Bitcoin Forum

http://www.profitconfidential.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/U.S.-Economic-Collapse-2015.jpgThe last thing Wall Street is thinking about is an economic collapse in 2015 (http://www.profitconfidential.com/economic-analysis/economic-collapse-2015/). After all, the stock markets are at record highs, unemployment is down, and inflation is in check. But the fact of the matter is that these same indicators were also in check before the markets crashed in 1987, 2000, and 2008/09. Back in 2008/09, everyone on Wall Street, save for Michael Lombardi and Peter Schiff, was absolutely certain that the U.S. economy was the envy of the world and that it was rock solid.

When the economic crisis is coming, it comes, no one will stop it! But before it comes, there are some signs there. The most of ppl choose to ignore it， and choose to expand the risk level to get more profits until the bubble bursts. We should when things reach to the peak, then it will dramatcially roll back.

And that's why now we just buy and HODL.

So let me get this straight, you think that there'll be economic collapse because all the indicators suggests just the opposite?
I suppose you also think that bitcoin is doing great because all the indicators suggest that it's tanking?
Continue preaching US economic collapse as your slick bitcoin investment reacquaints you with crushing poverty :)

The US would have probably not fallen into recession if it were not for the 9/11/11 terrorist attacks. The economic boom did peak in 2000, however we did not fall into recession until late 2011.

I don't think there was actually any kind of crisis in 1987, just a recession caused by the economic cycle.

I think it would be possible to fall back into recession in 2015 due to bad economic policy but I don't think it will be a full crisis. We tend to not see these major crisis this often

It is not going to happen. Every year we hear the same story of how bad the condition is, how much debt there is, and it still continues as before.
USD is in high demand and continue to remain so. As long as it stays the primary reserve currency of the world the economy will not collapse.

Not Recession actually... US market may stay stable for a moment.. I am worried about global market...

I hope it doesn't happen because if it does whatever bitcoin amount which I'm holding right now will not be able to compensate. Everyone seems to believe that when there's economic downturn bitcoin price will move in the opposite direction. However the perception does not seem apply to everyone. bitcoin has not reach that status considered a safe haven to maintain as store of value. Only among the circle of bitcoin holders. That is for now, but maybe will change in the future.

No Way!  we can just print more money :)

The US economy is actually doing somewhat well now, the issue is that it is being artificially inflated/propped up by QE which cannot last forever without causing high amounts of inflation. It is also suffering from bad economic and fiscal policies which will eventually blow up

Go for oil and gold stocks then if want to print money in coming year :))

And happy new year :))

I think there is enough surplus liquidity built into the system to keep us going for another 12 to 18 months
2016 could be the year it starts to go pear-shaped in the US

will that bring any good for Bitcoin?

The question is when it will blow up. If it lasts for a few years, people will continue to feel good and policies won't change.

The reason stock prices are so high and everything looks good right now is purely because of hyperinflation which is the amount of money that the central banks are pumping into the economy, they're keeping things going over Christmas and new years and then eventually all of it is going to collapse in on itself with the politicians and bankers playing completely innocent about it and not understanding what's going on.

I've been predicting a crash for the first quarter of 2015 for awhile now just because of how high things all are right now and also everything is starting to look at the exact level it was at the 2008 - 2009 crash, the idea that you can have such a massive crash and then have everything go this high again as if it's 'normal' is ridiculous. The good news is for us at least, the more people who are in denial about this the more money there is to be made.

So this Monday's the big day? 

http://s30.postimg.org/wmfmhoswx/jesus_second_coming_05.jpg

The beauty of the system is once the QE stops working and the inflation kicks in then the debt the USA have been amassing will be reduced heavily via inflation. Even at current rates of "2%" inflation the debt burden will be 35% less in 30 years time. I agree with you though, I think they will keep this market buoyant for as long as they can but when it pops it could prove to be very heavy indeed.

I saw Martin Armstrong also predict a major crash in 2015.75 (3rd quarter)
I largely agree but it won't be the biggest crash. One of the reasons I sold some other fiat hedges.

I think you wrong because many investor looking investment on usa now. You can see dollar strong to other fiat in last month

pump & dump - how the pros do it

I feel sorry for those who don't see the inevitable...
I also feel sorry for the people who believe the dollar is getting stronger. It's not... Wealth distribution is widening faster than ever; who do you think backs the dollar anyways? It's not the top 1% of the population, of that I can assure you...

Oil is a great buy right now, I don't believe the dollar will fail this year, but I think bank bail-ins and economic crisis are damn likely within 12 months. That means another shake-out is likely before the final convulsion of a dying organism and the collapse of an entire economic system...

It's also alarming to see that the petrodollar system is so weak that Saudi Arabia is willing to hold oil production "no matter what" and crash the price of oil. The clock is ticking and it's almost midnight...

I read this as inflation kicks in when QE stops, ie no money printing = inflation. This would follow the school of thought that says QE actually causes deflation. I think it is referred to as the neo-fisherite theory. I also seem to remember something that Bernanke had said in a speech that inflation has never really been a concern over the QE period.

well the thing is that hyperinflation is an attribute better applied for currencies at the lower tier of fiats, not the $ while enjoying a reserve status. hyperinflation happens all over the world just to prop up the reserve currency and give it another breath. the world is paying for usa to party. so all this manipulations we are seeing today, every aspect of every market is a total lie today, so deflation that will most probably happen would also be a manipulated lie to force all world's wealth into $ as a final solution.
expect alot of false flag events happening all over the world to create total chaos and make plebs fight all but the bankers responsible. once conflicts reach critical mass then they will dump this thing while msm blaming everyone else.

I would have to disagree with you there. Saudis recent decisions regarding oil has likely got nothing to do with a weakening of the petrodollar. It's almost certainly quite the opposite actually. This current spell of oil dumping is probably playing to American wishes, thus indicating a strengthening of the petrodollar. This assumption would also help explain why the dollar has been rallying in recent months.  

I disagree because Saudi oil profits under the petrodollar system are reinvested into US stocks; therefore, by allowing the price of oil to crash which will further damage the rest of the market and cause further financial losses makes no sense to me. The only thing I can rationalize is that they believe they're better prepared to withstand the resulting damage of this than we are, it's just as likely they're attempting to get out of the petrodollar arrangement during a time when the US is in financial crisis.

The dollar has been rallying and yet the middle class is shrinking, wealth disparity is at record levels, full time employment is more scarce, college graduates can't afford their student loans, the cost of living is skyrocketing, one third of adult US households are now forced to live with a roommate, and the increased profits of the top 20% wealthiest families was large enough to offset the losses of the lower 80% resulting in the MSM shouting, "oh look how we've recovered!"

The dollar is rallying, but it's not the masses who are doing all the buying, because they're too busy worrying about how much more expensive the groceries are today than they were 5 years ago...

Its playing to the USA's advantage though. Its having a ten fold greater impact on the Russian economy than theirs. Which is probably the name of the game, economic warfare.

The Saudis wanted the US to stop ISIS's approach towards its boarders and the US wanted to hurt Russia's economy. Both nations appear to have helped each other out, so I would theorize this is what happened. I could be totally wrong of course.

I most definitely don't think it indicates a weakening of the petrodollar. A weakening would be signified by a significantly weakening dollar and a subsequent oil price increase (& all commodities) as nations prepared exit plans. As regard to your second point yes I know. I do live in these times as well.

Credit creation, the lifeblood of the capitalist economy, is way too low. If this is not going up anytime soon, it will lead to a deflationary collapse.

I care more for the Bitcoin economy than the USA's, tbh.

http://www.positivemoney.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Commercial-bank-lending-to-individuals1.jpg
http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2012/01/m4-lending.png
http://goldsilverworldscom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/True_Money_Supply_1960-20121.gif
Only question remaining is will money come out of hiding?

China may have its own subprime crisis in 2015...

Money cannot hide. It is created by banks through loans (credit creation) and ends up as deposits. Deposits are a component of money supply and known.

What I really meant is because a lot of the money current been created is going straight from the central bank to the financial banks at 0% interest. And seeming though financial banks borrowing has increased whilst its lending has decreased, and stock markets and bond markets are near all time highs.

I would strongly argue that most of the money created in that US$ graph up there has found its way into financial assets as opposed to the real economy. The cheap money at 0% drives speculation crazy because money is "cheap" and the subsequent inflating of bubbles has lured money from the real economy into the speculative.

When this will end is any ones guess, but a serious correction on financial assets would cause money to drive out of the speculative market and placed into the real. This move is what I would argue will cause inflation at some point, but how much inflation will depend on the size of the money movements.   

This is not news.

It is already happening....

http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2015/01/dr-jim-willie-significant-events-coming-the-toxic-dollar-2688212.html

An economic collapse was widely predicted in 2008, 2010, 2014, and many other years. It is so over-due, that when it finally happens I probably will not be prepared. How do you prepare when money is tight and you don't have extra to spend?   :o

buy a p90 ... and bullets.

This graph is also telling:

http://goldsilverworldscom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Velocity_of_Money_2012.gif

I'd say by mid march we'll see the direction a bit clearer. Could be reallly bad or it'll just muddle along completely out of touch with reality ala t2012-2014.

The two things in the distance that could really wreak havok are Greece leaving the Euro and / or the US raising interest rates.

Greece may happen; people are desperate and angry but will also depend on the nerve of Tsipras if elected.

The US will never be able to raise IR's.

QE did not create new money. If you sell a 30 year treasury to the FED and get cash, you are just more liquid, but your wealth is the same before and after ... aka the money in the public stays the same.


Sure, you can put your lame cash into hot assets then.


Again, QE does not increase overall amount of money, it can never be inflationary. QE is just to prevent a deflationary collapse by providing liquidity to prevent a liquidity crisis.

Inflation can only happen, if credit creation by banks to private is growing (home, consumer loans, businesses) or the system just breaks the rules like in Weimar.
 

If you look at Japan, they (central bank and government) can keep the status quo for a very, very long time.


Japan, UK and the Euro zone are in the same position too. If you as an entrepreneur  sell a product at a fixed rate for the next 30 years, but cost are rising in the future above, you will go bankrupt. It's suicide. Banks make 30 year loans at fixed low rates, they would lose money, if their refinance rate goes above that. The only way out is significant growth so they can average up, but the high debt load prevents growth. Low rates are a dead end. Yes, FED, ECB, BoJ and BoE will never be able to raise rates again.

SO what are the indicators of the looming or pending collapse?

You gotta provide more detail for us to politic over!

I think an Economic Collapse is likely in 2015 or 2016 for the US.

There are prediction that the eurozone’s economic problems would only worsen. Having had the luxury of visiting Europe on six different occasions this year, It's been seen firsthand the deterioration in their economy. In 2015, Eurozone Depression Ahead though...!!!

Yes Japan has zombie walked along for 25 years. I think by mid march we'll know if this Grexit will happen or not. If it does then I think there will be a sizeable stock correction. Looks like it may be gaining momentum today. We'll also see if Draghi can continue to calm markets with words re: QE EU. And you're right, no one can really raise rates. Seeing as though this low rate environmente is almost unprecedented for countries let alone continents, it will be interesting to see how long it can last.

Alex Jones certainly seems to think so:

2015: Year Of The Collapse?
http://youtu.be/AO7cM2DN1yU

But he would wouldn't he? He likes to spread a lot of fear. In fact he makes a business off of it (I think he'd like this forum  ;D). Personally I don't think it will happen this year but I think were due another eventually.

"terrorist" attacks
FTFY

Alex Jones is a fucktard.
He is not doing the truth community any service. His presentation layer is absolutely terrible.

Increasing public debts, increase of wasteful spending, decreasing quality of the employment market.

Eurozone's problem is the misconception of the Euro. A Grexit will fix nothing.

True though... Grexit will fix nothing..!! :-[

Not the US, Europe.

How are things looking now, up or down? With the USD soaring for the last months, interest rates turning negative in Europe, precious metals wiping the floor, are we still here to witness global financial destruction, epic economic meltdown, and maybe social unrest in the nearest future?

China, or every other country in the world???

I don't think the USA has anything to fear in terms of this impending "Economic Collapse". Low and stable inflation rate, rising employment, rising equity market, all bullish at the moment.

Lots of people around the world wishing ill thoughts on the USA but their wish is just that, wishes. The USA has weathered the "Great Recession" of 2008-2014 remarkably well, especially compared to the Euro zone.

The USA will last anther 200 years at the top of the world.

Nothing to fear save for frenzied speculation in the financial markets right now. The same had happened just before the Great Depression set in. Regarding unemployment, the official numbers are either bogus (http://www.naturalnews.com/048590_unemployment_rate_Gallup_CEO_government_statistics.html) or half true (http://www.naturalnews.com/048436_unemployment_American_economy_labor_force.html), since partially employed are not considered as unemployed. An astonishing 92,898,000 Americans 16 years and older did not participate in the labor force in the end of 2014,


Wanna talk about rising employment, huh?

perhaps more EuroZone in first position ... and then, the US.
QE of Eurozone is on the road, so ... dead mine area here, now.

http://images.fastcompany.com/upload/minefield-620.jpg

Every 6-8 years we have a crash - its known as the Short Term Debt Cycle

http://www.economicprinciples.org/

So yes, we are due for a crash in 2015/2016.

If the American system had any underpinning logic it would have collapsed by now. But it doesn't.  But it doesn't need logic so much, as the fantasy-factory funny money will always reign supreme as long as the US military has the strength it does.  The federal reserve could raise their self-paid dividend for every dollar they print from 6% or 8% (I forget what it is) to 20% and start printing 'the dollar' on toilet paper, it would still not collapse, because if it collapses everything collapses.

Short version: logic doesn't really apply to the US financial system, its a a complete fabrication that every must adhere to because the banking cartels have solidified their hold over the monopoly on money years ago.

How do you define collapse? If a collapse mean something's USD value drops, then FED only need to print a little bit more USD to support the collapsed price and everything will be back to normal

If a collapse means a collapse of USD's value e.g. everything's price will double each month, then FED just need to sell large amount of assets and reduce the available USD in banking system, thus USD will become scarce again, and stop the price inflation

The only problem is that people might give up using USD, then what FED can do with USD will have no effect on anyone who does not use USD. But that is not going to happen in 2015

What about the U.S. national debt? Japan being out of the question (since it is not an independent country), but China deciding to cash out their U.S. Treasuries pool (i.e. 21% of all foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities) and then spend all these dollars? Would this pass for a collapse?

Foreign-held US debts are small comparing with what US hold domestically, and when Chinese government spend dollars to buy US products, it will create job and boom. And those bonds have no risk of default, US government will always borrow more USD from FED to repay them with good interest

John Law said, money is wealth. As long as you can create money at will, you can create wealth to solve any economy problem. There is a limit for how much money you can print without totally destroy the credibility of fiat money, but with modern productivity, it seems unless you print 10 times more money every month, people will always adapt and create enough products to earn those newly printed money. Unreasonably stupid but you can not do anything about it, since for each individual, fiat money is precious, and they will work hard to grab those paper

Maybe in future US merchants only accept bitcoin and large foreign US debt owners could not buy anything using USD :D

I wouldn't call owning of over $6 trillion of U.S. debt, which makes roughly 47% of the public debt (34% of the total debt), small, would you? Furthermore, if the Chinese government decides to spend dollars in the U.S., this will raise inflation through a demand-supply mechanism. But the problem would be even deeper than that.

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/clip_image001.gif

This is about correct, except the "just" word. Look to Greece. How is the sale of ports going? Sale of the oil refinery? What will the voters say about selling schools, hospitals, national parks, military land, the parthenon? Then fire all officials, including themselves? You see that in practice, this is not a possibility for a government that is currently in power.

How do you define "economic collapse"?

The were market crashes and subsequent bear markets after 1999/2000 and 2007 but these didn't collapse the economy. Business continued on, albeit recessed, but both of these declines created firesale prices for the biggest and best companies in the US, certainly not a reason to panic unless you planned to retire in 2001 or 2008 (in which case you shouldn't have been invested in stocks anyway).

Economic Collapse, to me, means a fundamental breakdown of the economy. Depression style disappearance of work and wealth. Neither of these happened in the recent 15 years. I don't think they'll happen this year either.

Really? The terrorist attack referred to as "9/11" happened on 9/11/2001, the recession started in 2008 (by 2011 the markets has started to recover). And there definitely was a market crash in 1987, it's referred to as "Black Monday", http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)).

Yeah it would have happened, 9/11 or not, it's a simple math game. The debt would have keep stacking at blazzing fast speeds and Bitcoin would have naturally arisen from this problem no matter what.

That collapse will happen the second Iran and China successfully sever the US dollar from Oil trading. The government has one main tool (interest rates) to nudge the economy. And they've used it so long its gotten to the point of uselessness. The next time anything major goes wrong, us is pretty much hosed.

No on should be citing Alex Jones for anything. This guy makes wild claims in the absence of robust fact...he's an illusionist.

I do not approve this. The level of closedness you show is not the rational interest of anyone.

opposite i think, U.S become stronger.
their hegemony already start running.  :P

I can see the government halving a problem with money in the next couple years. Currently the US's biggest source of revenue is borrowed money. Soon the people lending the money will be owed it back and the US will run into many issues with trying to balance out the debt.

I think a bar graph with bars in ascending/descending order would be by far more informative for the purpose of comparing the holders of the U.S. debt. Do you have any?

Don't forget about these low oil prices! When has it been this low? That's right! Back in 08!

japan and uk both owe US money, but nowhere near what the US owes to them

It's all a big delusional game to keep things going on as they are for as long as possible while the elites stack up on gold and (the ones that aren't dinosaurs) bitcoin and other assets, then they'll hide on their bunkers and let stuff crash.

usa will get very worst,
All they want is oil,when I say all they i'm referring to a bad guvern
No wor are wins by the usa.

it's possible but i don't think it will happen in this year
we can see USD now is very strong, it pressing some other country's currency.
although US economy is not very good (they lose to china last year)
but my friend who is economic bachelor said it just starting USD bubble, waiting for collapse because feds print to much money (QE)
who knows, time will tell us :)
i can understand big industrial country like china and japan owe US so much money, but why belgium owe US 13.8% ?
i think belgium is not big industrial country (or rich country) ?

Such waffles don't come cheap. They are a waffle-based society.
https://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8t0snYPWM1r61dd2.jpg

It's a good thing Borack Oblama was in office to deal with those 9/11/11 turror attacks!

wot ??? ??? ???

The Dollar is going up while Yellen will not raise rates this year.

I've read in a few tabloid rags that the euro was going to dip below the value dollar, with the problems you guys are facing across the pond it might be worth it to transfer some of that cash(just to be on the safe side) into american monopoly money. But to be honest I'm not a financial guru or anything so please take my recommendation with a grain of salt.

You are asking us to predict the future price in the short term since you are probably going to your holiday soon ?

I would advise getting some of the Dollar you need now and the rest before you leave not to suffer a big difference compared to if you bought only now or when you leave.

You should try to find the cheapest Dollar by finding the best way to exchange your Euro for Dollars.

Euro has been crushed. Wish I'd have listened to Martin Armstrong in regards to this.

I'm in a similar situation- do I convert my Eur to GBP or wait for the bounce to come in the EUR? Or just convert a portion into silver/BTC.

One thing's for sure the euro is in trouble, but I don't know much about FX, so I could be completely off base. Seems to me that Greece is going to set off a whole shit show that will reverberate throughout Europe.

If you want to save, pick something else than a fiat currency. If you pick a fiat currency, pick one of a more respectable central bank and country than the others ones, like the Swiss Franc.

Thanks for the input. I'll be doing something along those lines.

If everytime Alex Jones has predicted an economic U.S collapse I recieved a Bitcoin, I would be in retirement as we speak.

Broken clocks and all that! ::)

It takes longer than expected but the debt are accumulating and the collapse is near.

I doubt that the debt accumulation could cause real problems in the US economy since this debt is denominated in the same dollars that the US happens to print. It could theoretically set off run-away inflation (or just increase inflation substantially), but if it didn't happen when the Fed had been increasing the monetary base through QEs, why then should it happen now when QEs are done with?