Bitcoin Forum

Suppose you knew exactly that the slump crypto currencies are in now will continue for another 12 months. There is capital flowing into crypto currencies, but it's not enough to move Bitcoin and alts higher, it's barely enough to keep cryptos afloat at the current level. What will be your actions if this situation goes on for another 12 months, till October 2015 (Bitcoin stays below $500, Top 5-10 alts stay at about the same price relative to Bitcoin)?

Karpeles could be selling HUGE amounts of stolen coins. If that is the case: you better be not in bitcoin.

I can see signs of trendreversal on many alts for weeks - some good pumps already again. Can't hold alts down much longer. If bitcoin can't hold the drink we'll have to leave it behind.

So if (big if) Karp-fuck is the cause of this, once people realise there will be a huge run for the good altcoins. Litecoin could even move in to replace the bitcoin in that scenario.

I am staying in Nxt!

Same here bro.

75% assets 25% NXT+BTCD

NXT and NEM, the latter pending . . .

nxt..btcd..qora..xcp..

no btc

80% BTC 20% NXT/NEM/ASSETS

ALt's for sure.
Now holding mainly Fibrecoin.

NXT seems to have done OK compared to the other alts. It might not be a bad investment if bitcoin keeps going down. Nevertheless I doubt bitcoin will keep falling for another 12 months, sooner or later I think it will go up again.

The next block reward halving should take place around summer/autumn 2016.  After Q2 next year some very large and institutional buyers should start to try and price that event in.  So we may not see the next bubble and correction until after that event happening late 2016.  After the first major bubble in 2011 to ~$30USD that peak bubble price wasn't matched for nearly two years.

I wouldn't recommend mostly investing in any altcoin.  Some are good for short to medium term speculation though.  I'd say no more of your cryptocurrency savings than 10% at the most in a basket of innovate altcoins.  Also all of the innovate altcoins will eventually be merged into Bitcoin sidechains and treechains.   

100% BTS. Not sure what's with all the NXT love around this forum...

Because we are NXTers ?  :D and we believe in it. No offense. 

nxtforum.org


take a look..

don't buy alt-crap fortheloveofgod

Who would do such a stupid thing when future alt-champions are for sale.

80% Bitshares, 10% NXT, 10% Bitcoin

Topic: Bear market to continue another 12 months  (Read 387 times)

14+23+5+5+8=55 Answers (14.2%)

If 8 people answered "Undecided" those are somewhat joining the other 387-55 peoples. Bitcointalk doesn't know what to do!

Well "it's barely enough to keep cryptos afloat" heavily depends upon the critically high inflation of cryptos. Somewhere 10% Inflation for Bitcoin had been mentioned (due to mining new coins) and staggering 30% for Litecoin, which I would not dare to touch as an investor.
(Can someone deliver precise numbers, or locate the posting that pronounced these? 25*6*24BTC a day against Total Supply, similar calculation for LTC mining.)

I think the dweebs are waiting to see if November 2013 will repeat in 2014.  I think that explains a lot of the holding action since March 2014.  If there is no boom in November / December 2014 then a lot of those holders, who were praying for a rebound for months, are going to cash out for $Fiat (cutting their losses after buying at $600-$1200) or convert into champion alternates


They've been informed but refused to believe it - November 2013 was all Willy Bot (MtGox using fractional reserves) and the Chinese racing in before they were cut off by their banks.

So the likelihood of another boom happen in November / December is virtually zilch.  Maybe the next boom will come with halving rewards or when Winky's ETF is passed through but I'm not really counting on it.


BTC's November boom did two things:  woke up a lot of hiberating whales (who are still dumping) and then created this professional mining class where they mine $2 million a day and have to dump 80% to pay for their electrical and hardware upgrades.  

It seems like for Bitcoin to go anywhere in price then they have to "bribe" all these whales (buy them out) but the miners cannot be bought out and are milking the system.

I will move 100% into altcoins.

currently in a mixed bag of speculative alt-coins.  They seem to be where the limited action seems to be currently.

Sad to admit Taun, that was on spot. Gox gone, what remains reminds of professional hookers who have to cash out 80% for cocaine each working day.

Taunsew is probably right. Maybe we'll see some desperate attempts to raise BTC prices, we'll see.

Already moved some 20% to NXT AE, will mothball 30% in BTC, planning to move another 10-15% to NXT AE and split the rest between a few promising stuff like Bitshares, Qora, NXT clones (20%) and tinkering on exchanges (10-20%).

I will move 100% to NXT

I'm already 100% in BTS / MUSIC / PLAY. I hopped off the proof of waste bandwagon as soon as I saw the potential for Decentralized Autonomous Communities to revolutionize collective human behavior and ledger based industries.

Organizational structures (companies for example) reflect the incentives of participating actors in their internal processes. BitShares aligns these incentives in an optimal way, and allows for the creation of a liquid democracy style of governance within the system to find consensus for hard fork proposals and delegates to hire, consequently creating jobs for developers, marketers, IT specialists, start up businesses, etc. mediated by contracts on chain.

Combine those factors with the market assets such as bitUSD and bitGOLD which allow you to hedge against volatility on chain & send / store fungible tokens that maintain a stable value, and you have created a very useful technology.

The alt-coin market is pretty dead. Primarily the volatility of Bitcoin/Altcoins don't make them very attractive for very many use cases.

BitAssets change that. You can now store the value of a dollar/gold in a completely decentralised way and earn interest. This changes everything for merchants, people living in high inflation countries, savers, remittances etc. http://whatisbitusd.com/

If anything will change the world in the next year it will be BitShares or some derivation of it, because of BitAssets. (Add more countries moving to negative interest and/or deposit confiscations then even more so.)

Basically this poll is to check your determination to hold on to Bitcoin even though it fails to reflect its 'explosive' network effect in the price in the next 12 months. Would you start to question the economics of Bitcoin and mining then and perhaps look into promising alt crypto technologies (which could rise in these 12 months if only because it doesn't take a lot of capital to move their market caps higher) or would you have enough resolve to hold your Bitcoin bag no matter that your ROI expectations have to be adjusted? If you don't know the answer now, be sure to give it a good thought some time in the next weeks and months.

I'm trying to make profit on various alt's and with the profit I buy more BTC

But for me it's all "playing money" ,more or less long term gambling on the second coming of BTC

I hedge in BTC in case BTS has some technical fault/exploit & because if there were serious deposit confiscations/financial problems in the next 60-90 days BTC would benefit most.

Long term though POW is unprofitable and centralised in BTC especially, so it's pretty inevitable Bitcoin will be replaced so I'll probably lower my BTC position over the next 12 months.

As I mentioned above BitAssets within BitShares are most likely to be the innovation that does it, though I don't how the market will perceive their new dilution/inflation system. They're starting marketing at the end of the month I think so we'll know soon enough.

 

I think we've hit bottom and are on a trend up now.  How long it lasts is an entirely different animal.  We won't see the $1000 prices, but I'd certainly like to see $500 again.

If I knew exactly what would happen for the next 12 months
Would convert to fiat invest it in Alibaba or something then put the money back into bitcoin a year later given the scenario given
The reason is I likely have a higher percentage of ownership than holding.

That said this is fairly low already so the situation you just described might not be the likely outcome despite all the selling and downward pressure from fiat conversions.

bear wont last 12 months from my pov , but we will see that in 2015 right :)

Nobody would want BitAssets or BitUSD if BitsharesX itself isn't doing too great.   There's really no reason for my to exchange my real dollars for fake dollars on BitsharesX, unless it is to trade for BTSx if the price goes lower but if everybody regards BTSx as a write off ("won't go anywhere") then nobody is going to put their dollars or assets on it.


There is already something with currency support called Ripple and technically Ripple would hold out better than BTC and BTSx in these bear porn scenarios as Ripple has established utility as a payment processor.  Still Ripple itself is pretty tiny in that payment processor industry when we consider PayPal and the probable hundreds of other competitors.

Convert 100% NXT+Assets/NEM/BTCD/SuperNET

and see it drop against BTC which itself is dropping against USD.

Being in BitASsests mean no gain. Much better to have Bitshares and follow closely as your developers changes the deal everyday which leaves the investors burnt. Theres big profits to be made there by trading smartly.

 
I'm all in NXT + XMR and soon I'll buy some silver coins (metal).

please....no!

Ripple is just a centralised gateway service with 500% inflation still to come. I've never owned XRP and probably never well. BitAssets let you store and trade the value of real world counterparts like gold/silver/dollar etc. in a completely decentralised way. They're completely different.

As I said on Aug 22nd


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=752258.msg8490849#msg8490849

You could have listened to TaunSew & stayed in NXT that week or Tripled it in BitSharesX. (Quintupled it, if you bought a few days earlier when I started posting.)

That opportunity has arrived again with the marketing launch starting at the end of this month. Unlike August though when BitAssets were first introduced and had flaws. (The reason for the subsequent 50% fall)  they have now been improved and have been functioning well, so it should be a big gain that will see BitAssets drive BitShares from strength to strength and not just a big short term gain.

So again I recommend investigating BitShares, BitAssets and their upcoming marketing for yourselves.

25% US real estate
60% US stock market - at least that pump has some real weight behind it. 100 years strong and still pumping.
10% USD - USD has fighter jets, stealth bombers, rockets, loaded aircraft carriers, tanks and corrupt politicians  behind it.  It's a win.
5% Crypto - Because I like to gamble.

5% crypto?... Isn't that kind of high?  :P

how about get out of alts 100% ? where is that option ?
why didn't you add that ?

I have told you around this forum sooooo many times i think your delusional OP

you are a champion of steadfast optimism around here endlessly no matter how bad the signs are.
I think you are lying to yourself because your bag holding Altcoins simple as that.
and in turn spoon feeding the whole scene crap to get more guys involved.

this is springboard topic for the goal of trying to smooth over nervous investors..

There are two options:
a) get into Bitcoin = get out of alts
b) get into fiat = get out of alts and out of Bitcoin

I am cautiously optimistic and only recommend what I have at least some faith in, based on fundamentals. Oh, and I realistically think the bear market will go on for another 12 months, how is that not good for the scene?

Spoetnik, what is your recommendation for crypto investors in 1-2 sentences for the next few months?

i have advised no altcoins for ages to people that ask.. none of them are worth bothering with.
and i don't mean MOON! later like devphp is suggesting..

he is delusional thinking it's juts a price slump.. wrong !

there has been an ongoing exodus from altcoins going on all year long..
and they are going to Bitcoin of course.

i see the price is rocketing up now too for BTC because it's mid month of course ;)
and people are cluing in the altcoin game is dead.
..not in a slump

But.. D E A D

PS: BTC @ $420 usd right now

altcoins = 1 billionth of a cent each ?

Spoetnik,

so what do you advise exactly, get out of alts into Bitcoin? Bitcoin to da moon? Let's see if this is a dead-cat bounce for Bitcoin and a bull trap.

altcoins bad, mmmkay... proof-of-whatever, clueless developers, users driven by BTC FOMO, signature campaigns... it is obvious to any sentient being why one shouldn't bother with them at all. Unless you are speculating on them fast-in-fast-out, and even then you should feel dirty inside.

Personally I feel the music was over for 99.9% of cryptos 6 months ago, anyone who thinks any of the latest cryptos aren't simply a quest for more instant fiat by the devs is just lying to themselves.

Despite the constant fud sooner or later the smart alt money will default back to ltc.

i want you and others to drop the stock market jargon like IPO and Bull Market this and that..
get a grip on Reality this is nothing like a stock market so the never ending comparisons and behavior application is completely invalid.
you continue to yet again and forever push on with this portrayal that this is something it's not.. a REGULATED (digital version) stock market.
What is it ?
A pioneering method of running digital ponzi schemes or maybe closer to a multi level marketing scheme like the classic Walter Filter scams of the 80's
..in a lawless environment !
so far.

What we have is a new way for people to rip each other off and it's so new there is no laws yet.
The REAL stock market has been vetted and established for a 100 years !
DO NOT pretend this is some kind of extension of that.. it's not !

each and every single one of you out there know damn well the law is coming and fast
and much of what goes on would have gotten guys jail time hard and fast in a real stock market already.
get it ?
So what do i suggest ?
Never mind me.. keep playing stock market with digital pyramid schemes just make sure you deal with the law when they come knocking LOL

Martha Stewart was behind bars for insider trading so how many guys in crypto would be in jail for that ?

seriously just cut the crap already and quit playing dumb so you can keep pushing "schemes"
and i want all of you delusional guys out there to read this and then look in the mirror !

http://mvhsoracle.com/features/my-experience-with-a-pyramid-scheme

that link will be a scary mirror to the antics and behavior of many of you around here i watch day to day.
i see the same methods used and worse !

or Google search keywords..

Water Filter
multi level marketing scheme
ponzi scheme
pyramid scheme

edit:
here is the last paragraph of that link i just posted..


The difference between that story and this crap is most guys here KNOW damn well that they are buying into is a sleazy / shady scheme !
So this Altcoin shit is waaaay worse !

So many words, Spoetnik. But at the end of the day everything is a pyramid. In every market, regulated or not, assets grow as long as there are buyers. As soon as you run of buyers, the asset drops. Regulations don't add anything to this, need proof? See the dotcom boom of the 90s. Or real estate boom and bust of the 2000s. Many people got burned and lost their shirts. You talk too many words, but all you mean is "stay out of the free market, because you can get hurt". Are you from the gubermint to save us, do you advise to purchase gubermint bonds?

how about get out of alts 100% ? where is that option ?
why didn't you add that ?

short enough for ya ?

get it yet ? LOL

you created a broken / biased joke of a Poll guy hahhaha

edit:
by the way "gubermint" gives away some of your dummy accounts now ;)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=852011.msg9517808#msg9517808

Tell me which are my dummy accounts, Sherlock? Can't wait to see the list :)

bull coming back! :D

It's very unlikely, just a correction of the bear market, like the one back in May-June, $500 will not be conquered this year.

I was under the impression that the stock market is horribly rigged with high freq trading, so why would I ever consider that an option?

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/04/its-not-just-the-stock-market-thats-rigged-the-entire-status-quo-is-rigged/#more-72092

Yeah, I can't imagine that the value of a Bitcoin will go any higher than 1000$ before the next halving. Sure a lot of new money is pumped into it everyday, but I doubt that it's enough to compensate for the 3000+ new coins created every day (most of them instantly sold for fiat), plus all the coins sold by hackers and being sold by people who get bored with it because they thought in November-December last year that it was foolproof way to get rich quickly.

You still don't get it LOL

It's not about how many accounts you have it's about how many are now dormant and abadoned.

you are shockingly blind and your optimism is unfounded and i just don't get your staunch militant stance in defiance of reality slapping you across the face.

i actually honestly think your nuts !
Not saying that to be mean or insulting i just think you and the other guys who share your outlook on altcoins are straight up bat shit crazy LOL
and because of that the scene is doomed !
nothing will get fixed when your run around acting like things are going great.. as more and more people leave dumping shit coins.

i should just give up.. i am talking to a wall  ::)

do you forget how many guys spouted shit at me and sold out and wandered off ?
I was told it was IMPOSSIBLE for IFC to go down in value.. it sure as bloody hell did and no it never came back.. it's fucking dead.
Then go look at the hoards of mouthy kids spouting off to me on my "Doge Coin is Bad" topic.. it's a ghost town now (they vanished)
So what happens as i predicted exactly is you guys will argue mouth me off make a big stink then eventually clue in later and quietly cash out and wander off
..possibly ripping someone off for one big last cash grab on the way out the door.
like a huge pile of light bulbs.. gradually more and more come on one by one and then guys leave !
and the guys left hanging around are seeing it honestly or are delusional or just being dishonest to *try and protect their bags their holding.

so RIGHT NOW ..right HERE ..i am wasting my time.. you will all mostly be gone and i won't be able to see a name i even recognize to say, "I told you so" too !
devphp i don't know who the fuck you ever are buddy LOL
the guys i did know around here are long gone and now optimistic nooby's are trying to lecture me on this stuff  LOL  ::)

Noobs wake the fuck up and listen to me i know what i am talking about and i am not talking shit because of the bags i am holding like most guys here.
i am one of the few speaking unbiased ;)

edit:
i have said soooooooooooo many times here guys are either delusional or dishonest or both here most of the time.
dumb people trying to bullshit smart people will not work and it is NOT working right now.. cut the crap guys admit there is a problem and fix it.. or drown period .

Its funny how the same patterns keep happening over and over. We need another halving and it's not coming till 2016. This next year will be another scary, diehard believer accumulation phase.

It is like a cleansing stage, only the good coins will prevail. Although I am a bit surprised at NXT

100% BitShares

You talk too much, but say very little. So you can't name any of my 'dummy accounts'? That's understandable, because either you're a bad Sherlock or there is no other accounts just this one I am using now, take your pick.

WOW you are too much.. i'm wasting my time with you clearly.
I talk too much ? go fuck yourself.. thanks for insulting the massive effort i made here to talk to you like an adult.
i tried like hell to get my point across and you act like a dog pulling its head away when it's nose is rubbed in poop on the floor.

i think your an idiot.
And i base that on the large volume of comments you have made around here for quite some time.. not because of this topic alone.
Your a waste of my time.
If you don't hide later i will be saying I told you so ..wait for it ;)

More of your blahblahblah, Spoetnik. Did you get offended because I called you a bad Sherlock? Man up, dude, it's life, life's unfair and you can't be good at everything )

What exactly are you going to tell me 'told you so' about? You didn't tell me anything that would look like a prediction that we both can see proof of in the future. Again, like I said, your posts are lengthy, but the real value in them is little if any at all.

I'd stick with my current plan.  Use alts to increase my btc supply.  If you ask me, most alts will fail in 6 months or less.  So, get in, make profit, and get out.  bitcoin's price will rise and fall, but until someone tops it, it is THE coin to invest in.

+1.  It's a hard shakeout.

This bear market is part of the bubble phase of 2013, the willy bot did a lot of damage to the organic growth, irrational exuberance moods were galore among investors, now that has to be completely shaken out before prices can start rising again.

The problem is, even though the healthy value of an asset may be N and during the bubble phase it temporarily goes to the unsustainable N + X, when it corrects during the bear market it doesn't simply go back to N, but it overshoots (just like it did during the bubble phase) and goes to N - Y. Yes, this is stating the obvious, but the significance of this is that based on this fact bear markets take a long time to unfold (2 years on average), as investors start to buy when it goes back to N thinking the bear market is over and they can now buy at the fair value, but the market plays a trick and goes even lower, which prolongs the damage to investor sentiment.

Now what does that bring us to? Bitcoin fair value price right now could be at $300-400 range, but that doesn't mean it can't go lower, N - Y as a final shakeout. That's not so much of a problem per se unless you use leverage, but if it did dive like that, it would likely add another few months to the bear market as sentiments are depressed, hence my projection that no recovery ($500+) is possible till November 2015. Coupled with the halving of block rewards still some 20-21 months away which keeps the inflation rate at a substantial level and short-term strengthening of the USD, I estimate the likelihood of this scenario to be no less than 70%.

Who has voted for moving to alts? It is overall bear market in altcoins, speculation for 10x profit, miners selling their coins at irrational price, irrational trading of PnD coins. that take new capital to wrong coins & scare away noob investors etc. This severe bear trend should kill the most of the junk, copycat, PnD coins. There are rooms for 10-15 coins (considering there are 100s of fiats & other forms of currency) and profit for everyday miners. Bitcoin mining is being industrialized, we need a community that can mine with GPU and CPU with profit and can support and uphold Crypto-currency.

what surprises you at NXT?

That it has all the signs of a scam premine coin. About 50 people have extreme amounts of NXT, the rest has shit. When, not if, but when they decide to dump, bye bye NXT

That's why I don't buy Microsoft shares. Have you seen how many Steve Ballmer and Bill Gates have?  :o  :o


Therefore, Microsoft as a company is worth nothing and it shares should be valued at zero dollars. Don't buy Microsoft, when Ballmer decides to dump then it's bye bye Microsoft...

LOL Furio, you've just got ass-busted  :D

I hold about 50% of my portfolio in BTC and the other 50% is in trusted alts like BlackCoin, DarkCoin and APEX.

That's a very aggressive position. But I understand that some people want to do it this way, and are counting on alts to grow much more than BTC. That said, I would only invest in trusted alts like BC, DRK, APEX and some old ones like LTC and PPC.

Why not?  Bitcoin is only 500K - 2 million users.  The internet had 3 million users in the late 1980s.   Jeffrey Robinson himself said Bitcoin is 250K users and is smaller than the frequent flyer club of Kuwaiti airlines.  PayPal is 150 million users.  Whatsapp has 600 million users.  Facebook has 1.2 billion users.

It seems like a credible theory that some alternate, better at promotion and user base expansion, could go viral and surpass Bitcoin's small userbase within months and people here will be asking themselves what just happened.

Like corporate life and Bitcoin/crypto can be compared... Centralized vs decentralised, jeeeez, some people..

NXT is shit and has a few big holders, that's it

Better lay of the shrooms ;) Microsoft compared to Next, idiots....

my portfolio: 30% bitcoin, 30% litecoin, 40% peercoin. Mixture of bitcoin and two successful alt coins.

Same happens to Bitcoin, you cocklord!

Totally agree - great perspective. imho, bitcoin squandered much of its past year of fame and someone else is (hopefully) going to pick up the ball and make crypto a smashing success.

Perhaps bitcoin's name has been tarred with the same brush as the silk road in some people's minds. It's unfortunate that a large number of people heard about bitcoin because of it's use on the silk road. Alternate crypto's are mostly free of that kind of bad publicity and that might be a factor that helps one surpass bitcoin.

MtGox will be giving a statement they're reinstating btc withdraws. People will buy btc there and leave to other exchanges to sell those cheap coins. The price at the other exchanges will stay low because of the steady income of cheap coins from MtGox.

Or

MtGox is insolvant and we'll see a crash on all exchanges.

After this entire debacle we'll be going up.

wow 31.6% say Move 100% to alts I thought I am the only crazy bastard.

We need to choose our investments with extra caution,
I believe most of the alts/coins/assets/platforms will take major hits and even die.

I also believe that few will stay around and those will climb in price significantly.

Just my opinion :P

Are you arguing the shareholders of Microsoft are centralised? You might try and construct an argument based around risk but these comments make no sense.

Both have large holders who have a big interest in seeing their organisations be successful, if only for their own self interest in maintaining their own wealth.

Almost all my crypto friends sell their rigs. It's not looks good.

Miners are realising that they can't compete with the mining farms built by the equipment manufacturers.
And the sad thing is that these mining farms instantly sell all their coins, in opposition with the olden-days miners who majoritarely were holders.

That's a good reason to forecast a bear market.

%100 in Litecoin.

About 66% of my holdings are invested in SuperNET and SuperNET core coins, mainly Nxt and BTCD.

bearmarket is done. Buy, buy, fuckin panicbuy (everything) bitches!  ;D

If SuperNet delivers, (and it seems so) it will be a complete game changer. Expect 10x for the value of the 66% of your portfolio.

+1

Currently suiciding myself again on many alts with hopes for mid-term stagnation / slight rise.
Other than that, I like that the forum is slowly adopting the negativist outlook - once everyone loses hope, the smart money will buy again... and before everybody realises, we are atop again.

Just a remainder - Bank of America estimated BTC to be $1500 by the end of year

+1

Ripple is all held by internal insiders while a lot of these companies have a lot public stakeholders with no affiliation with the company anymore.

The percentage of public stock in these companies is higher than the "public" coins of Ripple (less than 10% of total supply)
 

Bank of America, especially that analyst, have no idea what they're talking about & have been wrong countless times before. Good luck to all.

Really? I feel that the forum has been very pessimist (at least for short or mid-term) since last February, except for the few permabulls.

I'd probably move into cash and pick and choose altcoins that appear undervalued.

50/50

50% BTC 50% ALTCOIN