Bitcoin Forum

Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000

analyses never ends

I really do believe it is possible. I don't think it is the most possible scenario though, not in the very near future.
I'd be already happy with a 10th of that :)

I don't think bitcoin will ever reach 1 million dollars in the future, it can reach perhaps 100000$ but I don't see how it can go higher.

Maybe if the US Dollar ha hyper inflation, otherwise not in any one who is alive today's lifetime.

If the price of BTC was $1,000,000 then the market cap of BTC would be greater then the US economy (as it is today).

I can give more comparisons including hypothetical calculations of growth of GDP, however this is simply unrealistic.

Here's to another thread in which people subjectively evaluate the mature value of bitcoin based on their limited mental capacity without doing the heavy mental lifting.

"I don't see how bitcoin can go any higher than X"

 ::)

You know what, this threads are annoying.
But I kind of sympathize: most of use are quite "alone" as bitcoiners irl, and we all hope to see it get to great hights. So I guess it's normal to come to this forum and try to hear what you wish to hear :)

It's unlikely it will hit $10 000. Sure, under a hyperinflationary scenario, should/when it happens, when a loaf of bread will cost $300, bitcoin can hit a million, but who would care about dollars then.

http://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2013/12/10/bitcoin%E2%80%99s-evolution-will-be-swift.html

it can easily reach a million and possibly even more.

Ah, the uber-bullish articles after the November bubble :)
I wouldn't say "easily" to any scenario that puts btc at 1000000 though.

Given it rose from $2 to $1k in 2 years, a rise of 500%, if a linear extrapolation was applied, ignoring circumstances, then $600 per BTC would rise to $300k in mid 2015. Only 2.5 rise after that to get to $1M.

As for scenarios to rise price that quick, there are a lot on this forum including;
1. adoption for multinational corps transferring wealth across borders
2. 1st world population adoption by the shopping public to avoid institutional fees (bank fees)
3. 3rd world population adoption as easier than establish 1st world style infrastructure
4. Govts, like Canada (see their crypto-experiment), go of paper fiat to fully digital currencies.

So as for the question of $1M being plausable, yes, but over what time frame, I would like to think within another 5 years.

So if bitcoin reaches 1,000,000 million, there can be a max number of 21 million of bitcoin millionaires, i dont know how many millionaires are already outhere but its ok.
Being in the IT field and having worked for a credit card processor and many large merchants, I can tell you that the existing system is WAY overdue for a revolution.

It'll never hit that in our lifetime. It would crash more than likely than doing that.

Very doubtful. Too many whale bots out there with sell orders. Right now would like to see something above $680.

about 14 million

and about 1500 billionaires.

that would be pretty awesome. i present to you the new innovative billionaires

It's hard to say exactly when the pendulum will swing the other way. For now, I am in the mid-long term "up up up" camp. But I could easily see the tippity top being in the 5 or 6 figures, and not making it to a million.

Not before a period of huge economic growth or hyper-inflation.

Assuming 21 million bitcoin in circulation and a price of one million dollars for one bitcoin then the market cap of Bitcoin would be 21 thousand trillion dollars. As per google the current GDP of the world is ~98 trillion dollars today.

The only way it will reach anywhere near 1 million dollars is due to hyperinflation.

The price of btc will likely crash several times in our lifetime, as will the prices of most other investments.

The only way that bitcoin could ever reach $1M, would be with hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar, loss of a significant amount of bitcoin, or if Bitcoin replaced national currencies, which seems unlikely. Even overtaking credit card processors, wouldn't put us there, really.

EDIT:
Post 1K...
Didn't even notice.

Yes. Perhaps in decades or centuries and hyperinflation doesn't need to occur for it to happen.
Or it goes to zero.
I believe both things are possible and other things in the middle are probable.

Right now we are mining about 1,314,000 bitcoins per year. At a $million each, miners would be selling over a $trillion dollars worth of coins per year to cover mining costs. This would exert tremendous down pressure on the price of bitcoin. After two more halvings, say in 2021, mining pressure will drop to a little over a quarter $trillion per year, and by 2025, this would be only $164 billion dollars downward pressure per year if bitcoins were a $million each.

The last time I checked, we spent over $40 billion mining for gold per year. The federal deficit is over a $trillion per year now, and ultimately this must be printed and dilutes the value of the dollar. Also, the remittance market is around $500 billion per year. These are all positive for Bitcoin.

So maybe after 2025, a bitcoin might reach $1 million per year. I think this is reasonable. In the short run though, I expect prices to peak around $100k each before 2020, then slowly work their way up to a $million each.

It is possible that even the majority of us optimists are totally underestimating bitcoin. What if metcalfe's law applies to Bitcoin and it's value is ultimately proportional to the square of the number of unique transactions/addresses used per day? If that is the case, then I predict that Bitcoins market cap will find a maximum below this due to mining costs/rewards. It also means that future generations will be able to expect the value of their bitcoins to at least double every four years. Eventually though, as the mining reward continues to drop, a bitcoin might exceed a $billion dollars in value. Imagine, you could buy a decent meal for less than a satoshi.

The last paragraph that I wrote sounds so bizarre & ludicrous to even me with my vivid imagination, that I strongly suspect something will happen to divert bitcoin from that path. Maybe a more efficient altcoin will take over.

No, because of market selling assholes, we can't have nice things.

I realistically think bitcoin will hit $2,000 to $10,000 in 5 years; possibly even 30,000 USD per coin.

Speculators and investors need to think of bitcoin as a global currency; not an isolated country or continent's currency.  It is a global currency for a global market and the world market is worth several trillion USD.  Keywords: Trillion USD Global market.


We are just barely entering the path to a 1T market.

Can you eli5 please? Who is an asshole exactly? :D

Mann, imagine how many bitcoin millionaires bitcoin reaching 1m would create. I would be one....

Dumb jerks.
Why would someone do it, it's bad for them!
Glad this round didn't last too long...

Delusional if anyone think bitcoin will hit 1,000,000.

Why not load up now if anyone think it will be the case?

Hi, I believe it, why?

1. 12.889.125 BTC today in circulation.
2. Market cap of 7.924.272.834$
3. Price of Bitcoin is 614.80$

If Market cap will be 1000x than now, price of Bitcoin will be 614.800$

And it is not difficult !

NO I don't I do believe it may hit and stay around $25,000 or so because it is being accepted at more and more stores and on line retailers everyday  I also think one day that bitcoin will not be the dominant coin either I think one day they will come up  with a coin that is much widely except and takes less then 20 seconds to do a transaction with which means that all the ATM's and Credit and Debit machines will except it and it being inflation proof meaning a certain amount of coins and that's it I think that coin will be the one that goes to 150,000 and stayes per coin and if fiat currency go to hell then you may see a crypto coin go to 1,000,000 but that would take a lot like a worst great depression then the last one.

No, it would be 21 trillion dollars because 21 million * 1 million = 21 trillion. Which is what I'd expect to see if Bitcoin replaced the fiat currency of every country in the world. That means no USD. No JPY. No GBP. That is pretty much the best case scenario for Bitcoin and the only way it will ever reach $1 million per coin.

If Bitcoin reached a status similar to gold however, then it would be worth about $333,333 per coin.

It's possible, if :

1. Huge inflation USD
2. All people accept bitcoin  8)

Ok...imagination ON
After certain point in future, when BTC acceptance is spread enough, fiat will start to dissapear as noone will want to use it. It will become exactly what it is now, useless piece of paper that noone wants. Some short time before that point, 1 BTC will be worth 1,000,000 dollars, but it wont stop there, it will continue to slide (value of fiat) that it will become 1000000000 etc. untill it becomes 0 as noone will want ANY fiat whatsoever.
So comapring BTC to $$$ after certain point is useless. Like comparing BTC to dirt. What would you say, how much dirt does 1 btc cost? 1 kilo? 10000 kilo?...it's 0 as noone will sell any BTC for dirt..ther's enough of it around.
If BTC gets to 1m per coin, fiat as we know it will dissapear adn you wont be able to compare those two.
Imagination OFF

Some ppl are underestimating Bitcoin bigtime!

When fiat hits the fan within 5-10 years + mass adoption= will drive the price for 1 BTC above $1.000.000.

Again, plz dont underestimate the power of BTC.

Don't you think some alts would become also important?
Maybe different coins will have different advantages and people will trade between them.

There will always be some kind of market for alt-coins, but they are just feeding off of the innovation of Bitcoin and really do not add anything of value to the table. 

A better question might be is How much do you think bitcoin prices will go up compared to the value of the dollar on june 13,2014   It could go up to trillions theoretically if the dollar's value dropped enough. It wouldn’t mean much as far as the value.

Steve

If it does we will be paying $150 for a loaf of bread so we will certainly need our million dollar bitcoins!

It's unlikely it will hit $10 000. Sure, under a hyperinflationary scenario, should/when it happens, when a loaf of bread will cost $300, bitcoin can hit a million, but who would care about dollars then.

Totally agree with that! It is very possible that BTc hit 10000$, but in my opinion it will be a consecutive bubble and it will go back to 1000$. But right now i am seeing big drop to 300-400 for some weeks. Only my opinion..
BR
Gondel

Over the long run the return on bitcoin will likely greatly exceed the rate of inflation

It will likely and has done much better then that.

But it still having the same real value than today don't it ?

1 current Bitcoin / 650 valuable dollars   =   1 future Bitcoin / 1 000 000 useless green bills

...

I do not think that it is necessary for the dollar to crash in order for BTC to reach many thousands of dollars each.  A million dollars each (no hyperinflation)?  Ahh, well I don't know enough to offer a good opinion.

Gold will likely do very well too.  As the "paper gold" burns, the real (physical gold in your own possession) will likely do very well.

Gold and BTC compliment each other very well.  Maybe we will see both knocking on $55,000...

 :)   :)

I think to see $1000 or a bit more by the end of the year is more likely.

In reality we all do not know.  Is it possible?  I would say yes.  Going from pennies to over a $1000 per coin is a bigger jump than going from $650 to $1,000,000.  So why not?  But we do not know how wide spread the adoption will be yet. 

All this said, my advice to anyone and everyone is to at least hold 1 BTC for 10 years or so to find out!!  ;D

Why is that?

Going to $1000 required hundreds of millions, perhaps a couple of billions of $$$ of buying support (only some part of Bitcoins has been for sale, not the whole market cap), which could be done by a relatively small group of enthusiasts (thousands of tech geeks and tech savvy small investors).

Going to $1000 000 will require hundreds of billions up to trillions of $$$. Where would that kind of money come from?

Where would the money come from?  Wall Street ETF's, large companies adopting it, use world-wide, just to name a few things.

My point is that the order of magnitude from pennies to $1000 is less than $650 to $1,000,000 so in theory it should be possible.  But yes, it will take more cash but there are way more players in the game too.

I am not that optimistic. Large investment funds are regulated by governments, there are strict rules what they can invest in, I don't believe they will ever be allowed to invest in crypto currencies, because crypto currencies is a direct enemy to governments' fiat currencies. Don't overestimate that California governor's legislation, that law doesn't mean investment funds are allowed to invest into Bitcoin, far from it.

Large companies selling stuff for Bitcoins sell Bitcoins back for cash which they need to cover their expenses, so they are a non-event.

China has the largest savings rate in the world, but China banned Bitcoin, and the western world's savings rate is negative, meaning there are more debts than savings. India, another country with a high savings rate, loves gold on their women, they won't embrace Bitcoin on a large scale either.

So I just don't see where that kind of demand would come from. The only way it can go to $1 mln. is a hyperinflationary scenario, but that million wouldn't go a long way in that scenario.

I think it is possible and in a short time frame, why

well the shear amount of money wasted by GOV and BANKS every day is staggering and easily $21 T a year or over a few years.

This much value is left on the table and BTC can catch most of it.

The only caveat being it may not be BTC that does it rather and Alt like PeerCoin or NXT may do it in the long run (re my formative views on mining).

5 years out from now I would not be surprised to see BTC in the 300K ~ 1 M range. In fact I would be more suprised if it was not in this range.


Further you wont "see" hyper inflation, rather you wages will continually drop versus cost of living, while the bare minimum, will be just affordable. Case in point we are already in hyper inflation its just your used to it. BTC is holding value and eating GOV/Banking waste.

What do government budgets have to do with Bitcoin and how can Bitcoin catch that money exactly? Not to mention that most governments' budgets are in deficit, the expenses cuts are under way on most urgent social needs and those cuts provoke social unrest. Of course, a lot of bureaucracy could be shrinked, but you must be out of your mind to think it would be shrinked and that money spent on Bitcoin. On what planet do you guys live? Governments don't work that way ;D Crypto currencies are direct enemies of fiat, make no mistake, this flirting with 'allowing' crypto currencies in some 'liberal' western countries is just that, flirting. They will ban it overnight if the need arises.

your maths is way out

1T = 10^12

21M = 21*10^6

21M * 1M = 21^6*10^6 = 21*10E^12 = 21T

not 21 10^24 which is the fugure you gave 21 thousand trillion, rather you only need 21T.

Also remeber that BTC is buying power not GPD and GPD accumulates ever year so over 10 years you have 980T. 21T buying power in that is very doable, only about 5%.

and no.

NXT and Peercoin are quite different to BTC, even Ripple is quite different (though has a serious UNL issue)

We already have 13,000,000.  I guess I don't understand your question. 

If inflation occurs and or long in the future when were about to die or have already died
Say 60 to 80 years from now that said probably not
Unless we count in a weak currency

During Wiemar hyperinflation, gold price in term of the currency went off the roof.

The value of bitcoin really depend on the  policy maker of US. If congress do something stupid, of course it will btc will go to 1,000,000.

Then $1,000,000 is guaranteed! ;)

For bitcoin to NOT reach $1m, it would have to fail, AND the USD would have to not die in hyperinflation... neither are likely to occur IMO.

Short of government intervention, security flaw, or out of control centralized mining, I believe it will.

There's about 14 million millionaires in the world, as i mentioned earlier

there's only 21 million bitcoins around.

obviously there will never be even 21 million persons who hold a whole bitcoin

therefore we can assume if bitcoin becomes popular, and because it's so limited, that there will never be many people that own a whole bitcoin. Probably like 100.000 or even less persons will own a full bitcoin.

So, in that sense, owners of a full bitcoin will be several times more wealthy than current day millionaires.

With that logic, a bitcoin could even be worth many times more than a million, maybe even 100 million. It might sound extremely weird but it could happen.

Rising population, USD steadily down forever, and fixed number of Bitcoins in mind means $1,000,000 is an irrelevant figure, because in 100 years that could be nothing.

So yes, eventually, even if it takes 3,000 years, once 1,000,000 is worthless I can see no reason how it can't happen.

If I were forced to guess when it happens, I'd say around 2020 is the earliest it can happen.

Technology innovation also happen fast. If bitcoin do hit 1,000,000, it may not stay there for long as incentive is strong for someone to come up with something better.

I agree completely.  In fact, I'd say GDP isn't even the best comparison.  It's probably more like global money supply M2.  I believe that's about 68 trillion dollars.  So by my back-of-the-napkin calculation, we're probably looking at around $32,000 for every 1% of money supply BTC represents. Frankly, it doesn't seem likely that BTC would get anywhere NEAR 1% of global money supply with all the entrenched interests dependent on fiat.  I don't even see how it could get to 1% of USD money supply, or $5300, in terms of real value.

Of course, price doesn't always reflect value.  And as we keep juicing the USD money supply, this is subject to change.  I'd suspect that it's possible if not probable that BTC could eventually cross over $5300 or even $32,000, but without massive, massive adoption and hyperinflation, it's hard to see how it could stay there.  Eventually price and value probably converge. 

This is true to some extent, but for bitcoin to reach 7 figures, it would have to be pretty well entrenched in society/commerce. I think there is a good chance we get there, but it's hard to say when the pendulum will swing back, and when we'll have topped out for good.

sure, when it will be something only old and rich collectors will be looking for

Why? It's divisible. If you're only using .00001s or .0000001s, BTC is still useful -- I imagine at that point, transaction fees will be much lower. I don't see why BTC can't be accessible still.

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost

Just because it seems "ridiculous" does not mean it isn't possible.  ;)  Many people thought $1000 a coin was a ridiculous price and it would never get there.

Hi all,

I have recently decided to invest in Bitcoins which was based upon a lot of research to get my head around the concept etc.

This was my conclusion. (very over simplified )

Its finite in size and thus deflationary (21m coins by 2040)

The method behind how they are created (mined), the security etc looks very strong and stable.

The currency is 'Owned & Controlled' for want of a better word by the whole community as opposed by a few i.e. The Fed.

The existing banking system is very complex, has taken years to build and is very expensive to maintain which means there are a lot of people who get a slice of the action. For example. A few years back I wanted to do some work in Poland from UK. The overall cost was circa £200,000 and included supplying equipment. The wall had just fallen and this transaction was risky which meant we jumped through a lot of hoops including guaranteed methods of payment. Cryptocurrency resolves that thus fees are negligible.

What does this mean is: Its simple.. its cheaper, quicker, faster, easier than traditional methods.

Ok so i then looked at global digital trade. All it takes is for main players to adopt the currency (ebay etc) and then it gains credibility amongst the masses.

It also means that a humble farmer in the outbacks of Africa or South America, with no normal banking network, could actually trade. All he needs is a wallet and a phone and a network connection.

My simple conclusion was.. the emerging markets will love it and adopt it whilst the Old Guard (The Fed, Bank of England, EEC ) will scream about a lack of regulation when what they really mean is they cant control it. Just a reminder, the latest global recession was all down to Bankers having control and manipulating for their own benefit!

So, if I have got this right then adoption will secure the currency whilst rate of adoption will affect inflation from the commodity perspective.

So this is the maths I came up with assuming you take all people from the globe as opposed to those only holding US $.

Current Cap circa $8 billion
Current Bitcoins Mined circa 12.5M
Max Bitcoins to be mined 21M by circa 2040

I then decided that 15M would be in circulation by 2018 which was how far i wanted to look forward regarding growth potential

After doing a lot of educated guessing i decided that a realistic Cap, if all goes well, would be $800 billion

This would value the bitcoin at $53,333.

So, in conclusion, if the bitcoin, in 2040 hit 1M then the market cap would be 21 Trillion. This also assumes that it is the only real cryptocurrency in existence and the others, lite, Doge etc do not have any real market Cap

If it does get anywhere near 1M then it would also mean that the FIAT based banking industry will have shrunk enormously as it would no longer be generating the high (relatively) transaction fees it needs in order to survive...

So the real question is "Will the powerful few controlling the financial sectors really allow this to happen or will they just work out how to end up owning the cryptocurrencies because they are here to stay.


My predicition is that 100,000 is very optimistic but achievable in the next 10 years. 50,000 could come along within 3/4 years though if it all comes together

P.S  since I decided to invest i have just read that the Winklevoss twins predict $800B cap market to be realistic and Draper bought the Silk road auctioned bitcoins to underwrite cryptocurrency in the 3rd world.

No stopping progress!!!

Why don't you look at it this way.

Once all the BTC is mined there will be 21,000,000 BTC in circulation.

If one BTC is worth $1 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 million

If one BTC is worth $100 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $2.1 Billion

If one BTC is worth $1,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 Billion

If one BTC is worth $100,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 trillion

If one BTC is worth $1,000,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 Trillion.

As of 2012 the GDP of the US was ~15 trillion dollars and the GDP of the world was ~46 Trillion

Does it still seem plausible for bitcoin to reach $1,000,000?

Fixed.

bitcoin disciplines central banks/gov economic policy, because now you can store your value at time (t) in bitcoin.

eg, govt tax trillions each year and make stupid deleterious decisions that loose a good portion of that, and in the process devalue my money after tax. However my money after tax's value can now be stored in BTC and that cannot be inflated by Gov action anymore.

So as a rational actor where do I put my value?

This further occurs as BTC allows jurisdictional arbitrage on a scale undreamed of before. Accordngly bad BTC "regulation" will be disciplined by massive capital outflow.

Most millionaires don't keep all of their assets in fiat though. Most will have it spread between a house, car, stocks, other investments, and only a small amount will be kept as actual dollars in a bank.

in  Bretton Woods system  35dollar=1  ounce of gold
today   1320.90dollar=1  ounce of gold
government‘s cash printer never stop
the bitcion hit any price is possible 
but  i dont think is so quick  like 2013

Gold is tangible asset and central banks around the world use it to settle payment.

Bitcoin has not reached this stage nor will it likely to be payment settlement between countries.

I think $1 million is conceivable, for sure. But I'm not convinced that Metcalfe's Law is correct, and I think the growth rate will confound a lot of the bulls -- maybe even cause many to lose hope on the long road there.

Bitcoin is not digital dollars. It's digital gold that can be traded for anything else at will, plus a number of other benefits. It's better than gold and fiat combined, and comes with a network for moving it around.

maybe not 1 Mio but 10.000 or 40.000 , yeah possible. take a look at the stock from warren buffet  :P


but: you will not hold your bitcoin until its worth 1 mio , thats the bigger problem  ;)

Not rediculous if hyper-inflation occurs...viva le US peso?

We are always talking in todays purchasing power. Always.

US peso is already happening. As soon as China abandon it, it will be over.

Regardless, there is no rule that says each individual needs to hold at least one bitcoin, there are plenty of people today that have less then one bitcoin

Time will tell. I Want to Believe ;D

if so I will try not to sell my bitcoin now  ;D

Here's an idea, bear with me:

This wikipedia article claims that the world GDP is ~85 trillion as of 2012: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

Assuming that number is accurate - what if there's only 2.1 million coins available instead of 21 million? E.g. because most people will hold for very long periods of time, it's entirely possible that most of the value is concentrated in the number of coins being used for economic activity. Let's say only 10% of coins are "in play". Divide those 2.1 million by 1 billion people (smartphone users would be a good example) that have a need to use BTC for economic activity, and you have something like each person on average gets .0128 BTC. If BTC are 1 MM USD, then each person on average is responsible for 12,800 dollars of economic activity in BTC, with a market cap of 12.8 trillion USD. (Compared to the previous numbers 2.1 million coins available reduces this by a factor of 10x and the updated GDP halves it - with your numbers it's more like each person needs to
be responsible for 250K of economic activity in BTC).

This implies that the long term holders of bitcoin - people in the top 1% of ownership - will have a heavy incentive to cash out REALLY slowly (slow enough to maintain a nash equilibrium between new USDs going into BTC and their BTC cashing out to USD) - but they may not be able to coordinate well enough to maintain an equilibrium, causing a crash as the market gets flooded with BTC the first time someone cashes out hard and supply increases.

I think BTC can easily hit 1 million USD assuming it becomes 'the paypal of smartphones', and as long as finance + tech sector maintains interest in it - a broad base of users who small amounts of value, and a large group of whales in semi-collusion or at least who recognize their own self interest and won't crash the system for a while. The question is, can it stay at 1 MM USD for even more than a single femtosecond, and who's going to be making money off of the short trades and the exchange vig? ;)



The difference between

Don't think anyone really expecting 1M per coin. Even 5-10k per coin sound far fetch.

I'm thinking that most who have been involved in the BTC space for more than a year would not consider 5k-10k/coin far fetched.

IIRC the market cap @ $1000 was about $10 billion

I'm in the $1,000,000 camp. But I'm not unrealistic. It could take many, many years -- decades -- to get there. I'm patient. :)

What does GDP have to do with market cap?

There is 30 something trillion dollars in offshore bank accounts. How much in physical gold and silver? How about paper gold and silver? USD? EURO? 1m/btc would be easy if we reach universal adoption. Of course, you'll start to measure inflation (or deflation) by a basket of good purchased with btc... and measuring btcs value in fiat currency will be idiotic.

Nothing. Even in the most optimistic case of bitcoin taking over, you can not compute the value. You can not predict how large part of the value each actor has produced, he wants to have in reserve, in the form of value compressed into bitcoins.

You know, given the fact that his compressed value tokens are safe for plunder, an actor might want to have much more than now in reserve, consequently the value of all bitcoins might be larger than the current value of all fiat money.

wow, then you are a millionär and you can buy a bread for 30.000 USD each  :P

It will work well for those who have debt or use debt to finance their purchase on bitcoin.

http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130205035913/matrix/images/a/a8/There_is_no_Spoon.jpg

Instead of the price of bitcoin, think of the value beneath that a bitcoin represents. Through an algorithm and one of bitcoins many up and coming add-on's a single satoshi could represent a mansion on the coast while another single satoshi represents a penny in your pocket.

The bitcoin network, all the contracts, all the titles and deeds, the representations will weave themselves into everyone's everyday lives and therefore, eventually all of the wealth of the world would at one time or another be represented by transactions in the blockchain.

The question is, do you have bitcoin?

 :D :D :D :D :D

........ there is no spoon .......

 :D :D :D :D :D

Hmm. I agree with most of this as well as the subsequent posts, but I don't think GDP (actually GWP, gross world product) is completely unrelated to value of bitcoin. Mind talking me through this?

Of course we can't predict anything :) Even modeling BTC network growth is hard, and I'm a network nerd. Predicting BTC value is economics mixed with voodoo and I'm out of my depth there. But here's how I think GWP fits in (please correct me if I'm wrong, but go into detail!):

If a large number of people are holding long term, they're causing artificial scarcity for bitcoins. Assume that this takes a large number of BTC out of circulation for a decent amount of time. We've seen this with domain name squatters, we've seen it in the ip address black market, and we'll see it here - people like holding large swaths of imaginary numbers if they're scarce. *shrug*

The remaining available coins value will be in their utility to the people who are actually using them - either you're holding, or you're engaging in a transaction, right? Buying phone cards, sending remittances, gambling, silk road, those are all part of the GWP.

If the total value of these "utility coins" has to be more than the GWP  to hit 1 million, that still tells us not much I think :) But if  the value is a factor of the current world GWP, that's a more likely scenario than "GWP has to double and everyone has to use BTC for all transactions that contribute to GWP in order for the spot price to be 1 MM".

It's the difference between saying 25% of the world's population has to pay their rent at current market rates in BTC for a year in order for the spot price in BTC to hit 1 million that year vs 99% of the population has to pay for everything in BTC to hit 1 million. You can only subjectively say which is more likely, but the second scenario implies a LOT more effort and progress for BTC.

The point the original poster was making was that somehow there wasn't enough money around for BTC to hit 1MM, and for my part - if a few billion people all start buying their shitty 99c smartpone apps in satoshi, and then move on to paying their phone bills and other utilities through that same mobile wallet, I think that's the quickest way we get there. Smartphone users are projected to hit 5 billion in 2017.

Predicting what long term holders do is impossible, and I agree with your analysis there, but the people who will use bitcoin for some fraction of transactions made in their otherwise "normal" fiat lives must exist as a function of GWP, I can't see how they wouldn't. (Again, network geek heavy, econ lite, so be gentle ;) )

Well you can continue to talk about GDP or GWP or whatever, both are fundamentally unmeasurable, and have no relation to the value of money. The same goes for the fundamentally unmeasurable velocity.

And this ...

is totally absurd. There does not have to exist any money outside of bitcoin (although in the market, there always tend to be alternatives). And if there are alternatives, like fiat, and the demand to hold value in reserve in the form of money in total is fixed, less value to the alternatives just means higher value to bitcoin.

The value is decided in the market from the mind of the actors in the demand and supply. The market consist of pairs, where each bitcoin supplier decides that it is worth it to trade a number of coins for a number of someting else. And vice versa for the bitcoin buyer. You could say the supply is the absens of demand to have, compared to the other good.  What underlying reasons each actor has for his decision is unknown, maybe even for the individual actor himself. The urge to slush the money around doesnt give it any special value, only the demand to have or not to have.

And this ...

is totally absurd. There does not have to exist any money outside of bitcoin (although in the market, there always tend to be alternatives). And if there are alternatives, like fiat, and the demand to hold value in reserve in the form of money in total is fixed, less value to the alternatives just means higher value to bitcoin.

The value is decided in the market from the mind of the actors in the demand and supply. The market consist of pairs, where each bitcoin supplier decides that it is worth it to trade a number of coins for a number of someting else. And vice versa for the bitcoin buyer. You could say the supply is the absens of demand to have, compared to the other good.  What underlying reasons each actor has for his decision is unknown, maybe even for the individual actor himself. The urge to slush the money around doesnt give it any special value, only the demand to have or not to have.

[/quote]


I think this is reflecting a conflation of two questions in the original thread title - does BTC have a certain value vs. can you swap out BTC for a certain amount of USD.

And wait, GWP is fundamentally unmeasurable? That seems strange. If you believe it's fundamentally unimportant for this calculation, that's one thing, but you're saying that the sum total of world economic activity is something that we can't measure, or at least make an educated guess at within an order of magnitude, and that it's not a relevant economic indicator?

Here's a chart from the world bank measuring current world GDP: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD/countries/1W?display=grapht

Is the world bank lying to me? :)

Yes, they are neo keynesians. Their GWP measures GWP, not the world's production. Look into it. Apart from inaccuracies in the actual reporting of numbers from the field, it is also a question of what to include and what not to include. The broken window fallacy. They can have some fun with that number, and others, but history shows they are still in the fog.

A self taught armchair economist doubting people that have studied this subject all their life.  Hmm.   Who should is more credible ?😁

You don't know how I got my knowledge, nor my profession, nor the exact type of chair I prefer. I am certainly not interested in discussing things in the form of flinging names of professors around. If you guide your investments from what the best known and educated people around say, you would not have bitcoins yet.

Powerful fact. Academic type are so over hyped.

There is no spoon bitcoin.

Wait the world bank are professors? 

There's no reason to think GDP can't be measured.  Its been measured for a long time.  And last time I checked the World Bank is not neo-Keynesian, although some individuals may be

IMF policy is certainly NOT Keynsian.  They were the ones pushing for austerity to the eurozone.  Remember?

I'm not even talking about bitcoin here.  I'm the World Bank has more credibility than you when it comes to economics

Calling what they were pushing for "austerity" is akin to calling the website Obamacare created a "market".

You have to think a bit deeper. There is a reason why the money and debt supply has to continually expand, and that is to keep the current elites in power. It is really not possible to shrink the feds balance sheet, other than symbolically. Just think what the voter would say to higher taxes and lower public spending at the same time. Some intellectuals have taken it upon themselves to support the current leaders, and they get rewarded for it through the revolving doors. The Fed, the IMF and the world bank, the other money issuing banks are playing the same game. It is a global Department of Truth.

The argument above is not enough to falsify the current paradigm, it is only an argument for the possibility of a deception so big that the casual observer can not reveal it. The grandness of it makes it easier to belive by the public.

The arguments against the current paradigm is not the rewards, but the absurdities presented. These are things like - lifting the debt ceiling is not expansion of debt, - wars, real wars, not the puffs we currently perform, is needed to grow the economy, - the debt is no problem because of growth, - giving money to the banks trickles down to every american, - public spending of a dollar creates more than one dollar wealth, - taxing is productive, - advances in technology will fix it, - value of money has to go down, - forcing spending, not saving, creates wealth, - the dollar is stable, - the dollar has value because of warships.

And the metrics, everything is proved by metrics, no logic and reason necessary. Previously debunked theories resurfaces again and again. Words are reconstructed to mean the opposite.

To understand, you have to go to the basics, what is the laws governing the economic individuals actions, how does money and credt work. History is interesting to put some meat on it. There are lots of contrarian voices, you have to listen and verify the reasoning behind the arguments.

I don't wanna go off on a tangent.  But "conspiracy theory" is never an explanation for anything.  The simple reason for why monetary base expands because there is demand for it.  The capital market demands money so the money markets supply it.  No big secret about this

When it gets mainstream, oh yes i believe on it, i'm anxiously waiting for the Winklevoss prediction of 70k by 2017, if that happens then

everything would be possible...

Seriously doubt it...at least not within my lifetime!

I've been studying every damn article about bitcoin for the past 9 months and focusing on a macroeconomic level, $6000-$10000 is definitely realistic by the end of this year. If nothing else, just think about the ridiculous amount of infrastructure that currently being built for it AROUND THE GLOBE... its happening whether anyone likes it or not. (unless something completely drastic happens which no one can predict including me...)

With that said, I'm in the process of putting together a project to help facilitate mass adoption of Bitcoin. Let's hope I have something to show the community soon.

Yep the infrastructure and usability is a big factor in Bitcoin
Then you have the Buffet's who say that those two are not connected but that's an older generation of thinking in the digital world technology has proven to be revolutionary in every industry, perhaps the value at times varies but it is nice to believe in the potential utility of a whole new payment system.

Hey, you cannot do that. Other people are supposed to utter that word, and you are supposed to close your ears and eyes when you hear it.
:)

If you really think this, well, I don't know how to put it but I think you are delusional.

I believe it will after all bitcoin has been mined.

Don't forget Buffet was right about dotcom. Whether he is right on bitcoin is yet to be seen.

If I had to guess, I would say that 1 BTC will reach somewhere between $30,000 to $100,000 by 2017, and around the $300,000 mark by 2020.

It should be interesting to look back on this thread and see whether or not my prediction was correct. :D

Anyone can throw a prediction like this and suffer no consequence if they are wrong.

Buffet is skeptical about technology companies because he does not understand how they work and does not understand their products. Likewise he does not understand bitcoin and is skeptical about it.

Buffet only care about the core asset and profitability of a company. Bitcoin has neither.

He might have been right about dotcom, but he wasn't right about the internet. dotcom bubble burst, correct. But, the internet never stopped after that. Actually it progressed further and further and turned into the beast it is today.

Holding 1 bitcoin just in case it happen.

no,i believe it won't
it is impossible

I don't think he was right about dotcom. Many "dotcoms" failed, but others were successful, and some are even the largest companies in the US as measured by both market cap and by sales.

Buffett really does not understand the internet fully so he does not invest. 

I hope so its the only way to get rich after missing first boat  :'(

there are too many good coins before it could go high... 1 mil NOT.

i hope it can reach a million even more because bitcoin is moving everyday by day.

1 million dollar per bitcoin sounds insane to me. Yet again, 1000 dollar per bitcoin sounded insane to anyone in 2009. We never know where is the limit with disruptive technology. It could go to 0 or to 1 million, who the fuck knows tho.

maybe when the block will halve two-tree times(2016 is the first btw), 1 satoshi 1 dollar would be the real dream

I am waiting for 2016. Will not dispose my meagre holdings before that, come what may.

you dont need to hold whole, sell half half btc and buy icecream.  half milion is enought.

1 million is too high but I think it may reach 100,000$ as its highest value ever.

This is after he bought ice cream with the rest of his holdings. :D

Yes it could happen in my opinion, bitcoin's market cap is extremely low considering its features.

1,000,000 seems like a lot so early on to be honest. Getting into the 100.000's seems more realistic at the moment however I would never rule out bitcoins hitting 1,000,000 in time. It's something that we will not see over night or even in the next few years though.

I don't think $1 fees would be the dream. :)


Why didn't OP make this a poll!!???? Why!!???!?!  :-\

The transaction fees would get revised once the value of bitcoin appreciates further, I think.
Transaction fees, apart from keeping the miners happy, are a deterrent of spam.
If bitcoin appreciates like crazy, you can't call those satoshi transactions spam.  :)

Answering to the subject, I'm very bullish I know but in my opinion the possibilities that the btc will hit 1 million $ are high.

Even if I always predict high values for bitcoin, 1 million is really out of my sight, I would not bet a dollar on it.
As ocean (and others) said, 100,000$ could be a realistic value if the adoption will continue to grow at today's rate.

$100,000 will be sufficient reward for all those who invest in it even today. But they will be regretting not coming in when it was priced less than $100.

I don't expect such value for Bitcoin, at least not in short term future- next 10 years.
I think many early adopters will be very happy even if value of bitcoin raise to 10 000 in a next 2-3 years and 1 000 until the end of this year.
If Bitcoin ever hit 1,000,000 something extraordinary should happen, either that bitcoin become official currency in some big country (and replace other official currency) or some other ''great and extraordinary'' event.

Lets assume that BTC doesn't gain in "value". Only rises because of inflation.

Today 580

Year XXXX = 1,000,000

Inflation = 4%

580*1,04^x = 1,000,000
1,04^x=1724
x= ~190 years

So in 190 years we will see a price of 1,000,000 USD even if BTC doesn't gain in purchasing power ;)

So BTC will hit $1,000,000 USD but none of us will be alive to see it happen.  ;D

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Medicine is so innovative and innovations coming in big heaps! Who knows, maybe in 30 years with stemcells you will be able to heal nearly every injury and every aspect of getting older. Scientists are predicting that the first human to reach 200 years old, is already born. Spooky!

No point in living so long if you are plagued with old age problems.
Just increasing longevity is of no use, if you are suffering from alzheimers. I hope all diseases are cured in the future too.  :)

As I wrote, the stemcell therapy will most likely be able to cure all old age problems!

If history is any guide this is not the case. Medicine has been able to increase the average lifespan of the population by not by this large of a percentage. Additionally as people get older they start to develop more advanced problems that cannot be fixed with medicine/medical technology.

The thing is, medicine innovation is increasing exponentially. So if you make a logarithmic growth and take history as an indicator, you will still come out with the numbers I proposed.

Not saying this will hold true, but I very well might.

ok...but when? this is important :D

again, same question: in five years? or in 50 years?

Its possible at the state of hyper inflation alone.

I'm gonna go with 50,000 in 5 years, a million in 15 years.

You'll just have to wait and see. I always think it's silly speculating on prices, especially putting a date on things. Keep spreading the word of bitcoin and the price will surely rise over time, though I dont think it'll ever get to 1 million without massive worldwide adoption which will obviously take a while.

There are huge markets in Asia/Africa which can be tapped. That is what everybody is banking on.

Problem is foreign currency conversion fee in third world is so high that the benefit of bitcoin can not outweigh the cost.

No, because no analyses exist!

i think not
100,000$ is already a really high and difficult cipher to reach
not thinking about 1 million $
I will focus on the "near" future and the 10k $ cipher

It is more a question of possibility.

Which on is more likely: Me playing lottery every week for the next 20 years and winning the jackpot or bitcoin reaching/touching 1 Million.

Both are unlikely, but the second one seems more likely than the first in my opinion.

BTC reaching 100K within 20 Years... i would not want to bet against  :)

Hi,

I do believe BTC can reach those dizzying heights as long as we drive adoption. For example, here in India, people are totally oblivious to BTC, i always need to take some time off from my busy schedules to explain how it works. Some get the logic, some don't!

Unless we have an interface between the people who will be using BTC (Read: Common users) and the techno-whiz kids, it will take forever to reach those levels!

Think of this like microprocessors and users, most common users will struggle to use microprocessors, but they are a cinch for techno-whiz kids. Unless you have an interface (Read: Microsoft OS) which is easy to work with, we will not be able to drive adoption. My 2 satoshi!  ;D

Answering to the OP, I think that the value of bitcoin will reach several thousands of dollars but not millions.

We are talking about the price of Bitcoin, but let's not forget there are other cryptocurrencies out there, still making their way through. ;)

I am willing to wager that none of them will surpass bitcoin in market capitalization for the next 10 years.  ;)

Yes no one of the altcoins will take bitcoin's place, at least in the near future.

I think the maximum might be 50k $. But the future is full of surprises. One extreme brutal hyperinflation can destroy your FIAT wealth in a very short timeframe.

Just imagine: What would happen if only 2 million people would buy "only" one bitcoin ? 2 million people is nothing in a global scale. If we would adapt to 10 million users, the price would be already very high ! The problem is, that compared to us in the west, most of the world is poor.

I think the first big scale bitcoin adoption will happen in one of the poorer countries, that are plagued with a high inflation of their government paper money.

Maximum? The Winklevoss twins' conservative estimate is that much...  ;D
http://www.coindesk.com/cameron-winklevoss-bitcoin-price-40k/

not more than 30k i think, 30k will also take a while it is all about regulation

I don't think the price of 1BTC will ever worth as much as gold price per oz. 

BTC at a mill per coin would be the approximate price if it completely replaced the dollar right?   Don't think it is ever going to happen.

I am bullish long term, but I think the highest we will ever go is around 10k (this is a guess obv)

Why just the dollar? It could replace all fiat currencies.

No. I don't.

Everything can happen, you can never know. It's a damn slippery planet. :)

How ironic,

here we are discussing if BTC will hit a million dollars and BTC is crashing as we speak!

There are no real major indicators as to why it is crashing though, but might just be a good time to buy. damn, why does it crash when i am broke! ??? :'(

It's not a crash but only a downswing which will be followed by a rebound, probably in few weeks we will see again the July values.

Yup, looks to have recovered slightly. I think it was just a bunch of whales playing with BTC :). That said, the price of BTC is too volatile and certainly not for the faint of heart. If we have to drive mainstream adoption, we cant let BTC be this volatile. If volatility is not taken care of, adoption by the masses would become impossible. This also leads me to believe that banks and financial institutions, which stand to lose the most from BTC adoption could be the reason for such volatility! Conspiracy theory? Just might be true!

Fixed for you  :-\

Volatility is a problem self correcting as the size of Bitcoin market increase and single entities become smaller compared to the whole system.
It is also correcting as the need to convert bitcoins in fiat reduce as more entities accept and use bitcoins to pay and be paid and stay inside the Bitcoin ecosystem.
This would reduce the supply of coin available on exchanges.

I just checked out Purse.io, and I see only Bitcoin's asks for >10% than the Bitstamp price.
This is, all the offer under Bistamp+10%< are gone or filled immediately.

i do not believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000
it's too much i think
probably it's about $6k max

If only 1% of the off-shore accounts money moving into Bitcoin, it will bring the price much higher then $1.000.000 alone.

Bitcoin can be used in so many markets, think big.

Ok - Do you think gold will ever be worth $1MM/oz.  ;D

I don't think it will. I don't see Bitcoin as a complete replacement for the traditional monetary system but as an alternative that will work alongside it. It could happen, but I don't see it as a significant possibility IMHO.

Well not a million in USD unless it collapsed but perhaps in a weaker fiat currency
Anyways I think it will work in tandem myself with the fiat system but the future of cryptocurrencies is one with many contenders so there will be more than one solution and the will keep the price lower than a million.

within the next 3 months i guess its possible.

I think it is much more likely that bitcoin becomes something that is used along side of most fiat based currencies then a replacement to fiat based currencies. Fiat has a very large advantage over bitcoin as almost all government transactions (including tax payments and refunds) are done in local fiat.

When does the Winklevii expect these prices and based on what? I want to hear all the details. I don't have the knowledge to analyze these claims, but 40k seems tons to be reached anytime soon or ever?

No time frame given, but they believe market cap of bitcoin could reach $400 Bn.
Another link
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/11/12/winklevoss-twins-say-bitcoin-market-to-hit-400b-urge-regulators-not-to-push-innovation-to-china/

Given the reaction lately, think we will be lucky if BTC hit 800 ever again.

it wont happen, because when BTC will explode there will go money in better alternatives from cryptoworld, before BTC could reach that number.

Some people are quite delusional to think that the price can go up to 1M when the price is still sitting at 500.

Many of us will be quite happy if it hit 1000 again.

yeah, don't dream too high, if someday hit 1k again, i think that's a fair price

Do I believe bitcoin will hit $1,000,000?

It's more a matter of time than belief.

If bitcoin can average around 20% annual price appreciation, from today's price of $500, you're looking at roughly 50 yrs to see $1,000,000/btc in today's dollars.

After around 90 years, you're looking at $1,000,000,000.

Look at Berkshire stock price after a few decades averaging around 8% (I think) just crossed the $200,000 mark.

Dare to Dream.

edit typo, grammar

It's certainly possible for BTC to hit 1,000,000. It went from 2 to 500-600 in 1-2 years. That's insane. It could easily jump whenever.

Yes in 100 years maybay 21 Mio People Pay 1 Mio Dollar  :D

Right now USD 1,000,000 seems very, very far away.

Current price = 478

Two years ago they would laugh at you when you said bitcoin would be worth $100

It's a necessity that it hits 1M if it gets fully accepted by 1st world countries alone.

The alltime peak won't be over 100,000$, 1M isn't realistic.

10k is really tough to achieve already, x10 that is not like x10 from 100 to 1000, the more high the price the more adoption you need

Yes, this is why I cry myself to sleep every night. If It doesnt hit 10k, then thats it, i will never be rich. I discovered BTC too late to enjoy the benefits like most people. Fuck this gay earth :(

10,000$ seems to be far but if bitcoin continues to grow like it did in the last years we will reach it in the near future.

If it ever goes back to $600 I would be surprised

lmfao you people are so stupid and delusional. bitcointalk probably has the highest number of delusional/retarded members in history.
Bitcoin will never hit 1,000,000$ just think about all the people who have at least 1 bitcoin, you think anything in this world allows 10000000+ people to become millionaires effortlessly? That's not how the world works.
Stick on thinking if it'll ever get back to 1000$ which i seriously doubt seeing how much it has dropped recently.

No. At this point I don't even believe it will reach $1000 any time soon :-)

I will be glad if we stop the bleeding and stay stable for a while.

That's not a big stretch lol
I am pretty sure we will see 600 fairly soon but after this price drops a bit more.

$600 is likely in December.

1,000,000 what? USD? NO. people are hyping something like usual, its not far fetched to say it will be worth thousands. but there are other things that are way more stable. if btc goes up to 1,000,000 no one will be ab le to cash it out into fiat or anything. think about that. no place would have enough fiat to buy a btc for 1,000,000 each it would be insane. that would mean bit pay turns into a multi billion dollar company which is scray also because btc is supposed to decentralize things.

But if, if it might reach 1,000,000 USD, then the companies that do the "middle man" stuff like BitPay and Coinbase wouldn't be necessary anymore, because most companies would transact directly from wallet to wallet.

if the rich would stop becoming even reacher, and spread some money, 1M isn't so unrealistic, but better rise per grade, first 10k(actually we need to return to 1k before that) then 100k and then we can talk about 1M

Bitcoin will rise to 5 Million Dollar.

Yes and we will be all rich... 5 millions is impossible.

As the exchange rate of bitcoin increase, its utility increase, so talking about bitcoin not reaching 1.000.000 because it current utility is not enough is wrong.

The points to considers are "what could prevent it from reaching this value".

Governments crack down on its use?
Regulations?
Technical issues.

Bitcoin protocol can be copied to easily.

If I have a group of rich and wealthy friends, I might convince them to buy and sell using another coin or contract based system such as Ethereum to by pass all kind of government regulations.

Protocol can be copied. But other coins can not copy the network effect, marketing and position already in place for bitcoin.

I don't think bitcoin will ever get anywhere near 1 million now. It's just too unreasonable. It's possible of course, but I still think it could become worth several thousands but we'd need a lot of adoption for that, so keep spreading the word guys.

Once BTC destroys all the credit card companies and so on, we will see ridiculous prices.

Just wait for the moment inflation in USD get higher than inflation in BTC.
Just a few weeks from now.
Then USD will start to pour in BTC again as  never before.
Big money will not start to put large sums in Bitcoin before the inflation rate differential get negative.
Why they should?

But as the differential become negative, the question become "Why they shouldn't".

No I don't think we will see 1 million/btc but just in case I'm trying to earn one whole bitcoin...

 Bitcoin hitting the $1 million  mark looks mouth watering but the issue of hyperinflation is a considerable factor to be reckoned with.

I dont think so, cause if cryptos will get popular, there is gonna be saturation by new gen. cryptos, before so much moeny will flow in BTC.

in 100 -200 years from now if things do not change with wallets and people forget the password... them maybe cause there will only be so many bit coins....

so 1 sat could be worth $1


Now give me the pill to 500 year life ok.. then I could be rich..

Maybe in 2050 it will.

Wedbush said it could happen  :D

http://www.coindesk.com/wedbush-wall-street-sees-opportunity-bitcoins-volatility/

The BTC protocol has been copied by many altcoins and they have more or less become unsuccessful. People have also tried to make minor adjustments to the protocol with no success. The fact that the bitcoin network is so strong is what is making BTC successful. 

yeah first $1000, if ever again.

I think too its not so unrealistic, that we will see doge$h** first hitting 1,000,000 then bitcoin.

It is good to have hope and dream.

While it is not realistic to hit 1,000,000, it isn't totally impossible if USD get hit by hyperinflation.

In what planet could Dogecoin hit 1M? I guess you are joking and im too aspie.

It's a necessity if we want to see mass adoption.

lmfao, bitcointalk is filled with autistic retarded motherfuckers i swear!.
i'm laughing so hard at you guys making a 12 page thread actually seriously discussing whether or not btc will reach $1,000,000.
think about whether it will get back to $1000 in the first place and then dream on about your bullshit 1 million$ per btc shit LOL!.
bunch of autists here.

$1,000,000 is already impossible like it needs to be accepted by the whole world

No i do not believe in it but i'm sure that it doesn't need to hit a one million. You know why? Because the number of users will keep it low. Get it?

This post might generate a lot of laughs 5 years from now, even if bitcoin doesn't reach 1 million.  :)

And yet you're joining in the conversation. hmmm...

Not in our age I think we would witness such tremendous rise  of BTC,many factor lies within who knows after evrything bitcoin would fail out of nowhere,the future is uncertain.But who doesn't like dreaming  ;D

Ya the day that DOGE hits $1 million is the day that hell freezes over. We would need to see massive both inflation and economic growth for this to be possible. The market cap of DOGE would be much greater then the world GDP at one million per doge.

Saying bitcoin will never be $xxxx because it can be easily copied is idiotic. How hard is it to copy the "USD Protocol"? Bitcoin will likely become a reserve currency, held to back other privately or publicly issued currencies. Ultimately transaction volume wont be high, but value transfers will be (relatively) massive. Think intra-bank transfers.

It's not hard to accept that the fixed amount (21million) of bitcoins will, over time, appreciate against a currency where the supply continues to increase. Then it is only a matter of time before it reaches $x amount.

Bitcoin is already worth MUCH more than 1,000,000 Zimbabwe dollars. Who knows. Same thing could happen to the USD.

This....

With everything becoming the Internet, the most superior form of money in this electronic environment will win. If Bitcoin is the chosen one, anything is possible.

Definitely not right now. that won't be for possibly an entire generation unless some major catastrophe happens to significantly accelerate things. It took a generation of people who grew up on the internet to expect everything they do to be on the internet. It will likewise take a generation of people growing up with Bitcoin to expect every service they deal with to accept it.

No 1, but 10 million per coin in year 2114  8)

We will hit 1 million dollars for sure but we will have to wait twenty years or more.

Reading these posts and observing the views of the traditional media I notice a couple of things.

1 The traditional media have no clue about the potential for BTC to supplant the sovereign currency system and talk about BRICS currencies and SDRs are a replacement for the current system.

2 Actually I think that we must not be passive, that if we as a global BTC community want 1BTC=$1M within say 12 months from now then yes it is possible - as long as we act in concert and not individually.

We as a global community of x millions? have tremendous power if we act together, and if we can engage with the present failing system on an equal basis and not as irrelevant upstarts.

If we can somehow organize behind an initiative with a goal of 1BTC = $1M by September 2015 we can achieve it - we have the spirit of the time on our side and the power of the crowd againt failing oligopolies who have no idea how to move forward except with more of the same.

Responses?

yeah, let's draft an ultimatum to the CEO of the sovereign currency system.

Exactly, we are dealing with total dinosaurs in here, they don't know where shit is going to hit them from once Bitcoin power is realized by the masses.

Not sure if it will.
But, I hope so. And We all will be a new Billioner  ;D

Better to say: more free.

It IS a necessity, if btc adopts mainstream adoption, then it is a necessity.

People who step in early will make a lot of money.
If after a concerted effort, the price of BTC drops, YOU will be blamed for making people lose money.

Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars only if it will be the worldwide currency, and I don't think that it will happen.

Better question is will btc ever buy 1000 oz of gold.

So, I ran some finance calculations, and:

If bitcoin value goes to $10,000 and stays there forever, but USD keeps inflating at 3% every year, Bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 in 150 years (but $1mil will only buy what $10k buys today)

If Bitcoin value goes up and stays at $10,000, but USD keeps inflating at the rate it has over the last few years, bitcoin will be worth $1mil in just 67 years.

Keep in mind that I picked the $10,000 figure as a conservative estimate of BTC capturing only 0.5% of the world's cash amount.

Now let's say inflation is at a slightly higher rate than the target, at 4% a year, which is I think reasonable with the increased spending, debt obligations, and possibly continuing troubles in the global economy (it's just 1% higher than the Fed's 3% target), and Bitcoin grows at an average rate of a normal stock at 10% a year. Meaning instead of growing to $10,000 (or 0.5% of use) and staying there, it actually continues to grow, with 10% more people adopting it every year. In this case, Bitcoin will be worth $1mil in 56 years, at which point it will be worth about $100,000 in today's dollars, having a market cap of about $1.7 trillion dollars. I don't know what percentage of the total world wealth that will be, since we don't know how much the world economy will expand by then.

If inflation is the same 4%, but bitcoin grows at the same average rate it has over the last few years, about 2x to 3x, or, say, 250%, it will reach $1mil in just 5.9 years, where its worth will be $810,000 per coin. HOWEVER, if that happens, it will have a market cap of about $11 trillion dollars, which tells me that it's pretty much not possible for bitcoin to consistently double or triple every year for the next 6 years. (Sorry latecomers, you may still have a massive return, but there are not many of those left)

So, where about is a reasonable number? No one knows, especially since bitcoins growth is expected to be rapid over the next few years, then level off to something more sustainable years from now, and dollars will continue to decline. While I can set up such a model, the extra detail provided by the variables will not counter the fact that all these numbers are coming out of my ass. But, if we wanted to rough it, and I know you guys want at least some estimates after reading all this, then:

Using 3.5% inflation, and 40% annual bitcoin growth (very reasonable, considering Small Cap stocks give 16%, and we're talking global adoption for currency, transactions, and investments here), gives us a $1million Bitcoin in 21 years, with bitcoin market cap of $8 trillion dollars, which right now is maybe half of all the world's wealth, but 20 years from now may be a fairly small (reasonably believable) part of it.

So there you have it folks. About 20 years for bitcoin to hit $1,000,000, if bitcoin continues being adopted and doesn't fail or get replaced along the way (with an error rate of plus or minus 10 years). For those wondering if you will ever see it in your lifetime, you have your answer.

good work, but I think gold is worth close to $8 trillion. World wealth is more like $250 trillion (from memory).

edit: last Oct http://www.cnbc.com/id/101105809 puts it at $241T

You're right, I was thinking fiat, not wealth. I wonder how much of that $241T is real, and not unbacked debt?

that'd be real or you'd be delving into derivatives and the over $1quadrillion world.

Huh. If that's the case, $1,000,000 is a definite possibility. And I always thought that $100,000 was the most likely ceiling.

what we concern is the concept of decentralization .there is no doubt that the high price will attract more investment

I do not really believe if bitcoin reach $ 1 million
I would be happy if it happens

if bitcoin become a worldwide currency and replace fiat $ 1.000.000 / BTC is possible, but it's still far away from that value..if it reach $ 10.000 i believe it will, now BTC look like stable around $500 / btc..

We need 10K first, please make it happen soon  :-[

We need 1K first, please make it happen soon!  ;)

Well, you do the math:
There can only ever be 21 million people on this planet that will be able to hold 1 whole BTC. If you consider the large exchangers, early miners and whales (just the top 500 addresses hold 4 million BTCs alone, that's not counting the big holders who split into many addresses) I imagine the general public will only be able to get a hold of maybe maybe 8 million BTCs AT MOST. Of those, many will hold more than one. So, I imagine only 3-5 million people on earth will ever hold at least 1 BTC - ever. Considering 7 billion people, you're going to be one of the lucky ones.

Your math is wrong, what makes you count 7 billion people, many of whom don't even have access to electricity, much less to computers and Internet and are uneducated? Even if the so called educated people in the west, to understand why they need Bitcoin they really need to understand much more than what the dumbing down school system gives them. There is a high chance that the price of Bitcoin will rise, but not as quickly and not as high as some here dream. You need to have realistic assessments of the world situation, not wishful thinking.

So what's your 'realistic assessment' of adoption rates? I'm not being antagonistic here, just curious what you think.

My idea is that it's not necessarily Bitcoin that people will be adopting. Bitcoin will not be the only one. But since you asked, here is my take on how it's developing. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=766406.0) As for crypto currencies in general, it will largely depend on how stable or rather, how unstable, the financial systems of the world and individual countries are. The trend is the financial system is losing stability, which is favorable for crypto currencies, adoption will continue to rise with more fiat pouring into crypto currencies, again, not necessarily all of it will be going to Bitcoin.

Ok, so you're more or less describing the present situation - bitcoin is not the only one. So in effect you're saying no crypto can ever be worth much because there'll always be some cheaper alt around?

Not just cheaper, but full of features.

Basically, all crypto 2.0 technologies do the same that Bitcoin does + a bunch of other stuff, and cheaper too.

As for security of network, even this PoW crypto 1.0 as Dogecoin that now accepts hash power from all the other Scrypt coins with its auxPoW feature, can compete with Bitcoin or getting close to be able to compete. But it's 200x cheaper than Bitcoin. Network effect you tell me? School kids will give you all the network effect you need, trust me. They can't afford Bitcoin, they don't care about getting millibits, this just sounds lame, who wants to be a loser in school? But they still can get thousands of Dogecoin. Before I am blamed for pumping Dogecoin, I just want to say this is the most obvious example that Bitcoin is already outdated. Dogecoin won't last more than a few years either, but it's not outdated yet, while Bitcoin is. Future is in crypto 2.0 Proof-of-Stake currencies though.

Imho the only chance BTC to get to 1 mil $ is that USA get in a such bad shape the $ drops to at least 100 times lower value.

But as I also stated, $ is just paper. A better question would be a relationship between the prices for BTC, gold, platinum and maybe other "hard to get" physical things.

Oh really it does? If you ignore 6 orders of magnitude or so, it probably does, right.

@devphp, so you're saying it'll be a race to the bottom?

I don't think it will reach 1 million but it can happen.

When bitcoin will reach 1,000,000$ probably I'll be a grandfather and my time will be almost finished.

Basically, yes. How else could it be if it's the only free market left? Free market always operates in fierce competition environment. Who can operate on smaller profit margins and deliver more, wins.


They are completely different hash functions, you can't do that simple comparison with PH/s of Bitcoin and come up with that number.

Being a free market, individuals are at liberty to assign value to a provably unique digital asset and as it transpires, they have assigned value to 'original' bitcoins, and very little or even zero value in many cases to clone coins. Granted some of the 'true' alts eg nxt may have some inherent value of their own, but they need to show magnitudinal (wow! Fuck!! this is going to completely revolutionise everything!!) advances above and beyond bitcoin, in the eyes of the majority, or me anyway, to be of consequential worth. It's easy, and pretty cool, to talk about crypto 2.0 being the next thing, but what Bitcoin 2, or 3, or 4, etc? Yeah I don't know the future, I could be completely wrong, who knows, but with bitcoin we're not talking about an infinitely reproducible commodity and an inevitable race to the bottom, we're talking about a limited and valued digital resource with unlimited and invaluable potential.

Magnitudinal advances and developments take years to unfold. Nobody knows the future. However, we can try to identify trends, it's less boring than to stay with what has already proven itself. What has already proven itself and known by others usually has a smaller chance to be as successful as something that not many have discovered yet. Failure rate of discovering new trends is large, so take a calculated risk and play safe.

The global GDP today is ~$80T. If BTC dominates 1% of it, it'll be worth the equivalent of $800B, in today's USD. That makes a single BTC worth $40K, in today's terms, assuming 20M BTCs have been mined.

Of course, by that time, today's $40K would have been inflated many times away, but their respective value compared to the total economy would be about the same.

Bitcoin could mean availability of a stable price point again. It's much more transparent than the Gold market. Everyone would able to see how fiat currency is depreciating in value compared to the stable/predictable amount of bitcoins in circulation.

It is interesting to think about the changing investment environment is the world switches from unstable  fiat currencies for calculations to a stable environment of crypto currencies. True economic calculation would be possible again.