I don't get caught up in the Tether FUD stories, and I consider Tether to largely be a positive force on bitcoin, bitcoin prices and of course gravitating into various shitcoins, too... but still providing a lot of liquidity in ways that might be more difficult to accomplish in a world without tether - even though bitcoin is still going to do good whether we have tether in this world or not.



Sure Caitlin Long is one of the most vocal about the rehypothication matter, and she is not the only person who is thinking about such tendencies that traditional financial entities have, which is also going to be tempting for many of the bitcoin exchanges and other third-party entities who hold BTC to inflate their values or not have the amount of BTC on hand that they claim to have  (so long as they can get away with it).  Yeah, I might not have solid information, but I am not going to act like these various third parties are going to be responsible and moral when we already know that they have pretty straight forward incentives to cheat so long as they do not get caught with their pants down.  Rehypothication is the most logical conclusion, and has been happening since bitcoin's inception (when the first third-party came into existence), and there is no reason to believe that it all of a suddenly stopped merely because BIG "honest" WALL Street players came into the scene.. Get real.. wall street players are even more likely to engage in shenanigans because they already know how to do it and get away with it... why would we need solid and direct evidence for such in order to have pretty strong senses that the rehypothication is an ongoing issue - until such time that there are meaningful holdings verification mechanisms in place, which currently, there are not.


Yes.  They can show you, but then they can play trickery with that, too.  Of course, BTC HODLers continue to be concerned about these kinds of transparency matters (or should I say lack of transparency?)..... I am hoping that some of them get fucked over BIG time by a BIG ass BTC price move to the upside and they do not have the BTC that they proclaimed to have.   Some of them might learn from that kind of situation, and hopefully not too many innocent regular peeps get burned in such process.

Seems like the various bcash tards, whether bch or bsv deserved to get reckt as fuck... Of course, there are a decent number of them who did retain (and maintain) some amount of hedge with bitcoin, so that hedging (even if covert) may have saved them from total implosion.

By the way, I am not going to write off the pumpability of various shitcoins from time to time in the coming years. Sure, over the longer run, they are quite likely to gravitate towards zero.. but at the same time, some of them are still going to maintain small amounts of value for long periods of time in the vein of zombie status - that is pumped every once in a while because they can... just silly to keep value in any of them, but some peeps are just silly and invest based on hopium and fantasy considerations rather than the boring haul of longer term value investing that sometimes takes a decent amount of time to carry out.. They even have impatience with BTC inspire of the relatively exponential growth that has happened in BTC's price history and the likelihood that BTC is going to continue to retain decent, strong and ongoing upwards growth accompanied by ongoing value gravitation into it.

Of course, we could get manipulation and we could get retracement, and sometimes part of the ploy to get bears to continue to place their shorts in order that they get rekkt when the "inevitable" correction does not come (or at least such retracement is delayed way beyond expectations).

In other words, sometimes volume is not really needed when the trend is your friend and the pressure continues to be UPpity...


Personally, I am not worried, and personally, in these actual times, I have assessed the ongoing BTC price movement to be both moving UP more than expected and also recovering from our dip down to $10,500 from a few days a go.. much better recovery than I expected... but we have seen this over and over and over, in bitcoinlandia.. the price just keeps moving up, up and up, while weak hands sell too much too soon, bears place shorts but the BTC price continues to trickle UPpity...  

Of course, no guarantees for sure in bitcoinlandia.. but you cannot say that we have not been to a similar kind of place before.. and even if we, ourselves, do not bank on UPpity (because we hardly give any shits), we surely do benefit from ongoing UPpity because we already placed our BTC bets years and years ago, and a lot of this ongoing price appreciation is just icing on the cake for so many of us longer term HODLers, rather than any of us really feeling that we either have to sell much if any BTC or that we are worried about catching some kind of short term BTC price top - even if we get a 1-3 month correction, and we have seen plenty of those, with a kind of ongoing "so what?" attitude.


Oh?   This bitcoin thing is starting to make some senses.   

Party poop!!!!!   

That's an innovative way to turn lemon into lemonade.  

I have been thinking similarly... I have been expecting more correction or more flat.. but she seems to be wanting to gravitate UPpity... for some strange reason.  Go figure?


What if I cannot afford a whole bitcoin?  WhatchaIamGONNA dooooo?

Exactly... still waiting for that magnificent bottom that is going to be "inevitable."  We are surely "on track."

Thanks sgbett and other diptwats for these nonsensical bottom calls that have allowed smarter peeps to continue to accumulate BTC over the past few years.

Bitcoin is already successful as fuck.


Sure you can set some measure in the future as do or die or as some kind of meaningful measurement, but who cares?

Bitcoin is still progressing, advancing and adding to network effects.

There are also a lot of ways that bitcoin success can be measured, and surely, I bitcoin is far along the spectrum of making progress whether we measure from two years ago, five years ago, or some other interval short of its 11.5 year to nearly 12 year life (whether we are measuring from the release of the white paper or the first block that was subsequently mined).


Why not both?

I can concede that bitcoin is an experiment, and I can proclaim that with even a current status assessment bitcoin is successful as fuck.. maybe even more successful than what could have been imagined at previous prudently attempting to project forward viewpoints.

Of course, another assessment can be made in 2030 to measure where bitcoin is at... which I can also proclaim is a so fucking what?  We will see it when we see it... bitcoin is already successful and who cares about 2030.. except just make sure that you have some bitcoin in case it catches on (which it already has.. hint.. hint... hint)...   

I will admit that I enjoy harassing any member who shares some of his/her details in this thread, and that is part of the potential disadvantages of sharing information, especially anything that is somewhat specific... ...

Ultimately, any balance is going to be personally tailored (or at least it better be), but if any guy/gal here shares some somewhat specific details within this thread, they are more or less fair game for batting around the plusses and minuses of such planned strategies....  LFC does tend to be a good sport about it, including bearing with some of the repetition that comes through these public discussions... that he partly brings upon himself... 

Actually, there are likely a whole hell of a lot of examples of guys who sold way too many BTC too soon, but they do not tend to be lambasted when they are selling on the way up... and sometimes, the devil is in the details.. and we will have to see how LFC carries this out or if he discloses how he carries it out (even if he shares some of it after he had already done it a month earlier or some other purposefully delayed disclosure, if he chooses to do so).

I share a decent amount of my details too.. .. and I don't mind batting around ideas or disagreements about some of my details... and in a similar light, I don't really feel sorry for anyone who might get beaten up a bit regarding some of their details that they have chosen to disclose..   Many of us likely learn from these kinds of disclosures, and hopefully, the Opsec of members, is not really disclosed in very great details... or we can keep some of the details amorphous enough to facilitate some amounts of plausible deniability along the way.


I am so glad that you remembered me on my very special day... I mean, there are not even enough days in the week for every member to have his/her own very special day, now is there?

I am over-joyed....  cannot hardly contain my level of citteeeeee - keeping small letters for now.. I will play it off...

As long as you are comfortable, ultimately.

Of course, we are going to have to see how it all plays out, and surely I have not been suggesting to NOT take out anything.  Probably closer to my suggestion has been to take out a little bit all along.. especially once accumulation goals are met, then even maintenance can allow for a kind of ongoing removing of value along the way, so with my ONLY speculating about your details (and perhaps kind of having some decent ideas where you are at), I still remain inclined towards emphasizing incrementalism and beating you up about it (of course, just rhetorically) from time to time.  

Of course, in the stage of your life where you are at, finances/age or whatever, you still seem MOAR inclined towards accumulating than me, and I am more on the maintenance end of the spectrum... and I am less shy about various deviations into liquidations, here and there, too... So, surely, I had already made a representation that I had largely "over accumulated" in 2015-ish, so that also causes me less shyness in terms of liquidating a bit here and there.. and if you are not quite in that "over accumulation" phase, then you are going to look at aspects of the whole matter a bit differently from me... but I still will emphasize incrementalism, whether we are talking about you specifically or any other persons who are similarly situated.. which likely are a decent number of similarly-situated members who are actively participating in this thread or merely reading this thread.

Maybe I am a bit envious, too (don't read that as a hater, because I appreciate if some members might be doing better than me in terms of accounting for their age timeline or even other aspects of building their wealth through bitcoin), that you have already reached a kind of financial investment success (even by identifying and getting into bitcoin) that is outperforming any investment that I had been making in my 20s and 30s..? so there is that angle too.  

By the way, each of us recognize that there is a pretty BIG difference between building wealth on paper, and being able to really live it up from the proceeds of the investments that any of us has made by pulling some of the value out of one investment and putting it somewhere else, including having some comfort in holding decent amounts of extra wealth in cash because we have wealth in other areas that are actually working for us... so yeah, pulling out some wealth from bitcoin and putting it into other investments, keeping some in cash and using some on hookers, lambos and blow can all be reasonable steps, also including making other upgrades to the consumption level and standard of living are reasonable steps, too... so surely not meaning to assert those to be potentially prudent and reasonable planning strategies.


infofront (or maybe someone else?  Perhaps?) probably deleted the post, because I did not even see it... .. besides the snipped quote, here.

Edit:  I saw another later post, by the above-referenced dweeb....   Probably his days are numbered in this thread, if he cannot at least figure out some kind of more subtle way to weave-in his shitcoin pumpenings.. but we will see.. maybe he will convince us all to sell our BTC for his shitcoins?  Perhaps?  Anything is possible, almost.

You damned bear.   


Haven't been hearing much about your leveraged trading recently, d_eddie?

You don't got time for that?

Or are you just not sharing with us?

You gave it up for lent?

Hahahaha

If you had happened to be in the area when the building started burning, and all that you had were your two legs for transportation, then you would likely could have gotten a mile away within less than 20 minutes (if you were so out of shape that you could only walk), but just getting 5 football fields away might have been enough, if you were able to take cover (or lie flat on the ground in the middle of a park/or the other side of a building that did not end up falling down) at the time of the explosion, perhaps?

You are not going to be a bit pissed off LFC because you had sold 75%-ish of your stash at around the $75k blow-off top fake out that might come around September/October-ish 2021?  because remember you were planning to buy back lower?  would you second guess that selling 75% might be a bit much at those lower prices, even though it will both bring you a lot of pleasure and it will lock in a lot of profits.. but then you end up missing another 3.5x?  Sure your 25% is still riding, so you would not have missed out everything, even though you are feeling pretty rich as fuck with your 75% cashing out.

Yes... what can we do exactly?

There are always going to be tragic world events and even macro problems, maybe sometimes worse than other times.

I, personally, am not in a rush to get through my life, and I believe that happens somewhat as you become older - while at the same time, we are witnessing 2020 as a kind of transitional year for bitcoin... it seems to be a kind of confirmation of the bull market status...  similar to what 2016 was a kind of confirmation of the bull pattern and similar to how 2015 and 2019 were very similar to one another, even though they did not exactly rhyme because 2019 and a BIG ASS bump in the middle and 2015 did not have that.

I am almost uncomfortable seeing how much the fractal patterns compare to one another, even though the specifics are a bit different, there surely seems to be some inability for the patterns of a lot of human behavior, adoption, network effects developing and expanding out to end up falling into a kind of in-the-ballpark range - sort of what PlanB's stock to flow model anticipates ends up playing into reality.

Who woulda thunk?




Bitcoin has been amazing like that.  You should get a little, in case it catches on.   

People predict all kinds of things.  I find it difficult to understand why so many people want to ascribe ONLY status to themselves... I see this quite a bit.  Maybe I am too sensitive?  Perhaps?


Exactamente!!!!

There are just too many things happening to be saying that you know all the variables, beyond getting lucky or maybe having a lot of the variables right and having a pretty decent sense of probabilities (but likely still getting matters wrong on a regular basis in terms of direction, degree or both.. or just don't specify too much in order to always be right.. there's that, too). 

Of course, that is the million dollar question.

Personally, I believe that we are easily within striking distance of returning to 4 digits before we surpass $13,880 - but once we surpass $13,880 it wlll become less likely to return to 4 digits.

Also, if we surpass $17,250 without returning to 4 digits, then it becomes even a farther away likelihood that 4 digits will ever be witnessed again.

Sure, you say that it is inevitable, but your assignment of "inevitability" seems to be too high of an assignment of probabilities because there are very few things that are guaranteed in BTC prices within bitcoinlandia (except perhaps the price that we currently are at, while we are at it).



Agree.  All important factors.


There seems to be increased fractional reserve and/or rehypothecation going on in bitcoin too, which could end up having some explosive effects on BTC price... NOT for sure, but possible.

Probably, I should NOT have appeared to challenge your seeming insightfulness.



#Justnotsaying.

One of the significant steps towards actual sorcerer status is passing through sorcery wannabe status first.   

I have been becoming such a quibbler in recent times... but there seems to be a theory that past points of resistance will continue to serve as future points of resistance, even though the degree of their resistance may or may have not been changed based on subsequent BTC price moves...

So we had $12,100-ish.. and then we get $13,880-ish.....

What I am saying is that both of you are picking numbers that are really in the middle of those other seemingly more logical numbers, which just seem like the two of you are picking random and "awkward" numbers rather than numbers that would logically have much if any meaning - beyond mere luck or randomness, amiNOTrite?  this time?


I have an awkward feeling, like this:




Exactly!!!!!

It's awkward as fuck.   

 

Yes, you did.

Rationale = random.  




 


Potential next resistance point seems to be $13,880 - but geez, timeline must be one of the BIGGER difficult matters to pinpoint

... and geez, end of the week you are saying, LFC?  You must be talking about just a wee bit more than two days from now?  Perhaps it could happen?  Perhaps.  

I would concede that $13k is significantly easier to reach and exceed than $14k currently, and not merely because $13k is closer than $14k (but that closeness is an undeniable, real-world, technical factor) but because $14k can only be reached after going through $13,880 resistance, to the extent that such resistance really does exist and such resistance is not merely a product of our collective perhaps, shell
shocked/PTSD? fears.

In other words:  go bitcoin go (doesn't someone else say that?)