Bitcoin Forum

Let's see the Tally

I'm going to stay on FPGAs until I can buy an ASIC board from somebody I feel comfortable giving my money.

yeah, Its sad how almost no one cares about monopoly in this forum

Right, such as how AMD is pretty much the only video card with acceptable support, speed, and profitability. Analogy fail. ::)

So approximately 6TH coming online in October at the low end. Good for network, bad for mining profit. :(

I picked up 8 new singles and traded in 8 singles

I dont understand why anyone would preorder these

1) BFL isnt giving any indication of how many TH they are able to sell this year or the next, nor are they saying how many preorders they already have received. How on earth are you going to estimate ROI when you cant estimate the difficulty 6 months from here within an order of magnitude?
2) you get no guarantees whatsoever, not on shipping order, not a price freeze guarantee, nothing.
2) They make no promise not to mine with their own hardware (AFAIK) or to not sell in bulk 1000s of ASICs to, say, some ambitious mining asic company ran by a UK guy with a Russian sounding name. For all I know those asics could find their way to a datacenter before anyone here gets their first jalapeno.
3) They rushed the preorder so badly, taking money so early (even though they supposedly got a VC capital injection), ...  one has to wonder if they know something we dont.

Anyway, best of luck to everyone that ordered. I predict a financial bloodbath.

I predict a lot of pissed off people with pre orders...

dont worry, the end is near says the Mayan... maybe before the reward halv :D

Actually I think its the other way around. Especially if they can deliver product then it could be in November.

If there's going to be a financial bloodbath, it will be much worse for those investing in new GPUs or FPGAs. We know that ASIC is the future of mining. Whatever the ROI turns out to be for early adopters of ASICs, odds are it will be much better than it is for later adopters. So far, the history of mining has favored early adopters, and I don't see any reason to think this is going to change. But it is risky for sure. Personally, I think the biggest risk for those investing in ASICs is if sha 256 is compromised. GPU and FPGA miners could adapt, but ASIC miners would need new hardware, their old hardware becoming useless. I don't know how likely this is or how soon it could happen, but it is a possibility.  

I pre-ordered 6 the trade in option. I plan to order more this week when some more coins come in.  My order number is 1916 :P

:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.

BFL has stated that they will refuse any orders that are in danger of giving 51%+ to any individual. You could reject that as BS, but BFL does have a vested interest in Bitcoin, so I doubt they are lying about this. 

So basically its one per address.
What if I ordered one to 10 of my friends addresses?
How would they know it would be all me? I would order from their house and everything.

All I hope is that they have a few 1Th rigs themselves and will mine with them if anyone starts an attempt to %1%.

I think they're gonna ship out smaller items first, to raise the network hashspeed before they ship out a shitton of 1TH units. They have also said they don't want any one person (or group of people) profiting any more than another (within their customer base - if you're not a customer, then you're SOL).

They don't want it.
They wouldn't know if it was from different ip's to different addresses.

They've stated that there will be 3 separate production lines for each unit, and the first shipment, which will go out at the same time, will include all 3 types of units. If someone shipping to multiple addresses wanted to grab 51%, they would have had to order at least 13 mini rigs = $390,000. And this assumes they would get *all* of the first shipment, which is impossible since 1/3 is going to randomly selected orders from the first month, and 1/3 is going to the exchange program for FPGA units. Given this, it would be virtually impossible for any single individual, no matter how many distinct addresses they had to ship to, and no matter how much money they had, to get half the hashing power of the first shipment. File this 51% worry under "foil hat."

well said

Looks like 10TH coming online as a lowball guess.  :D

around 40 TH for trade-in's by my estimation.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89258.msg984426#msg984426

Personally I am expecting around 300TH by year's end.

I was just keeping a loose tally from the poll. :)  Up to 14TH, yea make my bitcoin stronger.

minus inefficient by then hardware

Next summer I will turn on my GPU miner just for the nostalgic feelings...

My tally thus far puts network hash rate at about ~46TH a few weeks after launch(not accounting for new mini-rigs as I believe those wont be available so soon). The minus on inefficient hardware can at most be ~11.5TH only if every single current unit is actually inefficient. So, still ~35TH at the least.

You can estimate the difficulty from this in one of 2 ways. Either calculate the multiplier above current hash rate and use the same on the diff.  Or, use TP's bitcoin calc or similar, punch in estimated total hashrate as if it were your own. Raise and adjust the difficulty number until you get ~7200 BTC per day. This will give you what the difficulty would be if the estimated network hash is correct. It's as close as anyone is gonna get. The rest comes down to just how good you are at 'guessing' what exactly will come online at release.

cheers

the nostalgic feeling fo sweaty balls? ;p

I'm going to miss GPU mining. Even though I'm embracing ASIC, I think it's going to be dull compared to GPU. I'll miss the building of open air rigs, maxing out the # of GPUs on mobos with extenders, the assurance you can sell your equipment to gamers, etc. But hopefully ASIC mining will less of a PITA at least.

The overclocking, the undervolting, the different kernels, finding that "sweet spot" for every card and it's quirks.... I think i'm gonna miss it too...

Yep, BFL is basically selling mining appliances rather than rigs you can fiddle with and make your own. We might be able to OC a bit, but this will be at the mercy of BFL firmware updates. Like I said, pretty dull compared to GPU. I wouldn't be surprised if a fork of BTC catches on for GPU/FPGA, even if it is just for fun (I guess forks already exist for that). Actually, what would be interesting would be a fork based on a better security standard than sha256. Even if it isn't profitable initially, it could pan out later if sha256 is compromised. If that came along, I would seriously consider pointing my GPUs at it rather than selling them. 

Yeah, ASIC isn't the future of mining, it's the mid-term of mining. Any given ASIC is dominant for the period in which it has the best algorithm, and FPGAs/GPUs are dominant for the period in which no ASIC has the best algorithm.

Of course, the dominance is great enough for ASICs to be a no-brainer as long as there are no innovations in solving SHA256. Which just leaves (as I've mentioned before) the question of how long until I can buy an ASIC board from someone who isn't BFL.

Exactly - I'm going with BFL, though (not ideal, but I'm OK with it). Great handle BTW - wish I'd thought of that.

Order Number 2047  :-\

2046 people before me ?

no ~400 befor you (1656 was the first order)

Will use my gpus until no longer worth it then quit bitcoin pretty much. No use for it unless i can make money.
Or if i can buy asics without sending my money into a black hole for months on end.
Other old single customers still dont have their shit. Ridiculous.

order #2033

mini-rig SC upgrade

Looks like around 17TH on the low side, keep on buying guys. ;)

Order # 2764 for me.
Will it arrive before the end of the world?

Mini Ring upgrade to Mini Ring SC. Order number 2360.