is a proper understanding of the market and applying the DCA approach to things.
Many times some investors wait for too long before they make a DCA decision and when to either enter the market or exit rhe market,  this have made entire process tiresome for many of us and for that, we need to make a proactive attempt to always give the market the vest short even if the all-time high is not reached but using DCA to either take profits of buy back at a discounted price.

I dont have any particular plans or tactics in mind.  Im mostly just trying to get my hands on as much Bitcoin as possible while prices stay low.  Timing the markets perfectly or scoring a quick buck? Not my priority - I know crypto is a long game.  The keys Ive learned are patience and self-control.  So Ill stick to steadily buying and holding for now.  We will see where this takes me! 

I figure predictions are mostly guesses anyway and  and this space moves too fast to keep up.  I would rather focus on what I can control.  If I keep investing what I can afford to lose, I think Ill do alright in the end.  Who really knows though?

Well, How can you make the most of this bull market? Secondly, only positive things can be anticipated if you fix your investment target level in accordance with your plan and have a clear idea. You can't predict it, though, because we need to know what will happen and can only make educated guesses until we have all the information. You are attempting to recount the Bitcoin's history.

You'll know how the ATH is done. And the ATH is already over, which makes us think a lot about the ATH. I know about the bear market in ATH, but I feel the massive bull run in ATH since it was the first problem. Insights from your chart help you to be optimistic about the future. Looking at the old data, it is clear that the state after the previous ATH will go down from the state before the next ATH.

Usually, there will be a little problem at first, but even if it is a temporary problem, it will not be a problem later. The cryptocurrency market is a lottery. Playing cryptocurrency for a long time would be beneficial. This situation can only be resolved with collapsed structures. You have to take a step back, consider your options, and concentrate on what you believe to be the best.

If you wait for the bear season to buy back, wouldn't that be a problem for you because you're missing out on opportunities and at the same time we don't know when it's going to hit the rock bottom for the bear season so it's going to be problematic right? Totally agree on DCA though and if you really decide on the buy back part though, make sure that you're going to buy back big because you don't want to be regretting not buying a lot when it was the supposed lowest price of bitcoin and your only regret is that they didn't pay you more so you can buy more bitcoin.

Good advice all-round OP, timing the top is near impossible, it's better to take profit when it's good enough, every profit is considered a profit, even if it times two or times four, unrealized profit will turn to losses later, imagine waiting for years to see Bitcoin at a new all time high and you failed to take profit because you believe that it's just getting started? That will be so painful.

I can say the same thing with Bear market too, timing the bottom have make many people to miss it already, the feeling of never getting enough is greed, when the FTX saga started I knew it will hit very hard, probably the best buying opportunity, I went all into Bitcoin then and I started saving some USDT again, and when 15k Bitcoin happened I did the same thing.

Those who are expecting 10k Bitcoin will never get it again, and they will probably buy back at 30k range if they are lucky, instead of targeting the market price action it's better to use the cycle, Bear market is a buying period and bull market is a selling period, if you don't follow this you will miss out.

Don't wait for the market to get up before you'd DCA. The best time to DCA is today and when you've got money, I think by that time when the halving is done we'll see it quite hard for some price drops.

But since we're not yet on the halving, there's still a possibility that we'd see it go down a bit. Maybe going back to $38k and quite lower than that. If you think that it's best for the last 2024 before the actual bull run for which likely on 2nd-3rd quarter of 2025, we will see.

Mostly this is the best strategy but we don't know how many will just spend all of the profits for the things they need and won't be buying back.

I did not predict anything. Those tweets are not mine and tweets reveal historic rhythm. Believe in history or don't believe in it, it's your freedom and rights. I am not here to convince you to believe in it.

For me, I myself believe in history before a cycle we have a new history.

It's because the idea is excellent and you built up a great tool for it. It's not perfect but I am not looking for perfection.


It is true and I did not mention it because this topic is about plan in bull run. So when I was composing this thread, I forgot about bear market.

l planned to invest some of my money in bitcoin and live the investment for a long time. l may or may not wait till the end of the bull run before l sell almost all or all my investment, depending on the outcome of things along the path. My target is to make reasonable and good profit at the end of it all.

OP, good analysis. The bitcoin market cycles have been working like clockwork so while we can't know what the next peak will be, we have a very good idea of roughly when it will be and at least a general range it should be in, and we know how the cycle operates through its four years duration. This makes Bitcoin the easiest investment to make a ton of money on, not only is it one of the best growing assets in the world, but also it is extremely predictable. You analysis points that out for anyone who isn't already very aware of it.


Though I did laugh at this: "The ETF has so far not propelled BTC to 100k overnight as many assumed." hahaha I certainly hope no one was naive enough to think that! Though I do remember last year in March or April seeing people on here predict Bitcoin would be hitting $60k by like June of last year, so I guess some people just reallyyyyyyy overestimate how fast Bitcoin grows haha. For anyone who understands the market cycles and Bitcoin's growth, we've known $100k is coming in 2025 and no sooner. And second half of 2025 is the time to start DCA'ing out to take any market cycle gains for those who want to do that. I personally plan to do that with some of my Bitcoin this time around, and buy back a bit on the crash in 2026.



Oh also good job pointing out that the last bear market was the least severe yet. While the bear market was going on I saw sooooo many people and even mainstream news sites claiming that the bear market was the worst one in history for Bitcoin, when in fact it was the LEAST severe crash Bitcoin has ever had. I was always so confused why everyone was under the delusion that it was the worst when it was the least worst. Granted it did have a bunch of collapses in the crypto industry, so maybe that is what people were talking about, but the thing is that DESPITE all those collapses of Terra Luna, the whole crypto lending industry, some crypto investment firms, and finally FTX, the bear market was the most shallow one yet! Which really strongly shows that Bitcoin crashes are getting less severe since the industry ecosystem collapses were the worst yes, but even that couldn't stop the bitcoin price crash from being the least severe one in Bitcoin's history. In the next bear market, if the companies in the industry can learn from the mistakes of last time and avoid those sorts of collapses, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin crash only maybe 55-60%.

This is a nice speculation that is backed by data. Though I don't care that much currently as I'm focusing on accumulating as much crypto as I can. I just think that it's better to focus on gaining some seeds now to sell on the bull market than spending huge amount of time on making wild speculation. I'll let people like LadyofCrypto1 do her thing in giving us information like this, I'm ok with a secondhand knowledge.

Maybe I'll comeback in this thread on the next few months if I can feel a very bullish action from bitcoin.

Let's not try to overcomplicate things, when everything is actually really simple. Just have patience and HODL. That's pretty much it.
There will be price drops before the big bull run. Don't panic and never sell during a price drop. The market will start going up sooner or later.
My plan is to wait until the BTC price hits 2x of the current levels and I will start selling parts of my BTC wealth. If the future Bitcoin ATH is 3x of the current price that would be great, but I don't think that Bitcoin is capable of reaching a 120K USD price.
By the way, this topic belongs to the Trading Discussion forum(or maybe the Speculation forum).

BITCOIN has always been backed by data, and with that same data they can speculate, but even with the speculation they can not predict what will happen to Bitcoin, i love how you have channeled your energy to accumulating more, and instead of worrying about the price you can rather just invest in bitcoin the more. because everything about Bitcoin is time. following the farming principle of putting more energy into investing than the profit and if you can accumulate as much as you can then you will get a beautiful reward during a bull run because now nobody can say whether a bull run will happen or not. and people who focus on speculations might even end up selling. because they have their hopes high already. and that is not how Bitcoin works. emotion should be out of it and it is better not to expect anything. so that it won't be like you are holding and all you want is just to make a profit.

It's not as simple as it seems. If it were, then everyone would have already been able to do it and follow the cycle of the price of Bitcoin during every bull run. This is particularly challenging for most Bitcoin investors, including newbies, as they don't know what to do in every market scenario. What you say may sound easy, but it's actually difficult to execute.

If history repeats itself, it is good to start DCA in Q3 2026 and continue till the end of 2027.

I think different.

I expect new all time highs, new parabolic curves will be smaller than previous three cycles BUT I expect the future corrections from all time highs to market bottoms will be nearly the same like somewhere around 70% to 80%.

Bottom line is if you know from bottom price, Bitcoin will make its new all time high like x2 or x3 from the bottom, who actually cares about 10% cheaper for entry.


This chart is a good reminder for people who are panic before a Bitcoin halving and a big bull run.

My plan is still the same just like what I have done back then and since it ends in a good way, I made a decision to make my investment as the same as possible because I'm not a risk-taker and I can't recover easily from a big loss if something unexpected will happened. So I'll stick with my traditional plan in this halving season and if I lose, I won't suffer as much as the other big investors. I recommend to give other method of investment a try if you have enough money to invest because this time has a huge potential to increase at another ATH.

Picking other viable options to invest in like real estate is recommended also. You should not sell off all your bitcoins for another investments, but can skim off some profit if you have invested well in bitcoins, to have other good investments outside cryptocurrency.

I don't have any bitcoin holdings, so I'm ready for the bull market. I have been trying to accumulate little by little, but I wasn't able to do it. At some point, I was in a situation to spend, and I completely used it. Soon after the previous halving, I decided to hold and accumulate until the 2024 halving, but the financial requirements during the same period as the earnings weren't that good due to COVID. Making more sources of income will help us save more and hold it for the long term.

I find your plan very easy and simple to follow. I am not targeting the all-time high before selling part of my investment because it is unpredictable. I am not also a high-risk taker so I have an average target and immediately it gets to that point, I will take my profit. If the price goes far above my target after my sales, good luck to the maximum risk-takers.

The economic problems brought by COVID-19 affected many businesses which led to pay cuts, job losses, and inflation. The economies of most nations were about to recover when the crisis in Ukraine erupted and now multiple wars are disrupting the global economy. Surviving is now difficult while saving looks impossible. I am hoping that the global economy will improve this year and maybe through determination, diligence, and sacrifice one might take advantage of the next bear run to accumulate through DCA.

From my experience during 8 years, I can say that it's not hard either to find and catch all-time ath but the problem is that you have to spend days and nights awake to do that and it's difficult or almost impossible.  Luckily, I was awake when Bitcoin reached 70K ATH. I sold my coins once Elon Musk made a tweet about removing BTC payments on Tesla, I remember clearly that it was a moment when price started to fall, Binance was even down for many people because of increased traffic and it was almost impossible to buy or sell, I remember I sold Bitcoin immediately and the next day I bought Matic because it was the only coin that wasn't going down and was steadily increasing.

Every bull market is a very exciting opportunity to make money but it's mentally tough to handle stress. OP, your list contains lots of good advice for not only newbies but also for professionals but when it comes to action, it's becoming tough to keep them in mind because everyone wants to profit a lot and everyone is afraid that they haven't caught ATH and maybe they are missing a big profit on the way.

I would say don’t make any plans. We have known what Bitcoins are capable of. Hence the ideal plan will be to just relax and invest directly. Don’t make any strategies or anything. Just follow the basics and invest into the coins directly. In this bull market it is estimated that Bitcoins will go 3 times the price. So accumulate as many Bitcoins as you can and invest patiently.

As soon as I see such forecasts, I want to sell my portfolio for trading.

https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-price-prediction-2024

"In aggregating the varied predictions from several pundits and renowned industry experts, we observe a central theme: the average Bitcoin price prediction for 2024 hovers around $87,000. This figure, culled from a Finder survey of 31 FinTech experts, serves as a significant indicator of the market's expectations and sentiment regarding Bitcoin's value post-halving."

End of November 2013: $900. Next time with $900: end of January 2017. Time in between: 3 years, 2 months.
Mid-December 2017: $19k. Next time with $19k: start of December 2020. Time in between: nearly 3 years.
Yeah, there's a difference, but I'd say it's a very small one. Then, if we count November 2021 with $67k as the ATH, the next time the price reaches that level should be November 2024 or somewhere around that time, but the recovery of the market in general can, of course, start much earlier.
So far, to me, the differences aren't that big, but we'll see if this 3-year (give or take a couple of months) cycle thing checks out this time.

Interesting that LadyofCrypto1 calculates her cycles differently, but her result is also November 2024, just like in my case.

Of course I am looking forward to the Bitcoin bullrun but at the moment I have enough desire to plan but no budget to execute the plan. But I must have budgeted a certain amount for Bitcoin bullrun after the Bitcoin halving where I will definitely buy Bitcoins if a good environment is created in the market. However, Bitcoin is currently in a good investable environment and the market is hovering around $40,000-43000. However, investors may not get such a good correction for Bitcoin investments before the halving in April. If I had the budget right now I would invest in Bitcoin.

It is obvious that Bitcoin is slowing down, the more expensive it becomes, the more difficult it will be for it to repeat previous achievements. If we consider the bottom in this cycle to be 16k (rounded), then I think that x5 - x7 is what we can really see on bullrun, I don’t really hope for more.
But everything can change if market conditions change, if for example, a decision is made again to print a lot of US dollars, and will give a new impetus to inflation, and in this case I admit that the price of Bitcoin may reach even greater growth. So for now my forecast is this, but if something changes, it may affect Bitcoin.

Frequently, I try to make it clear that I am not an advocate for selling of BTC for anyone who still considers themselves in their accumulation phase of bitcoin, so even though I talk quite a bit about various selling techniques, most of my techniques presume a status of over accumulation. .whether it is in my investment ideas thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719584#msg58719584) or in my sustainable withdrawal thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213914#msg63213914).

Of course, everyone is responsible for his own techniques, and surely it becomes problematic for guys who might sell and expect to buy back at lower prices, so most of my techniques that include BTC selling involve presumptions that you will never be able to buy back... so if you cannot overcome that presumption and to be willing to live with not being able to buy back the coins that you sell, then you are likely not ready for selling any of them. .and just keep  buying until you get to such a level and you are able to work out some kind of a BTC selling technique that makes sense for you and your situation.

Another important point from my perspective, is that I employ incrementalism, so even if I might start selling BTC, I am never selling large amounts, and if you have over accumulated you could sell up to 10% every time the price doubles, but you might not start any selling until you are at least in profits 100% or more.... unless you are way over accumulated, then you would have more flexibility, but still I tend to stick to formulas in which I would never run out of BTC, even if continuing to sell at various points on the way up.. and I also am not trying to predict the price, so the price comes to points that I have already chosen, whether it is selling or attempting to buy back and if the price does not go to those points then I end up just waiting it out..


Another approach is to invest a smaller amount.

So if you had been investing $100 per week, then maybe you should just invest $10 per week in order that you can sustain your investing at a level in which you are not going to be tempted to dip into the investment...

But yeah, you may well have a personality problem and lack of discipline.. so you have to teach yourself that if your investing for the long term, such as 4-10 years or longer, then you should not be fucking around with it.

So pick an amount that you can stick with and maybe you have to just start out with $10 per week and maybe you can increase it at various points down the road, and then maybe 10 years after you start then you can consider if you might want to start to sell some of it... but it might not even be necessary to consider selling at all if you are able to figure out a way to buy without being tempted to sell.

It can take years and years to really build up an investment portfolio, and even those people who invest up to 10% of their salary will take 10 years to get to 1 years worth of salary invested.. so if you are not even investing 10% it is going to take you a long time, and probably people have to try to work up to being able to invest 10% or more, especially if they ever want to get to fuck you status, which tends to be in the ballpark of 20-30 years worth of salary invested/saved, and many times there will be a reliance upon appreciation of your investment rather than strict saving/investing, even though people who really aggressively invest, like in the ballpark of 30% to 50% of their salary, they will be able to make progress a lot faster than those who are way more whimpy in their investing/savings,

and surely you have to have your shit together if you are investing 30% to 50% of your salary, so most people should shoot to sustain something like 10% prior to adjusting upwards and making sure that they have an emergency fund, reserves and a float, which it can take a while to build up those things too.. you cannot be aggressive with your investment if you are not organized, otherwise you are either gambling and/or you are going to be weak-handed if you are not sufficiently organized in your own personal financial management.


You are not completely wrong in your focusing on BTC accumulation; however, your suggestion not to plan is a kind of failure.

One of the ways to deal with extremely high volatility is to have a plan, whether it is to sell some BTC on the way up or to just continue to accumulate or to just change your accumulation plan... those are all kinds of plans, so your actual plan to just continue to accumulate is a kind of plan that does not involve selling in this particular cycle.. and there is no problem with that.. especially since it can take 30-40 years in traditional markets to reach something like fuck you status, and if you are able to invest into bitcoin in a way that you might be able to cut that down in half and maybe it ONLY ends up taking you 15-20 years to get to fuck you status, and that could be a goal..

keep accumulating BTC until you reach fuck you status.. and don't lose your coins.. those are all plans... yet they are plans that involve not selling any of your BTC until you reach a certain higher level of BTC accumulation and then you can plan at that point whether you want to create any other kind of a plan that might not be ONLY about BTC accumulation because at some point you might determine that you have accumulated enough BTC, and even more than enough BTC in terms of your own personal circumstances.


Yeah.. wisdom of the crowds.  Have fun staying poor.

Sometimes it is better not to follow the wisdom of the crowds unless you want to have mediocre results.. .especially when it comes to something like bitcoin.

One of the advantages of bitcoin and any of us who have been studying the space for a while is that we have asymmetric information.. in other words superior information, and so it seems to take a while for public knowledge to catch up and part of the reason that some of the long term BTC holders have profited so greatly, even if they did not know any specifics about BTC's price direction, they were still directionally right by choosing to accumulate bitcoin and to error on the side of accumulation and holding rather than selling.


It is dangerous to lock yourself into such strictness in your thinking, but there should be no problems trying to anticipate some price waves as long as you don't try to trade on that information and end up selling too much too soon..

In a situation like the one you described, of course each person will not be able to have Bitcoin that they can hold for a long period of time because of COVID, each person will certainly find it very difficult to earn income so that they can save and also invest and if the situation improves, of course they will be able to invest. like other people do to be able to profit from holding Bitcoin in the long term.

If you already understand that the price of Bitcoin will increase in the next few months then you have to try very hard to be able to save money so that you can collect funds that you can use to invest in Bitcoin, because by just having a plan and not having funds that we can invest of course we are not really sure that the price of Bitcoin will increase because if you are really sure of course you will try as hard as possible to invest in Bitcoin but don't force yourself to invest so that we won't be able to survive the investment we make the.

We know and believe that bitcoin price will recover from its previous ATH but it will be so fast and it will complete every four year circle so successfully that I am more confirmed by the current situation. today Bitcoin price increased by 10% to 56.5k+ Those of us who were not able to buy during the Bitcoin Dip are regretting it a lot. But if we are still not interested in buying then we will have more regrets in the coming days. so we still have many opportunities.  Investments can still be continued following the DCA strategy. I have already started this myself...

I think bitcoin price can cross $100k very soon but since bitcoin price can't be predicted with guarantee I can't guarantee it but I personally believe

I predict the top of the bull market between December 2024 to March 2025 based on past Bitcoin bull runs. Just keep buying Bitcoin until the end of the year.

Yes, My feeling tells me that bitcoin is likely to make two runs and then reach its ath peak at >120k$. Therefore, realizing profits is nothing more than having to Hodl bitcoin 70% and the rest will be a story about AI, Defi, Layer 2, Gamefi, in addition to being ready with ETH, BNB, SOL, DOT... season Altcoins are getting closer. Be ready for scenarios and situations where the market may occur.

I don't know if everyone on this forum is 100% invested in bitcoin like they are saying. But I think during this bull season, allocating 20% - 30% of our capital to altcoins is not as bad an idea as many people say. During the off season, investing in altcoins is a really bad idea but we are entering the bull season when most markets will go up. So missing out on great opportunities with altcoins is truly a waste. Why don't we take advantage of the bull season to speculate on altcoins and make profits, then take that money and invest it in bitcoin when another bear season comes?

Depending on the amount of an investor that is when they may choose if they will accumulate only bitcoin in their portfolio or diversify by adding other altcoins into them. But i can't think or imagine adding any altcoins during this period of my accumulation. If i have enough money to buy bitcoin like at least $100 in bitcoin every week i will disregard altcoin entirely. Fuck shitcoins for now, i can only play around it if i want my kids to have little on their wallet. Funny i don't have any kids yet but bitcoin which will reach 60k before the end of this week should be enough reason for any investor to focus on accumulating it rather than thinking about shitcoins.

My plan is very simple hold unitl six figures then sell half

That means you are already invested in Bitcoin or you are still buying?

What do you think will happen within six months? Are you just buying to make some quick profits and sell off?

I'm still buying because I'm using the DCA method. So long as Bitcoin is still below $100k, it is still a good buy for me in this present market cycle.

 I plan to hodl for several years so I'm not panicking over the present bullish market. The bigger bull market is coming in the near future

Of course I am ready and the plan is the same as it used to be in my first bull market of 2017 - hold.

I took some profit every bull market, but it was what I call survival profit. To hold a lot of bitcoin you need many things. You need to secure your home, make sure you have a hardware wallet and nobody can take your money from you. You need to be healthy, eat well, live long, otherwise you won't be able to eat the fruit of your labor when the time comes.

Having that in mind I sold some of my bitcoin in every bull market, but it wasn't a lot, sometimes 10%, sometimes less. I still have at least 80% of what I held in 2016, but the profit allowed me to live a happy life.

I have exactly these doubts, I even asked in the wall topic, I'm still studying what I should do, after all, each person has their own particularities, everyone's reality is very different... I really like knowing people's opinions and how they deal with that, not asking some kind of “buy and sell indication”, none of that... just education about this entire bitcoin ecosystem.

The wisest thing to do is to try to learn from more experienced people who have already been through almost everything. Information and knowledge is an extremely valuable assets

If you haven't and want to invest in bitcoin, then you are still a bit early, though the price of bitcoin have risen to a significant height compared to what the price used to be through out the beginning of last year till the end, and even at the beginning of this year, but there is still room for much more growth, we are not in the bull run yet, and when we finally hit or enter the bull run, rest assured that we will see bitcoin reach and even go above $100,000, if you can buy up to 1 bitcoin right now, you have a potential $40,000 profit or even more, when it hit 100,000 which it sure will.

Halving and Bull run aren’t always connected, or I’d say wouldn’t always be connected. Yes, the halving can bring about a bull run but it isn’t always guaranteed. It could happen that a circumstance will happen and hinder it, but since the halving is already programmed, it will happen any way. For this halving, apparently we’re seeing the bull run, but next time, invest with caution.

Regarding altcoins, you can play with it, just make sure you’re dealing with the top and reputable ones.

I cannot say it’s early nor late but if you want to invest now, you are just right on time. Bitcoin halving and bull run are still few months away so you still have a lot of time to invest and back up with DCA. Don’t wait for bitcoin price to drop down or show some price decline because even us don’t have no idea when it will happen. Just buy and hold on your spare money. While bitcoin investment is highly profitable, but we should learn to invest with caution. As long as it’s market remains unpredictable, then no one can tell what the future holds for bitcoin.

It probably depends on the size of your stash.. but still selling half of your stash at one price point like that seems pretty dumb.  Seems like you have little to no confidence in BTC or otherwise you are just a gambler type without proper tools (and without a proper assessment of the value of BTC).

Let's say that you have 2 BTC.. so that is currently $122k of value.. and you are anxious to sell some of it (half at $100k-ish)

It seems to me that we have no way of knowing if the BTC price will come back down once it gets into the 6 digits, but if you are anxious about selling decent amounts of your BTC and you want to be somewhat aggressive about that, I would suggest a more modest and incremental sales amount that would preserve the value of your BTC in case it goes up more...

So instead of selling 50% at $100k  You might consider starting to sell 15% at $90k and then selling  15% every time that the price increases by 20% (or maybe 25%).. Such a plan (that I believe is a bit too aggressive on the sales side) would look something like this:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/02/29/fw0A8.png

In this kind of a plan, it would still take you until $186k to sell half of your BTC, but your BTC would be increasing in value during that time (and the hypothetical chart presumes a cost of $40k, so after the first two sales you had gotten back your principle) .. and if the BTC price were to get up to $186k, you would have had ended up raking off $140k rather than only $100k and you would still have half of your original BTC stash that would be worth right around $194k (not that great, but still better than selling half at $100k).

Personally, I think that selling BTC in more incrementalist ways is better, and you can plug in your own numbers through fillippone's Google spreadsheet that is linked in this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921).


Edit: Another personal choice that I make in my own BTC portfolio management is of a long term investor and not a trader, so it is to ONLY sell no more than 10% for every doubling of price, and part of my presumption is that the person who is selling has reached a decently large BTC holding so there is no goal to buy back the BTC.. yet I understand in this case there are intentions to buy back.. yet I suppose that the BTC price would still have to drop enough to hit the buy back targets.   . so then in a scenario of accumulating a decently sized stash would then be to figure out when to perform the first sale (raking of profits) and then what increments to rake profits after that.. so the first rake might be doubling or tripling or maybe even higher. .and then each increment could be less than a doubling, but even with increments of 50% profits, then maybe the sell amount should stick to being no more than 5%.. or if the increments were 25% then the sell amounts might be no more than 2.5%.

This pattern of selling is good cause it doesn't have much effect on the size or amounts of bitcoin you already have and it's built to only take profits when there is a doubling or tripling of bitcoin price that way I'll only be selling off 10% of my profits and I'll still have enough value of bitcoin untouched and still on hold.

But I think like you said it's not really necessary for newbie investors like me to be thinking in terms of withdrawal cause we should be in our accumulation stage where we are trying to build up our bitcoin stash and thinking in such terms may begin to look like a gamble cause we are not well prepared for price drops and our stash is not big enough to withstand big price drops, so it would be better that early investors here forget about withdrawal and focus more on trying to build their bitcoin stash for up to 4 years.

I be in it touching least possible. Grids set.

"One day I will send a Mister Killmeister out there with nothing but a wrench".

Selling up to 10% or even 25% for every doubling is not as bad as the example that I had given in the chart, which is selling 15% for every 20% rise.. because in the chart, the amount of sales pretty much sells the vast majority of profits, so there is less benefits from bitcoin's compounding effects.. but that's o.k. people can choose there balances in terms of how much of their profits that they want to shave off versus how much they want to keep rolling into their investment.. so I frequently assert that if you are a long term investor in the best asset in the world, then if you figure out the profits, then the most that you should shave off is 50%, and so that way the other 50% can roll over.. and again, people are going to decide for themselves in terms of how much they are mostly holding bitcoin or how anxious they are to get their dollar profits earlier rather than being more modest in their withdrawal efforts.

Another thing is that if the guy is expecting to buy back, then he might be more anxious to sell more in order to be able to buy back more, yet part of the problem with that is that he might not be able to buy back... just think of all of the guys selling in the last year or so, there have not been very many corrections in the last year, and so you would have had been much better off to not be selling and mostly just continuing to buy, especially if you have already assessed that you don't have enough coins.


Well, building up may well take even longer than 4 years.. but at least 4 years is a good start so that you are not causing yourself too much impatience.. so if you are investing 10% per year, it is going to take you 10 years to reach 1 year's salary invested... so if you are able to be more aggressive than that, then you can cut your timeline down, but you cannot necessarily rush how aggressive that you are able to be.. and maybe you can get up to 25% to 30% of your salary, but are you going to feel stressed about that?  You gotta figure out a balance that might be aggressively investing but not causing you too much stress that might trigger you to not be able to keep everything balanced, including hobbies and perhaps even self-development, if you are a younger person still building your career skills.


Yes.. $5 wrench attacks are part of anyone's concerns if there might be too much disclosure and also if we might not be presenting matters in terms of hypotheticals.  We can use round numbers to present matters, but sometimes we might need to make the numbers larger or smaller in order to attempt to address various kinds of hypothetical persons.

Do you have any suggestions in regards to how to talk about these kinds of matters.. in order to present possible ways of showing examples?

Or are you suggesting that we should not say anything?

I agree with you on this, thou is the responsibility of every investor to decide what ever he want to do with his investment, as for me I think is best having a more financial plans as regards to improving your emergency, reserve and float funds allocation which will gives you more confidence for hodling more longer with hope that Bitcoin still have a long way to go.it is best you have your personal needs sufficiently covered up.

Yes of course it is the responsibility of every investor to decide what they will do with their investments at the end of its term I guess the more reason for investment is actually for the call of emergency and  when you have a source of allocations and steady flow of profit from your investment it will call for any alarm so making investments with your bitcoin has becoming one of the decisions anyone can make just like me as a newbie i have an investment in bitcoin which is already making a huge appreciation already and i dare not to regret while i made such investment because bitcoin is what i actually do not know.much about but I took a drastic decision without looking back to make my investments in bitcoin but today I am one of that happiest people who are seeing their investments growing

Yes, each person's decisions and choices are different. Bitcoin is safe and offers significant returns but once the bull season arrives, many altcoins will offer better returns than bitcoin. Yesterday bitcoin hit $64k and today it is still trading above $62k, which is a big win for those who persisted in DCA bitcoin every week from $15k to date. But if you look at shitcoins like pepe, Fet, WLD... they have brought x2-x5 profits in just the last 2 months. That's why I say investing in altcoins during bear season is a bad idea but during bull season is when altcoin price increases are at their craziest. But everyone's investment preferences are different and we should respect each other's decisions.

Thats a great plan. But to be honest if we currently see the growth rate of Bitcoins, then it is assumed that the coin will go above 100k usd. So if you want to earn some extra profits, then don’t the sell the half amount also. Bitcoins are very rare now a days. Hence it will be ideal to hold it. Bull run has just started and it has promised exciting returns. Hence if possible buy now and hold for few more weeks. Then sell all of the stacked coins once, when Bitcoins cross the 100k usd range.

The main reason i will not buy this idea is because as an investor i believe we should focus on the amount of bitcoin we have not the equivalent to dollars. Am more concerned about the fraction of bitcoin if i have since i have not been able to acquire a whole of it. For instance, the price of bitcoin increases to 100k for a whole bitcoin if i am to sell 10% i won't be having a complete bitcoin anymore some fractions would be out from the 1 btc i have. So, i can't stand the chance to lose any fraction of my bitcoin because i want more and more that is why i am still accumulating.

Long term holders do not trade, and trading is the only possible way you could increase or decrease your amount of bitcoin holdings. Like buy when it gets low and selling when it gets high. Your bitcoin amount will increase as well as the value. But trading is not in my dictionary when investing in bitcoin same to other investors too. That means if you are holding for decades losing any fraction of your bitcoin because you sell will be a bad idea. The plan is to accumulate more and not to sell not even the least fraction of it.

That is the main reason i am not selling any part of my bitcoin even if there is an increase of 100% as long as i have not achieved my long-term goals. Anyone may call it fear i dont know what you may call it but ill rather take the fear of not losing any fraction.

If you are new to both investing and to bitcoin, then it could take 10-20 years to build up your investment portfolio, so the mere fact that your short-term investment is going up likely does not mean much of anything... unless you might have lump sum invested and taken value from other investments that you have - presuming that you have an investment portfolio. 

If you want to be an investor with a long term plan, then don't let short term BTC price moves distract you.


That's why many of us tend to say fuck shitcoins - especially when we are in a bitcoin thread.  No respect is needed for shitcoins, and there are plenty of threads in which you can talk about your various shitcoins without pumping them in bitcoin threads.


I agree that it is a good idea to continue to accumulate bitcoin until you reach a point that you feel that you either have enough or that you have too much, which would then justify selling some of it.

In regards to your concerns about valuing bitcoin in dollars, of course, bitcoin has not taken over the world, so we still live in a world in which our expenses are likely denominated in dollars (or in our local currency) so we have to continue to account for those kinds of matters, even if we are still heavily into increasing the quantity of BTC that we hold.

Your discussion of fractions of a coin is nonsensical, because who gives any shits about whole coins, especially if you are still a long way from even owning a whole coin.  By definition you are likely building up to a whole coin through fractions of a coin at a time, and maybe it is better to start to think in terms of satoshis rather than in whole bitcoin. .. and that is true for a lot of us.  Even if there might be some forum members with whole coins, they likely are not moving around whole coins at a time, so frequently when it comes to managing coins, we are going to be dealing with fractions of a coin or satoshis, and even if we might want to have goals in which we accumulate and continue to hold more than a whole bitcoin, we can still accummulate extra satoshis.

Let's say for example, that a forum member spent 1- 2 years accumulating bitcoin (or satoshis), and after 5 years, he accumulated 1.38956292 BTC, but he has a goal to get up to 2 BTC, and so he spends another 6-7 years to accumulating more coins and he gets up to 2 BTC.. or maybe instead, he has had some fortune along the way and he accumulates some extra BTC, and so he ends up with 2.73418854 BTC.. so he has extra BTC in terms of his goals, but at the same time, we have no idea about the guy who spent 11-12 years and he had accumulated  2.73418854 BTC.. we have to think in terms of dollars too.. where is he at in terms of his investment.  What are his options.  At some point he might start to believe that he has enough BTC and he might start to shave off some of his extra BTC, and yeah, he will more likely shave it off in terms of satoshis rather than selling a bunch of it at once, but we still likely need to know a bit more about the guy and even what is the status of bitcoin in terms of either its dollar price or its price in terms of something, such as goods and services, in order to hypothesize about how many BTC is enough for the guy, and how many might be more than enough.. and then what the guy might start to consider doing in terms of potentially transitioning away from BTC accumulation and maybe into maintenance and maybe later into liquidation of his BTC stash... and it could be possible that the guy can figure out a system in which he is largely either not spending any of his BTC or he is spending only small amounts of his BTC from time to time.

Correct mate, most greedy wanted to seek for ATH but after that don't know when to stop waiting.
this is why they turn into loser than winner.

the moment you feel leaving better to do it directly than waiting for bigger profit and may gone sooner.

also correct ,  each cycle is surely different from other one so decide for the good.

instead of DCAing why not just sell and wait for the time dropping.[/list][/list]

The Bull Run market session is the interesting part most people that have not had about Bitcoin with approved of profitable investment system for a long time holding to been announced in price increase impact and also old investors buying house and new car's from the long term holding return profits, we attract new investors into the Bitcoin investment business, which is every Bitcoin investors have to set target to sell during Bull Run and have a reserve to buy during the Bear market, that is how Bitcoin normally rotate in every four years of Bitcoin halving occur. But not that previous Bear market of Bitcoin to prepare next Bear market has to be multiply by 2 times to buy back in bear market. Therefore, Bitcoin Bull market  has to set a goal point to sell.

In every cycle then this is where the community or investors really be that putting their eye with on which this bull run event on which we do know that there would really be people who would really be ending up
having those enourmous profits or even make themselves rich and this is their primary target on why they are really that longing or really that excited with the bull market, but of course everything would really be that needed up with that sufficient action because if you dont place yourself into the bottom then making enormous profits is something that cant be possible.

Plans? Always set your entry as low as possible on which on the time that the market would really be having its movement then you would really be
able to take advantage with those and will really be ending up with having those profits but of course it would be depending on what project or coins you are holding.

People believe that TradFi participation in the market this bull run will make it completely different than past bull runs. "This time will be different" is a very expensive saying in any market.

Will we actually have a different bull run this time?

Time will tell but now, let's check Weekly Percent Supply in Profit, from Crypto Quant.

You are free to interpret the chart but first, let's see this


My opinion is, retail investors and Bitcoin whales were given some months to action ahead of TradFi companies behind Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Price rose a lot some months before the approvals from SEC and if this conspiracy theory is true, it makes sense that even TradFi whales still believe in history, nothing different this bull run in their thinking.


Bitcoin enters price discovery (https://pomp.substack.com/p/bitcoin-enters-price-discovery-new)

Totally agree! Investing in altcoins with about 20%-30% of your capital during a bull run is actually a smart move, and it’s pretty much my go-to strategy. We need to catch those growth waves while the market's in high gear.

In the exact sense, a crypto trader should have a price at which they are going to sell their bitcoin holdings. If it is at $100k, they should hodl your bitcoin to it get to that price.

The mistake some traders always make is to have a way beyond the price tag of bitcoin, thinking that bitcoin will reach $500k in this bull run. Whereby the last bull run wasn't close to their speculated price target of $500k, rather it was $69k, only close to $100k. However given an ATH of bitcoin in this bull run, the price of bitcoin is supposed to fall within the range of $100k-$150k[/list]

Your situation is so like mine so I feel it would be interesting to discuss with you about the coming bull run. I am also new to the crypto space and it is going to be my first bull run. Well in recent times Bitcoin has surpassed its previous all-time high so did you book some profit there? I have booked some ratio of profit out of Bitcoin and all booking was with the intention of buying back well if we look at the historical chart Bitcoin always have been taking a correction just before a big bull run and I am expecting it to happen after the Halving event so I would buy back there if the market will allow me to do so.

Are you doing the same just like me or your plan is kinda different from mine? share I would love to know about yours, well on the other hand I have also accumulated some altcoins in my portfolio i am holding them until the Bull reason ends for Bitcoin after that we will see big rallies in the altcoins so we can call it altcoin season. Well, I am just holding my altcoins as well at the current time. What are you doing with yours? Must share your plan I would love to know about yours.

Sounds retarded.

We are in a bitcoin thread.

Fuck shitcoins, and get on topic.


It is dumb to trade bitcoin.

Bitcoin is amongst the best of investments if NOT the best of investments in the seeming early stages of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind, and you want to try to trade it?


You are planning to sell all your coins between $100k and $150k?  Good luck with that.  Likely, you are going to need it.

It's good to feel happy and excited that your investment is growing in value(bitcoin), but you be well aware that bitcoin has cycles of both bull and bear, price increase and decrease and this cycles can change instantly or be triggerd by anything, so what you should be more excited about now is accumulating more bitcoin to your stash so that you can be well prepared for ups, and also you should focus more on building yourself in terms of cash, emergency funds, floats and reserves that you would be your backbone as an investor.

The reason why you must have an emergency fund is so you don't sell too early or earlier than you plan too to solve or fix a pressing problem and your emergency should be up to 3 months or 6 months in size arccording to your invested value in bitcoin.

Reserves can be seen as our backup funds for taking advantage of opportunities in the market like dips or front running in a kind of way.