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101  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] BTCINVEST - Low risk investment fund | Market cap: 2000+ BTC on: January 01, 2014, 10:05:31 PM

Also, a few people have asked if I would be willing to take over the BTCInvest asset and try to help wrap it up since TF has disappeared since I have the most knowledge over the account at least on BF. As to this, I would consider it, but only if TF does not pop up and agree to take it over and do it right, and if the other asset issuers would accept control over the assets since I obviously would not be able to sign a message for the public address. If it were to happen, I would probably put up a similar claim portal to the one I am making for Ukyo.Loan. And also the majority of BTCInvest'ors would need to agree.

-Ukyo

I was holding 115 shares of BTCINVEST when TF froze it, and later disappeared. I would definitely agree to Ukyo taking control of any remaining assets on Bitfunder and liquidating them for the benefit of shareholders.

Thank you very much for your offer Ukyo! An unexpected bit of positive news at the start of the New Year.

Happy New Year to all.


I own 10 shares of BTCINVEST and I second that. Thank you Ukyo.
102  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The official "what about the roads?" thread on: December 27, 2013, 01:48:20 AM
Instead of coming up with an out-of-the-box idea, I'd like to point your attention to one that already exists, regarding toll roads.

Recently, a new "toll lane" was constructed alongside one of Israel's busiest highways. It is privately built and maintained, and physically separated from the 3-4 public lanes of the road.
When the public road is congested (which it usually is), you can choose to bypass the traffic jam by entering the toll lane.

The really neat part is the pricing of the toll. There's a camera above the entrance to the lane, and a computer counts the number of cars entering. An algorithm automatically adjusts the price according to the number of cars already inside the lane. The more cars enter the lane, the more demand there is for using it, and the higher the price will get. A digital sign just before the entrance to the lane presents the current price, and is updated minute-by-minute. This way, drivers can decide whether to use the toll lane or the public lanes, based on how bad the traffic is on the public lanes and how expensive the toll lane currently is.

The live price adjustment can assure that there is NEVER a traffic jam on the toll lane, no matter how congested the public lanes are, by balancing demand and supply. Drivers can be certain that entering the lane will allow them to quickly bypass the traffic jam - the only question is, how much are they willing to pay for that. In fact, the company that runs the lane will not charge you if you spend more than X minutes on the lane due to congestion. This is all monitored automatically by cameras along the road.

By the way, there is no need for complicated RFID-based solutions for toll collection - the cameras do that too. They just snap a picture of your license plate and the bill comes in the mail a few days later.
103  Economy / Speculation / Re: More retailers accepting Bitcoin could cause the price to drop...... on: December 23, 2013, 10:33:51 PM
Why the hell would someone buy bitcoins to buy goods the same day. That would be really stupid.
Either you bought coins and speculate on a price increase and spend them in the future or you mined the coins.

This could really drive the price down. Thats good, because we need to find the "true" value of bitcoin with high transactions in real life. It could be worth 1$ or 100000$, we will see.

Well if you're treating bitcoin only as a speculative commodity and not as a currency, then yes, you are absolutely right.
I certainly hope most people in the bitcoin ecosystem disagree with you.
104  Economy / Speculation / Re: More retailers accepting Bitcoin could cause the price to drop...... on: December 23, 2013, 10:23:20 PM
Overstock have stated that as soon as they make a sale and are paid in BTC they will convert it straight to fiat. Now if this a gradual process that will be fine but imagine if for example:

1000 shoppers spend 0.25BTC in 1 day - 250BTC in total

Overstock will then covert this BTC to fiat instantly, I was merely meaning that as Overstock (and other retailers following this practice) try to sell this much BTC in one day, everyday, there will need to be increased demand for BTC to sustain the prices.

Retailers choosing to adopt BTC should NOT be converting it instantly to fiat - in my opinion.

You realize the 1000 shoppers will first have to buy the 250BTC in order to spend them...
It's a closed loop. Say I buy a bitcoin, immediately spend it on Overstock, and then Overstock immediately sells it for fiat. The market price will not change at all - only the exchange volume will go up. This will decrease volatility, as well as convince more people that bitcoin is a real transactional currency.

This can only be a good thing for the ecosystem. Of course, I agree it would be even better if they kept the bitcoins and used them to pay salaries and suppliers, but that will take a while.
105  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear chart on: December 22, 2013, 10:57:19 PM
One thing is for sure though on that graph I posted of bitcoin days every time we get a spike bitcoin price eventually gets hit.  That cannot be disputed (you can assign whatever other reasons you want but the chart is there,  just a fact no reasons needed) .  Whether the pattern gets broken,  we shall see.


That's not entirely precise. The spikes you outlined on the chart actually take place a little bit after the price starts crashing, not before.
For each spike, I noted when it occurred relative to the crash, and how the price changed after the spike:

Date             BDD              Price change

14/06/2011    53,532,635    4 days after crash began. Price continued to decline slowly for months.
16/11/2011    52,127,501    2 days after crash began. Price rose over the following weeks.
10/04/2013    52,694,509    The day of the crash. Price continued to decline.

There was another big spike (above 50,000,000 days destroyed) which you didn't outline:

25/10/2013    57,050,042    1 day after small crash began. Followed by weeks of exponential increase.


So there's no clear correlation, except that transaction volume and bitcoin days destroyed spike after a crash begins, as people rush to move coins from their wallets to exchanges for liquidation. The price behaviour after a spike in bitcoin days destroyed is not at all consistent.

I will also note, as I've said before, that yesterday was significantly different from previous spikes in that output volume was low. What happened yesterday cannot be compared to the previous spikes.
106  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear chart on: December 22, 2013, 09:06:53 PM
because something makes you suspect your coins are no longer safe.

Also makes sense, maybe these just moved to a new, safer tech for cold storage. In fact that is the most plausible explanation yet, why they moved like they did.

Yeah, If those are really old coins, they were in an unencrypted wallet... would make sense to move them to Armory or a paper wallet.


A bigshot miner from 2010 leaves 120k coins unencrypted for almost 3 years?
I guess anything's possible...
Anyway, it's pretty clear they weren't moved to an exchange. Either they weren't sold, or they were sold off the market.
Either way, I don't expect this to affect market prices.
107  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear chart on: December 22, 2013, 08:57:14 PM
Not for the last spike, but the previous ones in bitcoin days destroyed: isn't it a lot of people moving coins from cold storage to cash out just after a big value loss?  

Probably. In fact, whenever the transaction volume goes up, bitcoin days destroyed is bound to go up too...
So the OP chart isn't much use on its own. The interesting metric is the ratio of bitcoin days destroyed / total output volume. That actually makes yesterday much more interesting: all the previous spikes in days destroyed were correlated to high output volume. Yesterday wasn't just the highest spike in days destroyed ever, it also happened on a day with below-average output volume.
108  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear chart on: December 22, 2013, 08:34:30 PM
Is it not possible that he or she just wanted to move coins from one address he or she controls to another? If I had 400K BTC all in one address, I'd get a bit nervous myself... I'd want some in Armory, some in paper wallets, some who knows where... but they'd still be mine.


Possible, but not likely. There were 120k coins in 28 addresses. Each was moved to a new address. So now there are still 120k coins in 28 addresses, just different addresses. No reorganisation, just a transfer.

Plus, if you thought your coins were safe where they sat since March 2nd, 2011, why change your mind now?
109  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear chart on: December 22, 2013, 07:23:29 PM
and copy and paste

"I've done a bit of blockchain exploring.

The block in question where all the bitcoin days were destroyed is this one:

https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000048445e1220a78e53de15c74160ffbe4dad0b52099560e045f

About 120,000 btc were moved. There are many transactions in this block in the 4,500-5,000 btc range. I followed the source addresses back in time. The ones I've looked at all trace their heritage to this monstrous transaction from 27 January 2011:

https://blockchain.info/tx/8f8210694d3631a88ff410c573d80caf57db1d8af397bd47687aa4e4c1802464

A single transaction moved 400,000 btc to a single address; this one:

https://blockchain.info/address/1AYtnRppWM7tWQaVLpm7TvcHKrjKxgCRvX

So whoever made the transaction yesterday had 400,000 btc in a single address in 2011. If it isn't Satoshi, who the hell is it?

Note that that 1AY... address had some transactions on 26 November this year; shortly before the ATH on 28 November. A huge whale, perhaps the biggest single holder of btc in existence, is stirring. The question is, why?

EDIT: 400,000 btc in early 2011 was almost 10% of all btc in existence. In a single address. Wow."


Wow... You're right, I missed that. ~120k coins, a bit over 1000 days old. And it's pretty clear they were sold, because all the outputs just moved 'as is' to new addresses. No splitting, merging, mixing, or otherwise rearranging. Why would someone do that if not to simply transfer the funds to someone else?

Note that the transactions on Nov. 26 were of negligible quantity; however, if you follow some of the money around, it kinda looks like some of it was sold during 2012.
110  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin bear chart on: December 22, 2013, 06:46:35 PM
130k 3-yr old coins

How do you figure that? I guessed it would be a smaller amount of older coins, seeing how there were no huge transactions yesterday (involving old coins) and no spike in total output volume.
111  Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement on: December 22, 2013, 02:10:23 PM
Finished working on the website and updating spreadsheets for years end at ~3:30AM, 7:45AM back up and working... Get the Keurig joke now?  Wink

Can you tweak the Keurig so it pulls in some hashes when it's not making coffee? Maybe we'll call it a Keu-mini-rig  Undecided
112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 22, 2013, 06:01:11 AM
A hall of smoke and mirrors is clearer, but it seems he had as many as 600k and the FBI seized 25% of them in October.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307463.0

I believe they seized almost 30k of customer's funds:

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

Plus 144k of DPR's money:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH

The 600k figure was an estimate of the total revenue Silk Road had ever made. It doesn't account for tens of thousands of Bitcoins that he had spent over the years (on things like server expenses, paid employees, fake hitmen etc...).
113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 22, 2013, 05:35:57 AM

This can't be it, these are brand new coins...

It's probably a bunch of small transactions. As mentioned on reddit, the big 2009/2010 miners usually kept each 50 BTC block reward in a separate address, so it's possible the mystery whale moved them out in separate transactions for each address.

Could it be the FBI moving DPR's remaining 400k coins @ average 1 year old?


Possible, but that would probably spike the total transaction volume quite a bit. Seems to make more sense that it's a smaller sum but very old.
Also, I thought DPR had much less than 400k coins...
114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 22, 2013, 05:25:06 AM

This can't be it, these are brand new coins...

It's probably a bunch of small transactions. As mentioned on reddit, the big 2009/2010 miners usually kept each 50 BTC block reward in a separate address, so it's possible the mystery whale moved them out in separate transactions for each address.
115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 22, 2013, 04:01:07 AM

I still don't understand this post. Was it large chunks moved hence 'days destroyed' or was it many small amounts?

"So a high number of bitcoin days destroyed means that either old coins that haven't moved for a long time are moving, or that someone with a large number of bitcoins are spending them (or both)."

In this case you can actually tell that it's old coins.
The total output volume yesterday was about 1 million BTC, which is below the recent average. The days destroyed were about 134 million, which is WAY above average. Therefore you can assume that most of the coins transacted were "regular" young coins, but some of them were very very old.

To back this up, blockchain.info has a feature that filters days destoryed by coin age. If you filter with a minimum of 1 year, those transactions account for 131 million out of 134 million total days destroyed yesterday. Since most of the coins moved on an average day are just a few days old, this further suggests that a significant amount of coins more than 1 year old were moved.

Assuming no more than 100,000 old coins are involved (probably much less), they would have to be at least 3.5 years old. So it seems likely that a very big miner from 2009/2010 just moved a lot of coins for the first time since mining them.
116  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] btcQuick - Bitcoin Sales Service on: December 22, 2013, 03:37:55 AM

Only 28 minutes left says blockchain.info despite there being dust.

Edit: 7 hours now, guess the dust did effect it

Well if it fails again I will submit it with a fee of 0.01...

Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but if there are outputs under 5430 satoshis the transaction will be considered non-standard since 0.8.2. Will a higher fee help?

EDIT: Never mind, it now looks like the original transaction with 0.0001 fee was confirmed somehow...
117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 21, 2013, 10:49:27 PM
I have been thinking a lot about the doge phenomenon and it is really quite interesting.

Conceived as  a parody, think of it as an actual implementation of CosbyCoin, it is one of the more elaborate mass trolls of our time.

I believe its intention was to point out the absurdity of cryptocurrencies in general, fair enough, this is a pretty out-there idea whatever its merits, but it has kind of blown up in the creators faces and threatens to teach the creators a lesson about the fundamental nature of money; that ANYTHING can be money if only people agree that it is.  It puts me in mind of the Rai stones of Micronesia.

It's the very definition of funny money  Smiley

But Dogecoin is not just based on a meme, it is a meme itself. Therefore, it will follow the rules of memetic epidemiology - rise exponentially for a while, then disappear.
118  Other / Politics & Society / Re: On the topic of climate change... on: December 20, 2013, 03:10:02 AM
I think this poll is irrelevant, because belief doesn't enter into it. That's the beauty of scientific facts - they're going to stay the same, no matter what you think about them. The world is going to stay round even if you really believe it's flat.

As for the policy enacted in regard to these scientific facts, that's something we should all debate. We're all entitled to our political opinion, and we should certainly have our say when it comes to responding to climate change. Hence, a better poll might ask whether or not we believe in carbon regulation and taxation, cap and trade schemes, alternative energy subsidies, and other such environmental policy. But whether or not we believe in the existence of anthropogenic climate change is entirely irrelevant.
119  Economy / Securities / Re: What is TradeFortress' business bus factor? on: December 19, 2013, 07:09:44 PM
Also he didnt steal 1,3 million USD he stole bitcoins

Not to mention, the bitcoins he stole are worth much, much more than 1.3 million USD.
120  Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement on: December 19, 2013, 06:33:25 PM
.....

January 2013: BFL Monarchs, maybe?  (Unless the Dec added IS the monarchs?)

.....


According to BFL_Josh the first Monarch boards will be available around the last week of January if everything goes to plan without any further delays. This is due to scheduling delays at the very expensive foundry (so they win!)

Unfortunately, the Zerlanian calendar differs from the Gregorian one in that "January" means August and "Two weeks" means a year.
Someone should really write an app that automatically translates Zerlan time to regular time, just to give BFL fans some reasonable proportions.
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