ECB to start quantitative easing. Bitcoin beyond the moon?

[alexeft]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

I wouldn't call bitcoin a "sure loss"... but at this point I'd say it has a good 50% (if not more) of fading to obscurity. The upside potential isn't nearly as fantastic as the pumpers here would like you to believe.

Also, keeping your money in fiat isn't "winning" but at least it's safe.

Keeping one's money in fiat is a sure loss because of inflation. That's what I mean.

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[wachtwoord]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

I wouldn't call bitcoin a "sure loss"... but at this point I'd say it has a good 50% (if not more) of fading to obscurity. The upside potential isn't nearly as fantastic as the pumpers here would like you to believe.

Also, keeping your money in fiat isn't "winning" but at least it's safe.

Keeping one's money in fiat is a sure loss because of inflation. That's what I mean.

lol he thought you meant Bitcoin with a sure loss. That sure made me chuckle 

[toknormal]

No. I don't think so.

There is QE going on in the US. And the Americans are not buying coins like there is no tomorrow.

So i dont think the EU will either.

The two situations are quite different. The reason QE in the US hasn't led to rampant inflation/rush into commodities is because they've kept commercial interest rates low but the fed has singularly offered a favourable interest on excess reserves to banks.

This policy has arrested all the new money and pulled it back onto the fed balance sheets, so although the theoretical money supply has massively increased, it hasn't found its way into the economy. This policy has been successful so far in preventing a "Weimar" situation, but a couple of things could change all that:

[1] - a new round of wage growth which puts pressure on interest base rates to go up again

[2] - a currency war - e.g. with the Rouble or the Remnimbi

Europe, on the hand has been suffering from the opposite problem - deflation. Relaxed monetary policy by the ECB has suffered from a lack of "transmission" into the real economy. (To me and you that means that people are sick of debt and so haven't been borrowing. If they're not borrowing then no new money can be created and the economy suffers from a liquidity drain). There just isn't enough money around for the economy to grow. It's no use central banks printing money if the commercial banks can't "lever" that new capital via the fraction al reserve system.

In conclusion, I think a round of QE be the ECB won't have any net effect on Bitcoin, but will be symptomatic of the last 5 years of policy having failed to achieve growth. It might be seen as the ECB "throwing in the towel" and not knowing what to do next. It will probably boost the stock market in the short term cos there's nowhere else for the money to go.

All of this will be a precursor to major economic revaluation which could then see Bitcoin start coming to the fore as one of the "new economy" target commodities.

[Gargulan]

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

ECB is trying to stop deflationary collapse and prevent bank from going bust.

That will not work unless they do exchange control also since it will become cheaper to buy product/asset outside the EURO zone.

[botany]

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

ECB is trying to stop deflationary collapse and prevent bank from going bust.

That will not work unless they do exchange control also since it will become cheaper to buy product/asset outside the EURO zone.

Capital control within the Euro zone might be required as well. The money might just flow into Germany, and not where it is required.

[GangkisKhan]

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

Need definitive action from ECB before btc and market will react to the artificially sea of liquidity.

But remember one thing, all assets price eventually collapsed when the money stop printing.

[alexeft]

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

Need definitive action from ECB before btc and market will react to the artificially sea of liquidity.

But remember one thing, all assets price eventually collapsed when the money stop printing.

In essence, the banks never stop printing money. They need inflation to be there!

[GangkisKhan]

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

Need definitive action from ECB before btc and market will react to the artificially sea of liquidity.

But remember one thing, all assets price eventually collapsed when the money stop printing.

In essence, the banks never stop printing money. They need inflation to be there!

There is a limit on how much money central bank can print.

Tree can not grow to the sky before stagnant and then die out.

[wachtwoord]

Everyone expects that the ECB will start quantitative easing. Will that push bitcoin up?
I think it will!

What say you?

Need definitive action from ECB before btc and market will react to the artificially sea of liquidity.

But remember one thing, all assets price eventually collapsed when the money stop printing.

In essence, the banks never stop printing money. They need inflation to be there!

There is a limit on how much money central bank can print.

Tree can not grow to the sky before stagnant and then die out.

There's most definitely no limit in sheer amount.

[wasserman99]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

The chances of bitcoin succeeding over the long term are no where near 99%. I would say that it is 50% at best. Also if you are going to be holding fiat for long enough then you might as well invest it in something that likely will have gains that exceed inflation.

[wachtwoord]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

The chances of bitcoin succeeding over the long term are no where near 99%. I would say that it is 50% at best. Also if you are going to be holding fiat for long enough then you might as well invest it in something that likely will have gains that exceed inflation.

50% don't make me laugh. Either you are very wrong or your and my definition of success is very very different.

[alexeft]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

The chances of bitcoin succeeding over the long term are no where near 99%. I would say that it is 50% at best. Also if you are going to be holding fiat for long enough then you might as well invest it in something that likely will have gains that exceed inflation.

What is the long term to you and how did you calculate that its chance is 50%?

[wachtwoord]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

The chances of bitcoin succeeding over the long term are no where near 99%. I would say that it is 50% at best. Also if you are going to be holding fiat for long enough then you might as well invest it in something that likely will have gains that exceed inflation.

What is the long term to you and how did you calculate that its chance is 50%?

I bet he went like: it will either happen, or it won't 

[leopard2]

Southern EU countries have imposed capital controls and taxes on bank balances....but not enough yet to push Bitcoin

A little more of this and things might change quickly:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/11760/20_withholding_italy_announces_capital_controls_on_incoming_foreign_transfers

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/04/spain-tax-deposits-idUSL6N0PF2SF20140704

Sleepsheep need harder prodding to wake up, but when they are awake, the stampede will begin. 

[wasserman99]

And why would people ditch their fiat, which has a historically low, steady inflation rate for bitcoin, which has dropped in value 50% since the start of the year with no end in site?

See, you guys need to stop and think about this shit for a moment.

What is the difference between a sure loss and a 99.9% chance of winning?

The chances of bitcoin succeeding over the long term are no where near 99%. I would say that it is 50% at best. Also if you are going to be holding fiat for long enough then you might as well invest it in something that likely will have gains that exceed inflation.

What is the long term to you and how did you calculate that its chance is 50%?

By long term, I mean decades, much longer then the current life of bitcoin. I do not have any specific calculations to say bitcoin's success is at best 50%, but I do know that there is a lot that can go wrong and prevent bitcon from succeeding, mainly regulations, but there are also other unknown risks to bitcoin.

Satachi himself even said that the number of TX in 20 years will either be a huge amount or close to none (paraphrasing).

I personally have a lot of money invested in bitcoin, and personally think it will succeed, but it is not something I am relying on to be able to live comfortably.

[itsAj]

If the ECB does QE then EU stocks will go up like US stocks did in their QE phase.
Going leveraged long on EU indices is a much safer bet than gambling on bitcoin price appreciation due to ECB QE.

The ECB has been implementing QE for almost as long as the US FED has been buying up US bonds as part of QE, just as the UK central bank has been doing QE (same with the Japanese central bank).

[jjacob]

If the ECB does QE then EU stocks will go up like US stocks did in their QE phase.
Going leveraged long on EU indices is a much safer bet than gambling on bitcoin price appreciation due to ECB QE.

The ECB has been implementing QE for almost as long as the US FED has been buying up US bonds as part of QE, just as the UK central bank has been doing QE (same with the Japanese central bank).

There cannot be a winner in this "passing the deflationary parcel" game.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/08/global-economy-and-currencies

[yayayo]

Longterm, QE will drive all prices up, not only Bitcoin's. Inflation is increasing in all developed countries. But inflated prices are not equivalent to more wealth. Increased purchasing power is what we want. That won't come from QE, it will come from bitcoin adoption.

ya.ya.yo!

[jjacob]

Longterm, QE will drive all prices up, not only Bitcoin's. Inflation is increasing in all developed countries. But inflated prices are not equivalent to more wealth. Increased purchasing power is what we want. That won't come from QE, it will come from bitcoin adoption.

ya.ya.yo!

QE essentially screws retired folks, who have invested their life savings in debt to get a steady return on income.

[arbitrage001]

Longterm, QE will drive all prices up, not only Bitcoin's. Inflation is increasing in all developed countries. But inflated prices are not equivalent to more wealth. Increased purchasing power is what we want. That won't come from QE, it will come from bitcoin adoption.

ya.ya.yo!

QE essentially screws retired folks, who have invested their life savings in debt to get a steady return on income.

No. Most retired folks have home which they can still keep refinancing to strip the equity.

And since the refinancing rate is still low, this actually benefit them.