Bitcoin Forum

I locked this.  notlist3d is running a new diff thread.

for dec 30  2014 to  jan 12 2015


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473.new#new


here is the  thread link. for dec 2 to dec 17  we had a -1.37%  adjustment.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=881394.0


I self moderate.  As I really almost never need to  but just in case some one curses or insults too much.

please do not reply until I really start it.  Thanks


looks like new diff is 39.4  with 1 block to go.  Unless we get a hour long block.


price for BTC is $326.24 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

okay bitcoincharts has it at about -0.12%

bitcoinwisdom has it at about -0.32%

   reserve for charts.

  This set of diff numbers represent the network's growth since s-1's stopped being sold and s-3' started being sold.
I feel this was the beginning of network's slower growth and price drifting downward


Difficulty History

Date   --------------Difficulty----   Change-----   Hash Rate
Dec 16 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328     1.76%      288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252    10.05%      283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265     2.81%      257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026     0.98%      250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924    16.20%      248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124     8.75%      213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902    15.03%      196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039    20.86%      170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941     5.30%      141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558     8.08%      134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979     3.08%      124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%      120,391,236 GH/s

So with wed thur and fri to go with the paycoin rush .  rates will stay low.  I really want to see what happens say

sat 21  do we jump 5% in a day?

Very pleased by the decrease in the last jump - but it wont last.

Paycoin has about 20PH+ of SHA-256 miners pointed at it (a mix of new equipment and equipment that wasnt profitable just days ago like the S1). In a few days when the mining stops most of that hashrate will return to bitcoin and this difficulty increase will likely be close to 7.5%

Probably not. None of the charts, at least the ones on bitcoinwisdom, are daily. The smallest resolution is 504 blocks, i.e ~3-4 days, so there might be a slight bump, or maybe it will be obscured by one of those variance spikes or dips.

As for the next adjustment I'd say if BTC stays below 350 we'll see a difficulty decrease and vice versa.

It is Thurs the 18th of Dec  diff is (-1.81%)   BTC is 310 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


A definite coin price to diff  percent  is starting to show up.
Tommorrow the GAW-ZEN-PAYCOIN  asic  256 mining is supposed to end.  The promised price of 20 usd per paycoin has drifted down to 6 dollars.
I will be looking at their site and btc wisdom a lot on Fri. 

 I want to see how this unfolds.

I am truly amazed to see two negatives in a row at this point.   I am curious what will happen to hashrate in about two days when paycoin mining stops.

It truly a amazing time to be a miner this week.

1) i doubt that paycoin will reach $20. GAW and the private investors it convinced to buy into paycoin will have to throw insane amounts of cash at it to justify a fixed $20 price. Clearly this is a common train of thought since its trading at only 30% of its 'value'. (Ive mined about 10 XPY so far and might actually buy 0.25BTC worth just in case)

2) theres something like 50 PH ponted at paycoin right now. when the POW period ends i expect that ~60% of that mining power will go back into bitcoin mining. The rest will return to altcoins or be turned off again in the cases where >1w/gh gear was turned on again just to mine XPY for the week.

3) the return of that hashrate to bitcoin minng will probably put BTC back up to about 290PH, but may be too late to push this difficulty adjustment into the positives.

my guess: -1% this jump, +6% next jump


amen. 20TH netted me over 1.5BTC in the last 36hrs, and probably another 0.7 BTC in the next 24hrs. compared to expected earnings of ~0.6BTC for that same 60hrs Im very pleased and Ive got a good feeling about my recent investment in 3x SP31 units

Im sitting at 16-17T.  I paid off my electricity this month during this so I am completely happy.  I am mining a few paycoins just because I enjoy the unknown.  That being said I still am banking on BTC.   I renting 1/2 of them in BTC and mining 1/2 of paycoin for a day or so just to get a few.

I will be shocked if they go for 20 dollars anytime soon. I don't see GAW reaching that deep into their pocket but I could be wrong.

HUmmmmmmm if we go below $277 massive mines might shut off destroying the hashrate.. perhaps driving the price even lower causing a massive downwards spiral until only hobby miners are left...


I am tempted to say we are -.2% - .2% this change and the price movement over the next month or so will determine if large miners keep going.

massive farms generally have cheaper power. AT this point, most people are trying to unload anything thats >1.2w/GH (most of the buyers at this efficiency have cheap power or bad math skills). Anything between 0.9-1.2W/GH is similar, where theres more benefit in liquidating and replacing with 28nm stuff that can do <0.7w/GH

we have reach the point that you need an s-3 or better.  

So a lot of gear is going to leave the mining world.

The key here is BTC price to diff ratio.  300 usd a coin =  really flat  growth or a little drop in the rate.  

even a big guy will have second thoughts on dumping  1ph in s-3's for 1.5ph in sp20's.

I perfectly timed going from s-3 to sp20.  More luck then any other reason, but it does feel good.

I know what you mean. There been times when ive looked back at hardware purchases and been sad, but more often i look back and realise i got in the right moment. I bought both S1 and S3 units at the beginning of thier lifecycles, and they retained value far longer than i expected. When i bought the S3 units I expected them to underclock around janruary and turn of in may. Now it seems more like March/August respectively.

(that said, I sold most of mine to get a trio of SP31 units and pay my $CAD power bills) - Its exciting to see that people can get 1TH/400W from the SP20. An Sp31 could achieve 3.75TH/1.5kW, perhaps even better than that eventually, using similar settings

Really? I would be interested in running SP30 at 1440w (one 15A circuit) at some point. Is there a thread for underclocking SP30 or I can pretty much follow SP20 settings?

I don't think it will be too late for diff to grow in this period when 30PH return back. Still 75% blocks to solve, so just by using simple math if starting tomorrow 70% remaining blocks will be mined 10% faster (very conservative, it's about 25PH) and previous 30% blocks have been mined 5% slower we will end at +6%. But it will be fun to watch anyway.

Don't forget that most hashrate difficulty indicators (e.g bitcoinwisdom) are lagging, so we are just now starting to see the beginning of the Paycoin craze reflected on the charts. It may dip a lot lower than 5% before it starts going up. Just speculation of course, but I was watching XPY difficulty and it's averaging 4-5 times more than it did at the beginning of the week (and that number is less lagging than Bitcoin's due to much faster block times).

Well bitcoinwisdom is at (-3.69%)  price is 312 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:   38,000,016,219 (-3.69%)
Adjust time:   After 1703 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):   257,402,513 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:40 (4.0 minutes ago)

might hit -5% on sunday morning
monday is going up up up!

not sure 100% of SP30 specs, but yes, you would follow similar instructions. limit the maximum voltage and start voltages by about 0.05V each and see how that works out. The other way is to change the PSU draw limits, reducing them by 100-200W each.

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,948,264,061 (-3.83%)
Adjust time:    After 1626 Blocks, About 11.8 days

Sat morning here in NJ, USA

(-3.83%)  next diff

324 usd current price


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Numbers are nice usd price is a little better.

I sold a second coin.  this one for 328

So since the paycoin boost on west hash/nice hash  let me earn 2.77 coins instead of .7 coins

 I was 2.07 coins better off.  I hedged and sold 2 coin in the last few days…… thus I have .77 coins which is still more then the .7 I would have earned if the paycoin boost did not happen.

But I have 680 cash in the bank from the 2 coins…   This is  a certain and done deal.

I am looking to hold my coins for now. But I kind of wanted to spend a little cash for the holidays.

^+1 its been a great week.

My XPY experience is similar: during the timespan that would have netted around 0.75BTC ive made about 2.4BTC on nicehash and directly mined 12XPY (about 0.3BTC)

when paycoin ends, Ill drop back to bitcoin mining and its likely the difficulty wont scale up quickly enough to go positive for the next jump. my money is still on a -1% change this period, which alone is a great christmas ROI bonus

paycoin looks like its not doing too hot though. the 'magic $20+ face-value coins' are still only $6 each on the free market which means GAW will have scammed a lot of investors, or be forced to throw a lot of money into buying back at $20 as they promised to

Gaw has the money if they use so much of it to bring up to 20 no one knows.   I to enjoyed nicehash extra profits.   I also mined a few XPY for fun.   Will just hold those for the fun of it.   

they only have to bring 'staked' coins to that price.  

so if you do not have an account on zen with a staker you get the going price.


I have 2 stakers and 5 staked coins.  not too much to worry about. one way or the other

XPY mining has been extended until noon EST Sunday: https://hashtalk.org/topic/24715 Nope, 0 rewards. Nothing to see here, move along :)

Yea I thought the same.  You can mine another day but zero reward. 

Guess back to BTC for us all.  Now interesting to see what BTC does.

nice hash is back to regular payouts.
It was fun while it lasted. I did not get in in the first two days, so got just ~3X payout. Not bad.

Bitcoinwisdom's estimate is now down to -4.66%, haha. I think the last few days is just variance, I'm guessing somewhere around -1 to -3% next diff if the hashrate stays relatively steady.

 yeah I saw that would be nice as long as price is over 320 usd.

 a  while to go 11 days

Where ya been? It wasn't variance! Everyone was selling their hash to Paycoin miners, lol. But the POW phase ended today and everyone is back to mining BTC.

XPY rebounded nicely to ~$10. I have now sold off the last of my Peecoin. Now we just need someone to come up with another SHA scamcoin that gets all of the clueless fools excited again. I heard Titcoin was pretty sweet.  :D

XPY was a great coin for us miners.   I was able to get in on second day on.  Mined a few of my own when the crazy rental's died off.   Most exciting sha mining in quite a while.

I've heard from a very reliable source that Titcoin has a floor of one trillion dollars.

And to pretend that this is not off topic: we are 25% into the current cycle, and 5% down in that interval. I think at halfway point (3-4 days from now) we'll be around zero and then it will depend on the exchange rate.

Sounds like I missed out on titcoin. Damn!

Well at least I got in on nicehash rentals at an insane rate for a few days. That's probably worth a pair of titcoins...

well dang, it did. Looking at some charts theres a 50%+ upswing in the last 24hrs. shouldve bought up a bitcoin worth while they were rock bottom, and sold before they next hit rock bottom

I don't have a lot in paycoin. 5 of them , but it would be good if it sticks around as the second tier coin to BTC.

  I think if it worked out okay it would help BTC.  It has some strength that BTC does not have. It has some flaws that BTC does not have.
Remember LTC was silver and BTC was gold. Was not true but this coins does have quite a few different options.
(Biggest flaw is central control by GAW-ZEN).  It is supposed to be be very liquid to spend at a regular store.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,460,709,208 (-5.06%)
WAW! :o

I have an idea that may explain the drop but I will wait until tues before I post the idea.

Keep in mind that this is based on the last X blocks - not sure how big X is but quite sure at this moment it still includes the peak of XPY mining. This will fall off in a few days, so there is going to be bump up, question is - how much exactly.

I believe it is 504 or ¼   of the 2016 in the adjustment.  If so We  still had pressure up to  sat so 3 days after sat is tues.  We should see big gains well 2-4 %  and since we are 4.5% neg we may get back to -1% by late tues or early  weds.

What kind of adjustment do you mean? Block size halving (August 2016) is still too far away for miners. I'd say only hardware producers are pretty aware of it :)

Difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks... you know, in the title of the thread  ;D

 ;D lol my bad, got it

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,278,293,015 (-5.52%)
Adjust time:    After 1299 Blocks, About 9.6 days

Also on a sidenote the S5 ships Dec 27th.  Will be interesting to see effect of that on hash rate.

Yeah I think we are going to end up + for sure this diff jump

we will surge up in the next 3 days for sure for reason that OP posted (burn in), so you are right, we might get to par or -1%.
next one will be at least +3-5%

s5 shipping is too late to make a big splash. i'm still waiting for returning brothers that fought for xpy...

The XPY machines most should have made it back by now.   There are some chances are still on rental sites and nicehash still, but most should be back soon (If not already it's been days since XPY gave rewards for mining).

I would not say to late.  In 5 days they ship.  We will see testing (burn-in's) prior to that.   It's safe to say we will see a increase in hash rate.   We cannot predict what that is.  

But expect something to be replacing those old Dragons, etc. Most have cheap electricity, and not shut down. It could be SP gear, or Bitmain.  The advantage with SP would be something like sp-35 you get around 5T per and are all ready for rack mount.

I don't know if it will be enough to go positive or not this round but it will go up some.

I would say -2% should be OK for the next diff. S5 seems again a bit high in price but ppl will buy it anyways
XPY mining has ended a couple of days a go so whoever wanted to come back is already back. Most likely some S1s and other old is now completely off after the XPY rental boom

my brothers are back!
or is it bitmain or other producer that hit the switch?
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,864,384,817 (-4.04%)

8:59 AM
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Beijing Time (CST) +0800 UTC
i think they hit it!

they burn in S5 before shipping-my take, which makes it ~20-30PH of S5=15-20K machines ????

I would agree I think most are already back from paycoin.  I think we will see quite a bit of S5 burn in.  They seem to sell quite a few each release.  With this being a new chip a lot will probley buy.

Honestly I don't see the S5 making that big a difference. It really is too late when you compare it against the competition. Now that we know the S5 specs and price, it doesn't seem all that compelling.

For example, if I'm reading it right the S5 has no DC/DC converters which means that programable over or under clocking is out of the question for most users with standard power supplies. Also, it sounds like if there's a single ASIC failure in the chain, the whole chain falls over.

While all of this adds up to cheaper construction and better profits for Bitmain, it means the S5 is less flexible and likely has lower resale value potential than the competitors like the SP20. If you can't effectively under clock an S5, then what value will it have a few months from now?

Add in the fact that the free review models of SP20's have resulted in enormous PR on this forum. Those SP marketing folks really know how to effectively schmooze. Bitmain's PR and communication skills just don't compare.

Sure, some people will buy the S5. People like Bitmain and they like shiny new things, and they will buy it without doing their homework.

But it's not going to be a game changer for the next (or any) difficulty adjustment.

I'd be more worried that Spondoolies reduces the SP20 price again. If they knocked off another $200 (unlikely, but who knows), and if they could build them fast enough, they might move enough units to propel the difficulty again.

Hell, I'd probably buy more and have no idea where I'd put them (they are loud!)

^1 in a chain failing will almost certainly have no effect - the chain is only new in the way it divides voltage across chips, and the chip design should still act as a load even if the chip is disabled. Unlikely to be a major failure

^2 the s5 could more easily be undervolted by adding additional chips of some other form of voltage drop to the series circuit. If bitmain was smart they would incorporate some sort of toggle/dummy-load or make an easy way to plug a 3-chip module onto the board to effectively knock down the voltage/chip to improve efficiency down the road

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,954,117,875 (-3.81%)
Adjust time:    After 1118 Blocks, About 8.1 days
Hashrate(?):    281,289,994 GH/s

Looks like we are gaining a little hashrate slowly.

the battle looks to start between the s5 and the sp20. 

1) the sp20 is now in a group buy 2 for 1000
2) the s5 dropped from 450 to 418
3) I have been offered a free demo s5  from bitmain  for me to do a review on it.  I said yes and will post a review when the time come.

I will take the s-5 and do a stand alone review .  Next I will try to do a fair compare between the s-5 and sp20.

Now I know a lot of people will think hashrate will move high due to this.

 well  this gear is going to make all gear over .8 pretty much unless.  and even s-3's will not be too good unless you have really good power prices.

do u believe that? i believe they just test the market and 418 was the real price, or maybe it's even lower...

Well I don't know but plug in 418 and say 42 to ship  so 460 usd

it makes money using 4% diff jumps 332 coin price  and 10 cent power  and .55 watts at the wall per gh

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1280x1024q90/537/wrGMz8.png

difficulty is getting so HIIIGH now with the new S5 !!! you might have to rethink your plans with only 4 % diff increase :P

Longterm diff calcs are really hard.  Last summer I joined the camp that  thought diff was going to slow a lot.  It has.  I do not know if 4% for the next 6 months is right or wrong.  it is possible.
If the sp20  the sp31 the sp 35 all do .5 watts  If the s-5 does .53 watts.

They will make the s-3 worth very little. So a lot of the s-3's will go off line. S-4's will stick a round longer.  Thus a limiting factor to new growth is 50ph of the network has to be in s-3's soon they stop making money. 

At 4% 326 usd a coin and  10 cent power an s-3 makes 3 dollars a month in Aug 2015.
At   15 cents it makes 2 dollars a month by April 2015. So the s-3 will be at end of useful life in the spring of 2015 for some of us and by the summer of 2015 it will be at end of life for most owners of it. They come off line diff gets downward pressure.

Of course if price jumps to 600 usd  all of the above is wrong and diff will jump faster.

 

today we are at (-3.68%)

About 7.2 days to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 326 usd

S5 is up and running for more than 1 month! it will not make much difference in the % of difficulty ;)

yep there is that  burn in factor.

right now it looks like sp20 vs s-5 showdown .   once a lot  of these  devices two come online to us miners.  

All .8 watt and above  does not turn a profit.

  at the current btc price of 326.

 the s-3  does not pay for the power it burns if you are a 22 cent a kwatt miner with the current diff of 39m

at  the diff of 55M it does not pay for power costing 16 cents.

at the diff of 86M it does not pay for power costing 10 cents.

at the diff of 104M it does not pay for power costing 8 cents.

A lot of:

S-5's
Sp20's
Sp31's
Sp35's

Will mean very few if any s-1's. 
Almost no dragon miners.
Almost no S-2's
A lot less S-3's
A little less S-4's

So all of that gear going off line will mean diff does not go skyhigh.
I think the really big players have had second thoughts about mining as a cloud op. 
Or mining and cashing coins. 
The coin price of 285-350 usd   makes them very vulnerable to a BTC price drop.
So selling new gear to miners is looking more attractive to them.

It's looking like a possible positive difficulty change:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,092,892,001 (-0.92%)
Adjust time:    After 870 Blocks, About 6.0 days

In 6 days if we could see a little positive.   Even if we do it's been a good month as a miner.

I do agree with phil on machines.  I am lucky with a decent amount of cheap electricity.  I plan on going through winter with 1 dragon.   After that (maybe before) I will retire it and try to sell it to one of those with "free" electricity.

Rest of my gear will easily make it through winter, then I will see what I decide to mine during summer and what gets sold.

Merry Christmas and to all a good night!  I have lots of cake to eat in the morning.

For this jump +2.5% the  next jump we will see. 

so much for the decrease ...
the hashing rate is going to the moon !

Spondoolies started burning in the more than 200 SP20s they sold yesterday and BUTMAIN are doing the same with the S5s
Once all those get to their owners we will be up until the S1 and S2 guys decide to stop them.

200 SP20 is not that much, I guess Bitmain is selling thousands of S5s, that is what is really affecting hash rate right now !

no the switchback from paycoin trails the stats.  at this point I think all the switchback is now shown and some sp20's are up.
The s-5's should not hit the network in bulk until the next jump. 

I see a good jump in Jan I guess the 13th of Jan 2015 I see 4-5%.  The jumps after that 3-4%.

difficulty skyrocketing, price going down
everything is great !
merry xmas to every miner !
or rather ... ABORT MISSION EVERYONE !

http://s28.postimg.org/ck6g64ohp/abort.jpg (http://postimage.org/)

http://s28.postimg.org/s4dtwnym1/abort_mission.jpg (http://postimage.org/)

http://s28.postimg.org/9fvs9c7p9/post_28799_mission_abort_gif_rocket_FAIL_8x_Zl.gif (http://postimage.org/)

I would not mind price dropping and holding at 250-275  this would force diff to drop.

exactly, it would be nice for difficulty to drop 30-40, even 50%.
I am pretty confident that it would drop at least 30% at $250

I hope it does not dip quite that low.  A lot of miners seem to leave in no matter profit or not so common sense does not always win out.

Personally I always am doing new ROI each change seeing how I look and if I need to unplug any gear.

There are a lot of scenarios when miners are forced to prepay for electricity. PBmining was this was (before they imploded). There are also a lot of hosting companies that force their customers to prepay for electricity to lock in low rates for several months. As a result they are essentially forced to keep their miners on even when they have an effective negative return after electric costs.

Granted some miners will get turned off as the price declines as they can no longer pay the ongoing electric bill (when they have one)

Here we go

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,865,336,161 (+1.03%)
Adjust time:    After 729 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    306,793,658 GH/s

well it was bound to happen.

 paycoin switchback + sp20's + s-5's =  positive jumps  the real question is how bad?

  + 2 on Dec 31 , + 4  on Jan 13 , + 4  Jan 26  would be nice.     that is 10% for the next 30 days or so.

 the  diff would be  43402m  in late Jan.

I can deal with that.

Watch that 504-block gray line coming down really fast. We had a couple of spikes like that in the last couple of months, and I still don't think an increase this time is a foregone conclusion. It could go either way. Whether it's variance or (tinfoil hat on) some vendor testing hardware before shipping out, please let me keep my hope :).

if it's HW vendor testing sooner or later the miners will reach their final destination and the increase will be permanent

haven't u seen the last 2 diff %? also s3 and s4 will come offline in the future. some farms may even close forever, some may burn down, etc etc....

Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,395,957,236 (-0.16%) after more than a month of hashing, s5 are going in the box for shipping!

Thus tinfoil. Legendary Bitmain's/Spond's/insert_vendor_you_dislike 30+ PH/s testing farm that they just switch on/off every couple of months. Mind boggling logistics and math right there.

Its unlikely the S5 have been hashing for a month, at least not in large quantities. Likely bitmain had batch 1 (and maybe batch 2) in testing for som time, but likely only a small number of miners (<5PH) would be testing/burning-in at once. but the fact is that bitmain more likely runs an S4 farm or has/is developing an S6. Its insanely easier to monitor, install, and control a hundred devices than it is to control 4-5x as many.

diff is looking high on varience again (possibly due to short testing periods for new hardware, plus paycoin users switching back or turning off) - around 1% this jump seems likely, maybe 2%.

s5 should have been on the market from 17 nov
http://issuu.com/ybitcoin/docs/ybitcoin-volume1__issue4/7?e=0/9799106
but because of too much old stok
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=904554.0
https://bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=000201412171033028658LE40FU705ED
they simply kept them for themselves until now!

   well if they were mining 1000 of them that is 1.2 ph .  running 1000 s-5's is possible, but would be hard work.  and 1.2 ph is only .4%  so they would need to have been running 2500 of them  = 3ph and 1%  jump that is a lot of gear to run. I do not think they run 1000 I really really don't think they run 2500.
  Maybe just maybe from nov 17 to dec 25.
  they ran 100 for 1 day then packed them to ship.  do that for 35 days it is 3500-4000 units all had 1 day of testing. makes more sense then what you say.

 

 In a way if you are correct then the hashrate for the next 3 jumps will not be big.  So lets see if we see <2% for 3 straight jumps.

One possible thing if you look at the controller it can do 4 hashing boards.  They only do 2 on the S5.  They could easily build a version with 4 hashing boards just doing a new case.  It would not surprise me if they did build a data center of them doing a special 4 board model for themself.

Bitcoin Wisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,908,522,385 (+1.14%)
Adjust time:    After 588 Blocks, About 3.9 days

Looking like we are finally going back to normal.

If you look at the shorter term block rate it appears that a large amount of mining capacity was added to the network, almost at the same time (maybe it was from the PoW phase of paycoin ending).

I would say if the price of bitcoin remains stagnant/declines the difficulty is likely to start to drift lower, especially as we approach the next block subsidy halving

diff to the moon :)

We still have a while before reward halving but I would agree once close to it it will have a effect.

But on this were likely talking sometime in 2016 so still quite a while in miner terms.

Looks like I was wrong, there seems to be a suicidal attraction to invest in new hardware even with the exchange rate trending lower :)

I wonder what's the real turning point, $300, $250, $200? At some point all some big farms will need to capitulate along with the majority of home miners.

Home miners will die last... at least the believers. I don't have a problem paying $50 to the power company to keep a couple of miners hashing. The big farms with huge bills are the ones to go first if price drops significantly.

miners like me in a cold winter area get heat benefits that big farms do not get.

 A  drop in  usd to btc has to slow us back into the negative numbers. It has to shut some big farms down.

For some of us the winter weather is huge.  No ac bills to cool building, and can use cheap setups to extract heat.   Allows less overhead.

I am allowing 3600-4000 watts of heat to just stay in the home.  most of it is in the attached garage

 which  is under my bedroom heat  Drifts up to the bedroom as if I have in floor heat.     3600 watts = more then 10000 btus of heat.

I estimate my heating bill to be reduced 100 a month in ½ Oct.,   NOV.,  DEC.,  JAN.,  FEB.,  MAR.,   ½ Apr

  So 600 bucks reduction  Late Apr and May I usually cut my power use down to 2000 watts.

There's been a sudden large increase in hash rate in the last week, after a previous drop.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1419734103

What happened? Were some substantial hashing assets off doing Peercoin for a while, or what?

well

 A)paycoin has fully stopped using hashpower

 B)sp20's have been shipping

 C) weather gets colder in more of the northern hemisphere = 'free' heat 

 my 7 sp20's can not be cooled well if it is over 60f outdoors .  but at 40f they offer 'free' heat  this is about 100 usd a month for me.  Many miners will run a borderline profitable miner for heat.

I feel like the difficulty of btc will dramatically increase next time. Especially since pay coin is done getting mined.

paycoin mining ended long long time a go. it's hash came from bitcoin miners so not a big deal. new miners being plugged in is where hash increase comes from

to the moooooooooon!
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,904,839,119 (+3.67%)
at the end of this period it might get to 5% ;D

yeah looks to be 4% maybe 5%.  but and here is the big but  what will the next 2 do?

it will go up! :))
thousandths of s3 will be replaced with s5...
s6...
other manufacturers...

waters are too calm atm!

LE: some will take a punch in the nuts with the actual price of btc...

I thought the jump in hashrate would be more delayed this round. so instead of 2%, 7%, 4% i think it will now be: 4.25%, 5%, and 3%

lots of equiment coming onlin in the next 3 weeks as the SP20 and S5 compete for price dominance. however, BTC<$350 means that its unlikely to see anything capable of <0.6w/GH selling at <1BTC/TH necessary to be profitable for most users.

4.25 then 5 then 2 or lower I hope.  this would mean  about 44.5m around the end of this month.

factors like coin price will matter a lot.

 also the s-5  needs to be a .51-.55 miner  if it is a bomb  that leave the home miner with only the sp20E as a sane choice to mine with.


also I have not been using the bitcoinchart numbers

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   336360
Total BTC   13.659M
 
Difficulty   39457671307
Estimated   40015942366 in 312 blks  this is  a   1.4% jump

vs

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  at 3.35% jump

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,779,284,091 (+3.35%)
Adjust time:   After 312 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):   306,802,474 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.8 minutes
Updated:   14:35 (2.3 minutes ago)


they tend to merge into the middle (say +2.4% this time)      but the last few jumps of negative have been off from that a bit.

I was not shocked this jumped has happened. 

What will shock me is if the two after are more then 5% back to back.

Its possible it will, but i dont feel like it will. Lots of SP20s shipping out right now

1)  >250 from the GB and probably that many more Sp20 + Sp3X bought directly from SP-T. I assume they are selling 4-9 PH / difficulty period
2) Bitmain has begun shipping S5 units. once a few reviews come back in, they will probably sell 3-7 PH / difficulty period
3) Asicminer wont have much other than the AMHash farm for another month or two, so 1.5 PH/difficulty period
4) Private farms like KNC and Bitfury are the wild card. Both are probably a month or two away from the next chip or phase of expansion. If either one began deployment of a working next-gen chip they would certainly ramp up quickly to deploy 2-6 PH/difficulty period.

I think we will see around 9-18 Petahash added to the network per difficulty period for the next 2-3 jumps, increasing in relation to product price drops or BTC value increase. thats about 3-5% per jump (and about 3-5 Million Dollars worth of hardware)

I agree with this. It is really a wild card for the big companies. Unfortunately for small miner the new miners are shipping out very soon.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,817,405,339 (+3.45%)
Adjust time:    After 253 Blocks, About 1.6 days

We knew it would not last forever.   There should be some S5's and some SP20's from group buy in that above.

I think the previous drop in mining hashpower was partly due to the paycoin PoW mining phase (the rental prices of SHA 256 miners went up during this period).

I do however think that the hashrate (and difficulty) will probably go down as the price of bitcoin has remained stagnant. This is somewhat evidenced by how much trouble bitmantech is apparently selling their S5's (look at the fact that they are accepting credit cards via amazon and paypal via their group buy) as well as the fact they are giving out coupons for their older miners like candy

This could really be the reason.

Well with a day to go we are near 4% so lets say we end at 40.7 diff.

Diff was 39.6 on Nov 5th  How many of us would think that from Nov 5th to Jan 12th  diff would go from 39.6 to 40.7.

I use Jan 12th Since diff will be the same from Dec 30th to Jan 12th.  This would be a 68 day time period in which we have had an increas off about

2.77 %.


 So Jan 12 to March 9 is 68 days.  and 40.7 x 1.0277 = diff at 41.8 up to march 9th.  I don't think so but it would make for a very interesting winter.

Well, I can't say I expected the spike in the past few days. What do you guys think it is? A new datacenter? Maybe BITMAIN is putting some of its S5s online.

Maybe it's just luck.  :-\

Well all that went to paycoin came back a while ago.   Most likely Bitmain and SP new gear.  There are wildcards like avalon, bitfurry, etc. I expect we will see some increases as some of the data centers get rid of old gear and can run twice as much hash or so for same amount of electricity.

I think the biggest deciding factor will be the price and rate of change in price of bitcoin. If the price continues to fall then older miners will be taken offline to somewhat offset the above. If the price is stagnant or continues to fall then people may not be willing to invest in new miners at this high of a rate. For example bitmantech has had difficulty selling their inventory as evidenced by their aggressive use of coupons and expanding into accepting paypal and selling via amazon.

yeah, there is a LOT of 1.2W asicminer chip-based gear that's in its last days at these prices. Shortly after are the thousands of S2 units that are mining right now at 1w/GH. From there the SP10 can go to about 0.8w/GH so wont retire until the S3 hardware has to be clocked back (still 4 months away at these prices)

got soo busy with s-5 tests I missed the jump number  we moved up 3% .  but look at nov 5 to Dec 30   Not bad.


-------------------Difficulty History------------------------

Date-------------   Difficulty-----Change----   Hash Rate
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017    3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307    -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271          -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328           1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252         10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s

Ouch next one is not looking nice at all:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,769,259,791 (+7.70%)
Adjust time:    After 1968 Blocks, About 12.6 days

The longer term average difficulty increase certainly seems to be slowing down, however there were few new ASICs released during this time and there was the paycoin PoW mining period which directed hashpower away from bitcoin

I think Bitmain may very well be a large part of it. They are selling "used" S3's at a bulk rate so that tells me they must have swapped their farm S3's out to the S5 which may have doubled their hash rate.

s5? how about s6 or c2 ;D

 

well my review s-5 had very  a dusty  heatsink.  So bitmain is not putting s-5's online they already have had them on online.

 They may have used them mining the xpy coin and are now switching them to btc.

 Also the 6.92 % jump  on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is going to drop.


Look at http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   336777
Total BTC   13.669M
 
Difficulty   40640955017
Estimated   41333300353 in 1911 blks
 
Network total   335713.830 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.92 / 520 s


They have 40640 to 41333 that is  only 1.71 % Jump.   Over the last year if you do an average of the two it tended to be a better guess so 6.92 + 1.71 = 8.63/2 = 4.31

 My guess is 4-5 % not  7 or 8%

Did a thread for this difficulty change.  Not trying to take it over just helping.  I expect phil to take over again after :).  I know this is a busy time of year.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473

thanks

every one  use his for this jump. dec 30 to Jan 12


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473.new#new

LOCKED

this is the last 2014  diff thread. now sorted.