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10181  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 28, 2012, 06:19:40 PM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?

Then no cookies for you!  Tongue

What if the profits are:
  10k at the end of September
  9k at the end of November
  10k at the end of December

There's no dividend at the end of November, but what about at the end of December?  Is that counted as a 1k profit on the month?  Because that 1k profit was already paid out at the end of September - the site hasn't really made a new profit, it's just recovered its November loss.
10182  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 28, 2012, 06:12:03 PM
Dividend = (Oct 1  Profit after fees - Sept 1 Profit after fees) / 10

What happens if that number is negative?
10183  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: September 28, 2012, 06:07:45 PM
Can you develop an alternative game where the I can win what I actually rolled? for example, I rolled a 18, but my bet was on lessthan 64000, so I missed out on a potentially big payout. In this alternative game, if I roll a 16, then I get paid the 1998.853x multiplier or whatever multiplier that would be mathematically correct. I'd like to play this style.

If they paid 64000x for every zero, 31981.573x for every 1, etc. using the current payouts, the expected return per 1 BTC bet would be 9.3 BTC.

So to make a game with a small positive (1.9%) expectation for the house, but with the same proportions of the payouts, we need to scale the current multipliers back by 9.3 / 0.981.  I left the 'losing' return at 0.005, and slightly adjusted the 3rd decimal place of the payouts to make it work.  Then we get:

Code:
lessthan 1	6750.942x
lessthan 2 3373.527x
lessthan 4 1686.764x
lessthan 8 843.382x
lessthan 16 421.691x
lessthan 32 210.846x
lessthan 64 105.423x
lessthan 128   52.712x
lessthan 256   26.356x
lessthan 512   13.178x
lessthan 1000    6.747x
lessthan 1500    4.498x
lessthan 2000    3.374x
lessthan 3000    2.249x
lessthan 4000    1.687x
lessthan 6000    1.125x
lessthan 8000    0.844x
lessthan 12000    0.563x
lessthan 16000    0.422x
lessthan 24000    0.282x
lessthan 32000    0.211x
lessthan 32768    0.206x
lessthan 48000    0.141x
lessthan 52000    0.130x
lessthan 56000    0.121x
lessthan 60000    0.113x
lessthan 64000    0.106x
64000 or more    0.005x

Which gives pretty much the correct house edge:

Code:
>>> (
     1 * 6750.942 +
     1 * 3373.527 +
     2 * 1686.764 +
     4 *  843.382 +
     8 *  421.691 +
    16 *  210.846 +
    32 *  105.423 +
    64 *   52.712 +
   128 *   26.356 +
   256 *   13.178 +
   488 *    6.747 +
   500 *    4.498 +
   500 *    3.374 +
  1000 *    2.249 +
  1000 *    1.687 +
  2000 *    1.125 +
  2000 *    0.844 +
  4000 *    0.563 +
  4000 *    0.422 +
  8000 *    0.282 +
  8000 *    0.211 +
   768 *    0.206 +
 15232 *    0.141 +
  4000 *    0.130 +
  4000 *    0.121 +
  4000 *    0.113 +
  4000 *    0.106 +
  1536 *    0.005) / 65536

0.9810327911376953

Would people be willing to play a game where you need to roll less than 6000 to 'win'?  It means that less than one ticket in ten is a winning ticket.
10184  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: Starfish BCB - Loans and Deposits on: September 27, 2012, 11:49:05 PM
Are you still paying interest on outstanding balances?  If so, how often?

He quite literally just answered this question:

I saw that answer, but I've not been getting interest.  Hence my question.
10185  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: Starfish BCB - Loans and Deposits on: September 27, 2012, 11:15:11 PM
Currently processing payments (and waiting for some confirms) -both the scheduled interest and withdrawal requests.  I am also repaying several small accounts (less than 10 coins).  Balance table will updated shortly (done).

Are you still paying interest on outstanding balances?  If so, how often?
10186  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: Dank Bank Deposits - low risk, dank soul guarantee - 1.5%-2.5% weekly on: September 27, 2012, 10:24:00 PM
Can you sing, there's not much use for a guitar player who can't, I'd like to hear your singing voice.

You know those American reality TV shows where members of the general public audition to become a famous pop star, or some such, and half of the contestants that make it onto the show are only there because they're so bad it's entertaining, but they don't realise it, and everyone's laughing at their expense?

I don't like those shows.  They seem popular though.
10187  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin - The First Five Questions on: September 27, 2012, 10:21:01 PM
how about

  • negligible transaction fees
  • near-instant transactions

?

Those were points 1 and 2:

Quote
Advantages include:

1. Zero fee to transfer money

2. Transfers are instant. No holiday or weekend delays.

Oh, but you mean they're not actually zero or instant...  Well, you can chose to pay zero fees if you like.  It just might take a very long time for your transaction to get into a block.
10188  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin - The First Five Questions on: September 27, 2012, 08:59:37 PM
Finished reading it now.  Thanks for posting it - it's a great introduction.

One final comment: you seem to be inconsistent with your capitalisation of 'bitcoin'.  There's a post here:
  http://meta.bitcoin.stackexchange.com/a/22/659
which proposes one consistent way of capitalising.

Quote
Use Bitcoin (with a capital "B") when talking about the concept/technology.
Use bitcoins (no capitalization) when talking about the unit of currency (4 dollars - 4 bitcoins).

Here's an example of the problem from the post - there are lots more:
Quote
What is bitcoin?
[...]
How extensively is Bitcoin used?
10189  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin - The First Five Questions on: September 27, 2012, 08:51:34 PM
Posted this on our blog so that others can refer people to it - it's another "overview" of what Bitcoin is, but formatted as "The First Five Questions" everyone is bound to have. This is particularly useful for any journalists who are starting to research Bitcoin.

This bit confused me, and will probably confuse a newcomer too:

Quote
Several million dollars worth are transferred per day, but it is impossible to know for what purpose. In the last 24 hours, about 30,000 transactions occurred, or over one thousand transactions per hour. Since Bitcoins are exchanged back and forth with standard government currencies, the volume of this trading is about $100,000-$500,000 worth per day.

You seem to be giving two contradictory values for the same thing.  Is it several million or half a million per day?

Maybe you're saying the half million number is the amount traded on exchanges, whereas the bigger numbers is on the blockchain.  If so, the "Since ..." bit could stand clarification.  Maybe give the two numbers as "bitcoins transferred" and "bitcoins exchanged for government currencies" per day.
10190  Economy / Gambling / Re: OneVillain.com Heads-Up Poker; 1% rake, Two 10BTC Freerolls this Sunday on: September 27, 2012, 08:37:36 PM
What's your policy on two players playing from the same IP address?

Some places (e.g. Seals) are OK with it, most places ban it in the client.

I don't want to get into trouble if it's the case that your policy prohibits it but your software allows it...
We allow it, no worries.  I don't know what your wife's policy is though, if you win a lot of bitcoins from her maybe you could get into trouble that way.

Since collusion isn't possible playing Heads-Up, there's no harm that can be done, so we leave it open for friends and roommates and husbands/wives etc. to play against each other.

Her policy seems to be that she gets half of anything I win.  And I get - no, wait, that's all.

I had a dream last night that I was playing a hold'em hand.  All 5 community cards and all 20 player hole cards were the same suit.  It didn't strike me as odd at the time that there were 25 cards of the same suit.  I forgot about it until I started playing on OneVillian today.  On my first hand I flopped a flush and it all came back to me. Smiley
10191  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 27, 2012, 07:39:47 PM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-27 12:25pm (up to block 200794)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    22038 |      0 (0.00000) |  21668 |     370 |     193.09 |       0.01 |    32.86 |    193.07 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1800 |      0 (0.00000) |   1726 |      74 |      25.48 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2391 |      0 (0.00000) |   2353 |      38 |      30.22 |       0.02 |     4.42 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2541 |      1 (0.00040) |   2496 |      44 |      53.82 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.990
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5521 |      3 (0.00054) |   5506 |      12 |     381.27 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.94 |  79.556
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7918 |      8 (0.00101) |   7888 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.62 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10060 |     19 (0.00190) |   9985 |      56 |    1598.70 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.05 |  79.730
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15604 |    118 (0.00757) |  15476 |      10 |    2662.04 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    639.71 |  75.969
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30943 |    460 (0.01487) |  30471 |      12 |    8474.45 |    7706.04 |     1.80 |    768.40 |  90.933
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15147 |    347 (0.02292) |  14794 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22794 |    705 (0.03093) |  22085 |       4 |    5487.25 |    4647.79 |     9.24 |    839.45 |  84.702
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15377 |    709 (0.04613) |  14660 |       8 |    6796.45 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.43 | 118.693
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15926 |    988 (0.06205) |  14934 |       4 |    4649.01 |    4128.14 |    31.20 |    520.86 |  88.796
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21219 |   1981 (0.09344) |  19220 |      18 |   10121.29 |   10076.76 |     7.01 |     44.52 |  99.560
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    85331 |  10496 (0.12304) |  74812 |      23 |   10374.07 |    8954.39 |     0.00 |   1419.68 |  86.315
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21286 |   3985 (0.18733) |  17288 |      13 |    8364.71 |    8623.19 |    14.50 |   -258.48 | 103.090
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84576 |  20576 (0.24335) |  63977 |      23 |   50418.10 |   49297.15 |   347.79 |   1120.94 |  97.777
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61209 |  22476 (0.36748) |  38687 |      46 |   30105.05 |   29324.00 |   212.64 |    781.04 |  97.406
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   537531 | 262118 (0.48803) | 274976 |     437 |  321251.95 |  319798.06 |  2173.41 |   1453.88 |  99.547
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   196046 |  97735 (0.49900) |  98128 |     183 |  191158.30 |  188928.43 |  1295.22 |   2229.87 |  98.833
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   152095 | 111893 (0.73605) |  40125 |      77 |  154214.79 |  152004.09 |   467.98 |   2210.70 |  98.566
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12638 |  10047 (0.79542) |   2584 |       7 |   21750.38 |   21465.15 |   400.00 |    285.23 |  98.689
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    12026 |  10285 (0.85673) |   1720 |      21 |   13095.86 |   12935.38 |   400.00 |    160.48 |  98.775
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5705 |   5218 (0.91576) |    480 |       7 |   10572.43 |   10492.00 |     0.00 |     80.42 |  99.239
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7636 |   7346 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1332042 | 544428           | 786119 |    1495 |  332102.85 |  322931.98 |   148.11 |   9170.87 |  97.239
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45809 |  23130           |  22470 |     209 |  542824.71 |  539549.84 |  5673.35 |   3274.86 |  99.397
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1377851 | 567558           | 808589 |    1704 |  874927.56 |  862481.83 |  5821.47 |  12445.73 |  98.578
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12445.73642941 BTC (1.422%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         694.10675000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11751.62967941 BTC (1.343%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4580858  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2554448  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1900.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1043.8  (54.9%)

10192  Economy / Gambling / Re: OneVillain.com Heads-Up Poker; 1% rake, Two 10BTC Freerolls this Sunday on: September 27, 2012, 07:14:39 PM
What's your policy on two players playing from the same IP address?

Some places (e.g. Seals) are OK with it, most places ban it in the client.

I don't want to get into trouble if it's the case that your policy prohibits it but your software allows it...
10193  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 27, 2012, 07:57:59 AM
Awesome stats, checking this thread regularly :-)
One suggestion: Could you add the number of bets to the graph? So one could see if the overall usage of the site increases/decreases and how the profit relates to the general usage?

The dotted lines show 1% and 1.5% of total amount bet so far (minus fees paid), so they indicate the amount that has been bet.  You'll notice the dotted line is steepest during the volatile period just after 08/09 for instance - lots of bet volume during that time.  Is that what you're looking for?
10194  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: September 27, 2012, 05:06:57 AM
Quote
Results: 2012-Sep-26 10:04pm (up to block 200693)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    21997 |      0 (0.00000) |  21630 |     367 |     192.84 |       0.01 |    32.56 |    192.83 |   0.010
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1797 |      0 (0.00000) |   1723 |      74 |      25.47 |       0.00 |     7.38 |     25.47 |   0.007
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     2386 |      0 (0.00000) |   2349 |      37 |      30.21 |       0.02 |     4.22 |     30.19 |   0.093
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     2537 |      1 (0.00040) |   2492 |      44 |      53.81 |       8.06 |     5.65 |     45.75 |  14.991
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2569 |      1 (0.00039) |   2532 |      36 |      95.91 |       4.26 |     7.40 |     91.65 |   4.443
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     5518 |      3 (0.00054) |   5503 |      12 |     381.23 |     303.32 |     1.29 |     77.90 |  79.564
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     7916 |      8 (0.00101) |   7886 |      22 |     647.01 |     124.39 |    55.64 |    522.61 |  19.226
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    10056 |     19 (0.00190) |   9981 |      56 |    1598.67 |    1274.64 |    44.25 |    324.03 |  79.731
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     9924 |     43 (0.00434) |   9867 |      14 |    1288.14 |    1302.34 |    13.11 |    -14.20 | 101.103
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    15481 |    118 (0.00763) |  15354 |       9 |    2661.23 |    2022.33 |     9.35 |    638.90 |  75.992
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    30566 |    453 (0.01483) |  30101 |      12 |    8470.30 |    7701.57 |     1.80 |    768.73 |  90.924
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    15145 |    347 (0.02292) |  14792 |       6 |    4704.47 |    4858.97 |    15.00 |   -154.50 | 103.284
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    22779 |    704 (0.03091) |  22071 |       4 |    5486.63 |    4647.48 |     9.24 |    839.15 |  84.706
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    15352 |    709 (0.04621) |  14635 |       8 |    6796.37 |    8066.89 |    24.99 |  -1270.51 | 118.694
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    15918 |    987 (0.06202) |  14927 |       4 |    4648.00 |    4126.54 |    31.20 |    521.46 |  88.781
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    21190 |   1979 (0.09347) |  19193 |      18 |   10118.08 |   10075.58 |     7.01 |     42.50 |  99.580
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    84817 |  10436 (0.12307) |  74358 |      23 |   10364.85 |    8947.55 |     0.00 |   1417.29 |  86.326
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    21163 |   3969 (0.18766) |  17181 |      13 |    8357.15 |    8611.34 |    14.50 |   -254.19 | 103.042
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    84241 |  20496 (0.24337) |  63722 |      23 |   50389.15 |   49274.62 |   347.79 |   1114.53 |  97.788
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    61101 |  22435 (0.36746) |  38620 |      46 |   30097.48 |   29319.69 |   212.64 |    777.79 |  97.416
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   536184 | 261463 (0.48803) | 274284 |     437 |  320595.71 |  319262.12 |  2173.41 |   1333.59 |  99.584
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   195906 |  97662 (0.49898) |  98061 |     183 |  191067.27 |  188814.77 |  1295.22 |   2252.50 |  98.821
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   151590 | 111497 (0.73589) |  40016 |      77 |  154152.63 |  151951.18 |   467.98 |   2201.44 |  98.572
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    12595 |  10012 (0.79536) |   2576 |       7 |   21731.73 |   21443.36 |   400.00 |    288.36 |  98.673
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    11751 |  10046 (0.85644) |   1684 |      21 |   12999.13 |   12844.27 |   400.00 |    154.86 |  98.809
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     5692 |   5205 (0.91557) |    480 |       7 |   10299.80 |   10200.01 |     0.00 |     99.79 |  99.031
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     7635 |   7345 (0.97986) |    151 |     139 |   16413.21 |   16135.89 |   239.21 |    277.32 |  98.310
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1328049 | 542836           | 783723 |    1490 |  331606.23 |  322485.68 |   147.61 |   9120.54 |  97.250
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    45757 |  23102           |  22446 |     209 |  542060.38 |  538835.62 |  5673.35 |   3224.76 |  99.405
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1373806 | 565938           | 806169 |    1699 |  873666.61 |  861321.31 |  5820.96 |  12345.30 |  98.587
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      12345.30604150 BTC (1.413%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         692.07885000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       11653.22719150 BTC (1.334%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  4563338  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 2546392  (55.8%)
Blockchain MB:  1892.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1040.8  (55.0%)

10195  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SourceForge mirror hacked. Bitcoin could be next target. on: September 27, 2012, 04:58:58 AM
The script checks whether the SHA256SUMS.asc file is correctly signed or not, and then ignores the result and continues whether or not the signature is valid.
10196  Economy / Gambling / Re: [ANN] Clone Dice - A Blatant and Unashamed Clone of Satoshidice ;) on: September 26, 2012, 11:06:03 PM
The minimum bet is biggest on the game with the highest payout.  Is that intentional?  Seems backwards to me.
10197  Economy / Gambling / Re: [ANN] Clone Dice - A Blatant and Unashamed Clone of Satoshidice ;) on: September 26, 2012, 11:04:08 PM

yawn

Man... if you're going to rip off my site, at least make a better looking one. Yours is an uglier version with a chat window and no ability to bet over 1btc   Cry



It's the "myspace" of gambling sites.  Smiley
10198  Economy / Gambling / Re: [ANN] BTCDice.com - The Best Bitcoin Game in the World! - Better Payouts on: September 26, 2012, 11:02:42 PM
Instead of telling you how to run your game like Dooglus thinks he has some right to do to me

I don't tell you how to run your game.  I point out where I find your site either misleading or just plain incorrect.  It's up to you whether you want to listen or not.  Run it however you like; I don't care.

I've never played your game and don't intend to.  I use SatoshiDice myself since they have a proven history of being reputable.  You might just disappear one day and not pay out pending bets, whereas I trust that SatoshiDice won't.  I might be wrong with that - it's a personal choice who to trust.

If you prefer that I don't point out errors on your site when I see them, that's easy enough for me to accommodate.
10199  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: September 26, 2012, 06:16:31 AM
Depends on what?! Come on man, we GOTTA KNOW! I got my finger ready to place the bet as soon as someone can tell me the outcome of the bet before I place it.

Depends on the day's secret, and your transaction ID.  I wonder how many people have access to the daily secrets before they're published.
10200  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: Dank Bank Deposits - low risk, dank soul guarantee - 1.5%-2.5% weekly on: September 26, 2012, 12:16:38 AM
No, it operates on karma because it will continue to thrive as long as I stay on the path I'm on.  And it gives me actual incentive to not steal from my investors.  If I didn't believe in karma and didn't think it mattered to be an honest person, I could steal my clients funds without a second thought.  But that's not who I am.

You don't need to believe in karma or any kind of woo-woo to be a decent person and not steal from others.  Some people treat others well without needing a fear of punishment or "bad karma" to keep them from being dicks.  Imagine that!
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