Bitcoin Forum

This is how I will be placing my bets. Remember this is speculation, so nothing I write is written in stone, just my intuition.

I watched yesterday how tens of thousands of bitcoins were sold, with the obvious goal of lowering the price below $5.00.

Even with these huge amounts being sold into the walls, somebody with huge pockets does not want the price to fall below $5.00.

I have seen it attacked multiple times recently. Every sell attack is always stopped, and then counterattacked with almost as strong bid walls, and driving the price right back to high $5's.

I speculate that somebody has bought probably 100,000 coins yesterday trying to keep the price above $5.00.

It seems that this person has almost unlimited funds and he has decided he does not want the price to fall below $5.00. I think this is because he probably owns hundreds of thousands of bitcoins, and is deeply invested at this point.

After seeing the last attempt fail, and then a quick rebound in price, with strong bidwalls again, I knew we hit a floor at about $5.6.

I knew today we would probably see rally, and when I checked the price later today, we did have a rally. 

At this poing, it is a very safe bet in my opinion to buy right now as you have the backing of somebody deeply invested and will not let the price fall.

I just loaded my money into mt. gox, and will be betting on a rebound to come shortly. I of course will have my stop losses set around 5.00, as if we fall below $5.00, then all hell will break loose and this manipulator can't hold or decided not to keep the price floor in check.

why dose everyone think its just one guy....

in any case buying sooner rather then later is a good idea.

Your assuming hes not going to dump lot the lot at some stage. Its a trap.

It very well can be a trap, that is why you should have a stop loss in there.

I think at this point there is more of a chance of it going higher at this point. Especially considering you probably have that $5.6 floor.

so the odds are in your favor to buy right now.

I like divining the strategies of various nebulous entities.

I am pretty sure that the first counter rally after the first drop was made by just one guy using bots - it was too regular and too quick.  The counter push after the second drop was also quite probably made by just one guy - it was also pretty regular.  All the rest does not seem to be the effect of one guys actions.  Of course if someone is already using bots - then he could easily hide his moves behind more randomized offers and it makes you think why he did not - but maybe this is over-calculating.

Unless you consider the great comeback of our dear star friend.

There's no need to speculate on this data: https://i.imgur.com/9oswl.png
In last 24h 50k BTC was bought in 3795 trades

It's all fine until that one guy decides that it is time to realize profits.

nobody is dumb enough to do that right before it rallies back to $7.xx :P

I don't know. I don't have such huge pockets but if it falls below 5.6 or so (3.6 pounds really, depends on the pound/dollar exchange too) I get me some coins. I'm quite confident in the future mid-term and I plan to have some coins as I have use for them. I have 0 debt and disposable income to put into it every time it gets within this range. I don't think we will see it there again when coin creation rate goes down to 25 per block, unless the project simply fails. So this year I will basically buy as many as I can afford in this range, the lower they go the merrier for me.

Holy shit, a bullish Edward? What’s going on here?

LOL... it's almost like that day proudhon flip-flopped.

I really am lost now.

I don't think it was because one guy took a stand against the price drop, but rather people didn't go into panic sell mode after those massive bitcoin dumps on the market. From my perspective, that stand against the dump by the bitcoin market as a whole is what makes a strong case for the short term bitcoin price rise.

Long term is very bullish from technical perspective. From a more practical perspective, as bitcoin is about the concept of money itself, long term survival of bitcoin is still very much a big open question. But lets not worry about that. Bitcoin is safe for at least couple of years.

^^

I am only bullish because the manipulation is very easy at the current price level and volume of bitcoins. Somebody with a few million dollars can have no trouble controlling the market.

I think it was in the "the money makers" who said that anything that can be made scarce and quantity controlled can be manipulated. Even gold can be manipulated.

Bitcoins, with its very small volume, and especially very small volume being actively traded can be very easily controlled and manipulated.

I originally underestimated the extent to which bitcoins can be manipulated. I did this because I did not think somebody with a few million dollars would be trading.

That is why I think currently it is a safe bet, especially considering somebody with large runds was able to buy hundred of thousands of dollars worth of bitcoins, just to protect the price from falling. He is not going to let his current investment go to shit.

SO we are gambling with what looks to be a nice floor, so your upwards potential is very high here. The odds at winning this gamble is in your favor if you put a stop loss in about $5.00.

So if there is The Manipulator, Edward50 is The Manipulated.  ;D

For that very reason, IMO, it is good to have the early adapters keeping millions of bitcoins away from the exchanges. To prevent people with a lot of money controlling the bitcoin supply.

A sure sign of the apocalypse; I'd better sell everything I have, because when sentiments on this subforum become this bullish things often seem to go the other way. LOL

You make a very good point. This is what worries me. I have not placed any bets yet LOL.

Only one other time did I recommend buying and selling in the short term, and right after I did that the price fell pretty dramatically.

What I can't understand is that it looks like sombody wants it known that the $5.6 price range won't be taken down.

By doing this it is like someone saying you can play blackjack, and any losses you take we will pay you the money. So you will only gain money. This is what this obvious price floor is showing.

I would think that the person putting in this price floor is paying a price for showing everybody that he has put a price floor in, but is he?

Either way it looks like we have a pretty stable price floor, so your really only betting on the price rising from this point. Place your stop losses, and enjoy the ride up. If it rides down then just sell your coins back.

Strongly disagree!
When early adopters (or anyone) keeps their BTC out of the market, then that means inciting SCARCITY. That way the available BTC can easily be bought and prices are more vulnerable to large trades.

@ others: What would happen if prices take a downturn and the bullipulator decides to sell all his BTC aquired while keeping the BID wall up only to reinvest once prices have dropped?

a 'big' move is coming given how close the daily MACD is to crossing on the neutral line and how close the weekly MACD is to crossing up past the neutral line. Either a massive amount of selling happens like now or we are going to be hitting new highs and fast come the next couple of weeks to months because of basic technical analysis.

+1 Im new to TA but that what my crystal ball says too.  :)

So be ready for the fall... or the boom.

If you put a stoploss at $5 what would you do if you hade huge pockets?
I would cause a crash down below $5.

Buy the coins from those who panic.

this.

no

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD

Not only do you have to move the price to "manipulate" MACD you have to move the price over a long enough period of time to see it reflected in a moving average

it is true that I have no idea of what I'm talking about, but I'm really surprised that someone would actually notice it

I think the basic point is that if any of the obvious indicators like MACD or RSI had any predictive power for trades, someone would take advantage of it and they would stop being meaningful. I don't subscribe blindly to the EMH, but when there's a whole community of people drawing funny lines over charts and making simplistic arguments that the market is therefore going up or down, I know what I would be doing if I had a lot of money to throw at bitcoin.

I hope everyone did this?  ;D

The 5.6 floor will not be broken!

No reason to really even put in a stop loss.

You took it too exact, when I say 5.6 will not be broken, it may dip below 5.6, but it will very fast be right back above 5.6.

The manipualtors need time to push it back up.

Back over 5.6 again.

It is futile to try and push the bitcoin price below that point.

Yea. Pity the banks are closed on the weekend.  ;D

Lulz.

Waiting for my funds to be available so I can buy some more :D

Yea Ive already bought a few. Not going in too deep just yet though.

Fuck it.  I'm jumping back in.

Dude, are you me? 61.8% retracement is 4$, we have absolutely overdone it in terms of length and severity of the crash. People are scared shitless at the moment. I am, too.

Reversal (at least short term) will be had. Short squeeze, sup!

More downside? Why aren't rallies so aggressive too?

I had my bids at 4.40-4.50 to catch spikes overnight.  So looks like I'm back in, I wouldn't buy (much)now if it weren't for that though. I expect it will rally back to 5 soon, and we'll see where it goes from there.

Yea banks are open again & I suspect there will be a few buyers eager to get some cheap bitcoins. ;D

Still not safe to buy in. 4.8 held and now we're heading down again (4.55 atm). How far? Let's see :).

because it becomes more and more expensive to sustain them

Ive increased my position before I get starfished outa the game  ;D

Talking about the starfish - I saw one on the BUY side yesterday.

Do you mean the sell side?  The star has been on the buy side for a week.

Yep, and it returned on the buy side after the price went up to 4.8. It's gone now, but it's an indicator that many people are long now, more than people who are short.

Couldn't this be a function of allowing people to deposit bitcoin and use it for leverage?  My guess is the majority of people fucking around on bitconica are doing it with bitcoin deposits, which means there's always plenty of BTC to use for shorts; but there's not as many people depositing dollars and so not a comparable amount of money to use for longs.  Does that make sense?

Yes, it also can signal that there is more BTC than USD deposited in. BUT the starfish wouldn't come up unless there is considerable amount of positions in certain way, to deplete the other reserves (in this case, USD).

Either way, even if we should break to the upside now (which I currently find unlikely), the starfish will come up and stop the rally.

The big conspiracy. Someone has a virtually unlimited amount of money, but is afraid of the price dropping below 5 USD because he loses money?

With all this entails... Yeah, I am pretty sure it's exactly like that!  ;)

lol

Ha ha ha! It's an interesting idea. And an interesting herb!  :D :D ::)

What could possibly go wrong  ;D

I know I shouldn't be talking about this, but the world has got to know! I heard Longistan has infiltrated the Vatican. They have a huge top secret mining farm there!

The US is sending reconnaissance drones, but they can't see anything because it's all in their top secret underground bunker. Oh, oh and they are even trying to change the climate with a top secret super weapon so that the world freezes to cool their GPUs.

Overall they try to enslave the mankind by hypnotizing them with GPU fans that turn them into mindless zombies working in their Bitcoin mines.

Are you saying the Manipulator is the Pope??? Wait till Edward gets a hold of that!

Shush! We are being watched.