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Title: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 08:14:58 PM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.
This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Kluge on July 20, 2012, 08:21:34 PM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. Nope. That's fairly improbable.This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? Congrats! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: drakahn on July 20, 2012, 08:22:43 PM >martingale strategy
It could have easily led to a total loss, and, over the long run enough of them do to cover any perceived winnings though iirc satoshidice was running at a loss for a while, i do not know if that is the case now Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Clipse on July 20, 2012, 08:28:34 PM Martingale strategy is the process of burying yourself into one big pile of shit.
Thats the most direct way of understand what you did on satoshidice. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 08:30:06 PM Martingale strategy is the process of burying yourself into one big pile of shit. Thats the most direct way of understand what you did on satoshidice. If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. :o Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: ildubbioso on July 20, 2012, 08:35:12 PM If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. :o And how much have you spent? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Murdaversa on July 20, 2012, 08:37:40 PM Martingale strategy is the process of burying yourself into one big pile of shit. Thats the most direct way of understand what you did on satoshidice. If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. :o I believe it was sheer luck, i have messed around with satoshidice from time to time and the results always varied, one time i turned 12 btc into 65btc in a matter of 200 transactions, other times i started with 10 and lost all of it in a matter of 30 transactions... i think its all luck... can someone else explain anything different? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 08:38:41 PM If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. :o And how much have you spent? I started with 30 BTC. I made it to 100 BTC without going into the red. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: finkleshnorts on July 20, 2012, 08:57:43 PM I messed around with a geometric progression (the one time I chose to waste my time on dice) where i would bet
1% 2% 6% 18% 54%. I made a lot of money, then I lost it all. It was quite addictive, because with each subsequent loss, your possible return multiplies. Great, expensive fun. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: CoinDiver on July 20, 2012, 09:02:06 PM The house should easily beat Martingale with a bet cap.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: doobadoo on July 20, 2012, 09:24:05 PM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? Fucking noobs... I've had nothing but terrible luck at SD. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: nimda on July 20, 2012, 09:26:50 PM That strategy will eventually lose when one of these happens:
- You lose all of your money without a win - You hit the maximum bet cap before regaining your losses Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: evoorhees on July 20, 2012, 09:29:03 PM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'(
Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: evoorhees on July 20, 2012, 09:35:39 PM Oh also, the best way to play SatoshiDice is using an ewallet account from Blockchain.info/wallet (http://Blockchain.info/wallet). Inside the wallet, click on the Send Money tab, then on the left side you'll see a SatoshiDice link. The transactions are usually processed faster through this method, and Blockchain.info made a really nice interface IMO.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: elux on July 20, 2012, 09:37:01 PM Quote from: UnitClick Is this normal? Well, it's 1.9% less normal than to lose 100 BTC. You should probably stop now. :) If not: Be sure to post when you lose. It's not good to have gamblers speak only when they're on a winning streak. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic) Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 09:38:02 PM Woah, that's amazing. What was the bet? Or was that from one of the progressive games?
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 09:41:29 PM Quote from: UnitClick Is this normal? Well, it's 1.9% less normal than to lose 100 BTC. You should probably stop now. :) If not: Be sure to post when you lose. It's not good to have gamblers speak only when they're on a winning streak. Will do! I'm thinking of stopping when I hit 150 BTC. That'll give me enough bitcoins to buy some cool stuff from the forums and invest some for the long term. That is, if I don't lose it by then. Besides, I wouldn't want to let evorhees go hungry with my luck ;D Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: elux on July 20, 2012, 09:59:04 PM Quote from: UnitClick Is this normal? Well, it's 1.9% less normal than to lose 100 BTC. You should probably stop now. :) If not: Be sure to post when you lose. It's not good to have gamblers speak only when they're on a winning streak. Will do! I'm thinking of stopping when I hit 150 BTC. That'll give me enough bitcoins to buy some cool stuff from the forums and invest some for the long term. That is, if I don't lose it by then. Besides, I wouldn't want to let evorhees go hungry with my luck ;D Predicted outcome: Reversion to mediocrity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean). If sufficiently persistent: House wins by mathematical advantage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_advantage#House_advantage). Congrats, by the way. :) Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 10:01:02 PM Maybe you're right, I'm back down to 50 BTC right now. Big bets are terrible when you lose. :'( I'm still trying though!
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: elux on July 20, 2012, 10:09:49 PM Maybe you're right, I'm back down to 50 BTC right now. Big bets are terrible when you lose. :'( I'm still trying though! Predicted outcome: Reversion to mediocrity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean). If sufficiently persistent: House wins by mathematical advantage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_advantage#House_advantage). If you can't do the math, you shouldn't play the game. If you can do the math, you wouldn't play the game. (Other than for fun, of course.) This is a bit of a bad sign: Will do! I'm thinking of stopping when I hit 150 BTC. Still, good luck! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: cst on July 20, 2012, 10:19:37 PM Maybe you're right, I'm back down to 50 BTC right now. Big bets are terrible when you lose. :'( I'm still trying though! If you continue playing house will win in the end ;) AFAIR my balance with SD is around +0.01 :P I just stopped when I won my last bet and got even, it was getting too addictive ;) Anyway, good luck. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Lethos on July 20, 2012, 10:26:48 PM It's best to stop when you are ahead. The house always wins.
If you do win, you've beaten the odds, so get out before it gets a chance to win it back. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: EnergyVampire on July 20, 2012, 10:27:02 PM Quote from: UnitClick Will do! I'm thinking of stopping when I hit 150 BTC. That'll give me enough bitcoins to buy some cool stuff from the forums and invest some for the long term. That is, if I don't lose it by then. Besides, I wouldn't want to let evorhees go hungry with my luck ;D Let us know which one you hit first: 150 BTC or 0 BTC We are cheering you on, UnitClick! :D Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: finkleshnorts on July 20, 2012, 10:43:26 PM Chasing doesn't work for martingale. All will be lost. ALL.
Martingale's are for stepping up to a roulette wheel for 15 minutes and leaving with a few extra bucks looking like a champ in front of your friends. Not chasing. The longer you play, the probability of you losing everything quickly approaches 1. For the love of god, don't do this. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: evoorhees on July 21, 2012, 12:59:20 AM It's best to stop when you are ahead. The house always wins. If you do win, you've beaten the odds, so get out before it gets a chance to win it back. @unitclick, i wrote a script to do martingale betting for satoshi dice (it's on this forum somewhere), and quit when i was 30 btc ahead. 100% quit. satoshi dice was a lot of fun for me but if i never play it again, i'll remain ahead forever. I don't like your attitude! If you come back, I'll send strippers and coke for you :) Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Mr. Coinman on July 21, 2012, 01:00:02 AM That's awesome, congrats. If I were you I would jet out of there ASAP and never look back. 8)
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: teek on July 21, 2012, 01:02:53 AM I'll send strippers and coke for you :) shit, it sounds like I should be playing satoshidice.. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: anddy78 on July 21, 2012, 01:08:33 AM It's like BC-Casino, once time I rise close to 100BTC playing blackjack starting with 10BTC and cashout, since then I keep playing and until now I almost lost 50BTC plus the 100BTC earned... But now I quit once for all... ;D
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on July 21, 2012, 01:59:36 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK.
I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on July 21, 2012, 02:11:14 AM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. Wait, what? My idol owns SatoshiDice? Note to self: Do due diligence before choosing idols. (I have no opinion one way or the other on SD) ~Cackling Bear~ Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: John (John K.) on July 21, 2012, 02:11:38 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. Shit, I came in too late to warn you on this. ;)I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. Only way I've managed to stay in the win for SD was to keep betting in multiples of the previous bet, and stopping the game 100% while I was in the win. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: payb.tc on July 21, 2012, 02:12:23 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. now you can see why i feel like a total smart ass staying 30 BTC ahead forever :D Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: mr_gant on July 21, 2012, 04:09:09 AM This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? Hehe. Definitely not. I ended up -25BTC down first time I played. Never again. Makes me want to set up something similar. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: finkleshnorts on July 21, 2012, 05:03:26 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. This just kind of pisses me off. But, hope you had fun and learned a few things. Don't do it again. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Mr. Coinman on July 21, 2012, 06:39:58 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/freddie-mercury-so-close-pose1.jpg Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: johnjay3000 on July 21, 2012, 09:54:42 AM Man, I got pissed when I went from .5btc to 3btc and lost it all, no way i could cope with losing 100 :'(
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: VelvetLeaf on July 21, 2012, 02:48:07 PM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. Pretty much. If 1000 people that gamble there always win 100 BTC, the site will be closed tomorrow. Some people win big, some lose all their money. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on July 21, 2012, 04:48:36 PM though iirc satoshidice was running at a loss for a while, i do not know if that is the case now I regularly post statistics on https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80312 About 24 hours ago they were 3000 BTC up overall: https://i.imgur.com/5hwow.png Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: zvs on July 21, 2012, 07:04:40 PM though iirc satoshidice was running at a loss for a while, i do not know if that is the case now I regularly post statistics on https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=80312 About 24 hours ago they were 3000 BTC up overall: Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Taz on July 21, 2012, 07:10:43 PM Oh man, I feel for you.
Try stopping a gambler when they're winning, Then you'll know the real reason, the house always wins. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Shadow383 on July 21, 2012, 08:05:20 PM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. What kind of reserves do you need to run the site? Also, couldn't help but notice that someone making the max bet on the 64000x multiplier would win 3200BTC if they won :o Do you have enough to pay that out instantly? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: wachtwoord on July 21, 2012, 08:15:16 PM But how much did you lose?
(sorry had to ask :P) Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: strickler07 on July 21, 2012, 08:18:13 PM The warning on SD says that you need a wallet that can receive from the same address that you send. I have Bitcoin-QT. Anyone know if that'll work?
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: wachtwoord on July 21, 2012, 08:23:38 PM Yes it will. With any full client you onw addresses you use to send (they are in your wallet.dat file). It can only be problematic with online wallets where you don't actually have wallet software running yourself.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: cst on July 21, 2012, 08:27:24 PM Yes it will. With any full client you onw addresses you use to send (they are in your wallet.dat file). It can only be problematic with online wallets where you don't actually have wallet software running yourself. blockchain.info wallet actually can receive bitcoins from SD, it even has links to dice set up or something like that (haven't used it myself). But since he's asking about official client it doesn't matter that much :p Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: wachtwoord on July 21, 2012, 08:29:38 PM That's true. I said it can be problematic (depending on the online wallet).
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: VelvetLeaf on July 27, 2012, 09:19:13 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. Which multiplier that you use ? 50.0000%, 1.957x 73.2422%, 1.33x 79.3457%, 1.235x I just tried this SatoshiDice and it's damn addictive. Should've stopped while I'm winning but the addiction is already flowing in my blood ;D Tried twice, still winning so far with that 73.2422% percentage. Quit or not, quit or not, ??? ??? ??? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: TingCoin on July 27, 2012, 04:16:19 PM Me and my bud played some Satoshi with 1.99 coin, aiming for 6. We were doing a variation of all bets, mainly the 25% 30 odd % and 50%. Had a lot of fun, got to 4.6 then back to 2.08 and stopped.
I'm an online poker player whose made £700 from a bit of casual and often play over the course of the year. Been a poker player for a very long time - and the key to winning is self control. When I have a big loss, I won't play for up to a week till I feel confident again to avoid playing on tilt. I'm definitely going to play Satoshi again in the future when I'm in the mood. I know it favors the house but who cares? Bit of fun init :). Are their any good online poker sites which use BTC, and have proper algorithms and a large playerbase? It's always a bitch having to wait 6 days to pull my money out - and BTC is near instant! Never really thought of searching for some poker bitcoin sites... Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: barbarousrelic on July 27, 2012, 04:31:27 PM I've personally lost 8 or 9 50% bets in a row doing manual Martingale on Satoshidice. Luckily this was when I started at .1 BTC.
The real problem with the Martingale strategy is this: Either you or Satoshidice has a limit. Let's say you start with 1 BTC, then 2, then 4, then 8, etc. You're willing to keep going up to your limit, say 128 BTC is all you have (or all that Satoshidice will let you wager at once). That means that each round of run-until-you-win-or-bust is essentially wagering that 128 BTC for a possible winning of 1 BTC. (minus house take & tx fees.) So, if you bust at 128 after 8 straight losses, there's a .5^8 or 1 in 256 chance of losing everything, and a 255 in 256 chance of making 0.78% (minus house take and tx fees). So it's really not any better than betting on one of the high-probability, low-win-ratio games. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: wachtwoord on July 27, 2012, 06:11:57 PM It's much much simpler to see why Martingale is a losing strategy when applied to a game in which the house has an edge. When you play a game which in isolation has an EV (expected value) of less than the amount your wagering any permutation of such bets can never magically become a bet with a positive EV. Your merely playing with variance :)
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: VelvetLeaf on July 28, 2012, 03:14:08 AM It's much much simpler to see why Martingale is a losing strategy when applied to a game in which the house has an edge. When you play a game which in isolation has an EV (expected value) of less than the amount your wagering any permutation of such bets can never magically become a bet with a positive EV. Your merely playing with variance :) What about changing bet value ? I keep winning 4 times in a row with 73% chance, and I have a feeling I will lose on the 5th bet but I read somewhere that changing your bet value isn't good. So I didn't change it and as expected, I lose. If I reduce the bet to 25% I will minimize my loss. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Deafboy on July 28, 2012, 04:03:19 AM I've never been into gambling, but after trying the php bot mentioned above (just because I think automating any task increase the coolness factor to over 9000) and winning more than 100% of the original value.. the temptation is so strong!
I'm not sure what's so special about SD... maybe the fast speed ensure the dope of adrenalin every few seconds :P Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on July 28, 2012, 05:25:42 AM I've never been into gambling, but after trying the php bot mentioned above (just because I think automating any task increase the coolness factor to over 9000) and winning more than 100% of the original value.. the temptation is so strong! I'm not sure what's so special about SD... maybe the fast speed ensure the dope of adrenalin every few seconds :P * Almost instant feedback * Provably fair * Low house edge A winning combination. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: wachtwoord on July 28, 2012, 08:59:31 AM It's much much simpler to see why Martingale is a losing strategy when applied to a game in which the house has an edge. When you play a game which in isolation has an EV (expected value) of less than the amount your wagering any permutation of such bets can never magically become a bet with a positive EV. Your merely playing with variance :) What about changing bet value ? I keep winning 4 times in a row with 73% chance, and I have a feeling I will lose on the 5th bet but I read somewhere that changing your bet value isn't good. So I didn't change it and as expected, I lose. If I reduce the bet to 25% I will minimize my loss. If every single bet you can make has a negative EV (cost larger than profit in the long run) how would changing the bet value make it long term profitable? Answer: it cannot. It's just another fallacy. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: SRoulette on July 28, 2012, 12:46:03 PM That is an amazing run with a traditional martingale strategy, congratulations.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 03:20:19 PM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? shill much? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=57646;sa=showPosts Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on July 31, 2012, 04:00:47 PM shill much? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=57646;sa=showPosts What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: stoppots on August 01, 2012, 12:01:15 AM shill much? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=57646;sa=showPosts What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious? Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled, "I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?" Is this normal? My point being its shilling. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Scott J on August 01, 2012, 12:18:03 AM Me and my bud played some Satoshi with 1.99 coin, aiming for 6. We were doing a variation of all bets, mainly the 25% 30 odd % and 50%. Had a lot of fun, got to 4.6 then back to 2.08 and stopped. I have been playing on SealsWithClubs.eu recently; every Sunday they have a 60 BTC guarantee tournament. I'm an online poker player whose made £700 from a bit of casual and often play over the course of the year. Been a poker player for a very long time - and the key to winning is self control. When I have a big loss, I won't play for up to a week till I feel confident again to avoid playing on tilt. I'm definitely going to play Satoshi again in the future when I'm in the mood. I know it favors the house but who cares? Bit of fun init :). Are their any good online poker sites which use BTC, and have proper algorithms and a large playerbase? It's always a bitch having to wait 6 days to pull my money out - and BTC is near instant! Never really thought of searching for some poker bitcoin sites... I bubbled last time >:( Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: payb.tc on August 01, 2012, 12:39:35 AM shill much? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=57646;sa=showPosts What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious? Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled, "I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?" Is this normal? My point being its shilling. according to mtgoxlive + google, 100 btc is exactly 11802.8 shillings. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: stoppots on August 01, 2012, 02:46:40 AM shill much? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=57646;sa=showPosts What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious? Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled, "I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?" Is this normal? My point being its shilling. according to mtgoxlive + google, 100 btc is exactly 11802.8 shillings. What's your point? His only 11802.8 shillings are now gone. Is that suspicious? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: burtan on August 01, 2012, 04:53:50 AM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? The Martingale betting system can only work if you have an infinite bankroll. Even if you are playing a game that is even 50/50 odds. Over the long run the Martingale betting system sill only leaves your odds at 50%, because the odds of flipping a coin say 7x heads is 128 to 1 and you have to risk 128x your original bet on the 7th flip. At a game that is less than 50/50 (which allcasino table/slot games are) the odds get even worse. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: stoppots on August 01, 2012, 07:58:11 AM shill much? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=57646;sa=showPosts What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious? Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled, "I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?" Is this normal? My point being its shilling. according to mtgoxlive + google, 100 btc is exactly 11802.8 shillings. Appears satoshidice has been unresponsive to several unpaid winning bets going on 4 days now. Is that suspicious? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: purpleplastic on August 01, 2012, 12:04:48 PM Nice one ! :)
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on August 01, 2012, 10:45:17 PM Appears satoshidice has been unresponsive to several unpaid winning bets going on 4 days now. Is that suspicious? It's worrying if nothing else. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: carlos_y on August 02, 2012, 02:14:46 AM you are the one lucky bastard ;D
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: drakahn on August 02, 2012, 04:33:12 AM Appears satoshidice has been unresponsive to several unpaid winning bets going on 4 days now. Is that suspicious? It's worrying if nothing else. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: burtan on August 02, 2012, 05:48:29 AM The simple fact is that if the house has an edge no betting strategy will ever change that unless your bank is bigger than their bank (Good luck with that). The only way to ever win in the long run is to have the edge in your favour. The only Casino game that I know of that this is possible to achieve (without cheating of course) is Black Jack (counting cards), but now days with continuous shuffle this is no longer possible. If you want to gamble and make money find a skill based game where you control the edge and EV (Poker, Gin, Sports etc..) Hard work and good maths is unfortunately the only way to ever profit in the long run
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on August 02, 2012, 06:04:01 AM The only Casino game that I know of that this is possible to achieve (without cheating of course) is Black Jack (counting cards), but now days with continuous shuffle this is no longer possible. Take a look at strikesapphire.com. Their blackjack was very beatable until recently (dealing 65% to 75% of the way through 6 decks before shuffling and allowing a spread from $0.10 to $5.00) and probably still is, but to a much lesser degree. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: bcbuck on August 09, 2012, 01:40:43 PM dooglus,
Just wondering - if their blackjack was beatable - did you clean them out? If not....why not? ;D Cheers Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on August 10, 2012, 07:45:53 PM Just wondering - if their blackjack was beatable - did you clean them out? If not....why not? ;D I didn't clean them out, because I liked the site and didn't want it to fail. I played for the minimum stakes of 10c-$5 rather than the bigger tables, and ended up only winning about $300. I taught my girlfriend how to count too, and she won about the same amount. That wasn't all on blackjack; some of it was on the weekend tournaments which were also "beatable" in a way - there was a $20 or so prize for winning the most each weekend which made some high stake 50-50 roulette bets really worth playing. Then the owner of the site banned us both, and all my friends. He started making crazy accusations, like that my girlfriend didn't exist even though he had spoken to us both on Skype already. It was funny because he knew we were counting cards all along, and kept telling us we were doing it wrong. I'm still not clear why we were banned. The owner has admitted that neither of us broke the site's terms and conditions. But I reported a lot of bugs, and I think the owner took it personally, rather than seeing it as my attempt to help him fix his site. I kind of wish now that I had cleaned them out, but at the time I thought the owner was a decent guy and wanted to see his business really take off. Now, not so much. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: RodeoX on August 10, 2012, 07:53:04 PM The Martingale strategy has worked well for me in blackjack. Though not as profitable as hard work.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: UnitClick on August 14, 2012, 04:16:58 AM Well, after a couple week break from Satoshi dice, I decided to buy another 30 BTC and try it again. I don't know if it's good luck or a good strategy, but after betting many, much smaller sums I ended up making 58 BTC.
I am determined not to lose this. I beat the odds twice and I'm not going to be a poor gambler and try to double or triple it like I did last time. I'm more informed about the odds of satoshi dice and know that the odds will get even worse if I put these coins back into the system. So, where do you guys think I should put these coins? I've been thinking of putting it all into either pirate bonds or the gamma bitcoin fund, but don't know if there's a better option out there. Is there something like Satoshi dice where you can instantly or near instantly speculate on the bitcoin market? I want to get out of playing with chances and start making informed bets where skill matters. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: finkleshnorts on August 14, 2012, 04:59:52 AM Starfish BCB
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Bitobsessed on August 14, 2012, 07:45:22 AM Oh also, the best way to play SatoshiDice is using an ewallet account from Blockchain.info/wallet (http://Blockchain.info/wallet). Inside the wallet, click on the Send Money tab, then on the left side you'll see a SatoshiDice link. The transactions are usually processed faster through this method, and Blockchain.info made a really nice interface IMO. Blockchain.info also has an Android app for a wallet. Now I play SD all the time! Even at work. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: hotdealdave on August 14, 2012, 01:49:00 PM I don't think the OP was shilling, or he wouldn't have stated that he lost the coins later in the thread. On a side note, I played SD myself once, and thought it was really fun and slick. I never got into the black, but made a few rolls and ended up with less than a 1BTC loss. I may try it again.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Meddol on August 14, 2012, 03:31:55 PM Lucky bastard haha
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: drakahn on August 14, 2012, 03:41:34 PM Its amazing how close to "expected" my latest satoshi dice bot is doing, if perfect i would be 140% up in 12000 bets, but with a few loss streaks longer than is worth chasing i am only 20% up, if i had of stopped at the last 'loss' i would be 2% down... of course, the earlier versions of it are all 100% down
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: zoinky on August 14, 2012, 04:21:15 PM Oh also, the best way to play SatoshiDice is using an ewallet account from Blockchain.info/wallet (http://Blockchain.info/wallet). Inside the wallet, click on the Send Money tab, then on the left side you'll see a SatoshiDice link. The transactions are usually processed faster through this method, and Blockchain.info made a really nice interface IMO. I've looked at this tab but I am curious if the funds that are used to play the game are randomly chosen from your addresses? I wouldn't want funds from my Savings address to be pulled to play, can your tell blockchain.info which address you'd like to use? I don't see it, atleast without committing to betting. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: nrb on August 14, 2012, 11:03:58 PM Given the following parameters:
Starting Bankroll: 30BTC Starting Bet: 3 BTC Bet Increase Factor: 2 Game: "lessthan 32768" Running some simulations came to approximately a 13% chance of ending with 150 BTC. In which case it's probably better to just play "lessthan 12000" which gives you a 18.3105% at 5.335x your money. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: jermwerty on August 15, 2012, 06:19:29 AM I know BTC is for the 'bettin man (& risk takers) for sure but I really admit I am surprised the DICE are still rockin it... Too risky for my bood, goodluck all!
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: TenDrawBTC on October 30, 2012, 02:47:25 PM Ok so lets say you have BTC131.072 and you only bet 0.001 to start with and double it each time... Oh and lets say this is on a 36% game.
0.001 0.002 0.004 0.008 0.016 0.032 0.064 0.128 0.256 0.512 1.024 2.048 4.096 8.192 16.384 32.768 65.536 131.072 So basically you have 18 attempts of an improved odds version of rock, paper, scissors of which you are playing with a computer. Although chance has no mercy and has nothing to do with the last attempt, If you always start betting the absolute minimum and not be greedy even if you are loaded with BTC your odds of always winning here are surely very probable. So now lets say you have BTC8388.608 and you start with the absolute minumum bet again BTC0.001 that's 24 attempts of winning on the odds of 36% each time, that's a 12k profit, seems great if you quit when you are ahead Can anyone elaborate on this layman theory... Lets say you had BTC1M and you bet the minimum to start with and use the martingale strategy could you beat the house!? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Fjordbit on October 30, 2012, 03:28:18 PM So basically you have 18 attempts of an improved odds version of rock, paper, scissors of which you are playing with a computer. Although chance has no mercy and has nothing to do with the last attempt, If you always start betting the absolute minimum and not be greedy even if you are loaded with BTC your odds of always winning here are surely very probable. They are probable, In fact, the chance of coming out with a win is 99.967%. The problem is that you have to put BTC262,144 on the line, so the .033% of the time you do lose will completely wipe out any past winnings and could potentially bankrupt you. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Akka on October 30, 2012, 03:35:07 PM TenDrawBTC, I once wrote a simulator for a roulette table, and let it simulate all kind of random strategies by just changing betting odds/wins and behavior variables.
Yours is in there to. I left it running for a few month, simulating billions of turns. All I can say is: "The house always wins. Although the probability of winning in any gambling game 1.000.000 with a starting bet of 10 is still higher than with a 10$ lotto ticket. So there must be people which have something that feels like an endless winning streak and think their strategy works. (By the way Lotto has such a high House edge that nobody would play it in a casino. Don't play lotto!) Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: TenDrawBTC on October 30, 2012, 04:44:13 PM TenDrawBTC, I once wrote a simulator for a roulette table, and let it simulate all kind of random strategies by just changing betting odds/wins and behavior variables. Yours is in there to. I left it running for a few month, simulating billions of turns. That is really interesting. Yep the martingale strategy is a tricky one because you feel like you are invincible. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: pant on October 30, 2012, 05:34:21 PM I've only lost some 10 BTC on satoshi, too.
The biggest win was 4 BTC at time. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: arglassatada on October 30, 2012, 05:57:26 PM and now a word from our sponsor... "I won a bunch of coins on satoshi dice!"
but math is math. In other news, I'm raffling away about 100BTC worth of equipment. You'll need to register on butterflylabs.com forum and vote for me starting tomorrow at 5pm PST for the raffle to take place. It is contingent on my winning a BFL contest. Its free to enter the raffle, just leave a comment on my youtube contest entry. Keep it civil please. here's my contest entry. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=On0r-7XGf0U No risk and a pretty decent chance at winning a bunch of GPU mining hardware! Good Luck. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on October 30, 2012, 07:11:45 PM Lets say you had BTC1M and you bet the minimum to start with and use the martingale strategy could you beat the house!? No. The problem is that each time you win, you win the minimum amount, but the one time you lose, you lose everything. The millions of min bets you win aren't quite enough to make up for the one huge loss when you lose 20 times in a row and get wiped out. The bottom line is that there is no way to profit in the long run from betting on a game which always has a negative expectation no matter how you vary your bet size. The only reason people can make a living playing blackjack is that some of the time it has a positive expectation (which you can determine by counting cards), and those are the times to bet big. With SD, the expectation is always negative, so betting big at some times won't help you. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: JordanL on October 30, 2012, 07:49:04 PM I've had the worst luck with Satoshi dice. Maybe I should try again.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on October 30, 2012, 08:54:11 PM I've had the worst luck with Satoshi dice. Maybe I should try again. Satoshi Dice has been having terrible luck for the last 10 days or so. Either that or someone has figured out how to cheat. I post graphs of their winnings over time. Here's todays: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1307533#msg1307533 Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Invictus on January 06, 2013, 09:19:16 AM I made over 300 BTC, starting with 7.
I hope his family doesn't starve this week. :P Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: marketersales on January 06, 2013, 04:42:47 PM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. Wow i can't believe this?? :/This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: kokojie on January 06, 2013, 05:31:05 PM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? That's completely normal, I've made over 200 BTC on SDice with my martingale strategy. That's exactly what martingale will do for you, it allow you to win small winnings over time, then at some point, you will meet one gigantic loss. How well martingale works depends on the max bet limit and your own bank roll. In theory, if you had a huge bankroll, and the casino allows extremely large max bet, it's unlikely for you to lose even in millions of rounds of play. But eventually, you will lose, the probability guarantees it. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: barbarousrelic on January 06, 2013, 05:40:54 PM The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.
i.e. if you play Martingale starting with 1 BTC on the 50% game and you're prepared to keep doubling at losses up to 64 BTC, you might as well keep betting 64 BTC on the 97.6% odds game. (not exactly sure of the numbers but it's equal at some point.) Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: furrycoat on January 06, 2013, 10:59:09 PM If you did win that much you were truly lucky. I advise everyone to stay away from gambling you will lose your money.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on January 06, 2013, 11:03:59 PM The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy. That's interesting. I looked into this, and found a surprising result: If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5": Code: >>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536 That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x. Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher: Code: win on turn 1 : bet = 18.34444122, spent = 18.34494122, win = 146.76222078, lose = 0.09122220, back = 0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all) I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC. That's a payout of 1.0866x: Code: >>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1 How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that). tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win. Is there a flaw in my reasoning here? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: kokojie on January 06, 2013, 11:07:39 PM The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy. i.e. if you play Martingale starting with 1 BTC on the 50% game and you're prepared to keep doubling at losses up to 64 BTC, you might as well keep betting 64 BTC on the 97.6% odds game. (not exactly sure of the numbers but it's equal at some point.) Not really, my martingale strategy is calculated to have 1 catastrophic loss in about 89000 rounds played, so far I have been lucky and about +200 BTC. The 97.6% odd game is what, 1 catastrophic loss in about 50 rounds? that's not acceptable to me. Also my martingale strategy actually uses the 24% odd game, instead of the 50%. I think the key with martingale is take your initial small winnings, and walk away. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: SouthernComfort on January 06, 2013, 11:33:39 PM I just lost 8$ thanks a lot :'(
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: CashGamer on January 07, 2013, 01:55:56 AM no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value
someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: SouthernComfort on January 07, 2013, 03:52:51 AM no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable! +1 Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: LTC555 on January 07, 2013, 09:32:08 PM If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. :o And how much have you spent? I started with 30 BTC. I made it to 100 BTC without going into the red. You are one lucky duck.... buy a lottery ticket soon lol Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Invictus on January 08, 2013, 04:01:55 AM no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable! You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and you can gamble your way up. I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: jiangchun on January 08, 2013, 05:09:40 AM Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK. I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat. now you can see why i feel like a total smart ass staying 30 BTC ahead forever :D Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Invictus on January 10, 2013, 03:53:30 AM no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable! You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and you can gamble your way up. I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360. As with all dumb people, you just don't understand the difference between short term and long term. Now begonne, ruin your life with gambling. If you're so smart, then why do I have made over 400 coins out of thin air and you didn't? Start with x BTC win your first bet, put the x BTC away. Then it doesn't matter how long you gamble, you cannot lose one single coin. You can only lose gambling money. So why not take the 1.9% risk professor chicken? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Financisto on June 17, 2013, 02:03:12 AM The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy. That's interesting. I looked into this, and found a surprising result: If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5": Code: >>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536 That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x. Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher: Code: win on turn 1 : bet = 18.34444122, spent = 18.34494122, win = 146.76222078, lose = 0.09122220, back = 0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all) I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC. That's a payout of 1.0866x: Code: >>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1 How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that). tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win. Is there a flaw in my reasoning here? Sorry for the topic resurrection after 5 months... But the above observation is interesting. Even though betting < 8000 continues to be -EV... BTW, that's an intriguing issue. And it seems to be a lesser dangerous approach than traditional martingale strategy. Did you come to a conclusion about your previous doubts? Did anyone else think about it? Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on June 17, 2013, 07:38:43 AM Did you come to a conclusion about your previous doubts? Yes, I did: You can either a) place a sequence of martingale bets, starting small, and doubling your stake until you win or reach an upper limit, or b) place a single large equivalent bet for the maximum total amount that a) could lose, aiming to win the same amount as a) would win (you would have to find a site that let you make up your own custom bets. no idea where you would find such a thing ;) ) Since the house edge is constant over all bets, meaning you expect to lose a fixed percentage of everything you bet, and in a) you usually don't bet your whole bankroll, but in b) you always do, a) loses less and is so the better option. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: legendster on June 17, 2013, 07:44:24 AM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: SRoulette on June 17, 2013, 08:01:37 AM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off. 1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm. 2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: legendster on June 17, 2013, 08:29:42 AM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off. 1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm. 2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off. I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: SRoulette on June 17, 2013, 08:32:25 AM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off. 1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm. 2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off. I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money. So if a player gambles and wins the site is fair but if he gambles and loses the site is a rip off ? Sound logic you have there :P Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: larem on June 17, 2013, 10:24:02 AM As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!! :'( Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt. People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck. What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off. 1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm. 2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off. I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money. So if a player gambles and wins the site is fair but if he gambles and loses the site is a rip off ? Sound logic you have there :P Definitely. The site has to get its money somewhere... if it always paid people MORE than they put in, they'd go out of business, lol. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: fast2fix on June 17, 2013, 10:26:52 AM That's good man.Don't bet more you'll loose it all gl.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Doken on June 17, 2013, 10:49:38 AM I haven't many bitcoins to play and loose or win...
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: CryptoCluster on June 17, 2013, 10:58:08 AM "The house always <finally> wins".
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: junglist.massive on June 17, 2013, 11:01:51 AM never again
:/ Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: tspacepilot on August 20, 2013, 02:40:31 PM Yahoo, please send me a donation for the poor if you need help spending your winnings.
Congrats! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: fildza on August 20, 2013, 02:49:30 PM Yup , that the safest way to play but nothing is perfect. When you lose streak until don't have any balance to play because the bitcoin to play very high , then you will down
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: adworker on August 20, 2013, 03:03:43 PM Doubling bet after Loss is good strategy, but you have to start with very small amounts because it can go to very high waggers in very short time :D
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Dorrace on September 03, 2013, 12:18:07 AM Pure luck it takes some time to realise that I play black red on roulette using martingale. Ill bring a 1k bank roll betting minimum $25 bets doubling every loss. But you need a safe call say you lose 4-5 times you cut your loss and start betting at $25 again. I've made 3-10k doing this but in the long run you always lose I quit working for 6 months and just went to the casino once a week last year. In the long run I was down $30k
But I can attribute that to playing shit. Because we are human we aren't perfect. Either you get greedy and start sporadic betting and other times going to the tables while pissed off or depressed you lose yourself. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: monbux on September 03, 2013, 01:06:37 AM I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed. This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much? They get their profits from 99% of the people using the strategy, they just don't know when to stop and eventually they'll lose all their coins, that's probably the case for you, so stop now. with 100 BTC that's enough. Plan some giveaways or something :P Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Dorrace on September 03, 2013, 09:17:26 AM I tried martingale on 24% haha I started with 0.01 went really bad I lost 2btc which was all I had.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: superpanos2 on September 03, 2013, 11:15:33 AM STOP NOW before your winnings get negative.
Martingale helps you win, after that, you LOSE. STOP before you lose! Don't do the same mistakes as me! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Mitchell on September 03, 2013, 11:16:31 AM STOP NOW before your winnings get negative. He already lost. Read the thread. Martingale helps you win, after that, you LOSE. STOP before you lose! Don't do the same mistakes as me! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Galahad on September 03, 2013, 02:25:58 PM People must be mad if they want to waste their Bitcoins on gambling.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Mitchell on September 03, 2013, 02:32:36 PM People must be mad if they want to waste their Bitcoins on gambling. I won most of my BTC because of it ;xTitle: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Dealer on September 03, 2013, 02:33:12 PM Well, as others have said, it's been your lucky day. I suggest you stop though, luck runs out and you might lose all your earnings.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Dorrace on September 03, 2013, 03:16:00 PM People must be mad if they want to waste their Bitcoins on gambling. I won most of my BTC because of it ;xhow much you got Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Mitchell on September 03, 2013, 03:24:26 PM People must be mad if they want to waste their Bitcoins on gambling. I won most of my BTC because of it ;xhow much you got Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dial2mcallister on September 03, 2013, 03:30:46 PM Your made it because you are lucky. Your strategy is not the cause of your profit. There is not strategy to make profit from gamble.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: expertcoin on September 03, 2013, 03:43:38 PM No it is not normal. You are lucky person. 50% chance mean 49.95% chance because you have to pay transaction charge. But you made huge profit.
Congrats.. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Mitchell on September 03, 2013, 06:44:51 PM People read the thread. He lost it all. ::)
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: BitcoinCasino.org on September 03, 2013, 06:59:59 PM Consider yourself lucky!:) Casinos are designed in a way that gives the house (the casino) an edge, typically in the low x% range. That way, in the long run the house always wins, as the saying goes. But that doesn't mean you can't have a good run and win a big amount like you just did.
That's what gamblin is all about! Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on September 03, 2013, 07:42:19 PM There is not strategy to make profit from gamble. Casinos make profits from gambling. The trick is to have the odds in your favour, not against you. You do this by being the house, not the punter. The link in my signature is relevant. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: elor70 on September 03, 2013, 07:51:49 PM you just got lucky thats it
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Dorrace on September 03, 2013, 08:09:25 PM ım gunna hıt martıngale on satoshı. but you really need to use the 48% one because thats the best. even black red ın roullette ıs 48% because people often forget about the 0 ıf that hıts neıther black or red wıns but ıts VERY rare
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: monbux on September 03, 2013, 08:30:32 PM I tried martingale on 24% haha I started with 0.01 went really bad I lost 2btc which was all I had. Oh see THAT's why I didn't invest my BTC in you in BTCjam :) I would never invest in gamblers like you... lol Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: jackjack on September 03, 2013, 10:06:18 PM Doubling bet after Loss is good strategy, but you have to start with very small amounts because it can go to very high waggers in very short time :D Actually it's notYou can't cheat statistics Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: crazynoggin on September 03, 2013, 10:30:07 PM You just have to learn to walk away on a winning bet. Greedy people always loose.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: dooglus on September 04, 2013, 04:21:39 AM ım gunna hıt martıngale on satoshı. but you really need to use the 48% one because thats the best. even black red ın roullette ıs 48% because people often forget about the 0 ıf that hıts neıther black or red wıns but ıts VERY rare At Just-Dice.com the house edge is only 1% compared to 1.9% at satoshidice. The bets are instant, and you can pick the exact chance of winning you want. The black in roulette is 18 in 37 or 48.6486%. Just-Dice.com pays out 2.035x for that chance of winning, compared to 2x in roulette and an effective 2.0165x at satoshidice (if they even offered that bet): https://i.imgur.com/5cdrT02.png The max bet is also higher - you can bet up to 532 BTC at those odds at Just-Dice, compared to around 200 BTC at satoshidice and 100 BTC at the biggest BTC roulette game I know of (bitzino). Oh, and zero isn't "VERY rare". It comes up 1 in 37 spins, or 2.7% of the time. Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: MRKLYE on September 04, 2013, 04:32:00 AM Hook me up!
1Livezo8iDVGhhDo1xoxvbvNspMercBWKC Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: b!z on September 04, 2013, 01:21:03 PM You were lucky, that's all. It is not normal to win this much.
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: faiza1990 on September 04, 2013, 01:31:51 PM as you have 100btc you was under the bed and crying omg is this right ??
Title: Re: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? Post by: Dorrace on September 04, 2013, 03:53:24 PM I tried martingale on 24% haha I started with 0.01 went really bad I lost 2btc which was all I had. Oh see THAT's why I didn't invest my BTC in you in BTCjam :) I would never invest in gamblers like you... lol ım a gambler but ı only gamble wınnıngs - my startıng bankroll ıs always a set asıde value lıke 10-20% of my ıncome. ı spend more on other sorts of leısure ı eat out almost every day ı lıve an expensıve lıfestyle. |
