Bitcoin Forum

The total number of bitcoins must be:   M = (PQ) / V

Let's get real, the total number of BTC as of today is about 13,7 millions.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

In 2022 90% of the bitcoins will have been mined.

hi V for Varoufakis.

I think if you can explain better the formula,
you will be helped better!!!

According to the Book of Knowledge it´s an equation of exchange

M   is the total nominal amount of money supply in circulation on average in an economy.
V  is the velocity of money, that is the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent.
P  is the price level.
Q  is an index of real expenditures (on newly produced goods and services).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange

Which means by 2025 price should be insanely high otherwise miners will have the shittiest incentive to keep mining.

i think this equation it is realy variable...
P it is associate to the high bitcoin volatility
Q it is really hard to quantify!!!

so, it is very hard to get some "understandable" result from it...

IMAHO....

The total number of bitcoins is hardcoded and cannot be changed, i dont know what you are exaclty about. Do you want to propose a new number of total coins or you just want to calculate it?

Calculate it, obviously. It is not my proposition. It is an economic theory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money

It´s a macroeconomic concept. And M (fiat money) can increase ad infinitum but bitcoin can´t.

this is true!!!
now i understand better!!!
thanx!!!

I think M = Deflationary with bitcoin.   Heck, I've lost a btc myself.. darn you complex password!!!  So it'll be M-dumbass's like me. LOL

Let's talk about truth!! No. of bitcoins are 130 Millions..

Mmm, what are we talking about here?
total amount of bitcoins is 21 million this is basic..

How do you get the "V", Check the Blockchain? But there are some off-chain transaction been made everyday.

It would probably be better to write it like this since M is "fixed":

P = MV/Q

13.82m mined as on date, we will be over 75% mined by the next halving. We are at around 65% of max supply right now

this is wrong!!!!

check here

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

this is correct!!!

same link....
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

what will happen with the price if that happen ?



Eventhough there are a ton of bitcoin, If people doesn't trust into it, the price will not very affect

21million bitcoin are there to he mined but what about those which is already mined and we are using it....can't we can use it again and again like a faint currency

seven years are really an geological era in digital currencies...

and if btc will be there on 2022...

i think it will be already become a world currency standard!

A major crash in the financial world is inevitable. It´s just a question of when.


http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging

This is the number of "real bitcoin" but please consider
how  fractional-reserve can generate inflation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=945881.0

it is happening now in some country i believe, slowly, but not major, instead it is like cancer, creeping through your body and you wont even know that until years passed by and it started to show its true form

thank you for your article gbianchi
i have read your reeeeeeeeeally good article in fractional reserve...

very interesting...

but the fractional reserve can increase the transaction and the total amount of moved bitcoin,
but not the number of bitcoin who are mined!!!

Yeah, it´s a gradual thing. The unbelievably manic warmongering we´ve seen especially for the past year is probably a sign that the crack is drawing nearer if you will.

The annual output of the planet is leveraged many times over. And that leverage keeps ballooning. The probability that it´ll end well is probably zero.

The collapse is happening, but they are doing everything needed to not cause mas panic, like a demolition man demolishing a building.

true. "Mined bitcoin" are know number (actually 13.8M) but "bitcoin in curculation"
are inflationed by exchange use of fractional-reserve.

The problem is that bitcoin in circulation make the price !

It won´t be much of a problem if and when some real volume comes in. Then they´ll presumably have to cover. With such a tiny float BTC could move really fast.

sure ? take a look at this

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Exchanges

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d

more than 140 exchanges, with ALL this trading volume.... really we need this ?

BTC has no volume to speak of. It´s really microscopic.

On a very good 24 hr.period it trades like 1/60th of what for example Facebook stock turns over in a 6.5 hr. session. On the average it´s more like 1/100th.

Compared to FOREX that turns over 5 Trillion dollars in a day, BTC volume is just pocket lint.

P.S. Last 24 hrs.  volume 20,617,800 = 1/150th of Facebook stock turnover in a session. Pocket change.

Of course this microscopic volume and almost total lack of any buying interest makes BTC a sitting duck for short sellers and is obviously the main reason why it has been in a free-fall for a year now.

if you are right, every "little" or "microscopic" market cannot exist, or if exist it must implode....

And bitcoin market is thin, but has a in a month exchanges handled 20,000,000
of btc, about 4 Billion of dollars, not so "microscopic"

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=30d

No volume, no buying interest = constantly tanking price.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Some data from blockchain show that BTC ecosystem is growing:

https://i.imgur.com/ygUagik.png

This chart shows the growth of the addresses and transactions.
As we see, the growth of the addresses is quite stable,
the transaction is a bit more sluggish,
but has always remained around 30% throughout 2014.

Remember that the y-axis scale is logarithmic !


https://i.imgur.com/y0AlCcs.png

In this chart I overlay addresses and transactions with prices and some quadratic regressions

quadratic regression of 2014 has strong negative slope .... against the trend
to all other phenomena that are growing significantly

Well, I certainly hope that the bottom from what a month ago was the last bloody one and from now on it will be an upwards march. Like i said, with any meaningful buying volume this thing could move REAL fast. The real float is a few million coins. That´s nothing in say a billion dollars´day.

Even after applying logarithmic progression the trend is broken to down, so we better start going up again in the next months, otherwise it will show a global downtrend in all graphics.

hi galdur..

i remeber you who forex was born 1971...
and it is an exchange who use currency much more older...

bitcoin it is at the beginning...

and it come out to the big public, just on 2011, and then in 2013 when it reach 1000$

so we have a long road to do

Yeah, I´m convinced that at some point meaningful buying volume will come into bitcoin. And then, with this small float, it will move very fast.

But the problem is a scam-ridden marketplace and shady and primitive "exchanges" where you can´t really leave any meaningful capital overnight because the "exchange" might have disappeared the morning after. So, there´s no regulation and  no law enforcement. Obvious and eminently predictable result:  a paradise for scamsters and criminals. Attract criminals to a marketplace = destroy all trust and confidence in what is being traded and the trading platforms. It´s rather elementary. This system very effectively keeps any big money away from bitcoin, ensures tepid volume and interest and attracts short sellers. Why this insane system that very clearly is self-destructive is in place is beyond me. I thought some major brain boxes were behind bitcoin.

give to bitcoin ecosystem a few time!!!
and this problem will be fixed by P2P echange!!!

no third part needed to trade bitcoin!!!
no more mtGox

P2P exchange, huh ? Sounds good, I´ve been a decade in the torrents and that unregulated system has always worked like a charm for me. If this is along similar lines and on the way I feel much better about bitcoin already  ;D

In any event; what is most important in marketplaces is a level playing field for the market participants. If the marketplace system is designed such that it actively attracts criminals and scamsters, this soon destroys all trust and confidence. Criminals just have an unfair advantage over those who want to conduct their business in an honest and fair manner. So, the primary purpose of regulation and law enforcement is to level this playing field.

Now; when you have this bitcoin which clearly is a threat to the present monetary system and therefore also to politicians (the government that puts in place this regulation and law enforcement that at least tries to level this playing field in real markets here on planet earth) that are funded into office by said financial system and other corporate interests

well then you can´t really be awfully surprised that the bitcoin marketplace has this insane self-destructive urge.
Right ? It plays right into the hands of those it threatens. It´s the sorry truth, I´m afraid. Those behind the system are a mix of useful idiots, retarded libertarians, anti-government kooks of diverse flavors, anti-fiat cultists and government/corporate agents.

here a short list about P2P projects...

hope you enjoy it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=330729.0

 ;)

It's in italian tho. Also where the hell is Maidsafe

hem hem...

link and URL are link and URL...
in eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeevery language

 ;)

just click on site if you want open direct info

 ;D


have fun!

Thanks redhairy I´ll check this out. Good luck, g

Regulation sets very high barriers of entry for new companies so it reduces competitions and advantages the existing big companies to the detriment of the entrepreneurs.

Maybe so, but you could also say that the police sets barriers for the entry of criminals in a marketplace. Which is important. Obviously those who operate honestly and according to the law are at a competitive disadvantage against those who don´t have to factor in taxes, regulation expenses and such and can just abscond with customers´funds at their leisure. And this creates a constant overhang of uncertainty in a marketplace and over time all trust and confidence goes out the window.

is this thread a joke ? the total amount of bitcoins is already known , and not hard to check about 21m if i dont remember wrong

It is not a joke. It is a proposal, based on quantity theory of money.

It´s a valid topic. Unfortunately I´m way too dumb to discuss macroeconomics so I soon get off topic.

i think you do not understand the theme!!!

in the op you cann read a macroeconomic formula!!!

I do not even know...
but then...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange

and everything became clearer...

at least i understand the theme of the thread !!!

have fun!!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D

 So other than me reading the 1000 websites that tell me the total number of coins, how do we actually know?

I am sure the blockchain can tell me, but is there anyone that is is actively reconciling the blockchain with what we think is in it???

why so mean.... ELI5

It seems to me that someone who has been on this site for over a year and has made over 800 posts should know that every node in the network looks at every transaction in the block chain.

All informations, P,Q,V, are into the blockchain.

I don't care so much about the total whole number of bitcoins.  I'm more for appreciating the value of each satoshi and hope that one day a satoshi will be like a dollar.

then how when mining bitcoin exhausted?

the price will be more expensive?

if so I will fill it, but too long

there are a lot of factors
who do the price of bitcoin!!!
think on what appends where mtGox and bitstamp was stolen...
and this is only the more striking!!!

and not only the number of coins that are in circulation, or the fact that there will be no more created new ones .
Also then the protocol can always be changed !!