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I'm thinking of buying a flat in Amsterdam or rather taking a mortgage out more specifically. Mortgage rates are pretty good and if I choose to I will have to invest little of my own money.

Pros:

• It's in a bustling major city
  The market seems to have bottomed and is in a small upswing
  Easy for me to get a good size mortgage
  Rates are very low
  Some tax benefits to owning
  Beats renting
  Can always rent it out fairly easily if I end up having to leave Amsterdam

Cons:

• The Netherlands has punitive yearly taxes on owning real estate
  Heavy deflation could turn the purchase sour
  If I have to rent it out the bank will likely crank my interest rate up (no point in trying to rent it on the sly, I just don't want that kind of headache)
  Somewhat hefty pricetag for intitial fees, survey ect..
  Some regime uncertainty since The Netherlands is very leftwing and has only recently liberalized parts of their property market in the past few years
  Could end up with a revalued mortgage if the single currency crumbles?

I'd really appreciate your thoughts guys, please point out any errors in my thinking or things I have overlooked... Thanks in advance!

One thing I'd perhaps consider is the "floating houses" (assuming there are still homes available).

And when I say "floating" I mean literally floating on water (saw it on a Discovery Channel program some time back).

Probably not, too much regulation, at least in the city of Amsterdam. I will only consider brick and mortar at least for now! :)

I've read in some local news articles that Berlin is a good option for an investment in real estate due to it's growing population and a slow construction rate..

Some articles say it was the "secret hot" real estate investors spot for the past few years and it is growing.

One more thing- I've been meaning to look at the cyclicality of housing in Amsterdam or the Netherlands, I've been unable to find up to date data on it. I'd like to compare it to stock indices.

I've found extensive historic data and some economic reports from banks, but still nothing like the raw data I can hack into a spreadsheet.

Thanks, but I live in Amsterdam :)

Is it for living ?

Yes, I work in the centre, sorry if I wasn't clear on that.

OK then, good luck anyway. I visited the Netherlands once and loved Amsterdam  :D  A good friend of mine also got married to a dutch and are living there.  ;D

Thanks mishax1! I really like it here too (I'm British). I'm just still a little unsure if it's a 'good' time to buy. I suppose if it was a 'good' time I'd probably already be priced out though! I don't care about capital appreciation- it'll be a home and a very long term investment to me. But I'd rather not wipe out my finances on a silly decision too.

Amsterdam's definitely a major city so it's look like a safe investment, if you can afford property tax, which can only go up.

I advise on getting a fixed-rate loan. The interest rate shall not change with your occupancy or renting. And don't worry about the euro crumbling. Your loan will not be pegged to the US dollar, nor the Swiss franc.

Thanks countryfree. I included it last as I see the euro ending as a remote possibility, but one to at least acknowledge.

The property tax is affordable even if it's hard to swallow paying it. I'm not sure it will increase significantly though at least for the next few years.

The rate will be fixed for a minimum of 10 years. I am considering 15.

Good taste ;D

you're buying directly with bitcoin, or conveting to fiat first?

I'll be taking a mortgage out. I'm not that bitcoin-rich, so just plain old fiat based debt! ;)

I've already sold half of my bitcoin when it became clear (even to me) that there would be a washout, which happened and now I'm waiting for the bounce that we've witnessed to terminate, to go long again.

i think its a good idea , ive heard good things about buying houses in amsterdam. saw some article about it while back , not sure where tho : >

From a speculative/rental property point of view it is probably a reasonably good idea. But nothing is ever certain, I am in a lucky position of having access to some favorable finance options due to my bank/job so it may be worth the risk.

Besides the financial risk, you may be warned about climate change. I've seen maps where most of Holland was flooded because of rising sea levels. That could happen sometimes around year 2200. Maybe as soon as 2150.

You know, that's the only factor that I have not taken into consideration. Amsterdam isn't far above sea level. But if it's one thing the dutch can do it's water drainage. Probably worth doing some research into, thanks.

Isn't Europe about to collapse into a Sovereign Debt collapse BIG BANG this year (or next) according to Martin Armstrong's models. In what universe would that not mean a collapse in real estate prices and an increase in taxation??

Armstrong has also written about the bubble in real estate in Switzerland. He has also written about the real estate loans throughout Europe denominated in Swiss francs, that will blow up because of the abrupt and egregious appreciation of the franc since the Euro peg failed recently.

C-O-N-T-A-G-I-O-N.

The comments in this thread are interesting because it means there are some (most?) who still don't believe the contagion will affect all of Europe (are they correct?) and thus the stampede out of Europe will be abrupt as these people wake up to a contagion and try to all exit at the same time too late.

If the house still in a good case you can sure invest in it , maybe after 10 or 11 year you will
get you ROI but don't forget that the house will still on your hand too you can then rent it as
you want and sell it after that  8)

You know I agree that the direction the West is going is not good. I am just wondering if this can kicking cannot go on for a long time yet- just look at the freak show in Greece right now, it's like watching a punch and judy show. I think that there is some argument that as everything is falling apart, real estate in affluent major cities could retain some safety- see London for example where wealthy multinationals have been buying up huge chunks of houses, largely French and Chinese.

Doesn't Martin Armstrong also advocate getting a long term fixed rate mortgage right now if you can?

In a worst case scenario, I'd be out maybe 7000-9000 eur on fees and surveys, a state mandated insurance (that the borrower pays for) backstops the banks in case of default.

I see it one of two ways- best case I have a cash-flowing property in the long term, worst case, I along with the rest of Europe go into default.

Be sure I will be reading through my terms and if in the event of default I will still be on the hook for the mortgage in the event of bankruptcy I will seriously reconsider my position.

Renting in the future is the major incentive for me. The other benefits I would get from owning are a bonus.

Buying now is a good option. Mortgage rates are low as are the housing prices. Buy cheap and loan cheap. If you have money to invest to downsize the mortgage amount you should do so.

While living there yourself you can deduct the interest and the monthly cost would be far less then when you would have rented a place like that. If you ever consider to leave and rent it out, try dividing it in rooms for students.

For now if you would rent it out, the first three years you do not have to pay taxes for the possession of the house or the rent income, though you loose the deduction. And only if you have the house for sale, bit shady, because having the intention to sell is enough. 'Stille verkoop'

Good luck and go for it!! Do not worry about the water levels, luctor et emergo ;)

I will not over extend myself with debt, this is the first time I have considered any debt I could not pay off the next day. But I will also not tie up any of my savings unless I have to.

Thanks for the advice neoneros.

Let's hope the rest of the West can luctor et emergo to!

Email Martin Armstrong and ask him.

He wrote about real estate (this is a global model I think):

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/26/real-estate-the-business-cycle/

Thanks iamback. I appreciate the link. I'll have a read and I'll email him too.

Ah this is the article I cam across recently. I'm certainly not pinning my hopes on capital gain. But with a fixed rate mortgage and assuming I had to rent the place out, rents would have to fall by approximately 40% for me to start being concerned about my mortgage payments.

I do like the idea of getting a yen loan, but with the euro being such a basket case any significant fluctuation in exchange rate means that it'd be simply too risky.

I'd buy that house and rent it out using AirBnB. Good money right now in Amsterdam !

I have noticed this as well. A lot of hassle if you are away from the city though.

in a AAA location or?

Yes it would be in a desireable area, if it wasn't the debt would be essentially meaningless to me as housing in less desireable areas is well within my ability to pay down quickly.

I had to idea you were British, i thought you were dutch! How long have you been in NL now? we should do a beer sometime...

I have a few friends that just entered into he property market and yes they all think now or a few month ago was the time to buy.

What areas around the city are you thinking?

considering you can find a place for the equivalent of 10-15 years rent in the private sector i would say f*cking go for it.

If i had any long term ties here on knew i was going to be here for a a long time i would buy instead of renting, but i am thinking of other paces in a year or two.

I took a job last year and moved here, like I said, I've really loved living here so far.

A beer sounds good! :)

There are some nice places near Vondelpark, since I'd like to buy a dog too, this might be the best option if I can find an appropriate place. I'd want a balance between decent place and good location. Since I'm not married to the idea of buying in places like the centre or the Joordan (though not ruled it out) there seem to be a decent number of properties out there. Seems a few people are asking a bit more than they are really worth though.

Properties in Amsterdam are always available, i keep an eye on the market since i got here 2.5 years ago, its a beautiful city and lots going on so its a great place to buy and potentially rent, or just for living purposes you are saving small fortune compared to private rental prices.

If i were going to buy a property in the city i would aim for Old west, pijp or i guess the jordaan, but i really do prefer it just outside the central canal ring, personally i don't spend much time in the center these days apart from a few select bars or local bitcoin sales. really though cycing makes anywhere accessible. I was actually looking around the 150k range just the other day, there are some nice apartments/studios out there!

What are you looking for, studio, 1 or 2 bedroom? I personally would advice a 2 bedroom due to the potential extra income but budgets may not allow for that.

I agree with your choice of locations. My upper limit is 200. I don't think I'd feel comfortable taking out more debt than that (or tying up savings in equity). I wouldn't be able to rent out extra rooms while living in a two bedroom- my significant other would not allow it  ::)

As I wrote earlier, I like the idea of renting it out as there is such demand in this city... I mean when the government strangles the housing stock by owning more than half of the properties, it makes sense to take advantage of the distortion in the market.

If it was up to me I'd probably buy a studio in/near the centre, but it wouldn't work with my wife too, so I need to consider 1 bedrooms really.

Yeah tenants rights in NL are crazy in favor of the tenant.

I always felt kind of wrong knowing i could go to the huur commissie and potentially have my rental rate dropped if my apartment does not meet the bill and possible leave the landlord paying part of his own mortgage for me to stay in his apartment.

I'm aware of the risks involved with renting, the laws seem to be better than they were a few years ago, but still very pro tenant- which is fine if there is a genuine need, but I have read a lot about people taking advantage of this. This is why I'd probably choose to rent to trustworthy expats.

I'm aware of the banks not liking this and have read that they can increase the rates they charge if you let them know you are renting it out.

I think the bank would likely be flexible (it is a point I will discuss with them), when presented with either having a default or slightly increased risks from allowing the property to be rented. Besides, I wouldn't take on debt I could not afford so the property could be paid off without a tenant too- just wouldn't be ideal.

http://www.moviepilot.de/files/images/0516/1202/NEW_KIDS_TURBO9.jpg watch out for these guys :)  :)

expats are generally ignorant to the rental laws in NL so yes good wise choice and yeah the laws have changed slightly but still favor the tenant but i think it is easier now for a landlord to make his appartment "better" than what the point system requires thus negating the ability for the tenant to use the commissie, you just need over 120-140 points on paper i think it is and your apartment you can charge whatever you want.

I wouldn't rent out my spare room on the full time either but i would do short term rentals to friends and friends of friends when visiting the city, depending how frequently you know people visiting the city and how much the spend on private apartment rentals for a weekend, there is potential to help them out with large discounts and help yourself with an extra income and just for maybe 2 weekends of the month.

Well, I'm not intending to be greedy, so hopefully I can strike a balance if I ever come to rent it out. Even just for weekends.

Since I'm an expat I will be required to take out insurance against the mortgage, so as I think I've wrote before, it's a gamble but there are elements that mitigate this risk.

LOL I think I get the message. Reminds me of the UK a lot.

Just another thing, I really appreciate all the advice, pointers and general chat. It's helped somewhat put things a little more into perspective. Keep em coming guys! And if this thread starts to slow down I'll be sure to let you all know how it goes!

Not concerned about language barriers?  Don't they speak Dutch there?  It's wierd there are tax breaks but then punitive taxes?  I'd be interested to live there too just because the liberal and progressive ideas seem to be more free.

Most everyone with a decent level of education knows English, also I am starting Dutch lessons this month, so language is not much of an issue.

Liberal and progressive mean different things than perhaps when a libertarian would say them. The Dutch are very tolerant - in the common zeitgeist sense of the word. On the flip side they have extremely harsh 'hate speech' laws. Similar to the UK. But yes, as long as you're not a racist nut job you're fine ;) In fact, I feel safer and more comfortable here than I ever did in any city in the UK, perhaps that is more free, but honestly the West has a fairly common baseline of freedom in comparison to say- China or Russia. There are still junkies and agressive assholes around, but to a far smaller degree than London. Where are you from grendal25?

The taxes are strange- you get breaks when paying a mortgage, but every year you pay a tax on ownership. The taxes are to incentivise ownership (tax break) but to disincentivise the monopolisation of property by wealthy landlords (I assume, yearly percentage taxation). Because the market is so distorted despite the yearly tax it is still cheaper to own than to rent.

Any Dutch here please correct me if I am wrong in my explanations.

I know you are trying to talk yourself into doing it. Moving to NL was the wise move, but not if you fall into the debt trap there!

Save up your cash to buy BTC at the coming bottom below $150 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg10639194#msg10639194), then get rich and pay cash for very cheap houses in 2017 or 2018.

Don't turn yourself into a debt slave like this other fools who are commenting in your thread.

The confidence party ends in Europe in 2016.


http://i0.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/traders-cartoon.jpg?resize=540%2C466 (http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/02/human-nature-the-economic-trends/)

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/02/consumer-credit-moving-higher-into-2015-75/

The idea that we are in some protracted dead cat bounce before the shitshow begins lines up with Armstrong's posts, which I have some familiarity with, but not in-depth. I will have to read his past reports for perhaps a more long term view. Definitely something to consider.

It's a hard decision, on both hands there seem to be logical and emotional reasons to buy/abstain.

I edited my prior post. There is no doubt that Europe will be in severe crisis by 2017. If you can't hedge the decline in the value of the house, then don't dare do it unless you are sure you can sustain a multi-year (probably decades) waiting period for the value to come back up again (and that your income to pay the mortgage can't be in jeopardy when Europe collapses starting next year). That is what the Armstrong link I gave you said.

Right now the strongest economies of Europe are receiving an influx of capital because capital is fleeing the peripheral economies of the world which are already collapsing. But this contagion will spread to the core of Europe next year. Germany's DAX will peak Oct. 2015, then collapse into an abyss. Then capital will flee to the USA. Then the USA dollar and stock markets will peak in 2017, and then we collapse into war by 2017 or 2018.

If you need some more advice pointers and a general chat feel free to invite yourself for some beer/coffee/tea. Might be good for your language skills too :)

Honestly my Dutch is only good for ordering beer. I understand the gist of it rather than being able to formulate any logical responses. It helps that it's latin based and there are obvious similarities with Engels.

Give me a couple of months of my lessons and hopefully I'll be able to ask for more than a beer!

Of course, you've got to set yourself priorities when you learn a new language.  :D

LOL yes I know it's pretty shameful. I have been listening to lessons to get familiar with it, but ever since my company told me they will be paying for formal lessons this month I've been a bit of a slacker.

Another thought- I certainly will be making sure the property is above average. While the quality of rental accommodation is better than the UK, it's still way below what is possible with a few weekends of work and some trips to Ikea!

I would say go for it mate. If you feel that the investment will be worth it for you in the future even though Europe is kind of experiencing a decline in economy..why not? Its something you want...so follow your heart mate. You do have the choice to get things and you know pamper yourself a little bit from time to time.

Unfortunately I think you are set on destroying yourself, but in any case, I will offer some math to try to convince you:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10650637#msg10650637

Thanks iamback, despite what I write I've not fully made a decision yet.

This is an interesting chart and an interesting historical record of housing prices in the Herengracht canal ring:

https://hotelivory.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/a-very-long-view-on-house-prices/ (https://hotelivory.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/a-very-long-view-on-house-prices/)

https://hotelivory.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/herengracht21.jpg

It's a shame that it doesn't come up to 2015, but that's quite easily to imagine.

I am confident you can find a way to justify to yourself to buy high and sell low, if that is what you really want.

If I buy and everything goes as badly as you expect then I'm not so sure that price will matter or that default will be high on my list of worries.

Are you set on Amsterdam, or would you consider buying in other cities?
Rotterdam & Den Haag have much cheaper houses, and the buy/price relation is quite nice from what I hear, perhaps even compared to Amsterdam.

A world of caution, independently of where you buy it - there are many many houses in The Netherlands that are set on government land, which means you'll pay land rent for it. It's not always clear in the advertisements. Make sure the house is on "eigen grond".

Hi okthen, I have read about this yes, you pay like a ground rent to the government right?

Yes, it's called "erfpacht". The amount of the canon can really vary, it's normally payed per half year. Some houses are on a "permanent lease" without costs (normally someone in the past payed the canon for a long amount of time, or some special permission was conceded). In this case you pay 0, and normally the contract states something like 99 years as the lease expiration date.

Just something to look out for :)

Thanks.

Very similar to what's called 'leasehold' and 'freehold' in the UK- land owned either by a private land corporation (old money I assume) or by the government. Freehold is in the name and is largely free of any yearly costs.

Also yes, I have considered the lower priced housing in Den Haag and Rotterdam, they are very tempting as they are well within my budget and obviously you get a lot more for your money/debt. I believe Den Haag has the best rental yields in The Netherlands, but this is not a sole factor in my choosing to buy, but certainly something to remember.

Not as pretty as Amsterdam, as far as I can remember, but also not so blatantly modern as Rotterdam :)

If I had the money I would buy a nice small house over the countryside in waterland.


https://richardtulloch.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/zuiderwoude.jpg

I would use solar panels to make it self sustainable, the problem is I dont know if they will snitch on me that im using solar panels and they would force me to pay some stupid ass tax.

A small car would be needed to take trips to the city and buy some legal pot :)

When you write 'car', Don't you mean a Canta?  ;)

http://www.volksforum.com/albums/files/7/5/Canta2006.jpg

You might need to leave NL for example.

It absolutely will go as badly as I expect (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10687107#msg10687107).

I really appreciate your concern iamback. I will continue to read Armstrong. I mentioned about watching his DVD, I think I need to see him cohesively presenting his research before I do anything.

Interesting article on the Dutch housing market talking about the bubble:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39921.html (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39921.html)

Interesting post from Armstrong:

 Here (http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/14/real-estate-15yr-v-30yr-mortgage-new-electronic-currency-coming/)

The taxes will not be raised to that extent, for the politicians themselves and everyone involved are too deep into this mortgage structure with tax deduction they cannot sanely make that decision. They would undermine their own homes, greedy and all they have the most profit from the system and the biggest incentive to come up with a different sollution.

That has been my thinking too. Armstrong advocates 3 outcomes: Deflation, Restructuring of debt or Inflation, I'm still not versed enough in his writings to decipher the ultimate result that he advocates (for Europe) over the next few years.

It seems to me that there will be defaults with Greece starting the fun, I'm not sure what happens after that, doesn't bode well for the euro though.

They said that it would never happen in Wiemar Germany too. Ask Ann Frank how that worked out.

Your worst fears will come to fruition.

Armstrong is hoping it won't, but he knows damn well the danger that we face.

So we should all live in fear of the worst and decide on that on our life's choices? That is a very grimm outlook of life and not one that pusrsues happiness in a world of gloom. Hope is what drives people, hope and greed of wanting more, more hapiness. What does truly matter?

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Mar 16: banksters benefit from the BIS Basel enforcement
From:    iamback
Date:    Mon, March 16, 2015 8:47 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------


True hope (as opposed to abject failure) is recognizing reality and making the adjustments needed to be prosperous.

If no one adjusts, then the abyss will be much worse.

All (or most) of Europe's banking and sovereign debt is a house of cards with insignificant actual solvent Tier 1 capital. The insolvent sovereign bonds are used as the Tier 1 capital for the banks' reserves (even in Germany). The banks are not forced to mark-to-market until Greece (et al) actually default. Thus the entire extent of the collapse is hidden from the accounting. The defaults will spread like dominoes due to mark-to-market rules of the BIS Basel rounds (and hmmm the banksters created a Basel system to cause the collapse and usher in their one-world reserve currency "solution") once the first defaults get underway. Armstrong had correctly predicted Austria to be the location of the first defaults. And now we see it has started. Draghi's QE will buy a few months hiatus only (and line the pockets of the banksters under the ruse of "domestic policy objectives" bullshit).

The entire thing is going to collapse horrifically.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/austrian-black-swan-claims-its-first-foreign-casualty-german-duesselhyp-collapses-be

The banking system is Europe is F.U.B.A.R.[1]!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/few-quick-reminders-why-nothing-has-been-fixed-europe-and-why-ltro-3-not-coming

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-16/italian-bed-debt-hits-record-197-billion-bank-lending-contracts-unprecedented-33-con

[1] Fucked Up Beyond All Repair

Nadeem Walayat is usually correct. Appears buying a house in the UK or getting involved in UK real estate will be sustainable for at least 2 years; whereas, Europe is ready to slide over the cliff as of October.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49783.html

just buy btc man......fuck the bank and there mortgages in an inflated property market.

half the city is laundered money.....

Part of me says yeah this is adult Disneyland for tourists and prices just go up, especially for short term holiday rentals

the other part of me says...... soon, maybe even now given recent articles, the average person cannot afford the house prices here, something has to give.

either its is doomed to be the Venice of the north, where no one stays but everyone visits or prices need to go down, that's rental and buying.

HODL!

Fuck it i'm drunk, what do i know......

Yes, his forecasting is pretty good, especially regarding the UK. He has been advocating property in the UK for a couple of years if I remember rightly.

I will be waiting until October to see what happens probably.

I agree, while the UK housing is manipulated up, it is coming to a point where no-one can afford to buy, especially in London. So either I'll be kicking myself in a few years time or I'll be witnessing another bubble pop in the UK and here in Amsterdam.

I have no idea how the average guy could afford anywhere even close to central in Amsterdam.

Well, an affordabe option would be Amsterdam-Noord. With the metro line coming in a few years (maybe 10  ;)) this will be a good investment for the future. IJburg is an option. The centre is always a good investment, but can you afford it. The rent is very for a loan is very low at the moment, so good time to buy!

Thanks for the input, I didn't know about the metro line being built.

For now I am going to see what the market does. I have not mentioned that my bank has changed the terms of any mortgage I take from them, so it's not as attractive to me to buy a house right now.

Make that 20 years or more, due to sovereign debt contagion crisis that will impale the EU from 2016 - 2024 at least.

Yes he did. And apologies I was thinking the UK would bust with Europe as of October 2015, but now I realize the USA and UK are independent because they (or were) reserve currencies[1] and thus they will get ingress of safe haven seeking capital that is fleeing the collapsing EU, China[2], and Japan in 2016.

[1]

Quote from: iamback on March 16, 2015, 08:28:46 AM ...There are banksters in every nation on earth. For now, they just happen to be concentrated in New York (and lingering in London) for the moment, because that is where the seat of financial (and military) power is held because the USA (and formerly England) holds the world's reserve currency [i.e. they are the current financial capitals of the world].

[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985481.msg10794406#msg10794406

Perhaps this ingress of capital will be the final impetus for the London property bubble to ultimately top. I've been trying to think of what could cause this outside of young families finally being completely priced out. The UK government seems committed to propping up the property market (understandably so) too.

Perhaps your right, Amsterdam is in a huge dept because of the Noord-Zuid lijn, but my guess would still be within 10 years.

The intertwined finance dominoes will fall...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/18/austria-to-default-of-debt-of-10-2-billion-euros/

You forgot to mention coffeshops   ;)

I don't smoke.  :P

Yep. This is pretty crazy stuff- commented on a thread about this. The protest seems largely manufactured by hard lefties though. I wouldn't consider it much of a reflection of the general populace.

bigtimespaghetti, remember I warned you not to go into the London property market and said it would collapse into October 2015 (before I advised you to take the career change leap to Netherlands which appears to be working out great for you ... I see your new ebook on minting).

The London Property Market is Crashing (http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34743)

Note I was posting as "iamback" upthread. I am the former user AnonyMint.

hey TPTB! I have been following your many username iterations :) I've been too busy lately to follow your latest postings though I'm afraid, I'm glad to see that you're still active.

Thanks for the link, UK has been showing all the signs of another bubble, but I haven't been following it too closely.

Yes, things are lovely here in Amsterdam. The job was probably exactly the thing for me, not to mention the adventure and challenge of living in a different country. The book has been a side project for the last year, I'm glad to have it finished!

Amsterdam is one of the nicest cities I've been to, and would love to go back there, even to live for a year or two.

I'd do a quick financial scenario analysis between renting and buying and keep an eye on what's available for sale on the market.

I think I'm in a little bit of a middle class bubble here compared to the rest of the Netherlands, despite the crime being highest here compared to the rest of the country I haven't had much trouble, but I am lucky enough to live in the centre right now.

what an interesting thread, I also looking at amsterdam and also possibly thinking long term house but haven't started looking at any details yet. I am still a brit in the UK lol

glad you like it beak. As you have read there are a lot of factors to consider in the Netherlands- perhaps more than in the UK in terms of regulation and also in regards to any tenants you may rent a property out to. The standard BTL mortgages are also pretty tight in the terms (I think 40% deposit is required for any rental mortgage).

The difference in price is ridiculous when compared to the UK, but salaries are lower here so that is reflected even in the centre- there is a pretty exponential curve on the canal rings where all the million euro luxury apartments are though, but if you're an expat I think that most earn above average and it seems most people live comfortably here, at least in Amsterdam.

Useful interactive house price chart:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices (http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices)

I am glad you are considering much more economical and social reasons as also a scale to measure the pros and cons and not just the finance and cost of living there is, this is how a mature long term investment decision is made, I'm proud of ya. The cons are considerably alright and you can get through that easy peasy. The pros are strong and if I was in the scenario as yours, I wouldn't mind taking that decision ;)

My gosh look at India, Brazil, and Hong Kong; huge bubbles in developing markets going to crash hard in coming years.

Read the blog post:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34811


http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/1047x617xrealestate-cycle.jpg.pagespeed.ic.9eCCvFaKwB.jpg

Amsterdam is a fine city, and it is also popular for its economy. Flow Traders, a Dutch high-frequency trading firm, will list on the Amsterdam stock exchange today at 32 euros ($35.28) per share, valuing the company at around 1.5 billion euros. There are slightly more than 16 million shares involved, which means they invested 35 % of their business in it. Amsterdam is my dream city to live in, man.

I did read that. It's a worrying forecast indeed.


Yep, I try to appreciate it everyday- it is stunning in the summer.

I didn't read through this whole thread, so I apologize if this was already asked.  But one thing I realized after buying my house is that it pays to be able to do work yourself.  Such as, doing minor electrical work (installing light fixtures, etc), doing minor plumbing (installing new kitchen faucet, new toilet, etc), carpentry work if needed (new steps, etc).

I realized quickly that hiring someone to do all these things make home ownership much more costly.  So if you are handy and can teach yourself these skills, you will be much better off as a homeowner.  If you cant, then I wish you luck because hiring an electrician, carpenter, plumber, etc can be very costly.

Real estate is on an all time low period. So it doesn't really matter where you put your money to. Since , Berlin is the new hotspot of investors ,go for it. Also you should compare the construction rates , and mobility from your property. Real estate will take up some time to grow , but gradually it will climb up. Amsterdam also has a few rules , which were liberalized recently.

I agree, I think real estate prices are low, probably cant go too much lower.  Also interest rates are at historic lows.  A house is a long term investment, for me it was a no brainer.  Good luck with your house hunt.

Is crime an issue there?  I was only there for a week a couple years back, but every interaction I had with anyone was pleasant.

So are you currently renting the place that you're in?

Another option would be to entertain the thought of buying a place with income producing potential.  I'm currently searching for this type of property in Toronto.

I'm sorry to tell you guys that you are so wrong that it is going to hurt you very much.

Again you better not ignore Armstrong. His models have never been incorrect.

Also your logic on interest rates is inverted. Low interest rates means more demand for houses thus higher prices. Interest rates will start rising after October 2015 (the global sovereign debt BIG BANG) which will drive demand for real estate down. Also property taxes will rise because governments are bankrupt and this will drive real estate into the abyss.

Those of you who buy real estate are going to be paupers by 2033 when real estate finally bottoms in price.

Liquidate all real estate immediately and before the BIG BANG contagion kicks off in October.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRZTyaJvOk4

amazingly enough, just last month Martin Armstrong gave an interview where he talks about his sister recently BUYING a house. (Around the 1:09 mark)

I'm not sure why he would allow her to buy a house if real estate is such a bad investment.

Anyway, he does seem to speak a lot of truth and has a good grasp on why the monetary policies of the world are all FAILING.

Thanks MF.


Crime isn't really an issue, no. Crime is highest in Amsterdam in all the netherlands. If you are wise you will not put yourself in harms way. Junkies and criminals are not a major worry, I do not go out late or wander the city in the early hours so I almost never encounter them. There are plenty of gross men out and about of all nationalities, which accost any women. It's pathetic behaviour and gives extremist feminists more ammunition, from the way I've seen some disgusting assholes act I almost don't blame them.

When I first got to Amsterdam, it was around midnight and I didn't really know what it would be like.  Anyways I went for what I thought would be a short walk around the area by myself, which turned into a long walk because I got lost lol.  I found it to be very safe, and most nights we walked around for hours.

As long as the more negative interactions are exceptions, you can find that even in the best of cities.  The canal houses we saw were absolutely beautiful.  Do you know the price range for the ones on the canal, and maybe on smaller streets?  I saw a show that had some Americans moving to Amsterdam in houses ranging from 600k a little further out to 2.2MM on the canal.

When did you come? The city has cleaned up considerably in the last 5 years. It is very easy to get lost in the centre if you are not familiar with it, the islands and canals all end up looking the same! I'm talking about being outside of the centre specifically, but even that is relatively safe when compared, for example with New York or London.

The most expensive canal ring is Herengracht (pronounced Heragrach, if my dutch serves me). I linked a fun study earlier in the thread about the prices on there. If you want a look, check out www.funda.nl (http://www.funda.nl)- it has an english option and see prices for yourself. You can find studios on the outer canal rings for as little as 120k eur- granted they will be rabbit hutches, but probably not a bad long term investment. I recently saw a 135k 20m square studio on the canal ring after Herengracht- extremely nice finish (wasn't even freehold, was on a municipal lease), went in less than a week. I actually live in a canal house (again I consider myself extremely lucky), it's pretty cool! Apart from the general noise at night it's a beautiful view when it's not raining- actually sometimes even when it is too :)

But yeah 2 million euros isn't even the lowest end of what large apartments in the more beautiful parts of the centre can cost. There are some truly incredible properties available. Another anecdote- a corner house on Herengracht facing the Amstel river was renovated, and all of the flats went in less than a week. Some property developers are making out like bandits right now.

I was there in the spring of 2011, after visiting France, Spain and Portugal.  We stayed very close to Prinsengracht...spelling might be wrong, but you'll probably know what I'm talking about.  Yeah when I first got there, it was already dark and you're right in that many of the street corners looked very similar.  It was a very mind opening trip...and I look forward to another Eurotrip including Amsterdam again.

Thanks for the link...I checked out a few properties but will need to spend some more time on the site to see what is available at different price ranges, but the properties that I saw look nice for the price.

Glad to be of help, send me a message if you're ever in Amsterdam :)

Hope, so far you have come to an conclusion with more than hundreds of comments as suggestions and solutions for your Query regards to buying a house in Amsterdam. Wish you Good Luck in your purchase deal, stay sweet and happy at Home :)

That's a practice every man should do, it is a major skill for men to acquire, girls love a man who could fix things ;) I have been fixing things around my house since 13 cuz living with siblings, everything was always broken so I had to fix it first to use it. I am a self taught electrician, plumber and carpenter. Youtube is also a helpful aid, so get a wifi and learn from internet and save bills :D

What about demographics? If you're taking a loan to buy real estate, you have to take a long view on ROI. For example, where I live the population is aging - 20 years from now the baby boomers will have mostly passed away, and the younger generations are smaller. Roughly speaking, the actuarial tables show that  by then, there will be about 500,000 people aged 18 or more less than now - in a country of 5,5 million. And the baby boomers own real estate which will be coming to market when they no longer need a place to live. This doesn't account for immigration, to be fair.

How's the age structure in NL? Would a big city like Amsterdam continue to grow even if other areas did not?

Amsterdam is really good because of an interesting city center, extensive cultural and culinary offerings, and the steady supply of work opportunities really makes it a very desirable and a very popular country to live in. And also regarding crime rate there, Amsterdam ranked fourth in a list of  highest per capita number of murders and other unnatural deaths :P

In a few years everything in Europe will be dropping below at least 50% of its current price, including salaries.

Wait.

I'm as conflicted as ever. But I hope this thread can serve as a good reference for anyone else considering this.

There is nothing to be conflicted about. Europe will collapse into the abyss over the next few years.

These guys will lose their shirts.

Perhaps relevant TPTB? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11734133/The-200-home-tower-block-that-sold-out-in-under-five-hours.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11734133/The-200-home-tower-block-that-sold-out-in-under-five-hours.html)

Will do :)  I hope to go back sooner than later.

Regarding the comment about real estate and salaries in Europe taking a 50% cut over the next few years, each country and city will be affected differently.

USA and Canada usually has a very similar monetary policy (Canada follows the Fed) and when we had the financial crisis of 2008 and a housing collapse in the states, places like Toronto continued to appreciate because demand remained high.  Each city has something different to offer and are usually hit differently by a crisis.

Exclusive zones can be compared to buying rare coins or art, in that the market is the wealthy who always have money or in this case are also fleeing economic distress and totalitarianism in other places. This appears to me to be more reflective of an excess in the supply of concentrated monetary wealth world-wide and insufficient productive investment opportunities. This is up held up by a $200+ trillion global debt and $quadrillion of global financial derivative leverage.

The recent proposal (or law?) to raise taxes on resident foreigners who try to pretend they are not residents by some loopholes does not affect apparently the buyers who purchased above, but it does apparently affect a large swath of the upper end of investment real estate in the UK and this will be reflected broadly but not in some acute rarities such as Towers in the prime districts.


Without organized governance (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11863304#msg11863304) and society, who will keep the pumps (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands) working to prevent the Netherlands from being retaken by the ocean?

Don't say it is impossible. Chaos is non-linear.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2c/De_dijk_tussen_Kesteren_en_Opheusden_tijdens_extreem_hoogwater_van_de_Neder_Rijn_344320s.jpg

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2567384/Huge-pumps-Holland-brought-end-misery-flood-hit-Somerset-Levels.html

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/02/25/article-2567384-1B94126000000578-466_964x636.jpg

This is true, except two issues remain:

1. Humans are really bad at predicting (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY) how chaos unfolds, i.e. which areas and which timing.

2. You are referring to differently timed bubbles developing and peaking; whereas, we are facing a global contagion that will take down all the profligate western nations in a series of dominoes cascade beginning October 2015 and finally taking down the last nation standing (the USA) in late 2017. From 2018 forward we go over the cliff in the West, but Asia will be bottoming around 2020, while the West will continue down and down for the foreseeable decades. From 2033 forward, there will be a new world order (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985481.0), with the financial capital of the world shifted from the West to Asia. Apparently from 2030 forward, the world will also be hit with a Little Ice Age (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11860395#msg11860395), which will exacerbate crisis.

Right.  I was just giving an example of one of the bad predictions; not making a prediction myself.  Some cities turned into ghost towns and others continued unscathed during that time.  In Europe, every city will not be impacted similarly because they have different wealth/debt, jobs to offer, demand to live there, etc.

What are the catalysts for your collapse estimates?  Also, if the USA maintains global reserve currency status, and is able to print with no limits, while every country happily accepts USD (and the currency's strength is growing) then how will the collapse happen this time?  I think the US has terrible fundamentals, but as long as they can give freshly printed fiat to people and received a product, they're on a different playing field.

The catalysts. Some years ago I independently happenstanced (http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Housing%20Recovery%20Illusion.html) on (discovered) Martin Armstrong's 78.9 (79) year cycle of real estate (which I also correlated to technological unemployment (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0) cycles). So when I later discovered Armstrong's cycle models and that he had back tested them to the Athenian empire and before (even as far back as Mesopotamia), I'm keen to accept that such a cycle does exist. Armstrong is the largest hedge fund manager in history, formerly managing $3 trillion in Japanese sovereign funds before he got unintentionally entangled in the USA bankster's involved in the LTCM and Russian bonds scam via Republic bank which involved some of the funds he was managing. It is with this wealth that he compiled the massive $billion (in today's money) historical economics and natural phenomenon database that enable his supercomputer system to correlate and find these patterns and repeating cycles.

It is with this system that he has been accurately predicting everything since the 1980s without fail. In fact, I have predicted the past 4 major moves in the Bitcoin price employing his model, including my recent prediction in May that BTC would rise to $315 in June and July, then crash back down to below $150 for the Octoberish bottom.

So the model for what you are concerned with has to do with we are in a cycle of shifting from Public (i.e. sovereign and municipal bonds) to Private (e.g. gold, Bitcoin, and until 2017 USA assets including stocks) assets. There are numerous others cycles converging at this time which is what will make this coming contagion so horrific. These include the Cycle of War (both intra- and international), Pandemic Cycle, and even the Little Ice Age cycle of sunspot minimums.

What is happening now is the peripheral (to the global reserve) markets are nearing the Minsky moment dominoes collapse coming October. This is evident with rising bond spreads in Europe and the increasing volatility in for example China. And you find similar examples in Venezuela, Argentina, etc..

The distinction from 2008 will be that instead of the USA flooding the world with dollars via QE-to-the-moon (forcing China at al to flood Yuan, Euro, etc to keep US$ from becoming too strong and destroying their exports), this peripheral capital will be stampeding back into the USA as the last standing safe haven and the US Fed will be raising rates because it will see a bubble from its perspective despite the contraction in the rest of the globe's economies. The US$ will become too strong, because the peripheral economies are all effectively short the dollar (via massive loans denominated in US$ because ZIRP forced dollar investors to look abroad for yield which is what caused these bubbles abroad which are now collapsing) and will become even more so as their dollar reserves run back to the USA.

Thus going into 2017, the US$ will become so strong that it will choke off the USA economy (and also the stampede of capital into the USA will have peaked), the last economy still standing by that time. As the USA falls into the abyss in 2018, the entire world will descend into a horrific economic collapse.

The USA would try to print more QE after it heads down into the abyss in 2018, but this will be too late for the rest of the nations which will have already imploded and the USA's domestic politics are going more radicalized third party (especially after Clinton wins the 2016 POTUS election), thus this will prevent another massive TARP bailout for banks, so the banksters will instead in cahoots with the government go for bail-ins which will be massively deflationary.

This is it folks. Cash is king. Get out while you still can. This may be my last warning.

Just kind of interested in the purchase prices
If you bought the house in February versus July did the price change because of seasonal variances as it could save more money to buy the flat in the off season and then have a bit more of a buffer for cyclical periods.
(Well average price since most houses would not be on the market for that long)  
Renting the house as a property or put it on Airbnb as mentioned is good at generating income on the property the other factor would be determining the prime lending rate and then to try and enter when the interest seems low with a long lock in for amortization.

This was essentially my attitude to begin with- low interest rate locked with generally high private rents in Ams- you can lock rates for up to 30 years in Holland. Prices have raised slightly since I started looking- probably due to seasonal variance (more on the market) and investors sinking money into rental.

And when prices fall (rents fall) and or property taxes increase (for the EU to handle all the member nation debts which must be consolidated else the EU breaks apart), then you are a debt slave for 30 years. Possibly even debtors prisons (which are coming back, mark my word).

I appreciate the in depth response.  So what I'm gathering is that there is a cyclical historical pattern that you have observed, and are predicting future movements based on the repeating pattern?

Do you think there is going to be an event or paradigm shift that is going to initiate the next cycle/pattern?  Or has an event already happened that you have flagged?

The oil price is now going to collapse, and the obvious logical corollary of that is the dollar is going to go very high indeed. The oil price down 50%, the dollar up over 10%. The dollar going up 10% may not happen immediately, if you’re thinking in pounds and so on but it’s absolutely critical because you’ve got $6trn or $7trn of debt in the emerging economies all tied to the dollar. LOL, before 2009 I never had heard about the word 'trillion' :P

In France and Italy, some scientists then began using billion to mean 10 square 9, trillion to mean 10 square 12, etc. This usage became more common with time, it was first used in 1600 bro. Before people used to refer it as millions million. History is crazy but a fun thing to study, the world needs to learn from its mistakes :)

Unfortunately most people can't remember much other than the last snapchat they got...

Seriously I was sitting at a baseball game and there were a bunch of 20-somethings sitting in front of me.  The entire game they sat there texting, facebooking, snapchatting, etc.  THE WHOLE 9 innings!  Dont expect them to learn from history, let alone look up from their phones...

Collapse of real estate ahead, and with it a collapse of savings and potentially into a mad max world:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35580