I had heard that the NY attorney general's settlement with Genesis from right around the same time of the announcement of Sonnenshein's resignation might have also had some potential connection to the whole matter, and yeah there could be a variety of explanations (and considerations) that are not necessarily made public.. that may or may not end up coming out of the woodwork at some later date.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/new-york-ag-announces-2-billion-settlement-with-crypto-lender-genesis.html

We are also back to an idea regarding the potentially lowest number of days to get all of the 2021 dates pushed off of the table, and surely today is under the belt, which would leave us with another 72 days to get the final 2021 date off of the table.. again staying above $67,483, which surely our odds are going to be similar to what I had mentioned previously when I entered the bet with tertius993 - so surely the odds could not be any worse than they were previously.. in the 10% to 20% territory that the weight traded daily average will not go below $67,483 in the next 72 days (after today).

So maybe in other words "we are back," yet at the same time, I don't claim to be a great enough analyzer of the technicals to really consider how much odds might be better or worse than they had been earlier in terms of experiencing a streak, such as 72 days, in which sub $67,483 is not reached therein... yet as I mentioned 10% to 20% seems to still be roughly in the ballpark of reasonable.

Funny that some folks describe an "open mind" with an off-topic distraction. 


Who cares?  #justsaying

Yes.. that is a fairly good point to highlight I_Anime.. so in the beginning if a newbie investor tries to be be a bit aggressive or even a bit overly aggressive in his investment into bitcoin, he might feel good for a while, but he is not going to be in a very good position if by surprise he finds out that he was actually too aggressive or even that he had put himself into a kind of emergency status because of his over aggressiveness.

So many times people will suggest that getting into an investment is better to error a bit on the side of some level of conservativeness which means less aggressive and perhaps even a bit whimpy until you get used to the fact that you are trying to set up a system in which you will never ever need to dip into your bitcoin investment before a time of your completely own choosing, which surely may well be 4-10 years or longer.

If people are not used to investing, by fault they might become a bit overly aggressive in terms of considering that some or all of their bitcoin could serve as a kind of emergency fund in the event that mistakes are made, yet surely that is not a very good way to invest into something as volatile as bitcoin.. so if the thoughts are that none of the funds that are invested into bitcoin can be touched for 4-10 years or longer, then that kind of a mental framework might be helpful in terms of investing a bit less into bitcoin while building the various other systems of emergency funds, reserves and float, and surely once those are decently in place and have been practiced for a while, there may well end up being abilities to become more aggressive with the disposable income that is then coming in, than would have otherwise been possible without having those various systems in place and without having some periods of practicing your systems and getting good feels for where the boundaries are.


Surely having a computer and being able to use various computer programs, such as excel, can be very powerful in terms of helping you to get to higher levels of analysis in terms of manipulating your data and/or changing some of the variables to be able to project forward in a variety of ways.

Surely you can also do several of the same functions with paper and pencil and maybe even some of the ideas might make more sense when they are on paper and even spread them out and look at your various notes in which some of them you might update regularly and others you might use to model out and/or get better understandings. 

There is always going to be some possibility that bitcoin goes down instead of up and also that it might go to zero, so we should not consider those kinds of going to zero scenarios to be completely outside of the range of possibilities. 

Regarding your second point about bitcoin affordability and availability to poor people.  I surely hope that bitcoin is always available to everyone and anyone, including poor people, and yeah sure, it is likely that the longer that bitcoin exists, the fewer bitcoin you will be able to buy with the same quantity of dollars.. so that does not mean bitcoin is not available, but instead that fewer satoshis can be bought with the same amount as could be bought earlier.. so even now, as I type this post, we can buy in the ballpark of 1,426 satoshis for a dollar, and someday in the potentially near future we might ONLY be able to buy a few satoshis for a dollar.. so yeah, the amount of satoshis that we get for the dollar is likely going to continue to go down, so if we have already stacked millions or even 100s of millions of satoshis and we are able to continue to stack them and perhaps not lose them then we are likely going to be advantaged over the folks who are going to be brand new to bitcoin in the coming years, whether that is 4-10 years or longer, and whether they have a lot of money to get started or if they stack over the years, there can be differences in the situations including likely advantages of starting out in the stacking and maintaining of bitcoin journey earlier rather than later.

Can you keep it up?  That's the thing. 

Members proclaim how easy it is to do pushups after getting used to it, and sure there is some truth to it.. especially comparing now to earlier, and even some of my slow pushups I would have had never been able to do as many and as slow as I sometimes am able to do them, yet I continue to struggle..

Surely I thought it would be easier to cut down to 200 per day.. once I got my average at that rate... since my average had gotten up to that amount.. and I had been doing way more pushups per day and per set in order to get the daily average up to 200...

And, so yeah, currently, I am not pushing myself for high quantities every single set, so there is some refreshedness with those lesser pressures.. but it still hurts.. and also, if I fall behind on the quantity of my daily pushups or even if I were to miss a set or two in a day, it is not an overly high amount of pushups to have to make up, so I should be able to catch back up by doing sets of 5 and perhaps doing 50 or more per set.. and then it should end up being the case that I would end up catching up within a few days of experiencing the deficit..


I don't known.

Reading and writing about them in this thread does frequently motivate several of us in terms of actually doing them, so maybe we might get one or two more sets in, since we are planning on submitting our report, but we might feel that we need to finish all of the sets of the day prior to submitting the report.


Yes, no pushups may seem that it is working just fine and dandy, until a bit of gush of wind comes along and blows your little skinny coffee-drinking feather-ass away.   

hahahahahaha


All fine and dandy, Briankimp1  - except you have to figure out how to quote properly.


Actually I believe that saw what you did.. There was a "/" missing from one of your end quotes.. which turns it into a front quote.

You must be new here..


Fuck shitcoins.

The tail does not wag the dog.

In udder words:  Don't you know nuttin?




Oh no?  Contagion is taking place.  


This is what happens when shitcoin talk is allowed - even by one IOTA...

Pretty soon everyone is talking about shitcoins.


I like the nice little addition of the circle thingie.. whether it is a moon? or a sun?  or some other circle/global object.  Nice..


Not on Bitstamp.

Our local high on Bitstamp, so far, has been $71,958.  So the last time I checked that number is not $72k nor higher than $72k.  #just saying  

By definition, in order to get into the top 10, there is ONLY a need to stay over $70,012 for most of the day (or at least most of the volume).

Staying above $70.4 will put the daily weighted trade price into the top 8, if not higher.

Ok.  Sure.  I will take credit.

Averaging less than 10 pushups per day, you are OUT OF HERE.... That is my preference, and of course, it is not like I am in charge of anything.. just stating my preference and just stating what I believe to be a fair cut-off.


Ooooo.. .... 

Nice round number for a nice round day...

100 days..

10k pushups..


You do what you like.

Every member in the table had either submitted a proper report or another member submitted it for them.  It does not seem to difficult.  All you need to do is to put in your particulars.  The number of days doing pushups and the total number of pushups.. Those are the two main substantive numbers that go into your report.. and yeah sure, the other parts are important too, but does not seem too difficult to figure it out, and if you cannot do it, then I suppose Darwin's survival of the fittest applies in terms of which forum members end up having their user names included in the table. 

---

100k,JayJuanGee,106,21204,2024-05-20

I agree with your point about anyone can argue or debate with whomever they want.

Regarding your question about the idea of "initial capital," you can call your investment into bitcoin whatever you like, and if you are calling it disposable/discretionary income or you are calling it capital, it comes off as a bit strange if someone has an income of $500 per month and expenses of $400 per month, and they are putting $10 per week into bitcoin.  Difficult (and seemingly misleading to me) to call that $10 per week initial capital, but you can call it whatever  you like.

Part of my point, and many guys here seem to "get it" is that if you are starting to invest into bitcoin, and the only thing that you have is some quantity of disposable/discretionary income that you are investing into bitcoin, then likely you are converting your disposable income into capital, especially after many years of investing into bitcoin, but part of the fact that you don't really have any extra money (except your disposable/discretionary income, it is seems strange and misleading to be calling that capital, even if it might later add up in such a way that the "capital" label will start to make more sense.

The percentage of allocation can quite vary depending on individual circumstances, including questions about whether you have other investments, and surely if you are starting your first investment with bitcoin, then all that you are going to have is bitcoin and dollars, but if you are starting your investment with an already existing diversified portfolio (referring to traditional assets, not shitcoins), then you may well consider an initial target of 5% to 25% in bitcoin would be a good target.. for example, a guy who might come into bitcoin and already have $50k invested in index stocks or something like that... then he might consider an initial target of 5% to 25% in bitcoin would be something like $2,500 to $12,500 - but then if his allocation in bitcoin grows based on bitcoin growing rather than his putting more into bitcoin, then he may well consider how to treat that growth and whether it is worth it to allocate in other assets or just grow his bitcoin portion until it reaches some kind of a meaningful size..

so if his annual income/expenses might be in the ballpark of $40k per year, then maybe he is going to want to get his bitcoin holdings up to 1 or 2 years of his annual income/expenses prior to considering any kind of need to diversify into other assets.

For sure, these are not easy choices, but there are likely folks who might already have various kinds of traditional investments who decide to ONLY focus on bitcoin in terms of their new accumulations of investments, even though they surely might let their traditional investments ride.

Another problem is that some western countries have is the existence of 401k-like products, which are both tax free but also those products might have employer matching contributions, and so with those folks, they may be tempted to invest into those 401k-like products, and they might not even have a lot (if any) discretionary income remaining after they had already allocated to those 401k-like products (and which products are ONLY recently potentially getting bitcoin ETFs as one of the allocation options within them).

But, yeah, folks who do not have any of those employer and/or government-sponsored products, they may well come to investing and they may well start investing into bitcoin, and bitcoin is largely their only investment, so they are merely diversifying (or slightly de-risking) the amount of their BTC exposure by figuring out how much cash to keep.. so they are largely just BTC and cash, so they may well end up having 70% to 90% in BTC and the other part in cash and/or various kinds of cash alternatives (again not necessarily referring to shitcoins - even though some folks in poorer countries might not have a lot of investment options outside of the "crypto" space)....

..so then if the holdings in the overall investment portfolio are mostly just bitcoin and cash or cash equivalents, then at some point - maybe after 1-2 years worth of income and/or expenses is starting to build up into the BTC /cash holdings.. there may well be some concerns that the cash portions are not working enough.. so even though BTC is quite volatile, the BTC portion might still be considered as "working" so there may well. be some desires to have more of the cash portions to be working also, which in some senses justifies the concept of diversification into a variety of other assets.. maybe adding one new asset at a time ever year or every few years.. .... or there might be some other considerations that a person might have based on the investment options that he considers to be available to him.. and hopefully no more than 10% of the value of bitcoin will go into any shitcoins.. even though people have to make those kinds of choices for themselves based on their perceptions of options... and if they might consider whether they are able to invest in stocks, property, commodities, bonds or other forms of cash/cash equivalents.

Oh gawd Philip.   

You have collected a lot of junk over the years..

And, failed/refused to accumulate enough bitcoin (which is not junk).. hahahahahaha   #justsaying


Who would-a-thunk?

Go from one problem.. to another problem of not having your earlier problem, which is a problem in and of itself.

Yeah.. let's practice the beginning of a draft "form letter":

"It has come to our attention that......"


hahahahaha


Who is "our?"

Our = "me and my bot" = DirtyKeyboard and his pushups script

I don't have any problem with arguing if some kind of a meaningful point was being made, and of course, any of us can be wrong or phrase things badly, so the back and forth will sometimes clarify areas in which we might differ, including if we don't agree.

One of the difficulties of making a kind of absolute assertion such as the one that Reredmi896 was making is that he is not completely wrong - except that he expressed the need for capital as an absolute, and then even after I gave him a specific example in which his absolute was not correct, he still continued to insist that there is a need for capital to invest into bitcoin.

So maybe I am criticizing him more for his ongoing arguing about a wrong point rather than proclaiming that he should not be arguing.. yet we have the problem of both being wrong and then arguing about it, even after being shown specifically how the point that he was making was wrong.

It is difficult to take guys like that seriously, but yeah, let's see if he comes back and continues to try to argue that same point or if there might be some kind of a clarification that he is able to make.. or maybe he might just admit that there are cases in which what he said is wrong.


I largely agree with you.  Newbies have the right to argue about whatever they like, and it is even better if they are able to back up their points with facts, logic and/or reasonable conclusions.. and even opinions that may or may not be well expressed..

And, yeah, sometimes it will take quite a bit of back and forth battling before any of us might figure out if there are good or bad arguments being made.... At  the same time, some of the longer term forum members might be bad with their own ways of expressing themselves, including but not limited to yours truly.. and it can be quite good that another member point out those weaknesses, illogicalities, confusing areas and/or other substantive and/or style problems.


I usually don't get upset in regards to posts, and so far I have not considered myself to be upset in our back and forth discussion of these matters.


Sure BTC accumulators (investors) can overdo their ongoing allocation and then have regrets when the BTC price drops, but they can also under do and have regrets when the price rises.


There still was a reason that I gave those examples in the first place, and it had to do with a claim that you made regarding people being able to invest in ways that they would not be sacrificing anything, so that's most likely the reason I gave the examples in the first place, and so we may well be making various different points, and some of the main points might have had gotten lost in the whole process, to the extent that any of it matters in the first place... which my main reasons for responding to the first of your posts in this series of discussions was that I was claiming that almost no matter how much a person invests, whether it is $10 per month or $1k per week, there is going to be sacrifices in the present for the future, and yeah, sure we can imagine really extreme examples where nothing is missed, and those would most likely happen to be whimpy investors.. but yeah, whatever, all of these details and examples might mot even be that important, if we are losing the context (or reasons) regarding why they were brought up in the first place.

Personally, I believe that it is fair to exclude pushers whose reported pushups do not  calculate to an average of at least 10 pushups per day.

Yet, I am not too excited about any new requirement that pushup reports have to be ongoing in order to be required.  In other words, I see no problem with a person ONLY reporting once or twice and then no longer reporting.. both including their name in the table and also including their results in the total.  It seems more problematic if you have some hidden substantive numbers that are adding to the report, but the data is not in the table so that someone might be able to manually calculate and check from the table if the totals add up.

To clarify.. the last couple of posts in this thread caused me a bit of confusion, since it seems that when I opened this thread in October 2015, I was just getting used to figuring out ways that I could sell bitcoin as the price went up and then buy back as the price went down, and attempting to do so without hardly paying any fees, yet also it seems that over the years, I slowly got involved in putting my BTC on various exchanges so that I could set limited orders (both on the buy side and on the sell side), and I became somewhat less concerned about the fees - since many places seemed to have some level of fee, and I also learned to build in any kind of spread to make sure that if I either bought or sold it would account for any fees that might exist...

In several senses, this topic likely has outgrown itself, especially since today's options seem to be quite different from when I was inquiring about it, and probably there are threads that are better tailored and including members (or OPs) who are more engaged with the reason that they created the thread in the first place - which for me, I seem to be in quite a bit of a different place, so in that regard, it seems best to lock this thread - which I am going to do - and if any member feels that there is some last word that they need to put in this particular thread, then contact me by PM to let me know what that might be..

Both in regards to the topic and in regards to what you are doing, you are speaking a bit vaguely AVE5. 

First off, your mentioning of "crypto" is like meaningless gobbledy-gook, especially since in this thread I am specifically aiming at various ideas that are specifically focused on bitcoin, and a lot of the ideas of the posts of this particular thread attempt to deal with situations in which a bitcoin holder may well have already gotten through a lot of his earliest of accumulation stages, yet I have another thread in which I attempt to address bitcoin investment ideas more generally.

Second, you seem to be suggesting that you are still working on your own accumulation of bitcoin and/or figuring out how bitcoin fits into your overall investment portfolio, and surely there is nothing wrong with that, since I tend to presume that it may well take 4-10 years or longer for anyone to really build their investment portfolio - unless they might already be an experience investor who is reallocating portions of an already existing investment portfolio in order to add bitcoin exposure (or perhaps increase bitcoin exposure).

So yeah figuring out an allocation to bitcoin could be something like 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio to be allocated into bitcoin, but surely if you are more of a beginner in terms of building your investment portfolio, you may well be considering ways to accumulate bitcoin that revolve around 1) dollar cost averaging, 2) lump sum investing and/or 3) buying on dips. I am also not much into trading and/or selling bitcoin in an attempt to accumulate more, which gets us back to the topic of this here particular thread presuming that if you are considering either maintenance and/or various forms of sustainable withdrawal, then you have already spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC.

You seem to be making slightly different points, but surely there is nothing completely unfair about proclaiming that keeping a certain amount on exchanges is going to increase likelihoods of losing coins through hacks and/or other potential problems with my system of selling on the way up in incremental ways and buying back if the BTC price happens to drop.

It is not easy to measure alternative scenarios, since part of my way of getting to a point of feeling comfortable with overallocating into bitcoin was based on my system in which I could sell on the way up and still feel accepting of it.. so for example, if my BTC allocation ended up at around 13.5% of my total quasi-liquid investment portfolio in late 2015, even though I got hacked from more than 25% of my BTC holdings in early 2017, the BTC price went up so much in early 2015, that the "on paper" loss in terms of dollar value barely showed up as one month's loss, and yeah, sure the value of the BTC holdings could have had been way further up, but still the whole matter ended up working up o.k.. .and really hard to say I should have done x, y and/or z better, even though my hacking incident (which was largely a sim swap) did teach me a few lessons regarding some of the security measures that I was taking, including where and how I was holding my coins, so for example instead of having high percentages of my BTC holdings on various exchanges and third parties (including that I am pretty sure that at the time, I had erroneously presumed that having 10 different locations was giving me a decent amount of security by having the coins spread out like that.. so yeah.. lessons were learned.. but still I doubt that completely removing oneself from attempts to interact and learn about various bitcoin systems would have had been the answer for me, if that is what you are suggesting)

Another thing regarding the purposeful management of your BTC holdings in such a way to shave off 25% or more of them all at once, versus making some errors in which the 25% or more are taken from you, seem to be related but still a bit different issues.

I have frequently made the point that most likely I would not have been able to come even close to as staunch of a bitcoin holder if I had not created systems of shaving BTC profits on the way up (also known as raking strategies), so it seems a bit misplaced to imply (or even subtly argue, if that is what you might be doing?) that a preferred and better practice for someone like me should have had been to completely keep my BTC in cold storage rather than the various interactive practices that I have employed and advocated over the years.

Surely I will acknowledge that many of us might not even realize how much risk (and the kinds of risks) we are taking by employing various third party services, and so yeah, I had ended up cutting down quite a bit over they years in terms of how much coin I am keeping with third parties, and probably prior to early 2017 I had more than 50% of my BTC being held through various third parties without realizing how vulnerable they were.. and maybe even partly due to my not looking into something like paper wallets or other ways to privately hold BTC, even though the Trezor and some other hardware wallets were already available at that time.. and some even question the security of some of these hardware wallets in terms of their claims to safely cold-storing bitcoin... so sometimes some of us might not completely disclose how we are holding our coins, either... ..

but let me say that by late 2017, I had figure out a few things, so then my exposure on various 3rd party services had gone down to around 20% of the value of my overall BTC holdings, and probably by 2020-ish it was around 12% and probably by early 2022 it was around 8-9%, and in recent times, it probably mostly fluctuates between 3-5% of the size of my total bitcoin holdings, and some of that relates to the amounts of dollars and/or USDT that also might be there.. .and yeah.. does that money even count and is it subjected to freezing and/or rug pulls and other problems.. yes it is, but if no one used exchanges, then what would happen with BTC and/or price discovery?  Maybe I am helping out you scaredy cats who might not even know how to move your BTC or maybe you have no relationships with any exchanges, so yeah, there are taxes too.. but is there enough of a circular economy that you can buy your ranch with BTC or various other hooker, lambos and blow expenses.. .. sure maybe you have those circles set up, but there can be quite a bit of variance in terms of circular economy possibilities from region to region, and I am surely not against those kinds practices, since I also attempt to make sure to support those kinds of possibilities when I see them in terms of traveling, but still there are a lot of places that have hardly shit for abilities to transact in bitcoin and sometimes even difficulties finding folks to hook up with in various local communities in certain regions... so going through some kind of exchange might be a kind of solution that might not be the be all end all or the best.

Each of us still are likely making these kinds of balances, and I am not sure if there is any one right system, even though surely there can be ways in which any of us might tweak what we are doing in order to attempt to account for changes in the space, even some jurisdictions become more open about bitcoin and other jurisdictions become more draconian - and how are we going to know?  Some folks source a lot or all of their BTC in KYC free ways, and others might have combinations of KYC and KYC free bitcoin, but then if they are managing their stashes in sloppy way, they may well lose track of which is which, too... and sometimes they might not even realize certain mistakes that they might have had made in terms of their stashes, including choices to use various kinds of mixing services or coin joining services and then surely there can be some forms of transacting that might contribute towards plausible deniability in regards to from who any of us might be wanting to either have privacy and/or security.


Hahahahahaha

I like that presentation, homer.

It is kind of like a process of elimination, yet in the end, even if none of the choices come off as reasonably plausible or acceptable, you ended up having to choose from the least of the worse possibilities.

Fair enough points, and there are likely plenty of us longer term BTC holders who may have learned a few lessons along the way, including that getting through the first cycle or so may well be quite challenging, including that unless you are able to front load your BTC investment, it could take you more than a whole cycle just to get to a point in which you might start to feel that you have accumulated enough BTC, so you may well not ONLY hold through various breaks of support or resistance, but you may well continue to buy no matter which side of the range the BTC price might happen to be... so then in that regard, there may well be questions about how much bitcoin is enough and is there going to be any advantages in terms of selling at any point in the first 4-6 years if you might have had determined that you don't quite have enough BTC.. so then the ongoing better (and assured) of ways to get more bitcoin is just to continue to buy as long as you have money and perhaps to hold during points that you are running out of money, and if you have cashflow coming from other sources, to just try to continue to figure out how much of your cash flow you are able to use in order to continue to buy more bitcoin.

Again, there may or may not be abilities to front load your BTC investment, but even if there is, it could take a whole cycle and maybe two cycles to start to feel comfortable in terms of having enough BTC... and there are even several guys here who are kind of on the border of those kinds of assessments (surely from their own perspective regarding how many BTC they believe that they need)... so HODL and continue to buy for the longer term investors.. and at some point it might start to become more clear that you have enough BTC to be able to pretty much sell BTC any time that you want, but you still might choose to sell in strategic ways rather than selling all the time or even selling big chunks at a time, which may well NOT be necessary... including (back to LFC's issue and tentative plan) whether selling 25% in any particular cycle is a good thing or not - and surely there might be some reasonable prudence built into such a strategy, even though it sounds like a lot to sell in one cycle. for some of us.. especially since there seems to be some built in expectations of being able to buy back cheaper.. which may or may not end up happening... and would such a person still be accepting of the fact that he sold 25% of his stash at a price that might end up NOT being even close to a high for that cycle.

Personally, I think that it is better to have a somewhat tentative plan in advance so that you sell on the way up rather than selling on the way down.. yet, I also know that sometimes with the varying personal tradeoffs in regards to how to do accomplish it, it can be easier said than done... . even though I surely buy into the raking approach, but I have been too whimpy so far to even attempt anything close to 25%, which might not be a bad idea.. but I am not unhappy with what I have been doing either.. Maybe I could consider some kind of a compromise.. like 12.5%?  So yeah, maybe I am in a similar boat as you, even though I don't really feel any burning need to sell more than I already do in my already existing system.


First of all, you are talking about support and not resistance, so I FTFY

Second, there is nothing really wrong with your proclamation, even though you don't really give very many claim specifics beyond that we are not going below $50k again absent some kind of a black swan event.. .. .. which is not an outrageous proclamation..   

A few months ago, I made a claim that I would be willing to bet (so I consider the odds to be greater than 50/50) that we would not come within 20% of the 200-WMA before the end of 2025.,. and sure currently the 200-WMA is moving up at about $42 per day and currently it is at $34,726-ish.  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy