About monopoly concerns at least they are right.
Many would feel uncomfortable with AM being "KING", just retaining leadership would be enough. Strong competition is necessary, so I hope competitors deliver mass-production of second-generation chips late this year (by second-generation I mean 65nm and less, excluding BFL).
I would even prefer AM losing leadership, over their total domination of Bitcoin ASIC market. Monopoly would make Bitcoin itself endangered.
By saying he is king, I just meant he will retain leadership and we can be confident in that as we see this unfold in the next ~6 months. Confident enough to value a share at 10+ BTC. However, even if there is a monopoly (as in, AM is the miner at 50% network share and everyone else is an AM consumer), it won't stop the majority from riding that boat, heh. |
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Latest report posted on Picostocks:
Deployment schedule
We are having problems finding contractors able to produce and assemble PCBs for us. The best time we are getting for the completion of the process is 2013-07-25. We will try to get faster production schedule but current worse case scenario is deployment of the mine by the end of July.
Created on 2013-06-30 18:04:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-30 18:07:58 by koji;
Worst case scenarios in Bitcoin world come true all the time. I won't be surprised. |
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Well, you are free to buy stocks in ASICMiner if you do think they'll continue to do as well as they have. So it's fair enough in that sense.
I am more worried that they will kill the price of BTC. When mining is distributed, more of the miners keep the BTC or maybe spend it (I am a seller so I do have bias). I do not see ASICminer spending BTC of things in the community, it could happen but it is not what they are set up to do. Basically ASICminer is a drain on the community. This does not mean they are doing anything wrong or should be stopped, it is just in most small miners interest not to support them. You buy a USB stick from them, you allow them to put up an equal (or greater) amount of hash power to balance out their share of the network. Certainly they can put up a lot more hash power with $100 then they are selling for $100. Same goes with blade sales. Also so far, most buyers from ASICminer simply paid too much for the product. THIS! What are you talking about? People spending bitcoins is irrelevant of whether AM or AM products do the mining. That will come from advancements and mainstreaming over time. People will need to purchase the coins. If miners are holding, then the price goes up as demand increases. |
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This is the strangest thread I have read so far in bitcointalk.
Agree. Stupid is a more appropriate word however. |
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Sorry guys i'm out, this is way to risky. Bitfunder and bitcoin investment in general is unregulated and extremely risky. Be careful and stay safe.
(Impossible to verify if profit margins are real)
LMAO, that was quick. You're right, but I figured you would have realized that before pushing the button. Bitfunder is my biggest blocker ATM. |
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I posted this already, but I think 30% is the point where things change for AM. Above 30% APR, buy and hold. Below 30%, look to sell.
I think the number of investors comfortable under 30% is higher than those willing to sell at 30%. We'll see high teens before this stabilizes. Just my 2c We gotta wait until like November for people with hope in other ASICs to come to the sad realization (for them) that FRIEDCAT IS KING! Then in January, it'll be to the moon (high teens). |
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Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options: ( I am BUYING put options: you write them!) Strike: 2.7 BTC Expiration: 90 days Premium: 0.2 BTC OR Strike: 3.0 BTC Expiration: 90 days Premium: 0.25 BTC Cheers, Vycid Is this no longer valid? Update:
I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.
3 BTC limit.
 Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT  Shouldn't make you sad. Protecting yourself on the way up. You're safe, we're not. That's why you keep buying them. Right, but if I'm buying puts closer to 3.0 BTC (I've actually been buying the whole way up: 2.2, 2.5, now 2.7 and 3.0) then my 1.8 BTC puts are worthless. Not worthless if AM goes to 0.1 BTC. It's all about hindsight. |
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Mmmh.
Dividend/month ~= .00000062
Ask = 0.00011370
-->
ROI = 183 months.
I think I'll pass.
ROI, you are assuming that btcquick profits are not going to go up in 183 months as i have shown, profits have been accelerating every month. This Company has only been on the stock exchange for a very short period. I won't be surprised to see profits continue to rise exponentially as has been done in the past. Either way or stocks are a gamble and risk/reward must we weighed. Yeah, it's not a bad gamble, but it's often out of stock for days on end, so it's going to hit a wall sooner rather than later. He really needs to get selling and on the fly purchases (with fee) working. Single site owner and programmer, development is moving slow. |
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It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.
+1 +2 |
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Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options: ( I am BUYING put options: you write them!) Strike: 2.7 BTC Expiration: 90 days Premium: 0.2 BTC OR Strike: 3.0 BTC Expiration: 90 days Premium: 0.25 BTC Cheers, Vycid Is this no longer valid? Update:
I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.
3 BTC limit.
Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT Shouldn't make you sad. Protecting yourself on the way up. You're safe, we're not. That's why you keep buying them. |
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I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.
that depends a lot on the dividends. If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably. Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer. At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks. You should consider cashing out a bit of your investment as you went full retard buying shares. Don't bet the farm on AM. Results from the past are no prediction for the future.  |
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ASICM can probably get away with 15% yielding dividends (which is considered low for BTC investments) because they have a solid history, are absolutely huge in terms of market cap, and have provided stable dividends.
In other words, people are happy to opt for smaller dividend on a much lower risk company.
I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term. |
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1 more share before hitting $4 on BTC-TC. Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).
Average of last 5 is higher than 0.019 |
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Legit asian dude. Saved my bacon with a quick BTC sell ($845), cash in hand.  |
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I keep hearing "I showed this site to my friend who knows about investments and he tells me it's a scam because the commission of 1% is too low". I'm sick of defending myself, so am increasing the commission rate to 5% to hopefully reduce the number of times I need to have this argument.  The rate goes up after the commission run in 8 days' time. So the "dodge" of divesting just before the increase to get charged at the old rate won't be necessary. All good. Noobs pull out investment only makes it better and stronger for the ones that stay in. |
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It's either rising too fast and will crash a bit, or it'll go to 5.0, or both depending on this wednesday's dividends, which are projected to be epic. Wish I had more in Bitcoin even though it's crashing, AM is making up for it and if BTC takes off.... well shit  So this week we have a pretty rockin hashrate, tons of USB sales, and next week we should have blades right? |
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A company with a valuation of 100 million dollars is by no means a throw-out  Nice tracking number  That tracking number is broken and hasn't moved in weeks by the way (since BTC started crashing). It was at 150 mil last dividend. It's still hovering around 130 mil at the moment. 3.4 * 400000 * 96 = $130,000,000 |
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Would you all PLEASE STOP FEEDING THE FUCKING TROLL?
This thread has gone to shit again due to you replying to him. Just ignore him and keep on speculating on real stuff.
For fuck's sake that's one of the oldest Internet techniques to fuck up a discussion, and you are all falling to it!
Push that fucking ignore button and go on!
I'm not trolling, so disregard this person who clearly does not know what trolling is. I'm providing my opinion of the future of AM - that both mining income and hardware sales income will decrease once there is competition on the shelves and that AM is overpriced. Apparently, some people thing think replying to peoples comments with maths and facts is trolling simply because they hold a different opinion. Ask yourself why these people are calling me a troll when all I'm doing is providing facts based on the maths and looking at the problems which AM has to tackle in the near future. The answer is obvious. These people don't want you making informed decisions. You've informed everyone. People can now make an informed decision. No need to continue guys. |
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ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.
Agree with everything else you said but I wouldn't be so sure AM's chips will be *quite* as good as Bitfury's. His is pretty exceptional, but who knows if it will ship, when it will ship, how many he can get out and at what pace. AM is consistently good at all of the above, but the chip could be a fair bit less efficient and still a much better idea to support AM. |
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another troll to ignore!
Man, I am collecting trolls on here. I need a tally somewhere...
 Well said. Some people here think that anyone not participating in their circle-jerk and trying to inflate the share price is trolling. When you show them the maths to prove just how inflated the prices are, they start talking about buying in at the IPO for 0.1 BTC, like that's in the slightest bit relevant for someone looking to buy shares now. The fact is that even if AM had a hash rate of 250 Th/s, with 400,000 shares at 3.5 BTC each, that works out to be just 178.57 Mh/s per BTC. In order for AM's mining operation to provide similar value to a 5 GH/s BFL, it needs a hash rate of around 2,500 Th/s at a share price of 3.5 BTC. Then they go on about hardware sales and delude themselves into believing that people will continue to pay insane prices for the worst ASIC hardware on the market and that hardware sales are going to increase as will dividends. They probably know they're full of shit and they're just trying to pump before they dump. Why do people keep comparing AM hardware to BFL hardware? BFL hasn't shipped 90%+ of their outstanding orders and anyone ordering today won't get a product for months, possibly not even until 2014. I tell you what, I'll sell you Unicorn-PT shares that mine at 1TH/s per BTC - how many would you like? Maybe AM is overpriced and maybe it's not, however, this has zero to do with BFL and everything to do with what you think AM can execute in the coming 6 months (not 6 days or 6 hours like some over-eager day traders). Short of calling him a derogatory name, I'd say there's always people who just don't get it, and he's one. His math and facts on this subject were laughable earlier in this thread, thus not worth acknowledging. |
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