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101  Economy / Speculation / Re: IBM to Unveil BTC Blockchain Internet of Things Proof-of-Concept at CES on: November 04, 2014, 06:26:18 PM
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/ibm-unveil-bitcoin-blockchain-internet-of-things-proof-concept-ces-2015/

What this means is we've been grossly underestimating the number of potential users of Bitcoin.  We've restricted it so far only to humans, based on old models of non-digital currency.  That is a huge miscalculation.  Now "things" will own Bitcoins as well, and use them to interact with each other.  The number of "things" in the world is massively larger than the number of people.  In terms of Bitcoin price, this is huge.


ELI5

Basic Examples:

Load a cellphone with BTC and have bits subtracted whenever you text, call, use data etc. This decouples the phone from your personal information and costly legacy payment networks. Push rather than pull billing.

An elderly (or lazy) person's fridge will have the ability to scan bar-codes on objects inside and take a daily inventory of your food. The IoT fridge will automatically order groceries for delivery based on what is needed. The fridge could act as a hardware wallet, paying the delivery person.

Car pays for gas and maintenance when performed, automatically negotiates lowest price with available maintenance shops - Pays parking meters when you pull up to them. You could auction off your parking spot to other cars driving by as you walk to the car. These sorts of things would quickly become more complicated if you need to share personal financial information for each transaction.
102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long term linear trend on: November 04, 2014, 03:46:06 PM
There is usually a lot of speculation that the bitcoin price is exponential. While there are some instances of exponential price rise when there is a self fulfilling feedback loop of excitement over a price rise which brought us the $32, $266 and $1240 prices. If we step back and look over the long term you can see a linear price rise.



I split it in two to show before and after the price halving (and to go from MtGox to BitStamp).



This would indicate that the true price should be around $310 or so right now which would explain the long downtrend.


But there are a few positives from a linear price rise. It is less volatile, it makes sense for a currency and it continues to trend up.

There is also a slight upward rise in the rate of price increase at the halving, which would indicate that in 2016 the rate will tick up a little more at the next halving.

The current price is where the linear price will be in December. If we go down a bit before then, it will probably follow close to the trend.

While an exponential rise is exciting and great if you get out at the top, a linear price rise is good in the long term.

The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

Before the halving the rate was closer to:
P = .5t + 1
t being months from February 2010

With the formula after the next halving:
P = 20.25t + 660
t being months from November 2016

You have described an exponential function..
103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 24, 2014, 06:02:43 PM
From the paper - implies there is no risk of degraded sidechains. Also, that there is no real harm of a SC becoming more used than BTC because the side chain coins are backed by BTC:

---
Furthermore, because sidechains transfer existing assets from the parent chain rather than creating new ones, sidechains cannot cause unauthorised creation of coins, relying instead on the parent chain to maintain the security and scarcity of its assets.

Further still, participants do not need to be as concerned that their holdings are locked in a single experimental altchain, since sidechain coins can be redeemed for an equal number of parent chain coins. This provides an exit strategy, reducing harm from unmaintained software.

On the other hand, because sidechains are still blockchains independent of Bitcoin, they are free to experiment with new transaction designs, trust models, economic models, asset issuance semantics, or cryptographic features. We will explore many of the possibilities for sidechains further in Section 5.

An additional benefit to this infrastructure is that making changes to Bitcoin itself becomes much less pressing: rather than orchestrating a fork which all parties need to agree on and implement in tandem, a new “changed Bitcoin” could be created as a sidechain. If, in the medium term, there
were wide agreement that the new system was an improvement, it may end up seeing significantly more use than Bitcoin. As there are no changes to parent chain consensus rules, everyone can switch in their own time without any of the risks associated with consensus failure.
---
104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 24, 2014, 05:45:11 PM


If you leave to the sidechain, there is a chance the sidechain will explode in your face and take all BTC that have been moved to it it with it.


It will still have to be pegged with bitcoin or else it is a fiat altcoin. So Bitcoin will have not only the same value, but also the ability to magically convert to that SC or any other SC and thus the ultimate arbitrage between SC coins that can bypass exchanges.

^^This is how I understand it - the owner of the scBTC is always in control of the original BTC, it's just locked. A malfunction/default/shutdown of the SC doesn't effect your ability to unlock the original BTC. Correct me if I'm wrong on the following from a technical standpoint:

A SC only references that the original BTC is continually "locked" in the correct way. As soon as it is unlocked the SC asset ceases to exist as well (regardless if the SC network is actively functioning)
105  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 10, 2014, 07:28:46 PM
Incidentally, true redistribution will only be possible IF big lucky aka first adopters hit the panic mode and sell most of their coins. If they never sell, no true redistribution will happen, it will indeed be a fight for scraps for most people that aren't already FIAT rich.

Not really true - early adopters will spend, donate, make bad investments, die etc.

Life is too short, the majority will not horde enough to make a meaningful impact on the ecosystem 25-50 years out
106  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 08, 2014, 07:06:30 PM
...<pantera manipulation theory>...


Maybe you can merge that theory with my OTC-buy theory?



Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

My thoughts were around a pre-agreed contract resolving on that day for the weighted average bitstamp price for the day.. could have been a large bet / futures contract / OTC trade. They wouldn't have been able to secure many coins on Bitstamp  under the $300 wall so idk about the manipulation idea.
107  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] Official Shareholder Discussion Thread [Moderated] on: October 08, 2014, 12:11:13 AM
Good news guys, slightly used Rev1 Hashfast boards for everyone!

We are gonna be rich!
108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 03:57:03 AM
Arbitrage opportunity starting to appear between Stamp/Coinbase and Bitfinex

Anyone who actually has fiat on Stamp could make a few %'s
109  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 01, 2014, 10:27:26 PM
~8 hours until the conference. Anyone here confirmed to be going?

Friedcat
Bwahahahahaha

I almost said "Except FC"

These internets
110  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 01, 2014, 09:56:32 PM
~8 hours until the conference. Anyone here confirmed to be going?
111  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] Official Shareholder Discussion Thread [Moderated] on: June 18, 2014, 10:00:42 PM
All of the Bitcoins in the Mining Address ( https://blockchain.info/address/1DJpsvnM7xTnQbWEhLYyCyfxQyxwupEzCa ) have been sent to  https://blockchain.info/address/16yTynjmSe5bsRGykDaaCL5bm2pxiEfcqP

Possible refunds being given?





aaaaaaand there it goes…
I would venture to guess that we'll never see that money again.
bubye.

Not any more gone than it was before - customers are entitled to that money before investors. Any attempt to steal now will likely land Ken in jail, I doubt he's looking for that.

I assume he is dragging his feet waiting for a rapid rise in BTC price to bail him out of this mess. He could likely repay investors and refunds on a USD basis at anything approaching $1200 BTC.

112  Economy / Securities / Re: Information Sent on: June 17, 2014, 02:23:46 PM
This morning, I just forwarded all the emails between Ken Slaughter and myself from even before I bought shares.
It is a collection of emails which have all the promises (lies) Ken Slaughter told me.
Now, the investigators in Missouri will have them.

Ken, do you or your lawyer read this?  Be an honorable man and liquidate ActM, distribute the mining proceeds you have on Eligius, sell the assets and distribute all that. That is the honorable thing to do.


To everyone else, if you have any emails from Ken, any records of communication with him, please share it with the investigators in Missouri.

Write to scott.johnson@sos.mo.gov and share with him your story, date of investment, total amount of bitcoin invested, number of shares owned, the name of the company, any copies of emails or IRC or PMs with Ken, and a narrative of what you were told about the investment.

Lorenzo Money



It's too bad it's come to this - all could have been avoided if Ken was just more honest and upfront about what was going on. I'll likely be doing the same over the next few weeks. As we see how the MSD action starts to shape

113  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: The Open Source Block Erupter Project on: June 10, 2014, 01:22:00 PM
Amazing work, that is a beautiful product.  You should be applauded for how your efforts will help to distribute the overall network hashrate.

I would also like to second the thank you for increased communication from AM.

Next time anyone complains about GHash.io, I will link them to this project.

Seconded. Keep up the good work.
114  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 03:23:04 PM
This is the best possible outcome - look back at the balance sheet guys. Your div predictions are too low above.


1) On the Balance Sheet, approximately how many chips does the current Inventory (Products + Materials + Masks) represent?
A little less than 60P of wafers, most of which are on their final stages of production. The materials consist mainly of lead frames for packaging. The mask is re-usable for years if there are continuing demands for the corresponding wafers.

12) What is the cash flow ratio between the amount of Chips Fabricated and the percentage of the batch that is dedicated to cost.
There are no orders dedicated to cost in the short time. So it's 1:0.

115  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 12:55:38 PM
How do we know he's a board member?  Sorry but I'm not a very religious person so I need just a little bit more.
Sorry, but this begs the question: how do you know anyone is a board member? 

sign an address attributed to 5000 shares with bitcointalk address
The world does not owe you a favour. You've been informed by a board member that a meeting is taking place tonight. I vouch for him. Take it or leave it.

I was simply answering your question. I wasn't asking or expecting anyone to do it.
116  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 05, 2014, 03:18:41 AM
How do we know he's a board member?  Sorry but I'm not a very religious person so I need just a little bit more.
Sorry, but this begs the question: how do you know anyone is a board member? 

sign an address attributed to 5000 shares with bitcointalk address
117  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: May 30, 2014, 04:14:36 PM
this looks like terrible news

Here comes the buying opportunity - That is a very strong balance sheet, but none of it in cash. That inventory will be converted to cash with little cost. Short sighted investors won't see it this way.

118  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] Official Shareholder Discussion Thread [Moderated] on: May 29, 2014, 07:00:53 PM
Weekly Update: 5/29/2014

Sorry for the late update.  I have been busy working in our DC and taking care of our relationship with hashfast in light of their bankruptcy.

Datacenter:

We are having some problems keeping our AC running, this is why we have not increased the hashrate.  The project manager has now got the AC people working to correct the problem.

AMC:

I will finish the shares transfers as soon as I can.  I expect this to be in the next few days.

VMC:

We are working to build and sell boards to hashfast customers.



Thanks for the update.

Can we please get some back of the envelope numbers for assets and liabilities?

What was the net effect to date of:

eASIC relationship
People's ASIC acquisition
Ken+family salary
DC
Prospector boards
Gold rush boards

What does inventory look like?

Visibility to / confidence of distributing preferential dividend before any additional plow-back?

An effective manager should have all of this information at his fingertips.
119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Predict the price of Bitcoin on 1 April 2015 - win CGB's on: May 20, 2014, 03:50:21 PM
6745
120  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] Official Shareholder Discussion Thread [Moderated] on: May 20, 2014, 02:35:32 AM
Whoahh  Whos snappin up shares!!!


someone's gotta know something   Huh

I'd put money on insider trading - Wednesday might be a good day
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