Bitcoin Forum

Sorry if this post belongs in a subthread, it doesnt seem to from my quick check...

I notice (based on BTC-e data) that the price peaks every 30~34 weeks approx:

11/6/8, 12/1/5, 12/8/17, 13/4/10 and 13/11/30 (dates are in international standard of YY/MM/DD, sorry ; ).

Since the last peak was approx 32 weeks ago this makes me wonder what will happen next 2 weeks - does anyone have data for Bitstamp on those weeks? The data on bitcoincharts is impossible to see anything but the gap between the last two spikes, and not clear enough to count the weeks and pick the days out.

Thanks

full chart at ~33 week intervals
https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3840/14643202325_a77f19a8dc_s.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/oiYeTB)btc1 (https://flic.kr/p/oiYeTB)  (https://www.flickr.com/people//)
peak 1 11/6/8
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/0444mn
peak 2 12/1/5
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/496Vcx
peak 3 12/8/17
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/7sdDDJ
peak 4 13/4/10
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/8GA4e0
peak 5 13/11/30
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/gk1yrN

edit: better pics added to flikr now

Yes, I have observed the same tendency. Per my math it is also every 30-34 weeks.
This lands the next peak somewhere between late August to early September with a price of $5000-$6400.

Here is my prediction:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/)


And here is someone else's:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/tBecsTcW/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/tBecsTcW/)

I think this time we have to wait a little bit longer for the peak...but it will come im sure  ;D

To me it's a win-win scenario. I'm waiting for a refund from Butterfly Labs for the equipment I preordered when BTC was trading at 1200$ each. Should the price remain stagnant until I get my bitcoins refunded, I will have doubled them :D Should the price explode, I'll make shit load of profit anyway. WIN WIN :P

Refund from Butterfly labs?  :-\

Yes?

LOL it will take years to get your money back ...

Not quite true.
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/the-monarch-discussion/8474-black-friday-6-month-anniversary-5-29-2014-whos-opting-refund.html

Your timing was very well done. I too want a refund from Butterfly Labs but they have denied it to me because I accepted the "upgrade" in March 2014 (it's been almost 4 months. When I asked for a refund newly, they denied me).

I placed my order with BFL when the BTC was $130 each.  I will lose about 5x what I spent IF I can get it back. :(

I was banned from their forums as well, for pointing out missed dates.


Reading for your downtime:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=682150.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=682150.0)
http://wedemandjusticefrombfl.com/ (http://wedemandjusticefrombfl.com/)

Heh. The reason I opted for refund was that my posts got deleted and it angered me and even if they delivered the next day I would have been import taxed on the old price which started to seem more and more like discrimination. I suspect though that I won't get the refund before the price explodes so I won't be making any more bitcoins than I initially paid in. 30 days refund countdown will be over in the beginning of August for my order.

Yay the order is 6 months overdue and I can get my money back ....  ::)

Well just like last year, just a little more early, because if i remember correctly, last year it started to go up late september

There were 2 peaks last year.. March/April and November/December, so not necessarily early. In fact, the entire thread is suggesting that the peaks occur on a set interval every 30-34 weeks, so no not like last year at all.

True Bitcoin has average periods of up movements I remember a thread a while back that was pretty close on the last one
Then again I forgot how long ago that was now.

I don't have permission to view that photo according to flickr

but i also think a peak is overdue and i also think bitcoin is very undervalued at the moment, it's way below most trendlines and i wonder why the price is so low right now and stays so low despite the good news lately and the time that had past since the previous peak.

If we get past 680 and stay there a few days, then *maybe* we'll have 1% chances to rally. I cannot possibly see what catalyst would bring price increases right now.

Past weeks we had uber-bullish news, positive news, USMS auction and lots of independent TAs doing megabubble graphs. But nothing happened. Just some price swings.

I just wondering, do butterflylabs pays their employee well ? I mean, my point is .. I'm not quite sure if I would buy a product from a foxconn slavery factory style ...

Fact is they can manufacture 65nm ASICs. Once developed, it's cheap to mass produce them. Desperate times take desperate measures, right? I'm pretty sure they're mining Bitcoins themselves and that's why they changed their refund policy and are now paying back with bitcoins to the customers who paid for their preorders with bitcoins. They're employees might even get paid unofficially with bitcoins.

I'm personally expecting to see some mass adoption (china '13 style) in developing nations soon with people like https://www.37coins.com/ who are attempting to make an impact in the next months. And apparently Android phone makers are going to make a big push into places like India soon which would mean wallets like http://www.kncwallet.com/ might spir some buying power into action.
I wouldnt be surprised if a large economy nation or regulatory body comes out with some surprising good news in the next months that creates more bullishness. Having said all that, nothing that would neccessarily start a rally. But you never know, the butterfly effect can be very effective in creating buy (and sell) ralleys.

Also, all the new retailers now accepting BTC could start a steady tide of buyers that dont spend all their BTC at once creating some new buying pressure - ie if person x decides to buy something for 0.074BTC from merchant Z, they might buy 0.08BTC from fiat, then spend the 0.074B leaving small residual amounts of BTC unspent as they're not likely to cash that small amount back into fiat. Assuming some of the retailers dont transfer all their BTC back into fiat soon after getting it, that would also create a residual amount of BTC left in their wallets that were bought but not sold. So, say 99% of BTC bought to be spent gets converted back into fiat by merchants, then theres a new flow of buyers who are 'hoarding' by default creating an extra buying pressure that wasnt there, even 6 months ago. Even if it's only 1% of BTC spent in retail, its still new buying pressure.
I doubt this is a reason the price will shoot up any time soon, but I think its a new note worthy 'buy' factor that creates a 'bottom' in the price that is v hard to penetrate.

Even if the rally doesnt happen, it would be the first time in years a peak didnt form at this period / cyclical interval, which would be weird:p

The only realistically possible thing that could happen which could send the price shooting up like that in the next couple of months (that I can think of at least)  would be Paypal and/or eBay announcing a roadmap or definite timeframe for integrating Bitcoin.

fixed the flickr thing, the pics are free for all now.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/68042863@N00/14643202325/in/set-72157645251151818

Thanks for the info! Looks good with the log charts, much clearer:)

However, I make 33 weeks from 30th Nov to be next week (based on manual count on calendar and in MT4). Maybe this is from the different price peaks in Stamp v Btc-e. What day was the peak in Stamp? I make 40 weeks = 6 Sept.

Last bit of armchair analysis before I leave this alone:

https://flic.kr/p/o3gv4d
(green marks the lowest price in between peaks and blue marks approx the 'last low' before the next peak)

It seems that the closer the lowest price hits after a peak, the slower the next rally is from start to finish (bottom blue to pink peak). It seems the last low after peak was relatively far from each other, suggesting that the next rally will be a slowish one.

But this is really rule of thumb from 1000 paces back... its a bit dodgy but it might give an insight in the rhythm of the market.
Anyone else see a more conclusive pattern?

Last guess for a rally trigger: LTC goes on a rally and drops. People move their trading LTC back into BTC causing a price break though into $700 where all the sellers are taken out triggering the rally as there are very few sellers before the high 800 to 1000$.

OK, enough guessing!  :-X

Here is my chart about this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/buU0IbBf/

What did send the price from 1 to 31? from 15 to 265? from 100 to 1200? in all cases, the answer is - nothing really, just more people buying that selling. Sure, once the rise is on you can pick some good news piece and attribute the rise to it, but really, it's just backwards thinking. There's always a plethora of good news and you can never predict which one would be a tipping point.

1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.

The first 2 peaks on my chart are below $32 - the peak of 2011.

It doesn't matter where we should have a peak. The time for this "bubble" is over. Gonna crash hard. Have a nice bagholding, folks  ;D

What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

My chart shows time between peaks, like the OP's guess.
Not the "establishing floor", just time between peaks.

Time between peaks either 214 or 235 days. That's why I drew 2 lines on previous peaks.
We have passed 214 days time point already, probably we already have started the next wave of the downtrend.
But we still have 1-2 weeks to the 235 days time point. Maybe we'll have a bubble during these weeks? I don't think so.

Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

Ah I see what you said. Probably the $650 price could be a floor for the next "bubble", but this "bubble" has only 1-2 weeks to occur then. I don't see any "panic buying" like it was during the previous bubbles.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NdC1YT2t/

Right.  So we'd be stuck in a tiny range.  That's highly improbable for Bitcoin.  So this chart's interpretation is suspect.

More likely is the smart money is holding back the bubble to violate trend lines and cause dumb money to sell.  They pick up as many Bitcoins as they want, and then the bubble starts.

Sure, but this trick will take 1-2 years I guess. Right now everyone is too optimistic about Bitcoin, so we need way more time to cause "dumb money" to sell. I think 1-2 years are enough for that.

I'm not sure where you got the 1-2 years.  This kind of thing happens quickly.  If dumb money thinks the floor is collapsing, the sell off will be sharp.  It would be another SR event, followed immediately by the next bubble.

Right now the "dumb money" people think they are smart enough not to sell into another "SR event". So I expect a slow painful downtrend aimed maybe even to single digits.

Whilst technically accurate, this is drawing conclusions off a very limited data set. Bitcoin doesn't go back 100 years does it? By definition this trend is not sustainable forever, so it will be broken sooner or later. It's not entirely irrational to think it will be broken sooner rather than later. Anything else is just opinion.

If we're talking opinion, I've never seen a bitcoin bubble commence whilst a majority of traders were expecting it. Right now everyone seems to be waiting for the inevitable bubble. I'm not sure it can happen until people start thinking it's not inevitable after all. BTC has a history of breaking a pattern when it has become obvious.

33 weeks' peak may not happen this time round, but the peak will come, most likely buy the end of 2014. We can make this happen ourselves, if we all buy 1 btc at the same time.  :D

Nope.  The market definitely doesn't work that way.  Everyone tries to front-run everyone else.  Such a collapse would not be a straight line.  It would be a steep curve down.  Dumb money would sell coins cheap to the waiting smart money, then buy the coins back later once the price has been shooting up for a while.

Sure, I don't say there will be a straight line. It will be a curve: waves down and corrections up. And now we have finished the first correction of this downtrend.

Nope...

We'll see  ;)

Funny how your Chart points at the 20th of July for BTC to hit the next peak. After watching this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw i'm now convinced that there's some uber universal force that determines our financial destiny. Forget TA, it's all magic!

Thank you Illuminati, Freemasons, whatever.

Well guys, looks like were in a new cycle length... theres lots of support in mid/low 500's so plenty of hope that a rally is coming soon, but I guess 33/34 weeks rotation is out now that were in wk35 since the last one...
https://flic.kr/p/osL8jA
Plenty of buyers hanging around the support trend line areas too (at the moment;):
https://flic.kr/p/ouLoDs

TA actually has a lot in common with magic. They are both based mostly on superstition (seeing coincidences as casuality) with a bit of pseudo-psychology thrown in, but if enough people believe in them they can actually make them appear true by acting as if they were true.

why would it take years? makes no sense at all. dumb money is already panicking, thats why you just posted this, thats why other morons are posting shit like bitcoin is dead for 2014, well never see 1000 again etc etc. the optimism of the spring has turned into caution because we missed the magical number. we missed it because market manipulators made us miss it, in order to instill fear into the gullible. its all nonsense. 200 million is coming from GABI alone, and people still are panicking like the world is ending over a few 500 btc dumps. guess thats why they call you guys weak hands.

If you're looking at the peak of the bubbles and the start of the run, we're now at 4/3, where 3/3 marks the place where last year's November bubble begun. But if you take into consideration, that the first bubble of 2013 had a shorter time to prepare for its run-up, we are indeed looking at increasing intervals, and thus still perfectly on track.

That's true and people should consider that (in my opinion) the more we are in this stagnant period, the higher the next peak will be.

I gotta say, though... We're not in a stagnant period anymore. At least not since this morning!

Who gives a shit about current price? 100$ up or down...makes no sense. With increase of new people in bitcoin price will rise. Supply of bitcoin is limited, just wait for few years, you will see that this price is bargain. I just know that I am not selling mine below 10k$ each.

a smart man

Yea, that's why I stopped day trading and just see low prices as good times to accumulate more for the future.  This is just more BTC for me on my daily buy.

All the previous crash always follow by new high.

Will be be different this time?

Longs on margin over at Bitfinex need to be wiped out. The credit bubble over there is troubling! We may need to burn a couple million first.

no sweat, keep holding onto your coins people!
it is holliday season and demand is usually low.
Let's wait and see in october.

Sell in May and Go Away: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp  (Buy again in early November)