where does bitcoin stand today? (July 2014)

[Dallas5]

On a scale of 1 - 100, with 100 being full worldwide adoption and usage where does bitcoin stand?

[1715512610]

1715512610

[1715512610]

1715512610

[1715512610]

1715512610

[linelec]

1

[leezay]

1.

Still room to growth.

[zimmah]

0.07

[gentlemand]

0.0431.64

[lihuajkl]

Still at the beginning stage. I give 1

[jambola2]

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

[zimmah]

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714

0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714%

so 0.004285714 on his scale

why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?

[jambola2]

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714

0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714%

so 0.004285714 on his scale

why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?

Firstly , your idea itself is wrong , because it gives you a value below 1.

I am considering it logarithmic because he has asked us for a status on progress as a whole.
If what you are saying is correct , then if we continue at the current speed , global acceptance will occur in around 1.16 million years.

If you consider my scale and assume that the same logarithmic speed continues , it will take 5 more years for Bitcoin to be globally accepted. (5 years so far , 5 more years to go)

My idea is not very accurate , because it assumes that we can keep up this logarithmic pace.
However , it is still more accurate than your scale when it comes to gauging Bitcoin.

[DooMAD]

I see alot of people saying 1, but I wouldn't go that far.  Maybe three years ago it was a 1.

With a small number of the larger retailers getting on board, it's probably somewhere between 5 and 10 at least.  I'll say 8.  Warming up.

[waldox]

3 million estimated bitcoiners out of 7 billion people in the world
= 0.05/100

[Rooothlespredators]

3 it leveled up a few times 

[wobber]

Adoption and usage is the important thing but what about people that heard about bitcoin? I'd say even 20 out 100 heard about it. But don't use it.

[IIOII]

I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.

So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.

Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.

[jambola2]

I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.

So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.

Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.

I think complete adoption is possible , or atleast 90%+ , though it is unlikely.
Many Bitcoin users envision a scenario where Bitcoin is considered the global currency , like the Euro but for the entire world rather than just the EU.

This is rather unlikely , but not impossible.

I still don't understand how everyone is valuing it at 1 or below on the scale though -.-

[jambola2]

Adoption and usage is the important thing but what about people that heard about bitcoin? I'd say even 20 out 100 heard about it. But don't use it.

Okay , let me work on this to emphasize my point,

There are a million people in city A.
On day 1 , Nakamoto tell 9 friends about it , making it 10 adopters. ( 9 total new people )
On day 2 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 100 adopters ( 90 total new people )
On day 3 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000 adopters. ( 900 total new people )
.....
On day 6 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000,000 adopters. (900,000 total new people)

Now , at day 3 , one friend decides to estimate their progress.
He sees that it has been three days since it started.
He says that 1000/1000,000 = 0.1% of people know about Bitcoin.
They estimate that it will take 3 * 100/0.1 = 3000 more days for the entire city to know about Bitcoin , when in reality , it will take only 3 more days.
However , in a realistic scenario , this will take a bit longer than 3 days , as by day 6 , a large proportion of the people each friend tells will have already heard of Bitcoin from someone else.

Getting back to my point , the growth and rate of new members entering into Bitcoin is increasing exponentially.
Price charts are shown in logarithmic scales , in order to make them readable.
My prediction is based on the exponential growth of Bitcoin and asserts that we are halfway there.
The prediction cannot be deemed accurate , because it is just a guess at best , but it is still more accurate than all the guesses of 1 so far.

BE CONFIDENT IN BITCOIN ! WE HAVE COVERED FAR MORE GROUND THAN THE "1" YOU SAY

[zimmah]

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714

0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714%

so 0.004285714 on his scale

why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?

Firstly , your idea itself is wrong , because it gives you a value below 1.

I am considering it logarithmic because he has asked us for a status on progress as a whole.
If what you are saying is correct , then if we continue at the current speed , global acceptance will occur in around 1.16 million years.

If you consider my scale and assume that the same logarithmic speed continues , it will take 5 more years for Bitcoin to be globally accepted. (5 years so far , 5 more years to go)

My idea is not very accurate , because it assumes that we can keep up this logarithmic pace.
However , it is still more accurate than your scale when it comes to gauging Bitcoin.

you have a completely different interpretation of the scale than me and probably most of us.

The way i interpreted it is that he is asking how much % we are compared to where we would be if everyone accepted bitcoin.

Therefore, we are not even at 1% adoption, not even at 0.1% even.

We're very, very early adopters and there's plenty of room to grow, so we're not even close to 1 on a scale of 1-100.

also, neither of us is 'wrong' it's just you are counting time, and i am counting humans.

i'd also say we're about halfway in time, but definitely not halfway in humans.

[tspacepilot]

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714

0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714%

so 0.004285714 on his scale

why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?

Funny, if the 1-100 scale were logarithically interpreted, then I'd say 1.  Otherwise I think we're probably still less than 1.

[Skele]

1 x 10^-7

[Ron~Popeil]

Maybe around a three with merchants coming online seemingly every day. Still a ways to go, but the pace will pick up exponentially.