BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks

[gjgjg]

Sorry if this post belongs in a subthread, it doesnt seem to from my quick check...

I notice (based on BTC-e data) that the price peaks every 30~34 weeks approx:

11/6/8, 12/1/5, 12/8/17, 13/4/10 and 13/11/30 (dates are in international standard of YY/MM/DD, sorry ; ).

Since the last peak was approx 32 weeks ago this makes me wonder what will happen next 2 weeks - does anyone have data for Bitstamp on those weeks? The data on bitcoincharts is impossible to see anything but the gap between the last two spikes, and not clear enough to count the weeks and pick the days out.

Thanks

full chart at ~33 week intervals
btc1
peak 1 11/6/8
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/0444mn
peak 2 12/1/5
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/496Vcx
peak 3 12/8/17
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/7sdDDJ
peak 4 13/4/10
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/8GA4e0
peak 5 13/11/30
https://www.flickr.com/gp/68042863@N00/gk1yrN

edit: better pics added to flikr now

[colinistheman]

Yes, I have observed the same tendency. Per my math it is also every 30-34 weeks.
This lands the next peak somewhere between late August to early September with a price of $5000-$6400.

Here is my prediction:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/


And here is someone else's:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/tBecsTcW/

[Fiftysven]

I think this time we have to wait a little bit longer for the peak...but it will come im sure 

[Hyena]

To me it's a win-win scenario. I'm waiting for a refund from Butterfly Labs for the equipment I preordered when BTC was trading at 1200$ each. Should the price remain stagnant until I get my bitcoins refunded, I will have doubled them Should the price explode, I'll make shit load of profit anyway. WIN WIN

[CMMPro]

Refund from Butterfly labs? 

[Hyena]

Refund from Butterfly labs? 

Yes?

[Wilhelm]

Refund from Butterfly labs? 

LOL it will take years to get your money back ...

[Hyena]

Refund from Butterfly labs? 

LOL it will take years to get your money back ...

Not quite true.
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/the-monarch-discussion/8474-black-friday-6-month-anniversary-5-29-2014-whos-opting-refund.html

[colinistheman]

To me it's a win-win scenario. I'm waiting for a refund from Butterfly Labs for the equipment I preordered when BTC was trading at 1200$ each. Should the price remain stagnant until I get my bitcoins refunded, I will have doubled them Should the price explode, I'll make shit load of profit anyway. WIN WIN

Your timing was very well done. I too want a refund from Butterfly Labs but they have denied it to me because I accepted the "upgrade" in March 2014 (it's been almost 4 months. When I asked for a refund newly, they denied me).

I placed my order with BFL when the BTC was $130 each.  I will lose about 5x what I spent IF I can get it back.

I was banned from their forums as well, for pointing out missed dates.


Reading for your downtime:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=682150.0
http://wedemandjusticefrombfl.com/

[Hyena]

To me it's a win-win scenario. I'm waiting for a refund from Butterfly Labs for the equipment I preordered when BTC was trading at 1200$ each. Should the price remain stagnant until I get my bitcoins refunded, I will have doubled them Should the price explode, I'll make shit load of profit anyway. WIN WIN

Your timing was very well done. I too want a refund from Butterfly Labs but they have denied it to me because I accepted the "upgrade" in March 2014 (it's been almost 4 months. When I asked for a refund newly, they denied me).

I placed my order with BFL when the BTC was $130 each.  I will lose about 5x what I spent IF I can get it back.

I was banned from their forums as well, for pointing out missed dates.


Reading for your downtime:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=682150.0
http://wedemandjusticefrombfl.com/

Heh. The reason I opted for refund was that my posts got deleted and it angered me and even if they delivered the next day I would have been import taxed on the old price which started to seem more and more like discrimination. I suspect though that I won't get the refund before the price explodes so I won't be making any more bitcoins than I initially paid in. 30 days refund countdown will be over in the beginning of August for my order.

[Wilhelm]

Refund from Butterfly labs?  

LOL it will take years to get your money back ...

Not quite true.
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/the-monarch-discussion/8474-black-friday-6-month-anniversary-5-29-2014-whos-opting-refund.html

Yay the order is 6 months overdue and I can get my money back ....  

[Benjig]

Yes, I have observed the same tendency. Per my math it is also every 30-34 weeks.
This lands the next peak somewhere between late August to early September with a price of $5000-$6400.

Here is my prediction:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/


And here is someone else's:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/tBecsTcW/

Well just like last year, just a little more early, because if i remember correctly, last year it started to go up late september

[mrbrt]

Yes, I have observed the same tendency. Per my math it is also every 30-34 weeks.
This lands the next peak somewhere between late August to early September with a price of $5000-$6400.

Here is my prediction:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/


And here is someone else's:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/tBecsTcW/

Well just like last year, just a little more early, because if i remember correctly, last year it started to go up late september

There were 2 peaks last year.. March/April and November/December, so not necessarily early. In fact, the entire thread is suggesting that the peaks occur on a set interval every 30-34 weeks, so no not like last year at all.

[freedomno1]

I think this time we have to wait a little bit longer for the peak...but it will come im sure 

True Bitcoin has average periods of up movements I remember a thread a while back that was pretty close on the last one
Then again I forgot how long ago that was now.

[zimmah]

I don't have permission to view that photo according to flickr

but i also think a peak is overdue and i also think bitcoin is very undervalued at the moment, it's way below most trendlines and i wonder why the price is so low right now and stays so low despite the good news lately and the time that had past since the previous peak.

[wobber]

If we get past 680 and stay there a few days, then *maybe* we'll have 1% chances to rally. I cannot possibly see what catalyst would bring price increases right now.

Past weeks we had uber-bullish news, positive news, USMS auction and lots of independent TAs doing megabubble graphs. But nothing happened. Just some price swings.

[knightcoin]

Refund from Butterfly labs? 

LOL it will take years to get your money back ...

Not quite true.
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/the-monarch-discussion/8474-black-friday-6-month-anniversary-5-29-2014-whos-opting-refund.html

I just wondering, do butterflylabs pays their employee well ? I mean, my point is .. I'm not quite sure if I would buy a product from a foxconn slavery factory style ...

[Hyena]

Refund from Butterfly labs? 

LOL it will take years to get your money back ...

Not quite true.
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/the-monarch-discussion/8474-black-friday-6-month-anniversary-5-29-2014-whos-opting-refund.html

I just wondering, do butterflylabs pays their employee well ? I mean, my point is .. I'm not quite sure if I would buy a product from a foxconn slavery factory style ...

Fact is they can manufacture 65nm ASICs. Once developed, it's cheap to mass produce them. Desperate times take desperate measures, right? I'm pretty sure they're mining Bitcoins themselves and that's why they changed their refund policy and are now paying back with bitcoins to the customers who paid for their preorders with bitcoins. They're employees might even get paid unofficially with bitcoins.

[gjgjg]

If we get past 680 and stay there a few days, then *maybe* we'll have 1% chances to rally. I cannot possibly see what catalyst would bring price increases right now.

Past weeks we had uber-bullish news, positive news, USMS auction and lots of independent TAs doing megabubble graphs. But nothing happened. Just some price swings.

I'm personally expecting to see some mass adoption (china '13 style) in developing nations soon with people like https://www.37coins.com/ who are attempting to make an impact in the next months. And apparently Android phone makers are going to make a big push into places like India soon which would mean wallets like http://www.kncwallet.com/ might spir some buying power into action.
I wouldnt be surprised if a large economy nation or regulatory body comes out with some surprising good news in the next months that creates more bullishness. Having said all that, nothing that would neccessarily start a rally. But you never know, the butterfly effect can be very effective in creating buy (and sell) ralleys.

Also, all the new retailers now accepting BTC could start a steady tide of buyers that dont spend all their BTC at once creating some new buying pressure - ie if person x decides to buy something for 0.074BTC from merchant Z, they might buy 0.08BTC from fiat, then spend the 0.074B leaving small residual amounts of BTC unspent as they're not likely to cash that small amount back into fiat. Assuming some of the retailers dont transfer all their BTC back into fiat soon after getting it, that would also create a residual amount of BTC left in their wallets that were bought but not sold. So, say 99% of BTC bought to be spent gets converted back into fiat by merchants, then theres a new flow of buyers who are 'hoarding' by default creating an extra buying pressure that wasnt there, even 6 months ago. Even if it's only 1% of BTC spent in retail, its still new buying pressure.
I doubt this is a reason the price will shoot up any time soon, but I think its a new note worthy 'buy' factor that creates a 'bottom' in the price that is v hard to penetrate.

Even if the rally doesnt happen, it would be the first time in years a peak didnt form at this period / cyclical interval, which would be weird:p

[profitofthegods]

The only realistically possible thing that could happen which could send the price shooting up like that in the next couple of months (that I can think of at least)  would be Paypal and/or eBay announcing a roadmap or definite timeframe for integrating Bitcoin.