I had the idea for a game like this in another thread... I thought it might be fun to get a prediction contest going, similar to
dnaleor's very entertaining trading simulation, but instead of (daily) estimations and trading, going for a mid-term time scale instead - not trying to look years ahead, but to speculate about the market a few months ahead of time.
The rules:(1)
Post your prediction of the following three key market points.(a) The
highest price (any executed order counts that is not reversed by the exchange or a glitch in the exchange data) during the past 90 days, at the evaluation date, as per Bitfinex.
(b) The
lowest price (any executed order counts that is not reversed by the exchange or a glitch in the exchange data) during the past 90 days, at the evaluation date, as per Bitfinex.
(c) The value of a
90 day volume-weighted moving average (daily_close*daily_volume/sum_volume) on Bitfinex data, at the evaluation date.
(*)(2)
To participate, please send whatever minimal BTC amount you want to the following address:
19j98wABmLk7QXaNN1ZHRqjBJiLPG7jvhA.
To be clear: This is not a participation fee, and I am not asking for donations. Send whatever dust amount you can get through, I don't care. I want to add this rule to make sure that only people with at least a bare minimum of interest in BTC are making predictions.
Post your predictions together with the txid of the transfer you just made. First post using a txid is counted, any subsequent post mentioning the same txid is ignored.
Alternatively, sign a message from any of your addresses. Again, it doesn't matter how much it contains, this rule is just to make sure you're actually on the network and not just a
troll bystander. Make sure it can be related to your forum account, e.g. by mentioning your username.
(3)
Evaluating the winner.All valid predictions (= numerical values for all of (a), (b), (c), plus txid or signed message condition met) entered in here are compared at the end of the prediction period to the actual values of (1) (a), (b) and (c).
For each individual question, whoever is closest to the actual value is ranked highest on that question, followed by the poster who submitted the next closest prediction, and so on.
In case of a tie between participants on an individual question, the date of post is used to break the tie, such that the earlier post is ranked higher than the later post.
To determine the overall winner, a final rank is calculated as follows: [rank in answering question (a) + rank in answering question (b) + rank in answering question (c)], with the lowest resulting number determining the overall winner of the game.
In case of a tie at this step, the poster who is ranked highest on question (b), the 'lowest price' question, is the overall winner.
(**)(4)
Dates and Deadlines (all in UTC).(a)
Submit your predictions by posting in here no later than
Sunday, February 8, 2015.
(b) The
evaluation date, i.e. the date at which questions (a), (b), (c) are evaluated by looking back 90 days, will be at the end of
Saturday, May 9, 2015.
In other words, the
prediction period is February 9 2015 (including) to May 9 2015 (including).
(c) The winner will be determined and declared in here shortly afterwards. Same for the transfer of the award specified right below...
(5)
The award.I pledge to transfer 0.5 BTC, or the BTC equivalent of 115 USD (= 0.5 BTC by current valuation) to the winner of this game, with the choice which of the two amounts will be sent being my personal choice at the time of winner determination (I'd say you should probably expect to receive the lower of the two ^_^)
A note to the mods: If offering an award like this means my post counts as "gambling" and would have to be moved to the gambling
ghetto subforum, please let me know. In that case, I'd rather remove the award, but have the post stay in this forum.
Summary:Post your prediction of (a) highest price during previous 90 days, (b) lowest price during previous 90 days, (c) value of 90 day VWMA, all on Bitfinex, as evaluated on May 9 2015, in this thread, no later than Sunday, February 8 2015. Include the txid of a nominal amount transferred to the address posted above, or a signed message mentioning your forum name.Disclaimer:The above rules are subject to change (for example, if someone discovers a game-breaking loophole in them), until the submission deadline on February 8. Only the rules as defined by that date count, including the possibility that the game cannot be held at all (if, for example, forum rules prevent having a game like this in here).
Who's in?
Notes:(*) "Volume-weighted average" (VWMA) =/= "weighted average " (WMA). This prediction is about price weighted by volume. Current VWMA value is ~$290.
Here's a graph of it over the past months.(**) Because most of our discussions right now are about whether "the bottom is in" or not.
