Don't try to find All time high, you can not predict it correctly and you will only know ATH of a cycle after you are already in a bear market.
That's a good recommendation
in general, not just for newbies. I'd also add: Don't try to find the
all time bear run low. As it appears to this date, it was $16k on December 2022, after the FTX news. Not that it matters currently, we're in the middle of a bear and a bull.
In general it is good advice, what happens is that if you have experience and knowledge on the subject, in addition to making DCA, you can do DCA partial sales at certain times. For example when the price clearly beats the previous ATH, say when it is at $75K, then when it hits $105K (I foresee huge resistance at $100K) and then put in every $25K after that figure. JJG has fairly detailed posts on this.
With knowledge you can do variants of DCA by taking advantage to buy more in bear markets and do partial sells in bull markets.
Frequently, I try to make it clear that I am not an advocate for selling of BTC for anyone who still considers themselves in their accumulation phase of bitcoin, so even though I talk quite a bit about various selling techniques, most of my techniques presume a status of over accumulation. .whether it is in
my investment ideas thread or in
my sustainable withdrawal thread.
Of course, everyone is responsible for his own techniques, and surely it becomes problematic for guys who might sell and expect to buy back at lower prices, so most of my techniques that include BTC selling involve presumptions that you will never be able to buy back... so if you cannot overcome that presumption and to be willing to live with not being able to buy back the coins that you sell, then you are likely not ready for selling any of them. .and just keep buying until you get to such a level and you are able to work out some kind of a BTC selling technique that makes sense for you and your situation.
Another important point from my perspective, is that I employ incrementalism, so even if I might start selling BTC, I am never selling large amounts, and if you have over accumulated you could sell up to 10% every time the price doubles, but you might not start any selling until you are at least in profits 100% or more.... unless you are way over accumulated, then you would have more flexibility, but still I tend to stick to formulas in which I would never run out of BTC, even if continuing to sell at various points on the way up.. and I also am not trying to predict the price, so the price comes to points that I have already chosen, whether it is selling or attempting to buy back and if the price does not go to those points then I end up just waiting it out..
I don't have any bitcoin holdings, so I'm ready for the bull market. I have been trying to accumulate little by little, but I wasn't able to do it. At some point, I was in a situation to spend, and I completely used it. Soon after the previous halving, I decided to hold and accumulate until the 2024 halving, but the financial requirements during the same period as the earnings weren't that good due to COVID. Making more sources of income will help us save more and hold it for the long term.
Another approach is to invest a smaller amount.
So if you had been investing $100 per week, then maybe you should just invest $10 per week in order that you can sustain your investing at a level in which you are not going to be tempted to dip into the investment...
But yeah, you may well have a personality problem and lack of discipline.. so you have to teach yourself that if your investing for the long term, such as 4-10 years or longer, then you should not be fucking around with it.
So pick an amount that you can stick with and maybe you have to just start out with $10 per week and maybe you can increase it at various points down the road, and then maybe 10 years after you start then you can consider if you might want to start to sell some of it... but it might not even be necessary to consider selling at all if you are able to figure out a way to buy without being tempted to sell.
It can take years and years to really build up an investment portfolio, and even those people who invest up to 10% of their salary will take 10 years to get to 1 years worth of salary invested.. so if you are not even investing 10% it is going to take you a long time, and probably people have to try to work up to being able to invest 10% or more, especially if they ever want to get to fuck you status, which tends to be in the ballpark of 20-30 years worth of salary invested/saved, and many times there will be a reliance upon appreciation of your investment rather than strict saving/investing, even though people who really aggressively invest, like in the ballpark of 30% to 50% of their salary, they will be able to make progress a lot faster than those who are way more whimpy in their investing/savings,
and surely you have to have your shit together if you are investing 30% to 50% of your salary, so most people should shoot to sustain something like 10% prior to adjusting upwards and making sure that they have an emergency fund, reserves and a float, which it can take a while to build up those things too.. you cannot be aggressive with your investment if you are not organized, otherwise you are either gambling and/or you are going to be weak-handed if you are not sufficiently organized in your own personal financial management.
I would say don’t make any plans. We have known what Bitcoins are capable of. Hence the ideal plan will be to just relax and invest directly. Don’t make any strategies or anything. Just follow the basics and invest into the coins directly. In this bull market it is estimated that Bitcoins will go 3 times the price. So accumulate as many Bitcoins as you can and invest patiently.
You are not completely wrong in your focusing on BTC accumulation; however, your suggestion not to plan is a kind of failure.
One of the ways to deal with extremely high volatility is to have a plan, whether it is to sell some BTC on the way up or to just continue to accumulate or to just change your accumulation plan... those are all kinds of plans, so your actual plan to just continue to accumulate is a kind of plan that does not involve selling in this particular cycle.. and there is no problem with that.. especially since it can take 30-40 years in traditional markets to reach something like fuck you status, and if you are able to invest into bitcoin in a way that you might be able to cut that down in half and maybe it ONLY ends up taking you 15-20 years to get to fuck you status, and that could be a goal..
keep accumulating BTC until you reach fuck you status.. and don't lose your coins.. those are all plans... yet they are plans that involve not selling any of your BTC until you reach a certain higher level of BTC accumulation and then you can plan at that point whether you want to create any other kind of a plan that might not be ONLY about BTC accumulation because at some point you might determine that you have accumulated enough BTC, and even more than enough BTC in terms of your own personal circumstances.
As soon as I see such forecasts, I want to sell my portfolio for trading.
https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-price-prediction-2024"In aggregating the varied predictions from several pundits and renowned industry experts, we observe a central theme: the average Bitcoin price prediction for 2024 hovers around $87,000. This figure, culled from a Finder survey of 31 FinTech experts, serves as a significant indicator of the market's expectations and sentiment regarding Bitcoin's value post-halving."
Yeah.. wisdom of the crowds. Have fun staying poor.
Sometimes it is better not to follow the wisdom of the crowds unless you want to have mediocre results.. .especially when it comes to something like bitcoin.
One of the advantages of bitcoin and any of us who have been studying the space for a while is that we have asymmetric information.. in other words superior information, and so it seems to take a while for public knowledge to catch up and part of the reason that some of the long term BTC holders have profited so greatly, even if they did not know any specifics about BTC's price direction, they were still directionally right by choosing to accumulate bitcoin and to error on the side of accumulation and holding rather than selling.
End of November 2013: $900. Next time with $900: end of January 2017. Time in between: 3 years, 2 months.
Mid-December 2017: $19k. Next time with $19k: start of December 2020. Time in between: nearly 3 years.
Yeah, there's a difference, but I'd say it's a very small one. Then, if we count November 2021 with $67k as the ATH, the next time the price reaches that level should be November 2024 or somewhere around that time, but the recovery of the market in general can, of course, start much earlier.
So far, to me, the differences aren't that big, but we'll see if this 3-year (give or take a couple of months) cycle thing checks out this time.
Interesting that LadyofCrypto1 calculates her cycles differently, but her result is also November 2024, just like in my case.
It is dangerous to lock yourself into such strictness in your thinking, but there should be no problems trying to anticipate some price waves as long as you don't try to trade on that information and end up selling too much too soon..
