<sigh> Okay. Whatever. I guess he should just click his red shoe heels together 3 times and make everything happen.

Sorry, didn't ask about that. I presume that is all part of what he is working on, but I didn't ask since I don't have any hosted with him.

alfabitcoin & nightengale:

I'm just telling it to you the way I see it. Am I 100% confident SB is going to come through with the assembly/hosting/shipping refunds? No. Do I think SB's lack of updates on the forum is a mistake? Yes. But I also understand why he chooses not to enter the shitstorm. After all, if he really does come through with the refunds he outlined then I think 99% of us will be happy and all the problems go away. So he has 2 choices: enter the shitstorm, be dragged down into it, or just work on the refunds knowing that if he makes it right in the end then almost all will be forgiven.

As to if he is a scammer or not, I think it is pretty clear his original intentions were good and he has had his startup cluster bombed by Yifu's thievery. If you look at the history of what has transpired you'll see that so far he has made good on his promises *with* the exception of being slow and not giving frequent enough updates. If he was purely a scammer we obviously wouldn't have seen the chip refunds and he wouldn't have shipped the miners that have shipped.

So now the question is: will he really provide the refunds he outlined in his December post? Based on my phone conversation with him, I think the answer is he is working on it. If he had already decided to walk away from everything he wouldn't have called me. We all know this isn't going to be swept under the rug by time if he doesn't fulfill the refunds.

I'm willing to be patient though and see what happens over the next few weeks. If you want to start the lawsuits, label him a scammer, etc., then go for it. I think it might end up being wasted energy (and $$) but that is my judgement of the situation only. I remember a lot of the exact same people were convinced he was not going to give us are chip refunds (because it took a long time), but in the end those did come through...

-dmc

I called SB this morning and left a message. He called back within an hour and we had a nice long talk.

I know to say patience is wearing thin here is a gross understatement, but my impression after talking to him: 1) first and foremost, he is still around and hasn't run off somewhere, 2) he is working on getting the refund process setup so he can perform the assembly/hosting/shipping refunds outlined in his last email, 3) doing step #2 is more complicated than what you might assume (as a small business owner, I can sympathize greatly with this point), 4) he really wants to get the refunds behind him so he can move on, 5) he isn't active on the forum because he knows it is a shitstorm here and it will just slow him down (and frankly be depressing) from getting the only thing done that will truly appease everyone: getting the refunds processed.

My advice: put the pitchforks down for another couple of weeks and let's see how this plays out. Everyone's patience is thin (mine included), but I still do have some optimism this one is going to work itself out in the end.

-dmc

Just noticed a recent payout I have is queued up 9 blocks deep.

It looks like a bunch of payouts to 1Nbq2XZaRsKknf5fcT2wTXvBS31PaUWSeX didn't go through the last couple of days and so now they are bogarting the payment queue (maybe justifiably so) ? Anyone know what is going on?

Hi Bkk,

Thanks for sharing your utilities on github. I tried using the mkseeds script but I don't believe I understand the results. Here is an example:

curtain explain between grey wrote class climb creep tumble home engine long
1NYbAH5G51SFzL6QCtL2raZGQKU66KaUTw
1K4WMG9GhVdJiXaJdyboivaycB1Rvczh88
1PPTztU3SpiWKG26Vjyc8naU6jrmieJG65
19Dg2qFuXYDgBJ1Tr6cRViT4hGEj74JdWM
1KRomai4uBuMiV2CRu14YyA8B6aTH1HKHx

However, if I input the seed (curtain explain between grey wrote class climb creep tumble home engine long) into Electrum to restore a wallet then I don't get any of those addresses. Instead I get these receiving addresses:

144qz67Nocpm2iaqfJXP4Q4aj8cCuYbGmE
15T7K5X7kfLabSHriFx1dWK8VV17prmPhp
12rZg9dD8gHpQejNMSWRQva5jwwzAu6Twg
1FPFBu4ZsnZSWRQyjsXsMNLDHiGTa5cW4u
14K47NZPBVMTRFcsnJjUEpiLdvdot84wWp

Shouldn't those public addresses match the ones generated by mkseeds, or am I confused?

-dmc

Steamboat's identity is pretty widely known at this point, so John's escrow of his identity isn't really needed/useful from a legal standpoint.

I'm still hopeful that SB comes through with his promised refunds. He said it would take weeks, so I am/was willing to give him weeks. It has been about a month now, so I am anxious at this point to see the refund process get started.

-dmc

Seriously doubtful on that one.

Are you just referring to the November quote from SmiGuel you dug up? I pretty confident everyone knows that January is just tapeout and hardware is still months away.

If anyone on here is expecting hardware in a few weeks please speak up so we can get a count for maths.

Seriously doubtful on that one.

Are you just referring to the November quote from SmiGuel you dug up? I pretty confident everyone knows that January is just tapeout and hardware is still months away.

If anyone on here is expecting hardware in a few weeks please speak up so we can get a count for maths.

I do agree that the days of AM self-mining 10 to 20% of total network hash are likely over. But that doesn't matter.

AM isn't going to sell 20P and then go out of business. That is the FIRST BATCH of their next gen chips, which based on the prelim target specs will be highly competitive both in wafer cost and power efficiency.

It doesn't matter if AM self-mines, sells turnkey miners, or just sells chips as long as they are maximizing their profit. Is the profit margin for selling mining hardware decreasing? Of course, but based on the specs AM will be able to get a very healthy profit from their chips and/or miners.

Ahh.. yes. Thank you. So clear now. Someday I will come up with grand mathematical proofs of my own now to make grand predictions.

BTW, seen AM price on Havelock lately? I just cannot figure out why that sucker is going in the wrong direction.

So somehow despite AM producing hardware whose specs will be highly competitive with all other hardware produced, and despite a proven track record of being able to actually ship hardware/chips, AM will not capture 5% of the mining business profits. If you believe your "mathematical proof" proves that, then please short away at the stock.

As I've said several times now, I do NOT care about AM hash share. I care about how much of the BTC mining profit share AM has. Do I think they will have 5% of that? No, based on the specs of their gen3 and past track record of actually getting hardware to market, I think they will have more than 5%.

I ignored it because, as I said, I don't care what AM's share of the network is. I care what AM's share of the mining profit pool is. Trust me, I fully understand the nature of increased difficulty and how that impacts mining profits.

I think gen3 will (based on its specs) set them on the trajectory for owning 5%+ of that pool for a foreseeable amount of time (again, foreseeable for me is several months). If you agree with that, then that equates to a 54% annual dividend rate. I don't care if that dividend comes from AM selling chips/miners in batches or if it comes over a 12 month period of self mining. If AM shows that it is on a trajectory to get 5% or more of that mining profits for a reasonable amount of time, then it is way undervalued. You don't think they will apparently, even with gen3, which is fine. In a few months we'll see what happens.

Why in the world would AM sell 20P (first batch) and then stop manufacturing/selling additional batches? Do you think gen3 AM is going to only be profitable for a single batch or something, or you think it is going to take them several months to cook up another batch?

Note AM is still selling gen1 cubes at a profit, albeit a small and decreasing one.

Also note I don't care what AM share of the network is. I don't care if they don't self mine at all. I care that they maximize profit.

I don't think gen3 will be able to maintain a constant network share, but neither does it have to. I do think that gen3 will put AM on the trajectory to own 5%+ (perhaps much more) of the mining profit pool for the foreseeable future. Foreseeable being several months, which is all that matters -- after that we all need crystal balls in regards to gen4+ hardware.

Time will tell. You seem quite surprised at the recent AM price increase and are looking for explanations / reasons, but you want to dismiss them all. Do you really think that if, in a few months, AM can sell 20P of miners in a few week period (for just the first deployment of gen3) the stock price is going to be around 0.3 BTC as all those dividends come flowing in every week?

There will be over 1.3 million BTC mined over the 12 month period. Actually more since blocks will be found on average every 8 to 9 minutes instead of every 10 minutes. Consumer mining companies thus far have been able to sell hardware at a higher profit than self mining (more profit in selling shovels, etc.), but profit margins will be decreasing. So let's leave 1.3 million BTC as the profit amount.

If AM produces <0.2W per G and <0.2$ per G on wafer cost then what share of the 1.3 million BTC pie do you think they will get? Multiply that percentage by 1.3 mil BTC / 400,000 and you get your dividend amount from AM. Say AM captures 5% of the mining profits, that will be 0.1625 BTC, or a 54% total dividend at a share price of 0.30 BTC. If they capture 12% of the mining profits, then that is a 130% dividend.

Can AM really capture 5%+ of the profit over a 12 month period? Maybe, maybe not. But I think if their gen 3 showing meets their goals then they will have the correct trajectory to, at least for the first few months, capture higher than that. No way the share price is going to stay around 0.3 BTC if that happens.

Years? If AM pulls through with <0.2W per G and <0.2$ per G on wafer cost in the next few months (and if that is competitive with other companies, which I think it will be) then share price will be over 0.5 BTC in months, not years. You seem to be viewing AM as a pure mining dividend play, which it isn't. AM != cex.io.

The 2P to 20P range is just for the FIRST batch of gen 3 deployment. There will be other batches as well. What is important isn't deployment size or nm mask size, but rather this:

If one thinks that those numbers will be competitive with what other companies are producing in a few months, then AM will have a good slice of the mining pie (either through mining, sales, or franchising) and will have a value much higher than 0.3 BTC / share.

I don't have any photos but the solution was pretty inelegant. I just shoved the capacitor leads into the back of the power connectors going into the cubes (I used 2 capacitors on each cube). Just make sure the negative lead on the capacitor goes to the black/neutral wired in the connector. After it started up I just removed the capacitors and set them down next to the cubes in case they lose power and I have to restart them. I was going to come up with a more permanent solution but I haven't had to power down the cubes yet so the motivation is quite low.

-dmc