Bitcoin Forum

1

1.

Still room to growth.

0.07

0.0431.64

Still at the beginning stage. I give 1

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714

0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714%

so 0.004285714 on his scale

why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?

Firstly , your idea itself is wrong , because it gives you a value below 1.

I am considering it logarithmic because he has asked us for a status on progress as a whole.
If what you are saying is correct , then if we continue at the current speed , global acceptance will occur in around 1.16 million years.

If you consider my scale and assume that the same logarithmic speed continues , it will take 5 more years for Bitcoin to be globally accepted. (5 years so far , 5 more years to go)

My idea is not very accurate , because it assumes that we can keep up this logarithmic pace.
However , it is still more accurate than your scale when it comes to gauging Bitcoin.

I see alot of people saying 1, but I wouldn't go that far.  Maybe three years ago it was a 1.

With a small number of the larger retailers getting on board, it's probably somewhere between 5 and 10 at least.  I'll say 8.  Warming up.

3 million estimated bitcoiners out of 7 billion people in the world
= 0.05/100

3 it leveled up a few times  ;D

Adoption and usage is the important thing but what about people that heard about bitcoin? I'd say even 20 out 100 heard about it. But don't use it.

I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.

So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.

Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.

I think complete adoption is possible , or atleast 90%+ , though it is unlikely.
Many Bitcoin users envision a scenario where Bitcoin is considered the global currency , like the Euro but for the entire world rather than just the EU.

This is rather unlikely , but not impossible.

I still don't understand how everyone is valuing it at 1 or below on the scale though -.-

Okay , let me work on this to emphasize my point,

There are a million people in city A.
On day 1 , Nakamoto tell 9 friends about it , making it 10 adopters. ( 9 total new people )
On day 2 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 100 adopters ( 90 total new people )
On day 3 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000 adopters. ( 900 total new people )
.....
On day 6 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000,000 adopters. (900,000 total new people)

Now , at day 3 , one friend decides to estimate their progress.
He sees that it has been three days since it started.
He says that 1000/1000,000 = 0.1% of people know about Bitcoin.
They estimate that it will take 3 * 100/0.1 = 3000 more days for the entire city to know about Bitcoin , when in reality , it will take only 3 more days.
However , in a realistic scenario , this will take a bit longer than 3 days , as by day 6 , a large proportion of the people each friend tells will have already heard of Bitcoin from someone else.

Getting back to my point , the growth and rate of new members entering into Bitcoin is increasing exponentially.
Price charts are shown in logarithmic scales , in order to make them readable.
My prediction is based on the exponential growth of Bitcoin and asserts that we are halfway there.
The prediction cannot be deemed accurate , because it is just a guess at best , but it is still more accurate than all the guesses of 1 so far.

BE CONFIDENT IN BITCOIN ! WE HAVE COVERED FAR MORE GROUND THAN THE "1" YOU SAY

you have a completely different interpretation of the scale than me and probably most of us.

The way i interpreted it is that he is asking how much % we are compared to where we would be if everyone accepted bitcoin.

Therefore, we are not even at 1% adoption, not even at 0.1% even.

We're very, very early adopters and there's plenty of room to grow, so we're not even close to 1 on a scale of 1-100.

also, neither of us is 'wrong' it's just you are counting time, and i am counting humans.

i'd also say we're about halfway in time, but definitely not halfway in humans.

Funny, if the 1-100 scale were logarithically interpreted, then I'd say 1.  Otherwise I think we're probably still less than 1.

1 x 10^-7

Maybe around a three with merchants coming online seemingly every day. Still a ways to go, but the pace will pick up exponentially. 

To put the question in the OP another way, we'll throw in that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before here:

http://nameshapers.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Nameshapers-social-business-Deloitte-innovation-adoption-curve.png

Normally when these threads come up, people generally estimate we're somewhere between Innovators and Early Adopters, but so far everyone in this thread seems to think we're so early that we're barely on the curve. 

So at the end where do you think we are? , i think we are in a similar state to facebook around 2008-2009..

I have similar view.

Will exit if bitcoin price shoot up to 5k in a relatively short period of time. And wait for next bust before getting in again.

We are still at early stage of usage.

There is no mutual fund or private equity firm investing in bitcoin yet. And no state and local pension holding bitcoin in their portfolio,

When you hear everyone is in bitcoin and start talking about it on every street corner, that is when you should exit and take your money elsewhere.

I agree and should have pointed that out, what I mean is 100 = full possible adoption of bitcoin, not 100 = every person on earth uses btc.

To accurately calculate the number we need to know how many people in 2014 are capable of performing bitcoin transactions, requirements: must have access to an electronic wallet (for security), must be older then a certain age and capable to understand the concept of money. So that's the max number.

Then we need to have the current number of individual bitcoin users (not wallet addresses).

More like facebook in 2006 or so. Hardly anyone uses it yet, although many have heard about it. It definitely has no 100%+ growth rate per month yet like facebook had in 2008.


If bitcoin were a regular stock, i'd agree, but with bitcoin it's different, once bitcoin controls the economy, you won't have to cash out. Bitcoin will BE your cash.

That's the winning ticket right there, that's a point bitcoin hasn't reached yet.

As long as people still talk like btc is this many $'s, which is totally understandable btw, bitcoin has not yet matured enough to be considered a stable currency ready for mass adoption.

i say 10, 1 was at 2011, and grow isn't linear

Hello,
I think it is standing in the 10-20 already :)
I was not going to say that , but i met my mother recently and she was knowing about BTC without me to share it. She was knowing about the auction lol :D

I think we can say where our expectations regarding the BTC does stand today. BTC is a decentralized crypto currency - there is no reliable, non-speculative information in order to make conclusions about it.

Obviously from 1 to 100, 1 is the minimum possible so 1 person : satoshi
That alone eliminate 80% of thoose guesses.
Then dividing the number of users by the entire population is irrelevent as someone pointed out. It tells nothing.
Now everybody Will not use bitcoin so i would say 57 :)

In that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before we are eary adopters.

For Bitcoin community, June has been a month of mixed blessing. Prices fell from $ 128.8 to $ 97.5 (and currently stands around $ 70), a large Bitcoin network statistics such as the number of transactions per block and the number of unique Bitcoin address used to fall sharply, and the Foundation for Bitcoin received a letter of termination and dismissal from the California Department of Financial Institutions. On the other hand, the volume of Google Trends, a statistic which estimates the global level in the interest in Bitcoin, at least temporarily halt the decline, and is now back to its level on May 19 to 25, or 20% of the peak. Media attention was mixed, with some articles arguing for the reason that Bitcoin "lost light" and others say that it is now "back on track" following some good news.but for the beginning of July, I am still watching

5-10 percent all day in my book and slowly growing.  I'd think it's more closer to 6 percent honestly.

interesting report. but can you give details or if you take from a source you can tell us more. thank you

Sorry friend I don't have any links for you to refer to at this time.  Honestly I was just giving my opinion based on my gut feel or an educated guess.  The multi colered chart posted above can give a similar example of where I feel Bitcoin it at currently.

Just about anyone that surf the web know bitcoin. 8-10.

Knowledge people of Bitcoin: 40/100

Bitcoin price: 1/100

Total FIAT to Bitcoin: 0.0001/100

So eventually it's going to be $62500 per bitcoin?  Think I can live with that, heh.  Fingers crossed, but dunno if that's a little optimistic.  Maybe if we're lucky.  6 cents a bit, roughly.

I wouldn't give it any more than a one to be honest as it's still at that beginning stage where it still has room to grow and still needs time to do so. With anything so big like this it's going to take time before it's going to be any higher on a scale as to where it stands.

10/100 for adoption(not for value though), and my dream is 1 satoshi = 1 dollar

I think that's the dream of everyone holding even a small fraction of a bitcoin.  As long as faucets are still giving out satoshis by the hundreds, everyone can get a few hundred satoshi's and hope that's all they need to make a killing.  Personally, I don't think we'll get to 1Sat=1dollar in our lifetimes.  I'd be perfectly happy if we got to 100Satoshi's=1dollar (that'd still make me a killing :))

I'll say about 20, a lot of people is aware of it today, but far from critical mass.

Less than 10.

Just spoke to a few bank tellers and loan officers this week and none of them are aware of bitcoin.

I guess only the 15-20% of the world knows of bitcoin as of now and even less percentage of people use it for daily purposes.Some people aren't even familiar with the term.They are like what bird is that? When you talk about bitcoin infront of them LOL

Most people around the world still do not know bitcoin, even banker and loan officer working for bank.

So 10/100.

maybe 2-4

2-4 seems accurate to me.

Much like 3/100.

much less than 10% adoption and the adopters are also not using the bitcoins just holding, lots of work to be done!

1 satoshi = 1 dollar would be great but it's almost impossible, btw we can reach higher values than the current ATH.

Probably we are less than 1% of the potential total adoption, still in the early adopters stage.

Agreed with your way to interpret the scale logarithmically (as opposed to linear), but I think we are less than half way there even on a log scale. Probably less than half of the first half, so I say:

More than 1, less than 25 on a (log) scale from 1 to 100.

Impossible to happen. We just wish a $600 outburst by the end of the year

Technology gets adopted exponentially (or more accurately, following an S-curve). So the earlier poster who was thinking about this logarithmically had the right idea.

The way I would think about it is... look at that technology adoption curve, and then divide it into equal units from 0 to 100 on the bottom (horizontal) axis.

http://nameshapers.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Nameshapers-social-business-Deloitte-innovation-adoption-curve.png

For example, if we were at the end of the early adopters stage (2.5% adoption), that's about 15% of the way across the graph horizontally (this could be calculated more precisely using the actual formula of the curve, just too lazy to do it now), so I'd call that 15/100 for the purposes of answering the question in the OP.

As for how to define adoption, if the goal of bitcoin is to be a currency used as much as the USD is now for example, then what we should measure is not the number of people using it (which we don't know), but the value of transactions that happen in it per unit time. BTC transactions per day are valued at around $50 M USD. I don't know what the total daily transaction volume in fiat currencies is, but US capital markets are ~$3 trillion per day. If we just compare to that, bitcoin transaction volume is 1.7 x 10^-5 of USD transaction volume.

Interesting. What would be the price of BTC at the tip of thea doption curve?

I would say much less than 0.1%. The merchants accepting BTC should also use it to pay bills, not just selling it on exchanges.

Less than ONE. The party hasnt even begun.

It stands at $400 more or less.   :D

Bitcoin has bled into industry slightly, but needs to become adopted by more companies for it to become successful.

With the adoption of paypal. Maybe 20-25?

Maybe 3-10 after paypal embraced bitcoin.