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101  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? on: September 07, 2019, 06:45:27 AM
About the pitfalls of Martingale money management strategy read here: http://sportstatist.com/the-pitfalls-of-martingale-money-management-strategy/

The book/article author himself being a loser when apply this strategy thus wrote the book base on his own experience, research and references. One thing we may never know which is a successfully guy know his way will never publish a book or article about it because it will not be welcome and expose the strategy to be defended.
102  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 07, 2019, 06:29:01 AM

Yeas, sometimes not available visit Gambling site IP Trouble few countries blocked Gambling site there are no visited possible without VPN dont be worry possible everything freeroll, lottery, buy tickets every future and must be followed FreeBitco.in Terms & condition.
Freebitco.in isn't a gambling site. They have known as  a faucet site, their HI LO games only to attract people to make their faucet money become greater or for those who can't patient playing with faucet.
I never had any login problem since i visited their site for the first time until now (i don't need to use VPN on here)

Freebitco is now a gambling site and Faucet is just a bonus for all users, considering how much people love it they have not removed it yet. If you see the site now they’re offering bets on all events be it sports, politics etc hence you see gradually they’re turning it into a gambling site.

They have dice initially, thus it's belong to a gambling category at the beginning, it's the smart move of the owner (wetsuit) in which attract as many users as possible and drive them into gamble silently and slowly way. The use of free faucet as the main marketing tool but never let the dice (gambling) thing to be mentioned too much is another smart strategy in which help themself removed from those "comparision lists" with other gambling sites. It's too good to be let alone with 5% house edge and earning their way without any complaint. One more thing is "earning interest daily with your bitcoin", another smart strategy of the owner, instead of calling for bankroll investors and share a high percentage of profit with them he just borrow the fund and pay them 4.08% per year only, as well as to stay away headache of being responsible for making investors happy (yelling all day long for reports, bankroll, profit/loss, dividends). The owner understand deeply how a typical bank work, if you understand how the money move within a bank you would realize the same with this site.
103  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What Would you Like to See in a New Casino Site on: September 06, 2019, 04:56:42 PM


I don’t even want their fake ass bonuses, my desire or what I would have loved on new site is to make the game also be in favor of players. Stop making it more difficult for players to win games.

 Grin Grin i can't agree more on the fake ass bonuses Grin
I don't online casinos games will ever go easy for players. Its more like everyday, games becomes difficult to play; players put in more than they gain.
I feel, nowadays online casinos owners are becoming greedy this days. Its understanding that the site is created for profit but making it solely for profit is very frustrating especially for new players. But as players, its either we up our game or quite playing.

Greedy is another way to explain of lack of capital, people without any capital or small (like 0.5BTC) but would like to earn fast throught crypto gambling thus programming the casino site and call for bankroll investment. It's hard for them to compete with old time casino which has alot of bank roll.

Imaging the site with big enough bankroll and max win is 10+ BTC would be definately the final destination for gamblers (come and stay) rather than a new casino that the owner cannot effort to pay that amount but like 0.01 BTC max win...for me this kind of casino definately doing some shady things like: faking the wagering activities & faking stats of number of bets or wagered amount to attract players. It hard to believe on a site of which released for few months but total wagered is much more than expected or total number of bets reached few times bigger than the old school ones which exist for years.

To be honest, if anyone would like to open a casino business, he should have at least few hundreds BTC on hand before thinking of coding a website & call for bankroll investment, but it's hard to find that kind of person since "buy low/ sell high", hold if wrong entry is better for him rather than self causing headache for managing a bussiness with the need of technical expertize (site security/ hacking prevention/ etc...) and market competition/ fighting to get customers with other sites.

And for feature on a New Casino Site as suggested by this topic:
- Fast betting speed, high max win, 1 sat starting bet (no speed limit)
- Attractive & visible wagering bonus: fixed 10% - 20% house edge and let the user "claim manually", it may have some wagering requirement (sites should learn this from Freebitco.in, i like the visibility of it)
- Attractive & visible lost back: fixed 5% - 10% house edge and let the user "claim manually"..credit directly into account (applicable to user with profit < 0).
- Treasure chest: user level decide how many chest he can open per 24 hours, with random reward amount depend on level (leveling here is sole purpose to give how many chest a user can open, not a term to decide % of rake back/loss back like what currently Bitdice.me do....it's not interesting).

To provide all of above, it's certainly not for a poor wanna be quick rich guy with some knowledge on programming a website but for a guy with decent capital (few hundreds BTC as I said above). But well, if anyone managed to have all of those..you gonna be big really fast.
104  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Seuntjie' Dice bot programmers mode discussion. on: September 06, 2019, 03:38:05 PM
Not sure if the programming mode support this:

betsides = [L, H, L, L, H, L, H, H, L, L....]
stakes = [1, 1, 1, 2, 3,4, 5, 6...]
betodds = [2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, ....]

if win
 nextside = betsides[0]
 nextstake = stakes[0]
 nextodd = betodds[0]

else //lose
 nextside = betsides[currentstreak]
 nextstake = stakes[currentstreak]
 nextodd = betodds[currentstreak]

Questions are:
1) Will above variables taken for use in the bot (nextside, nextstake, nextodd)? If not, how to implement above?
2) Is the first lose will cause currentstreak = 1?
3) If above array list suported, what is the maximum size? Basically I need 3000+
105  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Martingale revisited on: September 06, 2019, 01:25:36 PM
~

make sure you check provably fair/seed regularly, I personally do not post username on gambling site, it is exposed and who know.
106  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? on: September 06, 2019, 10:58:25 AM
So long as there is no upper limit on bet size, and you have unlimited balance, then you should eventually win using the martingale method.

However, given that the house edge exists it is like comparing two infinite states, where one infinite is marginally bigger than the other.

Because of this, even with infinite balance and no bet size limit, the house is still more likely to get a lucky run that somehow empties your limitless balance.

Beyond that, most casinos have a max bet size or win amount that will eventually rekt you when using martingale.

Quote
Beyond that, most casinos have a max bet size or win amount that will eventually rekt you when using martingale.

I guess this means the casinos believe  martingale actually works hence the use of maximum bet size? If this is the case, the Op could try martingale on casino without maximum bet size. He could be lucky you know? .

That's true, majority of the casinos  would not have more than i.e 10k btc, but many whales have that or much more than that.  That why house edge and max win/bet are put in. If you search back the Freebitco.in site, in which initiallly their house edge is 0 and they got drained so fast thus 5% edge introduced and did not changed by then.
107  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? on: September 06, 2019, 07:30:46 AM
Your test result on the same calculation method for martingale, in which after you lose, multiply by x. That's one of the way to do martingale and known to be failed early.

Check the following stat of my own martingale method (not publicity exist yet and no i don't publish it) and tell me how it can survive (21 million bets+).
https://imgur.com/a/1SIspbc

If you want to prove more, I will get a screenshot after it reach 100m bets, keep follow up since it's real betting thus taking like 10-11 months to have that.



You've earned 40$ after 21m bets while risking 750 $ if martingale will go too far? With regular martingale ~30% gamblers are lucky enough to double. You are far from doubling. Even if you will double your portfolio (earn 15 times more than you have already earned) you could be in those 30% lucky gamblers - it does not proof that your strategy is working. In fact if you will proof that it works you will open door to new mathematics in which 1+1=/2 because simple math proofs that it is impossible to beat casino.

You may mistaken from budget vs wagered amount, my budget is 1 LTC which is 66$ or at the time I input in @100$. With that 66$ and wagered 750$, it's performance is far better than the house edge, which is 40/750 = 5.3% earning per whatever wagered amount goes, and the drawdown is not even reaching 50% of it (aka 33$). So current capital is 66$+40$ = 104$.

But you have based on dollar cost averaging thus not applicable in this case, since the site translate everything into BTC for stat and the real stat is: 1LTC budget, 0.72876726 LTC profit after 8.83229109 LTC wagered or 72% profit per budgeted amount, or 8.25% per wagered amount. The key is the later percentage in which it keep following the wagered amount (not capital) the more it wager, the more it earn and as long as this percentage is greater than the house edge of 1%, it alive as long as it should be because it is harder to lose since the profit increase, and the running balance keep increase as well as drawdown is less than 50%.

Majority of the tests out there do not take into account the earning rate (running current balance) but only calcualate base on original balance. They missed the "moving variable" which is the earning (or profit), as long as it go faster than what is required to win a rare streak, it's still success.

For test, yes I did test but simulated of each win/lose bet including the earning too which is "bottom up" to get the final summarization, not by simple formula base on few variables which is "generic" or "top down". If you ever hear of bottom up or top down estimation/calculation, you will know that bottom up method yeid a more accurate result than the other. And the number of test I've done (which is the most important factor that affect the result) is 200 millions at least, as well as time taken to do so is few weeks, not by a simply click where the computer give the result immediately.
108  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? on: September 05, 2019, 05:15:42 PM
I've coded a simulation (brute force) in which i've tested martingale:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5112216.msg49832531#msg49832531

And also i'm running a thread in which i'm coding simulation of every strategy given by community to show that none is better than single bet strategy (all your money in single bet, double or go home with 0)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5177375.msg52217862#msg52217862

Your test result on the same calculation method for martingale, in which after you lose, multiply by x. That's one of the way to do martingale and known to be failed early.

Check the following stat of my own martingale method (not publicity exist yet and no i don't publish it) and tell me how it can survive (21 million bets+).
https://imgur.com/a/1SIspbc

If you want to prove more, I will get a screenshot after it reach 100m bets, keep follow up since it's real betting thus taking like 10-11 months to have that.

109  Economy / Gambling / Re: BITDICE.me - Crypto Casino 🎰 Now Accepting EOS | Roll Hunt | Bonuses on: September 05, 2019, 04:30:07 PM
I really love this site. All the factors that I look for the ideal gaming site are all here. From good choice of the games,to very good game graphics it is perfect for me. And the most good thing about this site is their being fair features. I think this site will stay alive in a long period of time because they continue to innovate their games and features.

Draw users from other sites should be their major compain now, it's quite hard but hope they could success with it. For the fairness, I think it's good so far I am a bot player 24/7 for more than 2 months and their provably fair work as expected.
110  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 05, 2019, 04:21:33 PM
I deposited on this website big amounts. Collected interest, went in and out whenever I wanted. Never had any problems.

I can't speak for the future but my past and on-going experiences say there is no scam.

I deposited 0.007 BTC to my freebitco.in account more than a year ago and have been earning passive interest since then. When I needed 0.001 some time ago I withdrew that amount from the site without any problems and with the lowest fee possible.

This site is surely not a scam, but it will always have haters saying bad things about it because this happens to anything which is popular and prosperous.

I cannot speak from a personal perspective as you did.
I have never deposited any amount, because I am afraid that it is just a pyramid scheme. I don't accuse the website, I am just saying my personal opinion.

Each person has his own view/ perspective, and the first thing to look for before reading and thinking of a post is the left hand side, if it's a kind of ad (avatar) for a casino then majority of them will take their side with Freebitco.in. You will find that any opposite opinion from a gambler/player (which has no casino ads) will get cursed fast/ alot. For me I am only take it serious if it's a comment from a gambler/player (no ads avatar at all).
111  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? on: September 05, 2019, 11:02:05 AM
Martingale is an aggressive strategy where you double every next bet. It works sometimes, but not forever, sooner or later you stumble upon some losing streak and you lost everything you have.
If you wish to win in gambling you need to play aggressive and you need to bet higher after you lose. Talking about this in few lines is impossible, cause everything depends from the game you play, your bankroll and of course what kind of odds you prefer to bet on. I tried many strategies and non of them works entire night, that`s why I advise to mix your strategies, to change them often, to change games you play as much as possible, same like you need to change odds you bet on, as much often as you are capable. Try playing with bigger amounts and lower odds, then try to hit some big odd with small bet, you need to have some feeling about what will happen next and try to predict the outcome.

That's the main reason for every one to lose, it does not need to do so, there is odd to be used as martingale base rather than bet stake. And "double every next bet" is a for sure lose, with combination of odd, and increase enough bet size it may be as less as 0.01% is enough to recover loss and earn some gains. Another case where majority of people don't realize that with the same capital betting on 50% chance will cause the whole balance to be lost easier than 10% chance.

Also, the statement "you will lose in long lerm" is correct but not 100%, the question here is how long it is, "standard long" may be a week 24/7, but it may be extended as long as 1 year or 10 years. If you managed to have a strategy that can stretch 10 years 24/7 straight.. that could be enough since you may have option to quit with profit during the time.
112  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Your Favorite Dice Game Platform on: September 04, 2019, 07:39:54 PM
I always play dices on bitsler.com
They used to have some free faucets to play and it was fun
Even when the faucets ended, I'm still playing there a few days a month when I want to play dice
It's reliable
i played there 2 days ago for testing but the bet speed is for me to slow and if i login into seuntjie bot i get logged out from the website. if i login to website again for claiming the bot stop thats annoying

My first priority - 1 sat min bet and no speed limit:
- Freebitco.in
- Bitdice.me

Bitdice.me performance is not as good as Freebitco.in since they may be smaller but far better than any other site because they don't limit the speed. An average of 3.5 to 4 bets per second for my connection is acceptable taking into account the transition / new things they are developing and hope that speed issue is resolved by the release time. In term of House Edge Bitdice.me won over Freebitco.in.

In term of bot friendly (login/ api / timeout issues / cloudflare things) this two sites also win. Tried Bitvest.io but their captcha service suck, causing bot to stop working after a long suspension period (6 - 12 hours), I left it after asking support as if any way to remove the captcha (as Freebitco.in do) but there is no option for that.

Other sites either having high minimum bet or low max win or speed cap on low bet size are not in my consider list (tried Bitsler, Primedice and bot performance is too bad, thus I left).

Remaining unmentioned sites that push me out right away without trying due to their max win/min bet/ too low max odd (sites with ~ 99 odds), martingale & bot can't survive long enough.
113  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning? on: September 04, 2019, 04:51:00 PM
It depend on how do you perform multiply after each lose, I myself did it differently which is not "multiply the stake by x % after each lose" but:
- Given B as current running balance (capital & profit).
- Given D as the biggest drawdown (total cummulative loss of the losing streak before a win).
- With above values, maintain bets with appropriate stake sizes so that the expression B > D * 2 remain true all the time.

The tricky part is to find out best multiply value, it is not too common of "multiply by x2 after each loss on 50% win chance" but, basically after a rare losing streak occured, let call it LS your profit after winning that streak your balance basically can sustain LS + 1 and also maintaining above expression B > D * 2. It's a kind of "curve fitting" in Excel which more than one of you may hear of in which there is always a gap between your running balance and the cost/drawdown of the losing streak. Another variable to look for which is total earned/profit versus total wagered, from which I've done in simulation & real playing on dice game it is maintained at 7.8% to 8.0% of wagered amount. The more the wager amount increased the more profit made (to maintain that 7.8% - 8.0% ratio) and it always be B > D * 2. A requirement is the casino chosen for your play must have house edge less than this earned rate.

Recall rare losing streak, split it further into common rare losing streaks and extremely rare losing streaks where your running balance should be able to sustain the common ones (B > D * 2), and the extremely rare one is base on luck, but delay it as long as possible (basically 1 in 1 billion bets). To have this kind of bet count, utilize simulation mode of those bots available today or write yourself a provably fair number generator and test against it.

In summary, it's not "martingale increase your chance of winning" but "delay the losing chance of all captital & profit to the minimum or delay it as long as you can". Since above 1 billion bets in real life, with asumption of a casino that support 4 bets per second (250ms per request), you can sustain 1000000000/4/3600/24 = 2893 days. Almost 8 years and who know you might quit in between in the green (given a scenario that you did not get bursted too early, well it's extremely unlucky), test out first, utilize multiple instances with the simulation mode of bots to reduce testing time.
 
114  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Why do whales move Bitcoin around from wallet to wallet? on: September 04, 2019, 06:57:05 AM
Another way to think is they try to hide their profit at the time of cashing out in USD, that's what I know since some places on earth charge tax on crypto earning such as the US and people can declare their coins tax base on transactions, thus moving around and play with the price actions will help (at the time the cash in your hand, your profit is 0 or less, so 0% tax charged). It's the same purpose of someone buy/sell old wallet addresses.
115  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: September 04, 2019, 06:21:23 AM
I am not sure of fake IDs, but managed list of lottery ticket owners that eligible for enrolling a specific lottery draw is more or less "exist". An example scenario would be someone who referred other people years back but didn't touch the site since then and his players are still playing thus he get free lottery tickets via referral system. The problem arise here is the chance of "dead coin" exist, in which they paid the prize to this kind of user and the guy never notice of the winning to take out or use it on dice game thus the site will lose this liquidity due to its inactive/not moving issue. They may argue that "winner get a notification email" but well, there are people who made fake email address just for use with online activities and never touch it again after it is used to verify the other online account.
116  Economy / Gambling / Re: Freebitco gamblin' stream currently live :) on: September 03, 2019, 05:22:43 PM
Make one private version for other site which profile (bet count, profit or loss) can be viewed by the public , once it reach 50 million bets, publish the user name for everyone to verify (or you might just live stream it along with current one). Seeing is believing, once people get it they will join you in Freebitco. This private version might never be published to others since other sites referral income is shitty and might not have good a way to control/ limit the usage of users.

To anyone who interested in, I can confirm that this really work, this dude actually found out something on math & probability studies. I actually made a copy cat bot myself for other site based on understanding his explaination of things (well, surprising that he did not hide but explain the concept inside out)...and it work exactly the same (of course, with less capital needed due to lower house edge), and if you want to see proof, well not yet I am just 40% of 50 million bets count mark (having that much bets is to shut any moron saying that it is just lucky).
117  Economy / Gambling / Re: Freebitco gamblin' stream currently live :) on: August 31, 2019, 04:28:28 AM
Since there is request for you @broke_tradah, i am helping you to "Digout" this thread.
118  Economy / Gambling / Re: BTCDice.io - New dice site, fast rolls, instant withdrawals, invest on: August 30, 2019, 07:59:01 PM
Who is the operator?

The operator asked "who are you?" LOL.
119  Economy / Gambling / Re: BITDICE.me - Crypto Casino 🎰 Now Accepting EOS | Roll Hunt | Bonuses on: August 30, 2019, 07:57:15 PM
~

for me the site work  24/7 fine.
only the bet speed is down from 10 bets/sec to 7 bets/sec since the maintenance (new server)   Cry

Bet speed is an issue for Bitdice to solve, hope they find out the root cause soon.
120  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!! on: August 30, 2019, 07:15:04 AM
Basically it can take years and the bot would seem like its effective when it fact it just didn't have a long enough timeline.

~~Snip Snip... Drone bla bla bla...

Having a house edge, is just how casinos make their money, it is not some kind of scam.  Roll Eyes

~~ Snip Snip... Drone bla bla bla ..continues.

The house edge is the difference between the true odds and the odds that the casino pays you when you win. Casinos does not have to cheat to make money, in the long run, the casino will win on negative expectation games.  Wink

The sole purpose of a house edge is to ensure that gambling site have a long-term advantage over their customers, this is necessary for the continued operation of any casino. If they do not do this, they will make no profit and they will have to close their doors.

So, even if your so-called bot is successful, it would eventually run out of money, because the house always win.  Grin

Drone 1 - Scammer 0 

Half agree here, it would eventually run out of money, but when is it is the question, he managed to run 24/7 for too long and the event did not happened, per my estimation total bets he made is around 150 millions mark (taken from last year mark of his bot ads thread as starting time) and with this count of bets made any matimatical formula should already yield bursted result a few times at least.

Thus to be fair, for 99% of the gamblers (including casino owners, bank roll investors, etc...) they can stick to the concept that is already exist and agaist this kind of thing because it is what it need to be for casinos to exist. For the rest 1% of the gamblers, there is hope that some one win and profit from it and you might learn it to find out your way, thus made up gambling industry. Like me, I don't use the guy bot on my own coins because budget requirement can't meet, thus developed one base on his concept (I manage to understand it as well as the things he said) for few other sites on alts which satisfy my budget (10 bitcoins I don't, but 10 ethers it is a yes) and it work exactly the same thing, which I am currently in process of reaching 30 millions bets mark.
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