Bitcoin Forum

I had the idea for a game like this in another thread... I thought it might be fun to get a prediction contest going, similar to dnaleor's very entertaining trading simulation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=890086.0), but instead of (daily) estimations and trading, going for a mid-term time scale instead - not trying to look years ahead, but to speculate about the market a few months ahead of time.


The rules:


(1) Post your prediction of the following three key market points.

(a) The highest price (any executed order counts that is not reversed by the exchange or a glitch in the exchange data) during the past 90 days, at the evaluation date, as per Bitfinex.

(b) The lowest price (any executed order counts that is not reversed by the exchange or a glitch in the exchange data) during the past 90 days, at the evaluation date, as per Bitfinex.

(c) The value of a 90 day volume-weighted moving average (daily_close*daily_volume/sum_volume) on Bitfinex data, at the evaluation date. ^(*)


(2) To participate, please send whatever minimal BTC amount you want to the following address: 19j98wABmLk7QXaNN1ZHRqjBJiLPG7jvhA (https://blockchain.info/address/19j98wABmLk7QXaNN1ZHRqjBJiLPG7jvhA).

To be clear: This is not a participation fee, and I am not asking for donations.

Send whatever dust amount you can get through, I don't care. I want to add this rule to make sure that only people with at least a bare minimum of interest in BTC are making predictions.

Post your predictions together with the txid of the transfer you just made. First post using a txid is counted, any subsequent post mentioning the same txid is ignored.

Alternatively, sign a message from any of your addresses. Again, it doesn't matter how much it contains, this rule is just to make sure you're actually on the network and not just a troll bystander. Make sure it can be related to your forum account, e.g. by mentioning your username.


(3) Evaluating the winner.

All valid predictions (= numerical values for all of (a), (b), (c), plus txid or signed message condition met) entered in here are compared at the end of the prediction period to the actual values of (1) (a), (b) and (c).

For each individual question, whoever is closest to the actual value is ranked highest on that question, followed by the poster who submitted the next closest prediction, and so on.

In case of a tie between participants on an individual question, the date of post is used to break the tie, such that the earlier post is ranked higher than the later post.

To determine the overall winner, a final rank is calculated as follows: [rank in answering question (a) + rank in answering question (b) + rank in answering question (c)], with the lowest resulting number determining the overall winner of the game.

In case of a tie at this step, the poster who is ranked highest on question (b), the 'lowest price' question, is the overall winner. ^(**)


(4) Dates and Deadlines (all in UTC).

(a) Submit your predictions by posting in here no later than Sunday, February 8, 2015.

(b) The evaluation date, i.e. the date at which questions (a), (b), (c) are evaluated by looking back 90 days, will be at the end of Saturday, May 9, 2015.

In other words, the prediction period is February 9 2015 (including) to May 9 2015 (including).

(c) The winner will be determined and declared in here shortly afterwards. Same for the transfer of the award specified right below...


(5) The award.

I pledge to transfer 0.5 BTC, or the BTC equivalent of 115 USD (= 0.5 BTC by current valuation) to the winner of this game, with the choice which of the two amounts will be sent being my personal choice at the time of winner determination (I'd say you should probably expect to receive the lower of the two ^_^)

A note to the mods: If offering an award like this means my post counts as "gambling" and would have to be moved to the gambling ghetto subforum, please let me know. In that case, I'd rather remove the award, but have the post stay in this forum.


Summary:

Post your prediction of (a) highest price during previous 90 days, (b) lowest price during previous 90 days, (c) value of 90 day VWMA, all on Bitfinex, as evaluated on May 9 2015, in this thread, no later than Sunday, February 8 2015. Include the txid of a nominal amount transferred to the address posted above, or a signed message mentioning your forum name.


Disclaimer:

The above rules are subject to change (for example, if someone discovers a game-breaking loophole in them), until the submission deadline on February 8. Only the rules as defined by that date count, including the possibility that the game cannot be held at all (if, for example, forum rules prevent having a game like this in here).



Who's in?



Notes:

^(*) "Volume-weighted average" (VWMA) =/= "weighted average " (WMA). This prediction is about price weighted by volume. Current VWMA value is ~$290. Here's a graph of it over the past months. (https://i.imgur.com/WpxUqF4.png)

^(**) Because most of our discussions right now are about whether "the bottom is in" or not.

That address, is it newly generated by you, or an address to some charity? If it's new, why not add that to your .5BTC pledge as a larger jackpot?

Let me do some magisizing and chart-fu and I'll participate.

Newly generated by myself. Like I said, just to get near dust tx's incoming to confirm you're actually part of this little experiment of ours.

That said, I don't mind adding it to the "jackpot" if total received > tx fees necessary to be paid.

That that said, I'm walking a thin line here, before this thread will be heading over to 'gambling', I'm afraid...

Mods? Any comment?


EDIT: Also, since the submission deadline is more than a week away, probably makes sense to wait until later to submit a prediction.

I wouldn't call it gambling per-se. It's speculation with reward. If I can have a vote, it would be to keep it here.
Otoh had one in 2012-13 for the price of BTC crossing silver/Gold and the market cap >1Bn.

The vwma is a difficult one to forecast. Nice choice! Nothing smooth and predictable about it :P

(a)$360
(b)$207
(c)$290

Tx ID 6ca598dae0166dfe163c032f52fdfb0a199765133f2fc2ea4d3fe2265419e957-000 (https://blockchain.info/tx/6ca598dae0166dfe163c032f52fdfb0a199765133f2fc2ea4d3fe2265419e957)

Thanks. Submission by RyNinDaCleM accepted and entered.


Interesting choice of (a) in combination with (c). Something like a relatively low-volume grind up?

Will enter my own prediction tomorrow evening, after doing my own chart voodoo :D

It's based off a chart that I have no idea if it'll ever be in play. I just figured why not put out a fun prediction?  :)

Edit, I notice that the vwma moves a little erratically so Based on my chart, it would seem to drop and only start rising back up in the next 90 days. We'll see. As I said in my last non-game post, the vwma looks difficult to forecast too far out.

Looks like this might turn out be a game just between Ryn and me... so if I win, I can transfer 0.5 btc right into my own wallet, thus generating additional fake network activity that is the basis of the current price anyway! /Jorge

Alright. Here's my own entry.

(a) $440

(b) $180

(c) $360

Well technically I have no idea what the price will do in a few months with such precision. That's not how anyone should trade. Any prediction like this should be made for fun.

Little premise aside, here are my entries:


(a) $274
(b) $86
(c) $190


My guess is that the price will not go anywhere up (significantly), it's probably gonna stay in a long consolidation for a month or more and then eventually there will be another big crash with a temporary bottom anywhere in the upper double digits.



TX ID:    e075efc04a2cc68b997560303c864329e496384fd32dca5a8d982daca5a8803c
https://blockchain.info/tx/e075efc04a2cc68b997560303c864329e496384fd32dca5a8d982daca5a8803c

Okay I will play as well, why not :)

(a) $418

(b) $218

(c) $320

TX ID: 9292eb5cb1aee9b79323278f78217a2b77fc0b59671394b7a6f171203f2234a9
https://blockchain.info/tx/9292eb5cb1aee9b79323278f78217a2b77fc0b59671394b7a6f171203f2234a9

You didn't think I'd let this one get away from me? :D

Boring guesses, but meh.

a) $359
b) $224
c) $307

https://blockchain.info/tx/a4e1cb3e13e5409889425c17289f8b03b58e3058621a18c8e0a1170e86a55ba0

edit: changed a) as ryan already picked $360 ;)

Who said anything about trading on any of this. Still a fun exercise, no?

Entry locked in. Thanks.





Accepted and locked in. Thanks.




Locked in. 

Also: There's a tie breaking mechanism, but that way works as well :)

a)420
b)202
c)303

https://blockchain.info/tx/91b070593c7aeb73a21e6dfb3354177e59af7500b43b722c8a4ee7a01049e63a

yikes. 6 confs already (in 28 mins)... network is on fire!

Accepted, locked in, etc.

476
194
292

i will be able to send btc in approx. 24hrs

One tiny bump for exposure. Last day of submitting your predictions.

Come on newcomers, here's your chance to win half a coin. Think of it like a faucet, only requirement is to make a random guess about the price :D

570
210
320

To the Moon!  ;D

https://blockchain.info/tx/3f149e0d0a7282efd185866cf3f542d515015d615fcd7bf2b2220665b5245a9d

Fun contest!

478
192
312

txid: https://blockchain.info/nl/tx/7bacbca5e8f4211a411954a223a76b8be9faef1c33b2c46d7d1761f9c7efb91a

can I make prediction just for the sake of the lulz?

(no spare btc at the moment, sorry)

(a) $275
(b) $87
(c) $191

https://blockchain.info/en/tx/8c0546b1d9528e5031228838fd15283e54f1ef12afe6a00677a1baced78145ae (https://blockchain.info/en/tx/8c0546b1d9528e5031228838fd15283e54f1ef12afe6a00677a1baced78145ae)

Pretty sure I have seen more than one transaction coming from your account previously. Accepted and locked in.



Accepted :)



Accepted as well.



Thanks. Last prediction that will be accepted for this round of the contest. (It was approximately midnight CET, no? :D)

I'll put all the predictions in a table and post it here, plus mean and median values of the entries, when I have the time.



Sure, go ahead :)

Went faster than I thought...


Our collective predictions for the period of February 9 2015 to May 9 2015


https://i.imgur.com/Lc8Jf1z.png

i see what you did there! ;)

edit: looks like I am dead last for the all time low already... man I'm so good it these things :D

edit2: wait a second! those uber low guesses are still worse! hurrah not as bad as I thought

What I find interesting is that out of the 10 submissions, 8 are more or less saying the bottom is in (until May at least), even if there's another test of the near- or sub-200s.

I'm planning to do another round when this one is over (in May), but then I'll find a way for everyone to submit his or her predictions "silently" (something through a Google form I guess), because I'm under the impressions results are skewed by a coordination effect among submitters (that, and the overall residual bullishness of course :D)

I'll have you know, being first and all, I did not coordinate with anyone :P
I do see a bit of tight prices forcing someone to be exactly right in order to win. I didn't notice if the rules are like "The price is right" TV game show where "closest price without going over" is in effect, but some are going to have a bad day.

One more note, I am probably way off now since the landscape has changed a bit since I submitted my prediction. I had a path in mind that now looks like it will be flat out wrong by the time this game ends.  8)

Sadly I missed this.  Going to post guesses anyway.

379, 181, 299.

Look what I found. Almost forgot about this one myself, despite being OP :D

The results are in (coming in the next post).

The price chart of the last 90 days (NB: images scaled, right-click & view to see them in full resolution):

https://i.imgur.com/B9wWpbC.png

---

The price results:

Feb 9 to May 9 2015, Bitfinex
(a) highest price: 303.96 USD
(b) lowest price during previous 90 days: 213.92
(c) value of 90 day VWMA on May 9: 250.65


Results compared to predictions, with ranks:

https://i.imgur.com/nh6fG2V.png


So, by total rank (i.e. sum of rank across questions), from lowest to highest, the Top 3 is:

1 - RyNinDaCleM (rank sum 8)

2 - sgbett (rank sum 11)

3 - inca (rank sum 14)


(and on the last place, with a rank sum of twenty-fucking-five, oda.krell. What a tosser :D)


The winner of this round of the prediction game is RyNinDaCleM, who will receive the original award pledged by myself (0.5 BTC), plus the sum of confirmation transactions that came in to this address (https://blockchain.info/address/19j98wABmLk7QXaNN1ZHRqjBJiLPG7jvhA), for a total award of 0.639056 BTC.


Please let me know which address you want the money to go to, ryn!

---

Stay tuned for the next round of this game. I'm planning to get it started next week, with slightly different rules (mainly: price submissions that are invisible during the submission period), but with the same time horizon (quarter of a year) most likely. Any input/suggestions from you on this is very welcome (different ranking algorithm, for example?).

Finally, it's hard to miss the irony, eh? Price is almost exactly where it was at the beginning of the prediction period (despite there being some swings up and down in the meantime). Take that, both bulls and bears :P

Wow, awesome! :)
I thought about this thread about two weeks ago and was going to bump it and still forgot. Anyway, you can just send it to my forum addy 1RyNzTkafPptkwiMCm5KTjG9bcLRMZBsU.
Thanks for a good game oda!

congrats to the winner.


oda... you´ll get there someday, just keep tryin..  :D


that was fun, thx op

Sent :)

Received, Thanks! :)

It seems this bitcoin things does work. It probably can be used to buy things in internet, just like PayPal or e-gold. :)

Congrats RyN, well deserved win. Looking forward to the next contest. 8)

Just when I wondered if there was only a way to send money globally for next to nothing and receive it instantly...  :o


Thank you sir!

if only i had been just a bit more bearish ;)

nice one RyN

looking forward to the next round. looking even more forward to finally emerging from this period of malaise and hopelessness. its all proceeding textbookly!