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Let's have a thread to discuss gambling on the 2024 United States Presidential election!
Remember: This is a thread about gambling, we go by the official results. For disputing past events you can go on the politics board (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=34.0).

Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race.
https://i.ibb.co/Mny6WBZ/download-1.png

It's also a first for this year's race for how old both candidates are. Interestingly, bookmakers have added several other picks to the table other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The chances of either dying prior to the race aren't that unlikely it seems. Also in the case of Donald Trump, several cases are proceeding in the courts, which some are speculating might hinder his bid to the presidency.

https://i.ibb.co/9vDGqgc/image.png
Image source via Stake (https://stake.com/sports/outright/politics-entertainment/politics/us-presidential-election-2020/41683725-us-presidential-election-2020)

Let's discuss the likelihood of each candidate winning the election, events, as well as which platforms offer this market for crypto-enabled bets.

Let me make it simple for you:

Trump loses again, and Biden wins  :D

Please, save your wits everyone. Sit back and relax, and nick some easy money off the bookies.

[Everyone else is a joke candidate and I don't understand why Stake doesn't just give them all 100:1 odds.]

I really don't think it's gonna be that simple. I'm not a fan of either to be honest but it seems that many people in the left hold a lot of resentment towards Biden because of his stance on what's happening to the Palestinian people. I see the left more fragmented than in previous elections. Of course it's worth considering also that the U.S. voting system heavily favors the two major parties no matter who their candidate is.

But in the meantime I see republicans unapologetically supporting Trump. There are no asterisks for them like there are for democrats voting for Biden right now. No candidate came even close to beating Trump in the primaries in spite of him having lost the previous election and in spite of his many mishaps. His opponents brought up many valid points against him but people simply didn't care.

Seeing Michelle Obama further up than valid third party candidates that will be on most ballots this year makes me wonder too, who thought of putting these names up there?
Surely the odds are affected by betting amounts also but the name selection is more or less manual and many of these make zero sense.

I am surprised that Donald Trump odd is lower than Joe Biden odd. Joe Biden is the present US president. I am not good in this type of betting and I will not just bet it. If I should take someone to win, Joe Biden. If I should wish someone to win, I will take Donald Trump. But I am not going for anyone than to stick with my football and casino games.

There’s a lot of issue and some of it is critical during Biden admin. I think they are equal wash up candidate with Trump based on how I see social media post. Trump supporters gain a lot of momentum this election due to this failure of current administration. However I’m not sure how accurate social media post nowadays.  :D


Simply for better attractiveness on odds. Some bettor is just looking on odds number tossing few cents or dollars just in case the candidate miraculously win the election. Odds increase same level of the jokiness of the candidate.

I'm also in shock when I see some other candidates running for President this year because their numbers are way too much, isn't it obvious that they are just gonna be there to act as pawns to subside the other votes I think most of those candidates will affect the votes of Biden because they used to support him and they are now making their own journey to run for President as well and monopolize their supporters to support them instead of Biden and same for the Trump supporters in the past as well, this might not be an easy win for Biden either. anyway, whoever gonna wins, I hope they stop any war and maybe the world will be at peace again.

Do not believe on social media. I can remember the the last election in my country, the person that people were talking about on the social media did not even became the second but the the third. What I believe in is during voting after seeing some results. I just know that election is going to be very tough and who will be the winner between Trump and Biden is not yet known.

Yup it's a very tough choice for many American lefties. Lots of people will be seeking to punish Biden but the other "realistic" choice leaves no space for arguing that they're both bad on the matter of making peace. Trump recently took an extremely hardline stance against Palestine  (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/6/trumps-talk-on-gaza-highlights-stark-choice-for-voters-in-us-election)saying he'll support Netanyahu until "total victory". So many people are looking at alternatives like Jill Stein of the Green party or Claudia de la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation.

Others are looking at independent candidates or opposing Biden through primaries but that probably has even fewer chances for a victory due to even more restricted ballot access for independents. I'm a bit surprised Claudia isn't put there by the bookmakers though. I could think of a bonkers scenario where Biden dies and his replacement is worst to an extent that third parties are starting to be considered viable on the left. Especially considering how close Bernie came to winning the presidential Bid, that's certainly more realistic that a Michelle Obama presidency with her being third on the odds...

US election is not like those that happens in Africa that the incumbent president must be the winner of the election. US election is based on voting for the qualified candidate that can do the job best. Biden administration has been supporting wars a lot, which has begin to make his supporters decamping from him, to Trump.

Trump was the former president but he lost to Boden, and that is why I think that he can come back to the white house again if they comparison between both candidates are done properly based on how they pilot the affairs of the country when they were on seat. I will prefer Trump.

That would probably mean that Trump will win in the election. Last time Trump won was when he was a heavy underdog, no one expected him to win but he won anymore. Loss on his 2nd term, and now trying to go back to presidency.

This was the last election's betting odds, and Biden was heavily favored.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/10/31/2020-presidential-election-odds--senate-race-predictions-70-of-money-bet-backs-trump-over-biden/?sh=2fe6010bbd5b

I'm not a fan of these two but based on my analysis, this odds now is favoriing Trump to win, so I might probably bet on him.

When Biden was not yet a president, what makes him a qualified candidate? Okay let us say he did not do as expected, which means people do not know the qualified candidate but vote for people they prefer. US is just a good country and nothing more than that.

Not that Biden administration as been supporting war but US likes to support war that they know they should support. US supported some wars during Trump's time.

So many people still couldn't accept the fact that Trump is winning in most polls. And it's not surprising as people want to be free from Biden's administration. Looking at what Biden has done to the country, the dismay is just not enough to describe how they feel. Seems logical for the people who want to have a better life and if there is no better option, I guess they are going for Trump. 

It's not about age anymore. It's about who has better cognition and consciousness.
Trump 1.70 is going to turn 1.25 in the coming months, I think it's best to just cast your bet already before that happens.

Easy win for Trump.

They had enough of the demented mumbling fool's crap imo. Actually I was pretty surprised when Trump lost the last elections but I blame the mainstream media for that one. I guess they brainwashed the masses. As I see it, nobody watches C-NN (cunt news network) and other mainstream media outlets anymore. When I watch their clips on youtube the comment section is full of people making fun of fake news network.

Not sure if it's going to be easy but I kinda understand the odds being better for Trump on bookies.
For one, Biden tried to deliver on so called normalcy but the only ones benefiting from his policies were mega corporations. There's record low unemployment supposedly but at the same time there's also record high poverty, record low purchasing power, sustained high inflation etc. So much for "Bidenomics" while the working man suffers.

Would things have been much different under a Trump presidency? I think probably not, but I also understand that many Americans might be itching to find out.

Wait a minute, the Simpsons cartoon suggested that Trump will be the winner of the 2024 elections and believe me those cartoons those cartoons do not lie and they have a lot of untold true stories which happened in reality in the future. I do not know how they know the future but the mystery of those cartoons is still a myth for me.

Taking this into consideration, i would bet in the favor of Trump as i have evidence in the form of  Simpsons cartoon  ;)

The Simpsons 'Predicted' Donald Trump 2024 Back in 2015 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY6-dZhtbSM)

100 to 1 is a gift.   I'd want 500 to 1 in some cases but it aint happening so long as someone thinks its a possible outcome why sell it cheaper then need be.  Obama (Ms.) is a gift to the bookies at those odds thats awesome when I've never heard a shred of possible reasons why it should be true as a proposal and never an outcome.  


The reason to contest the mainstream bet of  Trump is he can be disqualified still in some way.  I guess but dont think he could be imprisoned or some other court ruling that would restrict his running.  

On the Biden bet I agree thats the real favorite however both candidates are old and could be forced to withdraw.   I only accept very bad health as preventing a candidate or actual death, the precedent being FDR who despite bad health won then died early in the term so voters will support Biden anyway imo.   People know its not literally one man in a tug of war, he has a team he only has to sit in a chair to do the job at worst case.

So my question is why Kamala Harris  at 23 to 1 if its the 3rd most likely outcome.  Votes for Biden would elect Harris in effect if we go with the bad health scenario.

A bit surprised that Trump has lowest odds now. IIRC, few months ago Biden was main favorite according to bookmakers as he had lowest odds. For me it's crazy Biden and Trump is best options what US can have for president role. I'm just happy that I'm not US citizen and I don't have to pick between these two.

Yeah, having all these joke candidates looks a bit strange, especially when they don't even participate in elections. At least this year we don't have Kany West there, though, a bit surprised that Taylor Swift isn't listed, considering how much attention she is getting.

The only 2 choices will be Biden and trump I don't know why anyone would drop bets on other people.  Third party has been unsuccessful for centuries lol.  Kind of shocked trump has better odds than Joey B.  Can't bet on this one no clue how the outcome will be and have no vested interest in hoping one way or another on this based on a bet.

Looking at the odds, I would say that at 1.70, the sportsbooks are still underestimating Donald Trump. IMO, his odds should be somewhere around 1.30. He has almost won the Republican primaries, and if he stands for the POTUS elections later this year there is a 90% chance that he will win (Biden is trailing far behind in almost all of the polls). Now the only possibility that Trump may not win the election comes from any potential court decision that may disqualify him from running. Any such judgment is extremely unlikely.

I think you are also underestimating Joe Biden. Donald Trump has a lot of skeletons in his cupboard and he has failed to address them. He promised to free the Capitol attackers if he is reelection which means he is still promoting anarchy. Trump has failed to attract new supporters from some Democratic States which means the election might turn out the way it ended four years ago. For me the the sportsbooks are correct in giving the current president higher odds because he is the favorite. He has had some issues including his health and failure to tackle illegal immigrants but he is still better than emperor Trump. Biden will still get support from the minorities because they are getting better treatment from him than the racist Trump. My bet is wholely on Biden.

Don't worry, it still long time because the election will be held in the next few months and it seems like there will always be changes happening for some time until the time is really close to the election.
Trump has really dominant advantage in this election and of course this advantage is also because Biden performance was not very good during his tenure as president and many US people have bad sentiments towards him.
This is why Trump succeeded in winning the Republican primaries and was able to take advantage of the conditions to take over those people who in the previous election were Biden supporters, we will see Trump become president again and of course this is good opportunity.
I think we will also find that the odd given to Trump also reaches @1.30 but this will be very low odd to bet on, everyone should really start taking risks from now on if they have the courage.

But talking about the lawsuit that was previously received by Trump and which could result in decision to disqualify him as presidential candidate will never happen, just imagine how long ago this issue was sued and in fact until now there has been no such decision.
This will be related to division if it is actually carried out and certain parties will always consider this.

Let us say Liverpool is playing with big club but which it has more chance to win. Liverpool that has the higher chance to win will be given a bigger odd. That is how gambling is and we all know that. If you are saying the sportsbooks are correct in giving the current president higher odds because he is the favorite, that is not right. The higher odd is given because Trump has more chance to win the election in their own opinion but which may not become true. As Trump failed in some areas to some people, also Biden failed in some areas to some people.

I am not underestimating Joe Biden. But he is on the defensive, with burning issues such as border conundrum and Hunter Biden scandal having an impact on his support levels. In most of the opinion polls, Biden is trailing by somewhere between 3% to 5% as far as popular vote is concerned. And let's not forget the fact that Trump won the 2016 elections despite losing the battle for popular vote. In case he has a 5% advantage here, then we can expect a landslide. Even states such as Colorado and Virginia may swing to GOP this time.

I honestly do understand Trump and Biden trying to beat each other, but there are places that shows Michelle Obama, who has never shown any interest in politics, never has been a candidate, never been nominated, never even tried to get any nomination for any position ever, to have better odds to win it over Kamala Harris, literally the VP of the nation, and the president if anything happens to Biden. That part has never made sense to me.

I agree that aside from Biden and Trump, there are no candidates anymore, those are the two that will go ahead and win it, and there is really nothing wrong with that, I agree that those two will be fighting it out and one will win, so rest of the candidates makes no sense, but really? Michelle over Kamala? That is silly.

Can't remember which documentary I saw it but the administration would rather have someone else in case Biden suddenly just drops dead. This I guess is the reason why even when it gets worse to such an extent that Biden won't be able to speak anymore due to his dementia, Kamala will still not get her seat. I bet they'd quickly vote for a snap election.

What was said in that documentary was that she wasn't of American descent.
Michelle Obama is not to be questioned she is a real deal after all her husband had contributed greatly to the country.


The 2 states are not his fans but now that Trump will be on the ballot, yes.
That laptop I think had made people rethink who they have previously supported.

It must be because the attention Michelle Obama has received in this presidencial campaign compared to the attention Kamala Harris has. If you pay some attention to the media on the United States, it would not take much time for you to realize Kamala Harris is the kind of politician who is easier to ignore than the average person in Washington. The media give even more attention to Nancy Pelosi, and she is not even the speaker of the house of representatives anymore, you know. The right wing media used to attack her, but she has become to irrelevant that, in the event Biden shows himself to be unable to continue with the campaign, the democrat party would never opt to push Harris into the White House, they would lose.
In that context, Michelle Obama is better recalled as the wife of the President Obama, and has showed to have more charisma when facing the general electorate, that is why she is preferred by bettors over Harris. They know the Democrat party are more likely to favor Obama than her, even though Harris is already into politics and being the second on command after the president.

It would be safe to say Harris is sort like the DeSantis of the Democrat party. You know she exists, but nobody pays much attention to her anyways. A very low profile.

All the attempts to take out Trump from ballots and filing all the law suits but he still remains the strongest candidate to oppose Biden's campaign for another term. He may be guilty to some of the charges but the Americans may just want someone to focus on America first before the wars in Europe and Middle East. Not to mention the continues bickering with China and funding Taiwan.

I don't know the yardstick for given Donald Trump 1.7 odd and Joe Biden 2.55 odd, considering that the later is the sitting president and with the instrumentality of the states at his disposal in a democratic setting. I don't know the chances of Donald Trump at that election when they will unleash the media and the big techs against him like they did the last time. If Trump could be defeated as a sitting president, I wonder how possible it will be for him to win in the midst of the persecution he is facing. I will rather avoid this bet than take risk that is not too clear to me.

I think its going to be the opposite. I think both are complete morons, but at least Trump is interesting. I don't think that people realize that no matter who is made president, they do not hold all the power. Their party gains a little more control and some agendas for the party are pushed, but the person themselves are not making all the laws or whatnot.

I think the USA was in better shape with the republicans in control.

The issue with Kamala Harris is that she got very little spotlight during her vice presidency. I don't know if it's why Democrats chose to do so deliberately or if she was just not interested but the media didn't give her any spotlight. It's been all these years since Obama was president, but his wife is still more popular than the current female vice president, which is crazy.

So I kinda understand the rumors. If democrats lost Biden, then they would have to pick someone widely popular to replace him. The Michelle Obama pick kinda makes sense, although very unrealistic. Sometimes rumors make sense, simply because the alternative would be even more absurd. Can you imagine a world with Kamala Harris as president? Me neither, because it just seems like she was picked as a token black woman vice president and served absolutely no utility through her term.

Number one factor will be the economy, check this graph out for jobs creation:

While this might be some positive spin for Biden the reality is not something not always believed by workers on the ground.  I dont doubt the data is there as indicated in that specific layout,  if only because Biden came in after a pandemic and there has been some revival from that backdrop no doubt.   I personally feel many western economies are suffering and the effects are quite unfair because inflation benefits a few who can make debts work in their favor while being able to renew that debt at rates below inflation hence its a subsidy to their business usually.

Workers who are struggling to match bills with pay unevenly matched to inflation may not find this graph accurate to their own personal situation.  If that is true and enough people feel the economy is bad then Biden being upset in his reelection remains quite possible, its probably the most powerful simple factor there is to deciding success or not.

I'm unsure about this discussion:
Many sites already offer the possibility of betting on a winner, but what is a winner?
Is it the candidate who received the most votes during the elections or is it the one who will actually be sworn in as President of the United States?

Recently, the judges, with a conservative majority, authorized former President Donald Trump to continue running for the Republican Party and will probably also be able to run for president.

If he can actually run for president, I believe he will beat Biden, but I also believe he will be blocked later for the crimes he faces.
In this case, what is the "correct" result of bets made in casinos and gambling sites?

The United States electoral system doesn't elect a president on an outright majority vote. As of gambling markets, I'd bet that gambling sites will close the market as soon TV channels and major news outlets call the winner of the election.

---

On some other presidential news, the independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. says he's considering Aaron Rodgers for his running mate. I'm told those familiar with American football (not me) might find this funny...
https://www.businessinsider.com/robert-kennedy-jr-aaron-rodgers-vice-president-2024-2024-3

Mr. Kennedy is such an interesting candidate and it's uncertain from which major candidate he would draw most voters from. He's had interesting things to say on vaccines and the economy. But also holds quite the divisive stance on Palestine. It's likely that with his "anti-globalist" messaging he draws more right-wing minded voters, or at least some undecided center-left voters. Probably he'd do damage to both Biden and Trump if he was receiving more spotlight though.

I think he's one of the more realistic "third-party" candidates so if I could find a market on which third party candidate would get the most votes my money would certainly be on him.

LOL.. nothing can be more deceptive than this graph. Trump was the one who put economy back on track, but then the COVID pandemic hit the United States and a lot of people lost their jobs. And that is the reason why net job creation is negative for him. Biden took over during the recovery phase and benefitted from that. I would still tell one thing. If Biden was the president of the United States when COVID struck, then the American economy would have been in a horrible state by now.

Right, that is something which I always immediately comes to mind when I see that graph. During the full catastrophe of the COVID-19 Donald Trump was the president of the United States, and the state of the economy because of the quarantine was going to lead to a decrease in the positions available within the job market sonnwr or later. It was outside of the reach of power of the presidency of the country the amount of jobs which were supposed to be created that year.
Regardless of whether who was the president during that period of time, the result would have been the same: a decrease of jobs.
Though, I do not completely agree on the remarks about the economy had it in the hands on the hands of Biden or a democrat administration, I believe the situations would be pretty similar to what we see nowadays.

Actually, Democrats blame Trump on a bad handling on the state of emergency during the pandemic, because how he initially refused to the quarantine measures.

https://i.redd.it/8lgs5v5zo6oc1.jpeg

Something interesting came up. While Haley didn't have a particularly good run in the primaries, it seems as though more of her supporters (who are registered republicans) will be interested to vote for Biden other than Trump.
If we conclude that these supporters would get away from the party line and vote for a democratic candidate over Trump, then if Biden is alive by then (lol) it kinda shows that people might be underestimating his chances to win.

I get that there are many people very passionate about Trump but even among Republican circles he's been very divisive. Quite a few people like Mike Pence too, or any of the other candidates that appeared in the primaries, and we saw that they had quite a few select words for Trump. So it'll be interesting to see if these displeased voters would be enough to sway the vote towards Biden.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/03/05/can-congress-disqualify-trump-what-to-know-after-supreme-court-keeps-him-on-ballot/

Wake up babe, new democrat shenanigans just dropped. So it seems as though democrats might be plotting to vote for a disqualification for Donald Trump for him to not be able to run in the presidential race. It's interesting to see this take place and be discussed as a realistic scenario. However the house of representatives is going to remain a republican majority as it is now throughout the presidential elections so such a vote is unlikely to pass when it would need somewhere around a dozen of republican votes to also pass.

Any Republican going against Trump right now would be dooming his career as well as his party. Trumpers got it their way, and nevertrumpers seem to have no other way other than to sit this one out waiting in silence.
The realistic scenarios where trump is barred from the presidency would require majority votes from both senate and house, which could even then be struck down. Especially after the recent supreme court ruling. So the potential outcomes where we'll see Trump being barred from the presidency have very slim chances at this point.

Lets wait and see if that really happens. Both Trump and Biden are doing efforts to gain some of Haley supporters but Haley always mentioned that she will not support Trump so it could have an outcome on the elections. Still a long way to go and a lot can still happen.

A lot of people are forgetting that Trump has a lot of pending cases in the US. Plus the fact that not a lot of Republicans are still that impressed of him. Even so, the huge guys in the Senate and House of Representatives are still fully supportive of the yellow guy and will do everything to make sure that their pet gets into the scene and run for presidency. I'm not comfortable with Biden taking the second term, much more Trump leading the helm of this nation again, but if I were given the choice to choose between the two, I'd take Biden and hope that Kamala takes the lead should Biden 'gets sick' due to his age.


Ahh, 3 million people is NOT ENOUGH to sway the election. Remember Hillary Clinton running against this guy and winning the popular votes yet losing the electorals? That can still pretty much happen so I'm not really confident about Haley's supporters.

Well, at this level, the way things are happening, they're focusing on it like it's a media problem and this has really kept people guessing about what's going to happen, how they're going to be able to do things later on, so in view Of these things, I think that Trump wants to eliminate him whatever from the presidential race, I see that they are using what they have so that he cannot reach the presidency again, it is clear that this type of thing is a Warning , I don't know. how much force they exert in the Colleges, but when the Colleges cast their vote they are final and there is nothing to do there, the voters in the USA will always have the premise of choosing the candidate who offers them the most things so that they can fulfill them and the country will go in a better direction than the previous one.

I do not think Biden has as much power as Trump, and that is a very good story , because I have seen that most people are for Trump, but they feel an air of shame in saying that they support Trump, these things are the that make us be very critical when reviewing events, because in truth there is no definitive line on which candidate they want to support in the US.

I am not a political expert, but I have gotten the impression those people who chose to vote for Nikki instead Trump are more likely to stay at their homes rather than voting for Joe Biden. In the end, both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were specially tough when they talked about the necessity of defeating Joe Biden this year in the presidential elections. It sounds rather difficult to me some of those voters will abandon the ideas of Defeating Joe Biden and go out to vote for him.
They could also end up voting in favor of some third party candidate instead of the usually Republican/Democrat political duopoly, though, but it is also unlikely.  If there is anything these lastest elections have shown to us, is how we are not supposed to trust on polls and predictions of the results, instead the most healthy thing to do is to wait for the results to come by their own.
Though, since we all are talking about betting on these elections, it is rather difficult not to draw conclusions from news and analysis like that one, one must resist the temptation however, for the sake of one's wager.

Its impossible to count votes like that, the system is electoral college and not purely numbers like that.   This is the giant mess Press got wrong in 2016 in ignoring the complexities of the system and the division of votes in each region.   Its enough votes purely in a theoretical way but it its unlikely to work in any perfect case scenario to alter results just like that.   I would also argue alot of voters just stay away when they dont have their ideal candidate, think of all the people who wanted Bernie Sanders in a unique way quite a few wont find any reason to vote elsewhere just because a party orders them to.

It's true that the electoral system in the United States is such that doesn't mean someone with the absolute majority. Even Trump was elected in 2016 without a majority vote over Hillary Clinton who had more votes, but Donald Trump still won based on the electoral college system.

I think though Trump might have gotten a bit too comfortable because he didn't target the most important constituents after his first win. Especially he didn't do it as much as he should have to win again. Overall probably now though, Biden has disappointed too many people too. He didn't deliver on student loans, he didn't deliver on ending wars, he didn't deliver on better living standards for the working class... Nothing for the working man... Some people might end up voting for Trump out of spite.

Talking about the economic situation under both candidates makes no sense not because it favours one or the other but because it is bad in both of them. We have seen trump not put a stop to covid early on because he knew that his voters didn't want to be locked down and didn't want to wear masks and didn't want to get vaccinated, if he forced people to do that there would be a lot less dead people and yet he would lose and in the end he still lost and he still didn't do anything about it.

This is just the economical part and not the health part because he didn't do anything and that caused a lot of trouble economically for companies. Same goes for Biden in technical term, he didn't lowered the rates and right now nobody wants to grow, and just fine with interest earning.

Really, because the last time I checked. I swear I saw some news about the interest rates not interesting or actually going a little bit down, in the case of the United States at least.
To me, it would make sense the federal reserve under the presidency of Biden started to stabilize the interest rates, because of how inflation has deaccelerated lately. People are getting their money out their saving accounts and out the Treasury bonds, and pushing it all into stocks and other kinds of assets, like gold and cryptocurrency.
We could argue Biden administration has not been the greatest when comes to economics, but it is far from being the worst or even a bad one. In my opinion, the economical metrics do not lie.

When it comes to economics maybe the Biden administration can argue that they averted a recession with their tactics and that indeed holds some merit, but the issue is the big picture here.
Corporations and banks being bailed out comes at the expense of someone, and that someone is the average worker.

Billions in corporate bailouts, billions in war funding abroad and yet not much if anything on promises about healthcare and student loans. That's not to say that Trump would have been better, but in that sense more and more people will feel disenfranchised from voting for Biden again after he failed them on some of his most basic promises. Did anyone forget how the entire Democratic party rallied behind him to oust the grassroots support Bernie was getting? Well these people feel wronged too. And it's going to be hard for Biden to make more promises if he failed to deliver these things in a 4 year term already.

Something interesting to noticed by anyone willing to bet on this election cycle in the United States. Despite of Nikki Haley being out of the presidential race, still she managed to get up to 150k votes for her in the state of Florida.
Now, there are different interpretations of the meaning of hundreds of thousands of people who were willing to vote for someone they knew did not have a chance to win the primaries. The most direct and easiest interpretation is how an voters from Florida (those who voted for Haley), are not longer willing to give another chance to Donald Trump, even though they all are Republican.

If we followed these hints, perhaps indeed Biden have a chance to defeat Trump this year, regardless of the flaws and problems Biden seem to transmit towards the center right and far right leaning public of the country. I am still yet undecided on where to put my money on this one...

Ok there's something very interesting happening here:
https://i.ibb.co/kJBnZVQ/image.png

When put in competition head to head vs Trump, Biden is shown to have a lead in polls.
However, when put in polls as Biden vs. Trump. vs. R. F. Kennedy Jr., Trump has a notable lead against Biden!

Some republican mega donors are kinda unhinged in their support for R. F. Kennedy, but this is also making the race more interesting.
First of all, will Biden manage to counter the notions many people are developing right now to consider supporting Kennedy? He has months to prepare a strategy, but I take it things are gonna be tough for the Biden team.

Look for instance at how much the funding has been for an independent candidate. Even Kennedy himself thought the super-bowl ad for his campaign ran by a super PAC might have been a bit too much...
https://i.ibb.co/Rh7Pn7m/image.png

However now, thanks to the funding, there's an "army" of canvassers running around America and the Kennedy campaign's projection is that they will have ballot spots in 50 states! So the polls do actually make sense! Biden is very much threatened and this is not a drill.

Images via this vid (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLtL6afShA0)

Yeah!!!

Even though an independent candidate has little chance of winning the election, he will certainly still greatly influence the outcome of this election... just look at the past and we will see that in the political history of the USA, there have already been some episodes where this happened.

The most recent one I remember was in 1992, when Ross Perot played a similar role in Bill Clinton's victory over George Bush. The third-way candidate didn't win a single delegate, but he got almost 19% of the votes, most of which were votes that would go to Bush.

Likewise, polls currently indicate that when Kennedy entered the race, Trump's lead rose to 5 points over Biden and the Republican leads in all 7 of the most disputed states. In other words, with Kennedy in play, Trump's chances of victory increase significantly.

Yup, it's certain at this point that Kennedy himself and the PACs supporting him alike are 100% counting on taking votes away from Democrats.
It's a very odd subject though because Kenndy's agenda sounds a lot like a republican's play book being read outloud. The anti-vaccine narrative, calling people in Washington corrupt, rampant Zionism... So it's not like this sounds much of a valid alternative to the current options. However Republicans seem much more organized in their Vote so surely those paying for the huge ads for Kennedy must have done their research.

This is also showcased by the fact that Biden keeps getting heckled so much at his events, they've now started to outright deny entry to Muslim women wearing Head coverings in fear they might speak aloud in front of his speech in support of Palestine.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/31/biden-campaign-event-islamophobia-palestine-protest

Crazy for a party that is supposedly against racism.  ???

Until not long ago, I would have assumed Kennedy would be a spoiler, but for the Trump campaign instead of the Biden campaign. Because many of the ideas Kennedy has align very well with the ideas of many people within the MAGA spectrum have: vaccination skepticism, passive racism (he literally told black people in a rally/event that racism against them would never end and that ks something they need to keep in mind). He even said one that the COVID was less aggressive when infecting Jewish and Black people and more dangerous when it infected white people. That is the kind of stuff you would only expect a MAGA-favourable candidate to say out loud.
Though, I get he was at first trying to pocket the democrat party nomination and then he saw the advantages of going third party/independent. This is a typical move some politicians do in critical presidential elections when it is all expected to be very close race between two candidates. He is aware he does not stand a chance against the establishment, but he knows the democrat party or the Republican party are so desperate for some points of advantage against each other, so he could profit off it and sell his candidacy to the highest bidder.

When a politician like him is not in the game for power, he is in the game for money.
He won't get power, but still can get money, that is his plan.

Kennedy and Biden align very well apparently, he only disagrees on the anti vax stance and otherwise is definitely a democrat in policy.   I was surprised by that too because I thought he was the right wing choice with the Democrat party if that makes any sense but his actual political record reflects not a great break from Biden policies is the review I read hence it just comes down to speeches and talks.   Personal preference, sometimes people run as candidates to drum up support and gain a position within the administration, theres all levels of politics besides just being elected to the top job.

I understand why some prefer Kennedy but I dont take that as a serious option to consider, it might have been with more support but theres no appearance of that at this point.

I think I’m not supposed to get into this since I’m not a citizen over there but the truth is, this has been one of the political gambling that I’m really interested in and I’ve been wondering the possibility of a siting president  been dethroned easily except his tired of the office which I’m sure Biden isn’t tired and still wants to retain his position.

I’m really looking forward to seeing the outcome of the next election as to who wins the medal but I’m pretty sure in my country,  it is very difficult for a sitting president to be overthrown by an opposition party except in some rare cases.

Don't feel coy over the fact you are not a citizen of the United States and still you feel like taking part and betting in this incoming presidential election there. Actually, I would dare to say an important percentage of the betting volume of these political markets are not even from people who live there.  ;)
Though, you need to be aware before betting on American polítics you need to have a minimum level of information and ideas of the current political weather there, otherwise your bets wont be as informed as you think. I would recommend you to seek for some YouTube channels held by political commentators who happen not to be extremely biased to one side or the other.

By the way, we are talking about the USA, one of the countries which are considered to be the beacon of democracy and justice (depending whom you ask), obviously we cannot compare our republics to USA in this historical context, specially if there are undemocratic regimes ruling out society.

Regardless of what you decide, feel free to share your bets with us here. 😆😄

I like your line of thoughts and I agree with you. In primary elections all over the world, there is always internal politicking that leaves seemingly hatred among party members but such hatred is not usually enough to make party faithful jump ship. What I mean is that the hatred for a fellow party man over primary elections is not usually strong enough to make someone go for candidates of another party. So, if Joe Biden or anyone is banking on the idea that supporters of Nikky will rather vote for Joe Biden than Trump, they will be frustrated at how things will turn after the primaries. When the main campaign starts after the primaries, you will see what makes them Republican and why they will ensure that Republican wins. I am not saying that Trump will win, I am just giving my understanding of how politics works.

If we look at the betting odds, Trump is very favored but I am not an American and may not know the development of the political atmosphere there, but some people who know about the political situation there say my online friend gave me advice to bet on Trump, but I said no I'm sure of that because whatever is the favorite doesn't necessarily mean winning and being superior, so I prefer not to bet on something that I don't know for sure how the political situation will develop there, if reading more news will drain my time only for odds below 2.00x.

I would probably rather gamble on sports betting than bet on this presidential election, because the odds are also not great, although I expect Trump to win and become America's next president, I would rather see him become president than Biden, who I think is already too old to lead America as president and besides, it's time for him to focus on enjoying his old age rather than being on the political stage again, I'm waiting for the results to see who wins and not get involved in bets like this.  ;)

It is not so much about hatred between people of the same party, but rather the sentiment many within the Republican party about how Trump has made politics to decay into topics which do not seems to be relevant anymore as others, but that depends whom you ask in the end of the day.
I have lately seen some democrat strategists suggesting the next move Biden will try to pull off will be to try to convince as many Nikki Haley voters as possible not to Vote for Trump and give him a chance instead. It will be difficult, obviously.
Now with the declaration of Transgender visibility day yesterday, it seems the right and the moderate right have found more fuel to continue to attack Biden in social media and also outside of it, specially because of the coincidence of the date with the day of Easter.
Still, not losing any sleep over it, the odds won't move because of it, Trump has already desensitized many of us (sadly), if this was a different time and political context, he would have been ousted of the Republican Party for only a fraction of what he has done and be declared guilty of.  ::)

Expecting to see if he gets imprisoned and how that will change the odds before the elections, It may be the perfect time for anyone here who has not yet places their bets to get in.  :P

Other way round the odds on this bet is nicer then trying to guess alot of sports games.   Depends on how well you know your sports I guess but I often find that tricky with last minute alterations to the factors and so to the result.

The reason I would make this bet especially is two obvious key reasons, the event is the entire year and you cannot escape how much publicity and discussion this event will receive.  You will be aware of the dynamics to a small or larger extent quite easily.   Then 2nd point even more true is massive bias in the betting population, people bet their favorites even if its not the best bet and this creates value.

You have massive potential here for a big bet and one with obvious bias opening up great value, who would walk away from this unless you are really sick of politics then I dont really blame you of course :)

Same thing that my cousins are saying in the US, they are voting for Trump. But what is to be considered actually is that this election is going to be the wildest in the US. This is the 2nd round of what happened in the first election battle between Biden and Trump.

If the administration today is making the life of Trump a living hell, it's going to be chaos if Trump wins. Regardless of who will win actually, Trump supporters won't also accept Biden for another term.

The bookmakers might want to just postpone your win until the chaos settles if it ever will settle like any of them take an auth.

When Trump was the POTUS, many hates him. Now that Biden is spreading the money of America in the entire world for startling wars instead of putting that money to their people, now, people hates him.

It is not surprising that people want someone like Trump back, of course not all as the americans don't have that much choice from the others that are on the list.

Anyway, as usual with politics, they're always tricky and always starts a lot of argument.

@boyptc. It was only shown by the biased woke mainstream fakenews media that everyone hated Trump, however, how can everyone explain his electoral victory during his first campaign to run as president? It would be impossible to win the presidency if everyone hates a certain candidate. Also, how can everyone explain why Trump is presently listed as the favorite by the sportsbooks? There are people who hate Trump but there certainly are people who also love Trump.

Funny enough, I haven’t been a part of the state’s politics and the last time I ever paid attention was during the period Obama was contesting and maybe that was because it seems some prophecies were about coming to past that a black man was to govern the states.
I think to really have some edge in betting on these candidates as a foreigner who aren’t active with the system might be really demanding as one might be required to do a lot of research and make a lot of inquiries and just as you also suggested, one might also be required to watch a lot of  YouTube videos, so as to say informed, else you’ll just be doing a wasted and uninformed bet.

Personally, if I’m to bet of these election, I think I will be doing a two way bet where I will bet on two separate candidates because there are already two in my mind and judging from the statistics, it seems my first choice of candidate isn’t even having any reasonable figure on the board.

People might hate trump but since it’s gambling and involves money, they at some point, have a great feeling he might win and at the long run don’t want to loss their money and have to keep an eye on him.
Trump was one of the action presidents of the states (I stand corrected please )

So, the last time you paid attention to the politics of the USA was during Obama administration/election. I must say you has been missing out a lot of fun, memes and also a lot of wacky stuff from both the political right and the political left.
Memes and shitposting around all the internet is a thing, but the wacky stuff is completely different.
For example, there is a congresswoman in the United States who around 2021, claimed wildfires going on in California were actually being started by laser satellites owned by jewish people who wanted to develop the burned land later or something like that. Yes, that actually happened, you can look up for it.

Also, If you are planning to have stakes on this election in the USA you should also watch some documentary film about the assault on the capitol back in January 6th 2021. Many of the repercussions of that day still haunt Trump's political protects and the view his followers see him.
I personally believe Trump's odds would be much higher had he not took part in the events of the capitol.

Yeah I think I’ve really missed a lot and I couldn’t pay attention because I just felt the world’s political system was messed up and had to withdraw myself from everything politics but I still heard and read some news though, so maybe I wouldn’t be totally left out.

I also heard of some incidence that took place after trump left office for Biden and how trump supporters trooped the state White House destroying things and all of that and I was really shocked at their actions and why such a thing will happen and I think that protest wasn’t a peaceful one and I also learnt that trump disassociated himself from every claims connecting him to the incidence even when his Inlaw or maybe nephew(not really sure ) was involved and he(trump) also ordered the arrest of all those that went in for the protest for him.
Heard this story from someone else and not really certain about that but I think all this happenings and people and still massively in for trump, is a clear sign that his loved.

If you don’t mind, hope I can pm you and maybe we get to be friends🫣

If anyone thinks that Kennedy will get anything more than 5% I am willing to bet them. Not money, because I do not have money to bet lol, but I can bet that I will come here and say that I will never talk about American politics ever again and actually won't. Kennedy can try to do his best as much as he wants and its not about him neither, it is about the fact that there are just two parties in the nation now and people will vote mostly for those two parties nobody else.

If it was less polarizing person maybe they would have a chance, because we already have two very polarizing figures at the parties, but a third one do not need to exist. We will see Trump or Biden win it and that is the end of the discussion for me.

With my own observation, it is true that he's being liked by the people and those demolishing job by the mainstream media is there.

I agree.

Even the bookies see him as the major candidate in here and they're aware on how citizens are disliking the actions of Biden that can't even take care of its own people.

Well, many would like here that term again "Make America great again".

One major reason is that RF Kennedy running as independent steals many votes from Biden according to the polls. So there's once again going to be fierce competition in swing states for each candidate to grab electors.
And there's also many working class left-wing voters that feel as if Biden has completely failed them and their families with his promises.
Biden underdelivered on promises of healthcare and student loans which was a huge disappointment to many left wing Americans especially after the Biden campaign had shot Berlie's presidential bid on the foot.
And then there's also issues that are important for many people. For instance Biden underdelivered on environmental issues.
And also Biden grossly underdelivered on humanitarian issues where he continued to allow and promote a genocide to take place in Gaza... This especially has angered people so much that people heckle Biden about it everywhere he goes, in all of his rallies.

So really while Trump got overwhelming support from his Party's members, Biden seems to be losing people from his traditionally left-wing base all around, which is never a good sign. Many people will be voting third party or not be turning up to vote at all. So this is a situation that favors Trump who still maintains a strong base.

I'm not from the states but I feel like, Whoever puts America first before any other thing would definitely win.

Whoever makes United States of America a great place for it's citizens. Not to engage in unnecessary wars that are not the core objectives of the country is bloody bullshit.

I read Donald Trump tried to do this and that and most people innit the states don't want him anymore. I've also seen folks who thinks that his relationship with Vladimir Putin is not as cool as it should be.
Also, for the sake of Bitcoin to thrive, we would need a president who can impose in good conditions that would enable Bitcoin thrive. Kennedy seem like a better option amongst the three major candidates for the office though but Donald Trump I feel like has got to still be the right man.

I haven’t seen this on the Stake site. Where are you clicking to get these types of betting options? I guess I need to go search around the site more because I didn’t know there was a political section. I wouldn’t mind tossing some money on old Trump to save us from the woke mind virus if I’m able to.

Actually, you are talking about the attack on the Washington capitol, which happened back in January of 2021. Trump was in the White House during the attack and no violence happened in the WH, only in the capitol gardens and within the offices of lawmakers.  Though, I don't blame you from withdrawing from politics, specially American politics, it can be truly a mixture of disappointment, lies, conspiracies, conspiracy theories and a lot of people brain washed for stupid ideas of one party of the other one.
I am planning not to get as involved as I am know, once Trump politically expires and he becomes irrelevant for the future of the Republican party.

Nonetheless, since we are here for the money, he ate only supposed to pay attention to news and events which could change the odds of those candidates, so we can make our sound choices on where to bet and how much to bet.

My Private messages are always open to anyone who wants to chat, so if you ever feel like talking something in specific, feel free to do so. Sorry for the delay in my reply by the way.  :P

I have to qoute the entire discussion so I don’t get people from or poke nosing because it seems we’re already hijacking the thread 😂
But I was curious to know what your choice for the vote might be and your reasons for it but I think it wouldn’t be nice we discuss such here as I think your choice for a bet like this,  should be private and very personal.
I think a lot is happening in politics and previously, I thought it was just my country that was sick and infested with this political fraud but it seems it’s a global issue and rather than argue over the problems which we already know, i think we should ponder and start seeking ways to solve them.

I’m right in your pm senior and I hope we get a better relationship outside of the forum.

Every country today is experiencing crazy elections that usually happen in 3rd world countries, we don't see this happen in US but since the start of Trump vs Biden last election, it's becoming the usual in the US.

That wildfire started by laser satellite is also rumored even today especially what happened in Lahaina, Maui in Hawaii where all the houses in the town burned and the stuff that is colored Blue wasn't burned lol  It was rumored that Blue isn't affected by this laser.

Also, the attack on the Capitol was already debunked, there were videos about what really happened in the Capitol. The horned guy was even escorted by the guards while touring around.

The mental health state of Joe Biden must prejudice his campaign a lot, since it's undeniable he doesn't have cognitive conditions to remain on the leadership position of the country anymore. Besides that, it's really hard to predict what american citizens are thinking right now, because the media isn't so vocal about politics anymore like they used to be in Trump's era. If I could launch a guess, I would say the average citizen is hopeless about politics and doesn't care at all cheering for one side or another, because they already know both of them, and both of them proved to be ineffective, unable to meet expectations.

If I were to bet, I would say Trump is going to win this time, as his fans seem to be more engaged than the democracts and their branch office mainstream media, which I don't even know if I can consider to be mainstream anymore, since they are pretty decaying already, while the Trumpist media is already rising in influence and dominance on the national scenario. After all, I see a polarization of liars and manipulators in both sides, which are inevitably going to drive the country in direction to chaos, consequently affecting the whole world in a scenario of pre-world war.

When you look the bigger picture in a global scale, the bet on this particular event or the money you could make from this event become meaningless...

I really don’t get where you’re heading to, but I think I should quickly remind you that, these thread and discussion are sent intended for any form of direct or indirect form of support of any candidate but these was just some sort of try to get some clue as to know who to bet on if during the fourth coming election and since we’re  in the gambling industry to make money irrespective of what and who our favorite might be, we’ll always choose victory over fav.

With all these been said, I think if you have any candidate in mind and you want it bold and clear, then you can go ahead to state it and I think that’s one way to air you support and campaign for him.

Nobody wants their taxes flying to another nation while their Government are failing to provide services to its citizens so I think this is going to be the major factor on who wins the next POTUS election. Also the Democrats that keeps allowing illegal immigrants into their borders and stealing jobs from the American citizens.

Here you go https://stake.com/sports/politics-entertainment/politics/outrights

Yeah it's kinda weird, the U.S. election only has a single market for the outright winner and it's put in the same category as politics and entertainment. In that same page also you can find Eurovision.
I did put a direct link in the OP. But if you're US based then you need stake.us.

I wish there were more markets for politics. For example to see how third party candidates will rank etc.

There is no perfect bet accuracy just as much as there is no perfect polling, its all done in estimate.   The simple answer to this question is the bet is very popular.   Trump supporters are very forthright in expressing their views and the degree of support for their candidate.   Contrast that to Biden where half his votes are purely because he is the banner head for the Democrat administration, do they love the man not half as much but thats their reluctant vote in some cases.
  Those voters wont be bothering to bet, they are just on the band wagon to some extent or other.  I dont mind the guy but he aint that exciting to even his supporters, is he the oldest president not sure not far off the record surely.

The Trump supporters do bet hence its become biased and probably poor value as the bet is in demand but doesnt make it all perfectly correct; I think we do all already know that.

It is understandable, actually, if you think a bit about it. Most of people log onto their preferred casinos and bookies to partake in gambling/betting as a way to distract themselves from the issues of their daily lives, and one does not need to be a genius to realize politics is a topic which is not as appealing as professional sport leagues can be. It is a topic which is actually actively avoided by many, on order not to get stressed.
The fact the elections of the United States have some markets to bet in is due to its importance and wide red of implications to the rest of the world, in terms of geopolitics, otherwise Casinos would not even mind to offer liquidity.

If you take a look at the betting markets, elections have never been favored for bettors as widely as sports. Still, I am pleased there are some open markets for people like me, who are passionate enough on geopolitics and economics so we can put some bucks on stake and capitalize on our knowledge and research on governments, specially the United States'.

i choose trump as the candidate who will win this election. because i see that most americans are fed up with what the democratic party is doing to their country, especially the biden government which is positioning america as a weak and defenseless country against threats or attacks carried out by other countries. with trump coming back, it increases people's enthusiasm to be able to make america great again (even though this dream is actually just a delusion) but i am sure that in this election trump will win.

I also think that Trump is going to win, he is also taking a very idealistic position, of recovering what the USA was before, and that the USA has a lot of power, well since the end of the Second World War things have been very good for the USA, I know adopted the dollar as the world currency, it is a country that is militarily very strong, I think that many people in the world would like to be in the USA, to be American citizens, who have certain freedoms to live, all of that can be something gratifying for many people in the world , and for the common American, I think they want there to be a Donald Trump who can offer him that strength and security that he tried to give in his mandate, and also that if the majority of Congress supports his ideas, because he will still feel inhibited from making decisions that he has committed, but at a global level he is a very imposing figure, and that is what they want to recover in the USA.

I doubt Trump has more broad support now then in 2016 when he was coming off his TV show fame and general idea of business man makes USA great etc.   The background picture now is not a cross country support based victory but more selective republican support.   Im not surprised his party cant field another candidate, he is the ex president after all but I dont assume others outside the party are switching to Trump.

If people are not switching to Trump, over to republicans as a vote and Trump has lost at least a bit of prior support from various negatives related to the court trials etc.   That doesnt add up to a win imo.

Trump cannot duplicate the surprise electoral college result.  Im going to be surprised if in an all vote count he has the majority and Biden is the minority, if I see that I will consider the idea again.   Trump isnt being elected but he is increasingly popular with some voters I get that.

Final point I have to remember myself, the bet and its odds especially in a pari-mutuel setup of betting has its own dynamics and trend to it.   Its a tricky one  I think the whole deal is interesting bet to do anyway, I try to stay neutral on the whole politics of it all of course.

I am really amazed if Kennedy are indeed overlapping with biden voters. Considering what that guy is talking about it's really far from any democrat, but i guess i have to trust the analysis of people who have studied this. Personally i can't get my head wrapped around that.

And i would believe that voters of Biden would know why that student loan forgiveness fail wasn't really fault of Biden. I totally believe that could be still coming, if they find a waterproof way to deliver that.

With Gaza i totally agree with. I can't really defend his actions or lack of actions on that. At least he finally has said something how it should stop, but that was really bad call. But i don't have a clue that for how many people this is a key issue. But i am certain that they won't flip fully for trump either.

If not more support to Trump then it could be the case of Biden's declining popularity.

I also remember some people saying that he surprisingly won back then because the democrats only took him as a joke. They then made sure to come out and vote in the next election to put Biden in office. Could it be that the Republicans are thinking the same now - making sure they actually vote?

It is more about the way the Republican party has devolved since 2020 and the way of thinking of the current average Trump supporter has on the democratic process. Back in the day, Trump was seen as a joke within politics, before his candidacy was taken seriously, but know this time is different. There people who even believe Donald Trump to be some kind of political/religious messiah which is supposed to command a battle against corruption and wokeness, I can even tell how Trump himself feels kind of awkward when in events people approach them to pray around him, and ask God to protect him and give him a second term.
This whole movement kindd has started to develop cultist characteristics, which highly benefits Trump.
After all, Trump said during his first campaign back in 2016, that he could literally kill someone in bored daylight in a gun in the 5th avenue and he would not lose any support from his base. That is what he has been trying to achieve with his tight grab on the Republican party.

I feel like the people who vote for Trump do not vote FOR trump but to vote against Biden, which is same for people who vote for Biden as well. People are trying to show why one candidate should be the president, but I believe honestly that showing why the other one shouldn't be the president seems like a better campaign method.

If you let me, I can write 10 page article on why neither should be president, which is sad for the USA but that is a trouble for the Americans. They are the ones who picked these candidates, not like these candidates came out of nowhere and forced on them, people of the USA hand picked these two old weird dudes as their future president, and both did their term as well. So they should pity their situation.

Actually, once you have studied the politics of the United States for a long enough time you can come to the conclusion much of the power of choice on the candidates for the presidency of the country does not actually reside within the will of the people, but rather much has to do with the will of both the Republican and Democrat party and their corporate associates.
There is a good reason why in all major new outlets you will never see a their party candidate to be fully covered, the hegemonic power of the Republican and Democrat party has chose to keep something like an status quo on the political climate of the country.
The objective is to keep the duopoly on politics in their hands, so they can funnel as much money as possible from donors. So while it is true in the end on the end each person is responsible for who they vote for. The situation in that country is specifically designed to erase third party competitors from the game.

Watching how the US Presidential Race is going Trump might likely win, Biden has the support of few. If we consider with the policies, and laws passed by Biden, America is one of the worst Country on Earth. And many ain't ready for that, they want America to go back to it lost glory, a nation runned on moral standards, peace and love.

The America today is not the America of yesterday, and only Trump can help America and save them from this woke state. Against all odds Trump might Win.

Joe Biden have weaknesses which are openly spotted out but for Donald Trump, he's one of the powerful men in the universe. Donald Trump have always been the best president though he's popularly known for his aggressive behavior and adamant when it comes to tolerance. World Power, United States Of America have everything to leas the world but based on the good chemistry between developed countries, let's say they're trying to remove the US from world power.

I don't have any doubt of the popularity of Donald Trump, of course. Actually, he used to be very popular even before getting involved within politics, once he got into the world of American politics his popularity increased dramatically. The degree of his popularity is such that even the legal problems he has had have little or no effect on the view people have about him.
Though, you should take a look at some polls and surveys which try to compile information about how the people of the United States views the trials Trump is going through. Because of it, I am expecting to see an inflection point in the popularity of Donald Trump if he happened to be found guilty of a felony.
If he is found to be guilty, I will probably bet against him and in favor of Joe Biden.

There is still people within the United States, who are Republican but also believe in the due process of their state and federal courts.

With the current popularity and the noise under the Trump's name, that could be a big help for his candidacy.
Actually, it's hard to weigh in as of the moment because this two has a strong number of supporter.

Seriously, I'm thinking for a possibilities about Biden being more greedy to stay in power like taking this opportunity to declare war so he can stay in power for another term or until the war last. I don't know but I hope for a more clean election and hope that people of America will vote for who is the best in terms of their work since both candidate already served their terms and deliver a good one.

I also see Donald Trump with potential, it should be noted that there is something that I admire a lot about him and that is his determination, apart from his financial education, when I read the book he wrote with Kiyosaki, they really did something masterful, some advice from people who really know Trump is very intelligent, that is what I admire most about him, apart from all this, another thing I admire is that unlike many presidents, he is not trained as a politician, he was trained to being a great manager, businessman, doing business and having a good vision of the generation, and that is something that defends him a lot, I think that the Biden era must now come to an end, many things have happened in the world, possible wars, and I know that the United States can somehow come in and Avoid certain conflicts, and this is something we all know, so I am inclined to see him win too.

@luckmcfly you have made credible points to the elevation of Thrump against Biden which to me are very much true even though am not an American but thanks to books I read. IMO, a key aspect that will sharply influence the choice of the American citizens looking at the position of the United States of America in the world politics, with what is going on in the different parts of the world, the Ukraine-Russia war and the recent Isreal-Iran conflict which America has shown some weakness in intervening audaciously all through this period of Biden's administration unlike in Thrump's administration  and more other previous administrations. So it's unlikely that Biden might have a second chance in this election.

Im not sure the businessman look is working to so well when they are prosecuting him for various tax and fraud charges.  Or at least that is what the courts are attempting to do.   Normally I think they would just ignore or fail to proceed with charges as prosecutors dont like to lose cases not easy to prove.   Obviously its in lieu of full charges for his supporters actions vs the senate in the democratic process, many take that disaster as the most serious thing that cannot be ignored.

I'd agree on the Trump as alternate to Biden as 50/50 if it weren't already impaired from his 2016 run where every factor came into play to make that election run work.   Apart from being an ex president he hasnt improved his chances by his record or standing with the broad breadth of the population.  His own supporters no doubt will redouble their vigorous campaign but I believe it does require more votes from the middle ground and those are eroded by all the news headlines.

Not everyone watches Fox news or any Tv news especially.  They may read the newspaper perhaps not even a national one, my point is not all share the same perspective hence the cross-section of votes varies greatly in their stance but overall I dont see an improvement or increase in depth of support except within Republican party, the middle ground will decide 2024 elections & those who dont even like either candidate.

I respect your opinion and I would certainly agree with you about the potential Trump has to positively impact the United States, if he was a normal politician and if he was running using mainstream ideas and a mainstream campaign for it to reach the white house again.
That is what I do not like about Trump, how he has negatively transformed the Republican party into an organization which does not look like anything from the previous days of the party, then they used to debate about taxation, fiscal politics, debt , then most of the politicians in the Republican party were aware Vladimir Putin was/is a dictator and autocrat. The Republican party does not seem to be as patriotic as used to be (I am not saying the Democrat party is much better though).

I would have preferred to Nikki Haley to win the nomination of the party or even Mike Pence, even though he almost spineless when comes to facing and criticizing Trump. He has only done so lately, because he is aware his political career is likely over after drooping out the race.

Maybe we are watching a different speeches and tweets /  but intelligence isn't the word that comes to mind. It's confidence combined with incompetence. But what i give him credit for is his conman skills. He is extremely good example of confidence trickster, like an embodiment of dunning–kruger-efekt. And he takes it to such ridiculous levels, he formed a cult. And there's nothing he has ever said that would help me believe that he was involved with the creation of the book kiyosaki wrote, except lending his name for publicity.

What makes him favorite presideltal candinate in betting, is the fact no matter what he says, his supporters believe him, and that's where he is on his best. He can talk about anything and just say that he is very best at it, and for some reason deliver it with such a confidence that people believe in him. And if someone calls him out, he just belittles them and invents insulting nicknames. Like a bully in a schoolyard, people rather stay on his good side not to get trump treatment. So in short: people believe him and people who are betting for him know this.

Yes, it is very true, although since Trump has now gotten more involved in politics, what I imagine is that now he wants to win over his party much more, in addition to pleasing his opponents, of course politics is like that, you have to do deals and things that are not very good just to receive support and then have to pay political favors, that is something that changes the face of everything, I just intuit it, I don't know if it really happens, I'm just speculating, what happens is that in the country in which one lives, politicians risk all this to have what they want most, and once they are in power, things are done to please those who helped them and so on. The president has more support within Congress and I believe that the people take a second or perhaps a third place.

Trump has been a great contender and although I don't know what will be the outcome of the election but I just needed to see someone there that would take the country to a better atmosphere. One can try luck and win the bet if what they predicted actually becomes the outcome. Sometimes it is good we try and bet on this kind of game so that we can try to make money from it but this is not going to be easy. Biden is already old and I think he needed to rest nit trying to rule the country one more time since he has been in the presidential seat as vice for so long. It is time we expect a surprising result because this is going to be difficult to predict.

There is something that must Always be fulfilled, I have always said something , When a President stays in power for a long time, all things fall apart and that is something that should not be allowed , because a person in power is no good for him to stay so long , and for now Trump has had many problems , he has had to face trials and Many things with judges, he has seemed tired because he cannot run for president, and apparently that is the only thing that has kept him bored, I am not an American , but in political terms, I think that a Country of that caliber must have a Really Strong President , Biden has done well, he has had his mistakes , but that is normal for any human being , but if the USA needs a change or course in another direction.

Oh, I am sure Trump is aware on the political favors and the alliances which are necessary for him to climb onto power again.
For example, lately there is a lot of drama going on in the United States because of how it is expected Tik Tok will be banned from the USA soon, if their other company does not seem the social media to other company based in the country.

In previous years, Trump himself has been very critic on the way the social media is being handled from China and how it could represent a national threat, as it collects information of the American people and stores it in China. Recently, Trump has changed his heart and political position on TikTok being banned, and there are two main reasons for it: he recognizes the generation Z likes Tik tok and if Biden bans Tik tok, it will be beneficial for him. It was also uncovered there is a donor of Trump who seems to have a major stake on Tik tok, so he changed his opinion to please those who had keep his campaign running with donations.

That is what most of American politics is about, donators and big corporations manipulating law and the will of the people, who does not have billions in assets.

To which most politicians are not so different after all. Whether a Dem or Rep, they are all still part of the same group that has the same enemy.  Trump is a businessman though and he has to balance not upsetting his donors that's why it may be his idea to offer to buy Tiktok first or else ban it.

Whoever wins the election still has no real freedom to do things really because of the donors who have control over the politicians.

I feel like them man who supports and back Joe Biden are fauckin twats, because how do you support a recalcitrant and stiff-necked president who cares and put other countries before his nation, how? They'd say Trump is traitor and lies too much but I don't know the details. Honestly, I don't really care about them and their politics.

They preach and talk about democracy and shii but never supports it. Everyday I wonder who made them the police of this world because I don't like how they have handled matters especially if it doesn't benefits them.

Why would Joe Biden keep on funding Ukraine, Taiwan and also Isreal, when all these fund should be used to boost the falling economy? Why has he been so stubborn? The world needs peace amd not war. Like I said, I no longer care  or gives double fvcks, I wish them all the best with their various affairs. They was quick to call Putin a war criminal but hasn't done shit with the President of Isreal? Killing kids? It's laughable.

Over here in my country, alot of people are rooting for Trump to win, and to be honest, if actually I was or decided to bet on the USA presidential election, I think I will have to bet on Trump.
But then, another thing is, the odds on Trump winning doesn't look so attractive for me to want to bet on him, and also, several cases in court concerning Trump may as well trample his chances of becoming the next president of the United States of America, so, based on this, I likely may decide to bet on Biden rather.

Let me just be plain and be honest as well, I will be totally confused 😕 if I was to decide to bet on one of this candidates, it's really tough to decide or choose which one to bet on, as I personally believe that both Trump and Biden have good chances of winning, every other candidate on that list are possibly just catching cruz, the battle is between Trump and Biden.

I guess that this is because casinos have to win some money too, but in these cases it is a little bit too obvious that the odds are on their side :D

In occasions like this one many people will bet irrationally for their favorite candidates, even if they are not the only two ones who have real chances of winning, so why would they waste the opportunity?

It is a fact that if Trump fails to win he will look for a Way to Silence tik tok, or something he should do, however he is a person who is always Looking for something to do to Be able to establish what he wants, or what he says, if Trump He comes out well free of all this that they are accusing him of and if he becomes president, I would like to imagine the persecution that I will see them do to the judges and all these types of things that bother him. , because he is practically one of the people who have been bothering him the most, many politicians will have to look for Another country to leave, because everything they have done to him it is impossible for him not to want to seek revenge, they are waking up a possible sleeping Lion, if it comes it comes to power , the first thing he will do is take revenge, without a Doubt I still see it from that Point of view.

Last night I have learnt the State of Arizona has formally indicted important members of Donald Trump inner circle when he worked as President of the United States. Bit only that, it seems the State of Arizona has also chosen to indict around a dozen of people who posed as fake electors, in a scheme which was alledgely keep as a plan to overturn the presidential election of USA, back in 2020.
Trump himself seems to be listed in the indictment as an unindicted co-conspirator, do he won't be prosecuted for now. My guess is procesutors  plan to flip all alledged conspirators against Trump before indict him directly in the State of Arizona.

Regardless on this lastest development, it is very unlikely this will affect Trump odds and his popularity among the average Republican voter, it has been already proven they do not care about those indictments.
Though, we must keep in mind this is an state level criminal trial, which means Trump would not be able to pardon himself in the case of winning the president this year.

^^^It is quite clear that the only chance to prevent Trump from becoming the next President of the United States is to disqualify him from running for that post. Democrat establishment hopes that they can get someone like Nikki Haley or Lisa Murkowski as the Republican nominee, who will offer an easier competition to Joe Biden. Also, they can also hope that even if the GOP candidate wins the election, he/she will be less hawkish on issues such as immigration and support for Ukraine in Russo-Ukrainian war.

Well. Then according to your expectations, Trump is going to inevitably win the presidential election this year. Since, if I recall correctly, the Supreme court of the USA has already ruled Trump cannot be disqualified from running in States which choose to exclude him because of his alledged participation in an insurrection some years ago.
I assume you are pretty much aware how indictments do not seem to affect his popularity among the voting base, so I agree it is likely any of his legal problems will be politically costly in the short term.
Actually, support for him continued to accumulated as he continued to be indicted both federally within state levels.

Also, I believe some candidate like Nikki Haley would still try to address the problem in the southern border of the USA, it is a policy of the Republican party and she is that of that party.
Unless you are a believer if the theory of the Uniparty.

It's quite interesting what this does to American politics, the fact that they want to see Trump in a bad light because these things can give him bad propaganda, but if this doesn't work for the opposing political party, why do they do it? ?because they fall into the same mistakes that politicians always make, a political contender should not fear what the other Candidate does, if he is Very sure of his political campaign he should not spend money, energy and so on, in that case it is what they What they should do is manage their campaigns well, without playing dirty or taking advantage of the fact that they exercise power. If Trump wins later, the first thing he will do is take revenge when he becomes president, then that will be a war between politicians and that is actually the Worst thing that the United States becomes politicized.

I am not fond of Republican political positions to be honest but even as an outsider I can see how desperate Democrats and Democrat aligned media have gotten.
Going after Trump because a woman that only could according to rumors become his vice president pick, is said to have euthanized a dog she once had? First of all, who the fuck cares? People go through a lot of grief when having to put down their dog, and now democrat aligned media use her grief in an attempt to portray Trump as cruel? Can't they see that being so desperate will backfire?

Secondly, the whole Trump prosecution thing seems to be backfiring also now that the supreme court seems to be aligning more with the presidential immunity scenario. I mean, if Democrats want actual change in this country they should put down a long term commitment to remove presidential immunity from prosecution. Of course they're not really gonna do that because it existing also serves their interests as a party serving big corporate interests. But they just try to apply the law only where it suits their interests, now even defying the supreme court.

The United States is already politized and very divided, and Trump from the beginning did not help to solve it. I agree with you, if he comes again in a position of power like the presidency of the United States, he is very likely to somehow abuse that power to take what he calls "retribution" against his political opponents and anyone he believes has wronged him in the past.
At least, that is what he has said in his rallies during this presidential cycle in the USA.
If we are going to talk about the management of campaigns and the way how candidates manage their speech and resources, then one cannot omit the way Trump continues to alledge a political prosecution against him, it has become an important component of his discourse. While Joe Biden has for now tried to avoid directly mention Trump, unless it is necessary.
My guess if Biden is trying to avoid feeding the theories about him being directly involved with the indictments Trump is facing.

I doubt there is much to happen this summer which could change the odds of either of them in the betting markets.

She didn't only kill her dog named Cricket but she also shot dead an unnamed goat because it had a bad smell and chases her kids around. It is normal for politicians to use their opponent's mistakes or stories to gain some political points by showing their weakness, cruelty, or corrupt nature.

But in the case of Kristi Noem, she is been painted as a cruel woman who lacks sympathy and shouldn't be part of Donald Trump's team. As an animal lover, the excuse she gave for killing the dog, Cricket was okay since it had become violent and dangerous to her and her family. But the reason for killing the goat is just silly because she was aware that uncastrated goats usually have a strong offensive odour. Brutally killing the goat because of its natural smell is inhuman.

These stories portrayed her as a strong-hearted personality because I don't think I will have the guts to shoot and kill my domestic animal. They are part of the family, so I might not have the willpower to kill them. I might decide to donate them to some animal charity or assign someone else to kill them. With Trump having a hardman personality,  Kristi Noem will not be a good running mate because both of them will make policies without considering the people. I won't vote for two candidates that has showed some lack of emotion or empathy, at least one of them should be emotional.


What goes around also comes around. If democrats are misusing the power of incumbency to persecute and harass Donald Trump, they should also not forget that one day the Republicans will take power. The same laws they have been enacted to make their opponents suffer will also be used against them.

I feel like it is basically showing the collective situation and not that single situation. I mean Trump has a lot of things that you can hate about him, but you can't just keep talking about the same thing all the time, you can't talk about "I just grab them by..." in 2024, that would be weird, that was then and people talked about it and we do hate him for him, but then this happens and you talk about this for a week or two, and then something else comes up and you hate him for that.

The point is that there is always something disgusting about him and you hate him, and then you move on to the new thing that you hate him for. In some cases (like for you this one) it is not a big deal, you can't have a new disgusting thing per week, so sometimes it is not a big deal to some people.

Okay, so according to the pic the most likely candidate to win is Trump, followed by Biden, and the others are basically throwing money away. If I had to bet I would bet on Trump, because I understand that Biden is worn out from his presidency and doesn't seem cognitively very stable. Although who knows, as I am more of a supporter of positions that defend the free market so maybe I am a little biased but that the lowest odds are paid if Trump wins I understand that I am pretty well on track.

I'm not really into politics but it when was the last election in the US? If I can remember it wasn't that long right or I'm not just really into it that's why I didn't know when was the last time. The last time I remember was there's a Hillary Clinton, I think that was 2015 or 2016? Anyway it seems the odds are in favor with Trump, do you think he'll win the next election? Why do odds is in favor in him?

It's so interesting what the media will do to portray someone as cruel. I agree that Kristi Noem writing about these things in her own book is stupid of her especially if she's a politician with high ambitions but it's funny that every article about her is about her dog now. A dog that according to her there were good reasons to euthanize. Killing a goat for being smelly though? oh wow... I wonder why the media didn't pick up on that one though? perhaps it would have been too hypocritical to bother about a goat when American will perfectly fine eat a goat and the Biden admin hasn't cared to do anything about animal wellbeing in general.

So yeah, such attacks are of course expected in the political arena. But I just wonder who they're expecting to convince in this manner. There's much better arguments to convince people to change their vote. One of them is economics. But with both candidates being bad for the working man they just resort to slurs and attacks.

In the 3rd world country, character assassination is very common and they are not even true but as long as their president is sitting they can publish whatever they want. The media can ignore Kim Kardashian so long as she is on the side of the sitting party. But if the politician is on the other side, it will be a living hell where even a house fly that lands on her face will be magnified just to put it on the local front page news. That is how dirty the politics is.

I don't know why Trump is the only option because there are decent candidates actually. But then this thread is about winning the election bet though. Between Biden and Trump. It's Trump who has the possibility of winning based on odds. 1.70

To me it is quite remarkable how the odds for the Trump candidacy and winning over the presidency have changed in less than a year. There could be people who is already in profit just because of that behavior of the odds, though with this margin of odds it is very unlikely people will cash out before the night of the election comes upon us. We are talking about relatively small differences, after all.
This conversation actually reminds me some video I saw on polling and political predictions some time ago. It seems some people do not realize yet that, when comes to polls it is about who people want to win the presidency, while betting markets show the reality on who people *believe* who is going to win. (Regardless of their political preferences and hopes).

Either which measurement is more of value for us to try to guess on the winner is up to each one of us, I personally think betting markets can be a little more accurate than plain polls.

Yeah. Betting market shows the anticipated winner, votes can be bought or change of mind but in betting people arrive sure an ready to put there money because they know that candidate will win. Just like am anticipating Trump to win, because he only can revive fallen America and bring back it high societal standards. Unless they gonna do Electoral Malpractice or use any flaws against him, if not Trump is surely gonna win.

The betting market is not always right though, otherwise it would be far more abused by people who seeks to make money out of it. What I am trying to say is that those markets when compared to the common polls are something like "who do think is going to win?" Versus " who do you want to win?", being the betting market the representation of the true expectations people have on those candidates, otherwise they would put no money on the table.
By the way, if you take a look as the macroeconomics of the United States, it seems they are going quite good under the leadership of Biden, having a record low unemployment and inflation going pretty much down, compared to previous years of his presidency. Historically, presidents who manage to keep a good economical climate in the United States tend to be reelected.

Just because one of the candidates never conceded does not mean it was actual foul play during the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/rfk-jr-brain-health-memory-loss.html

Wake up babe, new New York Times attack article just dropped  :D

They're now claiming that RFK Jr. has parasitic worms in his brain based off of a statement he once made. They even defied medical ethics to ask doctors for a diagnosis about someone they haven't examined. It's so funny how the media will play with someone's pain only to make fun of them and attack them in politics. If the Biden campaign keeps being so reactionary I expect more centrists to end up voting Trump because this media strategy is beyond stupid.

That may be one of the most insane articles I have seen lately, which is very much to say keeping in mind how Donald Trump has influenced what is considered to be normal and what it is not in modern politics, sadly.
Obviously, this is all article aiming to discredit the physical and mental health of RFK Jr to generate an advantage for both Biden and Trump. It is not a secret both the Republican and Democrat parties view him as a potential spoiler to one of the candidates, so it makes sense he will start to get attacked with more energy as we get closer to November.

Leaving these news aside and disregarding whether they are true or not, I hope they are not and those fears on his health were overestimated. Nobody deserves to have some kind of parasite in their brain, not matter whether one is supportive of their political standings or not.

Depending on those this news get spread in the main stream media of both political extrems, I would expect this to somewhat hurt the opinion about him and his alledged good health.  :P

Just in, Former president Trump openly attacked the Biden Administration's based on the policies it has been following against crypto and called for crypto fans to vote for him:

https://fxtwitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1788373884418294072

This is such an interesting development. I would assume Trump has been following everything happening in crypto and to an extent had also been personally affected given he released NFT projects. I wonder if the Biden campaign will give in to respond given their up to now total disregard of crypto investors.

Wow!!! This is big actually. There is no doubt that during Trump administration the regime was much more friendly to crypto, compared to what we are having during the last 3-4 years. Anyway, Trump is a businessman and he knows a lot about cryptocurrency. On the other hand Biden is a 81 year old with dementia who has no idea of what crypto is. During Biden's term as the POTUS, it will be people like Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen who design the laws and policies dealing with cryptocurrency.

dude's been talking alot of positive things lately about cryptos and while to some extent it might look a bit politically motivated, the good side is that it's a great development to see this kind of statement and positive remarks from him and it will certainly go along way yo getting individuals from this sphare into his support network.

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1788371259287327136
Lately made a statement to remove the level of hostility that crypto is getting as a results of the regulations imposed om it and seems to be suggesting that his administration will embrace it fully.

I tossed a 3 figure bet at Donald Trump being the next US President.  If he wins the election for a third time and is cheated out of becoming President again with middle of the night ballot drops that defy statistics then I wonder if that counts?  LOL.

I just got 2:1 odds on the bet, but I feel like the odds should be longer.  Sure, Donald Trump is the obvious favorite, but I don't think the cheating that liberals are obviously going to attempt should be discounted.  Clearly Joe Biden is a demented old man that couldn't get a job anywhere in the private sector doing anything and no right minded individual would vote for him to lead their country, but the question is how much cheating will take place...

I once got fouled by this type of bets where Trump vs Biden round 1 happened and here in Romania , he simply had no idea who Biden was or still is and I decided to trow a bet on Trump @4 odds and since then , I will never ever trow money on political bets. It's a waste of time as I think every election is rigged in a way or another  ;D ;D but I have a feeling Trump will win his 2nd mandate.

Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are political and economical dinos who may have a very rough time trying to understand the benefits of Bitcoin and the alternative currencies for the average people, they grew up and built their fortune in an era where centralization has a monopoly on all the banking and money wiring systems on the planet, to them Bitcoin and blockchains may not have much sense to exist.
Though. unlike Biden, Trump is willing to learn a little bit on those topics if that benefits him politically and economically... as a republican, he is not so interested in reducing the carbon footprint of his country and he do not mind miners of Bitcoin to use fossil fuels to mine and secure the network, Biden does and because of how misinformed Biden is, he wrongly assumes Bitcoin mining is a synonym of contamination and pollution, then in reality all of it can be done with renewables.


By the way, is there any way to check this video was actually done in a speech or event being held by Trump and not the result of some tools of artificial intelligence and deep fakes, just asking...

If you look into the news, Trump has been doing many things to prop up his crypto stance recently. It's a fact that he's making many such statements. Other times as an attack against Biden and more often saying that he's going to make positive legislative changes for crypto.

Does this mean anything though? Will Trump just repeal AML regulations and fire everyone from the relevant authorities? I think not. Trump in the end is a systemic politician. So much for him being anti establishment, but he's just with the establishment although just a different set of establishment people.

I don't think Trump will do anything to prop up crypto over traditional financial markets, banks etc. It's easy to attack Biden given the vast amount of SEC actions. But what was trump going to do? Let every crypto Ponzi scheme like FTX run amock without making US law stricter? Dunno but it sounds like a whole lot of nothing to me.

To be honest, I don't expect Trump to repeal all the AML regulations. That said, I am not sure whether the cryptocurrency industry is asking to repeal such regulations. What we want is a regulated economy, but with no demonization or unfair harassment. Officials from Biden administration try to portray cryptocurrency as something really bad. For them crypto is the tool of online criminals and terrorists. And I am sure that this scenario will change once Trump takes over as the POTUS sometime later this year.

I have a pretty good idea of what Trump is going to do if he manages to become the president of the United States again, he will basically do what he always does and he is very good at: cutting taxes.
He wobt tackle against regulation, Know your Client or Anti Money Laundering, because Trump is not much of a libertarian, he is more authoritarian and in his eyes it is convenient those laws continue to exist and thrive in the long term.
In the other hand, when he was not still convinced about cryptocurrency he went into effectively cutting taxes to the richest people and the high income citizens of the country. He will do the same when comes to Bitcoin and alternative currencies companies, he will rule out the incoming 30% tax on miners and allow people to keep their rewards, that would be (ironically) good enough for Trump to win the favor of an interesting percentage of people who is pro-Bitcoin. Specially those how want to the hashrate to stay within the USA and avoid miners to move to other countries looking for less taxes and cheaper energy.

Not like things got bad during this period or the previous one, presidents may interact with crypto situation a bit, but neither Trump nor Biden could be considered smart enough to understand what crypto is. Some people may tell them, but I bet they will forget about it in 15 minutes max, one of them completely ignores, the other makes some money scamming people via crypto world.

Trump has done some NFT stuff, I am telling you that he didn't even know what NFT means, he just wanted money for campaign. If anyone votes for either of them for their crypto stance, you must be naive and I pity you, neither cares about you. In fact, for ANY reason if you vote for either of them because you think they care about the people? You must be born yesterday.

Well. To be fair, a politician does not need to know how cryptocurrency works exactly in order for them to implement positive legistation for those who are holders of BTC or alternative currencies. For example, I don't think the president of El Salvador is completely informed on how Bitcoin actually works (he definitely knows more than Biden and Trump, though).

By the way, in the case of NTFs and Trump, I believe what actually happened is that Trump got contacted by some people in the United States who were the ones truly behing the minting and the coding of those NTFs, for them to make more money out of them, they decided to pay a good amount of money for Trump to advertise those NTFs and give a façade of those tokens being 100% official and having the backing of Trump, personally. So I don't think he was not as involved as we assume in the creation or even in the idea of those NFTs, he just sold himself as mean to do advertisement.

Why the hell all these bastard's are only option ? It feels like a setup for a country fail into war because of a extreme right and left values. These candidates are worthless and embarrassing to younger Americans that out the old ones. Why don't get a choice this time?

If Biden actually won another term we could call it "Weekend at Bernie's 2" LMAO-FJB!

Trump has historically talked down to crypto and always pointed to USD as the global reserve currency. It wasn't until the NFT Craze when Donald made his famous NFT collection, then he did a second one, and now he is saying all these good things about embracing crypto. I wonder if that topic will be mentioned in the upcoming debates. Speaking of the debates, does anyone want to place a wager that a fly will perch itself atop Biden's bald head again on national TV?! hahahahaha I'll also place a bet on him saying something completely barbaric that makes zero sense and sounds like he has dementia.... Any takers? LMAO

Trump has been attacking Biden in all types of issues concerning the Biden administration. However yes, the cryptospace appears to be becoming an important platform of argument where a candidate can either be pro or anti crypto. I wish Trump will not make himself look ignorant because crypto is a very complicated topic. One correct argument for you might be an incorrect argument for another.

Well. It seems Joe Biden has already switched from the defensive to a full offensive tactics and has openly called Trump out and ask for two debates in national television. Trump replied by accepting the challenge, let us see if he actually shows off and both debate face to face.

We must watch these debates, specially if we have stakes on either candidate winning this election, depending on what happens in these debates, the odds of both candidates could dramatically change in detriment of one of them and helping the other. I am personally planning to see I can monitor the debate live and also keep a tab on Stake with the odds summary on both Trump and Biden.

I am not expecting to see Kennedy showing off in neither of those debated and if he tries to, Trump will not go. Even though Kennedy is relatively irrelevant for the outcome of the election, ironically he can decide the winner by spoiling the chances of either Biden of Trump...

Trump is a businessman and he understands cryptocurrency. On the other hand, Joe Biden is a 81-year old career politician, who is driven by his left-wing policies. When Trump was the president (2017-2021), the policies were much more friendly towards the cryptocurrency users. And I hope that it will be the case, in case he wins the elections later this year. BTW, crypto is not one of the hot topics for this year's election. The priority topic is going to be the border situation, followed by Ukraine war.

The border situation and the wars abroad being keep by the support of the United States treasury and taxpayer dollars, sure, those are topics which many people will keep in mind when comes to voting. However, I believe they are other topics and issues which will take a good percentage of importance on the mind of the people when the time to vote comes. Or are you implying the average Republican politician is supposed to ignore the recent changes there have been with comes to the suppression of the reproductive rights of women in the States, or the growing dangerous rethoric within the American society, in which immigrants are labeled like vermin and mentally sick ones who are being shipped from all round the world?

There are both issues and problems which hurt and benefit opposing parties at the same time, Republicans ignoring those won't help their cause, in the same manner democrats won't get any support from ignoring the border situation.

Democrats are very clever. Illegal immigrants are not just "immigrants". They are invaders shipped in by the Democrat Party to increase their vote base. And that is exactly the reason why the states along the border (Arizona, Nevada, Texas.etc) has seen a rapid decrease in support for the Dems. Now the Democrats wants to include illegal aliens in census, so that they can inflate the population in deep-blue states such as California and thereby increase the number of House seats there.

Illegal Immigrants cannot vote in elections, though. Not even legal immigrants can, only citizens. I have seen hosts in Fox claiming the democrat party want to grant immigrants the ability to vote in November, but that is non-sense, since it would be illegal to do so.
It would make more sense in all the immigration going on in the United States had a different objective which did not necessarily involved the elections. For example, we could argue the influx of immigrants is very advantageous for companies and associations which seek to especulate with the value of real state and the renting of living spaces.
With more people in the USA, the demand will only go up for living places, do the landlords can ask for more money. That makes more sense than seeking directly to alter the voting population of the USA by November. Not even mention the access to cheap labor big companies expect from immigrants.

Well, trying to get votes is exactly what politicians must do, that is literally the way to get elected. If Trump says that he is in favour of Crypto and if crypto people in the USA do not like the way Biden has handled the situations, then they may end up voting for Biden anyway if they hate Trump too much but there is a likeliness that Trump could get his own voters to come out and vote, independents to vote, and maybe even some dems to vote, it is a good strategy for sure.

Is the population of crypto people who would switch big enough? We do not know, I do not think so, but every vote matters, right amount of few thousand votes at the right place, could switch the winner easily, so he is going to try without a doubt.

I think in the end the big crypto firm heads might not be that adamant about supporting Trump either. They've put themselves in a sweet spot where they are established at the top with harsh regulation now so competitors are hard to climb the ladder.

If trump opens up the market then they're gonna lose out though this process so there's high possibility quite a few of them will want to maintain the status quo and allow Biden have a second term. Funnily enough though, the miners are very anti democrat at least on the local level given how outspoken some democrats have been against mining on environmental terms. But for the presidential race we will have to wait and see. The donations will speak for themselves.

I would like to think miners would rather to be part of the transition to clean energy instead having another four years of rule under someone like Trump, who has already proven to be as anti-democratic as one can bet within the United States. I believe democracy is more important than having easier access to energy in the next years to mine, if miners want to have someone of the republican party in the white house who would not be as strict as Biden is, then it would be healthy for the rest of the democratic system in the country for them to wait for the next republican candidate who will replace Trump as the leader of the party, once Trumps is gone for good.
It would be very difficult for anyone in the next generation of Republicans to surpass Trump in anti democratic behavior and recklessness.
It is not supposed to even been in discussion, it does not matter how pro cryptocurrency a candidate is, if that person is not willing to access the result of elections, then it is a danger.

Man that’s a sorry list of human beings for the most part.  You are correct OP that by the law of averages, both candidates are well over the age of male deaths in the United States, which for the first time in many years has actually gone down, instead of up. I despise them both, and both clearly are in the stages of cognitive decline. In 2016 I was sure Hilary was going to win. I voted off ballot but laid a bet on her. I obviously lost that bet. Honestly the odds are about 50/50. The electoral college helps that be the case. Sadly.

Long story short, laying no bets , at least as of right now.

Well, I would dare to say most of people in the United States would rather to have different options for this presidency, instead only these two, but when comes to betting it is helpful to separate the personal preferences from our expectations on who is likely to win the election. There will be people who despise Biden who they are putting money on him as the possible winner of this incoming election, you know.
By the way, talking about the past 2016 election, Hillary had quite a good chance on getting the presidency for herself, but I the fact she was a woman could have played against her chances, it is not a coincidence all the presidents within the history of the nation have been men, after all.
Who knows, perhaps if the Stormy Daniels story had not been suppressed, then people would have rather to give Hillary a chance, instead Trump, back then politics was normal enough for people to care about their president being a womanizer.

The ironic thing is the Stormy Daniels story could have received a blank denial, regardless of whether its true or not.  The tape recordings of Trump speaking and being verbally abusive towards women had potential to be far more damaging.  Clinton said after that it was over, she was preparing for office or at least thats how it came across.

Trump could do no wrong seemingly in his campaign, it wasnt a fine tuned machine to begin with as it crashed plenty.   People overlooked and went with him anyway or at least the right percentages in the electoral collage etc.

The Debate with Biden on June 24th is going to be when I next bet on this especially because it could change alot.  I'm not sure its the best thing for Biden to do but apparently the polls are so bad his staff have decided yes he should.  He can reherase plenty of course, work to do but verbal show down with someone who breaks the rules I dont know that works out well for him this time.

https://apnews.com/article/2024-election-presidential-debates-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8

To be fair crypto people will not be big enough to mean anything for this elections at all, and it is 10% 0guaranteed that Biden will win the popular vote there is no doubt about that part. But, who will become the president? I am not entirely sure. The thing is, while what Trump stands for is disgusting, sometimes you need to do disgusting things to keep your country safe, and while what liberals "wish" is such a good and naively well mannered thing, you may end up getting hurt if you just try to be good and just become gullible instead. So, if this was a question of "who is the better human, nicer human?"

I would say Biden is 100x times nicer and kinder and better person than Trump no doubt, Trump is a POS, buuuuuut... does that mean he is not what USA needs? Not sure, maybe USA needs a POS for 4 years to fix some stuff, then go back to nicer presidents.