Bitcoin Forum

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

No. I don't think so.

There is QE going on in the US. And the Americans are not buying coins like there is no tomorrow.

So i dont think the EU will either.

The ECB start QE? The last I checked the ECB, along with most other large central banks has been employing QE for years.

So a negative rate wasn't enought, what a surprise. Not long ago the ECB told us that QE wasn't necessary yet.

Can we get a link to the story?

And no, this will not immediately have any effect on the price of BTC.


Not the ECB itself, though some national central banks like in the UK have done so.

A related news story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-24/draghi-pushes-ecb-closer-to-qe-as-deflation-risks-rise.html (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-24/draghi-pushes-ecb-closer-to-qe-as-deflation-risks-rise.html)

Thanks :)

The Euro relative to the Dollar is at it's lowest rate in quite a while because the ECB only hinted at QE ....

I only have it in Greek, sorry. But you already got a link.

If the ECB does QE then EU stocks will go up like US stocks did in their QE phase.
Going leveraged long on EU indices is a much safer bet than gambling on bitcoin price appreciation due to ECB QE.

And so will stocks in emerging markets. The extra Euro will flow into other markets, cause their prices to go up, and crash once there is a hint of QE being withdrawn.

as a cycle analyst, i would not be buying stocks in any non-US market based on assumptions that QE will drive prices.  it could in fact make it worse.  look at the charts of Germany, Spain, and Italy.  they've all rolled over and assuming QE is going to change that is risky.  comparison to the US and QE is not appropriate as we have the world's reserve currency so the dynamic is different.  non-US economies tend to be much more fragile and prone to disruptions so the risk is high.  in fact, deflation may be starting to rear it's ugly head once again in a new cycle of downturns to come.  buying a falling knife could hurt.

So, it's CCMF really!!!

Could someone provide an easy explanation of what that means? I think we should have a short concise explanation in the opening post as to what this implies and potentially means for us. Preferably an objective and not too biased one ;)

The ECB will be printing many many euros to prevent deflation.

buy Bitcoin

Or stocks.

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

I wouldn't call bitcoin a "sure loss"... but at this point I'd say it has a good 50% (if not more) of fading to obscurity. The upside potential isn't nearly as fantastic as the pumpers here would like you to believe.

Also, keeping your money in fiat isn't "winning" but at least it's safe.

idk but if QE fails thats the end of the road for fiat.

Keeping one's money in fiat is a sure loss because of inflation. That's what I mean.

lol he thought you meant Bitcoin with a sure loss. That sure made me chuckle  :D

The two situations are quite different. The reason QE in the US hasn't led to rampant inflation/rush into commodities is because they've kept commercial interest rates low but the fed has singularly offered a favourable interest on excess reserves to banks.

This policy has arrested all the new money and pulled it back onto the fed balance sheets, so although the theoretical money supply has massively increased, it hasn't found its way into the economy. This policy has been successful so far in preventing a "Weimar" situation, but a couple of things could change all that:

[1] - a new round of wage growth which puts pressure on interest base rates to go up again

[2] - a currency war - e.g. with the Rouble or the Remnimbi

Europe, on the hand has been suffering from the opposite problem - deflation. Relaxed monetary policy by the ECB has suffered from a lack of "transmission" into the real economy. (To me and you that means that people are sick of debt and so haven't been borrowing. If they're not borrowing then no new money can be created and the economy suffers from a liquidity drain). There just isn't enough money around for the economy to grow. It's no use central banks printing money if the commercial banks can't "lever" that new capital via the fraction al reserve system.

In conclusion, I think a round of QE be the ECB won't have any net effect on Bitcoin, but will be symptomatic of the last 5 years of policy having failed to achieve growth. It might be seen as the ECB "throwing in the towel" and not knowing what to do next. It will probably boost the stock market in the short term cos there's nowhere else for the money to go.

All of this will be a precursor to major economic revaluation which could then see Bitcoin start coming to the fore as one of the "new economy" target commodities.

ECB is trying to stop deflationary collapse and prevent bank from going bust.

That will not work unless they do exchange control also since it will become cheaper to buy product/asset outside the EURO zone.

Capital control within the Euro zone might be required as well. The money might just flow into Germany, and not where it is required. :P

Need definitive action from ECB before btc and market will react to the artificially sea of liquidity.

But remember one thing, all assets price eventually collapsed when the money stop printing.

In essence, the banks never stop printing money. They need inflation to be there!

There is a limit on how much money central bank can print.

Tree can not grow to the sky before stagnant and then die out.

There's most definitely no limit in sheer amount.

The chances of bitcoin succeeding over the long term are no where near 99%. I would say that it is 50% at best. Also if you are going to be holding fiat for long enough then you might as well invest it in something that likely will have gains that exceed inflation.

50% don't make me laugh. Either you are very wrong or your and my definition of success is very very different.

What is the long term to you and how did you calculate that its chance is 50%?

I bet he went like: it will either happen, or it won't  :D

Southern EU countries have imposed capital controls and taxes on bank balances....but not enough yet to push Bitcoin

A little more of this and things might change quickly:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/11760/20_withholding_italy_announces_capital_controls_on_incoming_foreign_transfers

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/04/spain-tax-deposits-idUSL6N0PF2SF20140704

Sleepsheep need harder prodding to wake up, but when they are awake, the stampede will begin.  8)

By long term, I mean decades, much longer then the current life of bitcoin. I do not have any specific calculations to say bitcoin's success is at best 50%, but I do know that there is a lot that can go wrong and prevent bitcon from succeeding, mainly regulations, but there are also other unknown risks to bitcoin.

Satachi himself even said that the number of TX in 20 years will either be a huge amount or close to none (paraphrasing).

I personally have a lot of money invested in bitcoin, and personally think it will succeed, but it is not something I am relying on to be able to live comfortably.

The ECB has been implementing QE for almost as long as the US FED has been buying up US bonds as part of QE, just as the UK central bank has been doing QE (same with the Japanese central bank).

There cannot be a winner in this "passing the deflationary parcel" game. :)
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/08/global-economy-and-currencies

Longterm, QE will drive all prices up, not only Bitcoin's. Inflation is increasing in all developed countries. But inflated prices are not equivalent to more wealth. Increased purchasing power is what we want. That won't come from QE, it will come from bitcoin adoption.

ya.ya.yo!

QE essentially screws retired folks, who have invested their life savings in debt to get a steady return on income.

No. Most retired folks have home which they can still keep refinancing to strip the equity.

And since the refinancing rate is still low, this actually benefit them.

EUR isn't a dollar. It can't use USD-related bailout scenarios, otherwise EU will turn into Zimbabwe imho.

https://i.imgur.com/Gj4mGr6.jpg

!!!!MONEY!!!!  :D :D :D :D

It's a SPECIAL AGRO CHEQUE!  :o

Do want!

People have an emotional attachment to their homes. Not all of them are ready for a reverse mortgage yet. :)

Can you please prove us one thing?

What's the correlation / inter-relation between the event that's going to happen in the US and the price of Bitcoins?

What I think is, it's only gonna affect the actual fiat currency, i.e., $ and not the BTC...