Dec 17 to Dec 29th diff thread (-0.32%) to (-0.12%)

[philipma1957]

yeah looks to be 4% maybe 5%.  but and here is the big but  what will the next 2 do?

I thought the jump in hashrate would be more delayed this round. so instead of 2%, 7%, 4% i think it will now be: 4.25%, 5%, and 3%

lots of equiment coming onlin in the next 3 weeks as the SP20 and S5 compete for price dominance. however, BTC<$350 means that its unlikely to see anything capable of <0.6w/GH selling at <1BTC/TH necessary to be profitable for most users.

4.25 then 5 then 2 or lower I hope.  this would mean  about 44.5m around the end of this month.

factors like coin price will matter a lot.

 also the s-5  needs to be a .51-.55 miner  if it is a bomb  that leave the home miner with only the sp20E as a sane choice to mine with.


also I have not been using the bitcoinchart numbers

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   336360
Total BTC   13.659M
 
Difficulty   39457671307
Estimated   40015942366 in 312 blks  this is  a   1.4% jump

vs

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  at 3.35% jump

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,779,284,091 (+3.35%)
Adjust time:   After 312 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):   306,802,474 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.1 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.8 minutes
Updated:   14:35 (2.3 minutes ago)


they tend to merge into the middle (say +2.4% this time)      but the last few jumps of negative have been off from that a bit.

I was not shocked this jumped has happened. 

What will shock me is if the two after are more then 5% back to back.

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[klondike_bar]

What will shock me is if the two after are more then 5% back to back.

Its possible it will, but i dont feel like it will. Lots of SP20s shipping out right now

1)  >250 from the GB and probably that many more Sp20 + Sp3X bought directly from SP-T. I assume they are selling 4-9 PH / difficulty period
2) Bitmain has begun shipping S5 units. once a few reviews come back in, they will probably sell 3-7 PH / difficulty period
3) Asicminer wont have much other than the AMHash farm for another month or two, so 1.5 PH/difficulty period
4) Private farms like KNC and Bitfury are the wild card. Both are probably a month or two away from the next chip or phase of expansion. If either one began deployment of a working next-gen chip they would certainly ramp up quickly to deploy 2-6 PH/difficulty period.

I think we will see around 9-18 Petahash added to the network per difficulty period for the next 2-3 jumps, increasing in relation to product price drops or BTC value increase. thats about 3-5% per jump (and about 3-5 Million Dollars worth of hardware)

[desertfox470]

What will shock me is if the two after are more then 5% back to back.

Its possible it will, but i dont feel like it will. Lots of SP20s shipping out right now

1)  >250 from the GB and probably that many more Sp20 + Sp3X bought directly from SP-T. I assume they are selling 4-9 PH / difficulty period
2) Bitmain has begun shipping S5 units. once a few reviews come back in, they will probably sell 3-7 PH / difficulty period
3) Asicminer wont have much other than the AMHash farm for another month or two, so 1.5 PH/difficulty period
4) Private farms like KNC and Bitfury are the wild card. Both are probably a month or two away from the next chip or phase of expansion. If either one began deployment of a working next-gen chip they would certainly ramp up quickly to deploy 2-6 PH/difficulty period.

I think we will see around 9-18 Petahash added to the network per difficulty period for the next 2-3 jumps, increasing in relation to product price drops or BTC value increase. thats about 3-5% per jump (and about 3-5 Million Dollars worth of hardware)

I agree with this. It is really a wild card for the big companies. Unfortunately for small miner the new miners are shipping out very soon.

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,817,405,339 (+3.45%)
Adjust time:    After 253 Blocks, About 1.6 days

We knew it would not last forever.   There should be some S5's and some SP20's from group buy in that above.

[Willisius]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,817,405,339 (+3.45%)
Adjust time:    After 253 Blocks, About 1.6 days

We knew it would not last forever.   There should be some S5's and some SP20's from group buy in that above.

I think the previous drop in mining hashpower was partly due to the paycoin PoW mining phase (the rental prices of SHA 256 miners went up during this period).

I do however think that the hashrate (and difficulty) will probably go down as the price of bitcoin has remained stagnant. This is somewhat evidenced by how much trouble bitmantech is apparently selling their S5's (look at the fact that they are accepting credit cards via amazon and paypal via their group buy) as well as the fact they are giving out coupons for their older miners like candy

[BTCish]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,817,405,339 (+3.45%)
Adjust time:    After 253 Blocks, About 1.6 days

We knew it would not last forever.   There should be some S5's and some SP20's from group buy in that above.

I think the previous drop in mining hashpower was partly due to the paycoin PoW mining phase (the rental prices of SHA 256 miners went up during this period).

I do however think that the hashrate (and difficulty) will probably go down as the price of bitcoin has remained stagnant. This is somewhat evidenced by how much trouble bitmantech is apparently selling their S5's (look at the fact that they are accepting credit cards via amazon and paypal via their group buy) as well as the fact they are giving out coupons for their older miners like candy

This could really be the reason.

[philipma1957]

Well with a day to go we are near 4% so lets say we end at 40.7 diff.

Diff was 39.6 on Nov 5th  How many of us would think that from Nov 5th to Jan 12th  diff would go from 39.6 to 40.7.

I use Jan 12th Since diff will be the same from Dec 30th to Jan 12th.  This would be a 68 day time period in which we have had an increas off about

2.77 %.


 So Jan 12 to March 9 is 68 days.  and 40.7 x 1.0277 = diff at 41.8 up to march 9th.  I don't think so but it would make for a very interesting winter.

[armedmilitia]

Well, I can't say I expected the spike in the past few days. What do you guys think it is? A new datacenter? Maybe BITMAIN is putting some of its S5s online.

Maybe it's just luck. 

[notlist3d]

Well, I can't say I expected the spike in the past few days. What do you guys think it is? A new datacenter? Maybe BITMAIN is putting some of its S5s online.

Maybe it's just luck. 

Well all that went to paycoin came back a while ago.   Most likely Bitmain and SP new gear.  There are wildcards like avalon, bitfurry, etc. I expect we will see some increases as some of the data centers get rid of old gear and can run twice as much hash or so for same amount of electricity.

[Window2Wall]

What will shock me is if the two after are more then 5% back to back.

Its possible it will, but i dont feel like it will. Lots of SP20s shipping out right now

1)  >250 from the GB and probably that many more Sp20 + Sp3X bought directly from SP-T. I assume they are selling 4-9 PH / difficulty period
2) Bitmain has begun shipping S5 units. once a few reviews come back in, they will probably sell 3-7 PH / difficulty period
3) Asicminer wont have much other than the AMHash farm for another month or two, so 1.5 PH/difficulty period
4) Private farms like KNC and Bitfury are the wild card. Both are probably a month or two away from the next chip or phase of expansion. If either one began deployment of a working next-gen chip they would certainly ramp up quickly to deploy 2-6 PH/difficulty period.

I think we will see around 9-18 Petahash added to the network per difficulty period for the next 2-3 jumps, increasing in relation to product price drops or BTC value increase. thats about 3-5% per jump (and about 3-5 Million Dollars worth of hardware)

I think the biggest deciding factor will be the price and rate of change in price of bitcoin. If the price continues to fall then older miners will be taken offline to somewhat offset the above. If the price is stagnant or continues to fall then people may not be willing to invest in new miners at this high of a rate. For example bitmantech has had difficulty selling their inventory as evidenced by their aggressive use of coupons and expanding into accepting paypal and selling via amazon.

[klondike_bar]

What will shock me is if the two after are more then 5% back to back.

Its possible it will, but i dont feel like it will. Lots of SP20s shipping out right now

1)  >250 from the GB and probably that many more Sp20 + Sp3X bought directly from SP-T. I assume they are selling 4-9 PH / difficulty period
2) Bitmain has begun shipping S5 units. once a few reviews come back in, they will probably sell 3-7 PH / difficulty period
3) Asicminer wont have much other than the AMHash farm for another month or two, so 1.5 PH/difficulty period
4) Private farms like KNC and Bitfury are the wild card. Both are probably a month or two away from the next chip or phase of expansion. If either one began deployment of a working next-gen chip they would certainly ramp up quickly to deploy 2-6 PH/difficulty period.

I think we will see around 9-18 Petahash added to the network per difficulty period for the next 2-3 jumps, increasing in relation to product price drops or BTC value increase. thats about 3-5% per jump (and about 3-5 Million Dollars worth of hardware)

I think the biggest deciding factor will be the price and rate of change in price of bitcoin. If the price continues to fall then older miners will be taken offline to somewhat offset the above. If the price is stagnant or continues to fall then people may not be willing to invest in new miners at this high of a rate. For example bitmantech has had difficulty selling their inventory as evidenced by their aggressive use of coupons and expanding into accepting paypal and selling via amazon.

yeah, there is a LOT of 1.2W asicminer chip-based gear that's in its last days at these prices. Shortly after are the thousands of S2 units that are mining right now at 1w/GH. From there the SP10 can go to about 0.8w/GH so wont retire until the S3 hardware has to be clocked back (still 4 months away at these prices)

[philipma1957]

got soo busy with s-5 tests I missed the jump number  we moved up 3% .  but look at nov 5 to Dec 30   Not bad.


-------------------Difficulty History------------------------

Date-------------   Difficulty-----Change----   Hash Rate
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017    3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307    -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271          -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328           1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252         10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s

[notlist3d]

Ouch next one is not looking nice at all:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,769,259,791 (+7.70%)
Adjust time:    After 1968 Blocks, About 12.6 days

[Window2Wall]

got soo busy with s-5 tests I missed the jump number  we moved up 3% .  but look at nov 5 to Dec 30   Not bad.


-------------------Difficulty History------------------------

Date-------------   Difficulty-----Change----   Hash Rate
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017    3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307    -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271          -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328           1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252         10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s

The longer term average difficulty increase certainly seems to be slowing down, however there were few new ASICs released during this time and there was the paycoin PoW mining period which directed hashpower away from bitcoin

[aurel57]

Well, I can't say I expected the spike in the past few days. What do you guys think it is? A new datacenter? Maybe BITMAIN is putting some of its S5s online.

Maybe it's just luck. 

I think Bitmain may very well be a large part of it. They are selling "used" S3's at a bulk rate so that tells me they must have swapped their farm S3's out to the S5 which may have doubled their hash rate.

[mavericklm]

s5? how about s6 or c2

[philipma1957]

Well, I can't say I expected the spike in the past few days. What do you guys think it is? A new datacenter? Maybe BITMAIN is putting some of its S5s online.

Maybe it's just luck. 

I think Bitmain may very well be a large part of it. They are selling "used" S3's at a bulk rate so that tells me they must have swapped their farm S3's out to the S5 which may have doubled their hash rate.

 

well my review s-5 had very  a dusty  heatsink.  So bitmain is not putting s-5's online they already have had them on online.

 They may have used them mining the xpy coin and are now switching them to btc.

 Also the 6.92 % jump  on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is going to drop.


Look at http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   336777
Total BTC   13.669M
 
Difficulty   40640955017
Estimated   41333300353 in 1911 blks
 
Network total   335713.830 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.92 / 520 s


They have 40640 to 41333 that is  only 1.71 % Jump.   Over the last year if you do an average of the two it tended to be a better guess so 6.92 + 1.71 = 8.63/2 = 4.31

 My guess is 4-5 % not  7 or 8%

[notlist3d]

Did a thread for this difficulty change.  Not trying to take it over just helping.  I expect phil to take over again after .  I know this is a busy time of year.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473

[philipma1957]

Did a thread for this difficulty change.  Not trying to take it over just helping.  I expect phil to take over again after .  I know this is a busy time of year.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473

thanks

every one  use his for this jump. dec 30 to Jan 12


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473.new#new

LOCKED

[philipma1957]

this is the last 2014  diff thread. now sorted.