I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?

[LTC555]

If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. 

And how much have you spent?

I started with 30 BTC. I made it to 100 BTC without going into the red.

You are one lucky duck.... buy a lottery ticket soon lol

[1714030256]

1714030256

[Invictus]

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and  you can gamble your way up.

I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360.

[jiangchun]

Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK.

I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat.

now you can see why i feel like a total smart ass staying 30 BTC ahead forever

+1

[Invictus]

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and  you can gamble your way up.

I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360.

As with all dumb people, you just don't understand the difference between short term and long term. Now begonne, ruin your life with gambling.

If you're so smart, then why do I have made over 400 coins out of thin air and you didn't?

Start with x BTC win your first bet, put the x BTC away. Then it doesn't matter how long you gamble, you cannot lose one single coin. You can only lose gambling money.

So why not take the 1.9% risk professor chicken?

[Financisto]

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

That's interesting.

I looked into this, and found a surprising result:

If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5":

Code:

>>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536
60012.49314412828

That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x.  Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher:

Code:

win on turn  1 : bet =  18.34444122, spent =   18.34494122, win =  146.76222078, lose =   0.09122220, back =   0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn  2 : bet =  20.95186542, spent =   39.29730664, win =  167.62263649, lose =   0.10425932, back =   0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn  3 : bet =  23.92990113, spent =   63.22770777, win =  191.44808952, lose =   0.11914950, back =   0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn  4 : bet =  27.33122595, spent =   90.55943371, win =  218.66002143, lose =   0.13615612, back =   0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn  5 : bet =  31.21600495, spent =  121.77593866, win =  249.73977624, lose =   0.15558002, back =   0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn  6 : bet =  35.65295485, spent =  157.42939351, win =  285.23711477, lose =   0.17776477, back =   0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn  7 : bet =  40.72055959, spent =  198.15045311, win =  325.77993920, lose =   0.20310279, back =   0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn  8 : bet =  46.50845857, spent =  244.65941167, win =  372.08539985, lose =   0.23204229, back =   0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn  9 : bet =  53.11903225, spent =  297.77894393, win =  424.97258068, lose =   0.26509516, back =   1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet =  60.66921318, spent =  358.44865710, win =  485.37698775, lose =   0.30284606, back =   1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet =  69.29255432, spent =  427.74171142, win =  554.36709722, lose =   0.34596277, back =   1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet =  79.14159147, spent =  506.88380289, win =  633.16325523, lose =   0.39520795, back =   2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet =  90.39054140, spent =  597.27484429, win =  723.15926428, lose =   0.45145270, back =   2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent =  700.51372784, win =  825.94703784, lose =   0.51569191, back =   2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent =  818.42660753, win =  943.34475917, lose =   0.58906189, back =   3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent =  953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose =   0.67286046, back =   4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose =   0.76856991, back =   4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose =   0.87788322, back =   5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose =   1.00273399, back =   6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)

I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC.  That's a payout of 1.0866x:

Code:

>>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1
1.0865797129981056

How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that).

tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win.  Is there a flaw in my reasoning here?

Sorry for the topic resurrection after 5 months...

But the above observation is interesting. Even though betting < 8000 continues to be -EV...

BTW, that's an intriguing issue. And it seems to be a lesser dangerous approach than traditional martingale strategy.

Did you come to a conclusion about your previous doubts?

Did anyone else think about it?

[dooglus]

Did you come to a conclusion about your previous doubts?

Yes, I did:

You can either

a) place a sequence of martingale bets, starting small, and doubling your stake until you win or reach an upper limit, or

b) place a single large equivalent bet for the maximum total amount that a) could lose, aiming to win the same amount as a) would win (you would have to find a site that let you make up your own custom bets.  no idea where you would find such a thing )

Since the house edge is constant over all bets, meaning you expect to lose a fixed percentage of everything you bet, and in a) you usually don't bet your whole bankroll, but in b) you always do, a) loses less and is so the better option.

[legendster]

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

[SRoulette]

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

[legendster]

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money.

[SRoulette]

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money.

So if a player gambles and wins the site is fair but if he gambles and loses the site is a rip off ?

Sound logic you have there

[larem]

As the proprietor of SatoshiDice, I can tell you that because you won that 100btc, my family will now not be able to eat this week. So enjoy your winnings!!!  

Actually, someone won 900btc from SatoshiDice a few weeks ago on one bet. THAT really hurt.

People win and lose all the time on the site, but please remember that gambling should always be considered fun entertainment, never let it become an addiction. Also, for those of you who win money from the site, I encourage you to spend some portion of it in the Bitcoin economy. It helps nurture the ecosystem and Satoshi will bless you with good luck.

What is this emotional blackmail ? he won ! why dont you let him enjoy that with a clear conscience, YOU CHOSE to be the proprietor (assuming you are telling the truth) of a GAMBLING site that makes money by ripping people off.

1) I think you missed the implied sarcasm.
2) SatoshiDice does not rip anyone off.

I woundt know that cuz I never tried it, BUT any gambling site makes money by ripping people off their money.

So if a player gambles and wins the site is fair but if he gambles and loses the site is a rip off ?

Sound logic you have there

Definitely. The site has to get its money somewhere... if it always paid people MORE than they put in, they'd go out of business, lol.

[fast2fix]

That's good man.Don't bet more you'll loose it all gl.

[Doken]

I haven't many bitcoins to play and loose or win...

[CryptoCluster]

"The house always <finally> wins".

[junglist.massive]

never again
:/

[tspacepilot]

Yahoo, please send me a donation for the poor if you need help spending your winnings.

Congrats!

[fildza]

Yup , that the safest way to play but nothing is perfect. When you lose streak until don't have any balance to play because the bitcoin to play very high , then you will down

[adworker]

Doubling bet after Loss is good strategy, but you have to start with very small amounts because it can go to very high waggers in very short time 

[Dorrace]

Pure luck it takes some time to realise that I play black red on roulette using martingale. Ill bring a 1k bank roll betting minimum $25 bets doubling every loss. But you need a safe call say you lose 4-5 times you cut your loss and start betting at $25 again. I've made 3-10k doing this but in the long run you always lose I quit working for 6 months and just went to the casino once a week last year. In the long run I was down $30k

But I can attribute that to playing shit. Because we are human we aren't perfect. Either you get greedy and start sporadic betting and other times going to the tables while pissed off or depressed you lose yourself.

[monbux]

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?

They get their profits from 99% of the people using the strategy, they just don't know when to stop and eventually they'll lose all their coins, that's probably the case for you, so stop now.  with 100 BTC that's enough.  Plan some giveaways or something