I don't see how this is sustainable in the long run, because you are giving away value all the time How do you want to make money ? Just with the subscription plans and praying that ATE will rise in value ?

And playing those surebets with different cryptos isn't that safe as well, so if things go bad, you might even sit at a loss with your arb. Even worse when you play with crypto/fiat.

Thanks @LTU_btc. Yes, I filled the table up yesterday, but was too lazy to make a post

And I agree with your opinion about the latest entries; don't like any of them very much, but Switzerland is indeed top fav now, which amazes me. Only thing I disagree is with UK reaching the final or not - they are already in final

Here are the main favourites:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports


I think the ESC is betable just like any other sports/event, you just have to adjust your style and know your stuff (which I don't claim to do). There are some patterns and dynamics you can witness year after year. For example if Russia and Belgium had the identical, very good, entries, then Russia would finish better than Belgium, because Russia will get more "friendly" points from all those Ex-USSR countries. And this is not some fraud, but also about music culture. In the different parts of Europe/EBU, different music is popular. So someone from Belarus is more likely to enjoy the russian entry than someone from Portugal. Same goes for the Ex-Yugoslavian countries, the Scandinavian countries etc., they seem to stick together, but it's more about culture. So a good song from a country with lots of "friends" and diaspora is very likely to contest for the win.

The bigger countries like Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy generally have a bit harder time at ESC, because people like underdogs. They rather give their vote to some smaller country, that is not that often in the spotlight and I think it's fine.

It's not all about the peoples opinion, because there were juries introduced some years ago to make the competition a bit fairer. Now the juries are a bit biased as well, because it's just normal that the croatian jury will like some folk-ish song from Serbia better than some pop song from Iceland - the cultural thing again.

Then of course you always have countries exchanging points for various reasons, but that is no secret anymore. Cyprus/Greece, Romania/Spain, Finland/Hungary etc.

And last but not least, if you are an expert in music, you can very well judge, which song is good/well produced/well sung. And if you are really really good, you might be even able to anticipate which song catches the masses, without being a masterpiece from a technical point of view.

All in all, you can make good money with the ESC, though I wouldn't recommend to put huge stakes. For me it's always fun to bet on it and when the votings are announced country by country it gets very exciting and the markets (at Betfair) go crazy. But I am no music expert and seem to have a weird taste, so I am not expecting to make a lot of money with this

I have edited the table again and put all the "correct" Youtube links from ESC channel in, where available.

Russia now has an official video, but still doesn't get any better for me

Belarus has also announced their entry: Galasy ZMesta - Ya Nauchu Tebya (I'll Teach You) - Belarus 🇧🇾. Pretty unusual entry for Belarus, who had more pop/techno-ish/whatever songs in the past. I really like the song this year, but Belarus is generally not doing that good in ESC unfortunately.

We will get some more songs/videos today and in the upcoming days and then the list should be complete more or less. Just Azerbaijan and Malta are a bit late^^


Source: https://eurovision.tv/calendar

The EBU and Europe are two different things, so you just have to be EBU member to be eligible to participate All those north african countries are also part of the EBU and could participate, but only Morocco did so in the past. The only exception is Australia, who are guest in ESC since 2015, since there is a big ESC community down under.

It's the same as with UEFA. Israel, Kazahkstan, Azerbaijan etc. play in UEFA qualifiers, their domestic teams in UEFA Champions/Europa League. Why ? Because the UEFA is a different organization than "Europe".


I normally don't do as well, but this is all from a betting perspective, because english songs do better in ESC in general, so higher chance of winning. English is understood by the most people overall and people are used to hear english music. If it was just about singing in the language the most people are native in (in EBU), then your song should be in german (but I wouldn't recommend that).


Thanks, added it (an audio only, since the video from your link was taken off). What a weird song

Ja, viel los ist halt nicht, weil sie noch nicht "am Markt" sind, obwohl sie den Stealth Mode offiziell verlassen haben. Ich verfolge im Moment nur deren Twitter Account und da wurden zuletzt drei neue Advisors verkündet, aber darauf sollte man nicht viel geben. Ansonsten gibt es dort nur kleinere Meldungen, dies und das, nichts wirklich handfestes.

In der BZ war ein Artikel über peaq, in dem es u.a. heisst:


Nun wurde ja auch schon letztes Jahr der Ex-IOTA-Advisor Klaus Schaaf als Neuzugang bei peaq verkündet - der jahrzehntelang bei VW war - und da könnte man natürlich spekulieren. Ansonsten beschreibt dieses Zitat aus dem Artikel die derzeitige Situation von peaq wohl am besten:


Insofern einfach abwarten und Tee trinken. Und hoffen, dass der Wendler das Ding schon schaukelt Mich beschleicht fast das Gefühl, dass es niemals ein ICO o.ä. geben wird tbh.......

We are getting closer to having all entries

Australia's song from Montaigne: Montaigne - Technicolour - Live at Mardi Gras 2021. Not a fan of this. The studio version sounds a bit better, but she will have to perform live at ESC as well. Absolutely not my kind of song Odds around 180 right now to win.

Was super curious about Hooverphonic for Belgium and am a bit disappointed: Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place - Belgium 🇧🇪 It's the typical style of Hooverphonic, but I find this kind of boring. Odds around 100.

Roxen's song for Romania: ROXEN - Amnesia - Romania 🇷🇴 It's ok I think, but nothing special in the end. Odds around 70.

Estonia will send Uku Suviste with this: Uku Suviste - The Lucky One - Estonia 🇪🇪 Odds of 320+ say it all

Moldova finally revealed their song: Natalia Gordienko - SUGAR - Moldova 🇲🇩 Moldova generally isn't super successful at ESC, but we have odds of "only" around 100 here, so this looks to be liked by quite some people. Not sure why.

The song from San Marino: Senhit - Adrenalina - San Marino 🇸🇲 This could do well imo, since these kind of songs have been doing well in the past too. Odds just 27. With a good stage performance, Top10 is possible.

The song/video for Serbia: Hurricane - LOCO LOCO - Serbia 🇷🇸 Would have been better to do it in english imo, since it's not too bad for ESC standards. Odds 250+.

Denmark will send Fyr & Flamme with a danish song: Øve os på hinanden Odds are 300+ and I think this is a bit high. Not the greatest song of all time, but I think it will "work" in ESC, even if not in english.

The Black Mamba will start for Portugal: The Black Mamba – Love is on My Side Nice song, very unique, odds are 150+, which looks a bit high. I like the voice of that singer and the pretty simple performance. Could be a bit too boring in the end.

The hosts revealed their song: Jeangu Macrooy - Birth Of A New Age - The Netherlands 🇳🇱 Winning the ESC back to back is super hard nowadays and the Netherlands will fail as well. Odds of 300+ are too high though for a song which isn't too bad.

And finally Italy: Måneskin - ZITTI E BUONI Pretty unusual entry for Italy and Finland will not be very happy this Not a fan of this song from Italy, but just by the odds they will finish Top3. I will probably oppose Italy with my betting, if the odds stay like that

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It's still missing some songs from highly anticipated participants like Russia, Sweden, Iceland, Bulgaria, but we get a better picture now already. Iceland are favourites for now, followed by France and Italy. But all still very tight and odds will change a lot for sure in the coming weeks.

Armenia withdrew from this years ESC for political reasons.

Technically they can refuse to pay you, because you violated their ToS. If a) your old account wasn't restricted/limited/banned and you bypassed that by opening a new account and b) you didn't claim some bonus offering with the new account, then I think you will get paid. Because then it's just some minor issue and you have been honest about it.
I would ask them to close one of the account afterwards then to prevent any issues for the future.

On Saturday there will be the Strade Bianche, which is a super nice race with some gravel roads. I like this race, because tactics or team strength don't play a big role, the strongest riders will be there in the end and fight it out; you don't win this race getting lucky or whatever. There are no groups arriving at the finish line together and the majority of riders DNF's.

When there is rain, these are epic battles, but the weather forecast says no rain or very slight, though there is some rain right now in the Siena area. In dry-ish conditions this race suits a lot of riders, but one-day-race-specialists are normally favoured and if you have cross experience thats even better. No wonder the big favs are MvdP, van Aert and Alaphillipe.

The profile (white=gravel roads):


Source: https://www.strade-bianche.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/interni_garibaldi-SB_2021_ME-bassa.pdf

The last 3km:


Source: https://www.strade-bianche.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/interni_garibaldi-SB_2021_ME-bassa.pdf

I placed a bet on Alaphillipe at around 5, because he is just a beast on these walls near the finish line. Last year he got a bit unlucky with mechanicals all the time and only finished 24th and 15 minutes down to van Aert. Maybe he has some more luck with his equipment this time. He has been in good form so far this season and won this race in 2019 already.
I don't see MvdP being able to challenge Ala on this wall, but you never know with this guy, he probably arrives there alone after some 150km solo Van Aert just comes from training camp and it will be his first road race of the season, so I don't expect him to be super sharp already.

dkbit98 already hinted here that this account might have changed hands.


The posts in english also differ a bit as far as I can judge, i.e. in 2017/2018 it sounded like a non-native person, but the latest posts read native (for me).

Well, there is also something called common sense, not everything has to be excluded by rules.

What I don't understand is how people like you can enjoy that money (even if it's no fortune) and generally have no problem doing this ?! I would feel super bad and couldn't enjoy that money, because a) I don't deserve that money b) it's super unfair towards the other participants who do take the time and effort to make their minimum posts every week, while they surely have better things to do as well and c) I would question myself how low I have gotten, if I need to do this.

But I give you credit for showing up here, I like that.

Na ja, die "Probleme" sind ja schon etwas größer als die 0,05 BTC Differenz.


Das sind alles Sachen wo ziemlich sicher Steuern angefallen sind und zwar bei jedem einzelnen Trade. Das muss man halt alles erstmal so weit wie möglich selber aufdröseln und dann schauen inwiefern man unter Zuhilfenahme eines Steuerberaters zu einer Einigung mit dem FA kommt.

I don't like it at all too, but thats music, peoples taste are different. It's super unique, which I generally find good, because the ESC tends to have a lot of similar songs - your typical "ESC trash". These unique songs are more likely to do really bad rather than doing really good form my experience. But it's worth a shot, since it's better to finish 25-25-25-1 than to finish 15-15-15-15 all the time. Ukraine won the ESC in 2004 performing some folk-ish song from Ruslana with Wild Dances: Ruslana - Wild Dances. Actually a very nice and catchy song, with a good on-stage performance. I don't see this with Ukraine this year.

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My personal favourite is still Finland (odds @22 now) And I am looking forward to what Belgium and Bulgaria will put on the table. I loved the song from Bulgaria/Victoria last year and while Belgium/Hooverphonic didn't catch me last year, I like their style in general.

Ireland has published their song: Lesley Roy - Maps - Ireland 🇮🇪 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021. I already liked the one for 2020 and this one I like too. Won't have any chances to win, but maybe 10-15.

Slovenias entry: Ana Soklič - Amen - Slovenia 🇸🇮 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021. What bothers me is, that the voice somehow doesn't fit to the lady you see on stage You would expect a more higher and fragile voice. Don't like it overall and the market not as well.

After weeks of only knowing the song title, we now have some music that goes along with the entry for Cyprus: Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo - Official Music Video (Eurovision 2021 Cyprus). Good modern song, around @30 to win, I think this will be lower closer to May, so looks like value right now.

Austrias song performed by Vincent Bueno will be "Amen", but it has not been published yet. It's called the same as the song from Slovenia - not sure, if this is allowed tbh (?)

Icelands song will be "10 years". Not published yet. Serbia with Hurricane will try their luck with a song called "Loco Loco", but not yet published as well. Tornike Kipiani will sing "You", but we will have to wait for some music still.

Jendriks song for Germany: Jendrik - I Don't Feel Hate - Germany 🇩🇪 - Official Music Video - Eurovision 2021 I don't think this is super bad in regards to ESC, because it's very unique and kind of funny, which can be liked by the ESC community. Odds are around @300 and I think this is too high - Germany won't win, but if the odds for winning are too high, then Top10, Top5 and H2Hs are too high as well. Would be interested to hear what others think about this.

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I have read this mutliple times, but makes no sense to me You think it's nice, but then think it will lose. There can of course only be one winner - and I don't think it will be France - but I wouldn't call being placed like 2-10 losing, it's still a very good result. Even making the final is already a win in my book.

Thanks for the compliments, it was always fun doing the stats, although it took more and more time each week with the list growing bigger and adding more stats.



Yes, there were definitely more winners from here before week 44. I remember morvillz7z won once, rdbase too and probably some more, but might have been even before week 31. leea-1334 won in week 43 (alone !), but didn't post the picks in here, only joined afterwards. If anyone is bored, feel free to go through all 111 pages of this thread and check and report

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For a competition like this, it's better to have those swings^^ With going 8-8-8-8 all the time, you won't win nothing, going 4-12-11-5 is way better. And look at the fame points you made with just 17 participations, it's very good with ~12 on average. Only Avirunes, mitchr4 and Inagame are better:

Here are the last and probably worst MM results ever:



Trofo, Avirunes and jayce win this special edition and while Trofo and Avirunes are kind of used to this, for jayce this is the first win. Congratulations to you all for 33.33 fame points each.

This won’t be enough for some prize, looks like the winner will have 9 correct picks. At least it’s not one short again, we have seen this too often in the past already……

An average of only 4.33 correct picks is super bad and lots of users have hit their new personal worst with this last MM: JanpriX, tyKiwanuka, notblox1, leea-1334, BitcoinHunt3r, GbitG, cryptofrka, Ulven.

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Feels bad to do this, but here is……

The MM legacy

For 30 times I did the MM coverage here in this thread - felt like it was more, not sure, if this is a good or bad thing It started with 5 users in week 31 of 2020 and @JanpriX getting the first fame points ever from the famepoints genesis block. As the weeks went by, we saw users come and go, one thing was for sure though: @ralle14 would always drop by and share his picks, he didn't miss one damn MM all this time. But there are more veterans, the record holders:

30: ralle14
29: buwaytress, rdbase
28: Trofo, JanpriX
26: Avirunes
25: tyKiwanuka
21: tomahawk9
18: morvillz7z
17: arallmuus

In total we had 39 users publishing their picks at least once. The most crowded it was in weeks 51, 1 and 3 with 22 participants each. Lowest particiapation was the afore mentioned week 31 with only 5.

The records for 1X2 picked in my excel table only go back to week 39 (the rest is only in this thread), but in total we had 5575 picks since then. This doesn't add up to 15 per user per week, because big_daddy provided only 14 once and nelson4lov even only 11 in week 51

Home wins: 2703 / 48.48%
Draws: 965 / 17.31%
Away wins: 1907 / 34.21%

Since week 31 we had 6465 picks and only 3051 were correct, which makes for only a measly 47.19%, pretty bad I think

The best performance ever with 12 correct picks: buywaytress, arallmuus
The worst performance ever with only 2 correct picks: Avirunes, JanpriX (this week), BitcoinHunt3r (also this week !)
The best average (5 participations minimum): 1) rohang [8.2] 2) Turquinito [7.9] 3) mitchr4, jayce, jeremypwr [all 7.7]
Longest drought: buywaytress, waiting since week 36 (with those 12 correct ones) for some more fame points and you wasted your last chance this weekend
Most wins here in this thread, 7 each: Trofo, Avirunes
Overall MM winners from here (this is not complete): Avirunes, mitchr4, JanpriX, tyKiwanuka, Turquinito

Here is the all-time table (I hope there are no mistakes^^):



The king of fame points, winning the gold medal with 483 points, representing Roobet, is [startRoobetHymn]: Avirunes
The silver medal, with 325 fame points, representing ChipMixer, goes to: Trofo
The bronze medal, with 287 fame points, representing Sportsbet goes to: JanpriX

Congratulations

[/endRoobetHymn]

The MM was always fun, besides all the (Friday evening) annoyance it also brought, but thats betting. The players/teams don't always do what you want them to do - and it's good, otherwise it would be boring. I want to thank Sportsbet for doing this event all those weeks, for me this was the best and most fun promo ever. Also thanks to all the users who have contributed here and made this thread a very nice place to be in a section of the forum, which is not always easy to bear. And last but not least thanks to rdbase as our host in here.

Farewell MM

Hmm, hedging your bets is not what bookies are afraid of or the reason, why they don't allow multi-accounting. (Maybe you meant arbitrage ? Even though that is no problem with multi-accounting as well or would just be a small one). The reasons multi-accounting is not allowed are:

a) Bonus/Promotion abuse
Most bookies offer a bonus for your first deposit. This bonus has some rollover requirement, but is free money in the end. If multi-accounting was allowed, I could just take this bonus gazillion times and meeting the rollover requirement easily by doing the same in another bookie and play opposing bets in markets with low vig all the time, like US sports for example. Bet over in bookie A, bet under in bookie B and I will lose only a few % per bet, while getting my money withdrawable again.
The same goes for some promotions, where the more entries you can make, the higher your chances to win these promotions. 

b) Getting rid of unprofitable players
Winning users/accounts get a personal limit and can only stake very low then. These users only cost the bookie money and thus their accounts are made basically unusable. If multi-accounting would be allowed, these users could just make new accounts over and over, which is of course not wanted.
This is not fair (I think), but it is what it is and as said above a good risk management has its pros as well. The asian bookies have a better approach, since they don't limit these players but just follow their bets, maybe even with better odds and/or higher stakes and thus they are making money even with a generally unprofitable customer. And you can also use (or should I say abuse ?) these winning players to sharpen your odds, i.e. check what they are doing and adjust your odds accordingly.

Updated the calendar, thanks for reminding me.

I watched a good part of UAE Tour (I even watched Etoile de Besseges earlier this month ) and it was a good start to the real season I think. These mountains there are a bit meh, if you are used to the beautiful sceneries in Europe with small/narrow roads, some trees and all the tradition, but it was a good competition between Pogacar/Yates in stage 3. Dekker was nice to watch in the sprinting stages as well; he could be really good in the years to come and he isn't "just" a sprinter from all I know.

Regarding Froome, it will be interesting to see, what he can do throughout the season. I don't expect anything tbh

Tomorrow there will be K-B-K where basically all the guys from Omloop will be starting as well. There is one guy though, who wasn't at Omloop, but will start K-B-K and that is MvdP He had to leave UAE tour early, because of a Covid case in his team, but he looked in fine form winning stage 1 and should normally win tomorrow as well.

9/15 games decided and here is what we got so far:



Only Stuttgart was nice with most of us, in all other games, the final result was something that was not picked by the majority of users - the MM gods are not on our side. Nevertheless we have two promising runners still in the race and that is @jayce with 5 correct picks, followed by @tomahawk9 with 4. The leaderboard shows two guys with 5 correct picks before the Newcastle match and if they didn't have the X, then jayce might be co-leading this. Good luck for Sundays games for you both

Quite some users with only 1 correct pick, makes the farewell probably a bit easier

Happened a lot to me in the past (in niche sports) and I remember only one time, when my bet was voided and I was furious, because I felt cheated.

I think your example 3 shouldn't get voided, because this is a competition afterall and when you have better information/insights, then you should get rewarded, this is value betting. Especially if the odds stand for a long time until Asia comes out with their odds closer to match day. If you could bet on Berkane around 2-ish for some days, then these are obviously not wrong odds (although for you they are, because you know your stuff), but poor compiling.

A scenario, where I would be fine with getting this voided is, when I bet on Berkane maybe max bet, the market is suspended immediately and is re-opened with 1.05 afterwards. But when you max bet and the odds go from 2.10 -> 2.00, you max bet again and it goes from 2.00 -> 1.85, then these bets must stand.

Here are the picks for this last MM:



Again no full consensus pick, only one result not covered (Elche to win). Granada and Stuttgart get a lof trust, followed by Lazio, Eibar and Brighton. In general there are lots of games, where there is low consensus. Quite some draws picked again (22%) and Trofo is the driving force behind this

Lets hope someone from here can win this week and put himself into the history books of MM. Wishing everybody good luck for that