Bitcoin Forum

can't help pointing out that I predicted the event will happen, one month ago:
    
possibility of insolvency of Chinese exchange FxBTC examed (they are 4th biggest in China)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557067.0

(No, I don't know if the rest are insolvent, but they have a chance to save themselves by forming a league, as they did in self-regulation, thanks to the fact that Chinese traders do not use wallets, instead they transfer coins to the most trusted one when they are worried, hence if they "help each other" a real bank run can be delayed - but, it is also a golden opportunity to take down a competitor, e.g. "Hey, Huobi just came to me saying they want a league to fight bank run! They must have a problem, let's make their plead public". FxBTC is known aloof, not working together with other exchanges, it is their bane as it turns out)

Chinese news system alread received instruction from central on what/how to report Bitcoin, whether state media secure the opportunity to paint Bitcoin black or not depends on their judgement of the noise Bitcoin made: Big noise -> paint Bitcoin black, now you see the ponzi scheme; small noice -> no report of Bitcoin allowed, let it die without much debate.

(No I don't think Bitcoin will die, but more bad news from China expected)

Dude dont give a flying fruit cake about your CHINA problems

Us white devils are moving one...you need to sort your own shit out ..let us know when u can contribute constructively to crypto

Otherwise we have all had enough & really dont care...overthrow your repressive regime or something of that nature ...the rest is blah blah blah

Thanks for the update, zhangweiwu!

Your insight on the ground in China is most valuable. China's decoupling from the rest of the world is a troubling event; until it's completed, we in the West must deal with what's happening over there. It looks like China Syndrome's effect on the btc price is becoming less and less each and every day.

true. i have written a article to review the china saga - it influnce is ending, so it is time for eulogy. bu it is low urgency and hence delays in publishing queue. guest writing can't be prompt like forum post...

if you like a few minutes fun: china govt is strong, media hold dim view:
a lot chineses news outlets are reporting bitcoin bans of other countries. one title is: 'following the lead of china, the world countries queue to desert bitcoin'. some reports in china are saying: the bitcoin's decoupling from the rest of the world is a troubling event, but we must move on.

Stop being an asshole.  The Chinese govt is the enemy, just as all govts are the enemy, not the Chinese people. 

OVER IT !!

Tell me there has been no price manipulation amongst this crisis

1) LEVERAGE
2) NO ORDER FEES
3) NO FAKE VOLUME

Yeah they are all sugar and spice and all things nice.... :-\

They also tell you "Chinese Internet is the freest in the world", "China has the best human right record of the world", "Without China, xxx will collapse" (replace 'xxx' with anything). Smart Chinese simply won't give a shit to this kind of propaganda. For those stupid brainwashed Chinese, their involvement in bitcoin will just make it more volatile.

That may all be true, but not the OP's fault.

AGreed the OP has been bringing information relating to the issue

Yomofo y308.7344 & Others have not so much

But in reality I dont care or give a fuck about their problems any more ...NEXT

CRYPTO > CHINA

Only the last is truly often reported (especially China's "Global Times" newspaper): "Without China, xxx will collapse" (replace 'xxx' with anything). The Chinese do not report the first and second like you describe, because most Chinese consider 'freedom' and 'human rights' trivial, there is nothing to be proud of if you are the freest or have the best human record. It's like reporting a kid beat pacman level 99 - who would read it?

If you wish to see the Chinese value, the ocrresponding Chinese value of Freedom/Human Rights are:

position and obligation:
There is much to be proud of it if you have most orderly society and everyone knows their position, not to drift away from it, no matter if its obligation brings  benefit or suffering. So don't assume Chinese value the same value like the West - freedom etc etc

wealth and the chance to be wealthy:
There is much to be proud if you are wealthy, or if the country is wealthy.

You may consider it irony, but chance is high that although China's influnce of Bitcoin pricing through China's trader is going to cease, mining will remain and grow. High chance that will see lots of bitcoins "made in China" soon. So the direction is CHINA-> CRYPTO (here the greater-than symbol means produce and export, not control). When that happens, China still have 'influnce' on the price if you believe in the pricing model that Bitcoin market price homes mining cost. I put a quotation mark on 'influnce' because it is superfacial: even if China produces most new coins, the mining cost is not directly based on electricity cost in China - it's a long topic on its own.

No matter Chinese mine or not, 3600 bitcoin will be produced everyday. "Made in China" or "Made in Antarctica" is totally irrelevant.

The mining cost and the cost forming mech has no influnce on pricing because Bitcoin is limited to 3600/day? Market traders/speculators, the demand side decides the price, and producing side's cost have no influnce, you really think so, right?

"Made in China" is different than "Made in Antarctica", because the cost structure is different - China externalize the mining cost to the people and over-investment in northern power facilities (through the bribed cheap/free energy), while Antarctica the specialty is lack of cooling cost - for which Finland is good enough.

Follow up reasoning after every random guy's cursory conclusion is inefficient. I'll not take another bait.

Traditional supply and demand theory could not apply to bitcoin mining.

In the case of gold mining, if the market price of gold drops below the cost, most inefficient miner will stop production. This will decrease the amount of gold produced, so the price will increase again.

If the price of gold skyrockets, miners will produce more gold, even with very inefficient way (e.g. extracting gold from sea water). The price will then decrease.

In the case of bitcoin mining, if the market price of bitcoin drops below the cost of mining, most inefficient miner will also stop production. However, this WON'T decrease the amount of bitcoin produced.

On the other hand, if the price of bitcoin is high enough, even GPU could be profitable again. However, this has no effect in the supply of bitcoin.

So yes, the cost of bitcoin mining is (to some extent) not very important to the price of bitcoin.

Also, it seems you argue that bitcoin mining in China is more efficient. If this has any effect on bitcoin's price, I'd say bullish as Chinese miners won't need to sell much bitcoins to cover the cost, and these miners are the people who won't give a shit to CCP's propaganda.

I love it this way, when I beg for critical talk there are critical talkers in the party:) Let me turn your conclusion into a new question that provoke more thinking:


The mining cost relationship to Bitcoin has been discussed multiple times. For example, April 2014 mining cost is at $528 coins, close to the price and may influnced it - could be behind the 15th April rally, to return to the right price. It seems the most popular theory is that mining cost grows after bitcoin price, and holds a bottom before the next wave of Bitcoin price rally. So bitcoin demand drives mining cost on the way up, and mining cost decide Bitcoin price on the way down. I lean towards this popular idea.


'efficient' is perhaps better replaced with 'externalized'. Now: Suppose the Chinese miners, inefficient as they may be, got free energy (Guanxi again) and produce more coins, since they compete with the world for production, the more they produce, the less the rest of the world can do. Now suppose they hold the coins, only selling a part of it to cover the cost, let's not consider the pressure they cause by selling the coins, but look at the competitor in Antarctica. The Antarctica guy find it is harder to generate a coin, and each coin they generate costs higher. So the Chinese does not have to sell all his coins to influnce price, because the downward price's bottom is decided by the Antarctica guy who has to sell most of his coins to cover the cost. Therefore, instead of worrying Chinese fire-sales driving down the bitcoin price, the opposite happens: that Chinese cheap coins drivers up the difficulty and thus the cost of average coins worldwide.

Now let's go on this direction further, consider competition between the Chinese ourselves: eventually it will drive up the cost of coinage that makes Antarctica miner stop producing coins. Suppose eventually only Chinese and those who externalize the cost (let someone else pay) produce coins. So the cost of coins, the 'list price' to the world will be higher than the cost of coins actually produced at all. The question is: will the bottom price be held by the list price, the supposed cost of minting a coin, or it will be held by the actual cost, the money Chinese has to spent to mint each coin? A more interesting question is, whether or not this follow the cold rule of math or mentality of miner business owners?

This is what I mean by saying 'the mining cost is not directly based on electricity cost in China':

Bolded: If true, this could mean something. Can you elaborate? Have the exchanges said this? Why would the Chinese trust the exchanges that much?

I said the situation more than 1 month ago, no one asked me to explain why. Seems I got more thinker-reader now.

The Chinese do not trust the exchanges that much, but they trust their own computer less, and they have no confidence nor skill to use western-produced 'wallets' neither. I was there when the community talk about it, one trader said he transferred money to his own wallet and thinks who he is to guard his wealth when exchanges can fortify the guard, so he transferred it back to the exchanges. Another said he uses wallet, and people say "oh it's just another way to fool yourself, after all its on your computer and can be hacked", in general people nod towards the guy who transferred back to exchanges, and the people say to the wallet user: "you must be a geek who can guard your computer, we are not, so we cannot follow your suggestion."

 And many do not know the difference between wallet and trading account.

And one exchange CEO said to me in person that his company keep failing convincing users to use their own wallet. "I said to my client in person, because he is a million-dollar investor, that he should use a wallet, so that each time he withdraw he use the same address, no delay, no human check and audit. He said 'NO I can't, because the other exchange I use generate a new address each time I choose deposite, and I had to avoid putting all money in one exchange.' - in the end I did not convince him to use a wallet."

Reguarding to why Chinese don't trust his own computer, that costs an article to explain the root, but if you live here you know it is true. The Chinese are confident that Baidu, 360 and all these Chinese companies have our computer's data, we tolerated this for years, because we (Chinese) weight less for personal space / privacy. In the west standard, it seem as if we don't fight for privacy at all, and in Chinese standard we perhaps already spent more than necessary to fight for privacy. Then, a critical use case appears, leaving traders no solution. There is no way a Chinese wallet software can gain the trust needed to be more popular than exchanges, even more unlikely for a western one (Amory / electrium) - because despite we hussle our own people more often, we tend to believe that the West are worse hustlers. FYI I personally use Electrim on Ubuntu. I hope the recent collapse of FxBTC change the situation a bit.

This was quite valuable information. Thanks. It could explain that the number of bitcoin-addresses has not increased as much as expected lately. And - the Chinese must get their finger out, and start using personal wallets.

congratulation,OP!

We know that Alonzo, but please do understand that Mr Zhang is telling Mr Yip Yip truths that he doesn't want to hear!

It is only reasonable that Mr Yip Yip screams obscenities in Mr Zhang's ear isn't it?

How else can Mr Yip Yip make the nasty facts he doesn't want to hear go away?

That is quite interesting, as China was quite welcome here back in winter 2013. People here are not willing to take the good with the bad, they live in some kind of fantasy world where everything must be positive.

What is your specific complaint? Former allies turn into enemies all the time.

And the negative gleaned over, ignored, and/or attacked?

Is this Fantasy world the USA?


Perhaps his complaint is the inherent ability of the mainstream here to acknowledge that there is two sides to every coin, and then act in total surprise, shock, disgust, when the coin it is ultimately revealed to them that the coin did indeed have two sides.

That it's hypocritical to ignore bad news and say people shouldn't post them while doing the opposite with good news from the same source.

Also, this isn't war. When you speculate on Bitcoin, are you thinking of enemies and allies? :D :D :D

Yes he is.

He is long with a cost average of $800 or something. To him, this is a very personal battle and it would be to me also if I were in his shoes. But I aint cos I never drunk the Kool-Aid.

War is always about some form of resources. Money is how we trade resources in the modern world. Bitcoin could very easily become worth more than any one nations money supply, le states included. So yes, this is war.

So where's your army, cultist?

Me, I think I prefer looking at things as they are and not being the shill/propagandist for one side as the other in your "war". I much prefer doing well for myself rather than being a heroic soldier being sent off to death. :D