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C'mon, you all knew it was coming.
So we got over 30k on July 21 about 2 Am EST it is now July 30th 9 AM So you need a tank job today or early sat for this to still be working. I count 17 hours and this will become a worthless thread that math and science has proven it to be wrong. but to be fair you have 17 hours for a crash to keep it true. up date tick tock 5 hours and this thread is dead. But wait! There's more!So you were wrong about this and are moving the goalposts. I suppose you have a $40k thread queued up for when that one fails? |
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So basically one has to bet that funds will be obtained from this liquidation process. I am pessimistic about this process as I also have 1.1 BTC locked up (since site went into liquidation in May (?) 2019), and have heard nothing since I registered my account in the claims portal back in Dec 2020. I will be pleasantly surprised if I ever get this money back, but am not going to place another bet down that people will get their money back (which is what a lender would be doing here).
Also, while I appreciate the fact that you are offering a realistic interest rate, it seems that it could be beaten by using margin funding platforms (Bitfinex/Poloniex) or other lending platforms that entail much less risk than this.
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Now this is till unconfirmed therefore we cannot just take this news and move forth. At the same time the article uses *CLAIMED* therefore the fact that he did have 1 million bitcoins is not something that is proven. I do think that even if he have died and no one knows where his bitcoins is, it would be more like *long term holding* until his family finds them and decides to sell.
First of all, I agree. There is no evidence for any of this and even if 1 million worth ob BTC was to be lost it would still not account much for the market moves as it is still BTC out in circulation, maybe no longer accessible. The scarcity of BTC does not change. The only difference is that it might be lost and if it is it won't affect the market. So the news is completely market irrelevant. I think you're misunderstanding. It's not 1 million worth of Bitcoin that is being discussed here, but 1 million Bitcoins. So it is not market irrelevant at all, it's a massive amount of coins that could be taken out of circulation. Mircea was an interesting character to me and I have followed him through the years. He ran a securities exchange that cost 50 BTC to register and trade on, and at no point did that amount ever get reduced (even after Bitcoin increasing 1000x in value from when that rule was established). He ran a prediction market called BitBet.us before selling it off, and I actually used it before it was shut down completely. There were some huge bets on that site, even for what BTC was worth at that time, notably one that had 5.5k BTC volume. http://qntra.net/2015/03/largest-bitcoin-bet-resolved/Mircea had his own blog here where he posted financial statements of the securities that traded on his exchange as well as philosophical musings/rants, and as you can see through the history he posted very frequently (basically every day). Last post was on June 23rd. Go through that blog and you'll see that if he is dead, he's probably not the kind of person that would let anyone access to his coins in the case of his death.  He might not have had a million BTC, but it wouldn't surprise me too much if he did. He certainly was a whale and I've always believed him to be in the 6 digits. |
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For me, there's nothing better than Poker if we're talking about skills games, but there are other options. There's also blackjack and, I'm quite surprised no one mentioned Spades, it also includes a lot of strategic thinking, no less than Poker, perhaps. And, of course, there's Yahtzee. While it includes dice, which brings an element of luck to the game - a strategy should also be applied and you need to make a lot of decisions, evaluate your risks, which is why to play this game it's better to understand probabilities first.
I love Yahtzee but a computer can show you what all the best decisions are so it's not a game you could securely play for money. The OP is looking for PVP games that aren't solved by computers and can be +EV for players. Not easy criteria to fulfill. I think Rock Paper Scissors is the purest and best PVP game but it's hard to call it a skill game since you can just let an RNG decide the throws to neutralize any advantage that might exist between the two players. |
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Are there any bitcoin sites still taking wagers on this?
Fairlay.com are still accepting US presidential election-related bets (buying and selling on both sides). From fairlay, I only see the option to bet on Trump, not Biden. https://fairlay.com/markets/news/This is a joke, probably it's a sucker bet because Trump had no chance of changing the votes, therefore he will loss pending the formal announcement of the election, I doubt there are still bettors would would take Trump despite the news all over that Biden is 99% likely to win the election. It's a prediction market and you can bet 'on' Trump or 'against' Trump (on Biden). Betting 'against' currently pays 1.072 and there's .1 BTC you can take at 1.069 odds. These are pretty good odds that are significantly higher than Betfair, but I guess a lot of people are confused as to how prediction markets work. |
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I the meantime, most bookies have settled the bets with Biden as the winner. When do you think it will be finally settled on all betting platforms?
Betfair said they are anticipating to resolve on Dec. 14 after the electors cast their votes (and I assume a few other bookies will follow this example), but some will run all the way until January 6th when the electoral vote results are announced. |
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Pretty funny that bookies think it's more likely that Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election than Joe Biden winning a second term. Just goes to show the kind of expectation people have for his term!  |
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Guys, although I said earlier that Trump's chances were not zero, I would rather discourage you from offering those bets with 1.02 and 1.05 odds. The thing is that if Trump wins, Betfair and PredictIt pay out from the funds collected from Biden bettors, losing nothing themselves and even earning something with the house edge, while you are risking to lose your own money.
Yes, it's always profitable to be the house, but these are exchanges in which case the layers/backers are risking their money. Same situation here. I'm laying Biden at 1.05 (Even though the Betfair bid dropped down to 1.04, and that's where it's currently at). The only tears I'll be experiencing is if Trump somehow wins, so I have my personal reasons for laying. Now I understand and support you in your decision. It is a known strategy called "betting against your favorite team". If Trump wins, at least you'll have some consolation in winning 20x of your bet.  Pretty much! Btw, malevolent mentioned Fairlay on the previous page and I brought .2 BTC over to the site, so any one is free to take it. It's at 1.04 odds so 1 BTC wins .04 BTC, you just gotta select 'against' Trump. |
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Guys, although I said earlier that Trump's chances were not zero, I would rather discourage you from offering those bets with 1.02 and 1.05 odds. The thing is that if Trump wins, Betfair and PredictIt pay out from the funds collected from Biden bettors, losing nothing themselves and even earning something with the house edge, while you are risking to lose your own money.
Yes, it's always profitable to be the house, but these are exchanges in which case the layers/backers are risking their money. Same situation here. I'm laying Biden at 1.05 (Even though the Betfair bid dropped down to 1.04, and that's where it's currently at). The only tears I'll be experiencing is if Trump somehow wins, so I have my personal reasons for laying. |
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I'll offer Betfair's odds of 1.05.
We will use an escrow, up to .15 BTC of mine up for grabs (which means you can bet up to 3 BTC)!
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I don't know why you wouldn't just do this yourself, but I can do it as long as the transaction is properly escrowed. I would want 5.05 BTC worth of ETH and you would also have to pay the escrow fee.
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Are there any actual companies or reputable sources that I can get a BTC loan from? I might just end up liquidating my CND instead.
That's probably a far better course of action. It only really makes sense to put up alts as collateral if you have a strong belief that the price will rise far higher than the amount of interest you are obligated to pay on a loan. If there is a doubt on where the price is headed, you are far better off taking your chances and selling rather than locking in a certain loss on the interest payments. That way you can buy back lower when you reacquire your BTC and you don't have to pay anyone any interest. From what I've seen this year, people usually get wrecked by putting up alts as collateral. They are more than likely to slide downwards than increase. And if they slide down too much you get margin called, and liquidated if you can't top up your collateral to a sufficient level. I only need the funds for like a day or 2. And I really would rather not liquidate my CND, specially because it's a low supply coin and a market move could take the price up 5-10% no problem. This already happened to me last week when I bet. I ended up getting a push on my bet and the BSV that I liquidated for BTC went up 8% the next day when I got my BTC back from the betting site. Oh ok. Didn't realize it was such a short term loan. Does the collateral you are holding exceed the amount you are asking for? If so, I can help you out. We would use a trusted escrow of course. Yes, I have 1M CND tokens. Who would be the escrow? This sounds very scary lol There are a list of trusted escrows here. As a newbie I can understand how you would be scared to trust anyone on a site that you just started using, but most these guys have been around for years and have helped facilitate many deals in a secure and neutral manner. You are looking for about 1.5 BTC, I suppose. As things stand I have about .215 BTC and 53 BAB available because most of my funds are locked up with margin funding. However, you said you needed this for the weekend so I will most likely have more funds freed up before then. |
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Are there any actual companies or reputable sources that I can get a BTC loan from? I might just end up liquidating my CND instead.
That's probably a far better course of action. It only really makes sense to put up alts as collateral if you have a strong belief that the price will rise far higher than the amount of interest you are obligated to pay on a loan. If there is a doubt on where the price is headed, you are far better off taking your chances and selling rather than locking in a certain loss on the interest payments. That way you can buy back lower when you reacquire your BTC and you don't have to pay anyone any interest. From what I've seen this year, people usually get wrecked by putting up alts as collateral. They are more than likely to slide downwards than increase. And if they slide down too much you get margin called, and liquidated if you can't top up your collateral to a sufficient level. I only need the funds for like a day or 2. And I really would rather not liquidate my CND, specially because it's a low supply coin and a market move could take the price up 5-10% no problem. This already happened to me last week when I bet. I ended up getting a push on my bet and the BSV that I liquidated for BTC went up 8% the next day when I got my BTC back from the betting site. Oh ok. Didn't realize it was such a short term loan. Does the collateral you are holding exceed the amount you are asking for? If so, I can help you out. We would use a trusted escrow of course. |
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Are there any actual companies or reputable sources that I can get a BTC loan from? I might just end up liquidating my CND instead.
That's probably a far better course of action. It only really makes sense to put up alts as collateral if you have a strong belief that the price will rise far higher than the amount of interest you are obligated to pay on a loan. If there is a doubt on where the price is headed, you are far better off taking your chances and selling rather than locking in a certain loss on the interest. That way you can buy back lower when you reacquire your BTC and you don't have to pay anyone any interest. From what I've seen this year, people usually get wrecked by putting up alts as collateral. They are more than likely to slide downwards than increase. And if they slide down too much you get margin called, and liquidated if you can't top up your collateral to a sufficient level. |
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I could... would you be comfortable sending first? (You can see that my address staked here has .745 BTC in it) I won't send first to you based on your low volume but I'll gadly use escrow. That's fine but I don't want to pay an escrow fee, so you would have to cover that as well. Works for me. You are good with preev + 5% ? Yup. Praine and I worked out a deal. He has sent me the full 0.25 first...I have received and awaiting one network confirmation and will then send the PayPal One confirmation and PayPal has been sent. Thanks Confirmed, thanks. |
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I could... would you be comfortable sending first? (You can see that my address staked here has .745 BTC in it) I won't send first to you based on your low volume but I'll gadly use escrow. That's fine but I don't want to pay an escrow fee, so you would have to cover that as well. Works for me. You are good with preev + 5% ? Yup. |
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I could... would you be comfortable sending first? (You can see that my address staked here has .745 BTC in it) I won't send first to you based on your low volume but I'll gadly use escrow. That's fine but I don't want to pay an escrow fee, so you would have to cover that as well. |
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I could... would you be comfortable sending first? (You can see that my address staked here has .745 BTC in it) |
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